Seasonal irregularity Seasonal index

Time(t) Year Quarter Sales(000) moving av centred moving avg Yt /CMA St

1 1 4.8 0.93
2 2 4.1 0.84
2014
3 3 6 5.35 5.475 1.10 1.09
4 4 6.5 5.6 5.7375 1.13 1.14
5 1 5.8 5.875 5.975 0.97 0.93
6 2 5.2 6.075 6.1875 0.84 0.84
2015
7 3 6.8 6.3 6.325 1.08 1.09
8 4 7.4 6.35 6.4 1.16 1.14
9 1 6 6.45 6.5375 0.92 0.93
10 2 5.6 6.625 6.675 0.84 0.84
2016
11 3 7.5 6.725 6.7625 1.11 1.09
12 4 7.8 6.8 6.8375 1.14 1.14
13 1 6.3 6.875 6.9375 0.91 0.93
14 2 5.9 7 7.075 0.83 0.84
2017
15 3 8 7.15 1.09
16 4 8.4 1.14
17 0.93
18 0.84
19 1.09
20 2018 1.14
 st*t
Seasonal index Deseasonalize Trend component forecast
Yt/St
5.15 5.25 4.89
Chart Title
4.89 5.39 4.52 9.00
5.49 5.54 6.06 8.00
5.69 5.69 6.50 7.00
6.22 5.84 5.44 6.00
6.21 5.98 5.01 5.00
6.22 6.13 6.70
4.00
6.47 6.28 7.18
3.00
6.44 6.42 5.99
2.00
6.68 6.57 5.50
6.86 6.72 7.35 1.00

6.82 6.87 7.85 0.00

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
6.76 7.01 6.54 2014 2015 2016 2017
7.04 7.16 6.00
7.32 7.31 7.99
7.35 7.45 8.52
7.60 7.09
7.75 6.49
7.90 8.63
SUMMARY OUTPUT 8.04 9.19

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.959579
R Square 0.920791
Adjusted R 0.915133
Standard E 0.212671
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 7.360933 7.360933 162.7479 4.25E-09
Residual 14 0.633207 0.045229
Total 15 7.994139

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5.09961 0.111526 45.72586 1.21E-16 4.860411 5.338809 4.860411 5.338809
X Variable 0.147139 0.011534 12.75727 4.25E-09 0.122401 0.171876 0.122401 0.171876
 quarter SI
1 0.93
2 0.84
3 1.09
Chart Title 4 1.14

4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2016 2017
 Yt/st
year sales ma cma seasonal irregularity seasonal index deseasonalize
1 230 Yt/cma 0.99 231.19
2 220 225 217.5 1.011494 0.99 222.08
3 200 210 215 0.930233 0.99 201.03
4 240 220 227.5 1.054945 0.99 242.27
5 230 235 240 0.958333 0.99 231.19
6 260 245 262.5 0.990476 0.99 262.46
7 300 280 275 1.090909 0.99 301.55
8 240 270 265 0.90566 0.99 242.27
9 280 260 280 1 0.99 281.44
10 320 300 0.99 323.02
11 0.99

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Standard E
Observatio

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable
 Trend component Forecast
st*t year sales
208.65 207.58 1 0.994869
218.69 216.65 2 0.990644
228.74 227.56
238.78 236.55
248.83 247.55
258.87 256.45
268.92 267.54
278.96 276.35
289.00 287.52
299.05 296.25
309.09 307.51

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.800489
0.640783
0.595881
24.15137
10

df SS MS F Significance F
1 8323.914 8323.914 14.27067 0.005406
8 4666.308 583.2884
9 12990.22

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
198.6026 16.49852 12.0376 2.09E-06 160.5569 236.6483 160.5569 236.6483
10.0447 2.658978 3.777653 0.005406 3.913083 16.17631 3.913083 16.17631