POPULATION PARAMETER Situation 1: Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean • A teacher wants to know if online learning has increased the mean GPA of students in DLSU. • The population of study of the teacher is the set of all DLSU students. • The population mean GPA of all the DLSU students is known to be 𝜇 = 80. • The teacher’s hypothesis is that population mean 𝜇 > 80 when online learning is a factor. Situation 1: Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean • To determine if this is true or not, a random sample of 𝑛 = 200 students were selected and it was found out that 𝑥 = 83 is the sample mean GPA of the 200 students. • The teacher will use this sample mean to determine if it is true that the population mean 𝜇 > 80. Situation 2: Hypothesis Test for One Population Proportion • A political analyst claims that a presidential candidate will get at most 45% of the votes in the upcoming elections. • Therefore, the hypothesis of the political analyst is that the population proportion 𝑝 ≤ 0.45. Situation 2: Hypothesis Test for One Population Proportion • To prove this claim, the political analyst surveyed a sample of 𝑛 = 50 voters and asked these voters if they will vote for the presidential candidate or not. • The survey result showed that 21 voters will vote the presidential candidate. 21 • In this case, the sample proportion 𝑝 = = 50 0.42 or 42%. Hypothesis Testing
• A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or
conjecture concerning one or more populations. • A test of hypothesis is the method to determine whether the statistical hypothesis is true or not. Hypothesis Testing It depends on several factors: • Null and Alternative Hypothesis • Type of Test • Level of Significance • Test Statistic • Critical Value and Critical Region (Decision Rule) Null Hypothesis
• The null hypothesis is the hypothesis that the
researcher wishes to reject or not to reject. • This hypothesis includes equality (equal sign) always and it is denoted by 𝐻0 . Alternative Hypothesis • The alternative hypothesis is the hypothesis that is accepted if the null hypothesis is rejected. • It is denoted by 𝐻1 or 𝐻𝑎 . • This hypothesis may include one of the following quantifiers: the less than (<), the greater than (>) or the not equal to (≠). Type of Test • The type of test depends on 𝐻𝑎 or 𝐻1 . • If the quantifier is less than (<), then the type of test is one-tailed. Specifically, left-tailed test or lower-tailed test. • If the quantifier is greater than (>), then the type of test is also one-tailed but specifically, a right-tailed test or upper-tailed test. • If the quantifier is not equal to (≠), then the type of test is two-tailed. Example 12.1: Null and Alternative Hypothesis Write the null and alternative hypotheses of the following and identify the type of test to be used: 1. At most 65% of public school children are malnourished. 2. The mean height of sports car drivers is at least 159 cm. 3. Not more than 20% of the faculty at the local university contributed to the annual giving fund. Example 12.1: Null and Alternative Hypothesis 4. Fifty-five percent of elected public officials came from the same university. 5. The mean calorie content of a certain chocolate bar is more than 30. Level of Significance • The level of significance is denoted by 𝛼. • Usually, it is given in hypothesis testing problems. • In a research study, the usual values of 𝛼 are either 0.05 or 0.01. • If not given in the problem, we shall use 𝛼 = 0.05. Level of Significance • The level of significance 𝛼 is interpreted as the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis whenever it is TRUE. • When you reject a TRUE null hypothesis, it is called a Type I error. • Thus, 𝛼 = 𝑃 𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻0 |𝐻0 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒) Level of Significance • A Type II error is an error of accepting a null hypothesis that is false. • Thus, 𝑃 𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = 𝑃(𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 𝐻0 |𝐻0 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑒) Example 12.2: Type I and II In the given situation, formulate the null and alternative hypotheses. Identify situations when Type I and Type II errors are committed and state their possible consequences. SITUATION 1: In the Philippine judicial system, a defendant is presumed innocent until proven guilty. Example 12.2: Type I and II SITUATION 2: A jar of peanut butter is labeled as containing 32 ounces (oz.) A consumer group feels that the manufacturer of the peanut butter is shortchanging its customers by underfilling the jars. Test Statistic • The test statistic (z or t) is simply a formula depending on the type of hypothesis testing. • As we discuss each type of hypothesis testing, the formulas will be shown. • This test statistic will be compared to the critical value which can be read from 𝑧 or 𝑡 tables. • The rule for comparison is the critical region or decision rule. Critical Value and Critical Region A. For left-tail tests, 𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼 for z-test 𝑡 < −𝑡𝛼 for t-test B. For right-tail tests, 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼 for z-test 𝑡 > 𝑡𝛼 for t-test C. For two-tail tests, 𝑧 < −𝑧𝛼/2 or 𝑧 > 𝑧𝛼/2 for z-test 𝑡 < −𝑡𝛼/2 or 𝑡 > 𝑡𝛼/2 for t-test Critical Value and Critical Region If the inequality in the critical region is TRUE, then we reject the null hypothesis 𝐻0 . Otherwise, we do not reject 𝐻0 . Steps in Hypothesis Testing • Step 1: Identify null and alternative hypotheses and type of test. • Step 2: Identify the level of significance. Determine the critical region and critical value. • Step 3: Compute the appropriate test statistic. • Step 4: State the decision. • Step 5: Write the appropriate conclusion. Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean Case 1: 𝜎 is known The formula for the test statistic is 𝑥 − 𝜇0 𝑧= 𝜎 𝑛 Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean Case 2A: 𝜎 is unknown, 𝑛 ≥ 30 The formula for the test statistic is 𝑥 − 𝜇0 𝑧= 𝑠 𝑛 Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean Case 2A: 𝜎 is unknown, 𝑛 < 30 The formula for the test statistic is 𝑥 − 𝜇0 𝑡= 𝑠 𝑛 Example 12.3: Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean A random sample of 100 recorded deaths in the United States during the past year showed an average life span of 71.8 years, with a standard deviation of 8.9 years. Does this seem to indicate that the average life span today is greater than 70 years? Use a 0.05 level of significance. Example 12.4: Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean The average height of females in the freshman class of a certain college has been 162.5 centimeters with a standard deviation of 6.9 centimeters. Is there a reason to believe that there has been a change in the average height if a random sample of 50 females in the present freshman class has an average height of 165.2 centimeters? Use a 0.02 level of significance. Example 12.5: Hypothesis Test for One Population Mean A random sample of 8 cigarettes of a certain brand has an average nicotine content of 4.2 milligrams and a standard deviation of 1.4 milligrams. Is this in line with the manufacturer’s claim that the average nicotine content does not exceed 3.5 milligrams? Use a 0.01 level of significance Hypothesis Test for One Population Proportion The formula for the test statistic is given by 𝑝 − 𝑝0 𝑧= 𝑝0 𝑞0 𝑛 Example 12.6: Hypothesis Test for One Population Proportion A chocolate manufacturer targets at least an 8 out of 10 public approval of their new chocolate recipe to release in the market. A random sample of 80 people where given a taste test and resulted a 75% approval of the product. Will the company release the product in the market with a 0.05 level of significance? Example 12.7: Hypothesis Test for One Population Proportion A commonly prescribed drug on the market for relieving nervous tension is believed to be only 60% effective. Experimental results with a new drug administered to a random sample of 100 adults who were suffering from nervous tension showed that 70 received relief. Is this sufficient evidence to conclude that the new drug is superior to the one commonly prescribed? Use a 0.05 level of significance.