Smooth Criminals in Colorado

63.2 36.3 26.2 53.2 65.3 32.0 65.0

66.3 68.9 35.2 25.1 32.5 54.0 42.4

77.5 123.2 66.3 92.7 56.9 77.1 27.5

69.2 73.8 71.5 58.5 67.2 78.6 33.2

74.9 45.1 132.1 104.7 63.2 59.6 75.7

39.2 69.9 87.5 56.0 154.2 85.5 77.5

84.7 24.2 37.5 41.1

Crime rates per 1000 population for a random sample of 46 Denver
neighborhoods

In chapter eight of our statistics class, we were able to calculate the intervals of
confidence for a range of data values. My partner and I looked at a sample size of 46
neighborhoods in a population of 1000 in differing neighborhoods in Colorado and
looked at the crime rate of this sample size. The average of this sample, the mean in
other words, was 64.16. This means that, on average, roughly 64 crimes in these
neighborhoods in Colorado get committed each year. The standard deviation of this
sample is 27.86. A standard deviation is a number that shows the spread of a data set.
Given that this number is large, that means the data is spread out. Relating to the topic,
it means that the number of crimes committed in these neighborhoods are very spread
out per 1000 people. We took the sample size of the 46 neighborhoods and subtracted
1 from that to get the degrees of freedom. 45 ended up being the degree of freedom for
our scenario. We used this number along with table 4 to find the critical values for 90%,
95%, and 99%. Given that our degree of freedom was quite high, it resulted in low
critical values. This means that the three confidence intervals are not going to be spread
out. Relating that back to our topic, it means that the crime rate numbers are not widely
spread out, but closer together.
We used table four in the back of our books to calculate the critical values to use
them in the equation to find our margin of error. We found that the critical value for 90%
confidence and a degree of freedom of 45 (our sample size minus one) is 1.678. Using
this same method for 95%, we got 2.014 and with a 99% confidence, we found 2.69.
We needed to find these in order to calculate our margin of error, which is necessary to
find the confidence intervals. Our confidence intervals where relatively low. This means
that our sample of crime rates in each city is not too spread out and in return our margin
of error will not be too spread out.
Maximal margin of error is the amount of error from the sample mean that is
𝑠
acceptable given a certain confidence value. We used the formula 𝐸 = 𝑡𝑐 × 𝑛to
√
calculate the margin of error, or E. We found the maximum margin of error for 90% to
be 6.97. This means with 90% certainty, we can assume the population mean is above
or below the population mean by 6.97. We also found the margin of error for 95% to be
8.36, and the margin of error for 99% to be 11.17. This means that in relation to the
sample mean, 64.16 crimes per 1000 people, we can estimate the population mean with
an interval to a certain degree confidence. Each one of these margin of errors
corresponds to a certain number of crimes per 1000 people in each of these cities.
Lastly, my partner and I wanted to figure out the confidence intervals for this
topic. We used a 90, 95, and 99 percent confidence level and went to table 4 to figure
out the numbers associated with it. By taking the degrees of freedom for each
percentage, we traced the number to the correct area to find the critical values. (written
in the previous paragraphs) Once we found the values, we used the margin of error
formula, E= t𝑐 s/√𝑛, to find the margin of error for each percentage. Once we found the
error, we were able to calculate the confidence intervals for each of the percentages.
Simply put, we took the mean, 64.16, and either added or subtracted the corresponding
margin of error to find the interval. For 90%, we had a confidence interval of 57.15 < m
< 71.13. This means that we can say with 90% confidence that the population average
crime rate falls between roughly 57 to 71. For 95%, our confidence interval was
calculated to be 55.8 < m < 72.52. In other words, we can say with 95% confidence that
the crime rate for the population falls between roughly 55 to 72. Finally, for 99% we had
a confidence interval of 52.99 < m < 75.33. This means that we can say with 99%
confidence that the population mean for crime rates falls between 52 and 75, roughly.
The reason the numbers are more spread out the farther we travel into percentages is
because as we get more confident with our estimation, we have to allow more room for
error in the data.
If my partner and I were given𝜎, we would have been able to find all of the
confidence intervals with slightly more confidence. We would have used table 3 instead
of table 4 to find the critical values without finding the degrees of freedom. Other than
this, all of the calculations are the same and we would just end up with a more accurate
estimate of the confidence intervals. In terms of our subject, it would have allowed us to
have a more accurate estimation of the crime rates in these different neighborhoods.