Rofikoh Rokhim

Dosen dan Peneliti, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Indonesia

Pendidikan:
• Ph.D. in Economics Université de Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France.
• Executive Education Chicago Booth School of Business, University of
Chicago, Chicago, USA.
• Executive Education Said Business School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
• Executive Education Stanford Business School, University of Standford, Palo
Alto, USA.
• Executive Education Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania.
• Executive Education Harvard Business School, University of Harvard, Boston,
USA.
• Executive Education Harvard Kennedy School, University of Harvard, Boston,
USA.
• Executive Program INSEAD, Asian Campus, Singapore.
• Executive Program Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (MIT), Boston, USA.
• Training For Trainer in Methods of Educations, Internationale Weiterbildung
und Entwicklung gGmbH, Berlin, Germany
Growth and GDP Structure Based on Sector in 2018
GDP Structure (%) GDP Growth (%)
Industry
Trade
Construction

Agriculture
Mining
Transportation & Warehousing
Financial Services & Insurance
Gov. Adm
Information and Communication
Education

Accommodation and Beverage

Real Estate
Other Service
Corporate Services
Electricity and Gas
Health Services & Social
Water Supply

Source: Central Bureau of Statistic, 2019

Centralized Development
Java Island domination as the GDP contributor creates development and economic
disparity amongst regions. The distribution of economic growth begins to move to
the eastern area.
REGIONS SHARE
ON GDP
KALIMANTAN SULAWESI

SUMATERA 8,20% 6,22% MALUKU, PAPUA AND

2016:7,9% WEST PAPUA
21,58% 2017:8,2%
2016:6,0%
2017:6,1% 2,47%
2016:22,0% Growth 2018:3,91%Growth 2018:6,65%
2017:21,7% 2016:2,5%
Growth 2018: 4,54% 2017:2,4%
BALI, WEST NUSA TENGGARA AND Growth 2018:6,99%
JAVA EAST NUSA TENGGARA

58,48% 3,05%
2016:58,5% 2016:3,1% Source: Central Bureau of Statistic
Data per 2019
2017:58,5% 2017:3,1%
Growth 2018:5,72% Growth 2017:2,68%
Regional Inflation Map 2018

NATIONAL INFLATION

Source: www.bi.go.id, 2019

Inflation by Expenditure Group
20

15

10

-5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Food Stuff 15,64 3,64 5,68 11,35 10,57 4,93 5,69 1,26 1,54
Housing 4,08 3,47 3,35 6,22 7,36 3,34 1,9 5,14 1,63
Transportation 2,69 1,92 2,2 15,36 12,14 -1,53 -0,72 4,23 1,03
General 6,96 3,79 4,3 8,38 8,36 3,35 3,02 3,61 1,94
Prepared Food 6,96 4,51 6,11 7,45 8,11 6,42 5,38 4,1 3,2
Clothing 6,51 7,57 4,67 0,52 3,08 3,43 3,05 3,92 2,71
Medical Care 2,19 4,26 2,91 3,7 5,71 5,32 3,92 2,99 2,5
Education 3,29 5,16 4,21 3,91 4,44 3,97 2,73 3,33 2,91
Source: Ministry of Trade, 2018
Unemployment Rate
11,00
In the last 10 years, open unemployment rate
10,00 10,45 tends to decrease, but there is an increasing
10,28
movement every August in the last 5 years.
9,75
9,00
9,11

8,00 8,46 8,39

8,14 7,48
7,87
7,00 7,41
7,14
6,96 6,17
6,18
5,94
6,00 6,37 5,61
6,13 5,5
5,88 5,81
5,70
5,50
5,00 5,33 5,34
5,13

Open Unemployment Rate

on Ags 2018: 5,34% There are about 5-6 unemployment
out of 100 workforce

Source: Central Bureau of Statistic, 2019

Poverty in Indonesia
(number and percentage, 1999-Sep 2018)

Number of poor (million) Percentage

Source: Central Bureau of Statistic, 2019

Trade Balance-2018
Trade Balance, December 2018 Trade Balance 2018

Export and Import, 2017-2018 (in Mill. US$)

Desc
Export Import Net Export Import Net

Source: Central Bureau of Statistic, 2019

Presure on Rupiah has Declined
 Bilateral Swap
Bilateral Swap: one way solution to minimize the fluctuation of foreign
exchange
• Indonesia has signed an bilateral swap agreement (BSA) or agreement to
exchange foreign exchange reserves with three countries, that is South
Korea, Japan, and China for US$37B to anticipate foreign exchange
reserves entrenchment.
• Bilateral swap agreement (BSA) consists of agreement with South Korea
for US$10B, with China for US$15B and with Japan for US$12B.

Source: Bank Indonesia, 2018

Local Currency Settlement Framework
Local Currency Settlement Framework
 President Joko Widodo and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong have
agreed that Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
would have a currency swap agreement on October 2018. Under the cooperation,
BI could hold local currency swap to dollar with MAS with the total of $10 billion.
• On Friday, November 16, 2018, the Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), Perry Warjiyo and the Governor of the
People’s Bank of China (PBC), Yi Gang have signed the extension and the enlargement of the Bilateral Currency
Swap Arrangement (BCSA). BI and PBC had agreed to increase the size of BCSA from CNY100 billion
(equivalent to USD15 billion) to CNY200 billion (equivalent to USD30 billion). The agreement is valid for three
years.
Source: Bank Indonesia, 2018
Increase the Interest Rate Aggressively on 2018-
Financial Instrument Become More Attractive
 Interest Rate in Central Bank
Indonesia
6,00%
China 4,35%

Vietnam 4,25%

Malaysia 3,25%

Phillipines 4,75%

Thailand 1,75%

Australia 1,50%

US 2,25%
Benchmark Interest Rate
South Korea 1,75% in Central Bank
UK 0,75%

Japan -0,10%

Source: centralbanksrate, 2019

 Government Bond 10Y Yield of Asian Countries (%)
Taiwan 0,890

South Korea 2,244

Singapore 2,512

Thailand 2,800

US 3,076

China 3,552

Malaysia 4,172

Vietnam 5,158

Philippines 7,642

India 7,877

Indonesia 8,667

Pakistan 11,999

Source: investing.com (2018)

Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserve
Bank Indonesia pulished foreign exchange reserve at Dec 2018, in
US$ billion

6.7 month of import

6.5 month of import and foreign debt payment capacity
Source: CNBC Indonesia, 2019
Comparison of Reserve, Jun 2018
3205,6

1258,5

804,3

456,7 406
379,5
288,1
119,8 206,8 155,5
104,7 77,5 125,1

Brazil Rusia India Tiongkok Indonesia Malaysia Singapura Thailand Filipina Jepang Euro Area Inggris Amerika
Serikat

Jun-17 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

In US$ billions
*Data update per Jun 2018, Source: IMF, Bappenas 2018
Banking Sector Asset Growth

Contribution and growth comparison (by Total Asset)

Growth Contribution to Total
Asset, Jul 2018
Public Listed Bank
For. Exch. BUSN
Non-for. Exch. BUSN
Regional Bank
Mixed Bank
Foreign Bank

Total Asset, Rp Tril. Asset Growth, % yoy-RHS

Credit and Third Party Fund Growth
Credit Growth Third Party Fund Growth

Composition of Third Party

Fund, based on currency,
Jul 2018
Foreign
Currency
11%
Composition of Credit Contribution and growth comparison (to Total Third Party Fund)
distribution to Third Parties,
based on currency, Contribution to Total
Growth
Jul 2018 Third Party Fund,
Foreign Contribution and growth comparison (to Total Credit) Rupiah Jul 2018
Currency Contribution to 89%
Growth
15% Total Lending, Current Account
Jul 2018 Saving Account
Working Capital
Rupiah Time Deposit
85% Investment

Consumption

Third Party Fund, Rp Tril. Third Party Fund Growth, % yoy-RHS

Total Credit, Rp Tril. Credit Growth, % yoy-RHS
Bank Soundness Indicators
Indonesia Market Indices, IHSG
Trillion Billion

Foreign-net
Average Daily Trade Value of Stock

Foreign Net Flow IHSG Growth and Average Trade Value

Source: Bank Indonesia, 2019

Foreign and Domestic Investment in Indonesia (Q4 2018)

Source: BKPM, 2019

Investment Realization Based on Country of Origin-2018

Source: BKPM, 2019

Investment Realization Based on Country of Origin-2018

Source: BKPM, 2018

Investment Realization Based on Sector -2018
Investment Realization Based on Sector-2018

Source:
BKPM, 2019
Investment Realization Based on Region-2018

Source: BKPM, 2018

Trade Balance-2018
Trade Balance, December 2018 Trade Balance 2018

Export and Import, 2017-2018 (in Mill. US$)

Desc
Export Import Net Export Import Net

Source: BPS, 2019

 Government Debt
Developed country with highest debt to GDP
ratio are Japan (238%), US (105,2%), UK
(87,5%) and China (47%).

In ASEAN:
Singapore 111%
Laos 67%
Vietnam 59%
Malaysia 54%
Thailand 42%
Filiphina 40%
Myanmar 34%
Kamboja 30%
Indonesia 29%
Brunei Darussalam 3%

Country with lowest ratio is Macao (0,00%)

IMF, Oct 2018
Debt to GDP G-20 Countries
Countries Debt to GDP (%) Countries Debt to GDP (%)
Japan 238 Germany 68.3
Italy 132.6 Netherland 62.3
US 105 Mexico 47.9
Spain 99.4 China 46.2
Franc 96 Australia 41.1
Canada 92.3 South Korea 38.6
UK 89.3 Switzerland 32.6
European Area 89.2 Turky 28.3
India 69.5 Indonesia 29
Brazil 69.49 Russia 17
Source: Ministry of Finance, 2019
Government Debt
The newborn baby in Singapore will responsible
for Rp785 million debt, meanwhile in Japan, they
will responsible for Rp1,2 billion.
Government Debt

Debt Ratio to GDP (%) Deficit Ratio to GDP (%)

Government Debt SBN holder composition based on
tenure (%from total)
Government Debt, 2013-Sept 2018

Debt Profile Is
Dominate by
Rupiah SBN
SBN Rupiah
SBN Foreign Exchange
Debt
ORI and SBN Rate
Coupon rate Value Investor
ORI Year New Investor
(%) (Rp trilion)

001 2006 12,05 3,28 16.561 16.561

002 2007 9,28 6,233 13.158 10.327

003 2007 9,4 9,367 22.837 16.692

004 2008 9,5 13,455 37.724 26.089

005 2008 11,45 2,71 14.001 10.983

006 2009 9,35 8,54 24.433 14.601

007 2010 7,95 8 17.705 10.959

008 2011 7,3 11 15.372 10.410

009 2012 6,25 12,68 25.293 16.107

010 2013 8,5 20,2 38.860 26.824

011 2014 8,5 21,215 35.024 20.418

012 2015 9,0 27,44 49.521 28.520

013 2016 6,6 19,7 34.331 17.323

014 2017 5,85 8,95 22.882 11.182

015 2018 8,25 19* - -

Source: Ministry of Finance,2018

State Budget (APBN) and Realization, 2018
REVENUE SPENDING

REALIZATION REALIZATION
CENTRAL GOV.
TAX REVENUE SPENDING

Realization Growth Realization Growth

DEFICIT TO GDP

Realization Growth Realization Growth

GRANT PRIMARY BALANCE DEBT FINANCING

Realization Growth Realization Growth

Source:Minisry of Finnace, 2019
 ASEAN GDP (%)
Brunei
Singapore Darussalam In US$ Billion
12% 0%
Indonesia 1.015,54

Thailand 455,22
Indonesia
37% Singapore 323,91

Thailand Malaysia 314,50

16%

Philippines 313,60

Vietnam 223,86

Myanmar 69,32

Cambodia 22,16
Malaysia
11%
Myanmar Laos 16,85
3%
Cambodia Brunei Darussalam 12,13
Philippines Laos 1%
11% Vietnam 1%
8%

Source: World Bank, 2018

ASEAN Population

8.59% of the total world population, 49.8 % of the population is urban. The median age in South-Eastern Asia is 28.8 years.
Source: World Bank, 2018
 ASEAN GDP per Capita (US$)
Singapore 57.714

Brunei Darussalam 28.291

Malaysia 9.945

Thailand 6.594

Indonesia 3.847

Philippines 2.989

Laos 2.457

Vietnam 2.343

Cambodia 1.384

Myanmar 1.299

Source: World Bank, 2018

Indonesia and One Trillion Dollar Club
There are several members of the club that have
GDP > USD 1 trillion, including Indonesia in 2017

United States
GDP $19,36 T China
(1970) GDP $11,94 T
(1998) Japan
GDP $4,88 T Germany
(1979) GDP $3,65 T
(1990) France
GDP $2,57 T
(1988) United
Kingdom
GDP $2,56 T
Canada (1990) India
GDP $1,64 T South Korea GDP $2,4 T
(2005) GDP $1,53 T (2007)
(2007)
Indonesia
GDP $1,01 T (2017)
 Transmission of Global Economic to National Economic
EUROPE
• Instability potential due to UK Referendum to exit from European
Union
• Economic condition generally weak, especially Greece
• Negative Interest Rate Policy: Germany, Denmark, Swiss

UNITED STATES JAPAN

• Negative Interest Rate
• Monetary policy (The FED Normalization),
• Economic condition shows improvements CHINA
• Probability to face the next recession TURKEY • Uncertainty of monetary policy & financial sector
• Currency crisis (Devaluation & Intervention)
• Economic performance weakening

ARGENTINA
• Currency crisis
Is Winter, Or Even Snow Storm Really
Coming?
Global Economic Concern
Weakening Global Expansion

Source: IMF (2018)

 Global Economy : Growths in Asia (YOY,%)
COUNTRY 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
ASEAN
Indonesia 6.2 6.17 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.17 5.3
Myanmar 9.6 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.0 7.0 5.9 6.4 6.8 7.2
Cambodia 6.0 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.0 7.0
Laos 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.0
Vietnam 6.4 6.2 5.2 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 6.8
Philippines 7.6 3.7 6.7 7.1 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.9
Malaysia 7.4 5.3 5.5 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.3 5.0
Thailand 7.5 0.8 7.2 2.7 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.1
Singapore 15.2 6.4 4.1 5.1 3.9 2.2 2.4 3.6 3.1 2.9

Brunei Darussalam 2.6 3.7 0.9 -2.1 -2.3 -0.6 -2.5 1.3 1.5 2.0

Non Asean
India 10.3 6.6 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.2 7.1 6.6 7.3 7.6
China 10.6 9.5 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.4
South Korea 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.9
Hong Kong 6.8 4.8 1.7 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.2 3.8 3.2 3.0
Taiwan 10.6 3.8 2.1 2.2 3.9 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.9 2.8
Japan 4.2 -0.1 1.5 2.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 1.7 0.9
Source: World Bank, ADB (2018) *2018 and 2019 ADB estimates
Indonesia Projection 2019
Consumption 5,1% Agriculture3,8%
Manufacture 5,1%
Gov. Consumption 5,4%
Transportation 8,8%
Investment 7,0% GDP
ICT 10,4%
Export 6,3% Projection
2019 Financial services and Insurane
Import 7,1%
7,9%

Infrastructure development High consumption rate with

encourage investment inflation control
Gov. Consumption

Source: Ministry of Finance, 2019

State Budget 2019: Posture

REVENUE SPENDING

TAX Ctr. Gov.

PNPB TKDD
GRANT Village Fund

Healthy Fair Independent

• Deficit 1,84% GDP • Better financial balance (increasing TKDD) • Increasing taxratio
• Positive Primary Balance (Rp20,1 T) • Strenghtening social protection program • Domestic financial deepening
• Debt ratio 30% GDP • Focuss on H quality: education, health • Decreasing debt growth
• Financial accessibility for microbusiness • Encourage export growth

Source: Ministry of Finance, 2019

Economic Growth and Welfare
Gini Ratio Poverty Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)

Gini Ratio Target 2019 Poverty Rate Target 2019 Unemployment Rate Target 2019

Challenges: Challenges:
- Accessibility of healthcare, food, Target:
- Capital Inequality
and education for poor - Economic Growth Employment
- Geographical Condition
- Climate change food price Structure
- Expertise and skill need
- Industrial Revolution 4,0 Industry
5,0

Source: Ministry of Finance, 2019

 Government Spending Focus 2019
To support human resources development, increase competitiveness, exports and investment, and strenghten value of money.

Natural disaster risk

Education: Road Development: Democration: Election Bureaucracy: mitigation, environtment,
PKH: 10 million
• 20,1 million KIP 1.834,7 km 2019 Improvement of public economy and security
family
• 471,8 thousand Election security 2019 services quality
Bidik Misi Welfare of public service
• Vocational officer
Irrigation Development:
• Facility Non-cash food subsidy:
170,4 thousand Ha Pooling Fund for natural
Development 15,6 million family
disaster Rp1 Trillion
Defense: Source:
Electrification: 99,9% Stage 2 MEF and APBN
development of defense PHLN
Interest subsidy: industry Regional Contribution
Flats: 9.003 unit
microbusiness and Other source
household
Health: Security:
Health protection Dam: 48 unit
• Security of terorism and
96,8 million people social politic issue
(PBI JKN)
Railway development

Source: Ministry of Finance , 2019

Regional Transfer and Village Fund
To increase the quality and decrease the disparity of inter regional public service

Regional transfer and Village

fund growth, 2014-2019

Balance Fund
Regional Transfer
Village Fund
Growth (%)

General Fund
Transfer Special Fund Transfer
Regional
Incentive
10

Special
region &
DIY 22,2

Village Fund
70,0

Realization
2018

Source: Ministry of Finance , 2019

Investment 2019
Investment in 2019: education, infrasructure, poverty, export and competitivness

Investment Financing

Source:, Ministry of Finance 2019

Priority Sector
1. LOGISTIC

Wide Coverage Area

Rapid Growth of E-Commerce

Logistic Performance Index
• Ranked 46th out of 160 countries
• Rose 17 levels within two years
• Highest score: timeliness indicator (3.67
points/41st position)
• Lowest score: custom indicator (2.67
points/62nd position)
• Long-term vision: Make Indonesia a Logistics
Hub in Asia Pacific
• In order to achieve the vision, Indonesia has
to be better than Japan (5th), Singapore (7th),
Hong Kong (12th), Australia (18th), Korea
(25th), China (26th), Taiwan (27th), Thailand
(32nd), Vietnam (37th), Malaysia (41st), India
(44th)
• STILL NEED TO DEVELOP
INFRASTRUCTURE
2. TOURISM
Foreign exchange income from tourism sector (2009-2019E)

Source: Ministry of Tourism, 2018

Tourism Development
To increase our tourism competitiveness, government focus to develop the infrastructure and
accesibility from west to east.

Source: Ministry of Tourism, 2019

Number of Visitors, Q1 2016-Q3 2018 (yoy,%)
Number of Visitors, 2016-2018 (thousand)

Number of Foreign Visitors, Q1 2016-Q3 2018 (yoy,%) Tourist from area of origin 2017 and 2018
(thousand)

Source: Ministry of Tourism , 2019

November 2018 Tourism Statistics
Number of visitor 2014-2018

Room occupancy level

Average day visit of foreign

tourist in star hotel

Big 5 tourist from country of origin

Number of visits (million) Number of foreign tourist visit (thousand), by

transportation method

Source: BPS, 2018

Economic Impact of IMF-WB Meeting 2018
The Impact of Visitor length of stay estimation
Average length of stay estimation: 9 days

2 days 1 day after

before event event

in Bali Days

Economic Impact of the Event

Countries

Direct Impact Non-direct Impact

Participant
Goverment investment to Because of economic
support infrastructure multiplier effect
development
Job creation
Organizing Event Process
IMF-WB AM at 2017 and
Economic growth
Delegation Non-Delegation 2018
Visitor spending Increase regional
Foreign Foreign (delegation and non- income
delegation)
Dometic Dometic
Economic Impact of Asian Games 2018
Tourist
visits
estimated
Thousand INDONESIA’S MEDALS
people
IN
Atlet and Thousand
Off. team people

Spectators Pertamina stop the

premium fuel
Thousand distribution to 8 cities
people to fix the air quality

Spectators Spending

Media Spending
Decrease the Working hour

Atlet Spending

Volunteer Spending
volume of private reschedule in
vehicles Jakarta

Budget Estimation for

Preparation
spectators and atlet

Support
infrastructure
development
Budget Prepared
trillion for Event (Rp) gold
Gelora Bung Karno, silver
bronze
Jakabaring Stadium, Spending Spending in
Atlet Dorm, Light Rail on in Jakarta Palembang
Transit repairement)
Tax
Operational Expenses trillion trillion trillion
Estimated
trillion Increase foreign exchange
trillion income in tourism sector
trillion
Tourism Stimulates Creative Industry

Culinary Souvenirs

Fashion
Choose your market segment
3. Manufacturing Industry
RARE EARTH MINERALS
Hybrid/Elect
(Bangka Belitung, Kalimantan,
ric Cars
Sulawesi, Papua)

High Speed
Rails

Wind
Turbines

Hard Disk
Manufacturing Industry Potential

Dairy Products Sea Products

Fruits and Vegetables Rubbers

4. Agriculture
COMMODITY PRIORITIES 2017
The government push the production of food commodity and food plantation.
The priorities are rice, corn, chili, chocolate and palm oil.

FOOD

Rubber Agriculture

Commodity Million Ton

Growth target of agriculture Workforce target: Farmer Exchange Value: Desirable Dietary Pattern:
sector:

Million People
Food and Energy Security
END