GSF

212
Environment,
Development and
Climate Change
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Planetary Boundaries
This framework identifies levels of
anthropogenic perturbations below which
the risk of destabilization of the Ecosystem
Services is likely to remain low—a “safe
operating space” for global societal
development.
Exploring a safe operating space for
humanity

Source: Science, 2015

Chaos, Non-linear and Abrupt Global
Environmental Change

Source: Science, 2015

Source: Science, 2015
Tipping elements of the climate system within the
Planetary boundaries
Arctic Sea Ice
Ice loss in Antarctica
Ice loss in Greenland
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polar-
vortex-what-is-the-2019-polar-vortex-
weather-event-and-is-global-warming-to-
blame/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polar-
vortex-what-is-the-2019-polar-vortex-
weather-event-and-is-global-warming-to-
blame/
Connection of Jet stream with Indian
Monsoon
 Graphical representation of the global biomass distribution by taxa.

Yinon M. Bar-On et al. PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1711842115

©2018 by National Academy of Sciences

Status of Ozone Layer

Source: NOAA
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/
nasa-study-first-direct-proof-of-ozone-hole-
recovery-due-to-chemicals-ban
Ocean Acidification
Source: Science, 2015
Source: Science, 2015
Source: Science, 2015
Estimated deforestation by type of forest and time
period, pre-1700-2000 – FAO (2012)
Global Deforestation (cumulative)

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

India forests – 100 years

95 Mha
90 Forest Conservation Act, 1982
85
80 Signifies
Tian et al 2014, Reddy et al 2018 actual
75 impleme
Colonial times
70 ntation
65 of the
Policy
60 Post-independence – Nehru era
55
50
45
1880 1950 1970 2005 2010

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
What is exacerbating the
Cauvery River Issue

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

"Although humanity has crossed four of nine
planetary boundaries I believe there is still
time to pull back from the brink and create a
sustainable future based on a circular
economy that continually reuses resources,
powered by renewable energy,” - Johan
Rockström.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/radical-
conservation/2018/jan/16/biodiversity-extinction-
tipping-point-planetary-boundary

Johan Rockstrom TEDx

Hothouse climate
Over exploitation of resources
lead to other local issues as well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXCKJFgsisQ

The crumbling coast: Mineral beach sand mining is eating

away Kerala's Alappad

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Plastic pollution

https://scroll.in/bulletins/193/redefining-the-journey-of-
plastic-part-1

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 GSF 212
Environment,
Development and
Climate Change
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
How do we know that Climate
Change is happening?

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

NASA
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Source: IRI

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Source: IRI

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Climate Change in India

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

 24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
1888
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
Temperature increase in Mumbai

1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Urban heat islands

2012
2016
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
 22
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
1883
1887
1892
1896
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1955
1959
1963
1967
Temperature increase in Bangalore

1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
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Rainfall

Global

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Great Indian Famine – 5.5 million dead

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
 Gadgil and
Gadgil, 2006

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Rajendran et al., 2013

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How its already impacting
extreme events

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
In Bn USD

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Additional material

https://www.skymetweather.com/content/climate-
change/climate-change-next-generation-may-not-have-
winters-every-year-lakes-could-get-ice-free/

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/melting-ice-sheets-may-
cause-climate-chaos-says-report-1989587

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

March 2018

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Curious case of Kerala

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Update on Kerala Floods

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
 European heat wave

Analysis for northern Europe suggests that climate change made

the heatwave more than twice as likely to occur in many places.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Cape-Town Zero water day

Likelihood of Cape Town water crisis tripled by climate change

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Evidence from across the
world
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-
affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

However, Climate Change
is not the only concern

Subsidence

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

How is it impacting food
security

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

 Stock to use ratio (%)

15
20
25
30
35
40

100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180

80
90
1962
1961
1963 1964
1965 1966
1967 1968
Revolution

1969 1970
1971 1972
1973 1974
1975
Begining of the Green

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1987 1986
1989 1988
1991 1990
1993 1992
1995 1994
FAO Real Food Price Index

1997 1996
1999 1998
2001 2000
2003
2002
2005
2004
2007
2006
Revolution?

2009
another Green

2011 2008
2010
crisis - Do we need

2013
2015 2012
2017
-5
15
35
55
75
Begining of a new food 95

-85
-65
-45
-25

Food balance (Prod-Cons)

Nair and Chaturvedi (in press)
Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-
9326/12/5/054007/downloadHRFigure/figure/erlaa6b0cf1

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

How CC is already impacting
Forests in India?
- Movement of species across latitudinal and altitudinal
gradient

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
What is driving Climate
Change?

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Rising CO2

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Source: IPCC, 2013; Physical Science Basis

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Radiative Forcing graphics

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 Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle

Perturbation of the global carbon cycle caused by anthropogenic activities,

averaged globally for the decade 2008–2017 (GtCO2/yr)

The budget imbalance is the difference between the estimated emissions and sinks.
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Le Quéré et al 2018; Ciais et al. 2013; Global Carbon Budget 2018
What is causing climate Change

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

The Idea of Carbon Budget

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/datablog/2017/ja
n/19/carbon-countdown-clock-how-much-of-the-worlds-
carbon-budget-have-we-spent

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Ideas of Equity, Justice,
Fairness
Apart from what we discussed in class, a good and
authentic read is available here:
https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/students/envs_4100/kl
insky_2009.pdf

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
 Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990
Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%)

Uncertainty is ±5% for

one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)

Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
 Emissions Projections for 2017

Global emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to rise by 2.0% in 2017
The global projection has a large uncertainty, ranging from +0.8% to +3.0%

Source: CDIAC; Jackson et al 2017; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
 Emissions Projections for 2018

Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 [range: +1.8% to +3.7%]
The global growth is driven by the underlying changes at the country level.

Source: CDIAC; Jackson et al 2018; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
 Top emitters: Fossil CO2 Emissions per capita

Countries have a broad range of per capita emissions reflecting their national circumstances

Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018

 Top emitters: Fossil CO2 Emission Intensity

Emission intensity (emission per unit economic output) generally declines over time.
In many countries, these declines are insufficient to overcome economic growth.

GDP is measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2010 US dollars.

Source: CDIAC; IEA 2017 GDP to 2015, IMF 2018 growth rates to 2017; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
 National Greenhouse
gas inventory

India’s latest greenhouse gas emission estimates are available here:

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/INDIA%20SECOND%20B
UR%20High%20Res.pdf
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Which companies are
responsible for emissions

ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and

Chevron

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Coal India Limited, NTPC Ltd, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC),
Reliance Industries.

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Polluter pays principle:
https://www.tribtalk.org/2018/09/14/polluters-should-
bear-a-fair-share-of-the-costs-of-responding-to-climate-
change/?_ga=2.44629805.889098956.1537025479-
2139527398.1537025479
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Carbon Disclosure Project

https://www.cdp.net/en

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How it may evolve in future

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What does climate change mean for India? – Based on
latest generation of climate models

Chaturvedi et al., 2012, in Baseline = 1961-1990

Current Science
First paper from India that used CMIP5 data. This paper is cited for about 150 times
How reliable are new climate change projections?

Chaturvedi et al., 2012, in Current Science

Model ensemble mean
Temperature change
relative to the pre-
industrial period

Chaturvedi et al., 2012, in

Current Science
Read the full paper here
http://www.environmentportal.in/files/file/Mult
i-
model%20climate%20change%20projection
s.pdf
Application of climate change projections in Impact
assessment studies in India
Globally first paper to
assess the impact of
Climate Change on
Himalayan Glaciers, post
IPCC controversy

Chaturvedi, et al with Anil

Kulkarni (2014) (Published
in climatic change)
The Model

Chaturvedi, et al (2014), Climatic Change

Current Climate
B= 2430 * α– 1200; R2 = 0.80---------------------------(Equation 1)
Climate change scenario
B’ = 2430 * α– 1200; R2 = 0.80----------------(Equation 2) – Accounts for
‘temp’ change
ΔB = α.ΔP---------------------------(Equation 3) – Accounts for ‘prec’ change
B = B’ + ΔB
Mass Balance Change
Projections

Errors bars for 2000

represent the uncertainty in
current estimates; future
uncertainty comes from
range in temperature
projections (21 models)

Chaturvedi, et al (2014),
Climatic Change
GLACIERS AT RISK OF EVENTUAL
DISAPPEARANCE

RCP 8.5
scenario: Basins
showing terminal
retreat by 2030s
are shown in
blue, by 2050s in
green and by
2080s in brown.

Chaturvedi, et al
(2014), Climatic
Change
The study could be read here:
• https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s1
0584-013-1052-5
Impact of climate change on forest
ecosystems

First DGVM based simulation for India

39% of the forest grids
Impact of climate change on
likely change under A2 vegetation distribution &
scenario by 2085
causing loss of C stock
Productivity
and biodiversity

1 = stable grids

2=forest grids
undergoing
change

Chaturvedi, 2010 & Chaturvedi et al., 2011

The paper can be read here
• https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s1
1027-010-9257-7
P S Roy et al 2015
Deadly heat waves in India under
climate change projections
https://www.dailyo.in/embed/e450e4
Source: Im, Pal, Eltahir, Sci. Adv. 2017;3:e1603322
Global efforts to solve the Climate
Change Problem