Correlations between PM2.

5 and Climate
Change in Beijing, China

Jiaqi Liu

Abstract:
The climate change is related to air quality considering that air quality is
strongly dependent on weather. The interaction between weathering and air quality
contributes to change. In this project, a linear model will be applied to analyze the
correlations between the amount of PM2.5 and the climate change using the data of
four years (2011-2014) observational record from the Mission China air quality
monitoring program of U.S Department of State Data Use Statement. The total PM2.5
amount data of Beijing is used for high concentration situation analysis for this
project. The detailed analysis of different components of weather factors such as dew
points, combined wind direction, cumulated hours of snow and rain will be studied.
The correlation between PM2.5 and climate change can be determined using the
multiple linear regression method.
1. Introduction

With the rapid industrial development and economic growth in China, air

quality has become a concerning social and ecological issue for both government and

residents. Beijing as the capital of China and the center of industries are going

through a hard time to deal with air quality problems. The issues mainly emphasis on

the amount of PM2.5 on the surface of the earth. The PM2.5 represents the particle

matters that is less than 2.5𝜇𝑚 in diameter which is a major air quality concern. At

the same time, it will cause a health problem to human. Its light weight and small size

allow people to inhale those particles with potential damage to the health system. The

fine particles come from different sources, such as power plants, airplanes, motor

vehicles, forest fires, and other burnings. It consists of different components, such as

methane, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, organic carbon. Some of the components

will have a different effect on climate change while some of them cool the air and

others increase the temperature. For example, the SO2 will increases the temperature

due to the oxidation. However, for components such as nitrate and organics will

decrease in the high temperature. Considering the components are complicated to

analysis individually, the total concentration of PM2.5 is studied in this case.

Meanwhile, there are lots of factors that influence the phenomenon caused by climate

change. Meteorological variables are used in this case.

In order to get a better understanding of how the correlations between PM2.5

and climate change, the meteorological data are analyzed. For example, the PM2.5

can influence the temperature while it contains chemical exposures that will have

reactions inside the air. The dew point will be influenced by the concentration of

PM2.5 inside the air while it will interact with the water droplet floating in the air.

Meanwhile, the pressure will be an important factor related to climate change. The

meteorology variables are representative indicators of climate changing. Instead of

analysis the detailed components of PM2.5, the research work on the total
concentration of PM2.5 to evaluate the correlations between the PM2.5 and the

meteorology data.

Lots of modeling tools are being applied to analyze the correlation between

PM2.5 and climate change. In this case, the multiple linear methods are applied to

study the strength of the relationship and how two factors can be related. The multiple

linear methods is a good indicator of whether the relationship is existing between two

factors. At the same time, the graphics analysis tools are used to present the detailed

correlations, which can be a supplement of the multiple linear methods. Based on

these two analyze methods, the correlation between PM2.5 and climate change in

Beijing can be found.

2. Data and Method

2.1 Meteorological Data

Daily mean meteorological data from 2011 to 2014 of Beijing were obtained

from the climate monitor program carried by Peking University. The meteorological

data includes the dew point, temperature, pressure and the cumulated hours of snow

and rain as it listed in the following table1. They are the meteorological parameters

used to seek the correlations between PM2.5 and climate changes. Dew point

temperature is the air at which air must be cooled that it can become saturated or

achieve 100 percent humidity. As the atmosphere warms, the severe droughts and

floods will grow depending on the dew point and air temperature, which will result in

climate change. Atmospheric pressure is significant factors of weather and climate. It

is also a factor contributing to climate change. The cumulated hours of snow and rain

consider being a seasonal factor in this case. It will be analyzed for specific seasons

due to its special temperature and moisture requirement.

 Table1: meteorology variables for multiple linear regression analysis

Independent Variable Definition

X1 Dew Point (℃)

X2 Temperature (℃)

X3 Pressure (hPa)

X4 Cumulated Hours of Snow (hours)

X5 Cumulated Hours of Rain (hours)

2.2 PM2.5 Data

The daily mean surface concentration of total PM2.5 from 2011 to 2014 were

obtained from the Mission China air quality monitoring program of the U.S

Department of State Data Use Statement. It shows the daily average total

concentration of PM2.5 based on the site located in Beijing. As it is shown in figure 1,

the total concentration of air pollution PM2.5 over 10 years is constant. The

concentration of 2008 is relatively low due to the facts that the Olympic Game was

held in Beijing in 2008. The city published legal regulation for air pollution emission.

In this case, the data from 2010 to 2014 was selected to investigate the correlation for

a high concentration of PM2.5.

Figure1: The PM2.5 level of Beijing from 2008 to 2017

2.3 Multiple Linear Regression

Multiple linear regression is a widely-used statistical technique that uses

several explanatory variables to predict the outcomes of a response variable. It is used

to model the linear relationship between two variables. Assuming there is a linear

relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variables, the

strength of the relationship can be determined through this method.

𝑦% = 𝛽( + 𝛽* 𝑥%* + 𝛽, 𝑥%, + ⋯ +∈

where for i=5 observations:

𝑦% = 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒

𝑥% = 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠

𝛽( = 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚

𝛽> = 𝑠𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑎𝑐ℎ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒

∈= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚

There are some results of the multiple linear regression, such as multiple R,

R square, adjusted R square, standard error, and observations. Multiple R is the

correlation coefficient that measures the strength of a linear relationship between two

variables. And its absolute value indicates the relationship strength. For example, 1

means a strong positive relationship. -1 means a strong negative relationship. 0 means

no relationship at all. R square is the coefficient of determination, which is used as an

indicator of the goodness of fit. It shows how many points fall on the regression line.

The R square values are calculated from the total sum of squares, it is the sum of the

squared deviations of the original data from the mean. 0.80 means 80% of the

dependent variables fits the regression model analysis model which is considered it be

good fitting. Adjusted R square is more suitable for multiple regression analysis

comparing to R square. Standard Error shows the precision of the regression analysis.

The smaller the number, the more certain can be about the regression equation.
Observation is an indicator of how many data are used to form the model. All the

regressions are conducted by EXCEL and the resulting sample is shown the Figure2.

Figure 2: Example Result of Multiple Linear Regression

In addition to the multiple linear regression, the monthly analysis is conducted

for a monthly subset of data. The data are generally used to show graphical

relationships between two variables. They show the same tendency as the 4-year

regression analysis while they also highlight some differences.

3. Analysis& Results

3.1 Total PM2.5 Concentration

The relationship of total PM2.5 concentration with the meteorological

variables are indicated by multiple R, adjusted R square and standard error.

Individual researches are conducted for the detailed variables, such as temperature,

dew point, pressure. The relationship is relatively small and hard to determine based

on the multiple linear regression. The results of multiple R are shown in figure 3.

The PM2.5 and meteorological variables have a positive relationship, which means

with the increase of total concentration, the temperature or dew point increases too.
The strength of the linear relationship is relatively weak while its value is less than

0.5. As is shown in figure 3, all the values are less than 0.5 and the dew point has

the highest value which indicates a relatively strong relationship between the

concentration of PM2.5 and dew point. As for the R square, it indicates how many

data fit in the linear model. As is shown in figure 4, all the variables fall out of 50%

and close to 2%, which shows the data are not divided uniformly in the linear model.

The deviation is relatively large in this case. Meanwhile, the standard error is large

which means the precision of regression analysis is low. The standard errors are

larger than 90 for all variables. The linear relationship is weak for the total

concentration of PM2.5 and meteorological variables based on the multiple linear

regression analysis.

Figure 3. Multiple R of Meteorological Variables

Figure 4. R Square of Meteorological Variables

 Figure 5. Standard Error of Meteorological Variables

3.2 Monthly analysis of individual variables

Monthly data are used for short-term correlation analysis between the

PM2.5 concentration and meteorological variables. It is a graphical way to present

the tendency. As is shown in figure 6, the points have a haphazard distribution for

the temperature. The relationship can be barely found based on the point

distribution. In this case, the change of temperature is defined to be barely related

to the total concentration of PM2.5. On the other hand, the dew point shows an

obvious increasing tendency with the increased amount of PM2.5. The points shape

in a positive slope line. In this case, the relationship between the two variables is

verifiable. However, the monthly analysis has its own limitation. Firstly, there are

obvious seasonal differences. For example, winter will have more PM2.5 particles

in the air due to the increasing need for heating system and increasing particle

emission of burning. Meanwhile, the dew point is greatly influenced by other

factors, such as pressure and wind. It is hard to specify correlations.

 Figure 6: PM2.5 daily concentration vs. temperature in Jan 2010

Figure 7: PM2.5 daily concentration vs. dew point in Jan 2010

4. Discussion

The correlation between the total concentration of PM2.5 and

meteorological variables are unable to identify using the multiple linear

relationships. In other words, there is no clear relationship between the total

concentration of PM2.5 and meteorological variables. The meteorological variables

all have a positive association with the total concentration of PM2.5 based on the

analyze. However, the strength of the linear relationship is too small to prove the

correlations. Meanwhile, the standard errors are too large to convince a relationship

is exist.

As for temperature, the multiple linear regression results show no

relationship with the PM2.5 concentration. Based on other researches, the sulfate

and OC have a strong positive correlation of observed PM2.5 with temperature.

(Amos P.K. Tai, 2010). However, it also presented a negative response to other

sensitivity studies. (Kleeman, 2008). Due to the limitation of the methods, the

relationships are hard to determine by simply conducting local analyze.

The dew point presents a relatively strong positive relationship with the total

concentration of PM2.5. While the dew point is related to the moisture content in

the air and it is isolated from temperature, it is a better indicator than moisture for

the PM2.5 analyze. Even though it indicates a stronger relationship than other

variables, it still hard to identify that there is a relationship. Meanwhile, the pressure

has no clear clue to show a relationship.

As for the cumulative hour of rain and snow, the relationship is hard to find

due to the seasonal changes. While the cumulative hour of rain and snow are mainly

depended on the seasonal changes and the survey is conducted for the whole year,

the relationship is unable to determine through the multiple linear regression.

There are lots of limitations on the results and the data processing

procedures. First of all, the time range is hard to select for the analysis. While the

variables have seasonal influences, the time range will be hard to determine. In this

case, a four-year data is selected which probably be large to analyze. The large

database will result in the indistinct relationship. Secondly, the study didn’t take the

stagnation or other meteorological conditions into consideration. Those factors play

important roles in the observed correlations. Thirdly, the research data is based on
 a single location. The data is not adequate for general analysis. More data from

different locations will be preferable for analyzing the general correlation between

PM2.5 concentration and meteorological variables.

5. Conclusion

The study examined the correlation between individual meteorological

variables and the total concentration of PM2.5 in Beijing. This research provides

an insight into how good the meteorological variables related to the concentration

of PM2.5. Based on previous studies, the results of this research is reasonable due

to the limitations of research methods and data selections. The meteorological

correlations varied significantly across cities and seasons. The local data is

inadequate for general analysis while it is hard to apply local patterns to a broad

rule. Meanwhile, different research periods and meteorological variables are

selected for different researches. The comparison of studies is not applicable to

the findings. The methodologies used for studies can’t be systematically

classified. It is hard to convince any general ideas for the correlation between

PM2.5 and climate change. In order to conduct comprehensive studies, the

seasonal and spatial variables and multiple locations should be emphasized in the

future. Detailed researches should be conducted to study the correlations between

the different components of PM2.5 and meteorological variables. With fully

developed methodology, different locations around the world should be analyzed

based on the geographical conditions and seasonal climate.

Even though there is no clear indicator for correlation between the total

concentration of PM2.5 and climate change, it is necessary for public pay attention

to the global air quality and climate change issue. For the consideration of the

public, the PM2.5 has a close link with the heart and lung disease. PM2.5 is one of

the main cause for the disease of the respiratory system while it can be easily
inhaled by a human. The government should publish legal regulation to control air

pollution issues. As for climate change, it is a widely-discussed topic. The IPCC

predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4 degrees

Fahrenheit above 1990 levels will produce beneficial impacts in some regions and

harmful ones in others. Net annual costs will increase over time as global

temperatures increase. (IPCC, 2013) It has a global impact that needs all human-

beings to pay attention to.

Reference List:

1. Kleeman, M.J., 2008. A preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of air quality in

California to global change. Climatic Change 87, S273eS292. doi:10.1007/

S10584-007-9351-3.

2. Amos P.K. Tai, Loretta J. Mickley, Daniel J. Jacob,2010. Correlations between

fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States:

Implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change, Atmospheric

Environment 44 (2010) 3976e3984

3. Ziyue Chen, Xiaoming Xie(2018). Understanding meteorological influences on

PM2:5 concentrations across China: a temporal and spatial perspective, Atmos.

Chem. Phys., 18, 5343–5358, 2018

4. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical

Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K.

Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M.

Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and

New York, NY, USA.

5. The Mission China air quality monitoring program of the U.S Department of State

Data Use Statement. http://www.stateair.net/web/post/1/1.HTML

6. Song Xi Chen, csx '@' gsm.pku.edu.cn, Guanghua School of Management, Center

for Statistical Science, Peking University.