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Floods are natural and recurrent events. Over the For example:
years, repeated floods build the floodplain of a river.
The function of a floodplain is to provide a pathway Average 10 years of records + 1 11
for excess water—water that won't fit within the stream recurrence =
5thflood
highest 5
channel Unfortunately, human societies all too often = = 2.2 (one this discharge
size
every 2.2 years)
ignore this floodplain function and colonize the interval
floodplain for its economic advantages: level ground
for construction, fertile soils for crops, ease of
access, and ready supply of water. Too often, Table 7.2 shows the recurrence interval of floods on the
floodinc, is viewed like an earthquake it always Danger River based on ten years of data.
happens to someone else, somewhere else. A graph can be constructed showing how
Living on a floodplain is a gamble like playing dire in frequently any level of discharge is likely to occur. For
Las Vegas. The same rules of chance apply: the stakes this example, we used data from Table 7.2 in the
are high, but the long-run odds are against winning. equation above to generate the curve in Figure
The stakes are high because you win only if your flood 7.30. There are only ten years of records. The highest
losses are less than the value gained from living in data point is at a recurrence interval of 11 years
the flood plain. The long-run odds are poor (number of years of records + 1). Note that the
estimate of discharge at 11 years is difficult to
because floods are bound to occur. The biggest
determine because the data point (1700 cubic feet
losses in built-up areas come from catastrophic per second) is an extreme value, much higher than
floods like the 1993 Iowa disaster or the 1976 Big and, therefore, far from the other data points on
Thompson Canyon flood. Floods of this magnitude are the graph.
rare, but even a small chance for such an As noted earlier, stream banks are hi gh enough to
occurrence is a matter of concern. The more severe a hold in the stream channel the highest discharge
that occurs within a 28-month period, or 2.33 twenty-five years (column 3), and a 99.9 percent
years. In our Danger River example, this is a chance of occurring within fifty years. A 100-year
discharge of 520 cubic feet per second. The
projected fifty-year flood dis charge of 2500 flood has a 63 percent chance of happening within a
cubic feet per second is 4.8 times the river's normal 100-year period, but only a 1 percent chance in a
"full" discharge. particular year.
Det ermi ni n g t he highest discharge to A good analogy is a roulette wheel. The
expect every 50 or 100 years is much more number of black and red numbers is very close to
problematic. It depends very heavily on the highest equal so that ten spins of the wheel should result i n
discharge recorded during the ten-year period. For five black numbers and five red numbers.
example, if the highest discharge recorded was 20 Nevertheless, there will be numerous ten-spin
percent higher than the 1700 cubic feet per second in sequences in which the result will be six black and
our example, the projected discharge of the fifty- four red, or seven red and three black. Occasionally,
year flood would be 3800 cubic feet per second. the result may be nine and one, or rarely, ten and
This dramatic change might mean the dif ference zero. Flood probability estimates are similar. In fifty
between minor property damage with small loss spins of the calendar, there should occur only one
of life and a major economic and personal disaster fifty-year flood, but it is possible for two or three
for a community. of them to occur in a single year. Worse yet, which
Note that all values other than the year it will be cannot be determined in advance.
measured ten data points are expectations. Based on
the ten datapoints, we expect a discharge of 3500
cubic feet per second every 100 years—but, it Urbanization and Flooding
is quite possible that the highest discharge
The relationship among rainfall, stream
between 1994 and 2094 will be only 3000 cubic discharge, and time is of great significance
feet per second; or perhaps it will actually be 4000 when we think about floods. Time is more
cubic feet per second. The small number of important than many people realize. For example,
data points on which our extrapolat i on is based during a rainfall, one very important factor that
ensures that there is a large degree of uncertainty slow-, the rush of shcetflow runoff into a stream
in our expectation. channel is vegetation. First, the plant leaves shield
In natural situations, we are always dealing in the soil from the full impact of raindrops, so that the
probabilities, not certainties. We use real data water is more likely to infiltrate than to erode
to make our estimates of future stream thesoil. Second, plant roots and soil pores can hold a
behavior, but must not forget that our large amount of water—at least temporarily—
estimates are only that stimates. The larger and thus reduce the maximum stream discharge.
our data set of past stream behavior, the better This creates a lag between the time of rainfall
we will be our estimate of future stream behavior. and the time of peak discharge. Put simply: if
Flood hazard (or discharge hazard) the Ap p alachian Mountains suddenly were stripped
estimates sometimes are expressed as flood of all plants, residents would experience catastrophic
probabilities rather than as recurrence flash floods.
intervals. One value is the reciprocal of the Thus, it is no surprise that urbanization—
other. (A reciprocal is 1 divided by the paving over land, building construction, stripping
number; for example, 1 /too is the reciprocal of vegetation and soil—both increases the highest
100.) A 100-year flood, for example, has a 1 /too discharge that 1ccal streams attain and decreases the
(or 1%) chance of occurring in any given year. A lag time between the rainfall event and flooding
50-year flood has a 1/5o (or 2%) chance. The (Figure 7.31). This increase clearly shows on a
possibilit y of two 50-year floods occurring in hydrograph, a plot of stream discharge over time.
one year is small, only 1/50 X 1/50 = 1/2500, or 1 Two hydrographs appear in Figure 7.32.
chance in 2500 (or 0.04%). But it can happen: in The upper curve shows streamflow under pre-
Houston, three 100-year floods occurred in a urban conditions, where plenty of vegetation and
single year, 1979. The chance of that happening is few impermeable surfaces exist. The lower curve
one in one million! The real world is never risk-free. shows the greater stream discharge and briefer lag
Table 7.3 summarizes flood probabilities. For time between rainfall and peak discharge that result
example, a flood with a ten-year return period from urbanization.
(column 6) has a ten percent chance of occurring in Smaller floods are more affected by
any one yearcolumn 5), a 65 percent chance within urbanization tl•,an are larger, less frequent floods. A
ten years (column 4), a 94 percent chance within 50-year or 100- vear flood is hardly affected at all by
an increase in the amount of impermeable area Should communities pass laws restricting the
caused by urbanization, because such extreme use of private property? Would it be satisfactory
floods overwhelm the storage capacity of soil cover, simply to inform prospective builders or buyers
no matter how extensive. of the danger, and allow them to do as they
wish? Should the government subsidize the
increased cost of insurance for those who build in
Anticipating and Controlling Floods dangerous areas if the town favors the development
Advance planning for floods or other and no other location is suitable?
calamities can save both lives and property. But
planning costs money, and the more comprehensive
Flood Control
the plan, the higher the cost. How much are people
who live on a river's flood-plain willing to pay, and Several methods are used to control
for what degree of protection? Most communities floods, none of which is without drawbacks. They
that engage in flood protection planning use as a include channelization, levees, and dams.
guide the 100 -clear floodway. This is the area along Channelization of Streams.
the river (floodplain and the zone surroundin g it) Channelization is the name for various methods
that is likely to be flooded once each 100 years. of improving the stream's channel to increase
As you have seen, the 100-year discharge can be stream discharge. The purpose is to help the stream
estimated. By using topograph i c maps (maps that carry away water faster from a threatened area.
use contour lines to show the shape and elevation Channelization may increase discharge by
of the land surface) it is easy to see the outline of the dredging to straighten, widen, or deepen the
area that would be under water during an channel. Within cities, stream channels often are lined
average 100-year flood. However, because of with cement to straighten them and keep hem
increasing urbanization, both the 100-year stream from meandering, as streams commonly do
discharge and the contours of the land surface (Figure 7.34). Unfortunately, such major
around a stream may change over time, so the 100- modifications in a natural stream course not only
year floodway may change as well. are unsightly but have ripple effects both upstream
Figure 7.33 shows the San Lorenzo River flowing and downstream. Increasing the streamgradient at one
through the town of Felton, California, south of location causes it to increase upstream as well, which
San Francisco. It shows the flood-prone zone accelerates erosion. Down-stream, the incidence of
along the river. At normal streamflow, the water flooding is greatly increased because of the
surface is at an elevation of 240±5 feet, but increased volume of water funneled there more
floodplain zoning now prevents most hastilyby the increase in stream velocity upstream. In
construction below an elevation of 260-265 addition, any change in the natural characteristics
feet. Unfortunately, a large number of homes and of a stream affects the ecosystem of which it is an
other structures already exist on the east side of the integral part, usually negatively.
river (center of map; note elevations). This is within the Building Levees along Streams. A second
designated danger zone. Felton's citizens probably are method of flood control is to build artificial levees
unhappy about decreased property values and (also known as dikes), which are raised banks that
higher home insurance premiums that have run along the top edge of the stream channel on each
resulted from the zoning ordinances. side. Streams build natural levees (Figure 7.35A) when
they overflow their banks, because the water slows
and sediment is deposited. Natural levees usually are
Floodplain Zoning low, capable of containing only the greatest
For the reasons just described, floodplain zoning has not discharge that occurs during an average 28-month
received an enthusiastic response from local period. They afford no protec tion against major
governments. Lack of scientific personnel, lack of floods. By constructing higher levees along the
money, local political pressure against unpopular channel margins, the channel can hold more
restrictions on development, and the higher cost of water, reducin g the occurrence of floods (Figure
floodproofing or of elevating structures on stilts 7.35B).
combine to make difficult the passage of zoning Artificial levee construction has been advocated by the
ordinances. Real estate developers, in particular, federal government for more than a century, but they
almost always are opposed to restricting the use now are reassessing the practice. Over the years, the
(residential, commercial, industrial) to which they U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has built numerous
may put their property. levees along the Mississippi that now total more
than 2500 miles in length. Some of these levees are 30 Among the worst problems are catastrophic
feet highThese levees have contained numerous dam failures. During the last few decades, several
floods. But the great flood of 1993 breached (broke hundred thousand people worldwide have beer, killed
through) some 8001evees, creating serious flooding on by dam failures. These resulted either from inadequate
land that long had been protected by them. Further, geologic investigation or poor engineering during
fending off a flood upstream simply creates more severe construction. Recall the infamous Vaiont Dam
flooding downstream. disaster in Italy, discussed in Chapter 5.)
Calculations indicate that, had the A 1992 national dam survey classified
agricultural levees along the Mississippi been made almost one-third of this country's 75,000 dams as
high enough to contain the 1993 floodwaters, the hazardous, 10,000 as having high hazard
river would have risen about 6 feet higher at St. potential, and another 13,500 as having significant
Louis, putting much of that city under water. Also, hazard potential.
the projected cost of elevating ihe levees would be Another problem associated with dams is
several billion dollars. So, although the 1993 inundation of large amounts of property by the lake that
floods in the midcontinent were a disaster for forms behind the dam. This drives out
towns and farms along the Mississippi River, the homeowners and wildlife, displaces farms, kills
Corps of Engineers does not expect to build levees vegetation, and alters ecosystems. The dams also
high enough to prevent similar floods. Instead, create mud deposits in the reservoir, because the
they are recommending government buyouts of entering stream stops and hence drops its sediment
property in flood-prone areas and improved load. In 1941, a USGS study reported that 39 percent
flood insurance for buildings and crops. of existing reservoirs would be largely filled with
Building Dams across Rivers. Another widely sediment before-2000. (Figure 7.38 shows an example
used flood-control method is a dam; 75,000 exist in the from France.) More recent data suggest that only
United States. Hundreds of thousands more exist 54 percent of American reservoirs will function for
throughout the world. If all the water stored in more than a century, and 21 percent will be in use
dams were released to the ocean, sea level would less than fifty years. About one-third of the sediment in
rise about 3 inches. These huge concrete or earthen the re se rv oi rs m a y co m e fr om er od ed cr op l a nd
structures span a river and impound water that (s ee Chapter 3).
continually pours in from upstream (Figure 7.36). Just how much sediment accumulates annually
Some rivers need only a single dam, whereas in an "average" reservoir? Could we dredge the
along others, two or three may be necessary to manage sediment from the reservoir and transport it to a
the water volume. The Mississippi has twenty-eight useful place, like a construction site? What would this
locks and dams, and forty-five major dams have cost?
been built along its tributaries. Sediment yield from southeastern U.S.
The pinnacle of dam construction in the drainage basins has been measured, in pounds per
United States was reached with the completion in square mile per year:
1976 of a 34-dam complex along the Tennessee
River and its tributaries (Figure 7.37). At the time · 110,000 from forested areas (low erosion rates)
they were built, the sole purpose of these dams was · 1,700,000 from rangeland
the generation of hydro electric power for an
· 850,000-60,000,000 from construction sites,
economica l ly depressed region. Since then,
where land is temporarily exposed in a highly
however, the lakes created by these dams and the
disturbed and erodible form.
water fesources they make available have led to
extensive reforestation, tourism, and development Let us assume a conservative amount of sediment
of mineral resources. The dams were constructed by the entering a reservoir: only 1 million pounds per
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). square mile per year. Dry mud weighs about 150
Dam Problems. Most dams built since the pounds per cubic foot. Hence, the 1 million pounds of
TVA project have been multipurpose. They sediment would occupy about 6700 cubic feet,
generate electric power, irrigate crops, and roughly the volume of a 30 x 30-foot bungalow.
provide recreational activities such as swimming, Each year, the reservoir would accumulate 6700
camping, fishing, and boating. Until about thirty cubic feet of mud from each square mile of
years ago, few questioned the good brought to an drainage basin. The cost of dredging the mud from a
area by a dam. Since then, problems have been reservoir is about 10 to 15 cents per cubic foot, so
recognized, resulting in near-total abandonment of the yearly cost of dredging would be at least $670
dam building. per square mile of drainage basin.
When this per-square mile cost is multiplied by
the 75,000 reservoirs in the nation, it appears encroaches on the fringes of the fertile corridor of the
that annual dredging cost would be $50 million per Nile valley during the dry season was stabilized by the
square mile of drainage basin. Drainage basins river-borne mud deposited during the annual
typically encompass many hundreds or thousands flood. Now that the flood has been eliminated,
of square miles. So, the total dredging cost for sand encroachment is much more difficult to
American reservoirs would be in the billions control because it overwhelms the irrigated lands at
annually! Further, our calculation does not include the western edge of the Nile River valley. Further,
the cost of transporting mud, which might equal the reduced Nile flow is now inadequate to wash away
cost of dredging, depending on distance. We the salts from the soil that are harmful to plant life.
conclude that the cost of removing the mud from Even worse, the floods that formerly deposited a
the nation's reservoirs is prohibitive. new layer of nutrient-rich mud have ended. Artificial
Below the dam, the water that is released after fertilizers now are needed, an expense not easily borne
passing through hydroelectric turbines in the dam is free in a poor country. And finally, the freshwater snails that
of sediment, all of which was trapped behind the carry parasitic Bilharzia larvae have become much more
dam. As the water plunges down into the stream in abundant in the Nile water used for irrigation,
front of the dam, it picks up new sediment, and the caus ing a dramatic increase in the incidence of this
increased erosion may extend for many miles debilitating and often fatal intestinal disease. The
downstream. The increased depth of the master stream Aswan Dam and reservoir have proven to be much less
that results from the increased erosion has effects on than the salvation event for the Egyptian people that was
its tributaries as well. They also increase their prophesied in the 1960s.
downcutting because the elevation at which they
join the master stream has been lowered.
Case Study: Egypt's Aswan Dam. Of even
greater importance in some areas downstream from
dam sites is the ecological damage and loss of nutrients Case Study: Valmeyer—A Town with
needed for agriculture. A good example of this effect G o o d Sense. Humans seen, slow to recognize
is the delta of the Nile River in Egypt. From before that we are an integral part of the natural world,
recorded history, flooding of the delta region at the not some special group apart from it. The natural
mouth of the Nile was an annual event, important environment, such as a river system, contains
because it replenished agricultural soils with fresh innninerable and often invisible interactions that
sediment and water. But in 1968, the Aswan Dam have deve l oped over billions of years to stabilize
across the Nile was completed. Its purpose was to Earth as a place fit for the life that inhabits it.
generate hydroelectric power and control flooding, and Despite our technological capabilities, we humans
both objectives were accomplished. are a numerically trivial group compared to ants,
Unfortunately, unforseen problems soon termites, bacteria, and so on. However, we have
became evident. After about thirty years, the larger, versatile brains. We are fully capable of
reservoir behind the dam still is not full, nor is it "thinking" our way to extinction, despite our
expected to rise higher. The reasons are simple: good intentions. It is not possible to improve on Father
evaporation into the hot, dry desert air and Nature.
infiltration of the reservoir water into the permeable One small group that has recognized the futility of
0
sandstone on which the dam was built. fighting catastrophes that happen repeatedly in
Evaporation is 50 percent greater than pre-construction the same place is the people of Valmeyer, Illinois.
calculations indicated. And the mud settling in Valmeyer is on the Mississippi River's east bank
the reservoir has not sealed the permeable about 25 miles south of St. Louis. The river's
sandstone, as had been expected. The reduced floodwaters inundated the town twice in the summer of
reservoir depth has reduced power generation 1993, and 900 citizens saw 90 percent of their homes,
considerably. offices, and public buildings destroyed (Figure 7.39). So
But downstream effects of the dam are even worse. they voted to construct a new Valmeyer about two
Because of the loss of sediment that used to be an annual miles east, away from and higher above the river.
deposit in the delta and an increasing number of The Illinois State Geological Survey was asked to
irrigation canals that trap sediment, the delta front investigate and evaluate natural hazards at the proposed
is being eroded by currents along the shoreline of new site of about 500 acres.
the Mediterranean Sea, reducing the land area At a town meeting in December 1993, Valmeyer's
available for agriculture. Parts of the delta coastline citizens voted to ask the federal government for
are receding at a rate of more than 300 feet per funds to defray the cost of the relocation and new
year. In addition, the drifting desert sand that
construction. Approval was granted in 1994 and 95
percent of Valmeyer's buildings and homes are being
rebuilt at the new site. Only 5 percent of the citizens
chose to remain at the old townsite. The federal
government is moving or rebuilding about 6600
structures damaged i n the floods. The estimated cost
of the move is $9.6 million, of which the federal
government (the nation's taxpayers) will pay $7.2
million. The remaining $2.4 million, divided among
900 residents, comes to less than $3000 per person. The
cost for a family of four is about $11,000.
As a condition of the grant, the town must adopt
drainage, sediment, and erosion controls; a storm-water
management plan; construction guidelines; and other
mitigation ordinances to protect against activating
the geologic hazards found by the scientists from the
Illinois State Geological Survey. The citizens of
Valmeyer believe it is in their best interest to
adapt to their surroundings rather than continue to
fight what is surely a losing battle.
Summary
Of every 100 water molecules on and near
Earth's surface, 97 are in the oceans. Most of the
remaining three lie frozen in glaciers. Although this
has been true for all of human history, it does not
mean that the water molecules do not change
location. They are always moving in the hydrologic
cycle among the oceans, atmosphere, soil, and
subsurface rocks. These movements are crucial for
human existence.
The size of streams varies with geographic
location, local topography, nature of the underlying
bedrock, stage of stream development, and the
amount of human intervention in the natural cycle.
All of these factors influence the possibility of
flooding. Although the probability of future floods
can be calculated, the estimate is based on past
occurrences and is a statistical average.
Human civilization always interferes with the
natural development of streams and their water-
carrying capacity. Urbanization, artificial
channeling, and dam construction alleviate human
problems in the short run (the term in office of
elected politicians) but are harmful in the long
run. And the long run commonly is not really that
long, only a few tens of years. It is advisable not to
live on a floodplain near an active river. As long as
people do such inadvisable things, human disasters
will continue to be more frequent than would
otherwise occur.