EURUSDTRADER.

net
May 4th – May 8th 2009

Last Week

The JPY weakened, the USD weakened, and the Stocks strengthened. NZD was weak as a result of dovish
Central bank comments.

This Week

Anticipating further weakness in the Japanese yen and the US dollar

Trading the Scheduled News

We will focus on getting in after the release after the initial spike on surprises as our set-up; and the 1
minute 60SMA (along with a 12 minute cooling off period) as our technical trade entry signal.

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Date ET Indicator Buy Forecast Sell Last Pair TV 2008-9 2008-9
05/05/09 12:30am AUD rate decision 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 3.00% AUDUSD 50@surprise 6 for 7 86%
05/05/09 10:00am Bernanke testifies Hawkish Neutral Dovish Hawkish GBPJPY 50@surprise 4 for 7 57%
05/05/09 9:30pm AUD retail sales 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) (2.0) AUDUSD 30@0.5 4 for 6 67%
05/06/09 4:30am UK CIPS service 47.3 46.3 45.3 45.5 GBPUSD 29@1.0 9 for 12 75%
05/06/09 6:45pm NZD payroll (0.7) (1.0) (1.3) 0.9 NZDUSD 40@0.3 4 for 5 80%
05/06/09 9:30pm AUD payroll (4.9) (24.9) (44.9) (34.7) AUDUSD 40@20 2 for 3 67%
05/07/09 7:00am UK rate decision 0.75% 0.50% 0.25% 0.50% GBPUSD 50@surprise 1 for 1 100%
05/07/09 7:45am EUR int rates 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% 1.25% EURUSD 50@surprise 1 for 2 50%
05/07/09 8:30am EUR press conf Hawkish Neutral Dovish Hawkish EURUSD 50@surprise 8 for 11 73%
05/08/09 7:00am CAD labour (69.7) (49.7) (29.7) (61.3) USDCAD 50@20 8 for 8 100%
05/08/09 8:30am US non-farm (561) (615) (669) (663) GBPJPY 50@54 3 for 6 50%

AUD

Interest rate decision is expected to be a decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.00%. If rates
are increased (almost no chance of that) AUDUSD should go up 50 points or more above the pre-release
price; we will try to sell it on the way back down, using the 1 minute 60SMA and the 12 minute cooling
off period strategy. If rates are lowered (some chance of that but we don’t think so) AUDUSD should go
down 50 points or more below the pre-release price; we will try to buy it on the way back up, using the
1 minute 60SMA and the 12 minute cooling off period strategy.

Retail sales (trend) are expected to be -0.5. If the actual number is 0.0 or more AUDUSD might possibly
increase 30 points or more above the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to sell AUDUSD on the way
back down when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA, provided the 12 minute cooling off period has
elapsed. If the actual number is -1.0 or less AUDUSD might possibly decrease 30 points or more below
the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to buy AUDUSD on the way back up when it trades through
the 1 minute 60SMA, provided the 12 minute cooling off period has elapsed.

Payroll is expected to be -24.9k. If the actual number is -4.9k or better AUDUSD should increase at least
40 points above the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to sell the AUDUSD on the way back down
when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move up and then back down
and through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes). If the actual number is -44.9k or worse AUDUSD
should decrease at least 40 points below the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to buy the AUDUSD
on the way back up when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move down
and then back up through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes).

US

Bernanke testifies on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
Bernanke’s current assessment of the US economy was summed up in the FOMC interest rate
announcement accompanying statement released last Wednesday (things are still bad, they may be
getting a tad better, but risks remain). If Bernanke’s prepared remarks and the Q and A that follow don’t
deviate much from what was said last Wednesday then there will be no possible trade scenario. If
Bernanke is unexpectedly bullish on the US economy and GBPJPY increases; our possible trade is to sell

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it on the way back down using the 1 minute 60sma and 12 minute cooling off period. If Bernanke is
unexpectedly bearish on the US economy and GBPJPY decreases; our possible trade is to buy it on the
way back up using the 1 minute 60sma and 12 minute cooling off period.

Non-farm payroll is expected to be -615k. If the actual number is -561k or better we anticipate the
GBPJPY pair will go up at least 50 pips (we are assuming the DOW will go up and the yen will go down).
Our strategy would be to try and sell on the way back down using the 1 minute 60SMA and the 12
minute cooling off period strategy. If the actual number is -669k or worse we anticipate the GBPJPY pair
will go down at least 50 points (we are assuming the DOW will go down and the yen will go up). Our
strategy would be to try and buy on the way back up using the 1 minute 60SMA and the 12 minute
cooling off period. Make sure to consider the prior 2 months revisions, which will be released
immediately following the current month’s number.

UK

CIPS services are expected to be 46.3. If the actual number is 47.3 or more GBPUSD should increase at
least 29 points above the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to sell the GBPUSD on the way back
down when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move up and then back
down and through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes). If the actual number is 45.3 or less GBPUSD
should decrease at least 29 points below the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to buy the GBPUSD
on the way back up when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move down
and then back up through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes).

Interest rate decision is expected to be a decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. If the
actual interest rate decision is an increase (almost no chance of that) GBPUSD should increase at least
50 points above the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to try and sell the GBPUSD on the way back
down when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move up and then back
down and through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes). If the actual interest rate decision is a
reduction GBPUSD should decrease at least 50 points below the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is
to try and buy the GBPUSD on the way back up when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is
not valid if the move down and then back up and through the band takes less than 12 minutes).

NZD

Payroll (quarterly) is expected to be -1.0. If the actual number is -0.7 or better NZDUSD should increase
at least 40 points above the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to sell the NZDUSD on the way back
down when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move up and then back
down and through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes). If the actual number is -1.3 or worse NZDUSD
should decrease at least 40 points below the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to buy the NZDUSD
on the way back up when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move down
and then back up through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes).

EUR

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Interest rate decision is expected to be a decision to lower interest rates to 1.00% from 1.25%. If
interest rates are cut to 0.75% or lower EURUSD should decrease 50 points or more below the pre-
release price. Our trade strategy is to buy EURUSD on the way back up when it trades through the 1
minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move down and then back up through the 60SMA takes less
than 12 minutes). If interest rates are left unchanged EURUSD should increase 50 points or more above
the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to sell EURUSD on the way back down when it trades
through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move up and then back down and through the
60SMA takes less than 12 minutes).

Trichet press conference will be closely monitored by traders for hints of what the ECB may or may not
be planning to unfreeze the credit markets and get Europe rolling again. It is difficult to formulate a
trade strategy without knowing what the interest rate decision is. If interest rates are cut to 1.00% (as
expected) and the tone or words of Trichet’s statement implies that interest rates will not be cut again
anytime soon and the council is not considering quantitative easing EURUSD might possibly increase 50
points or more above the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to sell EURUSD on the way back down
when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move up and then back down
and through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes). If interest rates are cut to 1.00% (as expected) and
the tone or words of Trichet’s statement implies that interest rates WILL be cut again relatively soon or
the ECB is considering quantitative easing EURUSD might possibly decrease 50 points or more below the
pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to buy EURUSD on the way back up when it trades through the 1
minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the move down and then back up and through the 60SMA takes
less than 12 minutes).

CAD

Labour force survey has the best track record of all the NewsTrader’s tradable indicators (19 of the last
20 tradable news releases resulted in the USDCAD pair reaches or exceeding its target). There are two to
trade this release. 1) If the news is tradable and a suitable entry price in the direction of the price
projection target is available prior to the price projection target being met or exceeded – take the trade.
This strategy would involve getting in on a retracement. 2) Wait until after the price projection target is
reached and possibly trade the retracement or reversal, using the 1 minute 60SMA strategy with the 12
minute cooling off period. Here is how to trade it the 2nd way: if the actual number is -69.7 or worse
USDCAD should increase at least 50 points above the pre-release price. Our trade strategy is to sell the
USDCAD on the way back down when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the signal is not valid if the
move up and then back down and through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes). If the actual number
is -29.7 or better USDCAD should decrease at least 50 points below the pre-release price. Our trade
strategy is to buy the USDCAD on the way back up when it trades through the 1 minute 60SMA (the
signal is not valid if the move down and then back up through the 60SMA takes less than 12 minutes).

LAST WEEK

US advanced GDP signaled the GBPJPY would go down 50 pips and it did!

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Indicator Date Buy Forecast Sell Actual Trade Pair TV Success 15 min 30 60 90 120
US advance GDP 4/29 (4.3) (4.8) (5.3) (6.1) Sell GBPJPY 50@0.5 Yes 1 (31) (44) (56) (43) 21
US rate decision 4/29 Hawkish Neutral Dovish Neutral GBPJPY 50@surprise 119 (6) 118 102 95 79
NZD rate decision 4/29 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.50% NZDUSD 50@surprise 0 (76) (72) (85) (87) (87)
US ISM mfg 5/1 40.6 38.4 36.2 40.1 GBPJPY 40@2.2 12 (34) (80) (61) (42) (33)