PROBABILITY

Mathematics of Chance
Syllabus IIT JEE : Addition and multiplication rules of probability, conditional probability,
independence of events, computation of probability of events using permutations and combinations.
FIRST LECTURE
1. General Introduction & Historical development

n ( A)
2. Classical definition of probability as P(A) = n (S)
and explanation of the term
Mutually exclusive / equally likely / exhaustive with examples

3. Explain general terminology of cards

4. odds in favour and odd against.

EXAMPLES :
Ex.1 4 Apples and 3 Oranges are randomly placed in a line. Find the chance that the two
extreme fruits are both oranges. [Ans. 1/7]

Ex.2(a) Two natural numbers are randomly selected from the set of first 20 natural numbers.
Find the Probability that
(A) their sum is odd (B) sum is even (C) selected pair is twin prime
[Ans. 10/19 ; 9/19 ; 2/95]
(b) 2 numbers are randomly selected from the set of first six natural numbers. Find
the probability that the selected pair is coprime. [Ans. 11/15 ]
Ex.3 What is the chance that the fourth power of an integer chosen randomly ends in the
digit six. [Ans. 4/10]
5R balls
3 balls are
Ex.4 Bag     find the odds against these being all Red.
drawn
4W balls
[Ans. 37 : 5 ]

Ex.5 A pair of dice has been rolled/ thrown/cast once. Find the probability that atleast one
of the dice shows up the face one. [Ans. 11/36]

Ex.6 A leap year is selected at random. Find the probability that it has
(A) 53 Sundays and Mondays (B) 53 Sundays (C) 53 Sundays or 53 Mondays
1 2 3
[Ans. P(A) = ; P(B) = ; P(C) = ]
7 7 7
Ex.7 A has 3 shares in a lottery / raffle in which there are 3 prizes and 6 blanks. B has
1 shares in a lottery in which there is 1 prize and 2 blanks. Show that A's chance is of
success of B's as 16 to 7.
Discuss
Now two important sample spaces are
(a) Pair of dice (b) Throwing of a coin
Home Work after 1st lecture : DPP No.–1

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 SECOND LECTURE
2. INTRODUCING
ADDITION AND MULTIPLICATION THEOREM AND CONDITIONAL PROB.
(i) Independent Events:

(ii) Difference between 'independent' and ' mutually exclusive ' (M.E.) events :

EXAMPLES ON CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:

Ex.1 A lot contains 12 items of which 4 are D. 3 items are drawn one after the other. find the
probability that all 3 are non defective. [Ans. P(DDD) = P(D) · P(D/D) · P(D/DD)]
Ex.2 For any two events A and B.
(a) Let P(AB) = 7/8 ; P(AB) = 1/4 and P(AC) = 5/8.
Find P(A), P(B) and P(A  Bc) [Ans: 3/8 ; 3/4 ; 1/8 ]
(b) If A and B are any two events with P(A)=3/8 ; P(B) = 1/2 and P(AB) = 1/4. Find
(i) P(AB) (ii) P(AC) and P(BC) (iii) P(ACBC) (iv) P(ACBC)
(v) P(ABC)(vi) P(BAC)
[ Ans: (i) 5/8 ; (ii) 5/8 & 1/2 ; (iii) 3/8 ; (iv) 3/4 ; (v) 1/8 ; (vi) 1/4 ]
Ex.3 Given P(A) = 1/2 ; P(B) = 1/3 and P(AB) = 1/4. Find
(i) P(A/B) (ii) P(B/A) (iii) P(AB) (iv) P(AC/BC) (v) P(BC/AC)
[Ans: 3/4 ; 1/2 ; 7/12 ; 5/8 ; 5/6]
Ex.4 Find P(B/A) if (i) A is subset of B (ii) A and B are disjoint
[ Ans: (i) 1 ; (ii) 0 ]
Ex.5 There are two urns marked A and B. Urn A contains 2 red and 1 blue. Urn B contains 1
red and 2 blue marbles. A fair coin is tossed. If it lands heads, a marble is drawn from
A. If it lands tails a marble is drawn from B. Consider the events
E1 : Heads and a red marble occur
E2 : Red marbles occurs
E3 : Blue marble occurs
E4 : Heads occurring if the marble drawn is red
Which one of the events described above is most probable?
(A) E1 (B) E2 (C) E3 (D*) E4

Home Work after 2st lecture : DPP No.–2

QUIZ-1
Q.1 Consider two events A and B such that P(A) = 1/3 and P(B) = 1/2. Find the probability
of A  B under each of the following conditions.
(a) A and B are independent:
P (A  B) = __________ [Ans. 2/3]
(b) A and B are disjoint:
P (A  B) = _________ [Ans. 5/6]
(c) A implies B:
P (A  B) = __________ [Ans. 1/2]
(d) P(AB) = 1/8
P (A  B) = ________ [Ans. 17/24]
(e) P(A/B) = 1/8
P (A  B) = ____________ [Ans. 37/48]

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Q.2 A students obtained the probabilities of the two events A and B as follows
2 3 23
P(Ac) = ; P(B) = ; P(Ac  Bc) = then
3 4 24
1 17
(A) P(A  B) = (B) P (Ac  B) =
24 24
7 the students has surely made some
(C) P (A  Bc) = (D*) mistake in obtaining the said probabilities
24
THIRD LECTURE (ILLUSTRATIONS)
EXAMPLES :

Ex.1(a) Bag E : they are of different colours

(i) when not replaced ; (ii) when replaced
(b) A purse contains 10 tickets, five printed with I and five printed with T. 3 tickets are
drawn without replacement and arranged in the same order in which they are drawn on
the table. Find the probability that IIT is formed.
Ex.2 A problem in mathematics is given to 2 children who solve it independently. If probability
of A solving it is 1/2 and probability of B solving it is 2/3. Find the probability that the
problem is solved. [Ans. 5/6]

Ex.3 Probability that a teacher takes a surprise test is 1/3. If a student remains absent for two
days then find the probability that he misses
(i) exactly one test (ii) at least one test (iii) atmost one test
n (S) = { T T, T T , T T , T T }
Ex.4 (a) An urn contains 1R , 2G and 3B balls. Three people A, B & C in order draw
one ball from the urn and put it back after noting its colour. They continue doing
it indefinitely unless one who draws a red ball first wins the game. Compute their
36 30 25
respective chances of winning the game. [Ans. , , ]
91 91 91
(b) A pair of dice is rolled until a total of 5 or 7 is obtained. Find the probability that
the total of 5 comes before a total of 7 [Ans. 2/5]
(c) Two persons A and B one by one in order drawn one ball each from a purse
containing 5W and 1R balls and retain it. The person who gets a red ball wins
the game.
E : event that 'A' wins and F : event that 'B' wins,
then E and F are equiprobable. [T/F] [Ans. P(E) = 1/2 = P(F)]

GENERAL ASKING
A coin is continued tossing until either a head and a tail is obtained for the first time or
unless the coin has been tossed for a maximum of five times. If the first two tosses have
resulted in both tails, find the chance that the coin will be tossed 5 times. [Ans: 0.25]
Ex.5 All face cards from a pack of 52 playing cards are removed. From the remaining
40 cards, 4 are drawn. Find the probability
(a) All the four cards are of the same denominations.
(b) that they are two cards of one denominations and two cards are of other
denominations.
(c) that they are of different suit & different denominations.
10
10
C1 · 4 C 4 C 2 · 4C 2 · 4 C 2 10
C 4 · 4!
[Sol. (a) 40 ; (b) 40
C4
; (c) 40 ]
C4 C4

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Ex.6(a) Three political parties namely the Congress, the B.J.P. and the Janta Dal are contesting
for a state legislative assembly elections. The state does not have a common entrance
test after the 12th standard, for the admissions to the medical or engineering colleges.
1 4 2
The probabilities of these parties winning the elections are , & respectively. If the
3 9 9
Congress comes to the power, the probability of its introducing the common entrance
test for the state is 0.6 and the corresponding probabilities for the B.J.P. and Janta Dal
are 0.7 and 0.5 respectively. Find the probability that the common entrance test is
28
introduced. [ Ans. : ]
45
(b) A lot contains 20 articles. The probability that the lot contains exactly 2 defective
articles is 0.4 & the probability that the lot contains exactly 3 defective articles is 0.6.
Articles are drawn from the lot at random one by one without replacement and are
tested till all defective articles are found. The probability that the testing procedure
ends at the twelfth testing [ Ans. : 99/1900 ]

Ex.7 A box contains 5 tubes, 2 of them defective and 3 good one. Tubes are tested by
one-by-one till the 2 defective tubes are discovered. What is the probability that the
testing procedure comes to an end at the end of
(A) second testing (B) 3rd testing [Ans. 1/10 ; 3/10]

Ex.8 Cards are dealt one by one from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards until an ace appears.
Find the probability that exactly n cards are dealt before the first ace appears. If cards
continue to be dealt until a second ace appears, find the probability that exactly K cards
are dealt in all before the second ace. What will be the probability if the first ace
appears in one of the K cards.
An Important Logic (Teach Later):
Ex.9 n whole numbers taken at random are multiplied together. Show that the chance that the
digit at the unit place of their product is
n
2 4n  2n
(a) 1, 3, 7 or 9 is   (b) 2, 4, 6 or 8 is
5 5n
5n  4 n 10n  10n  5n  4n
(c) 5 is (d) 0 is
10 n 10n
Home work after 3rd lecture : DPP No.–3
QUIZ-2
Experiment:
An urn contains six red balls and four black balls. All ten balls are drawn from the urn,
one by one, and their colour is noted. Balls are not replaced once they have been
drawn.
Q.1 Find the probability that the first three balls are all of the same colour i.e. P(they match)
[Ans. 1/5]

Q.2 Find the probability that the last three balls are all of the same colour. [Ans. 1/5]

Q.3 Given that the first three are of the same colour, find the probability that the colour is
red. [Ans. 5/6]

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 QUIZ-3
In the following experiment, we roll a fair die 5 times
1
(a) What is the probability of the sequence "1, 2, 3, 4, 5". [Ans. ]
65
1· 6 4 1
(b) What is the probability that the sequence starts with a "1" [Ans. 5 = ]
6 6
(c) What is the probability that the number "2" appears exactly twice.
5 4
C 2 ·1· 53 25
[Ans. =   ]
65 36
(d) Let E be the event that we find the sequence "1, 2, 3, 4, 5" and let F be the event that
the sequence starts with a "1".
1
What are the probabilities P(E/F) and P(F/E) [Ans. P(E/F) = 4 ; P(F/E) = 1]
6

FOURTH LECTURE
3. Three events defined on an experimental performance
For any three events A, B and C
(1) P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – [P(AB) + P(BC) + P(CA)] + P(ABC)
or P(A or B or C)  P(A)   P(A  B)   P(A  B  C)
(2) P(exactly one appearing) = P (E – 1)
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – 2[ P(AB) + P(BC) + P(CA)] + 3P(ABC)

(3) P(exactly two occurring) = P (E – 2)

P(AB) + P(BC) + P(CA) – 3P(ABC)

(4) P(at least two occuring) = P (E – 2) + P(E – 3)

P(AB) + P(BC) + P(CA) – 2P(ABC)

Ex.1 There are 3 clubs A, B and C in a town with 40, 50 and 60 members respectively.
10 people are members of all the three clubs , 70 are members in only one club. A
member is randomly selected. Find the probability that he had membership of exactly
two clubs.
7 1 3 5
(A) (B) (C) (D*)
15 6 21 21
Ex.2
1 1
(i) Three persons A, B, C independently fire at a target. Suppose P (A) = ; P (B) = ;
6 4
1
P (C) = denote their probabilities of hitting the target.
3
(a) Find the probability that at least one of them hits the target.
(b) Find the probability that exactly one of them hits the target.
(c) If the target is hit only once, find the probability that it was the man A.
7 31 6
[Ans. (a) ; (b) ; (c) ]
12 72 31
(ii) For the 3 events A,B and C
P( exactly one of the events A or B occurs) 
P( exactly one of the events B or C occurs)   p

P( exactly one of the events C or A occurs ) 
P(all the 3 events occur simultaneously) = p2
If A, B, C are exaustive then find the value(s) of p. [Ans. p = +1/2]
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 Note :
(1) If A, B, C are three pair wise mutually exclusive  they are mutually exclusive
however if A, B, C are mutually exclusive   they are pair wise mutually exclusive

ME   pair wise ME Pair wise ME  ME

(2) However , if A,B,C are pair wise independent   they are independent. Infact for
3 events A, B and C to be independent they must be
(i) pair wise (ii) mutually independent , mathematically
P(AB) = P(A) . P(B) ; P(BC) = P(B).P(C) ; P(CA) = P(C).P(A)
and P(ABC) = P(A).P(B).P(C)
|||ly for n independent events, the total number of conditions would be
n
C2 + nC3 + .... + nCn = 2n – n – 1
Pair wise independence does not lead to the independence can be understood by the following
examples.
Ex.3 A fair coin is tossed two times resulting in an equiprobable space
{HT, TH , TT, HH}. Three events are defined as
A : Head occuring on 1st toss {HT , HH } P(A) = 1/2
B : Head occuring on 2nd toss {TH , HH} P(B) = 1/2
C : Head occuring exactly on one toss {HT , TH} P(C) = 1/2
P(AB) = P{HH}= 1/4 ; P(BC) = P{TH}= 1/4 ; P(CA) = P(HT} = 1/4
Hence P(AB) = P(A). P(B) ; P(BC)= P(B) . P(C) ; P(CA) = P(C). P(A)
A, B,C are pair wise independent
now P(ABC) = 0 (think!)  A,B,C are not mutually independent
 they are pair wise independent
P(ABC) = 0 have A, B, C are not independent ]
Home Work:
Ex.5 Let three fair coins be tossed. Let A = {all heads or all tails} ; B = {at least two heads};
C = {at most two heads}. Of the pairs (A,B) ; (A,C) and (B,C) , which are independent
and which are dependent? [Ans. only A & B are independent ]
Home Work after 4th lecture : DPP No.– 4 + Exercise-I of Tutorial Sheet.

QUIZ-4
Q.1 to Q.3
Suppose a student A attends class 80% of the time and B attends class 60% of the
time. The absences of the two students are independent.
Q.1 Find the probability that at least one of the students will be present in the class on a
given day. [Ans. 23/25]
Q.2 If exactly one of the students A and B is present in the class, find the probability that A
is present. [Ans. 8/11]

Q.3 If at least one of the students A or B is present in the class on a given day, find the
probability that A is present. [Ans. 20/23]
Q.4 Roll a fair die twice. Let A be the event that the sum of the two rolls equals six, and let
B be the event that the same number comes up twice. What is P(A/B)?
(A*) 1/6 (B) 5/36 (C) 1/5 (D) none
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Q.5 The probability of a student getting an "A" in the first quiz is 0.2. Given that a student
got an "A" in the first quiz, the probability that she will get an "A" also in the second
quiz is 0.7. What is the probability of a student getting "A"s in both the first and
second quizzes?
(A) 0.7 (B) 0.2 (C*) 0.14 (D) 0.35
Q.6 A fair die is tossed twice. In which of the following, the events A and B independent?
(a) Let A be the events that the sum of the two rolls equals six, and let B be the event that
the same number comes up twice. [Ans. No]
(b) Let A be the event that the sum of the two rolls equals 5, and let B be the event that an
even number comes up in the first roll. [Ans. yes]
FIFTH LECTURE
4. An important theorem: (Binomial Probability Distribution)
For Independent Trials
Experiment

n independent trials ( Bernoulis trials)

if each of these trials have

Two possible outcomes

Success p+q = 1 Failure
P(S) = p P(F) = q
Then , P(r successes) = nCr pr qn–r
Proof:

e.g. 100 identical coins each falling head wise with probability p (0<p<1) are tossed once .
If the probability of 50 coins showing up the heads is equal to the probability of 51
51
coins showing up the heads, find the value of p. [Ans. p = ]
101
EXAMPLES :
Ex.1(a) A pair of dice is thrown 6 times, getting a doublet is considered a success. Compute
the probability of (a) no success (b) exactly one success
(c) at least one success (d) at most one success
Ex.1(b) A coin is twice as likely to land heads as tails. In a sequence of five independent trials,
16
find the probability that the third head occurs on the fifth toss. [Ans. ]
81
Ex.1(c) A fair coin is flipped n times. Let E be the event "a head is obtained on the first flip",
and let Fk be the event "exactly k heads are obtained". For which one of the following
pairs (n, k) are E and Fk independent?
(A) (12, 4) (B*) (20, 10) (C) (40, 10) (D) (100, 51)
Ex.2 In a hurdle race a man has to clear 9 hurdles. Probability that he clears a hurdle 2/3 and
the probability that he knocks down the hurdle is 1/3. Find the probability that he
knocks down fewer than 2 hurdles.
Ex.3 A drunkard takes a step forward or backward. The probability that he takes a step
forward is 0.4. Find the probability that at the end of 11 steps he is one step away from
the starting point.

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Ex.4 Probability that a war breaks up with our neighbouring country once in a year
is (1/10). Find the probability that 30 years at a stretch there will not be any war.
[Ans: (9/10)30]

Mathematical Expectation (Practical use of probability in day to day life):

It is worthwhile indicating that if p represents a person’s chance of success in any
venture and M the sum of money which he will receive in case of success, then the sum of
money denoted by pM is called his expectation. See the example:
EXAMPLES:
Ex.1 Two players of equal skill A and B are playing a game. They leave off playing (due to
some force majeure conditions) when A wants 3 points and B wants 2 to win. If the
prize money is Rs. 16000/-. How can the refree divide the money in a fair way.
[Ans. A’s share Rs. 5000/- ; B’s shares = 11000/- ]
Ex.2 2 hunters A and B shot at a bear simultaneously. The bear was shot dead with only one
hole in its body. Probability of A shooting the bear is 0.8 and that of B shooting the
bear is 0.4. The hide was sold for Rs 280/-. divide this money in a fair way.
0.48 0.08
[Ans. A’s share =  280 = 240/- ; B’s share =  280 = 40/-]
0.56 0.56
Home Work : DPP No.–5 + Ex-III of Tutorial Sheet 10 questions.
QUIZ-5
Paragraph for question nos. 1 to 3
A trial consists of rolling a red die and a blue die the dice being fair. The result R of the trial
is defined as the sum of the two numbers showing when the numbers on the red and the
blue dice are the same but as the product of these two numbers when they are different.
Q.1 The probability that the result of a throw is 12, is
1 1 5 1
(A) (B) (C*) (D)
12 9 36 6
Q.2 If R  15, then P(R  20) is
(A*) 3/5 (B) 2/5 (C) 1/2 (D) 1/3
Q.3 If the result of two such throws are added then P(R  45)
5 5 5
(A) (B) (C*) (D) None
108 648 162

SIXTH LECTURE
BAYE'S THEOREM OR TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM:
If an event A can occur only with one of the n pair wise mutually exclusive and
exhaustive events B1, B2, .... Bn & if the conditional probabilities of the events.
P (Bi ). P A / Bi 
P(A/B1), P(A/B2) .......P(A/Bn) are known then, P (B1/A) = n
 P (Bi ). P A / Bi 
i 1

Proof:

ILLUSTRATIONS:
Ex.1 A lady has 10 coins in her purse, 8 of them are normal coins, one of them is a DH and
one was a DT coin. She randomly draws a coin and tosses it for 5 times. The coin was
found to fall headwise on all the 5 occasions. Find the probability that the drawn coin
was a DH coin [Ans. 4/5]

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Ex.2 A bag contains 6 balls and it is not known of what colours they are. 3 balls are drawn
from the bag and found to be all black. Find the probability that no black balls are left
in the bag now. (Assume all numbers of black balls in the bag to be equally likely)

Ex.3 The contents of the urn I and urn II are as follows

One urn is chosen at random and a ball is drawn and its colour noted
and replaced back in the same urn. Again a ball is drawn from the
same urn, colour noted and replaced. The process is repeated 4
times and as a result one ball of white colour and 3 of black colour
are noted. What is the probability that the chosen urn was I.
[Ans. 125/287]
Ex.4 In a test an examinee either guesses or copies or knows the answer to a multiple
choice question with 4 choices (one or more than one correct). The probability that he
makes a guess is 1/3 and the probability that he copies the answer is 1/6. The probability
that his answer is correct given that he copied it, is 1/8. Find the probability that he
knows the answer to the question given that he correctly answered it.
360 24
[Ans. or ]
391 29
Ex.5 ‘A’ writes a letter to his friend and gives it to his son to post it in a letter box, the
reliability of his son being 3/4. The probability that a letter posted will get delivered is
8/9. At a later date ‘A’ hears from ‘B’ that the letter has not reached him. Find the
probability that the son did not post the letter at all. [Ans. 3/4]

QUIZ-6
Q.1 An urn contains four black and eight white balls. Three balls are drawn from the urn
without replacement. Three events are defined on this experiement
A: Exactly one black ball is drawn
B: All balls are drawn are of the same colour.
C: 3rd drawn ball is black.
Match the entries of column-I with none, one or more entries of column-II.
Column-I Column-II
(A) The events A and B are (P) Mutually exclusive
(B) The events B and C are (Q) Independent
(C) The events C and A are (R) Neither independent nor mutually exclusive
(D) The A, B and C are (S) Exhaustive
[Ans. (A) P, (B) R, (C) Q; (D) P]
Asking Problems:
a. A hat contains a number of cards with
30% white on both sides
50% black on one side and white on the other side.
20% black on both sides
The cards are mixed up, and a single card is drawn at random and placed on the table,
it's upper side shows up black. The probability that its other side is also black, is
(A) 2 9 (B*) 4 9 (C) 2 3 (D) 2 7
b. Suppose we have 10 coins such that if the ith coin is flipped, heads will appear with
i
probability . When one of the coin is randomly selected and flipped, it shows up
10
head. The probability that it was the fifth coin is
(A) 1/9 (B) 1/10 (C*) 1/11 (D) 1/2

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Ex.6 (Extended Bayes)
(a) A bag contains 3 biased coins B1, B2 and B3 whose probabilities of falling head wise
are 1/3, 2/3 and 3/4 respectively. A coin is drawn randomly and tossed, fell head wise.
Find the probability that the same coin when tossed again will fall head wise.
[Ans. 23/36]
(b) A bag contains 4 balls of unknown colours. A ball is drawn twice with replacement
from the bag found to be red on both the occasions. The contents of the bag were
replenished. If now two ball are drawn simultaneously from the bag, find the probabilities
that they will be both red. Assume all number of red balls in the bag to be equally likely.
Ex.7 A bag contains 6R and 4W balls. 4 balls are drawn one by one without replacement
and were found to be at least two white. Find the probability that the next draw of a ball
34
from this bag will give a white ball. [Ans. ]
115
Ex.8 A purse contains 4 coins, * each coin is either a rupee or a 50 paise coin. 2 coins are
drawn successively without replacement and were found to be both rupee coins. If
both these coins are replaced in the bag, what is the probability that next drawing will
give a 50 paise coin. [Ans. 1/4]

Home Work : complete exercise-III (Tutorial sheet)

Probability through Statistical (stochastic) Tree diagram

These tree diagrams are generally drawn by economist and give a simple approach to
solve a problem.
Ex.1 A bag initially contains 1 red ball and 2 blue balls. A trial consists of selecting a ball at
random, noting its colour, and replacing it together with an additional ball of the same
colour. Given that three trials are made, draw a tree diagram illustrating the various
probabilities. Hence, or otherwise, find the probability that
(A) at least one blue ball is drawn (B) exactly one blue ball is drawn.
(C) Given that all three balls drawn are of the same colour find the probability that they
are all red. [Ans. (A) 9/10, (B) 1/5, (C) 1/5]

Ex.2 Box A contains nine cards numbered 1 through 9, and box B contains five cards
numbered 1 through 5. A box is chosen at random and a card drawn; if the card shows
an even number, another card is drawn from the same box. If the card shows an odd
number, a card is drawn from the other box ;
(i) What is the probability that both cards show even numbers?
(ii) If both cards show even numbers, what is the probability that they come from box A?
(iii) What is the probability that both cards show odd numbers?
[ Ans: (i) 2/15 ; (ii) 5/8 ; (iii) 1/3]
SEVENTH (7th) LECTURE
Probability as used by top executives/judges/Bureaucrats who have to take decisions
based on information of people with whom they interact.
Coincidence Testimony
If p1 and p2 are the probabilities of speaking the truth of two independent witnesses A
and B who give the same statement
p1 p 2
P (their combined statement is true) = P(H1 / H1H2) = .
p1 p 2  (1  p1 )(1  p 2 )
where H1 means both speaks the truth and H2 means both speaks false.

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 In this case it has been assumed that we have no knowledge of the event except the
statement made by A and B.
However if p is the probability of the happening of the event before their statement then
p p1 p 2
P (their combined statement is true) = .
p p1 p 2  (1  p )(1  p1 )(1  p 2 )
Here it has been assumed that the statement given by all the independent witnesses can
be given in two ways only, so that if all the witnesses tell falsehoods they agree in
telling the same falsehood.
If this is not the case and c is the chance of their coincidence testimony then the
Probability that the statement is true = P p1 p2
Pr. that the statement is false = (1p).c (1p1)(1p2)
However chance of coincidence testimony is taken only if the joint statement is not
contradicted by any witness.
EXAMPLES :
Ex.1(a) A speaks the truth 3 out of 4 times , and B 5 out of 6 times. What is the probability
that they will contradict each other in stating the same fact.
Ex.1(b) All the jacks, queen, kings and aces of a regular 52 cards deck are taken out. The 16
cards are thoroughly shuffled and my opponent, a person who always tells the truth,
simultaneously draws two cards at random and says, "I hold at least one ace." The
probability that he holds two aces, is
1 3 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D*)
8 16 6 9

Ex.2 A speaks truth 3 times out of 4, and B 7 times out of 10. They both assert that a white
ball has been drawn from a bag containing 6 balls of different colours; find the probability
35
of the truth of their assertion. P(A) = 3/4; P(B)=7/10 [Ans. ]
36
Ex.3 There is a raffle with 12 tickets, 10 are blank and two prize winning tickets of Rs. 9
and Rs. 6. A, B, C whose probabilities of speaking the truth are 1/2, 2/3, 3/5 respectively,
report the result to D, who holds one ticket. A and B assert that he has won Rs. 9 prize
and C asserts that he has won Rs. 6 prize. What D’s expectations. [Ans. Rs. 2]
Ex.4 10 witnesses each of whom the probability of speaking the truth as 5/6, assert that
1
certain event took place. If the probability of this event before their statement is ,
1  59
find the probability of the truth of their assertion. [Ans. 5/6]

Probability Distribution (Only in the syllabus of CBSE but not in JEE)

(i) A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION spells out how a total probability of 1 is distributed over
several values of a discrete random variable denoting the number of successes.
(ii) Mean of any probability distribution of a random variable is given by :

p x
i i
 pi xi ( Since  pi = 1 )

p i

(iii) Variance of a random variable is given by, ² = ( xi  µ)² . pi

² =  pi x²i)  µ² ( Note that SD =  2 )
(iv) The probability distribution for a binomial variate ‘X’ is given by ;
P (X= r)= nCr pr qnr where all symbols have the same meaning as given in result 4.
The recurrence formula P (r  1)  n  r . p , is very helpful for quickly computing
P (r) r 1 q
P(1) , P(2). P(3) etc. if P(0) is known .

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(v) Mean of BPD = np ; variance of BPD = npq ; SD =  npq
Ex.1 A pair of fair dice is thrown. Let X be the random variable which denotes the minimum
of the two numbers which appear. Find the probability distribution, mean and variance
of X. [ Ans :  = 2.5 ; var(X) = 2.1 ]
Ex.2 A lot contain 8 items of which 5 are good and 3 defective. Getting a defective item is
considered as success. If 3 are randomly drawn. Find the probability distribution,
mean and S.D. of defective item.
Ex.3 A fair coin is tossed four times. Let Y denotes the random variable denoting the "longest
string of heads" occurring. Find the probability distribution, mean, variance and S.D.
of Y. [ Ans:  = 1.7 ; 2 = 0.9 ; SD = 0.95]

ASKING: Suppose X has a binomial distribution B(10, 1/2). The value of X which is more
likely to occurs.
Ex.4 If the mean and SD of a binomial variate X are 9 and 3/2 respectively. Find the probability
that X takes a value greater than one. [Ans. P(X>1) = 1 – P(X = 0 or 1) Ans ]
Ex.5(a) Find the mean (expected) number of dots when a dice is thrown once. [Ans. 3.5]
(b) A dise has 3 ones, 2 three's and one 5's. Find the expected number of dots.
Ex.6 If the sum of the mean and variance of a B.D. for 6 trials is 2.16. Find the distribution.

GENERAL EXAMPLE
Ex.1 A bag contains a coin of value M, and a number of other identical coins whose aggregate
value is m. A person draws one at a time till he draws the coin M. Find the value of his
expectation. [ Ans: (M + m/2) ]

Asking after BPD

Q.1 The probability that John hits a target is p = 1/4. He fires 100 times. Find the expected
number of times he will hit the target and the S.D. [Ans.  = 25 ;  = 4.5]

Q.2 A fair die is tossed 180 times. Find the expected number of times the face 6 will appear
and the S.D. [Ans.  = 30 ;  = 5]

Poisson's Probability distribution : (Only for AIEEE)

In BPD when n   and p  0 such that np = , is a finite quantity then BPD can be
approximated to PPD.
In BPD
P (X = r) = nCr pr qn – r
n
n (n  1)(n  2).....( n  r  1) r n ( n  1)( n  2).....( n  r  1) · r 1  ( n ) 
Lim p (1  p) n  r Lim
n  r! = n  n r · r! (1  p ) r
p0 p 0

 1  2   r  1  r 
11  1  .....1   
=  n  n   n  r 1  ( n ) 
n 
  = r! ·e
Lim · ·
n  r! 1  ( n )r
e   · r
Hence P(X = r) = where np =  and  is called the parameter of P.P.D.
r!

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Note:
1. Mean of PPD =  
2. Variance of PPD =     np
3. SD of PPD =  

Ex.1 Suppose that 2 percent of the items produced by a factory are defective. Find the
probability that there are 3 defective items in a sample of 100 items. (e–2 = 0.135)
[Ans. 0.180 ]

Continuous sample space (Axiomatic Statements) [Not in Course]

Concept :
(i) If a point is taken at random on the area S which includes an
area , the chance that the point falls on  is /S.
(ii) If a point is taken at random on a given straight line AB, the chance that it falls on a
particular segment PQ of the line is PQ/AB.
EXAMPLES :
Ex.1(a) A point is selected at random inside an equilateral triangle whose length is 3. Find the
probability that its distance to any corner is greater than 1.
2
[Ans. 1 – ]
9 3
Ex.1(b) Two points are picked at random on the unit circle x2 + y2 = 1. The probability that
the chord joining the two points has length at least 1, is
(A) 4/9 (B) 1/3 (C) 1/6 (D*) 2/3

Ex.2(a) A circle of radius ‘a’ is inscribed in a square of side 2a. Find the probability that a
point chosen at random is inside the square but outside the circle.
[Ans. P(E) = 1– /4 ]
(b) A point is selected at random inside a circle. Find the probability that the point is
closer to the circumference of the circle than to its centre. [Ans: 3/4]
Ex.3 The sides of a rectangle are chosen at random each less than 10 cm, all such lengths being
equally likely. Find the probability that the diagonal of the rectangle is less than 10 cm.
[Ans. /4]
Ex.4 A line is divided into three parts, what is the chance that they form the sides of a
possible triangle. [Ans. 1/4]
Ex.5 A starts from a town ‘X’ any time between 1PM to 4PM walks
towards the town ‘Y’ on a straight road with a speed of 4km/hr and
B starts from ‘Y’ at any time between 1 PM to 4PM and walks
towards ‘X’ at 4 km/hr. Assuming all times of starting all
equally likely, find the odds in favour of their meeting on the way.
[Ans. 5 : 4 ]

H.W. Two persons A and B decide to meet at a particular place between 2 PM to 3 PM with
the understanding that they will wait for no longer than 15 minutes for the other. Find
the probability that they meet.
Home Work : DPP No.-6, Exercise-II of Tutorial Sheet.

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