CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING SOCIETY

STREAMFLOW FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE KELANI RIVER

USING A DATA DRIVEN TECHNIQUE
A.D.K.M.D.Wimalasena1 and B.M.L.A. Basnayake1
1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Ruhuna, Galle, Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT
Flooding can be taken as a major disaster in Sri Lanka and thousands of people loss their properties due to floods and
their life patterns also get collapse. So, flood forecasting is really necessary as a short-term flood management solution
to get rid of heavier damage. Colombo is the capital city of Sri Lanka with higher population density and it has a
higher risk to inundate due the Kelani river. So, this research objective is to develop suitable streamflow forecasting
model using auto regression analysis with exogeneous inputs. Hanwella and Nagalagama Street stations were selected
for this case study and model was developed using Rainfall and discharge data of upstream stations up to a calculated
time lag. Nagalagama Street model contains tidal height variation as a special concept for flood forecasting models in
Kelani River. Time lag was calculated using correlation analysis and unknown coefficients were determined using
multiple linear regression. Finally, model was calibrated and validated using Nash coefficient. According to that
validation, this model can be used successfully for future streamflow forecasting activities in Kelani river.

Keywords: Stramflow; Forecasting ; Kelani river ; Flood management

1. INTRODUCTION flood hazards. So streamflow forecasting models were

developed for Nagalagam street and Hanwella locations.
Kelani river basin is one of the most vulnerable river Here Specialty of this research is Nagalagama street
basin for the floods and their damages are costly since it water level dependency with tidal height variation.
flows through the capital. Therefore, it is very essential to
properly control and mange floods in downstream of the 2.2 Data collection
Kelani river. So that, understanding the future streamflow This research is based on discharge and rainfall data from
rate is extremely important and effective streamflow 2003 to 2015 of the relevant stations around Kelani river
forecasting model should be there for that purpose. as shown in Figure 1. Data was collected from
Department of Meteorology and Department of Irrigation,
Basically, these available forecasting techniques can be Sri Lanka.
divided into two general classes.
2.3 Input determination
1. Process based methods
2. Data driven methods
The process based methods conceive the streamflow
process based on some understating of those physical
process. On the other hand, data-driven methods are
fundamentally methods, which mathematically identified
the connection between the inputs and outputs, without
considering the internal physical mechanism of watershed
system of interest (Wang, 2006). However, data-driven
methods are computationally fast and involve less input
parameter compared to process based methods.

So the objective of this research is developing a stream
flow forecasting model for the Kelani river using a data
driven technique.
2. METHODOLOGY
2.1 Selection of streamflow forecasting locations
In the Kelani river basin, mainly higher flood level and
higher damage is reported in Colombo and Gampaha
district. Therefore, it is selected lower basin which is
below Hanwella, has plain features that mainly cause to
Figure 1: Data Collecting Stations
One of the most important steps in the streamflow
forecasting modelling is the determination of input
variables. The method is based on the correlation
analysis. Collected discharge and rainfall data can be used
to find 2 type of correlation called auto correlation and
cross-correlation. Using that resultant graphs, lag time
was calculated for each stations and number of inputs was
selected according to that.

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Proceedings of the Undergraduate Research Symposium on Recent Advances in Civil Engineering
3rd January 2018
 CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING SOCIETY

2.4 Model Development

Model was developed according to following basic
functions.

That function was considered as a linear equation and

unknow coefficients were determined using multiple
linear regression.
2.5 Model Calibration
Figure 2:Variation of observed and estimated data of
That equation has errors due to higher number of randomly selected
variables. So, variables were reduced using sensitivity There are few limitations and errors in this model. So,
analysis and principal component analysis. That following future directions can be suggested.
sensitivity analysis was done using Nash coefficient and
• Develop this model with hourly based data
limited the variable with respective their coefficient value
instead of daily based data
variation.
• Use more years and many stations to collect data
2.6 Model Validation • Develop non-linear model to get significant
impact from rainfall data.
With selected 20% of data, validation was done with
As well as AR model, ANN technique can be used as
checking both Nash coefficient and correlation coefficient
another complex modelling method. Finally, this research
were checked. Whether that values don’t have significant
may be a beginning for these suggestions.
variation, new models were accepted as accurate models
for future flood forecasting activities.
4. CONCLUSIONS
Q = 0.6689Q - 0.0818Q + 0.0383Q +
H(t+1) H(t) H(t-1) H(t-2) For flood management purpose in Kelani River basin, this
0.1839Q + 1.7121Q -1.2921Q + data driven model can be used accurately. As well as this
G(t) HO(t)) HO(t-1)
1.4135R + 0.1204R + 0.9209R - model is faster than available process based methods.
G(t) G(t-1) HO(t)
0.6665R +0.8861R + 0.3819R
HO(t-1) S(t) S(t-1)
REFERENCES
Q = 0.6283Q + 0.0014Q + 0.0430Q + Dharmasena, G.T., 1996. Application of mathematical
NA(t+1) NA(t) NA(t-1) NA(t-2)
models for flood forcasting in Sri Lanka. Water-Caused
0.0002Q + 0.0011Q -0.0009Q +
G(t) DE(t) DE(t-1) Natural Disasters, their Abatement and Control, pp.225-
0.0022Q - 0.0018Q + 0.0008R + 35.
HO(t) HO(t-1) H(t)
0.0001R + 0.0016R -0.0002R +
H(t-2) AV(t) AV(t-1)
0.001R + 0.0002R + 0.0001R + Wang, W., 2006. Stochasticity, Nonlinearity and
AV(t-2) NO(t) NO(t-1)
0.0812T -0.0145T -0.0143T + 0.0712T -
Forecasting of Streamflow Processes. Netherlands: IOS
(t) (t-1) (t-2) (t-3) press.
0.0138T -0.0553T - 0.0355T + 0.0413T
(t-4) (t-5) (t-6) (t-7)
Q -Discharge
R – Rainfall
T-Tidal height

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Below Figure 2 shows example graph for Nagalama street
observed data variation with estimated data. It has 0.93
correlation coefficient and similarly Hanwella discharge
station model have 0.92 correlation coefficient
(Dharmasena, 1996). When these values are compared
with available mathematical models this accuracy is
enough and good for flood forecasting activities. But
there are some methods, that can be used to develop the
model accuracy.

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Proceedings of the Undergraduate Research Symposium on Recent Advances in Civil Engineering
3rd January 2017