Final Manuscript Capstone File

University of Southeastern Philippines
Iñigo Street, Bo. Obrero, Davao City
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR SELECTING CROP AND IDENTIFYING PLANTING
METHODOLOGY BASED ON ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL FACTOR USING FUZZY
LOGIC APPROACH
Submitted to the Graduate School of Computing

in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of
Master in Information Technology
by
WILKIN F. SIMO
JANUARY 2019
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Contents
CHAPTER I ...................................................................................................................................... 4
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 4
1.1. Background of the Study ........................................................................................... 4
1.2. Project Context .......................................................................................................... 6
1.3. Purpose and Description ........................................................................................... 6
1.4. Objectives .................................................................................................................. 7
1.5. Scope and Limitation ................................................................................................. 8
1.5.1. Scope .................................................................................................................. 8
1.5.2. Limitation ........................................................................................................... 9
CHAPTER II ................................................................................................................................... 10
2. Review of Related Literature and Systems ..................................................................... 10
2.1. Review of Related Literature ................................................................................... 10
Agriculture Status in the Philippines and Davao Oriental Crops .................................... 10
The Effects of Climate Change in Agriculture .................................................................. 11
Effects of Typhoon Pablo in Agriculture .......................................................................... 11
Crop Selection and Identifying Planting Methodology ................................................... 12
Environment and Spatial Data for Decision Making in Crop Selection........................... 13
Environmental Factors in Crop Production ..................................................................... 13
Spatial Factor in Crop Production ................................................................................... 15
The Integration of ICT into Agriculture ........................................................................... 17
Decision Support System as Tool for Selecting Crops ..................................................... 17
Fuzzy Logic Approach in Decision Support Systems ........................................................ 18
2.2. Review of Related Systems ..................................................................................... 19
MarketLight ..................................................................................................................... 19
Development of Web-based Decision Support System for Field-based Crop Management
............................................................................................................................................. 20
The DSSAT cropping system model ................................................................................. 21
Development of an Expert System for Personalized Crop Planning ............................... 22
KrishiMantra: Agricultural Recommendation System .................................................... 24
Decision Support System for Seed Selection using Spatially-Reference Soil Data ......... 25
Table 1: Comparison Matrix ................................................................................................ 26
CHAPTER III .................................................................................................................................. 27
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CHAPTER IV .................................................................................................................................. 30
4. Design and Methodology ................................................................................................ 30
4.1. Conceptual Framework ........................................................................................... 30
4.2. Development Model ................................................................................................ 31
Requirements and Planning Phase.................................................................................. 32
Analysis and Design Phase .............................................................................................. 32
Implementation and Testing Phase ................................................................................ 39
System Evaluation ........................................................................................................... 39
CHAPTER V ................................................................................................................................... 40
5. Results and Discussion .................................................................................................... 40
To investigate the potential of a decision support system using environmental and spatial
factor in managing crop selection and planting methodology. .......................................... 40
Predict the upcoming rainfall and precipitation of the area based on the historical record
of rainfall and precipitation data of an area to be used for supporting tools for crop
selection and planting methodology. ................................................................................. 51
Develop a supporting tools using spatial factor and environment factor that will provide
an integrated knowledge-base for crop selection that will suit the area and identify what
would be the best planting methodology on an area. ....................................................... 54
Determine the following attribute that would best fit for selection of crops and planting
methodology. ...................................................................................................................... 59
CHAPTER VI.................................................................................................................................. 61
6. Summary, Conclusions and Recommendations .............................................................. 61
6.1. Summary .................................................................................................................. 61
6.2. Conclusions .............................................................................................................. 62
6.3. Recommendations ................................................................................................... 63
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CHAPTER I
1. Introduction
1.1. Background of the Study
In the part of Southeast Asia, Philippines is one of the country that are being
hardly hit by typhoons, floods and droughts (D. Israel, 2013). This disaster leaves a
negative effects in terms of economic and environmental impacts on affected areas
which leads to damage crop production, foods supply falls and even affect farming
livelihood. Moreover the unwelcome consequences and continuous expose to natural
disaster makes agriculture and natural resources become vulnerable.
Agriculture continues to be the major source of income and employment in the
total economy, employing nearly half of the total labour force and contributing over 20%
of gross domestic product (C. David, 1995). According to Philippines Statistic Authority,
about 32 percent of the country's total land area were agricultural lands. Of this, 51%
and 44% were arable and permanent croplands, respectively. The country's main
agricultural crops are rice, corn, coconut, sugarcane, bananas, pineapple, coffee,
mangoes, tobacco, and abaca (a banana-like plant). Secondary crops include peanut,
cassava, camote (a type of rootcrop), garlic, onion, tomato, cabbage, eggplant, calamansi
(a variety of lemon), rubber, and cotton (Nations Encyclopedia, 2010).
An analysis Crop choice is frequently mentioned as a potential strategy to
climate change. Farmers make crop selection based on several criteria including
environmental factors such as climatic and soils conditions. The structure conducted by
P. Kurulasiya and R. O. Mendelson (2010) finds that crop choice is very sensitive. Some
of the farmers will change crops to be planted based on the changes of weather. Farmers
will also shift towards drought tolerant or water living crops respectively.
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Since the Philippines focuses on the agricultural sector, it is important that
farmers are aware what would be the best crop to be planted and the practices to be
implemented in planting. There are factors that are being considered in order to identify
what would be the crop to be planted in a certain area. It can be based on the farm
conditions like its topographic area, crop availability, farming system and other factor
that may affect in planting and harvesting crops. Choosing the right seed for the field is
a very important and difficult task, and guessing what the weather may be in the
following year, an even greater task yet.
In a crop field, there are always differences between plants. Some crops may
have characteristics that are more suitable than those of other crops. Soil Characteristic
are extremely important when determining yield potential. These factor will be a great
baseline in order that the farmer can plant and yield a good harvest.
Furthermore, the changes in temperature from time to time can be contributed
to the adverse effects of climate change causing the irregularities on the amount of
rainfall and precipitation happens in a year. One of the recent tragedy that gave a
negative impact in Davao Oriental was the Super Typhoon Pablo on 4th of December,
2013 that devastated over 300,000 hectares of land wiping out entire coconut
plantations, and it teared over 100 years of farming livelihood. Agriculture has been
decreased by 23 percent and the affected areas where coconut and banana including
the extensive wage labor opportunities associated with their commercial production and
processing, requires significant time, effort and investment. That is why one of the
intervention and recommendation to address early recovery key issues is to provide
agricultural practices with the tools and kits that would allow technological transfer and
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put into place small scale feasible mitigation in order to increase resilience by adaptation
measures. (n.d., 2013)
These circumstances greatly causes significant changes on the farmers’ decisions
in their conduct of rotational crop planning and it has become a problem since it is hard
to determine when is the appropriate time of planting and which planting methodology
best fits the situation. Furthermore, other major variables which includes the changes
on soil attribute, soil content, and field condition are also need to be considered as these
are the fundamental factors in the determination of crops and identification of planting
methodology.
To address such problems, a decision support system model will be created in
order to help identify what would be the suitable seeds or crops to be planted in an area
and the most effective crops on a certain area based on the environment and spatial
data of the field.
1.2. Project Context
The purpose of the study is to create a decision support system model that will be
used for selecting appropriate crop to be planted in an area. This decision support system
model can be a good help for decisions on what method to be used on identifying crop to
be planted as well as the best planting methodology to be used in a field. Predictive
analysis will be used in order to make such decisions by collecting historical data on
weather, temperature and field precipitation as well as other environmental and spatial
factor.
1.3. Purpose and Description
The purpose of the study is to create a decision support system model that will
be used for selecting appropriate crop to be planted in an area. This decision support
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system model can be a good help for decisions on what method to be used on
identifying crop to be planted as well as the best planting methodology to be used in
a field. Predictive analysis will be used in order to make such decisions by collecting
historical data on weather, temperature and field precipitation as well as other
environmental and spatial factor.
1.4. Objectives
The study aims to develop a decision support system using fuzzy logic that will enable
to identify the crop to be planted and the planting methodology to be applied in a
certain area.
The specific objective of the study are the following:
 To investigate the potential of a decision support system using environmental
and spatial factor in managing crop selection and planting methodology.
 Predict the upcoming rainfall and precipitation of the area based on the
historical record of rainfall and precipitation data of an area to be used for
supporting tools for crop selection and planting methodology.
 Develop a supporting tools using spatial factor and environment factor that
will provide an integrated knowledge-base for crop selection that will suit the
area and identify what would be the best planting methodology on an area.
 Determine the following attribute that would best fit for selection of crops
and planting methodology:
o Crop Data (Soil Requirements, Climatic requirements – temperature,
rainfall, precipitation)
o Environmental Data Data (Annual highest and lowest temperature,
annual distribution of rainfall, field precipitation)
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o Spatial (Soil properties of farms, ph level, field type)
1.5. Scope and Limitation
The scope and limitation of the project were thoroughly analyze by the proponent
for the purpose of merely an effective knowledge dissemination of the project.
Below are the scope and limitation:
1.5.1. Scope
This study is designed only for establishing model for determining
the best fit crops as well as the planting methodology in an area by using
the following attribute:
o Crop Data (Ph Level Requirements, Soil Requirements, Climatic
requirements – temperature, rainfall, humidity)
o Spatial Data (Soil Type of Farm, Soil Ph Level, Slope and
Elevation)
o Environment Data (Annual highest and lowest temperature,
annual distribution of rainfall, field precipitation)
The study only covers the short term crops of Davao Oriental as
output for crops to be suggested by the system. The following crops to
be included in the system are Tomato, Eggplant, Bell Pepper, Lettuce,
Carrots, Onion, Peanut, Cabbage and Radish.
In specific, the researcher will be using time series analysis for
predicting rainfall, temperature, humidity and precipitation of an area.
This study will also use If-Then Rule fin order to derive an output.
Also, the researcher will be creating a web-based system that will be
used to test the system being created that will allow the user to manage
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crop data and consolidate data from agencies and users. The system will
show result for predicted rainfall, precipitation and other related data
for crops.
1.5.2. Limitation
 The study focuses only on seed or crop selection and identifying the
planting methods specifically in Davao Oriental.
 The system will only limit to one (1) year of monthly prediction for
weather, humidity, temperature and rainfall.
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CHAPTER II
2. Review of Related Literature and Systems
This chapter presents some ideas and views of different authors, writer and researcher
regarding crop selection and methods in planting preparations. It includes the idea of
forecasting of weather that is essential in selecting seed.
2.1. Review of Related Literature
Agriculture Status in the Philippines and Davao Oriental Crops
The country's main agricultural crops are rice, corn, coconut, sugarcane, bananas,
pineapple, coffee, mangoes, tobacco, and abaca (a banana-like plant). Secondary crops
include peanut, cassava, camote (a type of rootcrop), garlic, onion, cabbage, eggplant,
calamansi (a variety of lemon), rubber, and cotton. The year 1998 was a bad year for
agriculture because of adverse weather conditions. Sector output shrank by 8.3 percent,
but it posted growth the following year. Yet, hog farming and commercial fishing posted
declines in their gross revenues in 1999. The sector is burdened with low productivity for
most of its crops (Philippines - Agriculture, n.d.).
Davao Oriental is the largest coconut-producing province in the region and contributes an
average of 7.4% to the country’s total production or equivalent to 1.06 billion nuts. All
municipalities have land planted to coconut. The top 4 municipalities in terms of number
of hectares planted to coconut are Baganga, Mati, Caraga and Gov. Generoso. Together,
they produce 60% of the coconuts produced in the province. Davao Oriental produced
only 14% of the total rice produced in the region. Rice is produced in 8 of the 11
municipalities. Of those 8, Banaybanay, Cateel and Lupon are the top 3 producers. The
the other major crops of Davao Oriental includes Coconut, Rice, Corn, Mango, Abaca,
Banana, Cassava and Rubber.
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The Effects of Climate Change in Agriculture
The effect of climate change in agriculture at the global scale, is considered to
trigger for changes in agricultural system and crop productivity in the coming decades and
has gained significant attention because it threatens global food security [Gaiser et al.
2011]. These findings suggest that assessments of agricultural production should consider
not only levels of crop yield, but should also include the trade-offs between crop
production and resource availability, which influence farmer decision-making and
profitability[Donatelli et al., 1999]. Climate change worsens the economic situation and
food security among others of the Philippine people. Hence, there is a critical and urgent
need to develop climate-smart technologies available and accessible to the farmers
through creation of an enabling institutional environment (“Addressing the Impacts of
Climate Change in the Philippine Agriculture Sector”, 2015). When there is a change of
temperature, precipitation also changes which profoundly affects agricultural production
and prices.
The change in temperature, as well as the accompanying change in precipitation, has the
potential to profoundly affect agricultural production and prices (H. Kaiser, 1991).
According to Aydinalp and Cresser, that the impact of climate change to agriculture will
result to uncertainty regarding the potential for adaptation of management of animal
wastes. (Aydinalp and Cresser, 2008). A crop may affects it’s yield were soil moisture,
precipitation, temperature, cloud cover and increase of carbon dioxide due to changes of
rainfall and other environmental factors.
Effects of Typhoon Pablo in Agriculture
Around 4th of December of 2013, Typhon Pablo (Bhopa) devastated around
300,000 hectares of land that caused the wipe out of major crop of the Davao Oriental
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which includes coconut and banana plantation. There is a severe reduction on livelihood
and seriously wiping out agricultural trade industry. The assessment of nutrition, food
security and livelihood replicates a severe reduction in population income and livelihood.
Thus providing agricultural inputs and technical support for crops may be able to help
while restoration of banana, coconut, fishing and other agricultural livelihood will be
restore.
Crop Selection and Identifying Planting Methodology
Since proper selection of crops are needed in crop management, it is important
to note that the seeds derived from the chosen crops go through the process of seed
selection. Seed selection is an essential process in crop management as it may lead to
higher yields (Morris, 1980) and better production of crops will be achieved (Titiksha, n.d.)
if healthier and high quality seeds were chosen to cultivate.
Numerous approaches were proposed and used to develop DSS but emphasize
on line on participatory decision support system development. (Churi, 2013). According
to Byjus.com, seeds selection poses a big challenge for the farmers thus it is considered
as a crucial and at the same time a vital part in planting. Since farmers are aiming to obtain
healthy crops, it is necessary that alongside the proper selection of seeds based on plant
size, quantity of grain, fruit size or color and disease resistance, the selected seeds should
have the nutrients needed for it to grow healthily. With this, farmers will be benefited
with good harvest and at the same time, good income. Good selection of seeds is also
useful in improving the quality of the crop variety.
There are different methods and practices that are being implemented which
help soil moisture and nutrients that helps improve crop productivity. Through DSS
farmers can be able to determine what method to be used under certain conditions. A
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good tillage method can help improve the productivity of crops under different climate
conditions (Majule, 2010). This made farmer change tillage practices under different
climate conditions and adapt the climate.
Environment and Spatial Data for Decision Making in Crop Selection
Climate data such as humidity, temperature and solar radiation directly affect the
growth of plants. Each crop has different level of required temperature, relative humidity
and solar radiation(P. Taechatanasat L. Armstrong,2014). Site condition that include
climatic and physiographic factors affects the development of plants (Folledo 2001). This
may also affects the productivity and capability of crops. The practices of selecting the
crop to grow in a specific area can be determined in different factors (Majule, 2010). This
include temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, soil, vegetation cover, radiation
energy and socioeconomic conditions of farmers. Climatic conditions determine what
crops could be grown in an area.
Environmental Factors in Crop Production
In crop production, environmental factor such as climate, soil properties and
terrain, and soil water are the one being considered to create suitable conditions for
specific crops to be grown in a specific area (N. Baker and P. Capel, 2011). There are area
where it is nearly ideal for commercial agriculture. Location where places having rugged
slopes, poor soil content, insufficient or having excess of soil water and having
inhospitable climate could provide unprofitable commercial agriculture or perhaps
impossible to use as agricultural land. There are different adaptation strategies to climate
variability in crop production that are used to mapped climatic events. Yet, it still
indefinite on which strategic and tactical farm level decisions that are useful to small scale
farmers that when it comes to climatic procedures (Churi, 2013). Rainfall is of the most
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complex elements of climate to understand and model due to the complexity of
atmospheric process that generate it as well as the large range of variation over a wide
scale in both space and time (French et. Al, 1992). According to Sundaravalli (Sundaravalli
and Geetha, 2017), that predicting rainfall for crop production will help the farmers know
the production in the coming season as well as the amount of rainfall will occurs in order
that the farmers well be aware and how they will manage themselves from their heavy
loss. Rainfall is one of the primary factors that affect crop production especially in a rain-
feed agriculture (R. J. Godwin, 1990). Excessive water will result in getting rid of the
nutrients that helps the crop grow. Rainfall usually very vital when it comes to health of
plants. Too little or too much rainfall can be harmful which will result to devastation of
crops.
Importance of Rainfall
One of the factor in terms of climatic factor which impact growth of crop is the
rainfall or precipitation which is the basis for the amount of water to be supplied on
crops. In agriculture, rainfall is extremely important and it is one of the biggest shortfalls
when it comes to crop production (Sivakumar, 2005). If there is not enough rainfall in a
farm area, combination of rainfall and irrigation needs to be supplied. Moreover, if there
is no any rainfall, then water from irrigation will be needed in the farm. According to
Ayoade (Ayoade, 2004) that the vital role in growth of crops as well as the production of
all crops is water whre it porivdes the food and nutrients that are carried through the
plant. In order to have a productive agricultural production, water is very essential. The
amount of water that is needed by crops will depend on soil and climatic condition and
at the same time the attribute of the plant itself.
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Since rainfall is the one that provides the source for soil moisture, if it will not be
distributed properly then there will be excess water and may affect other crop which will
result in to lack of water holding. Through proper knowledge of the rainfall, this will help
to retain soil moisture sufficiently and will not cause the crop to suffer during the dry
seasons.
Importance of Temperature
Temperature is one of the most important factor for the growth of plants.
Through temperature it help the rate of photosynthesis which is the process of creating
food for the plant in order for the plant to grow. Temperature requirements may differ
depending on the type of crop. According to Hatfield (2015), temperature is primarily
factor that affects the development rate of plant. Warmer or even extreme temperature
gives an impact in plant productivity especially during the reproductive stage of
development of the plants and will result in the decrease of yield. According to Hollinger,
temperature is the major variable that determine whether a crop will grow (Hollinger and
Angel 2009). Increase in temperature will affect the plant and development of crops in
terms of Physiological processes and could result to drop crop yield over the present level
(Rasul, 2011).
Spatial Factor in Crop Production
Soil Type, Elevation and Slope of an area and Ph level are being considered in
selecting crops. Increase in slope or farm area with high elevation have similar constraint
in high latitude area which includes poor soil condition, increase of wind velocity and
decreased in temperature (Singh and Dhillon, 2004). It is these secondary characteristics
that constrain crop cultivation rather than high elevation itself. Terrain that is too rugged
(steep slopes) is not readily accessible for mechanized agriculture. In addition, terrain
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indirectly effects soil formation, modifies climates, and affects water drainage and
availability. Steep slopes are subject to soil and nutrient loss. In contrast, very flat terrain
is prone to flooding and poorly drained soils. Soil pH provides a good indication of the
chemical status of the soil and can be used in part to determine potential plant growth
(Londo, Kushla, Carter, 2006). Nutrients are most available at pH levels between 6.5 and
7.5. Nutrients in the soil may be chemically tied up or bound to soil particles and
unavailable to plants if the pH is outside this range. Individual plants have pH preferences
and grow best if planted in soils that satisfy their pH requirements.
Importance of Soil Requirements
Soil on of the essentially semi renewable agricultural resources. Since the
Philippines is among one of the Southeast Asian countries, majority of the people rely on
agricultural works and production and soil has played an important role as one of the
input being considered in farming. Soil structure, Soil Ph Level, topology, water content,
water capacity, etc. are very important to determine the suitability of soil.
Importance of Soil Ph Level
Each crop has its own pH Level requirement. Soil Ph may promote increase or
decrease in crop yield. The relevance of soil PH in crop production can’t be stressed out
as it influences the production of crops and activities of bacteria on soil and adversely
affect Crop Life Cycle (Nweke, 2013). Soil Ph not only influences the occurrence of disease
but it also determine the availability of the nutrients for the growth of plants (Azhiri-Sigari,
2019). Measuring the soil pH of land area is one of the factor in which a crop is able to
absorb the nutrients of the soil which is detrimental to its growth (Collado, 2015).
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The Integration of ICT into Agriculture
Currently, the continuous thrive and integration of ICT in agriculture had provide
better opportunities for farmers in dealing with issues and challenges on crop
management. It created a new and an improved venue for the farmers as well as with the
agricultural experts to communicate and share their respective ideas about the
development of agricultural practices. These practices would be beneficial in matters
pertaining to handling crops, its cultivation and production of high quality crops. Farmers
already have basic knowledge on the use of tradition and ICTs based communication
systems (P. Martin, 2009). But, it is not yet known on what ICT tools that are affordable
on small scale farmer in accessing this agricultural information (Churi, 2013). There are
various support system and tools that provides strategic and tactical farm decision but
the target of these tools is not on small scale farmers and workers that works at village
levels. That is why a simple an interactive applications that provide information to farmers
were not addressed properly. There is no unified framework that will supply on different
users with diverse technical and socio-economic background.
Decision Support System as Tool for Selecting Crops
Identifying agricultural products plays a significant role in agriculture. This result
in increasing of crop production and much better in planning and gaining more income
(Kumar et. Al, 2015). A Decision Support System is an interactive information technology
system that aid users in creating and applying decisions (Carter et. al.1992). It responds
rapidly to any changes and specifics requirements and assist but does not automate the
process in decision making.
As agriculture is in the middle of powerful changes due to industrialization and
modernization, overall increased risk, environmental limitations and land use conflicts,
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decision support systems has been the high priority for farmers, technicians and
researchers. (Mir S. A. et. Al, 2015). Because of these changes and demands, different
models has been implemented successfully. Various academic and scientific institutions
made computerized DSS as a tool of packaging biological and technical information to
become easily accessible and useful in different users in just a short span of time. There
are numerous interactive, user-friendly computer system which are becoming the rule,
rather than the exception. One of these challenges in the development of DSS is how they
will be delivered and be used by different industry and policy maker. Adding it up,
adoption to continuing climate change, process planning, hazard mitigation and new
scientific information with local and indigenous knowledge that are being pointed out for
sustainability of vulnerable areas.
In agriculture the decision support system provides assistance in terms of crop
planning and selection. It assist decision makers in understanding the decision problem
as well as the effect of choices (de Villiers, 2018).
Fuzzy Logic Approach in Decision Support Systems
Fuzzy Logic is a technique in understanding, quantifying and dealing with vague,
ambiguous and uncertain characteristics, ideas and judgments (Metaxiotis, 2004). Fuzzy
logic was developed and proposed by Zadeh (Zadeh, 1965) in order to interpret vague
data which resembled linguistic and human logic form which is more closely than
conventional logical system. Fuzzy logic focuses on modelling imprecise modes of
reasoning the plays an important role in the remarkable human ability to make rational
decisions in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision. Fuzzy rules provides
flexibility in the design of a decision support model (Mark, et al., 1995). In a DSS a
hierarchical rule base can be created to reflect the hierarchical nature of the different
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criteria in order to measure the supporting model sustainability. With the combination of
fuzzy logic, it gives a superior methodology which overcome problems such as the
problem of non-commensurate units, providing ranking of procedures of the solutions
and the discrimination on different attribute values.
A study being conducted by F. Jawad Et. Al denotes that a Fuzzy Logic Approach
can help the farmers to make right decisions of cultivating the appropriate crop (F. Jawad
et. Al, 2016). The use of a decision algorithms with the aid of understandable classifier to
recover the information based on the interaction of the user led to a smaller decision
which give a better test performance for classifying crops (Salleh 2013).
2.2. Review of Related Systems
Below are the system that are related to the proposed system to be developed.
These crop selection system are being selected since it supports and provides decision
when it comes to selecting crop.
MarketLight
MarketLight by Thompson Reuters (Prakash & Velu, 2009) is a mobile application
that provide a local weather information and crop information. The application also
provide information about the market for crops. The information the system gives to the
users are the type of fertilizer to be used in the field and how deep the seed must be
planted. Because of its information from the market, the application provides profitability
rate of crops thru market prices. The application also provides mitigation of weather-
related risk thru forecasting and improved knowledge on crop cultivation through its
advisory. The system does not provide a crop calendar and other farm management
practices.
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Development of Web-based Decision Support System for Field-based Crop
Management
Figure 1. Data input GUI of GZ-AgriGIS
The adoption and use of a web-based system that enabled site-specific
agricultural domain knowledge and analytical models had assisted the crop management
decisions of farmers from the region of Guangzhou, China. The said system developed by
Zhang and Sha (2007) was called GZ-AgriGIS applied decision support method whose main
goal is to recommend farmers the proper crop management decision in the use of
fertilizers and irrigation in their farming methods. As the system was developed as an
online service supported by the application of agricultural domain knowledge, it allowed
farmers to have an easier means in acquiring scientific guidance on how they manage
their crops efficiently and cost-effective which would result to better productivity.
The system also uses the concept of domain knowledge wherein it is generally
represented by different but related tables in which all information such as fertilizer was
stored in a relational database. Moreover, the database expression and the logical
expression applied were needed to construct models which were used logically to build a
knowledge network. The said domain knowledge then provides answers to the queries of
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the farmers on crop management through the analysis of the crop features, the
environment conditions, the possible fertilizers and the amount of fertilizer needed to be
applied on the farm field and other factors on crop management.
In summary, the system itself incorporated with domain knowledge and models
as well as the integration of GIS technology became a useful tool in assisting the farmers
in dealing with crops however, it is limited to the areas on fertilizer application and
irrigation depending on the crops cultivated.
The DSSAT cropping system model
Figure 2 . DSSAT System Main Menu Interface showing selection of a maize nitrogen x
irrigation study
The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) is a kind of
software application program that provide around 42 crops with simulation models to
help to aid farmers for an effective use of the models. This software compromise of
database management programs for weather, crop management, soil, utilities and
application programs. The site provides an on-farm and precision management,
assessment on climate variability and climate change, water use adn long-term soil
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sustainability. Crop models are being made that requires daily weather data, soil data,
profile information and detailed crop management which serves as an input. Simulations
are being made prior to planting date. DSSAT is a combination of different databases
which includes crop, soil and weather databases together with crop models and
application programs in order to generate a multi-year outcome on management of crop.
Development of an Expert System for Personalized Crop Planning
Figure 3. Output rice variety
Figure 4. Crop Calendar Example
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Rice has been the most widely consumed staple food most especially in Asia. As
a matter of fact, Thailand alone cultivates more than 200 varieties of rice, each of which
have distinct properties in terms of environment adaptation.
This has become the basis for Kawtrakul, Amorntarat and Charlekha (n.d.) to
create a rice crop planning system that will be based on a knowledge engineering
approach with hybrid knowledge representation in a form of ontologies and rules. The
said system will function as a recommendation system that aimed to gain better
productivity by supporting the farmers in making crop management decisions. The system
gives suggestions regarding which variety of rice the farmer can cultivate on a particular
land area and a cop calendar generation system that will generate a schedule for farmers
to plan farm activities for effective rice growing.
In order for the system to recommend a suitable rice variety, the farmer needs to
provide all the necessary land information. The system itself will infer results based on
the land information provided by the farmers and compare it to the rule sets created by
the agricultural experts that made up the knowledge base. It was categorized into 3
classes and that includes geographic-based rules that focuses on land information; the
rice variety-based rules that provides criteria on identifying suitable rice variety and the
temporal-based rules that were created to specify the impact of the planting period and
season to the specified rice variety as well as the risk of the yield loss from diseases, pests
and weather. Crop calendar will then be generated when all the necessary information
has been added and the rice variety has already been selected.
Furthermore, as for the system’s functionality, it was tested for verification and
it is found out that it is __ consistent on the recommendations if the experts were to give
23
it themselves therefore, it is proven that it could be an effective tool in assisting farmers
in their crop management decisions.
KrishiMantra: Agricultural Recommendation System
Figure 5 - Identification of nearest warehouse
Kumar, et al. (2013) developed a web-based architecture that generates
agricultural recommendations using spatial data and agricultural knowledge bases. The
said knowledge base of the system functions as a domain expert in which it provides
recommendations and creates an avenue for farmers to gain information about a specific
query that the farmer had sent in which it could be GIS data, crop knowledge base or
both. The system will then display the result of the query through a mobile device which
was based on climate conditions and geographic data. As a whole, the system will make
use of an approach that integrates the application of GIS and ontologies that composes
the system’s knowledge repositories to generate effective and fruitful recommendations
for a productive farming method.
24
Decision Support System for Seed Selection using Spatially-Reference Soil Data
Figure 6- Area selection screen
Figure 7 - Results form, final display
According to Patrick Martin (P. Martin, 2009) that a decision support system can
be an effective tool or method selecting seed using soil type being planted as well as the
seed characteristic. By ranking it according to its suitability, it can be a good use making
decision in the future planting session. It was also suggested that a good investigation for
investigating and making decisions for seeds selection are data that may affect the field
like weather data and satellite imagery.
25
Comparison of Related System Features to the Developed System Features
Title of Related System Input Variables

Predict Provides Accessible to
Web-Based (Spatial,
upcoming Various Crop Small Scale
Application Environment,
Weather Suggestions Farmer
Both)
GZ-AgriGIS No Both No Yes No

Expert System for Personalized Crop Planning No Both No No Yes
DSSAT No Both No Yes No
KrishiMantra: Agricultural Recommendation System Yes Both No Yes No
MarketLight No Both No Yes No
Decision Support System for Seed Selection Using Spatially
No Spatial No Yes Yes
Referenced Soil Data
Proposed System Yes Both Yes Yes Yes
Table 1: Comparison Matrix
26
CHAPTER III
3. Technical Background
3.1. Software Requirements
PHP (Hypertext Preprocessor) is the one of the popular interpreted scripting language
which is commonly used in web applications. PHP is an open-source and free which is
hugely popular, interpreted scripting language commonly used for web applications. It
is suited for web development which provides fast, pragmatic and flexible in creating
websites. This will be used for developing the system since the project will mainly be a
web-based application.PHP code may be embedded into HTML code, or it can be used
in combination with various web template systems, web content management systems,
and web frameworks. PHP code is usually processed by a PHP interpreter implemented
as a module in the web server or as a Common Gateway Interface (CGI) executable. The
web server combines the results of the interpreted and executed PHP code, which may
be any type of data, including images, with the generated web page. PHP code may also
be executed with a command-line interface (CLI) and can be used to implement
standalone graphical applications.
Sublime Text Editor.
Sublime Text is a proprietary cross-platform source code editor with a Python
application programming interface (API). It natively supports many programming
languages and markup languages, and functions can be added by users with plugins,
typically community-built and maintained under free-software licenses. The proponent
used this editor since the program is easy to use and convenient and at the same time it
provides a good formatting of codes.
Codeigniter
27
CodeIgniter is a powerful PHP framework with a very small footprint, built for PHP
coders who need a simple and elegant toolkit to create full-featured web applications.
CodeIgniter is an Application Development Framework is aa toolkit for building web
sites using PHP. Its goal is to enable to develop projects much faster than writing code
from scratch, by providing a rich set of libraries for commonly needed tasks, as well as a
simple interface and logical structure to access these libraries. CodeIgniter creatively
focus on project by minimizing the amount of code needed for a given task. The
proponent will be using codeigniter for development of the system since it is fast reliable
and at the same time speed is significant.
MySql
MySql is an open source relational database management system (RDBMS).[6] Its
name is a combination of "My", the name of co-founder Michael Widenius's daughter,[7]
and "SQL", the abbreviation for Structured Query Language. The MySQL development
project has made its source code available under the terms of the GNU General Public
License, as well as under a variety of proprietary agreements. MySQL was owned and
sponsored by a single for-profit firm, the Swedish company MySQL AB, now owned by
Oracle Corporation.[8] For proprietary use, several paid editions are available, and offer
additional functionality.
WampServer
WAMPServer’ which is an open-source Windows web development environment. It
comes with a service manager as a tray icon. This enables an easy management of the
server and easy installation of multiple releases of Apache, MySQL and PHP as add-ons.
With WAMPServer the installation process is automated and you can secure your setting
files while making any changes over your web servers. You can experience a great
28
flexibility with ‘WAMPServers’ as enabling and disabling services of WAMPServer is just
a matter of clicks.
Microsoft Excel
In this study, Microsoft Excel was used to preprocess the data used for prediction. At the
same time It is also one of the tools that were used to derived the model for the
prediction of the weather.
29
CHAPTER IV
4. Design and Methodology
4.1. Conceptual Framework
Figure 8 – Conceptual Framework
The proposed model will be implemented based on the conceptual framework
generated above (Figure 1). The project will be implemented as a web-based decision
support system. The system maintains an online database which stores all of the data
being inputted in the system. For climate data like precipitation and rainfall, historical
data will be used in order to predict the future climate data. Other data like spatial data
and knowledge domain will be collected on related government and private agency for
consolidation and will be inputted in the system once it is done being consolidated.
30
Knowledge base will also be created where all valuable resource related on crop
management and planting methodology will be stored.
The collected data from external sources will undergo analysis and reasoning in order
to give recommendations, data analytics and prediction to be used by the farmers.
Observation from the given recommendation from the system will also be gathered. Crop
information module gather all of the information like its crops attribute. This information
will undergo data mining techniques. Once these information are being analyze together
with other knowledge and data, this will be stored in databases for further usage. The
recommendation module will return recommendation based on the user inputs and
gather all of those stored information that were processed.
4.2. Development Model
Figure 9 – Iterative and incremental Development Process
The proponent used Iterative and Incremental Development Methodology.
The Iterative and Incremental model was developed to overcome the weaknesses of
the waterfall model. It starts with an initial planning and ends with deployment with
the cyclic interactions in between. The basic idea behind this method is to develop a
system through repeated cycles (iterative) and in smaller portions at a time
31
(incremental), allowing software developers to take advantage of what was learned
during development of earlier parts or versions of the system (Larman and Basili,
2003).
Requirements and Planning Phase
The proponent have gone through planning in pursuing the study during the
initial stage of the development of the system. This is where the system are being
planned on how it will work and identify its possible initial functions.
During the requirements and planning phase this is where the idea of the
system were taken place. Interviews from agricultural-related offices and agencies
like the Department of Agriculture where being conducted in order to materialize
the said project. Also, research were thoroughly made and searched for related
literature in order to satisfy and support the claims.
After the planning was finished, requirements and other information were
being gathered to formulate effective models and designs. This is where the
proponent gathered appropriate tools and technique to be used.
Analysis and Design Phase
In analysis and Design Phase, the design of the system will ensure and
competent with the standards of the potential users. First thing is to understand
which data and information should be or not available in the system and must be
shown in an organized way. During this phase, the proponent analyse the data being
collected and designed the GUI needed for the user.
Data Analysis. In this phase, is where the analysis of data took place. The
proponent gathered different data from different agency and online sources
32
to be used for analysis and later on for implementation. Collected data from
the Department of Science and Technology were used for to predict the
future weather values. Time series analysis will be used in predicting
weather. The researcher used time series analysis in order to predict the
possible climate data on a certain period. Time series model is used in order
to analyze the past observation in order to forecast future environmental
data in Davao Oriental. Time series has four component which includes
trend, seasonality, cyclicality and irregularity
The consolidated monthly data will use Moving Average (MA[4]) Model.
Moving Average is the process of getting the average of a certain data. After
getting all of the moving average of the all the monthly data, it undergoes
another moving average specifically the Center Moving Average (CMA). By
using the formula,
𝑛−1
1
𝐶𝑀𝐴 = ∑ 𝑃𝑀 − 𝑖
𝑛
𝑖=0
We can get the CMA and this is use for approximating the trend cycle
component. After all of the CMA is calculated, we get the seasonal-error
component (SR) of the series or the percent moving average. This is made by
dividing the difference data to the center moving average. The formula used
is:
𝑌
𝑆𝑅 =
𝐶𝑀𝐴
where Y = data
CMA = Computed Center Moving Average
33
After the Seasonal Error has been computed, the unadjusted
Seasonal Index (USI) was computed. The data is arranged by month (January
- December) in order to have a single value for each month. The adjusting
factor were computed by dividing the number of months to the result of the
unadjusted seasonal index (USI) and result to adjusted seasonal index. The
result of the adjusted seasonal index was 12 since the data being study was
monthly. The formula used is:
𝐴𝑆𝐼 = 𝑈𝑆𝐼 ∗ 𝐴𝐹
By deseasonalizing data, we divide the difference data to the adjusted index.
This was obtain by using the formula:
D = Y / ASI
The following computation was to get the trend values. By using Microsoft
Excel we use the regression tool to get the coefficients and derive in the
equation :
𝑇𝑡 = 𝑎 + (𝑏 ∗ 𝑡)
Where Tt = trend value at period t
a = intercept value
b = slope of the trend line.
t = time
Using the trend values the forecast data were created. This is made by
multiplying the trend data values by their seasonal indices. The formula use
is:
𝐹 = 𝑇 ∗ 𝐴𝑆𝐼
34
Lastly to get the forecasted value of a certain time, the equation generated
will be multiplied to the deseasonalized data. The result generated will be
the forecasted value of the month. Moreover, the Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) will be used in order to determine the accuracy of
the forecast. The formula is:
𝑛
1 |𝑦𝑎 − 𝑦𝑓 |
𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 = ∑
𝑛 𝑦𝑎
𝑎=1
Where ya = Actual data
Yf = Forecasted data
N = total number of data
Fuzzy Rule-Base Modelling. In order to build the fuzzy inference system, we
need to discover the vital parameters in crop selection. We select the
parameters which are dubiousness is regularly experienced. The output of
the system is the crop to be planted in an area and planting preparation,
where the main parameter being considered are soil ph level, temperature,
soil type, humidity, rainfall amount and slope percentage. The system to be
developed revolves around this parameters.
The fuzzy inference system to be developed consist of the following:
 Transformation of crisp variables to fuzzy variables (Fuzzification)
 Setting-up fuzzy if-then rules
 Converting Fuzzy output into crisp number (Deffuzification)
35
Figure 10. Fuzzy Inference System Framework
Step 1: Transformation of crisp variables to fuzzy variables (Fuzzification)
We need to convert the crisp value of the input variables into a fuzzy
variables which is called fuzzification. During the fuziffication process, the
proponent will derive the membership function of each input and will be
presented into a linguistic variables. For the membership function, we are
going to use trapezoidal membership function. One of the advantage of
using trapezoidal membership function is the simplicity of it. The
computation for its membership will be easy. Trapezoidal function is defined
by a lower limit a, an upper limit d, a lower support limit b, and an upper
support limit c, where a < b < c < d (Figure 11).
36
Figure 11. Trapezoidal membership function
Step 2: Setting-up fuzzy if-then rules
If-then rules are connected to the algorithms in order to determine the
decisions, actions, feedback or output which is based on the prevailing input
information. The if-then rules compose of two parts, where “if” part refers
to the input information which required in order to establish the degree of
membership and triggers the action “then” part of the rule (Zadeh 1988).
The format for the if-then rule is:
If (Soil_Type is favorable) and (ph_level is favorable) and
(water_requirement is enough) and (temperature is favourable) then (Plant
is Highly Recommended).
Step 3: Converting Fuzzy output into crisp number (Deffuzification)
In this project the type of fuzzy inference system uses Weighted Average
Method for Deffuzification. The crisp output ocan be generated by using the
Weighted Average Method defuzzification method with an equation of:
∑ 𝜇(𝑥).𝑥
𝑌= ∑ 𝜇(𝑥)
where ∑ denotes the algebraic summation and x is the element with
maximum membership function.
Designing the System Interface. The system interface of the project is a web portal
where farmers and agriculturists can get information about the crop being suggested
and its corresponding suggestions and recommendation.
37
Figure 12. Add plant wireframe Initial Layout
Figure 13. Crop Analyzer Input page Initial Layout
Figure 14. Result Page Initial Layout
The above figures shows the initial layout of the system. Figure 12 shows the
possible layout in adding the plant, while figure 13 shows the input page for the
38
crop analyser showing the possible input for the page and on figure 14 shows
the result page when the user will submit the input to the system which includes
the input details the weather prediction and the suggested crop and their
methods and preparations on their farm.
Implementation and Testing Phase
Implementation Phase is where the creation of the system will happen. This
is where the hardware to be used, guidelines to be followed, objective to be attained,
and codes to be programmed are being organized and the building operation takes
place.
Testing is the important phase because it will determine the flaws and
improvement of the system. The developer will be the one to test first the system
and any corrections will be corrected right to away. It will also be tested by others
also in order to gather comments or suggestion that will help improve the system.
System Evaluation
Evaluation of the system would be the next step after the testing where the
employee would evaluate how the system performs and functions by giving their
comments and suggestions. They will judge the system if it met the standards.
After the system has thoroughly tested and evaluated by the potential user,
the system can now be developed along with the user manual.
39
CHAPTER V
5. Results and Discussion
In this chapter, all of the result from the study will be presented in the Section. The
following are the discussions on how the proponent achieved each objective mentioned in
Chapter 1. This section also will discuss the on how the proponent come up and created the
project.
To investigate the potential of a decision support system using environmental and spatial factor
in managing crop selection and planting methodology.
The researcher was able to develop a system where the environment and spatial factor
are being considered in managing crop selection and selecting the planting methodology to be
made.
To get the result of the type of crop to be selected to be planted in an area, there are five
(5) attributes that needs to be inputted by the user in order to generate a result. This includes
latitude, Longitude, soil Ph level, soil type, and target date to plant. Other attribute like
temperature, humidity and rainfall, does not need to be inputted since the system automatically
determined this attribute based on the target months to plant.
We implemented the selection through fuzzy logic approach. We have already identified
the different factor and created its membership functions. Every crops has different membership
function according to the requirement of each variables as shown on Figure 15-20.
40
Figure 15. Trapezoidal membership function of Bell Pepper
Figure 16 . Trapezoidal membership function of Eggplant
Figure 17. Trapezoidal membership function of Tomato
41
Figure 18. Trapezoidal membership function of Lettuce
Figure 19. Trapezoidal membership function of Carrots
Figure 20. Trapezoidal membership function of Ground Peanut
We have also created the different If-then Rules which composed of 50 rules for each crop. The
following are the rules being created:
42
R1: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “low ph” AND temperature is “low
temp” and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN Not recommended
temp” and rainfall requirement is “favorable” THEN Not recommended
temp” and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN Not recommended
R4: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “low ph” AND temperature is
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN Not recommended
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “favorable” fairly recommended
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN not recommended
R7: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “low ph” AND temperature is “high
temp” and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN not recommended
temp” and rainfall requirement is “favorable” THEN not recommended
temp” and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN not recommended
R10: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “favorable” AND temperature is “low”
and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN not recommended
and rainfall requirement is “favorable” THEN fairly recommended
and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN not recommended
43
R13: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “favorable” AND temperature is
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN fairly recommended
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “favorable” THEN not recommended
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN recommended
R16: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “favorable” AND temperature is “high”
and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN fairly recommended
and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN fairly recommended
R19: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “high ph” AND temperature is “low
R22: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “high ph” AND temperature is
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN not recommended
R23: IF Soil type is “not favorable” AND soil ph level is “high ph” AND temperature is “high
44
R26: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “low ph” AND temperature is “low temp”
and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN Not recommended
and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN Not recommended
R29: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “low ph” AND temperature is “favorable”
and rainfall requirement is “favorable” recommended
R32: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “low ph” AND temperature is “high temp”
R35: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “favorable” AND temperature is “low” and
rainfall requirement is “low” THEN fairly recommended
rainfall requirement is “favorable” THEN recommended
45
rainfall requirement is “high” THEN fairly recommended
R38: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “favorable” AND temperature is
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “low” THEN recommended
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “favorable” THEN highly recommended
“favorable” and rainfall requirement is “high” THEN recommended
R41: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “favorable” AND temperature is “high”
and rainfall requirement is “favorable” THEN recommended
R44: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “high ph” AND temperature is “low temp”
R47: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “high ph” AND temperature is “favorable”
R48: IF Soil type is “favorable” AND soil ph level is “high ph” AND temperature is “high temp”
46
There were different recommendation were given by the system. One of this is the
amount of water to be given to plants or the daily water requirements of plants. We use Brinley-
Cradle method in determining the water requirements for the plants.
We need the coordinate of the area since it will be used for water requirement
calculation.
Latitude North Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
South July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
60° .15 .20 .26 .32 .38 .41 .40 .34 .28 .22 .17 .13
55 .17 .21 .26 .32 .36 .39 .38 .33 .28 .23 .18 .16
50 .19 .23 .27 .31 .34 .36 .35 .32 .28 .24 .20 .18
45 .20 .23 .27 .30 .34 .35 .34 .32 .28 .24 .21 .20
40 .22 .24 .27 .30 .32 .34 .33 .31 .28 .25 .22 .21
35 .23 .25 .27 .29 .31 .32 .32 .30 .28 .25 .23 .22
30 .24 .25 .27 .29 .31 .32 .31 .30 .28 .26 .24 .23
25 .24 .26 .27 .29 .30 .31 .31 .29 .28 .26 .25 .24
20 .25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .30 .29 .28 .26 .25 .25
15 .26 .26 .27 .28 .29 .29 .29 .28 .28 .27 .26 .25
10 .26 .27 .27 .28 .28 .29 .29 .28 .28 .27 .26 .26
5 .27 .27 .27 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .27 .27 .27
47
0 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27
Table 2 – Mean Daily percentage (p) of Annual Daytime Hours for Different Latitudes
When the ETo was determined, we need to determine the crop factor (Kc) of a certain crops which
mainly depends on the type of crop, the growth stage of the crop and the climate (as shown on
table 3).
Initial Crop Development Mid season Late season

Total
stage stage stage stage
Barley/Oats/Wheat 120 15 25 50 30
150 15 30 65 40
Bean/green 75 15 25 25 10
90 20 30 30 10
Bean/dry 95 15 25 35 20
110 20 30 40 20
Cabbage 120 20 25 60 15
140 25 30 65 20
Carrot 100 20 30 30 20
150 25 35 70 20
Cotton/Flax 180 30 50 55 45
195 30 50 65 50
Cucumber 105 20 30 40 15
130 25 35 50 20
Eggplant 130 30 40 40 20
140 30 40 45 25
48
Grain/small 150 20 30 60 40
165 25 35 65 40
Lentil 150 20 30 60 40
170 25 35 70 40
Lettuce 75 20 30 15 10
140 35 50 45 10
Maize, sweet 80 20 25 25 10
110 20 30 50 10
Maize, grain 125 20 35 40 30
180 30 50 60 40
Melon 120 25 35 40 20
160 30 45 65 20
Millet 105 15 25 40 25
140 20 30 55 35
Onion/green 70 25 30 10 5
95 25 40 20 10
Onion/dry 150 15 25 70 40
210 20 35 110 45
Peanut/Groundnut 130 25 35 45 25
140 30 40 45 25
Pea 90 15 25 35 15
100 20 30 35 15
Pepper 120 25 35 40 20
49
210 30 40 110 30
Potato 105 25 30 30 20
145 30 35 50 30
Radish 35 5 10 15 5
40 10 10 15 5
Sorghum 120 20 30 40 30
130 20 35 45 30
Soybean 135 20 30 60 25
150 20 30 70 30
Spinach 60 20 20 15 5
100 20 30 40 10
Squash 95 20 30 30 15
120 25 35 35 25
Sugarbeet 160 25 35 60 40
230 45 65 80 40
Sunflower 125 20 35 45 25
130 25 35 45 25
Tomato 135 30 40 40 25
180 35 45 70 30
Table 3– Approximate Duration of Growth Stages for Various Field Crops
50
Predict the upcoming rainfall and precipitation of the area based on the historical record of rainfall
and precipitation data of an area to be used for supporting tools for crop selection and
planting methodology.
For the Environmental Data, datasets were gathered at the automated weather station
of Department of Science and Technology which is located at Baganga, Davao Oriental. These data
were used as a source for forecasting environmental attributes. Datasets were consolidated in
order to come up a monthly result since the data is recorded every 15 minutes. In order to come
up a daily record of data, all of the data recorded every 15 minutes were being averaged on a
daily basis. And in order to get the monthly result, the average result of the daily data were also
been averaged.
There were some monthly data that were missing because according to DOST – ASTI,
there were months where the Automated Weather Station encountered problems which resulted
of uncollected data on some of the months. In order to fill the missing data, we calculated the
average of the same month where the missing data was missing.
After we have filled up all of the missing data we proceed analysing the data.
Generated Equation
Minimum Temperature Tt = 25.644 - 0.0132t
Maximum Temperature Tt = 30.079 - 0.0280t
Air Temperature Tt = 26.049 + 0.0127t
Rainfall Amount Tt = 319.680 - 2.186t
Rainfall Intensity Tt = 0.490-0.003t
Rainfall Duration Tt = 67.734-0.180t
Humidity Tt = 83.487-0.0340t
TABLE 4. The Equation of different Factors for forecasting
51
Table 4 shows the equation or the model we have generated after we have undergone
time series analysis. And on table 5is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error of the predicted result.
The result shows that the Rainfall data prediction gives us high percentage error.
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Minimum Temperature .120 or 12%
Maximum Temperature .052 or 5.2%
Air Temperature 0.016 or 1.6%
Rainfall Amount 1.365 or 135.6%
Rainfall Intensity 10.61 or 1061%
Rainfall Duration 0.753 or 75.3%
Humidity 0.020 or 2%
TABLE 5. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error of different Factors for forecasting Data
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE forcasted
52
Figure 21. Schematic of the actual and Predicted average monthly minimum temperature of
Baganga,Davao Oriental during the Year 2012-2016
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Max Temperature Forecasted Max Temperature
Figure 22. Schematic of the actual and Predicted average monthly Maximum temperature of
Baganga,Davao Oriental during the Year 2012-2016
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Air Temperature Series2
53
Figure 23. Schematic of the actual and Predicted average monthly Air Temperature of Baganga,
Davao Oriental during the Year 2012-2016
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rainfall Amount Forecasted Rainfall Amount
Figure 24. Schematic of the actual and Predicted Monthy Rainfall of Baganga,Davao Oriental
during the Year 2012-2016
Develop a supporting tools using spatial factor and environment factor that will provide an
integrated knowledge-base for crop selection that will suit the area and identify what
would be the best planting methodology on an area.
The system is composed of four (4) module which are the following:
Dashboard Module. In this module, it shows all of the summary and information of the
system like monthly forecast temperature, humidity and rainfall. The dashboard also
shows what are the recent activities being made in the system and displayed who recently
login the system, made a crop selection and manipulates data from the systems like
managing the plants. The dashboard module also shows the top crop being suggested
54
based on the result on crop selector module and the list of crop data being stored in the
systems.
Figure 25. Dashboard Screenshot
Plant Management Module. For the plant management module, this is where all of the
crop data are being inputted. Different function are included in the system like adding
new plants and editing existing plant.
Figure 26. Add new plant form
55
Figure 26. shows the data of plants that needs to be inputted on the system. Plant
name, Maximum and Minimum Soil PH Requirements, Minimum and Maximum
Temperature Requirements Soil requirements and Plant growth stage data were
inputted.
Figure 27. List of Plants added in the system
Crop Selector Module. In this section, this is where the identification and selection are
being made through the following input. There are six (6) parameters required in order
to provide the identification and selection function. The user will input data in a certain
area such as latitude, Longtitude, soil type, ph level, farm slope and target planting date.
The system uses fuzzy logic approach in order to identify what crop is the most suitable
in the area.
56
Figure 28. Crop Selector Input Page
Figure 29. Result Page showing the predicted weather on a specified dates and crop
being suggested
57
Figure 30. Result Page showing the suggested planting preparation of a crop
Figure 29 shows the result page for the crop selector. This page shows the data
being inputted in the system. The page also show the predicted weather details based on
the target planting date. Weather details includes the minimum temperature, maximum
temperature, temperature, rainfall amount, rainfall intensity and humidity. Also on figure
30, the result page the plant being suggested and shows the amount of water to be given
to plants, some basic information about the plants and the different preparation to be
made considering the different factor being inputted.
Environmental Forecaster Module. In this module this will only display the weather
prediction within the province of Davao Oriental.
58
Figure 31. Environmental Forecast Page showing a 5-month prediction of weather
Figure 31 shows the page of the forecasted weather. A five-month prediction being shown
on the page based on the current month of the day.
Determine the following attribute that would best fit for selection of crops and planting
methodology.
As the progress of the development of the system, the following attribute were already
determined for crop selection. The following criteria were used in order to determine the most
suitable site for selected crop:
 Spatial Attribute Data
o Soil Type
o Ph Level
o Land Elevation/Slope
 Environment Attribute Data
o Rainfall amount
o Air Temperature (Maximum and Minimum Temperature)
o Humidity
59
According to the background knowledge being gathered from interviews and data
collection, all of the factor being mentioned above are considered important in agriculture and
most especially in executing in the farm area in order to make the particular crop be suitable.
60
CHAPTER VI
6. Summary, Conclusions and Recommendations
This chapter presents the summary of the research, the conclusion drawn and
recommendations for future researches with similar topic and concerns.
6.1. Summary
As stated on Chapter 1, the aim of the study is to develop a web-based decision support
system that will be used for selecting appropriate crop to be planted in an area.
Moreover, the study aims to achieve the following objective:
 To investigate the potential of a decision support system using environmental
and spatial factor in managing crop selection and planting methodology.
 Predict the upcoming rainfall and precipitation of the area based on the
historical record of rainfall and precipitation data of an area to be used for
supporting tools for crop selection and planting methodology.
 Develop a supporting tools using spatial factor and environment factor that
will provide an integrated knowledge-base for crop selection that will suit the
area and identify what would be the best planting methodology on an area.
 Determine the following attribute that would best fit for selection of crops
and planting methodology.
The study was designed to aid the farmer in decision making process when it comes to
crop selection. Environment and Spatial Factor were being considered in order to provide
a selected crop output. Fuzzy logic were being used for crop selection and time series
analysis for predicting the weather data. The output result were daily water needs of
plants, crop preparation and preparation of land according to the input factors.
61
6.2. Conclusions
It appears that having a decision support system in selecting crops in a farm area may
lead to an effective method in order to select appropriate crops based on spatial and
environment attributes of an area. We have concluded out of the objective that:
 There is a great potential of developing a web-based decision support system
by using the spatial and environmental factor as to be considered for selection
of crops. The decision Support system being created for Davao oriental
provide a solution in order to determine the most suitable crops in an area
based on the crop requirements. The major target for this system are farmers,
agriculturist and field officer where the designed are being created where they
can use the system despite having minimal knowledge in computers.
 Prediction of the upcoming rainfall and precipitation of an area based on
historical records of rainfall and precipitation provides a big help in decision
support for crop selection. It helps to identify whether the crop is suitable
especially that water is one of the major factor to be considered in planting
such plants. Predicting upcoming rainfall using time series analysis is not a
good prediction model since there are data that provides zero values which
provides a bad result if using time series analysis.
 We were able to develop a supporting tools by using spatial and
environmental factors which provide an integrated knowledge-base for crop
selection and suits the type of crops to be planted in an area and give the
planting methodology to be applied. By using environmental and spatial
factor, we were able to provide information and knowledge to farmers on
what is the most suitable crops and at the same time what are the things that
62
needs to be done during the crop duration. Moreover the system also provides
land preparations like lime requirements in order to meet the desired ph level
of the area and at the same time the required water for each plant.
 We were to be able to determine the following attribute the can help to select
crop and planting methodology which includes includes land elevation, soil
ph level, soil type of an area, rainfall amount, maximum and minimum
temperature, humidity and rainfall.
In connection with the development of the system, the system demonstrated the
ability to solve problem like selecting the suitable crops to be planted on the area. By
providing a list of crops to the end user, the system delivers an aid in crop planning and
decision making for their desired planting date.
6.3. Recommendations
Throughout the development of the system, there are several recommendation being
made for future study which are the following:
1. Optimum yield of crops and market profitability should be considered. Despite that
the system can recognize what would be the suitable crops to be planted in an area,
yield and profit generation are also the factors that the farmer or agriculturist are
being considered.
2. In forecasting weather, a thorough study should be made in order to know what
would be the most suitable weather model to be used in order to provide a more
accurate result.
3. Other factors like soil properties nutrition and composition like nitrogen, phosphorus,
potassium, calcium, magnesium and sulfur should also be considered or other
63
additional soil characteristic should be considered in order to enhance the
recommendation capability of the system. Additional plant attribute like drought
tolerance can also be considered.
4. It is also recommended that the system can also provide recommendation for pest
management.
5. Since the crop requirements are based on different researches and expert
experiences, the result for the crop suitability may be acceptable to some extent. In
order to make the result more reliable and be validated, field survey on particular
crop need to be done by means of the crop yield and also its economic factors.
64
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University of Southeastern Philippines

Iñigo Street, Bo. Obrero, Davao City

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR SELECTING CROP AND IDENTIFYING PLANTING

METHODOLOGY BASED ON ENVIRONMENT AND SPATIAL FACTOR USING FUZZY

Submitted to the Graduate School of Computing

1.1. Background of the Study

negative effects in terms of economic and environmental impacts on affected areas

livelihood. Moreover the unwelcome consequences and continuous expose to natural

disaster makes agriculture and natural resources become vulnerable.

Agriculture continues to be the major source of income and employment in the

(a variety of lemon), rubber, and cotton (Nations Encyclopedia, 2010).

An analysis Crop choice is frequently mentioned as a potential strategy to

following year, an even greater task yet.

Furthermore, the changes in temperature from time to time can be contributed

intervention and recommendation to address early recovery key issues is to provide

measures. (n.d., 2013)

These circumstances greatly causes significant changes on the farmers’ decisions

To address such problems, a decision support system model will be created in

data of the field.

1.2. Project Context

be planted as well as the best planting methodology to be used in a field. Predictive

1.3. Purpose and Description

identifying crop to be planted as well as the best planting methodology to be used in

historical data on weather, temperature and field precipitation as well as other

environmental and spatial factor.

to identify the crop to be planted and the planting methodology to be applied in a

The specific objective of the study are the following:

 To investigate the potential of a decision support system using environmental

and spatial factor in managing crop selection and planting methodology.

historical record of rainfall and precipitation data of an area to be used for

supporting tools for crop selection and planting methodology.

and planting methodology:

o Crop Data (Soil Requirements, Climatic requirements – temperature,

o Environmental Data Data (Annual highest and lowest temperature,

annual distribution of rainfall, field precipitation)

1.5. Scope and Limitation

for the purpose of merely an effective knowledge dissemination of the project.

Below are the scope and limitation:

This study is designed only for establishing model for determining

the following attribute:

o Crop Data (Ph Level Requirements, Soil Requirements, Climatic

requirements – temperature, rainfall, humidity)

o Spatial Data (Soil Type of Farm, Soil Ph Level, Slope and

o Environment Data (Annual highest and lowest temperature,

annual distribution of rainfall, field precipitation)

output for crops to be suggested by the system. The following crops to

be included in the system are Tomato, Eggplant, Bell Pepper, Lettuce,

Carrots, Onion, Peanut, Cabbage and Radish.

In specific, the researcher will be using time series analysis for

predicting rainfall, temperature, humidity and precipitation of an area.

Also, the researcher will be creating a web-based system that will be

planting methods specifically in Davao Oriental.

weather, humidity, temperature and rainfall.

2. Review of Related Literature and Systems

forecasting of weather that is essential in selecting seed.

2.1. Review of Related Literature

Agriculture Status in the Philippines and Davao Oriental Crops

most of its crops (Philippines - Agriculture, n.d.).

Banana, Cassava and Rubber.

The effect of climate change in agriculture at the global scale, is considered to

production and resource availability, which influence farmer decision-making and

need to develop climate-smart technologies available and accessible to the farmers

through creation of an enabling institutional environment (“Addressing the Impacts of