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M&V – Quo Vadis ...?

Karel Steyn (CEM, CMVP)


Chair: Measurement and Verification Council of South Africa

SAEEC M&V Workshop


20 June 2019
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Presentation outline

AMV

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Agenda Presentation outline

• Why M&V?
• Range of existing M&V Methods
• Uncertainty
• Improving Uncertainty
• Future of M&V
– Existing
– Other
• Summary

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Why M&V? Presentation outline

Credible reporting of actual energy or water


savings achieved due to an intervention…

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Range of M&V Methods inoutline
Presentation Use Today

Many more exist…


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The Range ofPresentation
M&V can be outline
further split…

Level of Accuracy &


Measurement equipment Certainty Required
requirements
Level of M&V
Measurements Costs Allowed
Complex & P.C. /
Detailed measures,
Solution/Boundary/Measure

Non-Standard CDM
Research, modelling, simulations

Simulations

Standardised S.O.P
Modelling

Narrow ESCo Simple


Research/Measures

Expert Calc’s /
Simple / S.P.P Estimation
Small
Guess # of inter-
Small Medium Large Very Large
active effects
Project Size (Savings) & Complexity

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The Range ofPresentation
M&V can even be further split…
outline
• Deemed / Stipulated Savings • Performance Against Fore-casting
• Engineering Calculation-based approach • Performance Against Back-casting
• Engineering approach (Ex-post combined with Ex- • Standard Conditions Methods (adjust reporting
ante Methods) period consumption with adjusted baseline-period
• Continuous Measurement approach consumption)
• Tiers Based approach (“fall-back”) • Energy Performance Indicators (EnPI)
• Combination of approaches • Simple measure (e.g. COP of a Chiller)
• Ex-post & Ex-ante Methods • Ratios (e.g. Energy of oil consumed per kg of
• Sales Average & Performance of the most chemical produced – Energy Intensity)
commonly used Equipment in the Market • Complex models (e.g. electr. Consumption of an
• Average Consumption of Installed Stork (retrofits) industrial enterprise as a function of x1 production
• Existing building stock characteristics ad x2 annual HDD)
• Top-down & Bottom-up approach • ISO, IPMVP, FEMP, ASHRAE, etc.
• Combined Bottom-up and Top-down approach • Specified M&V Protocol
• Benchmarking • Standardised M&V
• Sampling • etc.

Term “M&V” is often used but with no measurements performed…

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Uncertainty Presentation outline
With Reference to “Why the M&V?” Slide…
It should be acknowledged that full uncertainty quantification is difficult
and expensive.
Internationally, M&V usually (1)quantifies meter precision, (2)sampling
accuracy and (3)regression statistics precision, which are the three main
factors of uncertainties that can be quantified easily.

ASHRAE 17 was rejected in part due to its focus on uncertainties


quantification which often results in recommendations too complex to apply
on actual projects.” - World Bank

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Improving Uncertainty…
Presentation outline
Accept that uncertainty can never be fully addressed…
• Knowledge & skill
• Standards & guidance
• Improved wording in reporting
• Find and use more Independent Energy Governing Factors
• Increase sampling (measurement periods, points, etc.)
• Review or narrow the measurement boundary
• Use alternative M&V Options that is less affected by unknown variables, or, that
measures all parameters
• Remove or use less assumptions
• Increase data quality and availability
• Use tools to perform calculations
• Get and Use better and more data
• … But…, this all usually increase the cost of M&V!
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Future?

Consider the Primary M&V objectives:


Reduce overall project or programme risk
(savings is achieved?) and M&V cost to
acceptable levels…

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How to adapt to “Future M&V
Presentation objectives”?
outline

• Use that already tried, tested and found to be acceptable, e.g.


– deemed savings (stated or engineering calculations),
– standardised M&V (M&V plans, processes, spreadsheets, calculations, etc,)

• Use technologies, approaches and methods aligned to the new world of work:
– G5,
– Artificial Intelligence(AI),
– Digitisation, Big Data, Data Science, Data Analytics,
– The Internet of Things(IoT),
– Huge amounts of sensors of all types,
– Huge amounts and types of data availability,
– Automation & Improved data sources, Data Availability, etc.,
– Increased resources are often all Open Source,
– M&V 2,
– …
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G5… (6G?) Presentation outline
‘5G will be as revolutionary as electricity.’ - Qualcomm.

5G is:
• More than just a simple internet upgrade;
• Super-fast. As much as 1 000 times faster than 4G. (Enough to download a full season of
Game of Thrones in seconds).
• dramatically increasing the lifespan of battery-dependent devices, sometimes up to 10
years
• The foundation atop which all future breakthrough tech will be built. These include, but
are not limited to:
• Enabling IoT sensors Not only will our devices be as smart as us, they will be able
• Safe, self-driving cars. to share a brains worth of data seamlessly between each other.
• Delivery drones. It’s hard to imagine just how incredible that is — it is huge!
• Drones that can change bulbs in street lights.
• Tiny robots inside water pipes that can repair cracks before they become a hazard.
• Surgeons who can perform operations remotely on patients thousands of kilometres away in
another country.
• Enabling flying cars, or,
• Virtual reality, or,
• Any other wonderous inventions that will take us even further into the future,
• etc.

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Artificial Intelligence (AI)…outline
Presentation

Looking at the planned adoption and use of AI, a study found that SA,
together with the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, was one of the top three
countries in the region investing in AI in the past decade worth $1.6bn.

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Digitisation, Big Data, Data Science, Data
Analytics… Presentation outline
Definition: a multi-disciplinary field that uses
scientific methods, processes, algorithms
and systems to extract knowledge and
insights from structured and unstructured
data.

 Supervised learning
(classification – regression)
 Clustering
 Dimensionality reduction
 Structured prediction
 Anomaly prediction
 Artificial neural networks
 Reinforcement learning
 Theory application

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Internet of Things (IoT)… outline
Presentation
The Internet of things (IoT) is the extension of Internet
connectivity into physical devices and everyday objects.
Embedded with electronics, Internet connectivity, and other
forms of hardware, these devices can communicate and interact
with others over the Internet, and they can be remotely
monitored and controlled. Wikipedia

Source: www.quora.com

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What is possible…
Presentation outline
Consider a Real Smart-Grid:
(1) Increased use of digital information and controls technology to improve reliability,
security, and efficiency of the electric grid.
(2) Enabling grid ’self-healing’ opportunities.
(3) Dynamic optimisation of grid operations and resources, with full cyber-security.
(4) Deployment and integration of distributed resources and generation, including renewable
resources.
(5) Development and incorporation of demand response, demand-side resources, and
energy-efficiency resources.
(6) Deployment of 'smart' technologies (real-time, automated, interactive technologies that
optimise the physical operation of appliances and consumer devices) for metering,
communications concerning grid operations and status, and distribution automation.
Could all this (7) Integration of 'smart' appliances and consumer devices.
not be useful to (8) Deployment and integration of advanced electricity storage and peak-shaving
technologies, including plug-in electric and hybrid electric vehicles, and thermal storage
perform
air conditioning.
credible M&V?
(9) Provision to consumers of timely information and control options.
(10) Communication and interoperability of appliances and equipment connected to the
electric grid, including the infrastructure serving the grid.

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… outline
Improved energy efficiency valuation methods and
models through real-time analytics:
Advanced measurement and verification (M&V) of energy efficiency
savings, often referred to as M&V 2.0 or advanced M&V, is currently
an object of much industry attention. Thus far, however, there has
been a lack of clarity about what techniques M&V 2.0 includes, how
those techniques differ from traditional approaches,
what the key considerations
are for their use, and what
value propositions M&V 2.0
presents to different
stakeholders.

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (2) outline
• ISO 17 020 (SANAS) with certain provisions allow for M&V tools to
be used, i.e. M&V 2.0

• Key features of M&V 2.0:


(1) Automated analytics that can provide ongoing, near-real-time savings
estimates, and
(2) Increased data granularity in terms of frequency, volume, or end-use detail.

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (3) outline

Key features of M&V 2.0:


(1) Granularity
New information and communications technologies
(ICTs) providing hourly (or even more granular)
energy usage data are enabling the reporting of
energy use in facilities in near-real time. The increasing prevalence of
ICTs—including (but not limited to) high-resolution smart meters,
communicating smart thermostats, and nonintrusive load-sub-metering
devices—combined with rapidly falling metering prices are changing
the way energy efficiency projects and programs are measured.
Availability of hourly data allows more granular analytic approaches
that can estimate impacts by time of day.

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (4) outline
Key features of M&V 2.0:
(2) Automated Analysis
• Emerging, often cloud-based, software can use improved data
access and advanced analytics to automate and accelerate the
M&V process. These tools are advancing M&V by enabling ongoing
monitoring and estimating of energy savings in near-real time,
both for individual premises and for portfolios of facilities.
• Together with higher resolution data and multi-parameter models,
these methods can capture the impact of efficiency on facility load
shape more accurately. These approaches are intended to be
conducted more quickly, more accurately, at lower cost, and with
greater value than non-automated methods.

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (5) outline

The two critical features of M&V 2.0—speed and granularity—have the


potential to provide a range of benefits for key stakeholders:
 Early & ongoing feedback for corrective actions (if required)
 Increased customer /portfolio details
 Near Real Time savings reporting
 Early opportunity to adjust targets
 Lesson performance risks involved
 Simplicity with less M&V skill and knowledge involved
 Reduce M&V cost
 Improved reporting accuracy and credibility of results
 Improved operations because operators can monitor , track and make changes
near real-time
 M&V 2.0 tools may ultimately evolve to estimate a variety of baselines, including
standard-practice code baselines, and the outputs may be adjusted to account
for standard-practice baselines.

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (6) outline

Limitations of M&V 2.0:


 M&V 2.0 offerings focus on existing conditions baselines and, as such, are not
universally applicable as a basis for all types of program savings
 There are limits to what can be derived from whole-facility data, particularly in
the nonresidential space – requiring more metering to be installed (a challenge
for normal M&V as well)
 Data access and quality are critical elements of realizing the benefits of M&V 2.0
(in many respects still a challenge)
 Stakeholder-specific challenges associated with privacy and ownership,
measurement accuracy, and IT infrastructure must be overcome for the full
benefit of M&V 2.0 to be realised
 Although automation suggests the potential for efficiency and cost savings, the
impacts resulting from automation must be demonstrated in real-world
applications
 Data formats is a challenge with standardisation required to improve the
opportunities for M&V 2.0

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (7) outline

M&V 2.0 Tools & Offerings:


In the rapidly advancing market of energy analytics software
tools, new offerings are frequently becoming available, and
existing technologies are being improved.
o Today’s M&V 2.0 market is dominated by proprietary
tools that target commercial facilities using the Whole Facility
method and, in some cases, Calibrated Simulation Option.
o The industry is however moving quickly to accommodate expanded combinations of
the five distinguishing characteristics described in IPMVP.
o This has a huge potential for job creation in that:
1. It creates a need for resources to develop the tools and offerings, and,
2. Makes it easier to use lower skilled/qualified resources to use the tools and offerings
(perform M&V)

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (7) outline
GENERAL COMPARISON
M&V 1 – Monthly Data M&V 2 – Interval Data
• Mainly Linear regression • Advanced analytics
• 12 month / data points / year • 8 760 hourly points / year
o High uncertainty with moderate o 6-fold lower uncertainty with
savings moderate savings
 Example: 10% savings, 10%  Example: 10% savings, 10%
CV, 95% confidence CV, 95% confidence, high
 77% Uncertainty autocorrelation
• 12-month baseline & post  12% Uncertainty
implementation • Monitoring duration – can be much
shorter
o 3&6 month baseline
o 3&6 month post implementation
• Applicable to sub-system interval data

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AMV or M&VPresentation
2.0… (7) outline

M&V 2.0 Tools & Offerings:


In the rapidly advancing market of energy analytics software tools, new offerings are
frequently becoming available, and existing technologies are being improved.
o Today’s M&V 2.0 market is dominated by proprietary tools that target commercial
facilities using the Whole facility method and, in some cases, Calibrated Simulation
Option.
o The industry is however moving quickly to accommodate expanded combinations of
the five distinguishing characteristics described in IPMVP.
o This has a huge potential for job creation in that:
1. It creates a need for resources to develop the tools and offerings, and,
2. Makes it easier to use lower skilled/qualified resources to use the tools and offerings
(perform M&V)

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Total Pumping load [kW]

-
MWh/day

5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
00:30

0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
01:00

0
01:30
02:00
02:30
03:00
03:30

3
04:00

5,000
Projects
04:30
05:00
05:30
06:00
06:30
07:00

implementation).
10,000
07:30
08:00
08:30
09:00
09:30
10:00

15,000
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30

Hour
13:00

20,000
13:30

m^3/day
14:00

1
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00

25,000
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30

2
y = 0.0149x
R2 = 0.8994
19:00

30,000
19:30
20:00
20:30
21:00
21:30

Actual post-implementation profile for a weekday


22:00

35,000
22:30
23:00

Relationship between MWh/day and m 3/day (pre-


23:30
00:00

40,000

 0.97
SLA Factor 

5
498,350 kWh
482,100 kWh

Total Pumping load [kW]


kWh SL
kWh BL  WD

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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000

00:30
4
Consider a single weekday after DSM implementation

01:00
01:30
02:00
Total Pumping load [kW]
02:30
03:00
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000

03:30
04:00 00:30

04:30 01:00
01:30
05:00
02:00
05:30
02:30
06:00 03:00

Actual - Weekday [kW]


06:30 03:30
04:00
07:00
04:30
07:30
05:00
08:00 05:30
kWh(BL) = 498,350 kWh/day
Presentation outline

08:30 06:00
06:30
09:00
Baseline Electricity Consumption:

07:00
09:30
07:30
10:00 08:00
10:30 08:30

11:00 09:00
09:30
11:30
10:00
12:00 10:30
12:30 11:00
Hour

13:00 11:30
12:00
13:30
12:30
Hour

Baseline profile for a weekday

14:00
13:00
Baseline - Weekday [kW]

14:30 13:30

15:00 14:00
14:30
15:30
15:00
16:00
15:30
16:30 16:00

17:00 16:30
17:00
17:30
17:30
18:00
18:00
18:30 18:30

19:00 19:00
19:30
19:30
20:00
20:00
20:30
Example: SLA Combined Load Shift & Energy Efficiency

20:30 21:00
21:00 21:30

21:30 22:00
22:30
22:00
23:00
22:30 23:30
SLA Baseline - Weekday [kW]

23:00 00:00
SLA Baseline profile for a weekday

23:30
00:00
Future… Presentation outline

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Summary Presentation outline

• “You get what you measure and verify!” – Hence M&V stays the most important
aspect of energy and water management

• Simple, tried, tested, credible at a reasonable cost options already exist

• Technologies and data availability makes M&V less costly, quicker to perform and
more credible

• A market exist to develop AMV tools

• Potential exist to employ lower level skills and qualifications

• Potential exist that the current SANAS accreditation approach for M&V Bodies will
become unnecessary in the long term future. Provided:
– Stakeholders agree on the tool to be used for a project or programme

– Audit function to check that the inputs to a particular tool is correct

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Questions?

29
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Karel Steyn
Tel: (011) 800-3981
Email: karel.steyn@eskom.co.za

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