5 TRENDS ACTING ON CAPITAL

ALL
CHANGE

NOWNERSHIP

EXTRA TIME

C A P I TA L
G R AV I T Y
THE
AGE
OF
REINVENTION
EXTRA TIME
ECONOMIC CYCLES ARE EXTENDING…

2 27
American economic cycle Australian cycle

x the average
length of the previous 33 years +

OECD, Knight Frank

…BUT GROWTH IS LOWER

World Bank
INTEREST RATES ARE LOW…

18

16

14

12

10

1694 1729 1759 1780 1810 1845 1874 1903 1933 1962 1991 2019

Bank of England, Knight Frank

CENTRAL BANKS ARE DOVISH

Central Bank News

BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH

600

Referendum

500

400

300
Global

200
UK

100

0
Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Jan-17

Global

Source: Policy uncertainty, Knight Frank

IS A GLOBAL RECESSION ON THE WAY?

Recession 2.85
2.80
2.75
2.65
2.60
2.55
2.50
2.45
2.40
2.35
2.25
2.20

1M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y

Reuters
 “It’s far too early to
predict a recession.
But it’s not too early
to worry about one.”
Ian Stewart – Deloitte
STRATEGISE LOWER FOR LONGER

Story about
Liquidity New
city not Debt
focus sectors
country
CAPITAL GRAVITY
GLOBAL INVESTMENT VOLUMES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: Real Capital Analytics
WHAT IS HAPPENING FOR CAPITAL IN 2019?

Real Capital Analytics, Oxford Economics, Heritage, Knight Frank

ASIA PACIFIC CAPITAL FLOWS

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0 Outbound
0.0 Inbound
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0

Real Capital Analytics

THE AGE OF
REINVENTION
NOWNERSHIP
LIFELONG TENANT
ALL CHANGE
DATA REVOLUTION

% /
proptech into commercial real estate investors plan to
real estate invest 10-30% capital into
proptech

Real Estate Board of New York, RICS, Deloitte

CONCLUSION

EXTRA TIME

CAPITAL GRAVITY

REINVENTION

NOWNERSHIP

ALL CHANGE
CONCLUSION

EXTRA TIME CAPITAL GRAVITY REINVENTION NOWNERSHIP ALL CHANGE

• Late cycle? • CRE’s role • Revival of the • Space as a • Transparency

unloved service: not just rising
• Strategise for • Capital sources offices
recession • A local story • Data’s intrinsic
• What’s on the • Specialist value…
• Caution: risk PE Radar? sectors through
curve position the residential • …and challenges
• Retail: not dead life cycle
• A resource to
• Allocations: optimise returns
Industrial &
Specialist rising