completacion de datos mediante el metodo de los promedios

E1= dato faltante del año en la estacion 1

E2= dato faltante del año en la estacion 2
Ep1= promedio de los valores de la estacion 1
Ep2= promedio de los valores de la estacion 2

Años E1(mm) E2(mm)

E1= 310.060211 1970 145.3 138.3
1971 394.1 226.8
1972 312 98.7
1973 262.2 113.3
1974 201.1 193.6
1975 281.8 132.1
1976 246.5 202.4
1977 148.8
1978 321.7 151.6
1979 334.7 231.7
1980 392.3 229.1
1981 351.8 211
1982 406.8 125.5
1983 481.2 114
1984 469.1 162.2
1985 516.8 140.5
PROM. 341.16 163.725

metodo de razones normales

ESTACION PRECP. 1972 PRECP. PROMEDIO DE 30 AÑOS

A 412 399
B 517 530
C 389 400
X x 290

Px= 288.120138
 correlacion de 2 estaciones (a y b)
MES
AÑO ESTACION A (Y) ESTACION B (X)
1965 47 45
1966 52 51.1
1967 54.5 53
1968 59 54
1969 63 56
1970 72 63
1971 82 70.1
1972 80 41.2
1973 50.3 48
1974 60.4 57
1975 90.2
1976 70.1
1977 40.3
1978 60.5
1979 56.7

SUMA DE Y= 620.2
SUMA DE X= 538.4
SUMA DE XY= 33812.1
SUMA DE X2= 29630.66
SUMA DE Y2= 39819.5
PROMEDIO Y 62.02
PROMEDIO X 57.08
años r.c. 10

87134588.598
9334.5909711
r= 0.4505092953

calculo de los valores de los coeficientes de regresion

Y=a+bx entonces A=a+bB

a= 26.818970653 26.8189707
b= 0.6538081231

a=Yp-bXp
b= 0.6166963796

entonces a ecuacion sera:

Y=26.8189707+0.61669638*x

y1= 82.444984092
y2= 70.049386862
y3= 51.671834751
y4= 64.129101618
y5= 61.785655376
analisis de doble masa analisis de doble masa

ESTACION ACUMULADOS ESTACION

AÑO A B C D A B
1956 692.2 744.3 569.2 979.1 692.2 744.3
1957 552.2 602 460.1 787.2 1244.4 1346.3
1958 512.7 549.6 426.9 737.9 1757.1 1895.9
1959 414.1 446.6 322.5 589.4 2171.2 2342.5
1960 616.3 658.4 512.2 867.9 2787.5 3000.9
1961 534.4 778.6 588.1 1028.3 3321.9 3779.5
1962 328.3 480.9 379.4 637.6 3650.2 4260.4
1963 493 721.4 1118 952.5 4143.2 4981.8
1964 419.1 618 981 799 4562.3 5599.8
1965 317.5 622.4 892.4 622.7 4879.8 6222.2
1966 424 776.5 981 816.7 5303.8 6998.7
COMO SON 2 ESTACIONES Q SON LINEALES SE USA ESAS 2

PATRON = B+D/2

AÑO EST. PATRON Acum. P. Est. X Acum. X Acum. X

1956 861.7 861.7 569.2 569.2 8000
1957 694.6 1556.3 460.1 1029.3
7000
1958 643.75 2200.05 426.9 1456.2
1959 518 2718.05 322.5 1778.7 6000
1960 763.15 3481.2 512.2 2290.9 5000
1961 903.45 4384.65 588.1 2879
4000
1962 559.25 4943.9 379.4 3258.4
1963 836.95 5780.85 1118 4376.4 3000
1964 708.5 6489.35 981 5357.4 2000
1965 622.55 7111.9 892.4 6249.8
1000
1966 796.6 7908.5 981 7230.8
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4

analisis estadistico
analisis estadistico

años ene. feb, mar. abr. may. jun. jul.

1952 2.97 16.64 18.05 4.54 2.42 1.88 1.3
1953 3.83 17.21 18.38 4.23 2.57 1.66 1.26
1954 7.68 28.9 32.59 30.12 15.12 14.32 14.5
1955 35.41 36.18 34.51 21.89 18.67 17.23 17.23

Q meses
2.97 1 Q
40
16.64 2
18.05 3 35
4.54 4 30
2.42 5 25
1.88 6 20
1.3 7
15
1.27 8
10
1.09 9
1.22 10 5
4.38 11 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
4.48 12
3.83 13 Q
17.21 14
18.38 15
4.23 16
2.57 17
1.66 18 1ra serie 2da serie
1.26 19 Q meses Q
1.07 20 2.97 1 28.9
0.95 21 16.64 2 32.59
0.99 22 18.05 3 30.12
2.08 23 4.54 4 15.12
2.52 24 2.42 5 14.32
7.68 25 1.88 6 14.5
28.9 26 1.3 7 15.2
32.59 27 1.27 8 16.4
30.12 28 1.09 9 17.8
15.12 29 1.22 10 22.6
14.32 30 4.38 11 30.22
14.5 31 4.48 12 35.41
15.2 32 3.83 13 36.18
16.4 33 17.21 14 34.51
17.8 34 18.38 15 21.89
22.6 35 4.23 16 18.67
30.22 36 2.57 17 17.93
35.41 37 1.66 18 17.23
36.18 38 1.26 19 16.77
34.51 39 1.07 20 17.06
21.89 40 0.95 21 18.28
18.67 41 0.99 22 19.62
17.93 42 2.08 23 20.81
17.23 43 2.52 24
16.77 44 7.68 25
17.06 45
18.28 46
19.62 47
20.81 48

1ra serie 2da serie

N 25 23
Xp 4.99 22.27
S 5.83 7.42

consistencia en la media

Sp= 6.64
Sd= 1.917

calculamos t stdent calculado

tc= 9.01

DE TABLA DE T STUDENT CON SIGNIFICACION =5%

Tt= 2.01

G.L.= 46

COMO Tc>Tt

por lo tanto no es consistente

en la media para el nivel de significancion del 5%

consistencia en la desviacion estandar :

S1^2>S2^2 >>>> Fc= 0.617

S2^2>S1^2 >>>>> Fc= 1.620

como : S2>S1 usamos el segundo

 Fc= 1.62
de tabla Ft
G.L. numerador = 22
G.L. denominador = 24

hallamos Ft= 2

vemos queFc<Ft

por lo tanto la informacion es consistente

correccion de la informacion

si se corrige la primera serie ( 2da serie consistente)

X1c= ((X1-Xp1)/S1)*S2+Xp2

si se corrige la segunda serie ( 1ra serie consistente)

X2c= ((X2-Xp2)/S2)*S1+Xp1

como nos salio que S2>S1

se corrige la primera serie

t X1 X1c
1 2.97 19.70
2 16.64 37.10
3 18.05 38.89
4 4.54 21.70
5 2.42 19.00
6 1.88 18.31
7 1.3 17.57
8 1.27 17.54
9 1.09 17.31
10 1.22 17.47
11 4.38 21.49
12 4.48 21.62
13 3.83 20.79
14 17.21 37.82
15 18.38 39.31
16 4.23 21.30
 17 2.57 19.19
18 1.66 18.03
19 1.26 17.52
20 1.07 17.28
21 0.95 17.13
22 0.99 17.18
23 2.08 18.57
24 2.52 19.13
25 7.68 25.69

años ene. feb, mar. abr. may.

1952 19.70 37.10 38.89 21.70 19.00
1953 20.79 37.82 39.31 21.30 19.19
1954 25.69 28.9 32.59 30.12 15.12
1955 35.41 36.18 34.51 21.89 18.67

Q meses
19.70 1
37.10 2
38.89 3
21.70 4
19.00 5
18.31 6
17.57 7
17.54 8
17.31 9
17.47 10
21.49 11
21.62 12
20.79 13
37.82 14
39.31 15
21.30 16
19.19 17
18.03 18
17.52 19
17.28 20
17.13 21
17.18 22
18.57 23
19.13 24
25.69 25
28.9 26
32.59 27
30.12 28
15.12 29
14.32 30
14.5 31 datos ya corregidos
15.2 32 45.00
16.4 33 40.00
17.8 34 35.00
22.6 35 30.00
30.22 36 25.00
35.41 37 20.00
36.18 38
15.00
34.51 39
10.00
21.89 40
5.00
18.67 41
0.00
17.93 42 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
17.23 43
Q
16.77 44
17.06 45
18.28 46
19.62 47
20.81 48
ACUMULADOS ESTACION PROMEDIO ACUM. Chart Title
C D A,B,C,D PROM.
10000
569.2 979.1 746.2 746.2
9000
1029.3 1766.3 600.375 1346.575 8000
1456.2 2504.2 556.775 1903.35 7000
6000
1778.7 3093.6 443.15 2346.5 5000
2290.9 3961.5 663.7 3010.2 4000
3000
2879 4989.8 732.35 3742.55 2000
3258.4 5627.4 456.55 4199.1 1000
4376.4 6579.9 821.225 5020.325 0

5357.4 7378.9 704.275 5724.6

6249.8 8001.6 613.75 6338.35
7230.8 8818.3 749.55 7087.9

A B C D

cum. X
000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

ago. set. oct. nov. dic.

1.27 1.09 1.22 4.38 4.48
1.07 0.95 0.99 2.08 2.52
15.2 16.4 17.8 22.06 30.22
 16.77 17.06 18.28 19.62 20.81

21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

2da serie
meses (xi-Xp)^2
1 4.06748224 44.0030338
2 135.79707 106.574203
3 170.647194 61.6771208
4 0.19963024 51.072773
5 6.58846224 63.1472078
6 9.65220624 60.3188599
7 13.5924942 49.9357295
8 13.8146022 34.4160773
9 15.1850502 19.9498164
10 14.1887822 0.11120775
11 0.36820624 63.2578164
12 0.25684624 172.751021
13 1.33818624 193.584877
14 149.406618 149.90276
15 179.377806 0.14176862
16 0.57274624 12.9349686
17 5.84092224 18.8054208
18 11.0675982 25.3665512
19 13.8890382 30.2117512
20 15.3413222 27.1078686
21 16.2957542 15.8923556
 22 15.9744102 7.00407732
23 8.44948624 2.12145558
6.08510224
7.25332624

33.9687643 55.0131237
5.83 7.42
 0.91666667

si se corriguera la 2da serie

t X1 X1c
1 28.9 10.20
2 32.59 13.10
3 30.12 11.16
4 15.12 -0.63
5 14.32 -1.26
6 14.5 -1.12
7 15.2 -0.57
8 16.4 0.38
9 17.8 1.48
10 22.6 5.25
11 30.22 11.24
12 35.41 15.31
13 36.18 15.92
14 34.51 14.61
15 21.89 4.69
16 18.67 2.16
 17 17.93 1.58
18 17.23 1.03
19 16.77 0.67
20 17.06 0.90
21 18.28 1.85
22 19.62 2.91
23 20.81 3.84

jun. jul. ago. set. oct. nov. dic.

18.31 17.57 17.54 17.31 17.47 21.49 21.62
18.03 17.52 17.28 17.13 17.18 18.57 19.13
14.32 14.5 15.2 16.4 17.8 22.06 30.22
17.23 17.23 16.77 17.06 18.28 19.62 20.81

Q meses
2.97 1
16.64 2
18.05 3
4.54 4
2.42 5
1.88 6
1.3 7
1.27 8 Q
1.09 9 20
1.22 10
4.38 11 15
4.48 12
3.83 13 10
17.21 14
18.38 15 5
4.23 16
2.57 17 0
1.66 18 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

1.26 19 -5
1.07 20 Q
0.95 21
0.99 22
2.08 23
2.52 24
7.68 25
10.20 26
13.10 27
 11.16 28
-0.63 29
-1.26 30
-1.12 31
datos ya corregidos -0.57 32
0.38 33
1.48 34
5.25 35
11.24 36
15.31 37
15.92 38
14.61 39
4.69 40
2.16 41
1.58 42
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 1.03 43
0.67 44
Q
0.90 45
1.85 46
2.91 47
3.84 48
Chart Title

B C D
 Q

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Q
 AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR
1960 25.25 21.7 13.36 5.21
1961 15.42 19.13 39.66 7.44
1962 21.66 39.24 46.05 30.25
1963 13.25 53.98 39.67 36.3
1964 15.4 47.47 56.89 39.1
1965 50.86 49.28 62.13 27.52
1966 53.84 55.16 70.14 35.98
1967 21.66 39.24 46.05 30.25

Q T (xi-Xp)^2
25.25 1 145.49888
21.7 2 243.743651
13.36 3 573.712276
5.21 4 1030.55713
6.5 5 949.397318
5.87 6 988.617705
6.28 7 963.003126
9.27 8 786.370122
9.54 9 771.300184
10.89 10 698.137497
11.49 11 666.790747
12.15 12 633.140922
15.42 13 479.272434
19.13 14 330.59573
39.66 15 5.51173442
7.44 16 892.353809
11.86 17 647.819151
14.27 18 530.947205
16.95 19 414.622922
17.69 20 385.03433
19.45 21 319.061464
31.49 22 33.8990803
25.1 23 149.140068
16.26 24 443.198984
21.66 25 244.994234
39.24 26 3.71605942
46.05 27 76.3475469
30.25 28 49.8759636
15.96 29 455.920359
24.94 30 153.073601
26.27 31 121.932205
28.73 32 73.6557303
31.47 33 34.1323719
33.55 34 14.1548386
45.19 35 62.0582886
40.15 36 8.05258859
13.25 37 578.99388
53.98 38 277.812501
39.67 39 5.55878859
36.3 40 1.02473442
28.4 41 79.4289428
40 42 7.22377609
41.22 43 15.2701844
43.26 44 35.3752344
45.29 45 63.6438303
46.73 46 88.6932303
47.93 47 112.73573
20.1 48 296.262984
15.4 49 480.148526
47.47 50 103.179039
56.89 51 383.286664
39.1 52 3.19590109
28.5 53 77.6564844
50.34 54 169.721184
50.79 55 181.648622
52.41 56 227.940797
53.25 57 254.010547
54.81 58 306.169797
55.7 59 338.107818
44.7 60 54.5782344
50.86 61 183.540401
49.28 62 143.226043
62.13 63 615.918647
27.52 64 95.8889761
18.6 65 350.149859
59.02 66 471.224601
60.07 67 517.913289
62.19 68 618.900372
63.61 69 691.569464
65.03 70 768.271355
67.06 71 884.926151
41.5 72 17.5369011
53.84 73 273.165143
55.16 74 318.540693
70.14 75 1077.65843
 35.98 76 1.77500109
42.8 77 30.1149428
71.14 78 1144.31385
72.37 79 1229.04291
74.69 80 1397.09308
75.14 81 1430.93552
76.36 82 1524.72353
81.45 83 1948.1373
32.31 84 25.0229219
21.66 85 244.994234
39.24 86 3.71605942
46.05 87 76.3475469
30.25 88 49.8759636
27.96 89 87.4653594
24.94 90 153.073601
26.27 91 121.932205
28.73 92 73.6557303
31.47 93 34.1323719
33.55 94 14.1548386
45.19 95 62.0582886
97.24 96 3591.33023
408.354037

Xp= 37.31 m3/s S= 20.21

del grafico sabemos que

Tmt=14.601+0.4683t

r= 0.646

Tc= 8.21

el valor teorico Tt lo obtenemos de la tabla de distribucion t de student con:

nivel de segnificacion 5%
grados de libertad 96-2=94
obtenemos Tt=1.986

como Tc>Tt la tendencia en la media si es significativa para 5%

eliminacion de laq tendencia en la media:

la serie sin tendencia en la media Yt la hallamos aplicando

Yt=Xt-Tmt
Yt=Xt-(14.601+04683t)

T Q Qc
1 25.25 10.1807
2 21.7 6.1624
3 13.36 -2.6459
4 5.21 -11.2642
5 6.5 -10.4425
6 5.87 -11.5408
7 6.28 -11.5991
8 9.27 -9.0774
9 9.54 -9.2757
10 10.89 -8.394
11 11.49 -8.2623
12 12.15 -8.0706
13 15.42 -5.2689
14 19.13 -2.0272
15 39.66 18.0345
16 7.44 -14.6538
17 11.86 -10.7021
18 14.27 -8.7604
19 16.95 -6.5487
20 17.69 -6.277
21 19.45 -4.9853
22 31.49 6.5864
23 25.1 -0.2719
24 16.26 -9.5802
25 21.66 -4.6485
26 39.24 12.4632
27 46.05 18.8049
28 30.25 2.5366
29 15.96 -12.2217
30 24.94 -3.71
31 26.27 -2.8483
32 28.73 -0.8566
33 31.47 1.4151
34 33.55 3.0268
35 45.19 14.1985
36 40.15 8.6902
37 13.25 -18.6781
38 53.98 21.5836
39 39.67 6.8053
40 36.3 2.967
41 28.4 -5.4013
42 40 5.7304
43 41.22 6.4821
44 43.26 8.0538
45 45.29 9.6155
46 46.73 10.5872
47 47.93 11.3189
48 20.1 -16.9794
49 15.4 -22.1477
50 47.47 9.454
51 56.89 18.4057
52 39.1 0.1474
53 28.5 -10.9209
54 50.34 10.4508
55 50.79 10.4325
56 52.41 11.5842
57 53.25 11.9559
58 54.81 13.0476
59 55.7 13.4693
60 44.7 2.001
61 50.86 7.6927
62 49.28 5.6444
63 62.13 18.0261
64 27.52 -17.0522
65 18.6 -26.4405
66 59.02 13.5112
67 60.07 14.0929
68 62.19 15.7446
69 63.61 16.6963
70 65.03 17.648
71 67.06 19.2097
72 41.5 -6.8186
73 53.84 5.0531
74 55.16 5.9048
75 70.14 20.4165
76 35.98 -14.2118
77 42.8 -7.8601
78 71.14 20.0116
79 72.37 20.7733
80 74.69 22.625
81 75.14 22.6067
82 76.36 23.3584
83 81.45 27.9801
84 32.31 -21.6282
85 21.66 -32.7465
86 39.24 -15.6348
87 46.05 -9.2931
88 30.25 -25.5614
89 27.96 -28.3197
90 24.94 -31.808
91 26.27 -30.9463
92 28.73 -28.9546
93 31.47 -26.6829
94 33.55 -25.0712
95 45.19 -13.8995
96 97.24 37.6822

T Qc
1 69.2960706
2 56.6721431
3 28.9999084
4 1.92457935
5 4.50603949
6 1.0556103
7 0.87245449
8 8.79464996
9 8.17166889
10 10.9416256
11 11.3553755
12 11.9576219
13 24.2561631
14 32.2889692
15 82.0010787
16 1.00074724
17 10.7929056
18 15.6043624
19 21.0848687
20 21.7581307
21 24.9589129
22 53.6331338
23 36.6385341
24 13.57293
25 27.8024031
26 62.8094722
27 75.7833047
28 42.501661
29 12.3091712
30 29.7223838
31 31.4852473
32 35.5598617
33 40.2072994
34 43.5045108
35 66.3595442
36 55.0906791
37 4.7752429
38 74.9106901
39 49.1670509
40 42.4807737
41 27.9032853
42 47.2945867
43 48.60404
44 51.3419244
45 54.062389
46 55.7550799
47 57.0296934
48 7.73435998
49 3.71983457
50 51.6516176
51 65.2290816
52 37.5358602
53 20.7480496
54 53.163511
55 53.1357545
56 54.882592
57 55.4463669
58 57.1021996
59 57.7418118
60 40.3473024
61 47.6442332
62 44.8931944
63 61.5228563
64 14.4097564
65 1.8004819
66 55.4589668
67 56.2402387
68 58.4586104
69 59.7368233
70 61.0150363
71 63.1125304
72 28.1543398
73 43.4017982
74 44.4281846
75 61.9162795
76 20.1856071
77 27.8400606
78 61.4283333
79 62.3462603
80 64.5777498
81 64.5556964
82 65.4615724
83 71.0311975
84 11.2480803
85 1.52587457
86 20.2260848
87 27.1564963
88 9.37798046
89 6.36362246
90 2.55149723
91 3.49319041
92 5.66978354
93 8.15236958
94 9.91368662
95 22.1224758
96 78.4925988
MAY JUN JUL AGOST SET OCT NOV DIC
6.5 5.87 6.28 9.27 9.54 10.89 11.49 12.15
11.86 14.27 16.95 17.69 19.45 31.49 25.1 16.26
15.96 24.94 26.27 28.73 31.47 33.55 45.19 40.15
28.4 40 41.22 43.26 45.29 46.73 47.93 20.1
28.5 50.34 50.79 52.41 53.25 54.81 55.7 44.7
18.6 59.02 60.07 62.19 63.61 65.03 67.06 41.5
42.8 71.14 72.37 74.69 75.14 76.36 81.45 32.31
27.96 24.94 26.27 28.73 31.47 33.55 45.19 97.24
 Q
120

100

80

60
f(x) = 0.4682676343x + 14.6013114035
R² = 0.4166900696
m3/s 40

20

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Q Li near (Q) Li near (Q)

ucion t de student con:

 1 2 3 4 5 6
ENE 10.1807 -5.2689 -4.6485 -18.6781 -22.1477 7.6927
FEB 6.1624 -2.0272 12.4632 21.5836 9.454 5.6444
MAR -2.6459 18.0345 18.8049 6.8053 18.4057 18.0261
ABR -11.2642 -14.6538 2.5366 2.967 0.1474 -17.0522
MAY -10.4425 -10.7021 -12.2217 -5.4013 -10.9209 -26.4405
JUN -11.5408 -8.7604 -3.71 5.7304 10.4508 13.5112
JUL -11.5991 -6.5487 -2.8483 6.4821 10.4325 14.0929
AGOT -9.0774 -6.277 -0.8566 8.0538 11.5842 15.7446
SET -9.2757 -4.9853 1.4151 9.6155 11.9559 16.6963
OCT -8.394 6.5864 3.0268 10.5872 13.0476 17.648
NOV -8.2623 -0.2719 14.1985 11.3189 13.4693 19.2097
DIC -8.0706 -9.5802 8.6902 -16.9794 2.001 -6.8186
XP= -6.1857833 -3.70455 3.07085 3.50708333 5.65665 6.49621667

CALCULAMOS LA DISPERSION PARA CADA SERIE ANUAL

T S
1 7.16944301
2 8.7428797
3 8.96507722
4 11.724488
5 11.6963221
6 15.178405
7 16.7590464
8 19.4566589
del grafico optenemos
Tst=4.70936+1.7227t
r= 0.97928545

Tc= 11.8465802

el valor teorico Tt lo optenemos de la tabla de distribucion t de student con

nivel de significacion 5%
grados de libertad 8-2=6
obtenemos: Tt=2.447
como: Tc>Tt la tendencia en la desviacion estandar SI es significativa para =5%

ELIMINACION DE LA TENDENCIA EN LA DISVIACION ESTANDAR

para eliminar la tendencia en la desviacion estandar se aplica la siguiente relacion

Zti=Yti/Tst

i varia de 1 a 12 meses
t varia de 1 a 8 años}el valor de Z para el mes 1 del año 1

Tts=4.1917+1.894t
Yti=10.18

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
ENE 10.18 -5.27 -4.65 -18.68 -22.15 7.69
FEB 6.16 -2.03 12.46 21.58 9.45 5.64
MAR -2.65 18.03 18.80 6.81 18.41 18.03
ABR -11.26 -14.65 2.54 2.97 0.15 -17.05
MAY -10.44 -10.70 -12.22 -5.40 -10.92 -26.44
JUN -11.54 -8.76 -3.71 5.73 10.45 13.51
JUL -11.60 -6.55 -2.85 6.48 10.43 14.09
AGOT -9.08 -6.28 -0.86 8.05 11.58 15.74
SET -9.28 -4.99 1.42 9.62 11.96 16.70
OCT -8.39 6.59 3.03 10.59 13.05 17.65
NOV -8.26 -0.27 14.20 11.32 13.47 19.21
DIC -8.07 -9.58 8.69 -16.98 2.00 -6.82

rcuacion de correccion sabemos Xp

Xtic=Xp+Szti
reemplazando en la ecuacion de correccion
1 2
69.2960706 24.2561631
56.6721431 32.2889692
28.9999084 82.0010787
1.92457935 1.00074724
4.50603949 10.7929056
1.0556103 15.6043624
0.87245449 21.0848687
8.79464996 21.7581307
 8.17166889 24.9589129
10.9416256 53.6331338
11.3553755 36.6385341
11.9576219 13.57293

AÑO ene feb

1960 69.2960706 56.6721431
1961 24.2561631 32.2889692
1962 27.8024031 62.8094722
1963 4.7752429 74.9106901
1964 3.71983457 51.6516176
1965 47.6442332 44.8931944
1966 43.4017982 44.4281846
1967 1.52587457 20.2260848

Qc
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Qc
 7 8 (xi-Xp)^2 (xi-Xp)^2 (xi-Xp)^2 (xi-Xp)^2 (xi-Xp)^2
5.0531 -32.7465 267.861777 2.44719092 59.58836442 492.18236 773.081879
5.9048 -15.6348 152.477632 2.81350302 88.21623852 326.760455 14.419867
20.4165 -9.2931 12.530774 472.586295 247.5603294 10.8782332 162.538276
-14.2118 -25.5614 25.7903158 119.886076 0.285423062 0.29169001 30.3518356
-7.8601 -28.3197 18.1196368 48.965706 233.8620855 79.3592936 274.815164
20.0116 -31.808 28.6762035 25.5616192 45.97992672 4.943137 22.9838742
20.7733 -30.9463 29.3039973 8.08918922 35.03633672 8.85072417 22.8087432
22.625 -28.9546 8.36144695 6.617499 15.4248635 20.6726324 35.135849
22.6067 -26.6829 9.54758501 1.64032056 2.741508063 37.3127542 39.6805506
23.3584 -25.0712 4.87622085 105.903652 0.001940403 50.128052 54.6261419
27.9801 -13.8995 4.31192147 11.783086 123.8245945 61.0244796 61.0375
-21.6282 37.6822 3.55253387 34.5232629 31.57709442 419.695999 13.3637769
10.4191167 -19.26965
51.4009131 76.4379454 80.37260957 137.463619 136.803951

S= 7.17 8.7428797 8.965077221 11.724488 11.6963221

S
25

20
f(x) = 1.7226566893x + 4.7095849357
15 R² = 0.9589641081

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
S Li near (S) Linea r (S)
 7 8 Tst= 6.4323 8.155 9.8777 11.6004
5.05 -32.75 1.583 -0.646 -0.471 -1.610
5.90 -15.63 0.958 -0.249 1.262 1.861
20.42 -9.29 -0.411 2.211 1.904 0.587
-14.21 -25.56 -1.751 -1.797 0.257 0.256
-7.86 -28.32 -1.623 -1.312 -1.237 -0.466
20.01 -31.81 Zti= -1.794 -1.074 -0.376 0.494
20.77 -30.95 -1.803 -0.803 -0.288 0.559
22.63 -28.95 -1.411 -0.770 -0.087 0.694
22.61 -26.68 -1.442 -0.611 0.143 0.829
23.36 -25.07 -1.305 0.808 0.306 0.913
27.98 -13.90 -1.285 -0.033 1.437 0.976
-21.63 37.68 -1.255 -1.175 0.880 -1.464

37.31 m3/s S= 20.21 m3/s

en la ecuacion de correccion
3 4 5 6 7 8
27.8024031 4.7752429 3.71983457 47.6442332 43.4017982 1.525874574
62.8094722 74.9106901 51.6516176 44.8931944 44.4281846 20.22608478
75.7833047 49.1670509 65.2290816 61.5228563 61.9162795 27.15649631
42.501661 42.4807737 37.5358602 14.4097564 20.1856071 9.377980462
12.3091712 27.9032853 20.7480496 1.8004819 27.8400606 6.363622461
29.7223838 47.2945867 53.163511 55.4589668 61.4283333 2.551497234
31.4852473 48.60404 53.1357545 56.2402387 62.3462603 3.493190411
35.5598617 51.3419244 54.882592 58.4586104 64.5777498 5.66978354
40.2072994 54.062389 55.4463669 59.7368233 64.5556964 8.152369579
43.5045108 55.7550799 57.1021996 61.0150363 65.4615724 9.913686618
66.3595442 57.0296934 57.7418118 63.1125304 71.0311975 22.12247583
55.0906791 7.73435998 40.3473024 28.1543398 11.2480803 78.49259876

mar abr may jun jul agot set oct

28.9999084 1.92457935 4.50603949 1.0556103 0.87245449 8.794649957 8.17166889 10.9416256
82.0010787 1.00074724 10.7929056 15.6043624 21.0848687 21.75813067 24.9589129 53.6331338
75.7833047 42.501661 12.3091712 29.7223838 31.4852473 35.55986173 40.2072994 43.5045108
49.1670509 42.4807737 27.9032853 47.2945867 48.60404 51.34192441 54.062389 55.7550799
65.2290816 37.5358602 20.7480496 53.163511 53.1357545 54.88259204 55.4463669 57.1021996
61.5228563 14.4097564 1.8004819 55.4589668 56.2402387 58.45861039 59.7368233 61.0150363
61.9162795 20.1856071 27.8400606 61.4283333 62.3462603 64.57774979 64.5556964 65.4615724
27.1564963 9.37798046 6.36362246 2.55149723 3.49319041 5.66978354 8.15236958 9.91368662
 (xi-Xp)^2 (xi-Xp)^2 (xi-Xp)^2
1.431572367 28.7941349 181.625486
0.725591634 20.379055 13.2121345
132.9382097 99.9476735 99.5315499
554.5279275 606.682056 39.5861181
1084.827305 334.129762 81.903405
49.20999117 92.0157365 157.210221
57.70959767 107.209113 136.344155
85.53259428 148.983588 93.7982565
104.0417 148.537188 54.9562756
124.3622715 167.425053 33.6579824
161.6326585 308.388136 28.838511
177.2843429 1027.03051 3243.51322

230.3839784 280.865636 378.561574

15.178405 16.7590464 19.4566589

13.3231 15.0458 16.7685 18.4912
-1.662 0.511 0.301 -1.771
0.710 0.375 0.352 -0.846
1.381 1.198 1.218 -0.503
0.011 -1.133 -0.848 -1.382
-0.820 -1.757 -0.469 -1.532
0.784 0.898 1.193 -1.720
0.783 0.937 1.239 -1.674
0.869 1.046 1.349 -1.566
0.897 1.110 1.348 -1.443
0.979 1.173 1.393 -1.356
1.011 1.277 1.669 -0.752
0.150 -0.453 -1.290 2.038
nov dic
11.35537547 11.9576219
36.63853408 13.57293
66.3595442 55.0906791
57.0296934 7.73435998
57.74181177 40.3473024
63.1125304 28.1543398
71.03119752 11.2480803
22.12247583 78.4925988
AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN
1960 25.25 21.7 13.36 5.21 6.5 5.87
1961 15.42 19.13 39.66 7.44 11.86 14.27
1962 21.66 39.24 46.05 30.25 15.96 24.94
1963 13.25 53.98 39.67 36.3 28.4 40
1964 15.4 47.47 56.89 39.1 28.5 50.34
1965 50.86 49.28 62.13 27.52 18.6 59.02
1966 53.84 55.16 70.14 35.98 42.8 71.14
1967 21.66 39.24 46.05 30.25 27.96 24.94

Q T (xi-Xp)^2 Xp S
25.25 1 145.49888 37.31 20.21
21.7 2 243.743651 m3/s m3/s
13.36 3 573.712276
5.21 4 1030.55713 Q vs T
6.5 5 949.397318 120
5.87 6 988.617705
100
6.28 7 963.003126
9.27 8 786.370122 80
9.54 9 771.300184
60
10.89 10 698.137497 f(x) = 0.4682676343x + 14.6013114035
R² = 0.4166900696
11.49 11 666.790747 40
12.15 12 633.140922
20
15.42 13 479.272434
19.13 14 330.59573 0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73
39.66 15 5.51173442
7.44 16 892.353809 Q Li nea r (Q)
11.86 17 647.819151
14.27 18 530.947205
16.95 19 414.622922 del grafico obtenemos
17.69 20 385.03433
19.45 21 319.061464 Tmt=14.601+0.4683t
31.49 22 33.8990803
25.1 23 149.140068 r= 0.646
16.26 24 443.198984
21.66 25 244.994234
39.24 26 3.71605942 Tc= 8.195
46.05 27 76.3475469
30.25 28 49.8759636 el valor teorico Tt lo obtenemos de tabla de t de student
15.96 29 455.920359
24.94 30 153.073601 nivel de significacion 5%
26.27 31 121.932205 grados de libertad 96-2=94
28.73 32 73.6557303
31.47 33 34.1323719
33.55 34 14.1548386 Tt=x
45.19 35 62.0582886 Tt=1.987
40.15 36 8.05258859
13.25 37 578.99388 entoces Tc>Tt
53.98 38 277.812501 la tendencia en la media si es significativa para
39.67 39 5.55878859
36.3 40 1.02473442
28.4 41 79.4289428
40 42 7.22377609
41.22 43 15.2701844
43.26 44 35.3752344
45.29 45 63.6438303
46.73 46 88.6932303
47.93 47 112.73573
20.1 48 296.262984
15.4 49 480.148526
47.47 50 103.179039
56.89 51 383.286664
39.1 52 3.19590109
28.5 53 77.6564844
50.34 54 169.721184
50.79 55 181.648622
52.41 56 227.940797
53.25 57 254.010547
54.81 58 306.169797
55.7 59 338.107818
44.7 60 54.5782344
50.86 61 183.540401
49.28 62 143.226043
62.13 63 615.918647
27.52 64 95.8889761
18.6 65 350.149859
59.02 66 471.224601
60.07 67 517.913289
62.19 68 618.900372
63.61 69 691.569464
65.03 70 768.271355
67.06 71 884.926151
41.5 72 17.5369011
53.84 73 273.165143
55.16 74 318.540693
70.14 75 1077.65843
35.98 76 1.77500109
42.8 77 30.1149428
71.14 78 1144.31385
72.37 79 1229.04291
74.69 80 1397.09308
75.14 81 1430.93552
76.36 82 1524.72353
81.45 83 1948.1373
32.31 84 25.0229219
21.66 85 244.994234
39.24 86 3.71605942
46.05 87 76.3475469
30.25 88 49.8759636
27.96 89 87.4653594
24.94 90 153.073601
26.27 91 121.932205
28.73 92 73.6557303
31.47 93 34.1323719
33.55 94 14.1548386
45.19 95 62.0582886
97.24 96 3591.33023
 JUL AGOST SET OCT NOV DIC
6.28 9.27 9.54 10.89 11.49 12.15
16.95 17.69 19.45 31.49 25.1 16.26
26.27 28.73 31.47 33.55 45.19 40.15
41.22 43.26 45.29 46.73 47.93 20.1
50.79 52.41 53.25 54.81 55.7 44.7
60.07 62.19 63.61 65.03 67.06 41.5
72.37 74.69 75.14 76.36 81.45 32.31
26.27 28.73 31.47 33.55 45.19 97.24

eliminacion de la tedencia en la media

la serie sin tendencia en la media (Yt) la hallamos aplicando :
Q vs T
Yt=Xt-Tmt
Yt=Xt-(14.601+0.4683*t)

reemplazando tenemos los siguientes datos >>>>>>>>>>>>>

4.6013114035

33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Q Li nea r (Q)

emos de tabla de t de student

tabla ( interpolacion
 80 1.9901
94 x
120 1.9799

x= 1.987

n la media si es significativa para α=5%

 Yt AÑOS 1 2 3 4
10.18 10.18 -5.27 -4.65 -18.68
6.16 6.16 -2.03 12.46 21.58
hallamos aplicando : -2.65 -2.65 18.03 18.80 6.81
-11.26 -11.26 -14.65 2.54 2.97
-10.44 -10.44 -10.70 -12.22 -5.40
-11.54 -11.54 -8.76 -3.71 5.73
-11.60 -11.60 -6.55 -2.85 6.48
tos >>>>>>>>>>>>> -9.08 -9.08 -6.28 -0.86 8.05
-9.28 -9.28 -4.99 1.42 9.62
-8.39 -8.39 6.59 3.03 10.59
-8.26 -8.26 -0.27 14.20 11.32
-8.07 -8.07 -9.58 8.69 -16.98
-5.27 Xp= -6.19 -3.70 3.07 3.51
-2.03
18.03 267.86 2.45 59.59 492.18
-14.65 (xi-Xp)^2 ={ 152.48 2.81 88.22 326.76
-10.70 12.53 472.59 247.56 10.88
-8.76 25.79 119.89 0.29 0.29
-6.55 18.12 48.97 233.86 79.36
-6.28 28.68 25.56 45.98 4.94
-4.99 29.30 8.09 35.04 8.85
6.59 8.36 6.62 15.42 20.67
-0.27 9.55 1.64 2.74 37.31
-9.58 4.88 105.90 0.00 50.13
-4.65 4.31 11.78 123.82 61.02
12.46 3.55 34.52 31.58 419.70
18.80
2.54
-12.22 T S
 -3.71 1 7.17
-2.85 2 8.74
-0.86 3 8.97
1.42 4 11.72
3.03 5 11.70
14.20 6 15.18
8.69 7 16.76
-18.68 8 19.46
21.58
6.81
2.97
-5.40
5.73
6.48
8.05
9.62
10.59
11.32
-16.98
-22.15
9.45
18.41
0.15
-10.92
10.45
10.43
11.58
11.96
13.05
13.47
2.00
7.69
5.64
18.03
-17.05
-26.44
13.51
14.09
15.74
16.70
17.65
19.21
-6.82
5.05
5.90
 20.42
-14.21
-7.86
20.01
20.77
22.63
22.61
23.36
27.98
-21.63
-32.75
-15.63
-9.29
-25.56
-28.32
-31.81
-30.95
-28.95
-26.68
-25.07
-13.90
37.68
 5 6 7 8
-22.15 7.69 5.05 -32.75
9.45 5.64 5.90 -15.63
18.41 18.03 20.42 -9.29
0.15 -17.05 -14.21 -25.56
-10.92 -26.44 -7.86 -28.32
10.45 13.51 20.01 -31.81
10.43 14.09 20.77 -30.95
11.58 15.74 22.63 -28.95
11.96 16.70 22.61 -26.68
13.05 17.65 23.36 -25.07
13.47 19.21 27.98 -13.90
2.00 -6.82 -21.63 37.68
5.66 6.50 10.42 -19.27

773.08 1.43 28.79 181.63

14.42 0.73 20.38 13.21
162.54 132.94 99.95 99.53
30.35 554.53 606.68 39.59
274.82 1084.83 334.13 81.90
22.98 49.21 92.02 157.21
22.81 57.71 107.21 136.34
35.14 85.53 148.98 93.80
39.68 104.04 148.54 54.96
54.63 124.36 167.43 33.66
61.04 161.63 308.39 28.84
13.36 177.28 1027.03 3243.51

S
25.00

20.00
 S DEL GRAFICO OBTENEMOS QUE:
25.00 Tst=4.7096+1.7227*t
r=
20.00
f(x) = 1.7226566893x + 4.7095849357
15.00 R² = 0.9589641081

10.00

5.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
S Li near (S)
ELIMINACION DE LA TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIAC

para la eliminar la tendencia en la desviacion es

Zti=Yti/Tst
i varia de 1 a 12 meses
t varia de 1 a 8 años
el valor de Z para el mes 1 del año 1 Zti es
Tst=4.7096+1.7227*1
serie sin tendencia en la media y desviacion est
año Zti
1 1.58
1 0.96
1 -0.41
1 -1.75
1 -1.62
1 -1.79
1 -1.80
1 -1.41
1 -1.44
1 -1.30
1 -1.28
1 -1.25
2 -0.65
2 -0.25
2 2.21
2 -1.80
2 -1.31
2 -1.07
 EL GRAFICO OBTENEMOS QUE: reemplazando en la formula de Tc 2 -0.80
st=4.7096+1.7227*t 2 -0.77
0.979 Tc= 11.85 2 -0.61
2 0.81
el valor teorico Tt lo obtenemos de tabla 2 -0.03
nevel d significacion α=5% 2 -1.17
G.L.=8-2=6 3 -0.47
Tt= 2.447 3 1.26
tabla ( interpolacion 3 1.90
80 1.9901 3 0.26
94 x 3 -1.24
120 1.9799 3 -0.38
3 -0.29
x= 1.987 3 -0.09
3 0.14
como Tc>Tt la tendencia en la desviacion estandar 3 0.31
SI es significativapara α=5% 3 1.44
3 0.88
4 -1.61
4 1.86
4 0.59
4 0.26
4 -0.47
4 0.49
4 0.56
4 0.69
4 0.83
4 0.91
4 0.98
4 -1.46
5 -1.66
5 0.71
5 1.38
5 0.01
5 -0.82
5 0.78
5 0.78
5 0.87
5 0.90
5 0.98
5 1.01
5 0.15
6 0.51
6 0.38
6 1.20
6 -1.13
6 -1.76
6 0.90
6 0.94
6 1.05
6 1.11
6 1.17
6 1.28
6 -0.45
7 0.30
7 0.35
7 1.22
7 -0.85
7 -0.47
7 1.19
7 1.24
7 1.35
7 1.35
7 1.39
7 1.67
7 -1.29
8 -1.77
8 -0.85
8 -0.50
8 -1.38
8 -1.53
8 -1.72
8 -1.67
8 -1.57
8 -1.44
8 -1.36
8 -0.75
8 2.04
DE LA TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

r la tendencia en la desviacion estandar se aplica la siguiente relacion DETERMINACION DE LA SERIE CORREGIDA Xtic

Sabemos
Xp= 37.31 S=
ara el mes 1 del año 1 Zti es m3/s

ncia en la media y desviacion estandar reemplazando tenemos los caudales corregidos

Xtic T
69.30 1
56.67 2
29.00 3
1.92 4
4.51 5
1.06 6
0.87 7 90.00
8.79 8 80.00
8.17 9 70.00
10.94 10 60.00
11.36 11 50.00
11.96 12 40.00
24.26 13 30.00
32.29 14 20.00
82.00 15 10.00
1.00 16 0.00
10.79 17 1 5 9 13 17 21
15.60 18
 10.00
0.00
1 5 9 13 17 21

21.08 19
21.76 20
24.96 21
53.63 22
36.64 23
13.57 24
27.80 25
62.81 26
75.78 27
42.50 28
12.31 29
29.72 30
31.49 31
35.56 32
40.21 33
43.50 34
66.36 35
55.09 36
4.78 37
74.91 38
49.17 39
42.48 40
27.90 41
47.29 42
48.60 43
51.34 44
54.06 45
55.76 46
57.03 47
7.73 48
3.72 49
51.65 50
65.23 51
37.54 52
20.75 53
53.16 54
53.14 55
54.88 56
55.45 57
57.10 58
57.74 59
40.35 60
47.64 61
44.89 62
61.52 63
14.41 64
1.80 65
55.46 66
56.24 67
58.46 68
59.74 69
61.02 70
63.11 71
28.15 72
43.40 73
44.43 74
61.92 75
20.19 76
27.84 77
61.43 78
62.35 79
64.58 80
64.56 81
65.46 82
71.03 83
11.25 84
1.53 85
20.23 86
27.16 87
9.38 88
6.36 89
2.55 90
3.49 91
5.67 92
8.15 93
9.91 94
22.12 95
78.49 96
RIE CORREGIDA Xtic

20.21
m3/s Xtic=Xp+s*Zti

caudales corregidos

Q vs T
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00 66
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Col umn AT
10.00
0.00
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Col umn AT