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Theory of Behavioral Finance

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Handbook of Research on
Behavioral Finance and
Investment Strategies:
Decision Making in the Financial
Industry
Zeynep Copur
Hacettepe University, Turkey

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ISBN 978-1-4666-7484-4 (hardcover : alk. paper) -- ISBN 978-1-4666-7485-1 (ebook) 1. Investments--Psychological
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1

Chapter 1
Theory of Behavioral Finance
Jaya M. Prosad
Jaypee Business School, India

Sujata Kapoor
Jaypee Business School, India

Jhumur Sengupta
Management Development Institute, India

ABSTRACT
This chapter explores the evolution of modern behavioral finance theories from the traditional framework.
It focuses on three main issues. First, it analyzes the importance of standard finance theories and the
situations where they become insufficient i.e. market anomalies. Second, it signifies the role of behavioral
finance in narrowing down the gaps between traditional finance theories and actual market conditions.
This involves the substitution of standard finance theories with more realistic behavioral theories like the
prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). In the end, it provides a synthesis of academic events that
substantiate the presence of behavioral biases, their underlying psychology and their impact on financial
markets. This chapter also highlights the implications of behavior biases on financial practitioners like
market experts, portfolio managers and individual investors. The chapter concludes with providing the
limitations and future scope of research in behavioral finance.

INTRODUCTION so valuable in the eyes of so prudent a people as


the Dutch; but it has neither the beauty nor the
… The rage for possessing them soon caught the perfume of the rose.- Charles Mackay, on the tulip
middle classes of society, and merchants and mania of 1630’s, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popu-
shopkeepers, even of moderate means, began to lar Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841)
vie with each other in the rarity of these flowers
and the preposterous prices they paid for them. Investors’ irrationality is an inevitable reality
as long as the markets themselves have existed.
One would suppose that there must have been Perhaps its earliest recorded evidence is given by
some great virtue in this flower to have made it Charles Mackay (1841). In his book Memoirs of

DOI: 10.4018/978-1-4666-7484-4.ch001

Copyright © 2015, IGI Global. Copying or distributing in print or electronic forms without written permission of IGI Global is prohibited.

Theory of Behavioral Finance

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Mad- more than a cold, calculative rational agent. Thus,
ness of Crowds, he mentions three instances that the need for understanding such anomalies and
highlight the erratic behavior of crowds. These shortcomings of human judgment involved with
were the Dutch Tulip bubble (1630’s), the South them became the precursor of behavioral finance.
Sea company bubble (1711-1720) and the Mis- Behavioral finance is a relatively new school of
sissippi Company bubble (1719-1720). Out of thought that deals with the influence of psychol-
these, the Dutch Tulip bubble, popularly known ogy on the behavior of financial practitioners and
as tulip mania is one of the most cited accounts. its subsequent impact on stock markets (Sewell,
In the Dutch Golden Age, a new flower ‘Tulip’ 2007). It signifies the role of psychological biases
was introduced in the Netherlands. The Dutch and their specific behavioral outcome in decision
people became excited about this exotic variety making. Meir Statman (1999) explains its concept
and started investing their money in it. Gradually in a more straight forward term by stating that
investments in tulips became a craze which pushed “People in standard finance are rational. People
the prices higher and higher. At the peak of tulip in behavioral finance are normal”. This field tries
mania, a single bulb sold for more than 10 times to replace the rational homo economicus with a
the annual income of a skilled worker. The market more realistic behavioral agent who is ruled by
finally collapsed when people sensed they have sentiments and is prone to make biased decisions.
spent a greater part of their income on a flower The knowledge about behavioral biases provides
bulb. They started to dispose of their tulip stocks a deeper insight into the underlying psychology
as quickly as possible and the price plummeted, of market participants. It enlightens us about the
leading to heavy losses (Mackay, 1841; Dash, fact that because of our psychology, or more aptly
2001, Shiller, 2005). our human nature, we are prone to make certain
Events like the tulip mania makes us ask a very mistakes. These mistakes can prove to be very
basic question: are investors really rational? This costly in financial markets and thus they can’t
question has been raised by various researchers in be ignored. Stock market crashes are one of the
the past and it relates to the dilemma that investor consequences of such ignorance. This makes
behavior does not conform to traditional finan- behavioral finance an extremely relevant topic
cial theories. The traditional theories focus on a in today’s times. This field helps the financial
widely accepted approach of “fully rational agent” practitioners in recognizing their own mistakes
where decision making is based solely on avail- along with those of others, understanding the
able data and mathematically proven concepts. reasons behind these mistakes and avoiding them.
This approach was considered the backbone of It makes the practitioners more aware of the forces
financial decision making until its predictions did that guide them in their decision making, as well
not confirm with actual market conditions. In an as those driving the market. In this chapter we aim
ideal scenario where this approach is applicable, to discuss the progression of behavioral finance
the market is informationally efficient, i.e. the theories from the traditional framework. We then
security prices would incorporate all the informa- critically analyze the importance of traditional
tion available in the market. In this case, all the theories in the field of finance and the situations
securities would be fairly priced. However, we do where they lack, along with the significance of
not live in such a utopian world and the markets behavioral finance in narrowing down these gaps.
are largely inefficient. The presence of market We finally provide a synthesis of academic events
anomalies like speculative bubbles, overreaction that substantiate the presence of behavioral biases,
and underreaction to new information, is a proof their underlying psychology and their impact on
that the financial decision making process involves financial markets.

2

Theory of Behavioral Finance

TRADITIONAL APPROACH further elucidated by Barberis and Thaler (2003).


TO INVESTOR BEHAVIOR According to them rationality has two pronged
focus. First, when agents receive new informa-
Mid eighteenth century is considered to be the tion they update their beliefs correctly according
onset of the classical period in economics (Pom- to Bayes’ law. Second, given their beliefs, the
pian, 2011). It is during this time that the concept agents take decisions which would maximize
of utility was introduced which measured the their expected utility. Table 1 provides the sum-
satisfaction of individuals by consuming a good or mary of these classical researchers that starts
a service (Bernoulli, 1738). In 1844, John Stuart with the standard theory of individual choice,
Mill introduced the concept of rational economic i.e. the expected utility theory, followed by the
man or homo economicus who tries to maximize classical models in asset pricing theories that are
his economic well being given the constraints he Markowitz portfolio model and the capital asset
faces. The three underlying assumptions for this pricing model. The discussion concludes with one
agent are; perfect rationality, perfect self- inter- of the most referred as well as equally criticized
est and perfect information. These assumptions theories, the efficient market hypothesis.
became the basis of the traditional financial Expected Utility Theory (Bernoulli, 1738,
framework that sought equilibrium solutions by 1954; von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1944) states
maximizing marginal utilities of individuals sub- that the market participants make their decisions
ject to situational constraint (Pompian, 2011). The under risk by comparing the expected utility values
behavior of individuals representing this paradigm of the available alternatives. Rational investors act
is uniform as their main focus is on optimizing to maximize their expected utility that is calculated
their marginal gains. As the noted researcher as weighted sums of utility values multiplied by
Meir Statman (1999, pp. 19) once quoted that their respective probabilities. It categorizes the
“Standard finance is built on the pillars of the decision makers into risk averse, risk neutral
arbitrage principles of Mille r and Modigliani, and risk loving individuals. Further, it explains
the portfolio principles of Markowitz, the capital that the utility function for a risk averse investor
asset pricing theory of Sharpe, Lintner and Black, is concave (figure 1a). This implies that, for an
and the option pricing theory of Black, Scholes increase in expected wealth the utility function of
and Merton.” Standard finance theories have been a risk averse person decreases. In other words, for
developed to find mathematical explanations to the same amount of utility a risk averse person
real life financial problems. Their basic assumption would like to take lesser risk than a risk loving
is based on rationality of people. This concept is person. It explains the difference between inves-

Table 1. Traditional financial theories

Author Year Finding


John Stuart Mill 1844 Introduced the concept of Economic Man or homo economicus.
Bernoulli 1738, 1954
Expected utility theory
Von Neumann and Morgenstern 1944
Harry Markowitz 1952 Markowitz portfolio theory
Treynor, Sharpe and Lintner 1962,1964, 1965
Capital asset pricing model
Jan Mossin 1966
Eugene Fama 1970 Efficient market hypothesis

3

Theory of Behavioral Finance

Figure 1. Expected utility functions for three risk attitude types

tors’ behavior with respect to their risk tolerance. estimate of fair or benchmark return. It also helps
This theory along with its variants like subjective the investors to make an educated guess of the
expected utility theory (Savage, 1964) was the most expected return of securities that have not yet been
accepted theory for decades in financial literature traded in the stock market (Bodie et al., 2009). We
in decision making under risk. enlist the basic assumptions of the CAPM. These
The rationality of the agents turned out to be the assumptions, try to ensure the homogeneity (or
key to unlock the stock market behavior. Alongside alikeness) in the behavior of individuals (Bodie
this assumption, several corresponding theories et al., 2009).
developed that established the groundwork of
standard finance theories. The predominant theo- • It considers that there are many individuals
ries amongst these were the Markowitz portfolio in the market, each with a certain amount
theory and the capital asset pricing model. of wealth which is small as compared to
Markowitz (1952) introduces the portfolio the total wealth of all investors. Perfect
selection model. It describes the process of op- competition prevails in the market where
timal portfolio construction by selecting several the investors are price-takers and the secu-
risky securities and a risk free asset. It deals with rity prices are not affected by their trades.
maximizing the expected return of the portfolio • All investors have an identical holding
for a given amount of risk, or, minimizing the risk period and their expectations are myopic
for a given amount of expected return. It helps in such that they would ignore everything that
diversification of portfolio by selecting securi- might occur at the end of the period.
ties with most optimal risk-return opportunity. • The investments are limited only to public-
Markowitz portfolio theory formed the basis of ly traded financial assets. The non-traded
one of the most central asset pricing models in assets like that of private enterprises are
finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). excluded. It is also assumed that investors
CAPM is developed by Sharpe (1964), Lintner may borrow or lend any amount at a risk-
(1965) and Mossin (1966). It gives the relationship free rate.
that should be observed between the risk of the • Investors do not pay any taxes on returns
asset and its expected return. The expected return and there are no transaction costs on trad-
of an asset derived from this model provides an ing securities.

4

Theory of Behavioral Finance

• All investors are rational and they would The Theoretical Assumptions
try to optimize the risk-return tradeoff of of the EMH
their personal portfolio.
• The investors try to mimic the market port- The Theoretical Assumptions of the EMH
folio, which is considered to be efficient as
it incorporates all the relevant information • Investors are assumed to be rational.
about the universe of securities. Therefore, Therefore, they value the securities ra-
all the securities in market portfolio are tionally, incorporating all the available
fairly priced. information.
• Investors are as alike as possible and they • Irrational investors, if present, trade ran-
analyze the securities in the same way i.e. domly; therefore their trades cancel each
they have homogeneous expectations. other out without affecting the prices.
• Further, the effect of irrational investors on
The simplicity of CAPM makes it the most prices is also eliminated by the trading ac-
widely used asset pricing models. However, tra- tivities of arbitrageurs.
ditional theorists abandoned the CAPM in favor
of Fama and French’s (1992) three-factor model The Empirical Assumptions
when the CAPM produced anomalies inconsistent of the EMH
with market efficiency (Statman, 1999).
A great deal of asset pricing theories is based The EMH turned out to be an enormous empiri-
on the assumption of market efficiency, which cal success in the first decade of its conception.
is introduced and explained by Fama (1970). He Jensen (1978, pp. 95) stated that, ‘there is no other
defines the efficient financial market as one in proposition in economics which has more solid
which security prices always fully reflect avail- empirical evidence supporting it than the Efficient
able information. It further identifies that in an Market Hypothesis’. The empirical focus of the
efficient market all the investors are well informed, EMH has two aspects. It first considers the impact
rational individuals who aim to maximize their of new information on security prices. It states
profits. This means that if the efficient market that any new information in the market should
hypothesis (EMH) holds true, then the investors be incorporated in the security prices quickly
cannot hope to beat the market and no amount and correctly such that price trends or reversals
of analysis would help in generating abnormal could not exist after the initial impact of the news.
returns. This theory takes the standard finance Secondly, since the price of a security is equal
literature one notch higher by taking into account to its value; therefore it should only move when
irrational traders. It notes that the irrational or there is a news about a change in its fundamental
noise traders can distort the prices, but it is a value and not otherwise. It is further noted that
temporary phenomenon and is quickly eliminated in an efficient market scenario old information
by the arbitrageurs. We illustrate the theoretical has no monetary value. Fama (1970) categorizes
and empirical assumptions of EMH as discussed the old information into three types which gives
by Shleifer (2000). rise to three forms of market efficiencies: weak,
semi-strong and strong.

5

Theory of Behavioral Finance

• In the weak form of market efficiency, the ated when market participants drive the security
past prices and returns are taken as old prices way above their fair price. During this phase
information and here technical or trend people disregard the fundamental valuation and
analysis cannot yield superior abnormal get attracted to such overpriced securities which
returns. strengthen the mispricing even more. However,
• In semi-strong form of market efficiency, this ‘hot market’ situation ends when companies
any publicly available information is con- fail to achieve their promised targets or the demand
sidered old and its fundamental analysis declines. Experts like Mackay (1841) highlight the
also fails to give superior returns. This importance of behavioral biases like herd mental-
means that as soon as the information be- ity as the cause of this situation. The existence of
comes public it gets incorporated into se- such bubbles defies the very core of the “standard
curity prices. finance theories”.
• However, investors can still earn abnor- The essence of standard finance theories can be
mal returns by having information that is captured into four foundation blocks: 1) investors
not made public i.e. insider trading. Here are rational; 2) markets are efficient; 3) investors
comes the importance of strong market should design their portfolio according to the rules
efficiency wherein even insider trading of mean variance portfolio 4) Expected returns are
cannot provide abnormal return as this in- a function of risk and risk alone (Statman, 2008).
formation leaks out quickly and gets incor- Behavioral finance offers an alternative for each of
porated into security prices. these blocks. It states that investors are “normal”
not rational, the markets are not efficient even when
For a very long period of time these theories they are difficult to beat, investors do not design
were considered to be the ultimate explanation their portfolio on mean-variance theory and the
for investor and market behavior. However, in expected returns are measured by more than just
recent times researchers have been observing risk (Statman, 2008). We try to examine each of
that traditional theories get significantly violated these blocks with the help of suitable behavioral
in actual market conditions. They have started concept in the subsequent section starting with
accepting that these theories are based on the the brief history of the discipline itself.
over-simplified assumptions. Its foundations are Behavioral finance emerged as a branch of
built on how market participants ought to behave social psychology that captures the human side of
rather than how they actually behave. This led to decision making. Research in this field started in
the emergence of behavioral finance which factors the eighteenth century with significant works like
irrationalities and biases of investors. Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759) and Wealth of
Nations (1776) by Adam Smith. In these studies
Smith suggests the presence of an “invisible hand”
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE APPROACH or the morality of individuals that guides them
in making social, economic and even financial
The rationality of investors became debatable decisions. Smith (1759) emphasizes on the role
from the time standard finance theories could not of sentiments like pride, shame, insecurity and
give sufficient explanation for the stock market egotism. Another contemporary thinker, Jeremy
anomalies. One of the most apparent example of Bentham (1789) highlights the psychological
such an anomaly is the stock market bubble, for aspects of utility function. Bentham argues that
instance the dot-com bubble of the 1990’s (Cooper human concern for happiness makes it impos-
et al., 2001) or the recent real estate bubble of sible for them to make a decision that is entirely
2006 (Zhou & Sornette, 2006). A bubble is cre- devoid of emotions. These researchers stress on

6

Theory of Behavioral Finance

the role of psychology on economic behavior, but • Normative Approach: It is concerned


their consensus was lost over the next century. with rational decision making process. It
This work was then reinstated in the twentieth provides ideal solution which a decision
century. Selden (1912) identifies that the stock making process should strive to achieve.
price movements on the exchanges are dependent • Descriptive Approach: It deals with the
on the mental attitude of investors. The role of manner in which people actually make de-
sentiment is also observed by Keynes (1936) as cisions in the real life situations.
the “animal spirits” of individuals. Keynes along • Prescriptive Approach: It provides the
with many other researchers criticized the concept individuals with practical advice and tools
of homo economicus and argued that no human that might help them in achieving results
can be completely informed of every situation in that are in close approximation to the nor-
order to maximize her expected utility. Instead, mative analysis.
they advocate the theory of the bounded rationality
given by Simon (1955). This theory assumes that The path-breaking work in behavioral finance
rationality of individuals is constrained by two is credited to the psychologists Daniel Kahneman
factors: information they have at their disposal and and Amos Tversky. They introduced the concept of
the cognitive limitations of their minds. Bounded prospect theory for the analysis of decision making
rationality is a more relaxed version of standard under risk (1979). This theory is considered to be
expected utility theory. It is also more realistic to the backbone of behavioral finance. It was devel-
its traditional counterpart as it incorporates the oped as an alternative model for expected utility
limitations of the human judgment. The utility theory. It throws light on how individual evaluate
function is further explored by Pratt (1964). The gain or losses. This theory has three key aspects.
author compares the utility with respect to local
risk aversion and global risk aversion and explains • Key Aspect 1: People sometimes exhibit
that the decision maker will have a greater local risk aversion and sometimes exhibit risk
risk aversion if he is globally more risk averse. The loving behavior depending on the nature of
author also gives a related utility function where the prospect. This is because people give
risk is measured as a proportion of total assets. lower weight age to the outcomes which
In 1956 the US psychologist Leon Festinger are probable as compared to those that are
introduces the concept of cognitive dissonance certain. This makes them risk averse for
(Festinger, Riecken & Schachter 1956) which choices with sure gains while risk seek-
occurs when two simultaneously held cognitions er for choices with sure losses. It is also
are inconsistent. Moreover, this dissonance cre- known as certainty effect.
ates a feeling of unpleasantness or unrest in the • Key Aspect 2: People assign value to loss-
people such that they try to avoid it or reduce it by es or gains rather than final assets. Here
changing their beliefs. The mental processes that two thought processes come into play.
are a part of cognitive psychology have been ex- These are editing and evaluation. During
amined by various experts with respect to decision the editing stage, the prospects are ranked
making under uncertainty. One of the significant as per the rules of thumb (heuristics) and
contributions to this body of literature is by Raiffa in evaluation stage, some reference point is
(1968). The author analyzes decisions under three taken into account that provides a relative
approaches that provide a more pragmatic view of basis for determining gain or losses. This
an individual’s thought process. These approaches reference point is usually their status quo.
are mentioned as follows.

7

Theory of Behavioral Finance

• Key Aspect 3: The weight age given to Prospect theory is considered to be the seminal
losses is higher than given to gains of the work in behavioral finance and it forms the under-
same amount. This is because people are lying basis of biases like loss aversion, framing
averse to losses as they loom larger than and the disposition effect.
gains. This is called loss aversion. It can be seen from the above literature that
the work on incorporating behavioral aspects to
The value function in the prospect theory traditional theories started quite early. This area
replaces the utility function in the expected util- started gaining the spotlight in late 1970’s and
ity theory. In addition, instead of using simple 80’s. The works of Simon (1955), Pratt (1964),
probabilities as in the expected utility theory, it Raiffa (1968) and Kahneman and Tversky (1979)
uses decision weights which are a function of provide an alternative to the expected utility theory.
probability. The value function of the prospect In later years, the expected utility theory wasn’t
theory is shown below in figure 2. the only theory which faced criticism. Proponents
In this figure the value function of loss is steeper of behavioral finance also found flaws in other
than the gains which corroborate the fact that standard finance theories like the capital asset
people overweigh their losses. Another finding is pricing model (CAPM), the Markowitz portfolio
that this function is concave for gains while convex selection model and the efficient market hypoth-
for losses. This leads to the interpretation of four esis (EMH).
fold pattern of risk attitude in individuals (Tversky Statman (1999) points that traditional asset
& Kahneman, 1992) which is mentioned below. pricing models like the CAPM determine the
expected return of a security at a given point of
• Risk seeker for gains with low probability. time, but do not consider the same over a period
• Risk aversion for gains with high of time that could provide an explanation for the
probability. stock market bubbles. The author also argues
• Risk aversion for losses with low that the rationality in the security prices in the
probability. efficient market hypothesis reflects only the utili-
• Risk seeker for losses with high probability. tarian characteristics like risk and not the value

Figure 2. The value function in the prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979)

8

Theory of Behavioral Finance

expressive characteristics such as sentiments. He price bubbles, and collapse of several well-known
states that both these characteristics influence the hedge funds in 1998. Some of the key points of
risk premium. Further, the author suggests that Shleifer are enumerated below.
experts should explore the asset pricing models
that reflect both value expressive and utilitarian • It is impossible for investors being com-
characteristics. pletely rational. Most of the investors react
A similar model is previously developed by to irrelevant information or they trade on
Shefrin and Statman (1994) called the behavioral noise rather than information.
asset pricing model (BAPM). This model explains • These investors are prone to various biases
the market interaction of two groups of traders, like narrow framing, the disposition ef-
i.e. the informational traders and the noise traders. fect, loss aversion, representativeness and
Information traders are the rational traders who overreaction.
follow the CAPM whereas noise traders are the • It counters the assumption of the EMH
ones who do not follow the CAPM and commit which states that the irrational investors, if
cognitive errors. Here the expected return on exist, trade randomly such that their trades
securities is determined by their behavioral betas. cancel each other out leaving no impact on
Shefrin and Statman (1999) also develop an stock prices whatsoever. In contrast to this
alternative to the Markowitz portfolio theory, Shleifer argues that trades of irrational in-
named as the behavioral portfolio theory (BPT). In vestors would not be random, rather they
the Markowitz model, the investors build a mean would buy or sell the same securities at the
variance portfolio, thereby trying to optimize their same time.
risk-return tradeoff. Here the portfolio is evaluated • The study suggests that, contrary to the
as a whole and the risk attitude of the investors EMH, arbitrage in real situations is risky
is also consistent. In contrast, the BPT takes into and therefore limited. Since the prerequi-
account the behavioral investors that construct site for any arbitrage is the availability of
their portfolios as the pyramids of assets, layer same or essentially similar substitutes, yet
by layer, where each layer is associated with its in many cases securities might not have
specific goal and risk attitude. This theory tries to such close substitutes. This constraint lim-
explain a part of investor behavior that deals with its the effectiveness of arbitrage which con-
their differential attitude towards risk. tributes in making the markets inefficient.
In 1990’s and 2000 the efficient market hypoth-
esis was also challenged by various researchers Further contradictions for the EMH are pre-
like Andrei Shleifer (2000) and Robert Shiller sented by Shiller (1981, 2000). In 1981 the author
(2000). Shleifer (2000) provides an alternative ap- analyzes the stock market volatility and shows that
proach to study financial markets with the help of the stock prices are far more volatile than could
behavioral finance. The author acknowledges the be explained by standard financial theories. In his
fact the in actual financial markets, irrational in- bestselling book Irrational Exuberance, Shiller
vestors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources (2000) analyses the ups and downs of Dow Jones
are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and industrial average with a behavioral approach of
agency problems. He presents behavioral models market participants. He stresses on the impact
that explain various market anomalies such as the on investor perception, along with psychological
superior performance of value stocks, the closed and cultural factors in creating the bubble phase
end fund puzzle, the higher returns on stocks in- of DJIA during late 1990’s. In a separate re-
cluded in market indices, the persistence of stock search Jagdeesh and Titman (1993) also provide

9

Theory of Behavioral Finance

significant evidence for momentum. They found INTRODUCTION TO


that individual stock prices over a period of six BEHAVIORAL BIASES
to twelve months tends to predict the future price
movement in the same direction. This finding Behavioral finance captures the role of behavioral
violates even the weak form of market efficiency. biases in investor decision making. Shefrin (2000)
The aforementioned literature substantiates broadly classifies these biases into two types: heu-
that the standard finance theories alone cannot ristic driven biases and frame dependent biases.
explain the anomalies of stock markets. In recent
times, the researchers have recognized the impor- • Heuristic driven biases: Shefrin (2000)
tance of incorporating behavioral factors into the recognizes that financial practitioners use
traditional theories to get a more realistic insight rules of thumb or heuristics to process data
into the functioning of stock markets. These and make decisions. For instance, people
researches along with various other significant believe that future performance of the
contributions are summarized in Table 2. stock can be best predicted by past perfor-
In the next section we will unveil some of the mance. The author categorizes such biases
behavioral irrationalities identified by eminent under heuristic theme which includes over-
psychologists and throw light on how these tenden- confidence, anchoring and adjustment, re-
cies can result in anomalies in financial markets. inforcement learning, excessive optimism
and pessimism.

Table 2. Behavioral finance theories

Researcher Name Year Theory/ Concept/ Model


Herbert Simon 1955 Models of bounded rationality
Festinger, Riecken and Schachter 1956 Theory of cognitive dissonance
Tversky and Kahneman 1973,1974 Introduced heuristic biases: availability, representativeness, anchoring and
adjustment
Kahneman and Tversky 1979 The prospect theory, introduced loss aversion bias
Tversky and Kahneman 1981 Introduced Framing Bias
Richard Thaler 1985 Introduced mental accounting bias
De Bondt and Thaler 1985 Theory of overreaction in stock markets.
Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny 1998 Investor sentiment model for underreaction and overreaction of stock prices.
Meir Statman 1999 Behavioral asset pricing theory and behavioral portfolio theory
Andrei Shleifer 2000 Linkage of behavioral finance with Efficient market Hypothesis to find that
stock markets are inefficient.
Barberis, Huang and Santos 2001 Incorporation of prospect theory in asset prices.
Grinblatt and Keloharju 2001 Role of behavioral factors in determining trading behavior.
Hubert Fromlet 2001 Importance of behavioral finance. Emphasis on departure from ‘homo
economicus’ or traditional paradigm to more realistic paradigm.
Barberis and Thaler 2003 Survey of Behavioral Finance
Coval and Shumway 2006 Effect of behavioral biases on stock prices. The price reversal for biased
investors is quicker than unbiased investors

10

Theory of Behavioral Finance

Figure 3. Categorization of behavioral biases

• Frame dependent biases: The decision Heuristic Driven Biases


process of financial practitioners is also
influenced by the way they frame their op- Heuristics are introduced by Tversky and Kahne-
tions. This theme includes biases like nar- man in 1974. As described earlier, these are the
row framing, mental accounting and the rules of thumb or mental shortcuts that help people
disposition effect. in reaching decisions quickly and easily. These
shortcuts, although helpful, can lead to errone-
Behavioral biases are also categorized by ous decisions. Three heuristics given by Tversky
Pompian (2011) into cognitive and emotional and Kahneman (1974) that are used for decision
biases (Figure 3). The cognitive biases include making under uncertainty are representativeness,
overconfidence, representativeness, anchoring availability, and anchoring and adjustment
and adjustment, framing, cognitive dissonance, Representativeness: It is the tendency of indi-
availability, mental accounting, etc. The emotional viduals to estimate the likelihood of an event by
biases include endowment bias, loss aversion, comparing it to a previous incident that already
optimism and status quo. exists in their minds. This existing incident is
We discuss the presence and impact of some generally what they consider to be the most rel-
of the prominent biases in this section. These evant or typical example of the current event. The
biases are categorized along the lines of Shefrin empirical evidence of representativeness has been
(2000) into heuristic and frame dependent biases. given by Dhar and Kumar (2001) who examines the
Table 3 summarizes the findings of the studies stock price trend for stocks bought by more than
on these biases. 62,000 households at a discount brokerage during
a 5-year period. The author finds that investors
tend to buy stocks with recent positive abnormal

11

Theory of Behavioral Finance

Table 3. Summary of literature on various behavioral biases

Bias Name Author Findings


Tversky and Kahneman (1974) Tendency of individuals to estimate the likelihood of an event by comparing it to a
previous incident that already exists in their minds.

Kumar (2001) Past price trend is representative of the future price trend as investors tend to buy
Representativeness
stocks with recent positive abnormal returns.

Kaestner (2005) Investors extrapolate the recent earnings surprise and hence overreact to subsequent
earnings surprise.

Tversky and Kahneman (1973, 1974) It is the ease with which relevant issues come to mind. It creates a selection bias in
decision making.
Availability
Kliger and Kudryavtsev (2010) Stock price reaction to recommendation revisions (up or down) is stronger when
accompanied by index returns in the same direction.

Tversky and Kahneman (1974) Tendency of people to estimate an unknown value with the help of an initial value
Anchoring or “anchor”.

Campbell and Sharpe (2009) Expert forecasts releases are biased (anchored) towards previous months releases.

Odean (1998a) Investors’ tendency to overestimate the precision of their knowledge about the value
of a security.

Daniel, Hirshleifer and Overconfidence of investors leads to negative serial correlation in prices (price
Subrahmanyam (1998) reversals).
Overconfidence
Barber and Odean (2000) Overconfidence increases trading activity in investors that in turn depletes their
wealth due to higher trading costs.

Gervais and Odean (2001) Past successes in trades makes investors overconfident and leads to high trading
volume in future periods.

Heifetz and Spiegel (2001) Investors’ tendency to overestimate (underestimate) the expected mean returns of
the risky asset.

Toshino and Suto (2004) Optimistic investors selectively incorporate only good news in their decision making
Optimism (Pessimism) process.

Shefrin and Statman (2011) Excessive optimism creates speculative bubbles in financial markets.

Hoffman and Post (2011) Identify the drivers of optimism and pessimism that are return expectations, return
tolerance and risk perceptions.

Kahneman and Tversky (1979) Loss brings regret and people try to avoid losses in order to avoid subsequent regret.

Coval and Shumway (2003) Analyzed loss aversion in intra-day trading.


A loss in the morning leads to higher risk taking behavior of market makers in the
afternoon.
Loss aversion
Berkelaar and Kouwenberg (2008) Investors with heterogeneous loss aversion become gradually less risk averse when
they experience gains, pushing the security prices up.

Hwang and Satchell (2010) Level of loss aversion changes depending on market conditions. Investors become
more loss averse in bull markets than bear markets.

Shefrin (2000) Tendency of investors to treat repeated risks as if they were a one-shot deal.

Barberis and Huang (2005) People evaluate a new gamble in isolation, separated from their other risks, even if it
is just one of many that determine their overall wealth risk.
Narrow Framing
Liu and Wang (2010) Investors could easily become susceptible to narrow framing when trading in
the complex derivatives market. Factors like professionalism, sophistication and
experience can reduce this bias to a certain extent.

Thaler (1999) Investors make mental accounts of their wealth which have an impact on stock
selection decisions
Mental accounting
Barberis and Huang (2001) Comparison between stock accounting by investors to portfolio accounting. Change
in investors mental system of accounting affects asset prices.

continued on folllowing page

12

Theory of Behavioral Finance

Table 3. continued.

Bias Name Author Findings


Shefrin and Statman (1985) Tendency of investors to sell winning stocks early and holding on to losing stocks

Odean (1998b) Using the ratio of proportion of gains realized (PGR) to proportion of loss realized
(PLR) show that investors are prone to the disposition effect.

Disposition Effect Grinblatt and Keloharju (2001) Evidence of the disposition effect in Finnish stock market.

Shumway and Wu (2006) The disposition effect drives momentum in Shanghai stock exchange.

Alok Kumar (2009) In order to avoid regret investors continue to hold on to loss making stocks in the
hope of future gains

Lakonishok et al. (1991) Developed a model which measures herding by studying a subset of market
participants over time.

Scharfstein and Stein (1990) Examined herding in money managers. Reputational concerns and ‘sharing-the-
Herding behavior
blame’ effect, were some of the factors that could drive managers to herd

Christie and Huang (1995) Investigated the presence of herding using cross-sectional standard deviation
(CSSD). Analyzed that herding exists in periods of market extremes.

Samuelson and Zeckhauser (1988) Individuals tend to disproportionately stick to their status quo, i.e. maintaining one’s
current or previous decision.

Brown and Kagel (2009) Status quo prevails in an environment in which there are very low costs of
Status quo Bias
identifying better performing stocks.

Jianbiao Identified factors affecting the status quo bias as framing, investors’ emotion and
information structure.

returns. This is consistent with the heuristic stronger when accompanied by index returns in
that the past price trend is representative of the the same direction.
future price trend. Another instance is presented Anchoring and Adjustment bias: This bias
by Kaestner (2005) who uses the data on current comes into play when people have to estimate an
and past earnings for U.S. listed companies for unknown value or magnitude. Here people start
the period of 1983-1999 and suggest that investor their estimation by guessing some initial value
overreaction to earnings announcement could be or an “anchor”. This anchor is then adjusted and
attributed to representativeness bias. The author refined to arrive at the final estimate. Campbell
states that investors initially extrapolate the recent and Sharpe (2009) investigate the presence of
earnings surprise and hence overreact to subse- anchoring bias in analysts’ forecasts of monthly
quent earnings surprise. economic releases for a period of 1991 to 2006.
Availability bias: In this case people evaluate They find that forecasts of any given release
the probability of an outcome based on the famil- were anchored towards the recent months’ real-
iarity or prevalence of that particular outcome. ized values of that release, thereby giving rise to
People prone to availability bias give higher likeli- predictable surprises. This effect is consistent for
hood to the events which they can easily recall as each of the key releases.
compared to the ones that difficult to remember The aforementioned researches substantiate
or comprehend. Kliger and Kudryavtsev (2010) the importance of the representativeness, avail-
identify this bias in investors’ reaction to analysts’ ability and anchoring bias. It can be observed that
recommendation revisions. They use daily market representativeness is based on stereotypes and it
returns as a proxy for information on outcome causes positive earnings surprises to be followed
availability. They find that stock price reaction by more positive surprises and negative surprises
to recommendation revisions (up or down) is by more negative surprises (Shefrin, 2000). Rep-

13

Theory of Behavioral Finance

resentativeness along with availability bias can Optimism: In financial context optimism (pes-
create overreactions in investors and stock markets. simism) is defined as the propensity of investors
Finally the influence of anchoring and adjustment to overestimate (underestimate) the expected
bias can make the earnings surprises predictable. mean returns of the risky asset (Heifetz & Spie-
Along with representativeness, availability gel, 2001; Germain et al., 2005; Barone Adesi
and anchoring bias, the other equally relevant et al., 2012). Researchers have studied this bias
and widely researched heuristic driven biases are with respect to its impact on the stock markets as
overconfidence and optimism. well as the factors that drive this bias. Toshino
Overconfidence: It is defined as the investors’ and Suto (2004) investigate optimism bias in
tendency to overestimate the precision of their Japanese institutional investors. They use survey
knowledge about the value of a security (Odean, based data and find that the optimistic investors
1998a). Overconfidence is one of the most highly are more sensitive towards positive market news.
researched biases with abundant empirical find- They selectively incorporate only good news in
ings. Daniel et al. (1998) develop a model based their decision making process. Further, investors
on overconfidence of investors who overestimate affected by optimism bias tend to undervalue the
the precision of their private signals and show that risk of familiar investment products such that they
overconfidence leads to negative serial correlation are more optimistic towards the domestic market
in prices (price reversals). Gervais and Odean than foreign markets. Shefrin and Statman (2011)
(2001) formulate a multi-period market model find that excessive optimism can create speculative
to estimate overconfidence. They propose that bubbles in financial markets by inflating the prices
overconfidence is enhanced in those investors who of securities above their intrinsic values. They
have experienced high returns; as a result they trade further state that if bubbles last long enough, some
more frequently. Therefore overconfidence leads pessimists might become convinced that they are
to increase in trading volume. On the other hand, wrong and can convert into optimists and in the
a loss in the market reduces overconfidence level process they are likely to intensify this phenom-
and subsequently the transaction volume. They enon. Hoffman and Post (2011) identify the drivers
assign a positive relationship between volume of of investors’ optimism and fear (pessimism) based
transaction and lagged performance of the market. on their return expectations, return tolerance and
Odean (1999) and Barber and Odean, (2000; 2001) risk perceptions. They use a data set of brokerage
empirically test the theory of overconfidence. records as well as monthly survey measurements
They provide evidence that overconfidence leads to analyze the impact of the past return and past
to greater trading volume in financial markets. risk on the drivers of optimism (pessimism). They
Using the data from individual investor accounts discover that past returns positively impact return
held with a large U.S. brokerage firm, they propose expectations, return tolerance and negatively im-
that higher trading in turn leads to lower expected pact risk perceptions. They reason that investors
utility or poor portfolio performance. are prone to hot hands fallacy, which means that
Most of these researches reveal that over- past returns will continue in future. This makes
confidence is an illusion of superior knowledge them more optimistic in return expectations if
in investors, which is strengthened by their past there past returns are positive. However, past risk
successes. This tendency makes them trade more has no effect on these parameters.
as they become sure of the positive outcome. Optimism (pessimism) is a very influential
However increase in trading volume comes with bias. It is responsible for setting the mood of the
high a trading cost which proves to be detrimental financial markets. This bias is driven by past re-
to the portfolio performance. turns that have an impact on return expectations,

14

Theory of Behavioral Finance

return tolerance and risk perception of investors. aversion in financial market using the typical asset
This bias is so potent that it can create stock allocation model for annual data of U.K. pension
market bubbles and can convert even pessimists funds from 1963 to 2003. Their results reveal
to optimists. that financial markets are more loss averse than
These researches affirm that heuristic driven assumed in literature. Further, this bias change
biases have a fair share of influence on the in- depending on market conditions, for instance,
vestors’ choices and actions. In the next section investors become more loss averse in bull markets
we analyze the role of second category given by than during bear markets indicating the pain of
Shefrin (2000) i.e. the frame dependent biases. a loss is larger when others are enjoying gains.
They also find that investors are more sensitive
Frame Dependent Biases to changes in loss than in gains.
These studies reveal that there is a differential
The roots of frame dependence trace back to the impact of gains and losses on decision outcome.
study by Kahnemann and Tversky (1979). This Further, the pain of loss is described to be greater
work is taken forward by Shefrin (2000) who than pleasure of an equal amount of gain, which
mentions several frame dependent biases, the makes the investors more sensitive to a change in
prominent ones amongst those biases are being the loss. These researches also throw light on the
discussed here. These are loss aversion, narrow risk attitude pattern of individuals. It is seen that
framing, mental accounting and the disposition people become risk seeker or less risk averse in
effect. the prospect experiencing loss of high probability.
Loss aversion: It is introduced by Kahneman Narrow framing: Shefrin (2000) describes
and Tversky (1979) and refers to the tendency of narrow framing as the tendency of investors to
individuals to strongly avoid losses as compared treat repeated risks as if they were a one-shot
obtaining gains. This is because loss brings regret deal. Barberis and Huang (2006) elaborate this
and impact is much greater than that of gains. bias in the context of gambling. They state that, it
Several researchers have studied the impact of is the phenomenon wherein people evaluate each
loss aversion in financial markets. Joshua D. new gamble in isolation, separating it from their
Coval and Tyler Shumway (2005) analyze the other risks. In other words, people will ignore all
effect of loss aversion bias in terms of risk taking the previous choices that determine their overall
in market makers. They show that in intra-day wealth risk and directly derive the utility from
trading, a loss in the morning leads to higher their current risk. Liu and Wang (2010) docu-
risk taking behavior in the afternoon. Berkelaar ment the presence of narrow framing effect in
and Kouwenberg (2008) examine the impact of the options trading market. They used the daily
heterogeneous loss averse investors on asset prices trading volume data of Taiwan Futures Exchange
using annual U.S. consumption data for a period for a period of 2001 to 2004. The findings of this
of 1889 to 1985. Their study shows that in a good study indicate that investors could easily become
state loss averse investor gradually become less susceptible to narrow framing when trading in
risk averse as wealth rises above their reference the complex derivatives market. They simplify
point, pushing equity prices up. On the other hand, complicated trading strategies into understandable
when wealth drops below the reference point the trading decisions. The study also supports the fact
investors become risk seeking and demand for that traders’ professionalism, sophistication and
stock increases drastically. This eventually leads experience can reduce this bias to a certain extent.
to forced sell-off and subsequently stock market Mental accounting: Its concept is given by
busts. Hwang and Satchell (2010) investigate loss Thaler (1999). It is defined as the tendency of

15

Theory of Behavioral Finance

individuals to separate their information into by the authors are loss aversion, seeking pride,
manageable mental accounts. Thaler (1999) ex- mental accounting and regret avoidance. Odean
plains that mental accounting is a set of cognitive (1998b) documents the presence of the disposi-
operations used by individuals to organize, evalu- tion effect using market data on 10000 discount
ate, and keep track of financial activities. Mental brokerage accounts of individual investors. In his
accounting comprises of three components. First study, the ratio of realized gain over total gains,
component captures how outcomes are perceived (i.e. proportion of gains realized or PGR) and the
and experienced, how decisions are made and sub- ratio of realized loss over total loss (i.e. propor-
sequently evaluated. Second component involves tion of loss realized PLR) are taken as measures
the assignment of activities to specific accounts. to calculate the disposition effect. He finds that
The final component focuses on the frequency a majority of investors are reluctant to realize
with which accounts are evaluated and ‘choice their losses. Grinblatt and Keloharju (2001) find
bracketing’. Barberis and Huang (2001) study evidence of the disposition effect in the Finnish
investors’ mental accounting using simulated data stock market using a data set of shareholdings
of equilibrium firm-level stock returns. They find and trades of individual and institutional inves-
that the investors’ system of mental accounting tors between 1994 and 1997. Shumway and Wu
affects asset prices. They track the changes in (2006) using a sample of 13,460 Chinese investors
portfolio performance as the individual’s decision note that a majority of these investors exhibit the
frame shifts from stock accounting to portfolio disposition effect and it drives momentum in the
accounting. Their results reveal that when this Shanghai stock exchange. Kumar (2009) uses
happens, the mean value of individual stock return multiple measures of valuation uncertainty and
falls, the stocks become less volatile and more behavioral bias proxies to find that individual
correlated with each other. investors exhibit stronger disposition effect when
Both narrow framing and mental accounting stocks are harder to value and when market-level
are cognitive processes that simplify the complex uncertainty is higher.
decision making problem for investors. In narrow The above mentioned empirical evidences on
framing, individuals treat their risks in isolation the disposition effect show that this bias has an
rather than taking a holistic view. This bias can lead impact on trading volume of stocks. Further, this
to overestimation of risk and make the investors bias gets intensified in the presence of uncertainty
myopic in their investment outlook. On the other and has the strength to drive momentum in the
hand, during mental accounting people segregate stock market.
the information into different mental accounts. Along with the above mentioned researches,
They evaluate the performance of each account behavioral finance includes several other biases
separately instead of evaluating the performance that are equally important. Some of them are
of their portfolio as a whole. So although, this discussed below.
bias helps the investors in managing complex Herding: It is the tendency of investors to fol-
information, it can create distortion in asset prices. low the crowd. One of the pioneer researches on
The disposition effect: Shefrin and Statman herding is done by Lakonishok et al. (1991). They
(1985) introduce the concept of the disposition studied the role of herding and positive feedback
effect. It is defined as the tendency of investors to trading in destabilizing the stock prices. Accord-
hold on to losing stocks and sell winning stocks ing to them, herding referred to mimicking the
early. This concept is built on the implications of investment actions of other fund managers at the
prospect theory (Kanheman & Tversky, 1979). same point of time; while positive feedback trading
The possible reasons for this effect as proposed referred to buying winners and selling losers. The

16

Theory of Behavioral Finance

data set used in their study comprised of quarterly regardless of the changes in their environment.
portfolio holdings of all-equity, pension funds Brown and Kagel (2009) conduct lab experiment
from year 1985 to1989.They developed a model on simplified stock market and find that this status
which measures herding by studying a subset of quo bias is significant across individuals, over
market participants over time. However, they did time and is independent of the stock performance.
not find any substantial evidence of herding or Further, it prevails in an environment in which
positive feedback trading by pension fund manag- there are very low costs of identifying better per-
ers except in small stocks. Scharfstein and Stein forming stocks. They explain that the underlying
(1990) examine some of the factors that could factor behind this bias is individuals’ reluctance
lead to herd behavior in investment decisions of to receive information that might question their
money managers. They develop a model which own abilities; therefore they choose to restrict
separated smart managers from biased (dumb) their comparisons to their existing choices rather
managers. Smart managers are those who received than considering other options that were at their
informative signals about the value of an invest- disposal. Li et al. (2009) analyze the presence of
ment, whereas the biased (dumb) managers receive status quo bias, its determinants, and its impact
purely noise signals. They identify that reputa- on investor decision making using experimental
tional concerns and ‘sharing-the-blame’ effect, method. Their study reveals the factors affecting
are some of the factors that could drive managers the status quo bias are framing, investors’ emotion
to herd. Christie and Huang (1995) identify herd- and information structure. They demonstrate that
ing behavior in the market using cross sectional investors’ have a lower level of status quo bias
standard deviation (CSSD) of individual asset under positive emotion, while a higher level under
returns. CSSD is used to measure the proximity negative emotion. They also explain that people
of asset returns to the realized market average. in general try to elude vague options if they have
They analyzed that herding exists in periods of a choice to do so and would rather maintain their
market extremes. They argued that when investors original position.
follow aggregate market movement, disregarding Research work on status quo, shows that in-
their own judgment (herding) then individual asset dividuals succumb to this bias when the existing
returns will not diverge much from overall market alternatives are vague or inconsistent with their
return. Therefore the value of CSSD gets reduced. own beliefs. Further, emotional state of investors
Past studies on herding suggest that it is an also contributes to this bias as the intensity of this
extremely powerful bias. When people start mim- bias is higher for negative emotion as compared to
icking each other, the impact of their behavior positive emotion. These findings emphasize that
gets intensified. It can result in bubbles when the behavioral biases have far reaching implications
demand is high and crashes when people detect on the stock market and its players. Such implica-
overpricing and go on a selling spree (Smith 1991, tions are being pondered upon in the next section.
Smith, 2011). It is not only observed in common
investors, but also prevails in market experts like Implications of Behavioral Biases
trade analysts, portfolio managers, investment
managers, etc. This bias can have a drastic ef-
It can be seen historically that ignoring the be-
fect on the stock markets, particularly during the
havior of the decision making process can prove
periods of extreme i.e. bull and bear phase, when
to be quite expensive in the financial markets
the stock markets are most susceptible.
as it can result in stock market anomalies. For
Status quo bias: Samuelson and Zeckhauser
this reason, awareness about behavioral biases is
(1988) define the status quo bias as the tendency
indispensable.
of individuals to maintain their previous decisions

17

Theory of Behavioral Finance

As behavioral biases are unequivocally asso- are in fact irrational and their decision making
ciated wherever human beings are involved; its biased. This can cause possible inefficiencies in the
implications become very wide. Hence, we narrow financial markets. Behavioral finance provided a
down our focus to implications that concern the more realistic view to the researchers and concepts
financial practitioners. It can be suggested that a like the prospect theory, the behavioral portfolio
good grasp of this area will equip the practitioners theory, the behavioral asset pricing theory and
not just to recognize others mistakes but their own the inefficient markets emerged. These concepts
mistakes as well. It facilitates financial advisors incorporated the psychological aspects of investor
to become more effective by understanding their thought process and introduced some important
clients’ psychology. It aids them in developing behavioral biases that are either heuristic driven
behaviorally modified portfolio, which best suits like representativeness, availability and anchor-
their clients’ predisposition. It helps investment ing and adjustment or frame dependent like loss
bankers in understanding the market sentiments aversion and narrow framing.
as they make public issues for their companies. These biases have a significant impact on the
It assists the financial strategists in making better stock market. Previous researches suggest that
forecasts and security analysts for recommending heuristics like representativeness, availability and
stocks. Finally, the knowledge of behavioral biases anchoring are responsible for overreaction (under-
is required for individual investors in the pursuit of reaction) in the stock market. While other heuris-
making sensible and effective financial decisions. tics like overconfidence and optimism can create
an increase in trading volume and even speculative
bubbles. The studies on frame dependent biases
CONCLUSION reveal that biases like loss aversion can increase
investors’ risk seeking tendencies when facing the
The chapter describes the evolution of behavioral probability of heavy losses. The disposition effect
finance from standard finance theories. It discusses can make investors to sell shares whose price have
various traditional theories like expected utility increased, while holding stocks that have dropped
theory, the Markowitz portfolio model, the capi- in value. It also has an impact on trading volume
tal asset pricing model and the efficient market of the stocks. Other frame dependent biases are
hypothesis. Each of these theories is considered narrow framing and mental accounting. In narrow
pillars in finance and they have a massive impact framing, investors take into account only their cur-
on financial researches throughout the history. rent risk and disregard the risks of their previous
These theories revolve around some basic as- investments. On the other hand, investors affected
sumptions, such as the rationality of individuals by mental accounting segregate their wealth into
and efficiency of the market. separate mental accounts based on the different
However, the applicability of these theories purpose their wealth serves.
became questionable in real life scenarios when Along with the heuristic and frame dependent
these rendered insufficient explanations to market biases there are other biases that share equal im-
anomalies like speculative bubbles, overreaction portance, and these are herding and status quo
(underreaction), momentum and reversals, etc. bias. Herd behavior along with optimism is one
the attention of researchers was then directed to- of the major precursors of speculative bubbles in
wards an alternative explanation that became the the stock market. Herding is responsible for stock
discipline: behavioral finance. Behavioral finance market crashes as well. Herding tendency in people
relaxes the limitations of traditional finance theo- makes them unsure about their own reasoning
ries. It starts with accepting the fact that investors and sure about the decision of the masses. This

18

Theory of Behavioral Finance

bias exists even in sophisticated and professional has already paved the way for a new and improved
market participants like portfolio managers and finance. It has provided an understanding of deci-
trade analysts that can make their recommenda- sion makers that is more intuitive and presents a
tions and forecasts biased. Another relevant bias truer picture as compared to the standard finance.
is the status quo bias. People with this bias try
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Theory of Behavioral Finance

Thaler, R., & Shefrin, H. (1981). An economic Mental Accounting: Defined as the tendency
theory of self-control. Journal of Political Econ- to segregate complex information into manage-
omy, 89(2), 392–410. able mental accounts. In investment terms, people
separate their assets into different categories
depending on the purpose each category fulfills.
Narrow Framing Bias: A myopic approach of
KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS
investors wherein they make investment decisions
Anchoring and Adjustment: A heuristic used without considering the context of their entire
to estimate an unknown value by starting with a portfolio. People affected with this bias focus
known figure (anchor) which is then adjusted to their attention to specific, seemingly attractive
arrive at a final value. In this case, people tend investment options while they tend to overlook
to get biased towards the anchor rather than away the full range of options available to them.
from it. Optimism Bias: It causes people to believe
Availability Bias: Tendency of individuals to that they are less likely to experience negative
give more weight age to recent information which incidents. In financial terms, it is the tendency
could be recalled easily. of investors to overestimate the expected return
Behavioral Finance: A field of finance that of a security.
incorporates the influence of psychology on the Overconfidence: Propensity of individuals
behavior of financial practitioners and its role in to overestimate their own knowledge and ability
explaining market anomalies. to perform.
Disposition Effect: A tendency of investors Prospect Theory: A concept given by Kah-
to start selling the shares that have gained value neman and Tversky (1979). This theory analyses
early, while, holding the losers for too long. the decision making process of individuals under
Efficient Market Hypothesis: A concept risk. Here the choices are determined in terms of
given by Fama (1970) that describes an efficient loss and gains. It suggests that same level of joy
financial market as one in which security prices and pain does not have equal effect on people.
completely reflect the available information. An average individual tends to be more sensitive
Further, the investors in this scenario are well towards losses than gains. This tendency is called
informed and make rational choices, such that the loss aversion.
mispricing of securities cannot occur. Representativeness: A heuristic driven bias
Herding Bias: It is the propensity of investors wherein individuals asses their options by com-
to mimic the crowd without taking into consider- paring its similarity with an existing prototype.
ation their own judgment. Status Quo Bias: People affected by this bias
Market Anomalies: (Market Inefficiencies): prefer to maintain their current position, irrespec-
Aberrations in financial markets that cannot be tive of the change in their environment.
explained by efficient market hypothesis, for e.g.
speculative bubbles, crashes, overreaction and
under reaction.

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