Petroleum Resources

Classification
&
Reserves Estimation
 Resources
Resources(Recoverable
(RecoverableResources)
Resources)
Petroleum
Petroleumwhich
whichare
areanticipated
anticipatedtotobe
becommercially
commerciallyrecovered
recovered
from
fromknown
knownaccumulations
accumulationsfrom
fromaagiven
givendate
dateforward
forward

Discovered
DiscoveredResources
Resources Undiscovered
UndiscoveredResources
Resources
Total
Totaldiscovered
discovereddeliverable
deliverablequantities
quantities Total
Totalestimated
estimatedquantities
quantitiestotobe
be
based
basedononininplace
placevolume
volumeand
andrecovery
recovery recovered
recoveredfrom
fromaccumulations
accumulationsthat that
factor
factor remainto
remaintobebediscovered
discovered

Hypothetical Speculative
Mapped prospects Not yet been mapped

Reserves Potential Resources

Aticipated to be Not commercially
commercially recovered producible at present
from known
accumulations from a
given date forward
 Reserves
Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered
from known accumulations from a given date forward

Proved Reserves Unproved Reserves

Estimated with reasonable certainty Less certain to be recovered than
to be commercially recovered proved reserves

Probable reserves Possible reserves

More likely than not Less likely than likely
to be recovered to be recovered

Developed Undeveloped
Reserves Reserves
Expected to be Expected to be recovered
recovered form with additional capital
existing wells investment
 Reserves Estimation
Developed Areas Existing Producing Wells
Infill Wells
Booster Compression

Undeveloped Areas Primary Wells

Infill Wells
Booster Compression

Unproved Areas Primary Wells

Infill Wells
Booster Compression
 Reserves Estimation
Calculation Parameters

• Performance Reserves
• Volumetric Reserves

Method
• Deterministic
• Probabilistic
Performance-Based Reserves Calculation

Deterministic
• Material Balance
• Decline Curved Analysis
• Simulation

Probabilistic
• Apply ranges of performance-based
parameters
• Statistically combined the parameters to
obtain a range of reserves and their
probabilities
 Volumetric Reserves Calculation
Deterministic
Vol (std. cond.) = Area * Thickness * 0 * (1-Sw) * RF
FVF
RF = Recovery Factor ; 40-70 % for gas
5-25 % for oil
FVF = Formation Volume Factor

Probabilistic
Same formula
Apply range of parameters
Obtain ranges of possible outcomes and their associated
probabilities
 Probabilistic Estimation
Possible ?
Probability
Cum. Probability
90 th percentile

Probable ?
Mean
Mean, P50
10 th percentile 90 th percentile 10 th percentile

Value Value

Proved ?
 Applying Statistics in Reserves Estimation
Probabilistic estimate is very useful to form an
uncertainty range of and estimation.

Its implication is “what the safe side of the estimate

and what the outrageous one are”

If statistical method is to be used, each reserve

category should be assessed on different basis to
reflect its inherent different level of confidence in
data from which it is derived.

Criteria in assessing level of confidence is

qualitatively spelled out in SPE/WPC definitions.
 Reserves Estimation Methods

Existing Producing Wells

• Performance Reserves
– Material Balance
– Decline Curve Analysis
• Volumetric Calculation
– Performanced-based
 Reserves Estimation Methods
Example: Chevron Offshore Thailand

Undeveloped areas
P5/50/95
Subsuface Data • Area
• Seismic • Col Height 3 Point
• Core • net pay
OGOP/OOIP
• Log • Porosity
• Saturation
• RFT

Benchamas Total Oil Reserves

In-house P10/50/90
1.00
P3+P2+P1
0.90

•Condensate Yield
0.80

Software
0.70

0.60
P2+P1

•Primary Recovery
0.50

(Crystal Ball)
0.40

•Secondary Recovery
0.30
Primary Total Benchamas

0.20 Waterflood Total Benchamas

P1 Developed P1 Total
Primary Developed Benchamas
0.10

•Geologic Risk
0.00
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
MMBO
Example Probabilistic Reserves
 Performance-Based
Volumetric Reserves Estimation

Parameters measured from real performance

1. Net Pay (ft)

2. Recovery (MMscf/ft, BBL/ft)

Analogous Groups Prospects

• Group A
High-conf. • Group B
• Group C
...
Data
 Performance-Based
Volumetric Reserves Estimation
Example: Unocal Thailand
Normalized to
line Pressure
High
Confidence Calculated
Recoveries Areas

Significant
Depletion
Mean of Inferred
Change from Volumetric to
Areas Based on
Performance Control
Geologic
Analogies
Volumetric
Acquire Reserves
Performance Calculation
Data
Performance-based Reserve Calculation
• Plan conceptual platform location
• Group wells by geological features
• Fill high-confidence well data in each
analogous group of conceptual wells
• Apply constraints
• Establish reserve distributions
• Apply risk factors
Well Dist. Pay Distribution (FT) Rec. Distribution (MMCF/FT PAY ) Reserves (IN BCF) Risk Risked
Ref. to Grp.* Reserves
Map (Bcf)
(First
Swn.'s Swn.'s Swn.'s
Well Del . P10 P18 P50 P82 P90 P10 P18 P50 P82 P90 P10 P50 P90 Trap Resvr. Source Mig. Seal Other POS
Mean Mean Mean
Well for
UPR/UPO
Plats .)
1 Red 57 71 126 222 279 151 16.2 18.8 27.3 39.8 46.2 29.7 1.34 3.44 8.83 4.43 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 0.86 3.79
2 Red 57 71 126 222 279 151 16.2 18.8 27.3 39.8 46.2 29.7 1.34 3.44 8.83 4.43 0.95 1. 00 1.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 0.86 3.79
3 Orange 44 55 101 183 232 123 7.7 9.7 17.1 30.0 37.7 20.4 0.54 1.72 5.49 2.50 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.72 1.80
4 Orange 44 55 101 183 232 123 7.7 9.7 17.1 30.0 37.7 20.4 0.54 1.72 5.49 2.50 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.72 1.80
5 Orange 44 55 101 183 232 123 7.7 9.7 17.1 30.0 37.7 20.4 0.54 1.72 5.49 2.50 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 0.77 1.91
6 Green 56 65 95 139 162 103 8.9 10.7 17.0 27.0 32.5 19.2 0.69 1.61 3.76 1.98 0.65 1.00 1.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.55 1.09
7 Green 56 65 95 139 162 103 8.9 10.7 17.0 27.0 32.5 19.2 0.69 1.61 3.76 1.98 0.70 1.00 1.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 0.63 1.25

Pay Distribution
Reserves Distribution
Recovery Distribution

Mean * Risk = Risked Reserves

 Pay Distribution
kas
LogNormal Probability Distribution

1000.00 Swanson =
150.97
Mean = 152.20
Slope = 0.27
P10 = 56.85
P50 = 125.84

P90

Swansons
Values
P50
Probability %
Values

100.00 Keypoints
ExtraKeys
P10 SwansonsMean

10.00
1 2 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 98 99
Probability %
 696 Wells drilled in B-10, 11, 12, 13, 12/27
Net Pay drilled

700

600

500
feet

400

300

200

100

0
 696 Wells drilled in B-10, 11, 12, 13, 12/27
Net Pay drilled
1000
feet

100

10
 Platform Rollup
kas

LogNormal Probability Distribution

100.00 Swanson =
18. 05
Mean = 18.84

Sum of Mean P90

Slope = 0.42
P10 = 3.38
P50 = 11.79

Swansons

Values
P50
Probability %
Values

10.00 Keypoints
ExtraKeys
SwansonsMean

P10

1.00
1 2 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 95 98 99
Probability %
Not Every Mean is equal
Probability
Which one is the most
confident ?
Mode
Geometric Mean

Median

10 th percentile 90 th percentile

Value
 Not Every Mean is equal
Example from 696 Well Drilled
Geometric 115.18
P50 115.18
Median 128.00
Arithmetic 139.91 21.5 % over P50

Swanson’s Rule
Mean = 0.3*P10 + 0.4*P50 + 0.3*P90
When P50/P10 < 5
Locating Conceptualized Platforms

Delineation well result Log & RFT

Amplitude Anomaly map & Well tie
Estimate gas&oil volume to justify the setting
Analogous Well Data
source
migration
trap
reservoir
Seal

Constraints
• Anomaly map
• Infill well
• Specific Geological Elements
Reserves Distribution

90
Percentile

P50

P10

Volume

P50 reserve = P50netpay * P50recovery

P10 reserve = P18netpay * P18recovery
P90reserve = P82netpay * P82recovery