INTRODUCTION

Extreme weather events due to climate change and occurrence of disasters largely affect the state and pace of local
development. Ranked within the top five (5) countries most exposed to multi-hazards and most vulnerable effects of climate change,
the Philippines can mitigate such adverse effects through careful planning. Past occurrences of disasters such as flooding, landslides,
flashfloods and even earthquakes underscore the need for local government units, especially those vulnerable and at risk, to consider
disaster and climate change in the development of comprehensive land use plan.

The Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 (RA 10121), is an act strengthening the disaster risk
reduction and management system, providing for the national disaster and risk reduction and management framework and
institutionalizing the national disaster reduction plan of the country. It is the direct response of the state to uphold the people’s
constitutional rights to life and property by addressing the root causes of vulnerabilities to disasters, strengthening the country’s
institutional capacity for disaster risk reduction and management and building the resilience of local communities to disasters including
climate change impacts. It adopts a holistic, comprehensive, integrated and proactive approach in lessening the socio-economic and
environmental impacts of disasters including climate change and promote the involvement and participation of all sectors and all
stakeholders concerned, at all levels, with strong emphasis on the participation of the local community. It instructs the local governments
to mainstream disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in development process such as policy formulation, socio-
economic development planning, budgeting and governance, particularly in the areas of environment, agriculture, water, energy, health,
education, poverty reduction, land use and urban planning and public infrastructure and housing.

Hence the Local Government Unit of Dingras is mandated to integrate Climate and Disaster Risk Plans to formulate climate
and disaster risk-sensitive Comprehensive Land Use Plans and Zoning Ordinances that would guide the allocation and regulation of
land use so that exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, economic activities and the environment can be minimized or
even prevented.

RATIONALE

The Philippines among the most hazard-prone countries in the world. Millions of individuals are affected annually by disasters
caused by natural hazards. Economic losses are high ending growth prospects of the country. Climate change will increase the
vulnerability of communities due to potential impacts on agricultural productivity, food supply, water availability, health, and coastal and
forest ecosystem degradation. These environmental impacts lead to loss of income and livelihood, increased poverty and reduced
quality of life. These impacts will significantly delay development processes.

Comprehensive land use planning puts one into practice the essence of local autonomy among Local Government Units,
enabling them formulate development goals, objectives and spatial design alternatives, and arrive at sound and socially acceptable
spatial-based policies, strategies, programs and projects. The process rationalizes the location, allocation and use of land based on
social, economic, physical, political/institutional requirements and physical/environmental constraints and opportunities. It provides the
basis for the effective regulation of land and its resources and rationalized allocation of public and private investments.

The CLUP is therefore an integral instrument for local government units to effectively address existing risks, and avoid the creation of
new risks to people, assets and economic activities by rationalizing distribution and development of settlements and the utilization
and management of natural resources. In the context of disaster risk reduction and management, land use planning is proactive
approach, which emphasizes pre-disaster prevention and mitigation. Through anticipatory interventions, it is expected that the
population would be safer, the economy more resilient, and basic service and infrastructure robust. In the process, substantially
reducing resources for disaster response and post disaster recovery and rehabilitation.
Through the CLUP, risks and vulnerabilities can be assessed in detail at the city/municipal and barangay levels; national and
sub-national DRR-CCA strategic priorities can be localized and integrated into the land use plan; development and use of properties,
structure, and resource at the parcel level can be regulated through zoning; local governments can identify and implement local
legislation to support land use policies related to the reduction of risks and vulnerabilities; and local stakeholders can be engaged to
identify socially acceptable policy and program intervention to address DRR-CCA related concerns and issues.

FRAMEWORK

The 2009 Climate Change Act and the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 provides the
fundamental frameworks for key actions toward improving governance and participation, financing, capacity and development as well
as addressing critical hazard challenges, specifically those which are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. The
frameworks used provides structure for mainstreaming climate and disaster risk in the comprehensive land use plan (CLUP). Is shows
how risk information from analysis of the hazards and the vulnerability of elements exposed to these hazards are derived through a
climate and disaster risk assessment (CDRA) process. This information is then integrated into the CLUP resulting in a rationalized
allocation of use land based on limitation posed by the impacts of natural hazards which can be exacerbated by climate change.

The CDRA covers both disaster risk assessment (DRA) and climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVA). The
commonalities of these two processes have been established in the National Climate Change Action Plan. While the disaster risk
assessment uses historical patterns in describing climate-related hazards, climate change adaptation establishes how a changing
climate may influence the frequency and severity of these hazards so actions for mitigation can be designed to accommodate predicted
changes. Pursuing a single approach will be beneficial to local government units since both DRA and CCVA look at the same
geographical area. It will result in the identification of projects that address risks with an added level of safety to accommodate predicted
changes in the climate.

The mainstreaming framework involves two processes: first, the conduct of climate and disaster risk assessment (CDRA); and
second, the mainstreaming of result of the CDRA in the various steps of the CLUP formulation process. The outputs derived from the
climate and disaster risk assessment help in identifying major decision areas that are characterized as areas at risk to natural hazards
and can be exacerbated by vulnerabilities to climate change impacts, including the necessary interventions to address them in the form
of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) options. The formulation of a risk-sensitive comprehensive land
use plan shall be guided by the results of the CDRA in order to create safer and resilient human settlements through rationalized
location of people, assets, economic activities, and sustainable management of resources to effectively reduce and manage climate
and disaster risks.

FRAMEWORK FOR MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISKS IN THE CLUP

METHODOLOGY

Climate Change Information

The basic source for climate information is the Climate Change in the Philippines publication of PAGASA. It includes the
baseline climate trends from 1971-2000 where the projected changes in 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) can be compared
The Municipality of Banna considered the Ilocos Norte provincial data for climate change analysis and projection.

Seasonal Temperature

The seasonal temperature of Banna and for whole Province of Ilocos Norte shown on the table below from the month of
December January to February its temperature is 25.3 at baseline (1971-2000). Climate change projection in the same quarter
increased to 0.8% in 2020 or 26.1% change in temperature. Monthly Temperature Projections in 2020 under medium-range scenario.
The hottest temperature, from March to August with projected mean temperature of 29.1% while December to February are the coldest
months.
 Table No. 1 Seasonal Temperature Increases (in C) 2020 and 2050 under Medium Range Emission Scenario in Ilocos Norte

Observed Baseline Change in 2020 Change in 2050

(1971-2000) (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
25.3 28.1 28.3 27.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.8
Source: PAGASA. 2011. In Partnership with UN-GOP-MDGF Project. Climate Change in the Philippines

Table No. 2 Seasonal Temperature Increases (in C) 2020 and 2050 under Medium Range Emission Scenario in Ilocos Norte

SEASON
PERIOD
DJF MAM JJA SON
Observed
Baseline 25.3 28.1 28.3 27.4
(1971-2000)
Change in 2020
26.1 29.1 29.1 28.3
(2006-2035)
Change in 2050
27.4 30.3 30 29.2
(2036-2065)
Source: PAGASA. 2011. In Partnership with UN-GOP-MDGF Project. Climate Change in the Philippines

By year 2050, it is projected increase in temperature based on PAGASA 2011 Climate Projection show an increase ranging
from 1.7 degrees Celsius to 2.2 degrees Celsius. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season. Higher
temperatures mean heat waves are likely to happen often and last longer, too. Heat waves can be dangerous, causing illnesses such
as heat cramps and heat strokes or even death. Warmer temperature can also lead to a chain reaction of other changes around the
world. That’s because increasing air temperature also affects oceans, weather patterns. The warmer it gets, the more severe the
impacts on people and the environment.

Seasonal Rainfall

Rainfall is a type of precipitation that occurs when water vapor in the atmosphere condenses into droplets that can no longer
be suspended in the air. The occurrence of rainfall is dependent upon the several factors. Things such as prevailing wind, directions,
ground elevation, location within a continental mass and location with respect to mountain ranges, all have major impact on the
possibility of precipitation.

Table No. 3 Seasonal Rainfall Change (in%) 2020 and 2050 under
Medium Range Emission Scenario in Ilocos Norte

Observed Baseline Change in 2020 Change in 2050

(1971-2000)mm (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
-
49.8 185.5 1106.4 595.4 4.4 -3.1 18.0 5.8 18.8 -31.3 20.9 4.7

Source: PAGASA. 2011. In Partnership with UN-GOP-MDGF Project. Climate Change in the Philippines

At observed Baseline (1971-2000), the heaviest rainfall from June, July and August with an average of 1106.4mm, the least
rainfall from December to February. Using the PAGASA data, projection indicates an increase of 199.2mm by year 2020 or 1,305.6mm
rainfall.

Table No. 4 Seasonal Temperature Changes for 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario, Province of
Ilocos Norte

SEASON
PERIOD
DJF MAM JJA SON
Observed
Baseline 49.8 185.5 1106.4 595.4
(1971-2000)
Change in 2020
52.0 179.7 1305.6 629.9
(2006-2035)
Change in 2050
40.8 1048.3 1337.6 623.4
(2036-2065)
Source: PAGASA. 2011. In Partnership with UN-GOP-MDGF Project. Climate Change in the Philippines

Generally, there is a reduction of rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However,
rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season.
Frequency of Extreme Events
 PAGASA data indicates that in Observed Baseline (1971-2000) there are 801 number of days with Tmax> 35 degree
Celcius and by 2020 it is projected 873 additional days or a total of 1671 number of days and the number of dry season.
There are 9015 days on Observed Baseline (1971-2000) with 2 days of extreme rainfall >300mm and by year 2020, it
decreased with a total amount of 1624 days or a total of 7391 number of dry days 19 with number of days with extreme
rainfall >300mm. Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase, but
number of dry days is expected to decrease in 2020 and 2050.
Table No. 5 Frequency of Extreme Events in 2020 and 2050 under Medium-range Emission Scenario
OBSERVED CHANGE IN CHANGE IN
CLIMATE VARIABLE BASELINE 2020 2050
(1971-2000) (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
No. of days with Temp >35
801 1677 3157
degree Celcius
No. of dry days 9015 7391 7425
No. of days with Extreme
4 19 10
Rainfall >300mm

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices has been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and
minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-night index respectively) show there are statistically significant
increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights. However, the trends of increases or decreases in
extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant, although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain
areas in the Philippines.

Table No. 6 Summary of Projected Changes in Climate Variables

Climate Observed Baseline Specific Change Expected
Variable (1971-2000) and Reference Period
Temperature 25.3 °C during the DJF 26.1 °C by 2020 and 27.4 °C
28.1°C during the MAM by 2050 during the DJF
28.3 °C during the JJA 29.1 °C by 2020 and 30.3 °C
27.4 °C during the SON by 2050 during the MAM
29.1°C by 2020 and 30 °C by
2050 during the JJA
28.3 °C by 2020 and 29.2 °C
by 2050 during the SON
General Changes in Information about
Climate Variables Patterns of Change
By 2020 hottest days There is general increase in
may occur in JJA and temperature both 2020 and
MAM. The same may 2050 in all season. Wherein
occur for MAM in summer (MAM) is slightly
2050. Thus, increasing warmer.
temperature for all
seasons expected in
2020 and 2050
 Rainfall 49.8 during the DJF 52.0mm by 2020 and 40.8mm
185.5 during the MAM by 2050 during the DJF
1106.4 during the JJA 179.7mm by 2020 and
595.4 during the SON 127.4mm by 2050 during the
MAM
1305.6mm by 2020 and
1337.6mm by 2050 during the
JJA
629.9mm by 2020 and
623.4mm by 2050 during the
SON
Number of Hot 801 days 1677 days exceeding 35°C in
days 2020
3157 days exceeding 35°C in
2050
Number of Dry 9015 days 7391 days with <2.5 mm of
days rain in 2020
7425 days with <2.5 mm of
rain in 2050
Increase rainfall during Reduction of rainfall in
DJF for 2020 but summer but during amihan
decreases by 2050. rainfall increases by 2020
Decrease rainfall and decrease by 2050
during MAM for 2020 Increase of rainfall during
and 2050. habagat season and
Increase rainfall during transition season by 2020
JJA for 2020 and 2050 and 2050 Drier summer
Increase rainfall during months and wetter habagat
SON by 2020 and months
2050
Increasing No. of Significant increase of
hotdays by year 2020 hotdays in 2020 and 2050
and 2050 is expected
Decreasing No. of dry There will be less dry days
days by year 2020 and compared to baseline
2050 expected in 2020 and 2050

Extreme daily 4 extreme rainfall 19 days with >150 mm of rain There are more Increasing number of
Rainfall events exceeding > in 2020 extreme daily rainfall extreme daily rainfall events
Events 300mm 10 days with >150 mm of rain events in 2020 and in 2020 and 2050.
in 2050 2050. However, there is a relative
decrease of extreme daily
rainfall events from 2020 to
2050.

Hazard Profile

Banna is a 4th class municipality in the province of Ilocos Norte, Philippines. It is characterized with plains and rolling areas.
The eastern part of the town is generally the flat or plain portion of the locality, and the area located west of Magalis River is the hilly
part with barangay Nagpatayan having the highest point with a spot elevation of 542 meters above sea level. The town is criss-crossed
with creeks and major rivers. The major rivers comprises the Magalis river that runs in the middle from barangay Binacag to barangay
Caribquib, Bongo river flows at the eastern part of the town and Padsan river in the north. According to the 2013 Barangay Health
Worker (BHW) actual census of population, Banna has a population of 18,922 people in 3,891 households. The past and present
functional role of Banna in relation to other municipalities is basically as an agricultural producer and supplier. Aside from rice, it also
supplies nearby localities with extra produce of corn, tobacco; root crops like camote, gabi, ginger, peanut, vegetables, fruits and
others.

The climate condition prevailing in the municipality is characterized by wet and dry season. Banna belongs to Type I Climate
characterized by a long dry season and wet season. Dry season occurs from the month of November and ends in the month of April
while the wet season usually comes in the month of May and ends in October. The average temperature is about 27.25°C with the
warmest period between the months of March to May which is moderately hot and with December to February as the coldest month.
Heaviest rainfall usually occurs between July to September. Relative humidity is 75.55 percent (Fahrenheit). Average rainfall
distribution is 116 millimeters. Past records show that typhoons visited the municipality 3 to 5 times annually at which time the lower
portions of the locality along rivers and creeks are flooded. Lately, in 1998, October was the wettest month. Not only in Ilocos Norte
but likewise the entire Region I was visited by series of typhoons and storms.

In Banna, the prevailing wind direction runs north to northwest. The mountain ranges on the eastern side effectively protect the
municipality from strong winds.

Table No. 7 Hazard Maps and Data Sources

Hazard Source Scale Remarks
Maps
Flood Mines and 1:10,000 Depicts areas susceptible to floods,
Susceptibility Geosciences classified as high, moderate and low.
Bureau Available are selected regions,
provinces and municipalities/cities.
Map availability can be viewed at
http://gdis.denr.gov.ph/mgbviewer/ or
mgb.gov.ph
Landslide Mines and 1:10,000 Depicts areas susceptible to landslide,
Susceptibility Geosciences classified as high, moderate and low.
Bureau Available are selected regions,
provinces and municipalities/cities.
Map availability can be viewed at
http://gdis.denr.gov.ph/mgbviewer/ or
mgb.gov.ph
Ground Philippine Institute 1:50,000 Composite ground shaking levels
Shaking of Volcanology and based on hypothetical maximum
Seismology credible earthquake scenarios.
(PHILVOLCS), Available are selected regions,
Office of Civil provinces and municipalities/cities.
Map availability can be viewed at
 Defense (READY www.philvolcs.dost.gov.ph and
Project) www.ndrrmc.gov.ph

FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP

LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP

GROUND SHAKING SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP

The map shows that all 6 barangays of the municipality are susceptibility to flooding. It is attributed to the fact that the
municipality of Banna is traversed by three major rivers namely Padsan River, Bongo River and Magalis River together with its
tributaries. In addition, flooding is common in the municipality due to siltation of river bed, lack of flood control projects particularly in
the rural barangays and lack of drainage facilities especially in the urban barangays. Areas within the highly susceptible barangays
(19) may experience flood heights of at least above 1 meter, while areas within the low to moderate susceptibility barangays (12) may
experience flood heights of less than one meter.
 LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP

The map shows that 8 barangays, all located in the rural area are affected with landslide. These barangays are susceptible to
landslide because they are located on foot slopes, mid slopes and mountain ridges. And based on the study made by MGB, integrity
of the land or soil are already compromised because of the presence of tension cracks, stiff limestone that easily loosen when flash
floods occur in the area.
GROUND SHAKING SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP
 Table 8. Inventory of Hazards

Map Information Hazard Description

Format / Date / Speed Areas
Magnitude Likelihood of
Hazard Source Scale Reference Sytem Susceptibility of Covered
/ Intensity Occurrence
Onset
Flood MGB 1:65000 JPEG/2017/Luzon Moderate 0.5 meter Sudden Floods maybe
1911/Philippines to 1 meter triggered by
Zone III >180mm one
day rainfall with
an estimated
recurrence of
>100 years

Analysis of Inventory of Hazards:

The table shows varying patterns of occurrence and magnitude/intensity of the typhoon recorded from 2004 to 2017. Slowly,
the intensity and magnitude increases from time to time thereby causing devastation to life and property. It is also reflected, that
infrastructure and agricultural damages are greatly affected if disaster or tropical cyclone occurs in the municipality. It is also
noteworthy that barangays commonly affected are those located along the three major rivers namely; Padsan River, Bongo River
and the Magalis River.
 Table 9: Records of Previous Disasters

Hazard Source
Events No. of Affected No. of Houses Damaged to Properties of
and Affected No. of Casualties Persons Damaged Informati
Descripti Barangays Private/Co on/
on/ Date Dead Injured Missing Persons Families Partially Totally Infra Agri Insti mmercial Total

Valencian
o, Hilario,
Lorenzo,
Marcos,
Nagpatay
an,
Typhoon Caesteba
LAWIN/ nan, MDRRM
October Sinamar, 0 0 0 275 55 12 7 10M 32M 0 0 42M C/MDR
21,2016 Valdez, RMO
Bugasi,
Tabtabaga
n,
Caribquib
and
Crispina