Predictability is an important characteristic of law governed phenomena .

it is an essential part
of the scientific method, sometimes called the hypothetic deductive experimental observation
method. In the first step, freely invented hypotheses are proposed , in the second reason , logic,
and mathematics are used to deduce quantitative implications of the hypotheses . The third,
observations and experiments. The best hypotheses is one that predicts observation or that
confirm verify or deny the implied theory, and more specifically the one hypotheses that leads
to quantitative measurement in agreement with the prediction.

Prediction are never in perfect mathematically agreement with the observation and
experimental measurement. Predictability is related to the idea of reproducibility, probabilities
are a priory, produced by theories.Statistic are the posterious result of experiments.

Using forecasting models

How do we assess such complex trends as are involved in the study, use and evolution of English
worldwide? The traditional approach to forecasting requires all significant factors to be identified. A
mathematical model is then constructed which shows how these influence each other and produce
the behaviour which is of interest. Future demand for electric power, for example, is usually forecast
in this way (below).

Such methods might be applied to forecasting the demand for English which is, after all, a little like
electricity consumption in the way that demand is related to a variety of economic and cultural
factors. Each ‘driver’ of English would be identified, the reasons why it led to demand for English
understood and its own future behaviour modelled. Indeed, such forecasting techniques based on
demographic models which predict how many children will be living where are used by governments
to anticipate the future need for teachers.

We draw on two forecasting models in this book to analyse the future of English. The first, which we
refer to as the ‘Hooke model’, was devised by the Australian economist Gus Hooke. The model
provides long-term forecasts of the global economy, including the education and training sector. It
also provides projections of the demand for different languages in education through to the year
2050.

The second forecasting model, the ‘engco model’ has been constructed by The English Company
(UK) to provide predictions of the global ‘influence’ of key languages, such as English, Spanish and

Mandarin. Just as the electricity example requires data from a weather forecasting model, so the
Hooke and engco models require input data from demographic and economic forecasts in order to
predict demand for languages. The Hooke model takes account of environmental development,
technical progress and technology transfer. The engco model draws on UN demographic projections
and a model for regional language shift.
Forecasting L1 and L2 speakers.

Of three linguistic communities which we identified earlier (first language, second language and EFL,
it is the first language community which is most easily forecast. Two main factors need to be
considered: future patterns of language shift and demographic trends including birth rate, migration
and so on.

Forecasting the use of a second language is a similar, but more complex process, more dependent
on accurate forecasting of language shift.