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Source: Bloomberg and Bank Indonesia’s projection Source: WEO October 2018 and WTO September 2018
4
Monetary Policy Adjustment: Continuing, but Not as Tight as Predicted
• FFR is expected to increase 2x in 2019, lower from earlier prediction of 3x, due to US economic slowgdown.
• Global financial market uncertainty slightly eased, giving rise to Emerging Markets’ capital flows.
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• Remain vigilant on the possibility of ECB monetary policy adjustment process and interest rate hikes in the region.
US INFLATION EXPECTATION IS DECREASING, ALTHOUGH STILL HIGH FFR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 2X IN 2019
%(yoy, avg)
3 2018 2019
1.5
0.5
0
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18
Sumber: Consensus Forecast Source: Bloomberg, based on WIRP Implied Probability
Source: Consensus Forecasts
RISING CAPITAL INFLOWS IN THE EMERGING MARKETS CENTRAL BANKS PLAN TO INCREASE POLICY RATES
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
14Q1
14Q2
14Q3
14Q4
15Q1
15Q2
15Q3
15Q4
16Q1
16Q2
16Q3
16Q4
17Q1
17Q2
17Q3
17Q4
18Q1
18Q2
18Q3
18Q4
Residential Property Commercial Property Infrastructure Industrial Estate
6
Strong Regional Economic Growth
• Boosted by investment and government spending, amidst decreasing net export due to the
slowdown
Click in natural
to edit Masterresources’
title styleexport in Maluku, Papua, and Bali Nusa Tenggara.
• The role of manufacturing sector in boosting export is still concentrated in Java.
Sumatra
• 4,4% -
4,8%
Java
• 5,6% -
6,0%
Eastern • 3,8% -
& Other
Regions 4,2%
7
Inflation is Low and Stable in 2018 and Expected Within Target 3,5+1% in 2019
• Click
Inflation targets
to edit were title
Master achieved
stylein the last 4 consecutive INFLATION TARGET ACHIEVED IN 2018 AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN 2019
years; a reflection of Bank Indonesia’s consistency and 2017 2018 2019f
commitment to maintain macroeconomic stability.
CPI 3.61 3.13 3.5+1%
• Going forward, inflation is expected to remain under control Core 2.95 3.07 3.5+1%
within target, supported by manageable pressure from
demand side, volatile food and administered prices, inflation Adm. Prices 8.70 3.36 3.0+1%
expectation, and exchange rate stability. Volatile Food 0.71 3.39 4.0+1%
INFLATION WITHIN TARGETS IN THE LAST 4 YEARS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN 2019 ARE WELL ANCHORED
8
Regional Inflation Well Maintained
• Regional inflation well maintained in almost all regions.
• Click
Several
toregions recorded
edit Master titlehigh inflation, such as SulTeng, Kaltara, Kalteng, Papua, and PapBar, due to the effect from price
style
increase in several food commodity as well as impact from natural disasters.
Source: BPS
150 9
120,7
120 8
90 7
6,3
60 6
30 5
0 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
Source: Reuters, Data as of 24 January 2019 Source: Bank Indonesia 2016 2017 2018
11
Financial System Stability has been Well Maintained as Intermediation Improves
BANK CAPITAL REMAINS HIGH WITH AMPLE THE GROWTH OF CREDIT AND DEPOSIT CONTINUE HIGHER CREDIT & DEPOSIT GROWTH IN 2019 ARE
LIQUIDITY TO IMPROVE CONFIRMED BY BANK’S BUSINESS PLAN
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NON BANK FINANCING REMAINS HIGH CREDIT RISK HAS BEEN WELL MANAGED
November 2018
3 Policy Synergy between the • Monetary, fiscal and financial sector policies will
be oriented towards maintaining macroeconomic
Authorities is Key to Strengthen The and financial system stability.
Structure of The National Economy • Real sector and structural reform policies should
be oriented towards enhancing competitiveness,
productivity, investment, trade, employment, and
legal certainty.
14
Bank Indonesia’s Policy Mix Direction for 2019
Bank Indonesia will streghten its policy mix to enhance national economic resiliencies to confront the global
spillover
Click toover
editrisks...
Master title style
Click toSYNERGIC
edit MasterNATIONAL
title style POLICY MIX
TPI & TPID focus on “4K Program” • Crisis prevention and resolution Coordination between
(Available Supply, Affordable Prices, through KSSK. government ministries and
Smooth Distribution, and Effective • BI’s macroprudential – OJK’s agencies in order to develop
Communication). microprudential policy harmonization. the digital economy and
• BI-LPS coordination. finance ecosystem
Coordination between BI and
IMPROVING ECONOMIC
2 STRUCTURE
4 FINANCIAL MARKET
DEEPENING
OJK to ensure that
development of digital finance
in the payment system is
Quarterly Coordination Meeting Financial Market Deepening mutually beneficial with
focus on reducing current Coordination Forum (FK-PPK) that digital finance to boost
account deficit, investment focus on innovating various financial intermediation in the
financing, particularly for instruments for economic financing economy
infrastructure, and development through the financial markets, Establishment of National
of digital economy and finance. infrastructure development and Committees on development
broadening the investor base, while of digital economy and
finance.
ensuring regulatory harmony
20
BI Board of Governors (BOG) Decision on 16th & 17th January 2019