emporal statistical analysis enables you to examine and model the behavior of a variable in

a data set over time (e.g., to determine whether and how concentrations are changing over
time. The behavior of a variable in a data set over time can be modeled as a function of
previous data points of the same series, with or without extraneous, random influences (such
as an earthquake or a new release). Common temporal analyses discussed below include
time series plots, one-way ANOVA, sample autocorrelation, the rank von Neumann test,
seasonality correlations, or the seasonal Mann-Kendall test. Table F-4 includes information
about checking assumptions for multi-sample tests.

5.8.1 Time series plots

The time series plot provides a graphical view of the raw data. Time is plotted on the x-axis,
and the data series observation or observations (for multiple series) are plotted on the y-
axis. See Section 5.1.1: Time Series Methods of this document for a complete overview of
time series plots.

Example

5.8.2 One-way ANOVA

ANOVA is a general purpose statistical approach used to compare data from three or more
populations (with the data divided into one group/subset per population). Because of its
flexibility and generality, ANOVA has utility for spatial analyses (for example, measuring
contaminant level differences across multiple wells/sampling points), temporal analyses (for
example, evaluating seasonality or temporal correlations across sampling events), as well as
diagnostic testing (for example, testing for equal variances or identifying significant spatial
variation).

For temporal analysis, the statistical populations to be compared by ANOVA represent

distinct time periods, rather than distinct sampling points as in a spatial analysis. For
instance, in cases of apparent seasonality at an individual well, each season (for example,
spring or fall) is treated as a distinct population. In order to test for seasonality, each data
subset must include representative observations from each distinct season — with a
minimum of one sampling event per season collected over a period of at least three years.

When evaluating data sets for temporal patterns due to factors other than seasonality (but
which impact a set of wells in common), each sampling event is treated as a separate
population. The data are pooled across sampling points and then grouped/divided by
sampling event. The ANOVA then compares the average levels per sampling event to look
for differences between events that signify temporal patterns common to the set of wells.

In all parametric ANOVA analyses — regardless of how the data are grouped into subsets —
the test (parametric F-test) returns an F-ratio statistic and an associated p-value. A large F-
ratio (and small p-value) indicates that the observed differences between the subsets of data
are more than expected based on chance alone, whereas an F-ratio close to one (large p-
value) suggests that the differences may be due to random variation.

The Kruskal-Wallis test is a nonparametric counterpart to ANOVA that does not require
normality of the ANOVA residuals. In this version, ranks of the data are used instead of the
observed measurements, and an H-statistic is produced instead of an F-ratio, but the basic
thrust of the test is the same. Average ranks are computed for each group being compared.
If the differences in rank averages are larger than expected by random variation, the H-
statistic will be large (with correspondingly small p-value), indicating a probable difference in
the populations.
For diagnostic testing, one-way ANOVA can aid decisions about whether to
conduct interwell or intrawell tests by identifying the presence of significant spatial
variability among a group of sampling points. If the spatial variation is a natural
phenomenon, the ANOVA results can help justify use of intrawell groundwater tests.
Conversely, the lack of significant spatial variation can point to the use of interwell
upgradient-downgradient testing.

Another variation of ANOVA, Levene's test, can also diagnose whether or not multiple
populations have similar variances (see Chapter 11.2, Unified Guidance). In Levene’s test,
the absolute values of the residuals from a set of wells are treated as the ‘data’ in a standard
one-way ANOVA. This tests whether the typical deviations from the mean of each well differ
significantly among the wells, thus signifying differing levels of variance