Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 12

4QFY17 May 2017

India Strategy
BSE Sensex: 30,188 S&P CNX: 9,401

4QFY17 interim earnings review


In-line so far; margin contraction evident
 81 MOSL Universe companies and 24 Nifty companies have declared their 4QFY17
results as of Saturday, May 13, 2017.
 These companies comprise (a) 50% of estimated PAT for MOSL Universe and 52% of
estimated PAT for Nifty, and (c) 38% of Indian market cap.
Key takeaways
 The 4QFY17 earnings season so far has been in line with expectations in terms of
headline numbers. Of the 24 Nifty companies that have declared their results so far,
19 have reported earnings ahead of/in line with our estimates. The earnings
upgrade/downgrade ratio is skewed in favor of downgrades, with 11 MOSL Universe
companies seeing upgrades of 5%+ and 26 seeing downgrades of 5%+.
 The MOSL Universe has reported sales, EBITDA and PAT growth of 10.2%, 5% and
12.2% YoY, as against expectations of 11.2%, 2.7% and 10.4%, respectively.
 Sales/EBITDA/PAT for the 24 Nifty companies have grown 11.7%/1.6%/6.3% v/s
expectation of 12%/(0.9%)/2.2%.
 Almost three-fourths (that is, 56) of the 81 MOSL coverage companies have reported
EBITDA either in line with or above estimates. On the PAT front, 55 out of 81
companies either met or exceeded expectations. Ex-Financials, EBITDA margin
declined 200bp YoY to 21.5% v/s estimate of 21%.
Sales growth at 11-quarter high (%)  Based on the results of the 13 Sensex companies, we have raised our Sensex EPS
estimates marginally by 0.7%/0.6% for FY18/FY19 to INR1,583/1,915. Upgrades are
13 led largely by Bharti Airtel, Hero MotoCorp, Reliance while Infosys, TCS, Wipro and
10 ICICI Bank have seen earnings downgrades.
6 6 6 7
2 Five key trends from the results declared until May 13, 2017: [1] Volume growth has been
1
better than expected, as demonetization impact has faded. Discretionary Consumption
sectors (Jewelry, Paints, Consumer Electricals, Cement) have reported better than
-2 -3 expected volumes. [2] Sales growth at 10.2% YoY for the 81 MOSL Universe companies is
-5 at an 11-quarter high. [3] Barring Metals, other sectors have seen margin contraction. [4]
-7
Cement companies have surprised on both volume and cost front, and reported profits
June-14

June-15

June-16
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17

44% ahead of expectation. [5] After many quarters, NBFC profits missed our estimates.
Aggregate PAT grows 12% YoY, in line with our estimate
 Aggregate performance of MOSL Universe: Sales grew 10.2% YoY (our
Refer our Mar-17 estimate: +11.2%), EBITDA grew 5% YoY (our estimate: +2.7%), and PAT grew
Quarter Preview 12.2% YoY (our estimate: +10.4%).
 Six sectors missed PAT estimates – Capital Goods, PSU Banks, NBFCs,
Healthcare, Media, and Utilities.
 Six sectors reported PAT de-growth – NBFCs (-2%), Capital Goods (-1%),
Telecom (-59%), Utilities (-92%), and Others (-13%).
 Technology sector posted YoY flat PAT (our estimate: -4.9%).
 Nifty Universe performance: Sales grew 11.7% YoY (our estimate: +12%),
EBITDA grew 1.6% YoY (our estimate: -0.9%), and PAT grew 6.3% YoY (our
estimate: +2.2%).
 Top companies that beat estimates: ACC (182% beat), UltraTech (21%),
Axis Bank (47%), Kotak Bank (10%), RIL (8%), Bharti Airtel (20%).
 Top companies that missed estimates: Hero MotoCorp (8% miss), Bharti
Infratel (18%), ICICI Bank (12%), Zee (25%).

Gautam Duggad (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404


Investors
May 2017 are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

Exhibit 1: Nifty-50: Performance-expectation gap (PAT growth)


Actual YoY (%) Est YoY (%) KMB; Strong all-around HDFC; stable qtr, HCL Tech;
RIL; EBITDA beats est, performance. continued pick-up in Growth woes
Indusind and Yes Bank due to higher GRMs
Infosys; PAT above In-line qtr Maruti; In-line qtr non-retail loans catch up
est due to lower 9.7 9.5 9.7 9.2
translation losses 8.1 9.0 7.0 5.6
6.9 6.5 6.5 6.3
5.5 4.9 3.9 4.1
2.7 3.2 3.8
2.7 2.4 0.9
0.2 0.3 4.0
-1.8 -1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0
2.2
-3.2 -3.9
-4.9 ICICI Bk; Core Bharti Airtel; Better Hero; RM cost hurt
HDFCB; Stellar Axis; NIMs surprises,
profitability cost management in a margins. Zee;
TCS; Margin aspirations performance on Pool of stress loans
surprises positively tough operating Domestic ad growth
face a stern test all fronts. remain unchanged environment moderates

3-May

4-May

5-May

8-May

9-May
13-Apr

18-Apr

19-Apr

21-Apr

24-Apr

25-Apr

26-Apr

27-Apr

28-Apr

10-May

11-May

12-May
 Tweaking FY18/FY19 estimates marginally: Based on 4QFY17 results for the 81
companies, we marginally cut MOSL Universe PAT estimates for FY18 and FY19
by 1% each, as EBITDA estimates remain largely unchanged. For these 81
companies, we now expect 12%/18% PAT growth for FY18/19.
 We raise our FY18E EPS for 11 companies (5% upgrade) and cut our FY18E
EPS for 26 companies (5% downgrade).
 Top FY18E EPS upgrades: Dalmia Bharat (40%), Bharti Airtel (23%), MMFS
(18%), Indian Bank (11%), TVS Motor (10%), Federal Bank (10%).
 Top FY18E EPS downgrades: BHAFIN (24%), Arvind (24%), Tata Comm
(24%), Equitas (22%), Union Bank (20%), OBC (19%), Nestle (18%), IDFC
Bank (14%), Wipro(8%).
 Sensex estimates see marginal upgrade: Based on the results of the 12 Sensex
companies, we raise our Sensex EPS estimates for FY17/18/19 by
2%/0.7%/0.6% to INR1,336/1,583/1,915.
 Top FY18E Sensex EPS upgrades: Bharti Airtel (23%), Hero MotoCorp (7%),
RIL (7%).
 Top FY18E Sensex EPS downgrades: Wipro (-8%), Yes Bank (-7%), ICICI Bank
(-6%), and Zee (-5%).
 Key results lined up over the rest of the season: For the remaining 95
companies of our MOSL Universe, we expect sales to grow by 14.9% YoY,
EBITDA by 12.7% YoY, and PAT by 51.8% YoY. PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, and Metals
are expected to drive this performance. We expect the remaining Nifty
Universe companies to deliver sales growth of 12.2% YoY. EBITDA/PAT growth
of the remaining Nifty Universe is expected at 4.8%/20% YoY.
 Key results to watch for: SBI, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, ONGC, L&T (refer
Exhibit 27).

May 2017 2
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

Exhibit 2: Sector-wise 4QFY17 performance of MOSL Universe companies (INR b)


Results declared so far Results yet to be declared
Sector Sales EBITDA PAT Sales EBIDTA PAT
Var. Var. Var.
Mar Chg. Mar Chg. Mar Chg. No of Mar Chg. Mar Chg. % Mar Chg.
over over over
2017 % YoY 2017 % YoY 2017 % YoY Cos. 2017 % YoY 2017 YoY 2017 % YoY
(no of companies) Exp. % Exp. % Exp. %
Automobiles (6) 336 10.5 -0.8 49 3.0 -6.7 33 9.0 -2.5 8 1,066 -0.9 113 -27.6 39 -48.8
Capital Goods (3) 68 9.0 5.2 7 -6.2 -8.1 4 -1.3 -8.9 9 617 14.8 77 9.7 49 15.5
Cement (4) 144 6.2 3.7 25 -5.8 27.5 13 14.9 44.1 4 69 3.2 13 -9.5 6 -8.1
Consumer (8) 143 5.1 -2.8 30 4.2 -2.5 21 8.2 0.6 10 273 3.2 64 0.6 44 4.0
Financials (24) 443 15.0 4.3 379 13.6 4.4 139 55.5 -8.5 7 279 4.8 211 -7.4 35 LP
Banks - Private (11) 274 16.6 5.4 230 5.4 4.9 105 21.8 3.3 0
Banks - PSU (4) 78 12.1 2.0 72 51.1 5.7 -6 Loss PL 4 255 3.6 196 -8.7 27 LP
NBFC (9) 92 12.9 3.0 77 13.6 1.7 39 -1.6 -8.4 3 25 18.9 15 13.2 8 32.9
Healthcare (7) 90 2.2 -9.4 17 -2.1 -36.2 9 3.2 -39.9 11 290 6.0 70 1.4 42 -7.6
Logistics (0) 3 31 -0.5 5 23.1 3 13.7
Media (1) 15 0.4 -0.3 5 14.0 2.1 3 28.4 -24.8 7 38 2.8 12 4.7 4 -54.1
Metals (1) 63 99.9 2.5 37 186.5 4.6 31 42.2 5.3 8 1,261 25.3 219 95.9 62 443.1
Oil & Gas (2) 735 31.2 -3.9 119 6.5 5.3 86 14.1 8.9 9 2,600 26.0 275 42.5 140 28.5
Excl. OMCs 6 531 32.4 154 59.3 74 33.0
Retail (1) 34 43.4 14.2 3 30.3 2.0 2 8.6 18.2 1 7 8.3 1 -9.2 0 -26.0
Technology (13) 811 5.2 -0.1 195 2.7 0.1 150 -0.1 4.9 2 90 7.7 14 0.5 9 -11.7
Telecom (4) 379 -11.4 -1.1 121 -19.1 4.4 11 -59.4 168.8 0
Utilities (1) 19 -30.6 -5.5 6 -48.4 -10.1 0 -92.1 -16.6 4 476 3.5 160 1.6 83 -3.9
Others (6) 102 2.2 -8.4 19 -7.9 11.5 7 -12.6 49.4 12 53 7.9 11 6.7 7 4.8
MOSL Universe (81) 3,382 10.2 -0.8 1,011 5.0 2.2 511 12.2 1.7 95 7,149 14.9 1,244 12.7 524 51.8
Ex Metals, Oil & PSU Bks (74) 2,506 4.1 -0.1 783 -1.0 1.3 400 1.2 3.2 74 3,035 4.4 554 -5.2 295 -11.8
Sensex (13) 2,052 11.8 -0.5 593 -1.2 1.6 337 4.4 4.4 17 2,996 6.7 699 2.7 295 2.8
Nifty (24) 2,431 11.7 -0.3 725 1.6 2.5 417 6.3 4.0 26 5,136 12.2 898 4.8 391 20.1

MOSL Universe 4QFY17 aggregate performance of companies that have declared results
Exhibit 3: Sales growth at 11-quarter high (%) Exhibit 4: PAT grew 12% YoY (v/s estimate of 10% YoY)
17
13 14 13 19
16 17 17 16 17
18
16
10 13
7 6 6 11 11 10 12
6 6 7 7 6
1 2
3

-2 -3
-7 -5 -5
June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17

June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17

Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin (ex Financials) contracted 200bp to


Exhibit 5: EBITDA growth in-line at 5% YoY 21.5% (v/s estimate of 21%)

19 22.3 21.5
18 17 18 17 21.5 21.7 23.5
16 16 15 16.8 16.7 17.0 18.5 20.7 23.0 22.1
13 13 14 16.7 22.4
12 12 13 17.5 17.4
11 16.6
8
5
June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17

June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

May 2017 3
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

Sectoral EBITDA margins


Exhibit 7: MOSL Universe – Broad-based margin contraction (%)

Mar-16 (Actual) Mar-17 (Actual)


59.9

41.8 42.4
35.0 32.0 31.5
21.1 20.9 24.6 24.1
15.5 14.5 19.8 17.6 19.2 18.4 19.9 16.2
11.6 10.0

Healthcare

Utilities
Telecom
Metals
Consumer

Technology
Auto

Cement
Cap Goods

Oil & Gas


Source: Company, MOSL

Nifty 4QFY17 aggregate performance in-line (24 companies)


 Sales grew by 11.7% YoY (our estimate: +12%), EBITDA by 1.6% (our estimate:
-0.9%), and PAT by 6.3% (our estimate: +2.2%). Excluding Telecom, Nifty PAT
growth was 8.8% (our estimate: +4.5%).
 Of the 24 Nifty companies that have declared results, nine have surpassed
expectations, while five have missed our expectations.

Nifty Universe – aggregate performance of companies that have declared 4QFY17 results
Exhibit 8: 4QFY17 performance of Nifty companies that have declared results so far (INR b); PAT growth healthy at 6.3% YoY
Sales EBITDA PAT
Mar Chg. % Chg. % Var. over Mar Chg. % Chg. % Var. over Mar Chg. % Chg. % Var. over
Company 2017 QoQ YoY Exp. (%) 2017 QoQ YoY Exp. (%) 2017 QoQ YoY Exp. (%)
ACC 31 17.7 7.9 0.3 3 53.2 -9.4 57.4 2 71.5 -9.9 182.3
Ambuja Cements 25 15.3 5.3 -1.0 4 23.9 -14.2 13.5 2 43.6 423.7 16.2
Asian Paints 40 0.4 7.8 3.5 7 -8.3 2.1 -0.6 5 2.9 10.1 -1.9
Axis Bank 47 9.1 3.9 3.9 44 -5.7 -0.5 -3.4 12 111.4 -43.1 46.9
Bharti Airtel 219 -6.0 -12.1 -1.4 79 -7.3 -13.7 3.2 8 41.0 -45.5 20.3
Bharti Infratel 35 3.5 10.6 0.5 16 6.2 8.5 3.1 6 -3.8 -17.0 -17.5
Dr Reddy’ s Labs 36 -4.1 -5.4 -5.4 6 -31.6 -29.3 -31.9 3 -33.5 -16.9 -32.8
Eicher Motors 19 2.9 23.2 -0.6 6 1.3 30.9 -7.3 5 9.9 33.9 -0.9
HCL Technologies 121 2.0 12.7 0.0 26 0.8 11.3 0.4 20 -2.2 5.2 2.8
HDFC 29 10.8 15.5 0.0 28 14.2 13.9 2.2 20 20.2 5.3 2.9
HDFC Bank 91 9.0 21.5 6.3 73 10.1 26.9 9.5 40 3.2 18.3 2.4
Hero Motocorp 69 8.7 -7.9 1.0 10 -11.4 -19.3 -14.5 7 -7.0 -13.9 -7.8
ICICI Bank 60 11.2 10.3 9.7 51 -7.5 -28.1 1.3 20 -17.1 188.5 -11.7
Indiabulls Housing 12 25.1 14.7 4.9 10 -3.6 9.0 -15.9 8 11.8 24.4 -1.1
IndusInd Bank 17 5.6 31.5 2.9 16 15.3 36.6 15.2 8 0.1 21.2 -1.3
Infosys 171 -0.9 3.4 -0.7 47 -2.3 0.4 -0.4 36 -2.8 0.2 5.3
Kotak Mahindra Bank 22 5.4 16.4 2.9 17 11.4 42.5 11.2 10 11.0 40.3 10.0
Maruti Suzuki 183 8.7 20.3 -1.6 27 7.6 15.0 -1.5 18 3.0 21.8 -1.4
Reliance Inds. 671 8.6 34.4 -2.3 113 6.4 5.2 5.7 82 1.6 11.4 8.4
TCS 296 -0.3 4.2 -1.2 81 -1.2 2.9 -0.7 66 -2.5 4.2 6.6
Ultratech Cement 66 17.6 3.0 3.2 13 14.8 -7.2 20.6 7 23.8 -10.7 21.6
Wipro 140 2.2 2.6 2.7 28 -0.1 -0.7 2.5 19 -8.3 -13.5 1.9
Yes Bank 16 10.1 32.1 2.8 17 16.3 38.0 13.7 9 3.6 30.2 -0.1
Zee Entertainment 15 -6.8 0.4 -0.3 5 -9.1 14.0 2.1 3 15.9 28.4 -24.8
Nifty Universe 2,431 4.5 11.7 -0.3 725 1.3 1.6 2.5 417 2.4 6.3 4.0
Note: LP: Loss to Profit; PL: Profit to Loss Source: Company, MOSL

May 2017 4
13
6
Mar-13 Mar-13

May 2017
17
4
June-13 June-13

21
Sep-13
17
Sep-13

19
Dec-13 Dec-13

21
Mar-14 Mar-14

surpassed our

five have missed


15
June-14
13 14 13

June-14

expectations, while
Nine companies have
3

12
Sep-14 Sep-14

10
-4
Dec-14 Dec-14

12
Mar-15 Mar-15

-12
June-15 June-15 -7

15 15
-9
Ambuja Cem Sep-15 Sep-15

424
ACC
-4

19
ICICI Bk Dec-15 Dec-15

182 47
188
Axis Bank
6

17
Ultratech Kotak Mah Bk Mar-16 Mar-16
1

14
Bharti Airtel Eicher Mot June-16 June-16
7

11
Sep-16 Sep-16

22 20 16
Ambuja Cem Yes Bank

7
7

Kotak Mah Bk Zee Ent Dec-16 Dec-16


Exhibit 9: Nifty Sales grew 12% YoY, in line with estimate

2
12

Reliance Ind. Indiabulls Hsg Mar-17 Mar-17


Exhibit 11: Nifty EBITDA growth of 2% (v/s est of -0.9% YoY)

Source: Company, MOSL


TCS Maruti Suzuki

40 34 30 28 24 22 21
Infosys IndusInd
Mar-13
16.7

Mar-13
Nifty HDFC Bk
June-13
16.6
June-13
HDFC Reliance Ind. Sep-13
17 17 18

Sep-13
HCL Tech Asian Paints Dec-13 Dec-13

18 11 10 6

10 8 7 5 4 3 3 2
HDFC Bk Nifty Mar-14 Mar-14

2
5
Wipro HDFC June-14
21 21 20

16.5 17.1

June-14

5
Yes Bank HCL Tech Sep-14
18

16.3 17.7 17.4

Sep-14

4
Eicher Mot TCS Dec-14
18.4

Dec-14

0
Indiabulls Hsg Infosys Mar-15
12 11

22.1

Mar-15
IndusInd ACC
9

June-15
21.2

Exhibit 14: Nifty companies PAT: Actual v/s estimate variance (%)
June-15
Maruti Suzuki Ultratech Sep-15
22.6
14

Sep-15
Asian Paints Wipro Dec-15
23.0
15

Dec-15

0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -8
Hero Moto Hero Moto Mar-16
5

24.5

Mar-16
Exhibit 13: Nifty companies PAT YoY change (%): Private Banks lead the pack

ICICI Bk Dr Reddy’s June-16


24.0
12

June-16
Bharti Infratel Bharti Infratel -10 -11 -13 -14 -17 -17 Sep-16
9

Sep-16
Zee Ent

-12 -17 -25


Axis Bank Dec-16
2

22.8

Dec-16
Exhibit 10: Nifty PAT grew 6.3% YoY (v/s est of 2.2% YoY)

Dr Reddy’s
Exhibit 12: Nifty EBITDA margin (ex Financials) down 250bp YoY

Bharti Airtel
-43 -46

Mar-17
6

-33
Mar-17
23.3 22.0

5
Source: Company, MOSL

Source: Company, MOSL


India Strategy | Review 4QFY17
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

Tweaking MOSL FY18/FY19 estimates marginally


 Based on 4QFY17 results for the 81 companies, we marginally cut FY18 and
FY19 MOSL Universe PAT estimates by 1% each, as EBITDA estimates remain
largely unchanged.
 For these 81 companies, we now expect 12%/18% PAT growth for FY18/19. We
raise our FY18E EPS for 11 companies (5% upgrade) and cut our FY18E EPS for
26 companies (5% downgrade).
Exhibit 15: FY18E aggregate sales Exhibit 16: FY18E EBITDA growth Exhibit 17: FY18E PAT revised down
growth marginally reduced estimated at 7.7% by 1%
Preview Post results Preview Post results Preview Post results

19.3 19.0 17.6 17.6


13.6 14.4 14.7
9.8 12.2 11.5
11.2 12.1 12.8 10.4
10.2 7.7
5.0
2.7

FY18E

FY19E
4QFY17
FY18E

FY19E
4QFY17

FY18E

FY19E
4QFY17

Source: Company, MOSL

Nifty stocks—upgrades and downgrades


 Top FY18E Sensex EPS upgrades: Bharti Airtel (23%), Hero MotorCorp (7%), RIL
(7%).
 Top FY18E Sensex EPS downgrades: Wipro (-8%), Yes Bank (-7%), ICICI Bank
(-6%) and Zee (-5%).

Exhibit 18: Nifty Universe – 7 upgrades of over 2% v/s 11 downgrades of over 2%


EPS (INR) % Upgrd./Downgrd EPS gr. YoY (%)
Earnings Company FY17 FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
upgrade/downgrade Bharti Airtel 11.1 6.3 11.5 23.4 21.5 -43.4 82.4
ratio is skewed in Hero Motocorp 169.1 198.1 201.2 7.0 6.9 17.1 1.6
favor of downgrades Reliance Inds. 106.6 121.7 127.8 6.8 3.7 14.2 5.0
ACC 33.7 49.2 63.6 5.4 8.4 45.8 29.2
Bharti Infratel 14.9 17.5 19.9 4.4 0.2 17.7 14.0
Eicher Motors 613.8 892.0 1135.1 4.4 8.4 45.3 27.3
Asian Paints 21.0 23.1 27.4 2.4 2.9 10.0 18.6
IndusInd Bank 50.1 59.4 72.0 1.3 1.2 18.6 21.2
Ultratech Cement 96.1 121.4 159.1 0.8 4.9 26.3 31.1
HDFC Bank 56.8 67.1 79.4 0.6 0.5 18.2 18.3
Kotak Mahindra Bank 26.8 32.3 40.5 0.0 -1.8 20.3 25.5
Ambuja Cements 4.9 6.6 7.2 -1.3 0.1 35.7 8.6
Axis Bank 15.4 23.4 41.2 -1.7 1.5 52.6 75.6
HDFC 46.8 50.7 55.9 -2.1 -2.4 8.1 10.4
Maruti Suzuki 248.6 300.0 370.9 -2.5 -0.9 20.6 23.6
Indiabulls Housing 69.0 82.2 101.6 -2.6 -1.1 19.2 23.5
Infosys 62.9 64.7 71.1 -2.9 -3.0 2.7 10.0
Dr Reddy’ s Labs 72.6 107.1 144.5 -3.4 -1.8 47.5 35.0
TCS 133.4 139.7 149.6 -3.4 -3.3 4.7 7.0
HCL Technologies 59.8 61.9 67.6 -3.8 -3.8 3.3 9.3
Zee Entertainment 23.1 16.4 19.5 -5.4 -5.6 -29.2 18.9
ICICI Bank 16.8 16.8 19.2 -5.6 -6.0 0.0 14.3
Yes Bank 73.0 90.5 114.0 -6.7 -3.7 24.1 25.9
Wipro 33.8 34.6 38.2 -7.6 -10.9 2.3 10.3
Source: Company, MOSL

May 2017 6
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

For the remaining universe, we expect aggregate PAT to increase by 52%


 Key results lined up over the rest of the season: For the remaining 95
companies of our MOSL Universe, we expect sales to grow by 14.9% YoY,
EBITDA by 12.7%, and PAT by 51.8% YoY. PSU Banks, Oil & Gas and Metals are
expected to drive this performance. We expect the remaining Nifty Universe
companies to deliver sales growth of 12.2% YoY. EBITDA/PAT growth of the
remaining Nifty Universe is expected at 4.8%/20% YoY. Key results to watch for:
SBI, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, ONGC, L&T (refer Exhibit 27).

MOSL Universe – expected aggregate performance of companies yet to declare 4QFY17 results

Exhibit 20: PAT growth to be driven by PSU Banks, O&G and


Exhibit 19: Sales growth to come in at 15% Metals

15 15 657
10 11 10
8 7 9
4 50 51 52
1
5 20
-2 -2 -4
-8 -9 -10 0 -5 -20 -3
-9 -8 -16 -13 -32
-13 -23 -26
June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16

June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16

Mar-13

Dec-13
Mar-14

Dec-15
Mar-17E

Sep-13

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17E
Exhibit 22: EBITDA margin (ex Financials) to expand 30bp
Exhibit 21: EBITDA to post 13% growth YoY
71
17.4 15.0
17.4
15.6 14.7 15.0
15.6
12.1 13.2 14.6 14.4
13.4 11.7 13.1
28
23 27 12.511.7
14
7 9 13 11.4
3 2 0 0 0

-2 -3
-15 -11
June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17E
Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16
Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16
Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Mar-17E
June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Aggregate 4QFY17E performance of Nifty companies yet to declare results


 We expect the remaining Nifty Universe to deliver sales growth of 12% YoY.
EBITDA and PAT growth for the remaining Nifty Universe is estimated at 5% and
20% YoY, respectively.
 We expect strong performance from BOB, SBI, IOC, ONGC, GAIL and Power Grid.

May 2017 7
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

Exhibit 23: Sales growth of 12% expected for remaining


Nifty universe, highest in 12 quarters (%) Exhibit 24: EBITDA growth expected at 5%
16 100
12 12 13 12
9 32
4 5 5
16
9 9 11 11 3 7 14
2 4 5
-1 -2 0
-4
-8 -8 -8 -1 -3 -3
-12 -13
June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16

June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16

Mar-13

Dec-14
Mar-17E

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17E
Exhibit 25: Expect PAT growth of 20% for rest of the Nifty Exhibit 26: EBITDA margin (ex Financials) expected to
universe contract by 40bp YoY
5,978 18.4
17.0
16.0
16.7
15.1 15.7 15.3
13.7 13.6 15.0
49 12.4 14.7 15.4
11.6 12.5 12.7
11.8
14 8
24 20
7

-3 -2
-4 -3 -8 -22 -4
-20 -24 -14
June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17E

June-13

June-14

June-15

June-16
Mar-13

Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14

Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15

Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16

Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 27: 4QFY17E aggregate performance of Nifty companies yet to declare results (INR b)
Sales EBITDA PAT
Company Mar-17 Chg. % QoQ Chg. % YoY Mar-17 Chg. % QoQ Chg. % YoY Mar-17 Chg. % QoQ Chg. % YoY
Adani Ports 20 -12.6 0.3 13 -6.4 4.7 2 -72.9 -74.8
Aurobindo Pharma 37 -4.6 -0.5 9 -3.0 -1.6 6 -1.1 -0.1
Bajaj Auto 49 -3.1 -8.4 10 -3.4 -12.6 8 -9.0 -11.3
Bank of Baroda 34 9.9 3.4 22 -14.3 -13.5 5 101.5 LP
Bosch 28 4.4 13.1 6 133.2 12.9 4 99.8 -9.1
BPCL 564 5.4 27.8 22 -33.4 -34.8 15 -34.4 -43.0
Cipla 38 4.4 16.5 7 6.1 62.7 4 -2.3 20.4
Coal India 222 12.9 7.1 35 11.7 -28.2 33 15.3 -21.6
GAIL 155 28.4 33.7 18 7.8 64.0 11 12.5 43.6
Grasim Industries 24 -3.9 -4.3 5 -5.6 12.4 2 -24.8 19.5
Hind. Unilever 81 4.7 4.5 15 7.5 -0.9 11 19.9 -1.0
Hindalco 281 14.3 14.3 33 11.5 6.7 11 50.7 7.5
IOC 988 6.6 23.4 78 4.4 115.6 41 1.4 227.8
ITC 99 6.8 1.3 36 1.6 -0.1 26 -2.6 8.4
Larsen & Toubro 370 40.8 11.7 44 75.1 -9.1 24 146.8 -0.2
Lupin 45 1.2 8.7 11 -6.2 -12.6 6 0.2 -15.2
M&M 102 -3.9 0.1 12 -16.6 -4.7 6 -21.2 -4.8
NTPC 166 -14.1 -7.9 56 9.0 5.1 25 9.2 -4.3
ONGC 218 9.6 35.4 114 11.1 91.5 51 16.8 85.1
Power Grid Corp. 72 11.0 25.4 64 10.2 26.1 23 18.4 42.9
State Bank 151 2.5 -1.1 119 -4.8 -15.8 22 -14.5 76.5
Sun Pharma 78 -1.3 2.3 25 1.2 -1.5 15 -0.7 -14.7
Tata Motors 790 17.0 -2.1 71 38.4 -37.3 12 362.6 -74.4
Tata Power 108 61.3 15.5 12 -11.2 -33.4 5 -10.8 167.6
Tata Steel 339 21.3 15.0 47 31.5 111.0 16 676.5 LP
Tech Mahindra 75 -0.2 9.5 12 -2.2 0.8 7 -14.7 -14.9
Nity Yet to declare 5,136 11.1 12.2 898 7.4 4.8 391 12.4 20.1
Note: LP: Loss to Profit; PL: Profit to Loss; Read EBITDA as Operating Profit for Banks Source: Company, MOSL

May 2017 8
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

Annexure: 4QFY17 performance of companies that have announced results


INR Million Sales EBITDA PAT
QoQ YoY Var QoQ YoY Var QoQ YoY Var
Company Mar 17 Chg (%) Chg (%) (%) Mar 17 Chg (%) Chg (%) (%) Mar 17 Chg (%) Chg (%) (%)
Automobiles 335,860 7.2 10.5 -0.8 48,561 0.4 3.0 -6.7 33,459 1.3 9.0 -2.5
CEAT 16,413 5.4 5.0 -0.7 1,325 -13.7 -29.0 -11.0 798 -4.8 -24.8 2.6
Eicher Motors 18,881 2.9 23.2 -0.6 5,848 1.3 30.9 -7.3 4,594 9.9 33.9 -0.9
Exide Inds. 19,636 13.8 11.3 -1.3 2,618 14.0 -1.7 -12.9 1,648 8.8 -6.0 -11.0
Hero Motocorp 69,152 8.7 -7.9 1.0 10,369 -11.4 -19.3 -14.5 7,178 -7.0 -13.9 -7.8
Maruti Suzuki 183,334 8.7 20.3 -1.6 26,787 7.6 15.0 -1.5 17,974 3.0 21.8 -1.4
TVS Motor 28,445 -4.7 1.7 0.4 1,615 -26.1 -19.2 -14.8 1,268 -4.4 -6.8 24.5
Capital Goods 68,079 8.2 9.0 5.2 6,797 -3.8 -6.2 -8.1 4,390 4.5 -1.3 -8.9
ABB 21,689 -13.0 8.3 -1.7 1,715 -39.2 -5.2 -19.5 884 -39.8 -5.3 -12.8
Havells India 17,102 13.6 17.2 7.6 2,296 20.4 3.5 26.2 1,715 51.0 5.0 36.7
Siemens 29,288 27.7 5.2 9.5 2,786 19.2 -13.4 -19.2 1,791 12.0 -4.8 -29.8
Cement 144,134 18.3 6.2 3.7 25,367 23.6 -5.8 27.5 13,292 48.7 14.9 44.1
ACC 30,997 17.7 7.9 0.3 3,418 53.2 -9.4 57.4 2,115 71.5 -9.9 182.3
Ambuja Cements 25,334 15.3 5.3 -1.0 3,651 23.9 -14.2 13.5 2,465 43.6 423.7 16.2
Dalmia Bharat 21,850 25.6 15.6 18.0 5,517 31.0 7.8 41.3 1,736 386.3 83.2 182.8
Ultratech Cement 65,953 17.6 3.0 3.2 12,782 14.8 -7.2 20.6 6,976 23.8 -10.7 21.6
Consumer 142,919 1.5 5.1 -2.8 29,833 1.8 4.2 -2.5 21,000 2.4 8.2 0.6
Asian Paints 39,525 0.4 7.8 3.5 7,119 -8.3 2.1 -0.6 4,796 2.9 10.1 -1.9
Dabur 19,147 3.6 -4.7 -5.4 4,176 27.1 0.6 2.0 3,331 13.4 0.5 -2.2
Emami 5,777 -20.4 -4.4 -2.1 1,781 -31.1 -4.7 -0.3 1,456 -28.8 -6.6 46.8
Godrej Consumer 23,805 -0.5 11.8 -2.6 5,414 6.9 19.5 7.4 3,827 9.7 21.4 12.5
GSK Consumer 11,019 28.1 2.3 -2.3 2,171 29.4 1.5 -10.4 1,759 28.9 8.4 5.6
Marico 13,152 -7.0 2.2 -2.2 2,525 -6.4 20.1 17.7 1,709 -10.8 25.5 18.2
Nestle 24,757 9.5 8.7 -10.1 5,110 29.9 -7.5 -22.9 3,126 20.5 1.8 -24.1
P&G Hygiene 5,739 -10.8 5.5 -3.2 1,538 -32.7 15.3 15.2 996 -33.9 2.6 5.2
Financials 443,440 10.0 15.0 4.3 378,666 6.3 13.6 4.4 138,620 -4.9 55.5 -8.5
Banks - Private 273,527 8.6 16.6 5.4 229,854 2.1 5.4 4.9 105,045 4.8 21.8 3.3
Axis Bank 47,286 9.1 3.9 3.9 43,747 -5.7 -0.5 -3.4 12,251 111.4 -43.1 46.9
DCB Bank 2,203 5.1 30.6 5.1 1,153 5.6 18.9 -2.6 529 3.0 -24.0 -3.9
Equitas Holdings 2,214 -3.3 29.9 -7.0 474 -54.6 -45.8 -47.2 69 -84.7 -85.3 -82.1
Federal Bank 8,424 6.4 22.8 4.7 5,492 15.6 39.2 27.0 2,566 24.8 2400.9 39.9
HDFC Bank 90,551 9.0 21.5 6.3 72,794 10.1 26.9 9.5 39,901 3.2 18.3 2.4
ICICI Bank 59,622 11.2 10.3 9.7 51,120 -7.5 -28.1 1.3 20,246 -17.1 188.5 -11.7
IDFC Bank 5,021 -3.6 20.5 -4.6 2,602 -45.3 0.2 -35.9 1,760 -8.0 6.6 11.7
IndusInd Bank 16,675 5.6 31.5 2.9 15,722 15.3 36.6 15.2 7,516 0.1 21.2 -1.3
Kotak Mahindra Bank 21,614 5.4 16.4 2.9 17,020 11.4 42.5 11.2 9,765 11.0 40.3 10.0
RBL Bank 3,522 9.5 46.6 1.9 2,818 19.8 75.2 8.0 1,301 1.1 54.6 -10.0
Yes Bank 16,397 10.1 32.1 2.8 16,910 16.3 38.0 13.7 9,141 3.6 30.2 -0.1
Banks - PSU 77,874 13.2 12.1 2.0 71,943 17.3 51.1 5.7 -5,759 PL Loss PL
Canara Bank 27,082 12.2 14.1 1.5 29,729 50.0 80.6 5.4 2,142 -33.5 LP -53.3
Indian Bank 13,849 11.1 22.1 2.3 10,701 4.8 29.3 11.1 3,197 -14.4 278.4 49.5
Oriental Bank of
Commerce 13,073 20.8 -3.4 2.8 10,171 -20.5 15.8 -8.6 -12,180 Loss PL Loss
Union Bank 23,870 11.7 14.5 2.1 21,341 15.3 51.4 11.9 1,082 4.1 12.6 -19.3
NBFC 92,039 11.8 12.9 3.0 76,870 10.4 13.6 1.7 39,334 1.1 -1.6 -8.4
Bharat Financial 1,644 -19.4 -0.9 -18.4 996 -32.0 -19.7 -32.5 -2,349 PL PL PL
Dewan Housing 5,360 4.1 22.6 1.7 4,586 10.0 37.7 8.2 2,483 1.4 30.9 0.4
GRUH Finance 1,854 22.5 19.3 0.5 1,613 24.7 23.3 1.8 1,104 72.5 25.8 6.4
HDFC 28,524 10.8 15.5 0.0 28,023 14.2 13.9 2.2 20,442 20.2 5.3 2.9
Indiabulls Housing 11,923 25.1 14.7 4.9 9,698 -3.6 9.0 -15.9 8,405 11.8 24.4 -1.1
LIC Housing Fin 10,396 13.6 26.6 0.7 8,954 10.4 22.3 0.0 5,292 6.0 18.1 -0.7
M & M Financial 11,117 49.0 11.1 16.9 7,252 83.7 6.7 23.2 2,341 LP -36.8 -16.2
Shriram City Union 7,134 -6.4 14.6 4.6 4,324 -7.1 26.2 11.4 120 -92.4 -78.4 -80.4

May 2017 9
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

Annexure: 4QFY17 performance of companies that have announced results


INR Million Sales EBITDA PAT
QoQ YoY Var QoQ YoY Var QoQ YoY Var
Company Mar 17 Chg (%) Chg (%) (%) Mar 17 Chg (%) Chg (%) (%) Mar 17 Chg (%) Chg (%) (%)
Shriram Transport Fin. 14,087 -0.2 -2.4 2.9 11,424 0.2 6.4 7.5 1,496 -56.7 4.0 1.7
Healthcare 90,334 -4.4 2.2 -9.4 16,614 -28.2 -2.1 -36.2 9,425 -34.4 3.2 -39.9
Ajanta Pharma 4,768 -10.6 12.0 1.0 1,714 -3.7 20.2 7.4 1,205 -15.5 10.5 3.6
Alembic Pharma 7,367 -4.3 17.8 -7.3 1,335 -7.7 -6.2 -12.1 930 8.0 2.2 -4.1
Biocon 9,250 -10.1 -2.1 -7.7 1,820 -30.3 -1.7 -25.4 1,270 -25.7 71.2 -20.1
Dr Reddy’ s Labs 35,542 -4.1 -5.4 -5.4 5,834 -31.6 -29.3 -31.9 3,125 -33.5 -16.9 -32.8
Glenmark Pharma 24,244 -1.6 11.5 -19.2 4,111 -40.7 110.6 -58.4 1,838 -61.5 23.5 -70.1
Granules India 3,634 1.1 -2.4 4.8 785 3.0 0.3 9.0 457 17.2 37.6 25.6
Sanofi India 5,529 -6.6 1.6 -8.2 1,015 -5.4 -21.4 -23.5 600 18.8 -25.6 -24.8
Media 15,280 -6.8 0.4 -0.3 4,687 -9.1 14.0 2.1 2,908 15.9 28.4 -24.8
Zee Entertainment 15,280 -6.8 0.4 -0.3 4,687 -9.1 14.0 2.1 2,908 15.9 28.4 -24.8
Metals 62,602 25.7 99.9 2.5 37,480 34.7 186.5 4.6 30,570 31.8 42.2 5.3
Hindustan Zinc 62,602 25.7 99.9 2.5 37,480 34.7 186.5 4.6 30,570 31.8 42.2 5.3
Oil & Gas 735,111 7.9 31.2 -3.9 118,963 6.1 6.5 5.3 86,218 2.4 14.1 8.9
Petronet LNG 63,651 1.0 4.9 -17.7 6,163 1.5 38.0 -2.6 4,708 18.4 96.8 18.7
Reliance Inds. 671,460 8.6 34.4 -2.3 112,800 6.4 5.2 5.7 81,510 1.6 11.4 8.4
Retail 34,297 -10.6 43.4 14.2 2,721 -25.8 30.3 2.0 2,029 -20.0 8.6 18.2
Titan Company 34,297 -10.6 43.4 14.2 2,721 -25.8 30.3 2.0 2,029 -20.0 8.6 18.2
Technology 810,761 0.5 5.2 -0.1 195,086 -0.9 2.7 0.1 149,995 -3.6 -0.1 4.9
Cyient 9,410 2.6 15.3 0.7 1,249 1.7 17.5 4.0 785 -16.5 -7.0 -3.8
HCL Technologies 120,530 2.0 12.7 0.0 26,490 0.8 11.3 0.4 20,250 -2.2 5.2 2.8
Hexaware Tech. 9,605 2.1 17.1 3.0 1,623 -0.1 35.9 5.3 1,139 -6.3 35.3 4.9
Infosys 171,200 -0.9 3.4 -0.7 46,580 -2.3 0.4 -0.4 36,030 -2.8 0.2 5.3
KPIT Tech. 8,585 3.3 2.1 3.6 870 2.9 -34.0 4.9 537 13.1 -39.3 19.1
L&T Infotech 16,772 0.6 7.7 1.0 3,190 5.6 13.1 5.1 2,547 2.7 11.4 14.8
Mindtree 13,181 1.8 -0.5 1.9 1,869 7.4 -17.3 7.8 972 -5.7 -37.7 0.0
NIIT Tech. 7,160 3.4 4.6 2.5 1,284 9.9 1.8 5.3 810 12.5 2.5 21.5
Persistent Systems 7,271 -2.5 7.4 -1.2 1,302 9.7 21.2 16.7 842 2.8 4.2 19.3
Tata Elxsi 3,260 5.4 10.9 -3.5 758 2.5 12.8 -4.6 445 -2.9 8.3 -11.2
TCS 296,420 -0.3 4.2 -1.2 81,330 -1.2 2.9 -0.7 66,080 -2.5 4.2 6.6
Wipro 139,875 2.2 2.6 2.7 27,844 -0.1 -0.7 2.5 19,340 -8.3 -13.5 1.9
Zensar Tech 7,492 -5.4 0.4 -6.8 697 -36.1 -24.4 -40.7 217 -73.3 -69.1 -68.3
Telecom 378,748 -4.7 -11.4 -1.1 121,292 -4.5 -19.1 4.4 11,441 40.4 -59.4 168.8
Bharti Airtel 219,346 -6.0 -12.1 -1.4 78,600 -7.3 -13.7 3.2 8,146 41.0 -45.5 20.3
Bharti Infratel 35,204 3.5 10.6 0.5 15,723 6.2 8.5 3.1 5,966 -3.8 -17.0 -17.5
Idea Cellular 81,261 -6.2 -14.3 0.6 21,945 1.3 -39.3 18.5 -3,277 Loss PL Loss
Tata Comm 42,937 -1.5 -16.5 -3.6 5,024 -11.7 -38.0 -19.7 607 8,097.1 132.4 249.0
Utilities 18,621 -2.2 -30.6 -5.5 5,869 -10.7 -48.4 -10.1 242 13.2 -92.1 -16.6
JSW Energy 18,621 -2.2 -30.6 -5.5 5,869 -10.7 -48.4 -10.1 242 13.2 -92.1 -16.6
Others 101,655 -0.2 2.2 -8.4 19,052 -4.8 -7.9 11.5 7,394 -0.1 -12.6 49.4
Arvind 24,648 5.5 10.4 -1.0 2,306 -2.7 -10.1 -22.8 1,048 35.1 7.8 -18.6
Coromandel International 22,591 -0.5 -25.9 -26.0 2,724 14.8 16.1 10.2 1,446 28.9 13.5 12.5
Inox Leisure 2,885 -3.2 14.3 5.7 251 -20.8 71.6 41.5 4 -88.1 LP LP
Interglobe Aviation 48,482 -2.8 18.5 -2.0 13,322 -7.5 -11.5 23.0 4,403 -9.6 -24.0 137.5
MCX 574 -9.5 3.2 -0.1 79 -43.9 -42.3 -38.2 219 -35.5 -23.9 -26.1
S H Kelkar 2,475 6.7 -7.0 -13.0 370 -6.6 -14.3 -23.6 274 7.9 12.5 -9.3
Note : Actual Vs Expectation is taken In Line for +/- 5% Variance. PL: Profit to Loss; LP: Loss to Profit Source: Company, MOSL

May 2017 10
India Strategy | Review 4QFY17

India Strategy, Thematics and Quant Research Gallery

May 2017 11
Disclosures
This document has been prepared by Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as Most) to provide information about the company (ies) and/sector(s), if any,India covered Strategy
in the report and| may
Review 4QFY17
be distributed by it and/or its
affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the selected recipient/s and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or
inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to
you solely for your general information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. This report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this material, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek
professional advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for
future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur.
MOSt and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationships with a some
companies covered by our Research Department. Our research professionals may provide input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. Investors should assume that MOSt and/or its affiliates are
seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies that are the subject of this material and that the research professionals who were involved in preparing this material may educate investors
on investments in such business . The research professionals responsible for the preparation of this document may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other parties for the purpose of gathering, applying and
interpreting information. Our research professionals are paid on twin parameters of performance & profitability of MOSt.
MOSt generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. Additionally, MOSt
generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of any companies that the analysts cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates
may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment
decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest.
MOSt and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies
mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an
advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing
whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the affiliates of MOSt even though there might exist an inherent
conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts company's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamental analysis. In addition MOST has different business segments / Divisions with independent research
separated by Chinese walls catering to different set of customers having various objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc, and therefore may at times have different contrary views on stocks sectors and markets.
Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees from,
any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees free
and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays. The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other
sources believed to be reliable. Any statements contained in this report attributed to a third party represent MOSt’s interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a
subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. This Report is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the
document. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that
may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the
information contained in this report. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the
implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.
This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for
any necessary explanation of its contents.
Most and it’s associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities, may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services, may have received any compensation
for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
Most and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report.
Subject Company may have been a client of Most or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise of over 1 % at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research in the securities mentioned in this
report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI Reg. No. INH000000412
Pending Regulatory inspections against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold inquiry and
adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL replied to the Show Cause Notice whereby SEBI granted us an opportunity of Inspection of Documents. Since all the documents requested by us were not covered we have requested to
SEBI vide our letter dated June 23, 2015 to provide pending list of documents for inspection.
List of associate companies of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited -Click here to access detailed report

Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for preparation of MOSt research receive
compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues
Disclosure of Interest Statement Companies where there is interest
 Analyst ownership of the stock No
 Served as an officer, director or employee No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes

Regional Disclosures (outside India)


This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which
would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has
an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Kong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to
SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities,
products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in
Hong Kong.
For U.S
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a
registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the
absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons.
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This
document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be
engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal
Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore,
may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a
subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the
Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Varun Kumar
Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65) 68189232/ (+65) 68189233 / 65249115
Office Address: 21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd


May 2017 Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025 12
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com