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Ebola Zaire tests Acholi culture How you will benefit from
Uganda’s response to fight HIV the 2019/2020 budget

Issue No. 577 June. 21 - 27 2019 Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8

BoU multi-billion
currency saga
What went wrong?

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Issue No. 577 June. 21 - 27 2019

News analysis Business Health Arts Motoring

Cover story
BoU multi-billion currency saga
What went wrong?

5 The Week
30 Comments
WFP sued over Karamoja
contaminated food Counterfeits a threat to
industrialisation: The court
battle between two local
9 The Last Word
battery manufacturers has
Uganda’s trending fashion: brought the issue to the fore
How popular sentiments have
undermined our journalism and
32 Health
blinded our intellectuals from reality
Acholi culture to
14 Analysis fight HIV: Ancient
fireside gatherings
Kampala city’s deadly floods: could tackle stigma
Why experts now want KCCA

35 Arts & Culture

27 Business
Daring the art market:
How you will benefit from the Ugandan goes for solo
2019/2020 budget: It is pro-growth, show in Nairobi
pro-poor; what is important is pushing
for its effective implementation

STRATEGY & EDITORIAL DIRECTOR: Andrew M. Mwenda WRITERS:Ronald Musoke, Flavia Nassaka, Ian Katusiime,
MANAGING EDITOR: Joseph Were Patricia Akankwatsa, Julius Businge.
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BUSINESS EDITOR: Isaac Khisa CARTOONIST: Harriet Jamwa

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2 June. 21 - 27 2019
 inbox

“We will have to verify those police

arrears before releasing any money.
Take it from me, I am going to hire an
international firm like I have done for
others to verify those police arrears.”Keith
Muhakanizi, Secretary to the Treasury on
Shs163 billion police arrears

Members of Parliament dance after the budget reading.   INDEPENDENT/ALFRED OCHWO

Rebecca Kadaga,
Speaker of Parliament,
signs a poster to mark
the launch of the ‘Girls
Get Equal’ campaign “I want the entire nation to observe a no
by Plan International handshaking/body contact phase until we
at Hotel Africana in
Kampala with a goal are Ebola free. I also want to appeal to you
of advancing gender all to always wash your hands with soap,
equality for girls jik and water.”Minister of Health, Jane Ruth
globally.   INDEPENDENT/
ALFRED OCHWO Aceng, on the Ebola outbreak

Members of the Uganda

Tour Operators Association
joined other Ugandans
to protest the proposed
giveaway of Murchison
Falls for hydropower dam
construction.  INDEPENDENT/ “Is it reasonable for tradition to force
ALFRED OCHWO Mulwana or Nsibambi who had built all his
wealth with hard work to bequeath it to a
lousy nephew?”President Museveni backing
the late former PM Apolo Nsibambi on naming
his daughter as heir

Money Ugandan traders have Money government The volume

Shs180bn lost since Rwanda closed its
border with Uganda
600bn will inject in FY
2019/2020
$740m of Uganda-
Russia trade

June. 21 - 27 2019 3
week

Uganda Cranes in high gear for AFCON ‘19
After a 1-0 win over
highly rated Ivory Coast,
Uganda Cranes enter the
AFCON 2019 tournament
in high gear hoping to put
up a better performance
from their 2017 campaign.
Striker Farouk Miya scored
the goal in a morale-boost-
ing win against the West
African giants in a friendly
match played in Abu Dhabi.
Uganda are in the same
group with hosts Egypt but
will play their first group
game against DRC on June
22. Zimbabwe is the fourth
member of Group A. This is
the second straight Nations
Cup final that Uganda has
been placed in the same
group as Mohamed Salah’s
Egypt. The hosts have won it
a record seven times. Group
A has been billed as one of
the toughest groups in the
tournament. “Our chances
in advancing will be tough
because of the similar level
of the teams in our group. It
will be a difficult match-up
facing the Pharaohs on their
home turf amid their pas-
sionate fans,” Cranes Coach
Sebastien Desabre said after
the draw was made in April.
The month-long tournament
has six groups and 24 teams
in total.
WFP sued over Karamoja
contaminated food
In March, supplies of contaminated food
in the districts Napak and and Amudat left
296 people sick and four dead and now
an anti-counterfeit body has dragged the
government and World Food Programme
(WFP) to court. The Anti-Corruption
Network (ACN) wants court to declare
that the supply of contaminated food
by to the people of Karamoja violated
international standards. It is alleged
that the victims suffered mental illness,
vomiting, headache, high fever and
abdominal pains in communities resulting
from consuming the super cereal corn
soya blend supplied to Karamoja Sub-
region by WFP. In the case filed before
the Kampala High Court, ACN says this
was caused by the negligence of WFP. “A
declaration that the failure by the health
minister and government to cause the
reprimand, sanction or prosecution of
the first respondent (WFP), its agents or
servants for the acts and omissions is an
act of connivance against the public which
is illegal, irrational and procedurally
irregular,” the petition reads in part.

Muhakanizi gets three Uganda rejects new Kenyan currency notes

more years at MOF Kenyans were excited are advised to subject
after their Central Bank all flows from and into
President Yoweri retired. He was issued a new series of Kenya to enhanced due
Museveni renewed Kassami’s deputy. banknotes effective May 31 diligence. Please be
the contract of Keith Patrick Ocailap, the but Uganda and Tanzania advised that changing
Muhakanizi, a long deputy Permanent halted the conversion of the Kenyan currency from
serving staff at the Secretary, also got Kenyan Shillings as a mea- old to new banknotes
Ministry of Finance another three year sure to stop possible money can only be done in
for another three contract. Muhakan- laundering with the new Kenya.”  This suspen-
years as the Per- izi has been an series of notes. In a state- accept Kenya Shillings at its sion could see the value of
manent Secretary. integral member of ment Bank of Uganda (BoU) counters with immediate East Africa’s strongest cur-
Muhakanizi joined Museveni’s team on said it had been informed effect,” BOU, the statement rency eroded since people
the ministry as a handling the econ- by the Central Bank of Ken- added, “CBK has also sus- won’t accept to change it. It
young economist omy over the years ya (CBK) that they have, pended currency conversion is not unusual for countries
in 1982 under the but he has also been 2019, with a view to combat and repatriation of Kenya to recall old notes to combat
second Obote gov- involved in contro- illicit flows and counterfeits currency.” BOU added that financial fraud.
ernment and rose versies regarding into Kenya. “BoU will not going forward, “[people]
through the ranks to government spend-
his current position ing and alleged
in 2013 when Chris
Kassami (deceased)
corruption. With his
signature stammer, EU releases Shs10bn to fight Ebola
Muhakanizi an intel-
ligent economist, The European Union (EU) has released to a press statement. Christos Stylianides,
has been the face of an additional €2.5 million (about Shs10.5 the Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid
the NRM govern- billion) for strengthening rapid detection and Crisis Management and EU Ebola
ment’s economic and reaction to Ebola cases in Uganda. With coordinator, said the main task at hand is
management and the country on high alert, the funding comes not only to help the DRC but also assist
performance par- on top of the €17 million (about Shs71.8 neighbouring countries like Uganda. The
ticularly regarding billion) in EU funding for Ebola response funding is helping with surveillance, work
infrastructure invest- since 2018 in DR Congo and prevention with local communities, and boosting local
ment and petroleum and preparedness actions in Uganda, South capacities for these countries to take timely
exploration. Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi, according and effective action.

4 June. 21 - 27 2019
 week

More grief in Rwenzururu after Queen mother is buried

to be buried in Kasese when
they have ancestral land in
Bundibugyo. Kibanzanga
commended President
Museveni for being a friend
to their mother, adding that
the royal family has benefit-
ted from that relationship.
Rwenzururu Queen Mother
DRC applies to join EAC Christine Biira Mukirani
died at 85 after her health
As a mark of re-shaping the Democratic deteriorated. Mumbere is
Republic of Congo (DRC) under his reign, Christopher Kibanzanga weeps at the funeral of his mother facing charges of terrorism,
President Felix Tshisekedi (Pictured) has murder and other capital
written to his Rwandan counterpart Paul As if the wounds of wish of burying his mother offences and was given
Kagame, who is the current chairman of the the 2016 attack on the in Kasese, the seat of the tough conditions to travel
East African Community (EAC), seeking to Rwenzururu palace in kingdom was not granted. for the burial of his mother.
join the six member bloc. “This request fol- Kasese are not still fresh, Christopher Kibanzanga, the In the fourteen days end-
lows the ever-increasing trade between the there was more grief in the State Minister for Agricul- ing June 29 during which
economic players of the Democratic Repub- kingdom when the Queen ture, and a younger brother his bail conditions were
lic of the Congo and those of the states of the mother of King Charles to Mumbere ordered the relaxed, Mumbere is not
Community,” he wrote on June 8. The vast Wesley Mumbere, was bur- burial to take place in Bun- permitted to engage in
natural resource-rich central African coun- ied in Bundibugyo, where dibugyo pitting him against any activities, meetings or
try is seeking to join the EAC after various the family reportedly has some royals. Kibanzanga consultations that are not
behind-the-scenes rapprochements. If DRC ancestral land. Mumbere told mourners that it was related to the burial.
joins, it will be a part of a rapidly growing snubbed the burial after his not proper for their mother
bloc consisting of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda,
Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan. Tsh-
isekedi wrote of his desire to join the Com- Bobi Wine promoter arrested, whereabouts unknown
munity of regional leaders “so that we can
work together for the development of our Andy John Mukasa Limited, is the official
respective countries and stabilise this part alias Bajjo, an events events organiser for
of Africa.” Tshisekedi has had an eventful promoter who works Bobi Wine. Police
first 100 days where he has already visited closely with Kyad- Spokesman, Fred
Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda and has also just dondo East Member Enanga said that Spe-
concluded a two day state visit to Tanzania. of Parliament, Robert cial Forces Brigade
DRC has been a nation racked by war and Kyagulanyi aka Bobi (SFC) officers arrested
instability since its independence and its Wine was arrested by Mukasa after he post-
rich mineral deposits have mainly fuelled Presidential Protection ed a video on social
the conflicts. The eastern part of the country Guards (PPG) and his media that they have a
has borne the brunt of militia groups and is whereabouts remain plan to oust President
still reeling from an Ebola outbreak that has unknown. He was Museveni from power
claimed an estimated 1,400 lives. President reportedly dumped at Special Investigations before 2021. Wine is the leader of People
Tshisekedi however has taken on his new Division (SID) headquarters on charges of Power, a surging political movement that
job with a quiet optimism dealing with each incitement to violence. Mukasa, the propri- has galvanized the youth against the thirty
challenge one step at a time. etor of Bajjo Events and Marketing Agency year rule of Museveni.

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June. 21 - 27 2019 5
week

NGOs feel donor Iran to breach 2015 nuclear deal

squeeze after
corruption claims
NGOs in Uganda are
reeling from the cutback
of funding from The
Democratic Governance
Facility (DGF), the
largest pool of donor
funding in Uganda.
DGF terminated funding
to four NGOs after a
forensic audit unearthed
corruption- a silent vice
in the sector. Sources
say some of the NGOs
have now shelved
projects which were
set to run for months
thanks to the drawback.
Daily Monitor reported
that unsupported
expenditure, outright
theft, improper
procurements and using
the same documents
to account to different
donors, were some
of the issues raised.
“Unfortunately, the
conclusions of the Iran has announced regime. The Atomic have previously said
forensic confirmed it will breach the limit Energy Organisation they will have no choice
incidences of fraudulent on its stockpile of of Iran said it had but to reimpose their
practices, governance enriched uranium on quadrupled production own sanctions, which
issues, and forgery June 27 in a move that of the material, which were lifted in return for
of accountability,” will test the Donald is used to make reactor limits on the Iranian
Swedish Ambassador Trump administration. fuel and potentially nuclear programme. The
Per Lindgarde said The limits were set in a nuclear weapons. Iranian announcement comes at
in a media statement. framework that was set officials however said a time of high tension in
Concerns of financial under a 2015 nuclear deal there was “still time” for the Middle East, with the
impropriety have always with world powers. The European countries to act US accusing Iran of being
dogged the NGO/ civil Trump administration by protecting Iran from behind suspected attacks
society sector and the had for long said the reinstated US sanctions. that left two oil tankers
government has always nuclear deal was a bad one U.K, France and Germany ablaze in the Gulf of
criticised NGOs for their which would only serve have warned Iran not to Oman. Iran has denied any
lack of transparency and to embolden the Iranian violate the deal. They involvement .
accountability.

6 June. 21 - 27 2019
 Did you know?
A woman Why monkeys can’t
poses for a
picture with respond to music
a caterpillar-
tracked
Bentley
Continental
GT, which was
modified by
Russian car
engineering
enthusiasts,
during a
demonstration
in St.
Petersburg,
Russia.

If your loved one’s crooning is

music to your ears, the reason appears
to rest with part of brain that is super-
sensitive to pitch. That’s the finding of
a new study offering a fresh look into
what makes us human.
For the research, which aimed to
understand the role of music in health,
researchers compared how human
brains and monkey brains respond
to speech and music. Key finding:
People have a far keener sensitivity to
pitch than our evolutionary cousins,
macaque monkeys.
In the study, researchers played a
series of harmonic sounds, or tones, to
healthy volunteers and monkeys, and
used imaging to see how their brains
responded. They also monitored
brain activity in response to toneless
sounds.
Though the brains of monkeys
and humans had similar hot spots in
response to high frequency sounds, a
Brazil’s Marta, left, celebrates with teammates after scoring the opening goal during the Women’s World brain area called the auditory cortex
Cup Group C soccer match between Australia and Brazil at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier, France. was far more sensitive to tones among
the humans.
“This finding suggests that speech
and music may have fundamentally
changed the way our brain processes
pitch,” said lead author Bevil Conway,
of the U.S. National Institutes of
Health. “It may also help explain why
it has been so hard for scientists to
train monkeys to perform auditory
tasks that humans find relatively
effortless.”
Conway said the results suggest
that over time the ability to speak
and craft music may have somehow
fundamentally altered the way the
human brain interprets pitch.
In contrast, the macaque’s
experience of the visual world is
probably similar to humans’, Conway
added.
Toronto Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard (2) and Toronto Raptors center Serge Ibaka (9) celebrate with the The findings appear in the June 10
Larry O’Brien Trophy after the Golden State Warriors in game six of the 2019 NBA Finals at Oracle Arena, issue of Nature
Oakland, California, June 13, 2019.

June. 21 - 27 2019
 News analysis Health Business
Oil money: big Is chicken healthier Inside URA’s proposed
decisions needed than beef? customs taxes

Issue No. 576 June. 14 - 20 2019

Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8

Inbox
Follow us on Twitter @ Museveni
http://twitter.com/#!/ugandatalks locks out oil
investors
It’s Total disaster
Follow us on Facebook @
www.facebook.com/TheIndependentMagazineUganda
www.independent.co.ug

Letters are
welcome ! No bullying on oil
The Editor welcomes short and Refer to: “Museveni locks out oil investors” (The independent June
concise letters from our esteemed 14). His Excellence President Yoweri Museveni is right. Let’s make
readers on topical issues. Please the right decision for the future. I like our man. No bullying, full stop.
send them to:
The Editor, The Independent
Publications Ltd, Wilson Komakech
P.O Box 3304,
Plot 82/84 Kanjokya St,
Kamwokya.
Win-win deal needed on oil
Kampala,Uganda.
Refer to: “Museveni locks out oil inves- see up to the end point, it’s not clear how
tors” (The independent June 14). We need to deal with taxes on such a big deal. If this
Email: editor@independent.co.ug
to get going. In any negotiation, you can’t is not reviewed seriously with a business
have it all. Lose some win some and create mind, nothing will be unlocked.
the win-win situation. There is a bigger gain
Details needed in when oil production activity starts. The issue
stems around taxes and I am disturbed to
Allan

BoU cargo saga

Refer to: “Detailed account in the BOU
currency saga” (The Independent Online
June 15). The company responsible for
airlifting currency must be brought to inves-
tigation for carrying extra cargo well aware
that it is against signed agreement and secu-
rity organs at Entebbe airport who claims
unnoticed/unawareness disappearance of
the cargo after clearance. I think it’s early to
draw conclusions over this. Most important
is, we need to protect and have confidence in
our currency.
Anania la’propeta
Mzungu savior killing babies in Mayuge?
Refer to: “Is mzungu
savior killing babies in
Mayuge? Renee Bach is
not a nurse or doctor; over
100 babies she treated have
died” (The Independent
Feb.27). This is a tragic sto-
ry. If at all these stories are
true, the leaders in those are
a mockery leadership. Why
didn’t they follow and inves-
tigate the death of all those
children? There are gaps
in the story though. Babies
have been dying since 2012.
Why are parents coming out
now? Why would parents
take their children to a death
camp after many alleged
stories of children dying at
the hands of the white lady?
Whoever reported this story
on behalf of The Indepen-
dent is an amateur journalist
who deserves to go back to
the drawing and learn how
to do good reporting. This
story is so much half baked,
there is no way people can
lose 100 children since 2012
and not report it to police
until now. Why didn’t The
Independent carry out an
investigation and dig up to
the root of the problem and
produce concrete evidence
instead of reporting these
stupid and uninformed
stories?
Godfrey Jeje, Portland,OR

Thanks BoU
Governor Mutebile
Refer to: “Detailed account in the BOU
currency saga” (The Independent Online
June 15). Whereas majority of Ugandans
work hard to earn a few thousands for sur-
vival, some few unscrupulous Ugandans
are printing money for their own! This is not
only worrying but also mindboggling, per-
plexing and intolerable. The culprits should
be tried in courts of law. I commend Bank
of Uganda Governor, Emmanuel Mutebile
for saving Uganda from money laundering.
Older people are better in some of these sen-
sitive areas.
Paul Kilimi Wanda
Mayuge Mzungu
well intentioned
Refer to: “Is mzungu savior killing babies
in Mayuge? Renee Bach is not a nurse or
doctor; over 100 babies she treated have
died” (The Independent Feb.27). The White
Lady should not be tried by social media.
She surely went with good intentions,
and was swamped by the overwhelming
problems she encountered. There are hor-
rific stories of desperation and hunger and
exploitation by external agencies coming out
of Africa. So this woman should be given
a fair trial before her accusers. Jamaicans
would say” good mi do, tenki mi get!”
Jean Williams Smith
URA should handle
BoU currency saga
Refer to: “Detailed account in the BOU
currency saga” (The Independent Online
June 15). To me, I think Bank of Uganda
(BoU) should let the public know that the
currency which was brought is the right
quantity it had ordered to be printed. Then
the issue of the extra cargo can now be han-
dled by the Uganda Revenue Authority and
also the police should make an inquiry to
how those extra cargos were loaded; mean-
ing, the company that airlifted the currency
must be aware.
Olemo tonny

8 June. 21 - 27 2019

Uganda’s trending fashion
By Andrew M. Mwenda
How popular sentiments have undermined our
journalism and blinded our intellectuals from reality
I
t has become increasingly trendy and
fashionable within certain sections of
social media in Uganda to denounce
President Yoweri Museveni. It does
not matter what arguments one makes
or evidence they adduce to back up their
case or the values they stand for. It is just
cool to accuse Museveni of looting and
destroying Uganda. Many Ugandan
journalists, intellectuals and pundits seeking
popular validation of their ideas, afraid to be
“misunderstood”, desperate for approval, or
plainly emotional and ignorant, pander to
popular sentiments in complete disregard of
the facts.
For instance, Godbar Tumushabe recently
sent me a clip of my 2007 TED talk decrying
the rising cost of Public Administration on
the budget. He asked what had happened
to me now that I no longer denounce
Museveni’s excessive expenditure on
political patronage. I replied telling
him that nothing had happened to me;
something fundamental had happened to
the budget (or Museveni): the cost of Public
Administration on the budget had been
shrinking in relative terms even though it
had grown in absolute terms. I added that
Godbar and me should share part of the
praise for this change in our nation’s budget
because we played a part.
On May 22, 2002, then Permanent
Secretary to the Ministry of Finance, also
Secretary to the Treasury, Chris Kasami,
gave a profound talk at a public expenditure
workshop in Kampala. He argued that
there was need for “stronger control over
the expenditures of Public Administration.”
Public administration at the time included
State House, Office of the Prime Minister,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Public Service,
Uganda Revenue Authority, Parliament,
Electoral Commission, and the Ministry of
Finance.
Kasami made two critical points: first
that the budget for Public Administration
had grown too rapidly. Second that the
sector had consistently failed to fit within
its budget, thereby claiming a large share
of supplementary budget approvals, which
negatively affected budget releases of other
sectors. He said that Public Administration
was “currently the second largest sector in
the government budget, taking 20% of the
total government spending. He revealed that
it had been growing at an annual average
The Last Word
rate of 16%, claiming an increasing share
of GDP i.e. rising from 2.9% of GDP in
the 1997/98 budget to 3.6% of GDP in the
2001/02 budget.
Kasami argued that if the cost of public
administration had grown in tandem with
the growth in population, the country
would have saved over Shs80 billion for
other sectors that were critical. He argued
that the reasons for the ballooning cost of
Public Administration was the growth of
semi autonomous government agencies,
missions abroad and the cost of “the political
system” i.e. patronage. Here he mentioned
62 ministers, 35 presidential advisors, 56
RDCs, 56 districts, 305 MPs and the growing
size of the EC.
Godbar and I launched an advocacy
program at ACODE where we campaigned
against this development. We raised money
from the Netherlands government and in
2006 and 2007 held a series of high profile
seminars. I presented papers on how, since
2002, things had gone from bad to worse. I
demonstrated that there had been negligible
investment in roads and electricity, sectors
that are fundamental to future growth
prospects. I even presented tables comparing
Uganda’s spending on energy and transport
infrastructure with other Sub Sahara African
countries – and we were below average.
Public officials; especially from the
Ministry of Finance, and donors attended.
In the 2008/09 FY government made a
U-turn and created the Energy and Road
Funds, and poured money into them. It
also established UNRA to lead the road
construction program. In the first year, the
Ministry of Works was unable to absorb the
money because they did not even have road
designs. However, we at ACODE had scored
big: we contributed to the transformation of
the budget from political patronage to long-
term investments in Transport and Energy.
It is possible government (and Museveni)
were already on this path. But there is no
denying that my work with Godbar and
ACODE generally played a vital role in
this process and we should be proud of it.
So I replied raising these developments to
Godbar, arguing that criticising Museveni
is not a fashion for me. The president and
government changed to our side and we
should applaud them for it. Changing
government behavior and policies does not
always (although sometimes it may) require
opinion
confrontations. Media and civil society work
with government to achieve shared goals.
Let us now look at the facts of the 2019/20
Budget, which is Shs32 trillion: the largest
portion of it goes to the ministry of works to
do roads i.e. Shs6.4 trillion (20%), followed
by Defense at Shs3.6 trillion, Education
Shs3.2 trillion, Energy Shs2.9 trillion, etc.
Public Administration has fallen from being
number two largest budget item in 2002/03
to number 12 at Shs908 billion (2.9% of the
budget) in 2019/20. Even if we add Public
Sector Management, it comes to Shs1.5
trillion (4.5% of the budget and 10th largest
budgetary item).
Even in the face of these facts, Godbar
was not willing to change his mind. He
said nothing has changed. The size of
presidential advisors has remained the same
or increased, which may be true. He argued
that all government has done is separate
Public Sector Management from Public
Administration. He did not even care to
look at the facts i.e. that even when the two
sectors are combined the improvement is
big. I must add that not everything under
Public Sector Management was part of
Public Administration.
I find it difficult to refuse to change my
mind in the face of new developments
or new facts. I find it dishonest to keep
harping on a problem that has been solved.
Museveni may not have reduced the number
of his advisors, districts or size of his cabinet.
These have increased. However, they are
increasingly taking a much smaller share
of our budget. On the contrary, over the
last decade, government has become more
developmental, pouring ever increasing
resources into long term investments like
roads, dams, electricity transmission lines,
water systems, etc.
Museveni critics have been raising a
complaint that he has taken too many loans
at the cost of increasing debt, which will be
borne by our grand children. This argument
is misinformed because it would make
sense only if the loans were taken to finance
today’s consumption. However, almost all
the loans Uganda has taken lately have gone
into long-term investments to benefit our
grandchildren.
amwenda@independent.co.ug
June. 21 - 27 2019 9
COVER STORY

BoU multi-billion
currency saga
What went wrong?

10 June. 21 - 27 2019

T
By Haggai Matsiko
his is a serious issue,” muttered
Bank of Uganda Governor
Tumusiime Mutebile when he
heard about at it.
A plane chartered to trans-
port new currency notes to
Uganda from France had on April 27 landed
at Entebbe Airport with cargo not tallying
with the expected central bank order.
Mutebile was in a meeting in his office on
May 03 but details remain scanty as officials
at BoU are tight-lipped given the sensitivity
of the matter.
Mutebile immediately decided to act.
Sources say he called Edith Nakalema, the
head of the State House Anti-Corruption
Unit (ACU). He wanted her team to inves-
tigate the events of April 27. Mutebile fol-
lowed up later with a letter on May 08.
“The Governor wanted to be sure what
was contained in the other boxes was not
currency and the circumstances under
which it had ended up on a plane that was
chattered to carry only BoU cargo,” a source
close to the investigations told The Indepen-
dent.
In turn, Nakalema informed President
Yoweri Museveni who gave her a green
light to get to the bottom of the issue. “I
don’t want to hear anything in the media,”
President Museveni reportedly sternly
added.
A lot was at stake as the saga involved
Bank of Uganda, hundreds of billions of
shillings, and two of the world’s biggest
companies in the business of security and
currency printing, and logistics.
Because money wears out and the econo-
my grows, BoU regularly orders fresh bank
notes from its various suppliers. Some of
these include; De La Rue, which is based in
the United Kingdom; Giesecke & Devrient
based in Lipzig Germany; and Oberthur
Fudiciaire from France. The trio is amongst
the best in the small and highly sensitive
industry of security and currency printing.
Sometime last year, BoU requested
Oberthur Fudiciare, which prints only two
of Uganda’s bank notes, to print an undis-
closed amount of notes. As part of its long
running contract with BoU, Oberthur was to
deliver these at Entebbe on April 27.
BoU had sent a team as normally happens
to witness the loading of this cash in France.
This team was comprised of the head of
currency Mbale and the head of currency
Kabale BoU branches. They arrived before
the cargo and both headed to their worksta-
tions.
Previously, The Independent understands
that this team used to travel on the same
plane as the cash. However, the central bank
changed policy. The BoU staff that inspects
the cash travels on passenger planes. The
cash travels on a cargo plane.
As part of its long running contract with
Tumusiime Mutebile
President Museveni
Oberthur to print and deliver cash, BoU
locked in the world’s best logistics com-
pany—Kuehne+Nagel. Founded in 1890,
Kuehne+Nagel has some 1,300 offices in over
100 countries, with around 82,000 employ-
ees, according to its website.
So, when Kuene + Nagel cargo plane land-
ed at Entebbe on April 27, many expected
all to be well. It was supposed to be carrying
only exactly 20 pallets of freshly printed cash
from Oberthur Fudiciare. These contained
the cash BoU had ordered and expected to
be invoiced for. (Indeed, while dispelling
claims extra cash was delivered at Entebbe,
a BoU official said that the central bank
has been invoiced for exactly what they
ordered).
However, problems started emerging
when a BoU team led by a one Milton
Baruku, which came to the airport to receive
the cash, discovered that there were five
extra boxes also, which looked similar as
the 20 they were supposed to receive. They
signed for only the 20 and said that is all
they expected.
But it appears once they returned to the
central bank, no one mentioned a thing
because it was not until May 03 that the Gov-
ernor got to know.
Mary Katarikawe, the Executive Director
Operations at BoU, while appearing on
Radio One’s prime talk show, Spectrum,
COVER STORY
on June 17 said that the Acting Director
Currency discovered the anomaly and there
were internal preliminary investigations
before the BoU management asked Nakale-
ma to come in. By now, a week had elapsed.
And stakes were high.
Could the five other boxes have con-
tained extra cash? If they did, who had
ordered that cash and where was it? These
were some the biggest questions.
A memo seen by The Independent about
the matter detailed what exactly BoU had
ordered for. The Independent has withheld
these details because it could not ascertain
their veracity and also because of the sensi-
tivity of the matter.
A senior official at BoU, who only accept-
ed to comment on conditions of anonymity
said from the preliminary findings of their
investigations, the issue boils down to
neglect of responsibility by the courier and
BoU staff who failed to report the “anoma-
ly” when they discovered it in France and
later at Entebbe.
These were two separate teams—the one
that went to France and the one that went
to Entebbe. How could they both make the
same mistake?
A desire to answer these questions seems
to have resulted into the arrest of eight BoU
officials from the central bank premises
on June.12, a day before the reading of the
national budget. Up until this time, both
BoU and the Nakalema team had managed
to keep the investigation under wraps for a
cool one and a half months.
Away from the BoU team, the other
question was; how could two international
companies stake their reputations over only
a few million dollars? Two figures have been
reported in press reports as the likely extra
cash that was printed—Shs90 billion ($24
million) and Shs200 billion ($54 million).
The contract BoU entered with Oberthur
demands that only the currency ordered by
the central bank is carried on the chartered
plane.
The Independent wrote to both the media
teams of Kuehne+Nagel and the currency
printer Oberthur Fudiciare. “Why were
there other items on the plane that transport-
ed BoU cash?” The Independent asked.
But by press time the both had not
responded. The Independent could not
confirm reports that the courier had since
apologised to BoU.
Insiders say it is highly unlikely such
companies can enter a deal with private
individuals to print extra cash and put their
contracts with the national authority and
their reputation at stake.
A BoU official also told The Independent
there is no way individuals at the bank can
carry out such a move and not be detected.
It would require coordination across several
departments and would leave a paper trail.
For BoU to order cash, the process starts
with the Currency Department, which falls
June. 21 - 27 2019 11
COVER STORY
Edith Nakalema
under the Operations Function headed by
the Executive Director Operations—now
Mary Katarikawa.
Such a requisition would have to be based
on proper documentation showing the
currency that has expired and needs to be
replaced and the new currency required as a
result of the growth of the economy.
This requisition would then have to be
approved by a committee whose members
are at Executive Directors’ level at BoU. After
all this, the paper work would then go to
the procurement department. This would
handle the procurement process and order
the cash.
Then the accounts department would
come in to pay. And lastly, audit would also
come in. Several senior BoU officials would
have to be involved and this would leave a
trail of paper work.
“From the information we have and the
preliminary findings of the investigations no
extra money was printed,” the official noted.
Two other institutions—Nakalema’s Unit
and Uganda Revenue Authority—at the
heart of the investigations have also noted
that no extra cash was found in the extra five
boxes.
Dickson Kateshumbwa, the URA Acting
Commissioner General, said in a statement
to journalists on Saturday June 15 that when
a privately chartered plane arrived in April,
and as normal practice for sensitive cargo,
customs facilitated clearance of the currency
at the tarmac in presence of BOU officials,
aviation security, and other security agen-
cies.
He explained that the consignment was
then loaded on BOU vehicles and taken to
Kampala with heavy security escort. The
extra cargo, which belonged to other indi-
12 June. 21 - 27 2019
viduals, companies and organisations, he
added, was cleared after paying taxes.
Apparently, the cargo belonged to over
10 entities including organisations like the
United Nations, USAID, and individuals like
businessman Charles Mbire, the chairman
MTN Uganda, Omar Mandela, the propri-
etor of City Oil fuel stations and Café Javas.
Nakalema has said that the focus of the
investigation is how this extra cargo ended
up on a plane that was supposed to carry
only BoU cargo. The Independent could not
verify reports that her unit had since contact-
ed the courier Kuehne+Nagel to explain the
circumstances under which this happened.
Despite these clarifications, however, the
story appeared to take another twist with
reports emerging that police had raided
homes of officials at the centre of the con-
troversy as part of an investigation into the
alleged printing of unauthorised excess cur-
rency notes.
By press time, official Government
Spokesperson, Ofwono Opondo had dis-
missed the statements attributed to police as
“misleading”.
While currency dealings tend to be highly
secretive, Uganda is not the first African
country to get caught up in currency related
controversies.
Last year, reports emerged that newly
printed notes worth over $ 100 dollars had
disappeared after arriving at the Freeport of
Monrovia in Liberia.
Reports indicated that the government
was trying to determine what happened
to containers of Liberian dollars that were
brought into the Liberia between 2016 and
2018 under the administration of Ellen John-
son Sirleaf. Many countries like Liberia and
Uganda, do not have their own currency
mints because the business of printing mon-
ey is too complex and extremely sensitive
and expensive. It is only a handful of coun-
tries—China, U.S., India, France, UK, Can-
ada, and a few others that print their own
cash and have companies that print cash for
other countries.
Until recently, the other evidence of risks
involved in relying on providers in other
countries to print cash was the Libya case
of 2011 when at the height of the fight to
overthrow the late Col. Muammar Gaddafi,
the UK government withheld about £929
million, £140m of which had been printed by
De La Rue, causing a banknote shortage in
the country.
It is incidents like these that last year
proponents of a deal in which government
wanted to partner with a German company,
Veridos Identity Solutions Group, to print
currency in Uganda were citing. The deal’s
backers included officials at the Finance
Ministry.
However, Governor Mutebile opposed the
move citing concerns the company was not a
“known banknote/currency printing compa-
ny” and the likelihood of “lapses in security
causing leakages of printing materials or
counterfeits”, which would put the economy
at risk. Experts say he was right.
And eventually, when the deal was inked,
the Investment minister Evelyn Anite, who
signed the MoU, clarified that money print-
ing, would not be part of the security print-
ing deal.
This incident could, however, rearm those
in favour of printing currency locally. BoU
now faces the biggest challenge to prove that
its suppliers are reliable and their activities
do not endanger the economy.

By Eric Keels & Joshua Lambert
S
udanese security forces violently re-
moved a protest camp in the capital,
Khartoum, on June 3.
In addition to brutally beating
the pro-democracy protesters, government
troops also fired on the demonstrators. Ear-
ly numbers suggest that at least 61 people
died during the week, though that number
may grow in the coming days.
The deadly violence occurred after
months of citizen protests against the vio-
lent and repressive rule of the longtime
ruler of Sudan, President Omar al-Bashir.
Sudan’s military removed him from office
on April 11. Soon after the coup, talks began
about the transition of power to civilian
rule. There were high hopes among democ-
racy advocates that a new civilian govern-
ment would soon take control of the state.
As scholars of armed conflict, we believe
that such reforms are likely to be put on
hold following this episode of government
repression. The findings from our forthcom-
ing research on coups around the world sug-
gest that this state-sponsored brutality may
just be the start of a more deadly crackdown.
A brief history
Since coming to power through a military
coup in 1989, al-Bashir ruled Sudan with an
iron fist. The government routinely engaged
in widespread atrocities as a way to cripple
dissent.
This violence was largely directed at the
disenfranchised southern and western por-
tions of the country, in Darfur and what is
now South Sudan. Political power is largely
concentrated in the areas surrounding Khar-
toum. After years of international economic
sanctions in response to those human rights
abuses, in 2018 large groups of citizens
in Khartoum, as well as in municipalities
surrounding Khartoum, began to demon-
strate and call for al-Bashir to step down
from power. Though the military initially
responded by violently suppressing the pro-
tests, the Sudanese Army finally acquiesced
to popular demands and arrested al-Bashir.
This recent escalation of violence is not
the first instance of indiscriminate violence
by the new military junta in Sudan. On May
15, soon after the April coup, military forces
opened fire on protesters in Khartoum.
Sudanese Americans rally outside the
White House in Washington, Saturday, June
8, 2019, in solidarity with pro-democracy
protests in Sudan. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik
Perceived threats
Our research suggests that there may be
greater violence against Sudanese civilians
in the coming weeks. We study when and
where governments respond to threats
through the use of state-sponsored violence
– specifically, killings by the government.
Potential threats to government control may
be external, such as rebel attacks, or they
may be internal, such as military coups.
Sudan to crack
more on protesters
A government’s perception of these
threats is intimately tied to their control of
the capital city. When governments believe
that there is a risk that they may lose control
of the capital, we have found that govern-
ment elites respond with the use of greater
targeted violence toward civilians.
While coups themselves are rare events,
the threat of a coup, and leaders’ behavior to
avoid it, are more common in fragile states.
Leaders who are concerned about being
unseated may purge the capital of perceived
dissidents as the possibility of a coup emerg-
es. This was the case in the 1960s and the
early 1980s in Guatemala, as the Guatemalan
government killed thousands of suspected
dissidents when they believed the risk of
a coup was greatest. Similarly, the Derg
regime in Ethiopia killed over 10,000 people
in the late 1970s, when the government felt
threatened by the growing terrorist cam-
paign inside Addis Ababa.
The risk of a coup
With data from the Uppsala Conflict Data
Program, we can identify where govern-
ments around the world have used force
against civilians and also where rebel activi-
ty took place between 1989 and 2018.
We also used machine learning methods,
including those employed by CoupCast,
the premier scientific model for forecasting
coups. With this, we could predict the risk of
a coup occurring, relative to other countries.
Scholars have found that the risk of coups
is tied to major shifts in economic and polit-
ical stability. Weak civil society, unregulated
political competition and economic down-
turns all contribute to a rise in the potential
risk of a coup. Coups often happen in bursts,
news analysis
so the time since the last coup matters, too.
As the estimated risk of a military coup
rises, our models show a significant increase
in government-sponsored violence. This is
particularly true in parts of the country close
to the capital. When the risk of a coup is
high, governments engage in more targeted
killings of civilians in capital cities, as well as
the surrounding district. Within the capital,
a 1% increase in coup risk results in 20 addi-
tional civilian deaths by government forces
a year.
Additionally, nearly all civilian deaths
within the capital take place in countries in
the top 25% of coup risk.
What this means for Sudan
The risk of a coup within Sudan has
increased since al-Bashir’s forced exit from
office, as compared to the days leading up to
his ouster.
This is largely because past coups increase
the risk of future coups, a fact that is not lost
on the perpetrators of coups d’état.
Less than two months since the removal of
al-Bashir, pro-democracy advocates within
Sudan have called on the new regime to
hand over power to a civilian government.
Negotiations on a possible transitional
power-sharing government have ended
with no agreement, and demonstrators have
increased their demands for the government
to hand over power.
Our models suggest that, as the perceived
internal threat grows within Sudan, protest-
ers – particularly those in the capital – are at
risk of being brutally suppressed, with vio-
lence only escalating.
The civilians killed on June 3 may just be
the start of a more violent campaign.
June. 21 - 27 2019 13
NEWS ANALYSIS
Ebola Zaire tests
Uganda’s response
WHO warns big outbreaks becoming `new normal’
By Patricia Akankwatsa
O
n June 9, a 5-year old boy travelled
from Democratic Republic of Con-
go (DRC) with his mother after
attending a burial of his grandfa-
ther who succumbed to Ebola; the deadly
hemorrhagic fever.
The grandfather was a pastor who lived in
Mabalako Health Zone in Aloya Health Area
about 30 km from Beni in DRC. The mother
was of Congolese origin but married to a
Ugandan and residing in Kasese District in
western Uganda. The Congolese mother had
travelled back to DRC to nurse her father
who had contracted the Ebola virus. Beni
and Kasese are about 20km apart.
The health authorities in Beni identified
12 suspect cases from the same family and
put them in isolation for monitoring. How-
ever, six of the 12 suspect cases escaped and
crossed over to Uganda.
Of the six who crossed to Uganda, four
were children and two adults with 81 con-
tacts in Kasindi and 40 contacts in Mutwan-
ga, areas bordering Uganda in the DRC. One
of the people who crossed over was the wife
of the deceased pastor, grandmother to the
5-year old boy.
The child and his family entered the coun-
try through the market at Mpondwe bypass-
ing the official border post.
But by the next day, June 10, the boy’s
14 June. 21 - 27 2019
health deteriorated and the mother sought
medical care at Kagando Hospital. The child
was vomiting blood, had bloody diarrhea,
muscle pain, headache, fatigue and abdom-
inal pain.
The clinicians immediately suspected
Ebola and transferred him to Bwera where
a sample was collected and shipped to
Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) for
testing. The boy was confirmed positive
for Ebola Zaire on the evening of June 11 and
he died soon after.
On June 12, his 50-year-old grandmother
and three-year-old brother also tested posi-
tive for Ebola Zaire. The grandmother suc-
cumbed to Ebola too. By the time we went to
press, 27 people they came into contact with
had been line listed for follow up.
What is being done?
The crossing of Ebola into Uganda has
raised a number of issues. Some experts say,
with the DRC border where the outbreak
has been raging unabated for about a year,
it was just a matter of time before cases
popped up in Uganda. But others say it
should never have happened. On the inter-
national scene, there is raging debate about
the World Health Organisation (WHO)
response to the Ebola outbreak in DRC.
The WHO Director General, Dr. Tedros
Adhanom, visited Uganda to assess the Ebo-
la situation and met with President Yoweri
Museveni on june 18 at State House Entebbe.
The President assured Dr. Adhanom
Museveni said that his government is deter-
mined to contain Ebola but the DRC must
also deal with the security situation in the
Eastern part of that country.
“The issue of security is one of the con-
tributing factors to the spread of the Ebola
disease,” Museveni told his guest.
The WHO Director revealed that the
efficacy of the Ebola vaccine that was admin-
istered to the people that came in contact
with Ebola victims, stands at 97.8% success
which, he said, is deemed as very good in
combating the threat.
He commended Uganda for always being
prepared to contain Ebola outbreak whenev-
er it crosses from the DRC.
On June 14, WHO once again controver-
sially refused to declare the outbreak which
has killed more than 1400 people, a Public
Health Emergency of International Concern
(PHEIC).
“It was the view of the committee that the
outbreak is a health emergency in the Dem-
ocratic Republic of Congo and the region,
but it does not meet all (the PHEIC) criteria,”
Preben Aavitsland, acting chair of an expert
committee convened by WHO, said at a
press conference in Geneva, Switzerland.
The committee had met for the third time
after news emerged that Ebola had spread to
Uganda and killed two people. Many infec-

tious disease experts and public officials had
expected, and called for, WHO to declare a
PHEIC when Ebola broke out of the DRC
as that would focus global attention and
resources on the crisis.
But who argues that declaring a PHEIC
could be interpreted as the outbreak being a
global emergency, which could be counter-
productive. “As we have seen with previous
Public Health Emergencies of International
Concern, we risk seeing restrictions on travel
and trade, we risk seeing airlines stopping
their flights to the area and we also risk bor-
der closures,” Aavitsland said.
He said all that could hamper public
health efforts in the country which he admit-
ted needs help.
Uganda has been praised for successfully
keeping Ebola at bay until now. According
to the BBC, the WHO is warning that the
world is entering “a new phase” where big
outbreaks of deadly diseases like Ebola are a
“new normal.”
Dr Michael Ryan, the executive director of
the WHO’s health emergencies programme,
told the BBC that the world is “seeing a very
worrying convergence of risks” that are
increasing the dangers of diseases including
Ebola, cholera and yellow fever.
He said climate change, emerging diseas-
es, exploitation of the rainforest, large and
highly mobile populations, weak govern-
ments and conflict were making outbreaks
more likely to occur and more likely to swell
in size once they did.
The Ebola outbreak in the DRC is the sec-
ond biggest ever in the world after outbreak
in West Africa that hit six countries infected
28,616 people and killed 11,310.
Dr Ryan said as of June 07, the WHO
was tracking 160 disease events around the
world and nine were grade three emergen-
cies; the WHO’s highest emergency level.
“I don’t think we’ve ever had a situation
where we’re responding to so many emer-
gencies at one time. This is a new normal, I
don’t expect the frequency of these events to
reduce.”
Many hope the case of the DRC family
was caught quickly enough to avoid farther
spread.
Uganda’s Minister of Health, Ruth Aceng,
says Uganda’s response team has been in
preparation for the last 10 months and is
now in the response phase.
“The Health Ministry is ready to curb the
virus,” she says.
On June 12, the Ministry of Health, WHO,
Center for Disease Control (CDC), the Resi-
dent District Commissioner (RDC) - Kasese
and the Ministry of Health, DRC led by
Gaston Tshapenda held a joint meeting to
discuss the issue.
They resolved that all the unofficial points
of entry would be manned on both Ugan-
dan and DRC sides and information on any
unusual event shared immediately.
At the same meeting, DRC proposed
the repatriation of the five Ebola patients,
including the mother of the deceased 5
year old, his two brothers, father and their
domestic worker. These were successfully
repatriated on June 13.
Uganda health minister says that these
were repatriated in order for them to access
medicines for therapeutic treatment which
are available in the DRC as well receive fam-
ily support.
Uganda’s reaction is informed by the
many times the Ebola virus and other
deadly hemorrhagic fevers have struck the
country. Outbreaks in 2000, 2012 and 2017
have prompted the health ministry to build
capacity.
At the end of May, the government of
Uganda and other key stakeholders invested
over US$18 million in Ebola virus prepared-
ness and readiness at an Accountability
Forum.
The government of Ireland through the
Irish embassy also contributed US$1million
towards the preparedness for Ebola.
“As an embassy that has spent 25 years
in Uganda, we wanted to provide logistical
support and strengthen health and make
sure the medicines are made available to
each and every individual. That is why we
stepped in”, said Aine Doody the head of
cooperation at the embassy of Ireland.
In a precautionary move, the health
ministry has vaccinated some 4,700 health
workers in more than 150 facilities with an
experimental drug designed to protect them
against the virus, which spreads through
contact with bodily fluids of those infected,
causing hemorrhagic fever with severe vom-
iting, diarrhea and bleeding.
The vaccine is experimental but is estimat-
ed to be 97.5% effective and, according to
the WHO, may protect a person for up to 12
months.
The WHO has offered 30 motorcycles and
two multipurpose vehicles to help in surveil-
lance. The Ministry of health is ensuring that
non-gazetted places at borders do thorough
screening.
“We have received 400 doses from the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and
over 4000 doses from WHO which are going
to be used in the ring vaccination of contacts
and heath workers who were at the frontline
unvaccinated,” Aceng said.
Rates of infection
According to the Ministry of Health, there
were three suspected cases of Ebola and over
78 contacts. Of the suspected cases, two test-
ed negative and only one is infected.
However, the ministry warns that the sit-
uation in DRC is scary and Uganda is still at
a high risk of contracting the virus. It is esti-
mated that there are over 2000 Ebola cases
and over 1000 deaths of Ebola in the DRC.
“Each and every person should be alert. I
want the entire nation to observe a no hand-
shaking/body contact phase until we are
NEWS ANALYSIS
Ebola free. I also want to appeal to you all
to always wash your hands with soap or jik
and water”, said Aceng.
Tariq Riebl, the Emergency Response
Director of the International Rescue Com-
mittee in the DRC says although the Ebola
outbreak in the DRC was not declared an
international emergency, the spread of Ebola
to Uganda is a clear signal that the interna-
tional community must reset and redouble
its efforts to work with the Congolese people
and stop the spread of the disease here in the
DRC.
“While Uganda is well prepared to handle
this outbreak in the country, as long as the
disease continues to spread in the DRC, we
will continue to see cases cross international
borders and into neighboring countries”.
Tackling the Ebola outbreak in DRC has
been complicated by conflict in the region -
between January and May there were more
than 40 attacks on health facilities. Another
problem is distrust of healthcare workers
with about a third of deaths being in the
community. It means people are not seeking
treatment and risk spreading the disease to
neighbours and relatives.
About Ebola
Ebola virus was first discovered in 1976
near the Ebola River in what is now the
Democratic Republic of Congo. Since then,
the virus has been infecting people from
time to time, leading to outbreaks in several
African countries. Scientists do not know
where Ebola virus comes from.
However, based on the nature of sim-
ilar viruses, they believe the virus is ani-
mal-borne, with bats being the most likely
source. The bats carrying the virus can trans-
mit it to other animals, like apes, monkeys,
duikers and humans.
Ebola virus spreads to people through
direct contact with bodily fluids of a person
who is sick with or has died from it. This can
occur when a person touches the infected
body fluids (or objects that are contaminated
with them), and the virus gets in through
broken skin or mucus membranes in the
eyes, nose, or mouth. The virus can also
spread to people through direct contact with
the blood, body fluids and tissues of infected
fruit bats or primates. People can get the
virus through sexual contact as well.
Ebola survivors may experience diffi-
cult side effects after their recovery, such
as tiredness, muscle aches, eye and vision
problems and stomach pain. Survivors may
also experience stigma as they re-enter their
communities.
The signs and symptoms include; fever,
severe headache, muscle pain,weakness,
fatigue, diarrhea, vomiting, abdominal
(stomach) pain and unexplained hemor-
rhage(bleeding or bruising).
June. 21 - 27 2019 15
NEWS ANALYSIS
Whenever it rains in Kampala city, chaos ensues.   INDEPENDENT/ALFRED OCHWO
Kampala city’s deadly floods
Why experts now want KCCA to cope with, not fight rain
By Ronald Musoke
F
or hundreds of thousands of
Kampala residents, the onset of
the rain season these days means
suffering, losing property and even
lives and this year’s rainy season has not
been any different.
There is always apprehension and fear
when dark rain clouds twirl above the city
and its suburbs. Commotion ensues as
matatu taxis and bodaboda cyclists and
pedestrians hurry past known flood spots.
Many without better alternatives jostle
for shelter to escape the looming downpour.
Raindrops quickly turn into tropical showers
within minutes and transform into a full-
blown rainstorm triggering floods. Roads
16 June. 21 - 27 2019
become rivers. Unlucky victims caught in its
way become another statistic of flood deaths.
This year, the floods have been
particularly devastating. On May 26 eight
people were killed in a storm. Property
valued in billions was destroyed.
In one photograph which went viral on
social media, a chicken farmer tried to save
hundreds of his chickens by climbing on the
rooftop of his house with them. The farmer
later identified as Richard Kanyike, 63, a
resident of Lufuka zone in Bunamwaya
said he lost over 300 chickens to the floods.
He described how the water, which kept
swelling until it rose to the window level of
his chicken house, overwhelmed him.
Kampala sits on the northern shores of
Lake Victoria, the world’s largest tropical
lake which contributes a lot of the rainfall
the city receives throughout the year. It is
a city of wetlands; Lufuka, Kansanga, and
Nakivubo wetlands in its southeasterly
division of Makindye. Mayanja, Lubigi,
Nabisasiro, Nasere in Kawempe division,
and Nakalere, Nalubaga, Walufumbe and
Kinawataka in Nakawa Division. These are
the main ones. But almost every part of the
city has its own wet pan where storm water
gathers to wreak havoc.
This year, so far, it is the Kikajjo, Lubowa
and Lufuka areas that have been hardest hit.
They are in the Kyetinda flood area; a basin
estimated to be about 1.4 square kilometres
between Lufuka and Kansanga wetlands.
Without floods, these would be prime real
estate as it is between the Kampala-Entebbe

highway and the Lake Victoria hind end
zone of top beaches and hotels; including the
Munyonyo Commonwealth Resort.
But the plight of residents is now a result
of a mix of the same things that make other
areas flood prone. Stated plainly, nobody
should be living in these areas because they
lie directly in the path of storm waters from
higher lying areas of Makindye, Nsambya,
Buziga, and more.
In the past, the storm water could flow
smoothly into Lake Victoria through the
Munyonyo wetlands. Today, as the city
population has swollen to over 1.8 million,
construction pressure has blocked most of
the natural water drainage routes and no
drainage channels have been constructed to
replace them. The result is that even the least
amount of rain now causes floods.
Godfrey Mujuni, the manager Data Centre
at the Uganda National Meteorological
Authority told The Independent on June 13
that most of the rain the city receives is
moderate when compared to other flood-
prone cities around the world. It should not
be causing deadly floods.
Mujuni said, for example, although
Kampala received a lot of rain over the
month of May, the rains do not differ
in significance when compared to past
seasons.
“What we have noticed is the intensity,”
Mujuni told The Independent. “A lot of rain
falling these days occurs in a shorter period
of time.”
He said the limited drainage channels fail
to cope with the run-off which is too much
in a short period.
Mujuni told The Independent that it is in
the second Dekad—period of 10 days—
(May 10-20) that Kampala received the most
rain. It rained on eight out of the ten days.
On May 11, Kampala recorded 37.5mm
of rainfall. The following day, May 12, the
weather experts recorded 22.8mm, on May
13, they recorded a trace (drizzle); on May
14, they recorded 18.8mm, while over the
next five days, UNMA recorded 2.5mm,
2.8mm, 3.5mm, 21.3mm and 7.8mm,
respectively.
Mujuni says rains become hazardous
when an area registers above 50mm. So
what has been happening in Kampala
where the weather experts have been
registering rains of below 40mm?
Mujuni says rains measuring 37.5mm
would not normally cause havoc, especially
if the rain is spread over a long period— say
over 24-hours. But, if the same rains fall
for just one hour, these could create havoc
because of intensity.
On the deadly May 26, the day the floods
caused havoc, the meteorology department
registered just 2mm of rainfall over
Kampala. But the previous day, more rain
(19.1mm) had fallen over the city, and the
day before that, another 8.2mm of rainfall
had been registered. So the rains which fell
on May 26 soaked the ground until it could
take no more.
Collins Oloya, the commissioner for
wetlands management in the Ministry of
Water and Environment says the floods
ravaging Kampala are as a result of the
continuous disregard of the environmental
laws.
Oloya told The Independent that the people
who planned Kampala originally built it
on seven hills because they appreciated the
function of the wetlands but these have been
completely destroyed.
“Now KCCA needs a lot of money to
control floods—a function which was being
done by wetlands at a much low cost.”
Big budget needed
On April 4, KCCA’s top executives
presented a budget of US$208 million
(over Shs700 billion) to implement a 2017
drainage master plan that intends to fix 10
flood-prone areas in Kampala including;
Lubigi, Nakivubo, Kinawataka, Kansanga,
Nalukolongo, Ggaba, Walufumbe, and
Mayanja.
KCCA’s drainage master plan seeks to
control storm water by encouraging rain
NEWS ANALYSIS
water harvesting, creating “rain gardens,”
green parks and open gardens, detention
ponds, retention basins and associated
wetlands.
In some of KCCA’s planned drainage
projects, the Lubigi Channel which stretches
a distance of about 3km from Bwaise to
Hoima Road will be expanded again in some
sections to about 40 metres while in other
sections it will be as wide as 100 metres.
The Lubigi Channel is one of Kampala
city’s major channels that evacuate storm
water out of the city when it rains. It forms
an arc around the city, starting around
Kisaasi in the north of the city and then
stretches westwards passing Bwaise and
Kawaala, then turns southwards through
Busega.
The channel has feeder arms that stretch
along the Kampala–Mityana Road towards
Buloba, along Kampala–Masaka Road
towards Kyengera, along Kampala-Hoima
Road towards Nansana and along the
Mengo-Sentema stretch.
KCCA officials say the new drainage
master plan intends to integrate the natural
environment and infrastructure into a
cohesive city-wide strategy for drainage
development that minimizes the impact
of flooding. But some experts argue that
KCCA’s planned intervention will once
again prove inadequate.
Bashir Twesigye, the executive director
of Civic Response on Environment and
Development (CRED), a Kampala-based
non-profit told The Independent that the
biggest challenge in Kampala is human
encroachment on environmental resources
like swamps that needs to be fixed.
Other experts also say Kampala’s
persistent floods are a result of inadequate
sensitization of the public, unplanned
settlements and poor enforcement
mechanisms and the mindset of the
residents who continue to arbitrarily litter
garbage.
Dr. Godfrey Mwesige, a lecturer in the
Department of Construction Economics
and Management at Makerere University’s
College of Engineering, Design, Art and
Technology told The Independent on June
14 in an email that Kampala’s drainage
channels do not only carry storm water but
also silt and garbage which constantly blocks
the channels.
He said there has been severe
encroachment, reducing the effective
primary channel widths to accommodate
storm water discharges after a sustained
storm. These constrictions act like mini
dams, creating the observed floods on
the upstream because storm water is not
being discharged at the same rate it is being
generated.
Mwesige told The Independent that in
order to solve this problem, there is need for
Government intervention to relocate persons
along the primary channels and swamps.
June. 21 - 27 2019 17
news analysis
Jude Tadeieus Kyobe, a roads engineer
at the Uganda National Roads Authority
(UNRA) told The Independent on June 14
that when UNRA was planning to construct
the Kampala Northern Bypass road which
touches the Lubigi wetland, the authority
did a comprehensive drainage study of the
entire catchment.
The study found that drainage problems
along the Northern Bypass were caused by
two major issues and both were man-made;
unplanned and uncontrolled construction
within the waterway and dumping garbage
within the drainage channels causing
blockage.
Kyobe says the Lubigi channel is heavily
clogged from Hoima road downstream of
the channel. This means the storm water
from the elevated areas of Makerere,
Nakulabye, Nalukolongo, Kigaga -Rubaga,
and even Kyebando, Kawaala is constrained
and forced to flow backwards into the
upstream zones where it comes from. This is
what causes floods.
The UNRA study, Kyobe says
recommended numerous interventions to
tackle the drainage problem along the road
corridor. Among the interventions was
the construction of high capacity drainage
structures as well as replacing existing ones
with larger ones.
“The constructed structures include
several box culverts at Sentema North,
Namungoona round about, Kalerwe and
Kyebando.” But this is not enough, Kyobe
adds. UNRA intends to engage a contractor
to continuously desilt and rid the channel
of garbage; especially following heavy
downpours.
Dr. Amin Tamale Kiggundu of the
Department of Architecture and Physical
Planning at Makerere University agrees
that Kampala city needs to invest in
infrastructure to manage Kampala’s
floods. The design and construction and
interconnectivity of drains need to be
improved to avoid clogging and blockage.
However, Kiggundu also quickly notes
that the city authority’s failure to decisively
deal with floods is due to the fact that it
lacks enough resources. He is advocating
new sourcing models to overcome the cash
squeeze.
“There is a lot of dependence on the
central government and donors and this is
not sustainable,” Kiggundu says.
He told The Independent that Kampala
probably needs to consider public-
private partnerships to solve some of its
infrastructure challenges and insists KCCA
needs to learn from other cities that tend to
flood.
The new financing models Kiggundu is
pushing for are similar to global expert Prof.
Paul Collier, the director of the International
Growth Centre recommended to KCCA in
2016.
While giving a lecture titled, “What
18 June. 21 - 27 2019
Policies would make Kampala a Great 21st
Century City?” hosted by Bank of Uganda
and KCCA, Collier said development of
the city should be undertaken largely by the
private sector.
Kiggundu also told The Independent that
KCCA needs to start thinking about city
residents, especially property owners,
shouldering some of Kampala’s funding
burden.
“Having property in a livable
neighbourhood means the owners’ property
gaining value,” he said.
Andrew Kitaka, KCCA ED
Beti Kamya, Minister for Kampala
Cities and floods
Kampala is not the only city grappling
with flooding. Abnormal rainfall in 2017
caused unusual floods in Mumbai, Dhaka,
and Kathmandu in South Asia killing at least
1,200 people. Planners in these and many
other cities are trying to respond on how to
cope.
In a 2014 paper titled, “Making Cities
more resilient to flooding,” Michael
Hammond, a research fellow at the
University of Exeter’s Centre for Water
Systems noted that flooding in urban areas is
a partially pressing problem in cities because
they are highly concentrated centres of
human and economic activity.
Hammond said cities have tended to
respond reactively to floods, and have relied
on purely structural solutions to increase
flood protection such as constructing higher
dikes and larger drainage systems but they
have found that it is not possible to provide
absolute protection to city dwellers through
structural mitigation measures.
Instead, a new model has evolved
known as “flood resilience,” which aims
at improving the way cities and its citizens
cope with flooding; rather than fighting
floods. Hammond gives the example of the
flood-prone Spanish city of Barcelona which
has embedded the principle of robustness in
its urban drainage system.
“It has installed underground storage
tanks with gates which can be controlled
in real-time,” he said, “Rainfall forecasting
systems are also being improved so that
emergency services and citizens have the
information they need to prepare and
respond.”
Such planning is in line with what
Amanda Ngabirano, a lecturer of urban
and regional planning in the Department
of Architecture and Physical Planning at
Makerere University, wants. She told The
Independent on June 06 that “floods are about
water management and water management
is about planning.”
“If we don’t plan, we plan to fail. We have
failed with water and flooding in Kampala,”
Ngabirano told The Independent.
“We must invest in a comprehensive
master plan for the city, prioritize its
implementation, and get rid of some
structural developments in some
environmentally sensitive areas.”
“Even if our population still requires
sensitization and attitude change, it is
the public sector expected to initiate such
programmes, which should run over a
long period of time,” Ngabirano told The
Independent.
She says Kampala’s floods are not all
about drainage channels, but a complete city
set-up and land use pattern, based on a plan.
Mujuni agrees. He says Kampala too
needs to change the way it does its things.
“We need to strengthen the enforcement
mechanism to protect the remaining
wetlands besides improving the tree cover
around Kampala.”
Mujuni added: “It is high time Kampala
did an upgrade of its only weather station at
Makerere University.”
He says Kampala’s economic importance
needs special attention and the government
could help by investing in a better weather
station network for the city.
“Each of Kampala’s five divisions needs
to have a modern weather station so that the
meteorologists can understand the rainfall
patterns of each of these divisions,” Mujuni
said, “You find that sometimes what
happens in Kawempe may not necessarily
happen in Rubaga or Nakawa.”

Andrew Mwenda in March stands in front of buildings of Japan’s oldest surviving private company, Kongo Gumi Co. Ltd in
Osaka, which since 578 AD has done carpentry for the imperial palace, Shinto shrines and Buddhist temples.
The rise of Japan
What made this country transform rapidly from a backward
agrarian society into a modern industrial power
By Andrew M. Mwenda
H
ow did Japan, a poor and econom-
ically “backward” country rapidly
transform into a modern industry
power a few years after its initial
contact with the West? I promised to address
this question last week. Japan opened up
to the outside world in 1868 during what
is called the Meiji Restoration. By 1895, i.e.
within 25 years, it had become one of the
leading global powers alongside Russia,
France, UK, Austria, Prussia and USA. In
1905, it crushed the Russian navy in a deci-
sive battle, becoming the first non-European
country ever to defeat a major European
power.
Japan’s rapid ascent on the ladder of
global powers is even the more intriguing
because it’s neighbors like China and Korea,
upon their initial contact with the West, did
not react as quickly and decisively in acquir-
ing Western technology and in rapidly trans-
forming their institutions to cope with this
external threat. Instead Japan was later to
colonise both. Of course Korea (its southern
part) was later to rapidly transform just as
China is doing today.
For many analysts, the reasons for Japan’s
rapid ascent are located in the culture of its
people – their shared norms, values, habits
and mentalities. Cultural theorists, therefore,
point to the tendency among Japanese to
be obedient to authority, loyal to superiors,
punctuality, dedication to assigned tasks,
and speed of execution of duties etc., factors
that ensure high productivity of labour. It is
difficult to know what is cause and what is
effect: are Japanese developed because they
act quickly and efficiently to tasks or do they
act quickly and effectively to tasks because
they are developed? I will return to this sub-
ject later in this article with some evidence.
I suspect that countries develop largely
based on their initial factor endowments.
For many early economists, these factor
endowments meant natural resources. This
seems to be the major explanation for the
high levels of income attained by countries
in the Arabian Gulf such as Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. How-
ever, Japan has little or no natural resources.
Its most important asset has been its human
capital: the skills (administrative, entrepre-
news analysis
neurial, technical and managerial) of its
people backed by high levels of institutional
capacity, openness to new ideas, trust and
solidarity within the community and obedi-
ence to superiors.
We should note, however, that by the
time of her exposure to the Western world,
Japan was a much more sophisticated soci-
ety compared, for example, to our societies
in pre-colonial Africa. Take the example of
the most modern of Western social “inven-
tions”, the company. Japan had the idea
of a private company 1,300 years ago. The
oldest surviving Japanese private company
is Kongo Gumi. It was founded in 578 AD
(after Christ) or CE (Common Era). It used to
do carpentry for the imperial palace, Shinto
shrines and Buddhist temples. I visited this
company in Tokyo in March and it is still in
business to this day.
For centuries there had been business
conglomerates in Japan. A 2010 study by
Koreans said there are 5,500 companies
in the world today, which have been in
business for more than 300 years. Of these
about 3,000 are found in Japan. Therefore
the foundations of capitalism were already
June. 21 - 27 2019 19
news analysis

EXHIBITS OF
EARLY JAPANESE
TECHONOLOGICAL
INVENTION
1. Hour glass clock
2. Tea serving Robot
3. Microwave
4. Television
5. Mainframe Computer

20 June. 21 - 27 2019

in existence in Japan long before it’s opening
up to trade with the West. This is an import-
ant early endowment Japanese society had
long before interaction with the West. West-
ern capitalism brought continuous technical
innovation and modern management to
Japan. It found a fertile ground because the
most important conditions for capitalist
development were already in existence.   even worked with other samurai families to
Take the example of Toshiba, one of the
companies I visited while in Japan. It was
formed in 1875, exactly seven years after the
Meiji Restoration, when the Tokagawa fam-
ily handed power back to the emperor and
Japan opened itself to trade with the West.
Toshiba did collaboration work with Thom-
as Edison in the lighting bulb business, then
worked on telegraph machines, washing
machines, telephones, refrigerators, televi-
sions, cookers, etc. It is the oldest electronic
appliances company in Japan.  equivalent of university education!  endowed with neither great acuteness of
At the Toshiba museum, I was shown
the first Japanese attempts at a robot more
than 200 years ago. It is a teacup-carrying
doll. This was later to inform the technol-
ogy for clocks. The clock at the Toshiba
museum was made in 1851. It can work for
about one year after they have rewound its
springs. Tanaka, one of the founders of what
later became Toshiba, used to invent things
when he was a kid, like mechanical doors.
Japan made her first electric lamp in 1878
by Ichusuke Fujioka. Then in 1884 he visited
the USA and met Thomas Edison and learnt
how to make modern light bulbs. In 1890 he
designed Japan’s first electric elevator.  This brings me back to cultural theories of
Upon its opening up, Japan paid western
countries for teachers to teach its people
western technology. In 1890 the Japanese
built their first train by themselves. How-
ever most of the parts were imported: the
locomotive was from England, the wagons
from the USA. But the company that built
it was Japanese, the very process Ugandans
who despise Kiira car now denounce and
despise. It seems, therefore, that there was
diffusion of technology in Japanese society;
its interaction with the West only sharpened
it.
However, all these developments took
place within a specific political context.
Before the Meiji Restoration in 1868, Japan
had had nearly 300 years of peace and stabil-
ity. During this period (1606 to 1868) under
the leadership of the Tokagawa family,
Japan was integrated into one nation by cre-
ating one central authority under the lead-
ership of the Shogun (military ruler). Under
this shogunate, the emperor reigned but did
not rule; he lived in the imperial capital of
Kyoto (east city) while the Tokagawa shifted
the administrative capital to Tokyo (west
city). I suspect having a unified national cul-
ture is an important asset in development.
Then the USA navy under commodore
Mathew Perry came to Japan and forced
them to open up. There were also the Brit-
ish and the French seeking to enter Japan.
Seeing the threat of external invasion and
conquest, the Tokagawa family realised they
could not handle this foreign intrusion and
its possible implications. It, therefore, trans-
ferred power back to the royal family. The
emperor decided to open Japan to trade with
the West. The emperor did not have absolute
power but acted as the British monarch and
govern.  garments of the most inept kind…”
The Japan that opened up to the West for
trade was not only advanced in technology,
it had a highly literate population. This was
largely because education is a highly valued
thing in Japan. Even under the Tokagawa
Japan was a highly literate society, indeed
more literate than western countries even
for its women. This made modernization
easier! In those old days, Japanese used to
study writing and calculation. There was the
Secondly under the shogunate, many
samurai (soldiers) had grown businesses
over very many years! There had been, in
some way, the development of capitalism.
Its major (but not only) weakness was lim-
ited access to western technology and mar-
kets. Japan also had a centralised bureaucra-
cy based on meritocratic recruitment long
before western influence or before the West
itself adopted it. The system was open to
everyone as it allowed anyone to climb the
social ladder regardless of background. Any
kid regarded talented and was ambitious
could progress to the top.  causes of that backwardness. As societies
development. For many cultural theorists,
Japanese culture with its penchant for punc-
tuality, hard work, speed, honesty, trust and
diligence is the main explanation behind
its rapid development. Yet one wonders
whether things like hard work and punctu-
ality (which increase labour productivity)
are causes or consequences of development.
To understand the weakness in these cul-
tural explanations, we need to look at the
impressions Europeans travelers had of the
Japanese.
In his book, Bad Samaritans, Ha-Joon
Chung, a South Korean economist at Cam-
bridge, has a host of stories to tell about this.
In 1905, an Australian management consul-
tant who had been invited by the Japanese
government told its bureaucrats: to see your
men at work made me feel that you are a
very satisfied easy-going race who reckon
time is no object.” Sidney Gulick was an
American missionary who lived in Japan for
25 years from 1888 to 1913. He spoke fluent
Japanese, even teaching in Japanese univer-
sities.
In his 1903 book, The Evolution of the
Japanese, Gulick said that many Japanese
“give an impression of being lazy and are
utterly indifferent to the passage of time”.
Interestingly, he also found them “emotion-
al, possessing lightness of heart and freedom
from all anxiety for the future – living chiefly
news analysis
for the present.”
Beatrice Webb, a leader of British Fabian
socialism, after her tour of Japan in 1911-12
described the Japanese as having “objection-
able notions of leisure” and that “there is
evidently no desire to teach people to think.”
She described Koreans as “12 millions of
dirty, degraded, sullen, lazy and religionless
savages who slouch around in dirty white
Yet these stereotypes, Ha tells us, were
not only about other peoples. Europeans
traveling through Prussia used to describe
Germans in the same way. Mary Shelley, a
Briton, said of the Germans that they were
never in hurry. A French manufacturer who
hired Germans complained that they work
“as and when they wish.” John Russell, a
British travel writer of the 1820s said the
Germans were “easily contented people…
perception nor quickness of feeling.” He felt
they were not open to new ideas. Now look
at the Germans today.
If one has read the writings of Timothy
Kalyegira about Africans today, he would be
struck by how much this Ugandan journalist
has borrowed from 19th Century European
stereotypes of other societies. The point is
that cultural explanations can be misleading
predictors of a nation’s future trajectory. A
lot of the observations of laziness as opposed
to hard work are mere references to charac-
teristics of a backward society rather than
move from agriculture to industry, a sense
of time begins to be cultivated in a people’s
social consciousness. Punctuality is, there-
fore, a consequence not a cause of develop-
ment – and the lack of it an impediment to
development.
One important thing is that Japan did not
have any religious fundamentalism. During
the Tokagawa period Christianity had been
banned! There was Buddhism but Japanese
Buddhism is very secular. So Japan was a
secular society. But does this explain her
rapid adoption of Western technology? Max
Weber had argued that the protestant ethic
was responsible for the raise of capitalism.
However, when the catholic nations of Por-
tugal, Spain and Italy rapidly industrialised,
this argument lost a lot of its shine.
Cultural theorists have argued that
Korean and Chinese culture was built on
Confucian fundamentalism, which said
making profit is a bad thing! Japan did not
have this anti-money making belief. If you
made money it was good and fun! However,
Christianity also used to teach that making
money for its own sake is a sin of avarice
and lending money on interest was a sin
called usury. As time has shown, neither
these Christian teachings, nor the Confucian
fundamentalist teachings in Korea and
China have stopped the development of
capitalism in these countries.
June. 21 - 27 2019 21
How you will benefit from
the 2019/2020 budget
It is pro-growth, pro-poor; what is important
is pushing for its effective implementation
O
By Julius Businge
n June 13, Minister for
Finance, Planning and
Economic Development,
Matia Kasaija, delivered the
Shs40trillion National Bud-
get for the Financial Year
2019/2020 under the theme “Industrializa-
tion for job creation and shared prosperity.”
The new Financial Year, take effect on July
01, and The Independent has picked oppor-
tunities that the new budget presents to its
citizens in various sectors.
Access to credit
Financial experts have always argued that
access to affordable finance is an important
catalyst for the growth of viable private sec-
tor enterprises and job creation.
Now, borrowers will have a chance to
access Shs103.5bn that the government has
allocated to Uganda Development Bank. In
addition, to support private companies raise
equity capital, the Capital Markets Authority
will establish a center to facilitate access to
long term domestic and foreign capital on
the stock exchange.
Kasaija said the government is also pro-
viding an additional Shs40 billion to the
Microfinance Support Centre for lending to
small businesses at affordable interest rates,
not exceeding 12% per annum.
To the youth and women entrepreneurs,
the government hopes to continue imple-
menting special programmes to enhance
their access to credit. The Skills Programme
for Youth and the Uganda Women’s Entre-
22 June. 21 - 27 2019
preneurship Programme has been allocated
Shs130billion and Shs32 billion respectively.
Financial sector reforms including agency
banking, bancassurance, Islamic banking,
and enhanced access to Credit Reference
Bureau services, will reduce operational
costs of commercial banks.
There are also opportunities related to
supply of inputs to the new 87 factories that
are under construction and the 120 that are
at pre-investment stage.
The government is also committed to
developing several industrial parks by pro-
viding basic infrastructure including roads,
electricity, water and information technology
and communications infrastructure.
Fourteen other Free Zones to promote
exports have also been licensed in Arua, Jin-
ja; Kalungu, Mpigi, Mukono, Wakiso, Toro-
ro, Kampala, and Buikwe.
Speeding up industrialisation
Kasaija said in the budget speech that
the government is fast-tracking feasibility
studies, including engineering designs, for
all the proposed industrial parks, developing
service industrial parks and workspaces,
reforming technical and vocational edu-
cation and training to provide the skills
required in the job market.
In addition, establishing the industrial
skills production center at Kampala Indus-
trial Area (Namanve) to provide skills
development, innovation and knowledge
transfer critical for researchers, industrialists,
innovators and youth in particular will be
prioritised. The center will also address tech-
nology gaps while boosting value addition.
Farmers around Soroti will benefit from
the additional Shs10billion allocated to the
Soroti Fruit Factory as working capital to
purchase required raw materials.
For investors, Kasaija announced a reduc-
tion in the minimum investment threshold
that allows developers of free zones and
industrial parks to be eligible for tax incen-
tive from $100million to $50million.
He announced plans to reduce the mini-
mum investment threshold that allows oper-
ators within industrial parks to be eligible
for tax incentives to $10million for foreigners
and $1million for local investors.
To further support this sector, Kasaija said
the provision of Shs428billion next financial
year for electrification of industrial parks
(Shs.147billion), the development of support-
ive export infrastructure in export processing
zones and industrial parks (Shs103 Billion)
and science technology and innovation
(Shs178 billion).
Agriculture sector
The new budget is targeting increased
output of food in addition to creating more
opportunities. Kasaija said construction
of the major irrigation schemes have pro-
gressed and are at different stages of com-
pletion- Doho II in Butaleja (48.6%); Mubuku
II in Kasese (22.5%); Wadelai in Nebbi Dis-
trict (18.2%); Torchi in Oyam District (57%);
Ngenge in Kween District (54.1%) and
Rwengaaju in Kabarole district (50%).
The government will further support
commercialisation of agriculture through
provision of storage facilities and linking
farmers to agro-processing facilities to sup-
 business
port agro-industrialisation. Revenue projections
Post-harvest facilities will be built in Graphical presentation Shs40.4trillion Resource
Bunyangabu, Kibuku, Kumi, Kyenjojo,
of most important
envelope
Ntoroko and Nakaseke districts. Delivery
of quality inputs and services including
seed and planting materials, mechanisation,
issues in the budget Shs20.4trillion Domestic revenue projections

Shs18.8trillion
fertilizer, agricultural credit and extension Tax revenues
services are being targeted.
Shs.1.5trillion Non-Tax revenues
Tourism opportunities Sector allocations
The government plans to do aggressive
marketing of Uganda’s tourism in key mar-
kets like South Asia and Europe. It will also
do tourist product development related to
religious, historical, cultural, natural heritage
and agro-tourism institutions. Shs1tn Shs193.7bn Shs6.4tn Shs3tn Shs146.2bn Shs3.4 tn Shs2.6tn Shs1.1 tn
Government will also reduce the min- Agriculture Tourism Works and Energy ICT Education Health Water
imum investment thresholds that allow Transport
investors in hotels and tourist operators to be Analysts eye on improving budget performance
eligible for tax incentives from $15million to
$10million. Effective Avoid Motivate
Deal implementation excessive public
Fight with low and proper or servants
Transport infrastructure corruption absorption monitoring of unplanned through salary
Kasaija said in the New Year, the target for of funds projects expenditure enhancements
completion of paved roads is 6,000 km. He
said rural roads connectivity and low-cost Avoid Transparency Cash
Pay government Procurement
sealing of district roads will be prioritised. politicisation in suppliers management
Road maintenance and rehabilitation of dis- controls
of the budget implementation and treasury
trict, urban and community access roads and single account
national roads will be undertaken.
The rehabilitation of the national airport, Timely
Proper debt Control and Build Audit
the meter gauge railway in the short-term
monitoring of disbursement budget
and the revamping of water transport facil- management of funds to capacity for
revenues URA implementation
ities will be prioritised. The construction of spending
the Kabaale International Airport in Hoima- entities
District, and the operationalisation of the
Uganda National Airline, and the acquisition complete and the Nakivubo stadium is also reinforce other tax reforms like digital
of two more Bombardier regional aircrafts undergoing reconstruction. tax stamps. He added that income derived
have been prioritised. from leasing or letting facilities in industrial
In order to enhance access to tourism sites, Minerals sector parks has been exempted from income tax
an additional Shs57.8billion has been provid- This is another opportunity that the new for 10 years from the date of commencement
ed to UNRA to embark on the South-West- budget intends to provide. Kasaija said of construction.
tourism circuit. In addition, support will be the government will conduct the airborne Withholding tax on long term bonds has
provided for rehabilitation of aerodromes to geophysical survey of Karamoja region. It been reduced from 20% to 10% to encourage
facilitate domestic flights. will also work on the divestiture of Kilembe investment in long term government secu-
Mines on a fast-track basis with an empha- rities but at the same time reduce financing
Energy infrastructure sis on prospective investors with capacity costs to government.
To further support economic activities, to carry out further exploration, following The stamp duty act was amended to
the government plans to have more pow- repossession by government from the pre- provide for a uniform stamp duty payable
er production. The lined up projects are; vious investor. It also plans to fast track the on bank guarantees, insurance performance
Ayago(840MW), the Oriang (392MW), the exploration of the 18 priority mineral target bonds, indemnity bonds and similar debt
Kiba (330MW) and the Uhuru (600MW) areas for rare earth, and metallic minerals to instruments in order to reduce the cost of
hydropower projects will be developed in a level of certified mineral resource as well debt financing and ease tax compliance and
the medium to long term inpartnership with as carryout a review of the licensing rules administration.
the private sector. and regulations to eliminate speculative and There is also going to be VAT exemption
non-performing licenses. on agro-processing, rice mills and agricultur-
ICTs and sports Oil and gas development is also on top of al sprayers. In order to promote investment
The government plans to extend the the government’s agenda. and industrialisation, import tariffs on prod-
National Backbone Infrastructure for ICT to Implementing all these initiatives, Kasaija ucts which are locally manufactured have
cover all districts. This plan will reduce inter- says the government hopes to create a solid been increased.
net costs through the implementation of the base for the economy while creating jobs. The government also plans to purchase
new national broadband policy. The policy and deploy scanners at major ports of entry
will compel telecommunication companies Matters tax into Uganda to facilitate faster clearance of
to provide services to people countrywide. The minister reported that excise duty act goods and curb mis-declaration.
This will enhance improved service delivery was amended to provide for registration of Going forward, critics, however, say
both in Government and the private sector. manufacturers, importers and providers of Uganda’s budget has over the years
In sports, the construction of the national excisable goods and services. appeared to be very good on paper but its
high altitude centre in Kapchorwa is 68% Going into the New Year, he said, this will implementation is the problem.

June. 21 - 27 2019 23
business
Migrant remittances
to hit US$550bn
Over 200 million migrant workers around the world send home billions of dollars every year.
By Ronald Musoke
M
oney sent home by migrant
workers from abroad across the
globe is projected to record a
4% growth this year, hitting the
US$550bn mark compared with US$529bn
recorded in 2018, according to the latest
statistics from the International Fund for
Agricultural Development (IFAD).
Remittances take many forms but are
usually associated with working migrants
that send regular amounts to support their
families and communities back home.
One in every nine people around the
world is directly supported by remittances,
according to IFAD, the UN agency that
invests in rural people, empowers them
to reduce poverty, increases food security,
nutrition and strengthens resilience.
Speaking in Rome on June 14 ahead of
celebrations to mark the International Day
of Family Remittances on June 16, Gilbert
Houngbo, the President of IFAD said
money sent home by the world’s 200 million
migrant workers is now three times more
than that received in official development
assistance.
“Behind the numbers are the individual
remittances of US$200 or US$300 that
migrants send home regularly so that their
800 million family members can meet
immediate needs and build a better future
back home,” he said.
With half of all flows going to rural areas
in developing countries, governments,
regulators and the private sector have an
important role to play in leveraging the
effects of these flows and, in so doing,
helping nearly one billion people to reach
24 June. 21 - 27 2019
their own sustainable development goals by
2030, said Houngbo.
In 2016, the United Nations designated
June 16 as the “International Day of
Family Remittances,” to raise awareness
on the transformative impact that migrant
remittances have across the Sustainable
Development Goals—particularly poverty
reduction and access to basic services at the
household level.
This amount of cash which also surpasses
foreign direct investment, Houngbo said,
was an impressive figure given that it is just
15% of the total migrant workers’ earnings—
the rest remains in the host countries’
economies.
Experts say if current trends continue,
it is projected that US $8.5 trillion will
be transferred to families in developing
countries over the 15-year life of the UN’s
2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
By then, it is estimated that over US $2
trillion (on average 25% of remittances
received) will have been saved or invested.
The advantage of these payments is that
they usually flow directly into the hands
of households, which increases household
income and reduces the likelihood of
households falling into poverty.
This monetary support has positive effects
on both education and health outcomes and
it has been shown to support human capital
development particularly in children.
Many governments including Uganda
now recognise the crucial contribution of
migrant workers. It is among the top five
recipient African countries of money from
people living abroad. An April 2018 World
Bank report on migration and remittances
noted that the country received up to US$
1.4bn which was almost the same amount as
that from the tourism sector.
In fact, the World Bank and Bank of
Uganda reports say Ugandan citizens in
the diaspora have been sending home over
a billion dollars over the last three years.
In 2017, Ugandans in the diaspora sent
home US $1.4 billion though that figure
fell slightly to US$ 1.312 billion in the
subsequent year.
Catherine Wines, the co-founder of
WorldRemit, a London-based digital money
transfer told The Observer on the sidelines
of a financial inclusion summit in Kampala
last year that their platform had registered
immense growth in money transfer to
Uganda, recording a 150% growth in the
last three years.
“Remittances have supported families for
their basic needs like food, rent, school fees
and hospital bills but, what we are seeing
is that for extended families or people
who have been away for longer, they help
families set up small businesses,” said
Wines.
In November, last year, WorldRemit
registered 1.5 million transactions sent to
Uganda since it launched its service in 2012.
The company’s rapid growth in Uganda has
been driven by transfers to mobile money
accounts which have grown by over 150% in
the last two years.
World Remit’s mobile-to-mobile model
supports Uganda’s efforts, to promote
financial inclusion as 90% of the recipients
in rural areas receive their transfers directly
onto their phones.
But linking the cash flows with financial
services and, in the process, bringing
millions of people into the financial sector,
remains a challenge for many governments.
For the UN’s 2030 remittance targets to
happen, Marina Manke, the head of the UN
International Organization for Migration’s
labour mobility and human development
division, said there is continued need for
cost reduction, increased transparency
and ensuring that migrants’ equal access
to financial education and empowerment
including those offered by digitalization and
other new forms of finance.
Paul Winters, IFAD’s Associate
Vice-President told a forum at the UN
headquarters in New York on June 16 that
providing better access to remittances and
better use to families through rural financial
institutions has had a positive impact in
rural areas by bringing many unbanked
recipients into the formal financial sector.
“Thanks to this inclusive effect, families
can now collaterize remittances and access
financial products, such as savings, credit,
and insurance,” he added, “In fact, it is fair
to say that, in poor rural areas, remittances
can help to make migration a choice rather
than a necessity for so many young people
and for future generations.”

Money Talk symposium
NSSF, experts tell members to save
beyond the 5% they remit monthly
By Julius Businge
D
o you spend less and invest more
of your income a head of your
retirement? Will you have enough
monetary resources upon retire-
ment? Will there be any impact upon taking
your retirement benefits?
These questions are among the highlights
of the recent NSSF Money Talk symposium
that was held at the Kampala Serena Hotel
on June 10.
The NSSF Managing Director, Richard
Byarugaba, told an estimated 900 mem-
bers that “It has become increasingly clear,
demonstrated by research, that for NSSF
members to sustainably benefit from their
savings, they must plan and seek expert
advice to avoid loss of their life savings
because of poor decision-making.”
He said it is on this basis that the pension
fund has introduced a comprehensive finan-
cial literacy program – the first ever annual
investment and wealth management sympo-
sium – that will be used as an avenue to urge
members to save more, wisely.
“It is important to consume less and invest
the balance,” Byarugaba said. “Don’t consult
your family members or relatives; consult
investment experts.”
The symposium aimed at encouraging the
members to save beyond the 5% that NSSF
takes from them every month so as to avoid
expensive commercial bank loans in future.
Participants that The Independent spoke to
said they learnt a lot though were not told
on how to deal with the many competing
priorities.
“I have learned a lot about saving. What
they did not tell us is how to deal with the
many responsibilities that take most of the
money we earn monthly,” said a one Geof-
frey.
“But what I can say is that, the speakers
were good on telling us the value of sav-
ing and if I get the opportunity I will save
more.”
“I have listened about the value of saving
and realised that I am not doing enough. I
will do more with my 95% earning that does
not go to NSSF,” another participant identi-
fied as Olivier, said.
Byarugaba said that on average the Fund
pays out Shs15million to each member at
retirement – a figure he said is small – and
calls for more saving beyond the mandatory
NSSF percentage.
He added that on average each member
of the Fund holds Shs50million on their
account which he said is small for one to
make meaningful investment after retiring.
Fund’s latest survey
The symposium comes a few months
after the Fund carried out a survey which
showed that out of the 402 respondents that
business
were interviewed, 53% of them were found
unable to sustain their saving for a year
upon receipt.
In addition, 98% of the respondents had
no cash left as at the end of first year and that
most of the retirees were investing either in
real estate or improving their homes.
Michael Mugabi, the managing director of
the Housing Finance Bank said it is now pos-
sible for prospective home owners to own
homes through mortgages, with a Shs1mil-
lion monthly repayment period.
He said 61% of the working class people
live in rented houses and that 90% of house-
holds live in a rented apartment for up to
three years and then shift yet the amount
of rent they meet monthly can enable them
own houses through mortgages.
Aeko Ongodia, the founder and chief
executive officer at Xeno Technologies, an
investment advisory firm, said NSSF mem-
bers need to seek expert advice prior to
making investments in areas of real estate,
government treasury bills and bonds, in
equities and or companies listed on the stock
exchange to avoid making losses and living
a miserable life after retirement.
As at June 10, Byarugaba said, the Fund
has Shs11.4trillion as asset base with a total
of two million customers. However, only
800,000 members are active.
June. 21 - 27 2019 25
business
Pearl of Africa Hotel ,one of the businesses owned by Aya Investment Ltd.   COURTESY PHOTO.
Rethinking tax incentives
Researches, experts say there is limited
evidence to show these offers attract investors
By Patricia Akankwatsa
T
ax incentives are part of
Uganda government’s top
priorities for attracting foreign
investors and new businesses.
From prospective investments in
agribusiness to hospitality, and from
steel to textile industries, tax incentives
have remained the big thing in an
attempt to grow the industrial sector.
But business and tax experts say
tax incentives make the government
lose huge revenues that would have
otherwise been collected and used in
improving business environment.
Though accurate data is difficult to
find, a recent study by the Southern
and Eastern Africa Trade Information
and Negotiations Institute (SEATINI)
shows that Uganda lost Shs1.4trillion
in tax incentives in the year 2017/2018.
26 June. 21 - 27 2019
Hospitality infrastructure: Pearl of Africa Hotel
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 2017
This is enough money to run the
ministries of water and environment,
tourism and ICT that have been
allocated a combined budget of Shs
about Shs1.46trillion for the new
financial year.
Now, trade experts suggest that the
government should find new ways of
attracting investors rather than rely
on tax incentives to attract investors
arguing that there is limited evidence
that shows linkage between the two
variables – tax incentives and new
investments.
Gideon Badagawa, the executive
director at the Private Sector
Foundation of Uganda told The
Independent in an interview that tax
incentives are least on the priorities for
attracting investments.
“The major investment attraction is
image and reputation of the country.
9
This is based on peace and security
of persons and their property, good
governance and commitment to
fight corruption and respect for the
rule of law, skills and infrastructure
development,” he said.
“It is after these have been fixed that
we then talk about tax holidays, tax
relief,” he adds.
Nicholas Musoke, the supervisor in
Charge of Research and Policy Analysis
at the Uganda Revenue Authority
says some of the exemptions have
indeed been counterproductive to the
taxman’s goals.
He, however, said some of the
investors have taken the advantage of
tax exemptions to avoid paying taxes.
“Tax exemptions would not
be harmful only that some of the
provisions are abused. Investors
take advantage of loopholes in the

exemptions and sometimes we lose a
lot of revenue more so when it comes
to income tax exemptions,” he said.
Musoke says the many tax
exemptions have eroded the base
for URA to collect taxes, limiting its
potential to raise tax to Gross Domestic
Product ratio from the current around
14.7% against a five year target of 18%.
This comes as the Finance Minister,
Matia Kasaija, announced a reduction
in the minimum investment threshold
that allows developers of free zones
and industrial parks to be eligible
for tax incentive from $100million to
$50million.
Kasaija, who was reading the budget
at the Kampala Serena Hotel on
June.13, also announced a reduction
in the minimum investment threshold
that allows operators within industrial
parks to be eligible for tax incentives
to $10million for foreigners and
$1million for local investors.
This reduction in the investment
threshold comes amidst an increase in
URA’s tax collection from Shs16trillion
in the Financial Year 2018/19 to Shs
18trillion in the Financial Year 2019/20.
But supporters of the tax incentives
including Moses Kaggwa, the Director
of Economic Affairs at the Ministry
of Finance, Planning and Economic
Development says the government
cannot do away with tax exemptions.
He says the initiatives are aimed at
attracting investments in the country to
accelerate economic growth.
Incentives vs investment
Oshani Perera, a researcher at the
Canadian-based International Institute
for Sustainable Development said
in her study dubbed ‘Rethinking
Investment Incentives’ that whereas
countries offered tax incentives to
attract investors in the 1960s and
1970s, with the hope that the resulting
losses would be balanced by positive
externalities that investors would bring
including jobs, up-skilling, business
linkages, this initiative did not always
play out as expected.
“While many economies experienced
brief Foreign Direct Investment booms,
policy-makers realised that fiscal
incentives did little to embed investors
in the domestic economy and even
less to convince them to re-invest if
the wider macro-economic offering
remained weak,” she said.
“Many fiscal incentives were offered
in Foreign Direct Investment sectors
where the investment would very
likely have been made without them.”
She said the challenge is not to
design incentives as blunt instruments,
but to match them with the economic
realities of each jurisdiction, its
comparative trading advantages and
its immediate and medium-term
sustainable development priorities.
Similarly, a research conducted by
the World Bank Group’s Investment
Climate Advisory Services in 2010
shows that tax exemptions do not
attract investments in countries with
weak investment climate, inaccurate
macro-economic data, lack of skilled
labour and bureaucratic red tape for
Fred Muhumuza Gideon Badagawa
Some beneficiaries
of tax incentives
Bidco Oil Refineries Ltd
Aya Investments Ltd
Steel and Tube Industries
Cipla Quality Chemicals
Power Projects
Kingdom Kampala
starting a business.
The World Bank Group found that
lowering the effective tax rate from
40% to 20% raised Foreign Direct
Investments by 1% of Gross Domestic
Product for countries ranked in the
bottom of its investment climate report.
Fred Muhumuza, an economic
analyst and lecturer at Makerere
University says tax incentives in a
country like Uganda can only bring
business
in speculative investors who come for
short term gains.
“The market should be the biggest
attraction for investors. Even when
people look for raw materials and
cheap infrastructure, they still have the
market (both local and foreign) as the
key driver,” he says.
He said other investment attractions
include available skilled labour and
research as well as political stability
and governance.
Successful countries
However, Perera said countries
such as Canada, Ireland, Mauritius,
South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore
demonstrate that investment
incentives can support sustainable
growth.
“These countries have stable
political climates and well-developed
governance and institutional
capacity,” he said adding, “This may
have allowed them to invest in the
continued upgrading of their Foreign
Direct Investment credentials.”
Going forward, Perera said in the
event that the government awards
generous tax incentives to attract
investors, reforms should be designed
as partial tax holidays for a short
period of time and that they should be
performance-based on selected sectors
and anchor projects.
“Some governments also prefer to
target performance based incentives for
capital investments,” she said.
“Many European member states
offered tax credits for capital
investment in renewable energy
projects, and on financial products
engineered to deliver capital for the
upgrading of student housing and
retirement homes.”
She also recommend uniform low
tax rate for both domestic and foreign
investors to enhance levelled playing
field or eliminate the use of tax
incentives altogether.
Similarly, ActionAid executives
says governments should eliminate
tax incentives inform of tax holidays,
tax incentives in free trade zones, and
stability agreements (those between
investors and governments that freeze
tax terms for a period of time).
The executives says that in the event
of extending a tax incentive, then, it
should be on the basis of a cost-benefit
analysis, including an assessment
of the impact on poor people and
vulnerable groups.
“The analysis must be made
subject to public debate, scrutiny
and parliamentary oversight,” the
executives said.
June. 21 - 27 2019 27
business
BANKING
Equity unveils Shs1bn Supreme banking facility
O with MUBS
n June 13, Equity
Bank opened its
second supreme
banking branch
at Bugoloobi – which is
believed to have cost about
Shs1bn, officials told The
Independent. Officials said
the branch targets clients
that want to be attended to
exclusively without going
through the hustle of lin-
ing up. Samuel Kirubi, the
bank’s managing director
ICT
UNCDF, Sweden sign $15million deal
S
candinavian nation,
Sweden has extended
$15million (Approx.
Shs56bn) funding to
the United Nations Capital
Development Fund to go about
its business in Uganda. The
funding, running for the next
five years, will facilitate UNCDF
to implement its new strategy of
“Leaving no one behind in the
digital era” under the “Connect” The Amb. of Sweden to Uganda, Per
Rural Uganda programme.
Jenny Krisch, the first secretary the UNCDF Executive Secretary.
BANKING
Afreximbank wins award
T P
he African Export-
Import Bank
(Afreximbank) recently
received an award
for the African Bank of the
Year at the African Banker
Awards 2019 ceremony held
on the sidelines of the Annual
Meetings of the African
Development Bank.
Amr Kamel,
Afreximbank’s Executive
Vice President for Business
Development and Corporate
Banking received the award on
behalf of the Bank.
The award to Afreximbank
was one of two big ones that
went to development finance
institutions as Admassu Tadesse,
President of Trade Development
Bank, was also named African
Banker of the Year.
28 June. 21 - 27 2019
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Orient Bank partners
said this offering is part of
their business model and
O
aims to facilitate private
rient Bank has part-
sector activity that is linked
nered with Makerere
to job creation and social
University Business
transformation. Among the
School, Uganda’s old-
features of Supreme bank-
est business education center, to
ing are the state of the art
train and facilitate over 30 small
lounges, dedicated relation-
scale business owners through
ship managers, boardroom
the Orient Business Academy to
for customers to hold meet-
grow their businesses to the next
ings, teleconferencing and
level. Speaking at the launch of
Equity bank client, Maria Kiwanuka sharing video conferencing facilities
the academy in its third year of
her banking experience during the launch. and free wireless internet.
running at MUBS, the Bank’s
Managing Director, Julius
Kakeeto, urged all small scale
business owners to take part in
finance literacy programmes to
equip themselves with the rel-
evant skills to enable them sur-
– development analyst, vive in the country’s competitive
economic growth and business environment and also
empowerment at the position themselves for growth.
Embassy of Sweden, said at The Orient Business Academy
the signing event at Protea will run on an intensive 10
Hotel in Kampala on June weeks training programme
17, that the programme that climaxes into a graduation
aims to develop an ceremony at which five top per-
inclusive digital economy formers will be awarded with up
in Uganda. It will empower to Shs20 million to finance their
smallholder farmers, agri- businesses. The MUBS Principal,
businesses and refugees Prof. Waswa Balunywa noted
Lingarde shaking hands with Judith Karl, to access and use digital that programmes such as the
services. Orient Business Academy hold
the key to eradicating unem-
ployment in the country
CSR
Kansai Plascon donates to Sanyu Babies Home
aint maker
Kansai
Plascon has
donated the
first Shs16million
proceeds from
the anti-mosquito
paint sales to Sanyu
Babies Home, in
fulfillment of its
pledge to donate
Shs1,000 from every
liter of the Anti-
Mosquito Paint
sold to different
causes. This follows Plascon’s Managing Director (L), Santosh Gumte on a tour of the home.
the launch of the
Kansai Plascon where Plascon pledged to a cause close to their hearts
Anti-Mosquito donate paint to various Non- and as such children are
Paint (AMP) which Government Organisations. our future. “We need to do
kicked off with the Santosh Gumte, the Kansai everything that we can to
‘Hold my Hand Plascon managing director ensure that they grow up in
to 5’ campaign said Sanyu Babies Home is safe communities.”
 business

Huawei smartphone
sales decline 40%
By Ian Katusiime As a result, Google said

U
gandans could
see less Huawei
phones on the
market as they get
caught up in a trade war
between the U.S. and China.
Huawei smartphones are
popular for their strong
cameras and long lasting
batteries.
The Chinese smartphone
maker is currently reeling
from an onslaught by the
Shell station staff Madrine Mulindwa and Amos Sewakulya posing
for a picture with one of the winners of the happy hour activation U.S. as part of Donald
at Shell Ntinda. Vivo Energy Uganda is running a campaign where Trump’s all-out trade war
customers get 10% free fuel on purchases. on the world’s second
largest economy.
Huawei founder,
Ren Zhengfei, has said
international sales of the
Huawei handsets have
sunk 40% in the past month
since the backlash started.
Speaking at the firm’s
headquarters, Ren also said
the company would slash
production by $30bn.
Last month, the US
put Huawei on a list of
companies that American
firms cannot trade with
unless they have a licence.
it would no longer allow
Huawei to use its Android
software for its phones.
The US says the Chinese
company - the world’s
largest maker of telecoms
equipment and the second
biggest smartphone maker
poses a security risk. This
is also due to Huawei’s rise
as a top manufacturer of
5G technology- the most
advanced cellular network.
The Huawei founder had
previously downplayed the
impact of the US restrictions
on the Chinese firm.
However, the actions
by the US have prompted
tech companies around
the world to retreat from
Huawei. US clampdown
on Huawei is part of a
broader push-back against
the company, over worries
about using its products in
5G mobile networks.
Several countries have
raised concerns that Huawei
equipment could be used
by China for surveillance,
allegations the company has
vehemently denied.

Waiswa Balunywa (L), MUBS Principal with Julius Kakeeto (R) Orient
Bank MD at the launch of the third edition of the 3rd edition of the
10-week Orient Academy.

Weekly share price movement (June 10)

Security June 10 May 13 Movement
BATU 30,000 30000 00
BOBU 128 129 0.8
CENT 1,225 1,178 4.0
QCL 170 170 00
DFCU 670 700 4.2
EABL 7,593 7,944 4.4
EBL 1,474 1,553 5.0
JHL 14,666 15,229 3.6
KA 132 143 7.7
KCB 1,470 1,544 4.7
NIC 14 14 00
NMG 2,023 2,154 6.0
NVL 330 334 1.1
Ibrahim Kaddunabbi Lubega, the immediate past President of the African
Insurance Organisation hands over a prestigious insurance award in Africa SBU 29 30 3.3
‘Hall of Fame of African Insurance Organisation,’ to Hajjat Aphwa Ssebyala UCHM 18 12 50
during the 2019 AIO Gala Dinner held in Johannesburg South Africa UCL 15 16 6.25
on June.12. Ssebyala serve as the deputy Chairperson of the Insurance UMEME 300 300 00
Regulatory Authority of Uganda. ALSI -- -- --

June. 21 - 27 2019 29
F
By Bonnie Fournier
or 25 years, northern Uganda
was devastated by civil war.
During this time the area’s resi-
dents, many of whom belong to
the Acholi people, were forced
from their homes. They ended
up living in internally displaced camps,
relying on the World Food Programme and
battling a severe shortage of clean water.
Hunger, malnutrition and a lack of adequate
sanitation facilities took a dreadful toll.
Death rates rose significantly next to the
national average rate. Survival was the only
priority. As such, many of the Acholi’s tradi-
tional practices were eroded.
One of these practices was the gathering
around the wang-oo, a central, communal
fireplace where elements of the culture –
stories, songs, riddles and parables – were
told and passed on from one generation to
another.
The wang-oo usually happened in the
evenings. It served as entertainment, moral
education and conflict resolution. It was
also a sort of informal school for the Acholi.
There, information on taboos, rituals and
expected behaviour was passed on. Elders
used the time to indirectly correct commu-
nity members’ misbehaviour’s by relating
proverbs and folk tales.
Without a formal space to bind the com-
munity in the midst of serious social prob-
lems in the camps, the status of elders was
severely undermined and the continuity of
traditional values from one generation to the
next ceased to exist. When people began to
return to their communities a decade ago
during relative peace, many of the tradition-
al practices, such as the wang-oo, were not
re-established.
Now, researchers, Acholi elders, and
teachers are working to together to revitalise
the wang-oo. Our plan is to bring the prac-
tice into schools in a new way: by using it
as a space where young people can discuss
HIV and the stigma surrounding the condi-
tion.
Addressing HIV stigma through using
the Acholi’s own local cultural system is an
empowering process that will position the
role of the elders back into the community.
It will also provide a valuable space for vul-
nerable young people to talk openly about
HIV and stigma and to learn folktales that
support respect and responsibility.
Tackling stigma
Adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa
account for 71% of new infections every
year.
While antiretroviral therapy is preserving
30 June. 21 - 27 2019
Acholi
culture to
fight HIV
Ancient fireside
gatherings could
tackle stigma
health and prolonging life, stigma continues
to cripple individuals and communities. My
previous research, also conducted in Ugan-
da, has shown that adolescents with HIV
face discrimination and bullying in school
and in the broader community. This can lead
to social isolation, school drop-out, depres-
sion and suicide.
To address these issues, we are drawing
from the teachings that traditionally take
place around the wang-oo. These demon-
strate empowering concepts related to self
and community, respect for self, peers and
authority, and responsibility for caring for
others. And it’s these concepts that will pro-
vide the inputs for our four-year research
project intervention to decrease HIV stigma
among school children, teachers and the
broader community.
During my previous work in Uganda,
living and working in the country for several
years, I learned about the many traditional
practices that were helping to reintegrate
children who had been abducted during the
quarter century of civil war back into their
communities. I wondered how other Acholi
traditional practices could support children
in addressing issues such as HIV stigma.
Some members of our research team have
just returned from Uganda where we learnt
that elders are very much interested in rees-
tablishing their role. However, more work
needs to be done with older youth to create
interest. Integrating the project into schools
and using creative methods will make learn-
ing more formalised, fun, and engaging for
youth.
The idea is that this approach will be
grounded in local cultural knowledge.
Project activities include using visual art
(painting, sketching), dance, singing, and
theatre to change social and cultural norms,
and directly address various types of stigma.
Family, community members, and health
care workers will be invited to weekly per-
formance events.
These events, similar to the wang-oo, will
bring together diverse groups of people to
discuss HIV stigma and to participate in
re-creating new behaviours and attitudes
that demonstrate their moral teachings
passed on by elders. The hope is that while
not the wang-oo in its traditional form, a
more modern form will emerge, making the
traditional practice more appealing.
Restoring cultural values
The restoration of cultural practices and
values will need long term effort and mul-
tiple strategies happening at the same time
for sustained change. One such strategy
happening in northern Uganda is a radio
programme that airs every Saturday eve-
ning with local traditional stories, parables
and riddles told by Elders. Individuals are
encouraged to call into the show and guess
the moral teaching.
There are other efforts underway to
document traditional knowledge by video
recording elders as a way to capture the oral
history of the Acholi people.
Bringing people together through theatre,
radio, or video in a similar way as the wang-
oo has the potential to promote healing and
build resiliency in a society that has lost so
much. Addressing HIV stigma through local
cultural knowledge will support families
and communities to help children become
healthy productive citizens.
Bonnie Fournier is Associate Professor,
Thompson Rivers University

400 current medical
practices not effective
Either they don’t work or do more harm than good
By Ana Sandoiu phy screening for breast cancer in women
M
edical reversal” is a term that de-
fines instances in which new and
improved clinical trials show
that current medical practices
are ineffective or misguided. New research
reveals that there are currently almost 400
medical reversals.
Medical reversals occur when new clinical
research shows that a certain medical prac-
tice does not, in fact, work or it does more
harm than good.
These new studies are superior to their
predecessors because of things like better
controls, better study design, or larger
sample size. There are many examples of
reversal.
Medical reversals often concern med-
ications but they can also affect surgical
procedures.
For instance, more than a decade ago,
researchers and healthcare professionals
realised that stenting procedures did not
work for renal artery stenosis and that
routine stenting should not be used to treat
stable coronary disease.
In the late 20th century, sudden cardiac
death, particularly during the vulnerable
period after myocardial infarction, was
deemed a “worldwide public health prob-
lem” A type of heart rhythm, premature
ventricular contractions (PVCs), was thought
to contribute to such deaths. A new gener-
ation of antiarrhythmic therapy was devel-
oped with the ability to suppress PVCs up to
85 percent of the time. Cardiologists began
using these medications in widespread
fashion. In the late 1980s, the Cardiac Anti-
arrhythmic Suppression Trial (CAST) was
conducted to assess the safety of what was
then commonplace. The trial showed that
these drugs (encainide, flecainide, and later,
moricizine) caused more deaths. They were
stopped. In another case, vertebroplasty, the
injection of medical cement into fractured
bone, achieved widespread use without
good evidence that it worked. In 2005, it
was performed more than 27,000 times in
the United States. Until a pair of articles
published in the `New England Journal of
Medicine’ in 2009 conclusively showed that
the procedure was no better than placebo by
analyzing the outcomes of patients. Verte-
broplasty was a sham procedure.
Then there is the routine mammogra-
between 40 and 49 years old. This was ques-
tioned in 2009 and the U.S. Preventive Ser-
vices Task Force (USPSTF) advised against it.
A study of 54,000 women who were offered
mammograms starting at age 39 and 107,000
women who were not offered them showed
only a small decline in the breast cancer
death rate after 10 years.
Each of these examples represents a med-
ical practice not surpassed by an alternative
(replaced) but instituted in error (reversed).
Now, a new meta-analysis of 3,000 studies
identifies almost 400 cases of medical rever-
sals. The review appears in the journal eLife.
Diana Herrera-Perez, a research assistant
at the Knight Cancer Institute at Oregon
Health & Science University (OHSU), in
Portland, is the lead author of the new anal-
ysis.
Analysis finds 396 medical reversals
Referring to well-known endeavors to
assess the validity of clinical practices, such
as the Cochrane reviews, Herrera-Perez says,
“We wanted to build on these and other
efforts to provide a larger and more compre-
hensive list for clinicians and researchers to
guide practice as they care for patients more
effectively and economically.”
To do so, she and colleagues examined
over 3,000 randomised controlled trials pub-
lished in three prestigious medical journals
over the last 15 years: The Journal of the
American Medical Association (JAMA), The
Lancet, and The New England Journal of
Medicine (NEJM).
The analysis discovered 396 medical
reversals: 154 of them in JAMA, 129 in
NEJM, and 113 in The Lancet.
Researchers carried out most of these
health
studies (92%) in high-income countries,
while 8% were performed in low- or mid-
dle-income countries; including China,
India, Malaysia, Ghana, Tanzania, and Ethi-
opia. Most of the medical reversals occurred
in the fields of cardiovascular disease (20%),
public health and preventive medicine
(12%), and critical care (11%).
Specifically, the most common interven-
tions involved medications (33%), proce-
dures (20%), vitamins and supplements
(13%), devices (9%), and system interven-
tions (8%).
Main takeaways from the results
The study’s senior author, Dr. Vinay
Prasad, a hematologist-oncologist and asso-
ciate professor at the OHSU Knight Cancer
Institute, comments on the findings.
“There are a number of lessons that
we can take away from our set of results,
including the importance of conducting
(randomised controlled trials) for both novel
and established practices,” he says.
“Once an ineffective practice is estab-
lished, it may be difficult to convince prac-
titioners to abandon its use. By aiming to
test novel treatments rigorously before they
become widespread, we can reduce the
number of reversals in practice and prevent
unnecessary harm to patients,” says Prasad.
He adds, “We hope our broad results may
serve as a starting point for researchers, pol-
icymakers, and payers who wish to have a
list of practices that likely offer no net benefit
to use in future work.”
Dr. Prasad cautions that the review has
some limitations, such as the small number
of journals it includes and the limited exper-
tise of the reviewers.
To overcome such limitations, co-lead
study author Alyson Haslam, Ph.D., who is
also affiliated with the OHSU Knight Cancer
Institute, calls for experts from various fields
to critically assess the medical reversals iden-
tified in the analysis.
She says, “Taken together, we hope
our findings will help push medical
professionals to evaluate their own practices
critically and demand high-quality research
before adopting a new practice in (the)
future, especially for those that are more
expensive and/or aggressive than the current
standard of care.”
Source: medical news today
June. 21 - 27 2019 31
comment
By Mukwanason A. Hyuha
Reply to Mwenda on Uganda’s debt
To suggest printing money or ceding national
assets to pay debt reflects utter economics myopia
I
n The Independent (April 26-May 02, 2019
edition), Andrew Mwenda purported
to respond to my Saturday Monitor
(April 13, 2019) article on Uganda’s
debt sustainability. I have also read Derrick
Wintergreen Kitto’s and Dr. Michael
Mugabira’s reactions (The Independent,
May 10-16 edition) plus Twitter comments
by Moses Odokonyero, Acacia Bengo
Ssembajjwe and others on Mwenda’s
‘rebuttal’ of my article. Did Mwenda
understand my article?
In my article, I did not aim “to
demonstrate that Uganda’s debt is
unsustainable” as Mwenda alleges.
Instead, the aim was to shed light on a
number of issues surrounding the subject
of debt sustainability in Uganda, and,
in so doing, to discuss the half-truths,
myths, irrelevancies and digressions in
Mwenda’s article.
Issues that had provoked me into
writing the reaction to Mwenda’s article
included the following:
 The self-styled economist appeared
not to know the difference between a
stock and a flow—a concept that even
‘A’ level and undergraduate students of
economics are made aware of.
 That, in discussing the relevant topic, it
was not necessary to compare Uganda’s
situation vis-à-vis debt sustainability
with other counties’ situations.
 That the “ability to repay a debt
and its servicing depend on how
the borrowed funds were used or
invested”, not on whether the interest
rates on the borrowed funds are zero,
highly concessionary, or commercial.
 Mwenda disputing Muhumuza’s
assertion that Uganda’s economy has
been growing below its potential,
without backing his dispute with
evidence, or a discussion of issues
of the productivity, absorption,
management and coordination of
borrowed funds, or a mention of the
leakages (e.g. corruption, capital flights
and unwarranted reverse flows, late
release of counterpart funds and donor
aid, etc.) that lead to suboptimal use of
borrowed funds.
 The apparent reference to Dr.
32 June. 21 - 27 2019
Muhumuza, who holds a PhD
(Economics) degree, as a third-rate
economist—as if Mwenda himself
holds any or better qualifications in
Economics.
 This nth-rate (where he assumes n <
3) economist’s failure to state what
rate he considers to be the potential
or optimum, in view of his dispute of
Muhumuza’s assertion.
 Mwenda’s apparent lack of
understanding of the difference
between “necessary” and “sufficient”
conditions—hence, his assertion without
evidence that the debt/GDP ratio of
50% is a sufficient condition for debt
sustainability in Uganda and elsewhere.
 Mwenda’s apparently incurable disease
of using half-truths, irrelevancies,
digressions and superfluous political
undertones in his article—rumblings
that add no value to his discussion.
In view of the above, I am strongly
persuaded to believe that Mwenda is
not the economist he claims to be. If
he is, then he is apparently an nth-rate
economist (where, n ≥ 6). Hence, using
Hon. Kahinda Otafiire’s expression, he
should “leave issues of the generals to the
generals”.
A country,
pursuing prudent
policies aimed at
macroeconomic
stability
and related
development goals,
can actually default
on its domestic
and/or foreign debt
Mwenda obviously needs re-reading my
article possibly for better results. If he had
understood it, his rebuttal should have
dwelt mainly on the above points. By the
way, the two textbooks published in 2017
are in the area of Monetary Economics
as I had specified, not “on the economics
of debt” as Mwenda states. Anyway, I
believe the following discussion sheds
ample light on these issues
Meaning of Debt Sustainability
Previously, I defined: D = total debt
(borrowed funds), R = total interest
payable on the debt, C = other resultant
charges (commitment fee, disbursement
charges, bank charges, etc.), and I = total
(net) income realised by investing the D
. Now, let Y = national income, proxied by
the gross domestic product (GDP), K = net
capital stock, and P = penalties imposed
because of failure to service or pay off the
debt. Then, note the following tautological
inequalities (where the signs ‘<, >, and
≥’ mean ‘less than’, ‘greater than’, and
‘greater than or equal to’, respectively):
I<Y<K
D < Y < K; in fact, for Uganda, D is said
to be 41% of Y
I < (D+R+C) or I ≥ (D+R+C), as stated in
my article
(D+R+C) < Y < K and P ≥ 0
(D+R+C+P) < Y < K
Thus, in theory, a country cannot fail
to settle its external debt obligations,
since if I < (D+R+C), the Y or the K can
be used, given inequality (5) above. For
an individual, this means that he/she
can use either the income realised from
investing the borrowed funds, or use
other incomes to top up the I, or sell off
some of his/her capital stock (chickens,
cattle, furniture, houses, land, etc.) to
settle the debt. For a country, this means
that if the I is insufficient, the Y and K
can be used. For example, in Uganda’s
case, the country in practice can cede
ownership of the Entebbe Express Way
to the lender (China); which will manage
the fixed asset until all debt obligations
are settled. With respect to Chinese loans,
this is not theoretical; it is currently
happening in Sri Lanka, Papua New

Guinea, Maldives, Laos, etc. Note that
Chinese loans bear interest rates of 6% to
10%, with a short maturity period of 5 to
10 years—compared to the IDA type of
loans discussed in my article.
Further, as Mwenda states, indeed,
the domestic debt can be paid off by
resorting to money printing. The cost
here is inflation that will eventually
impact adversely on income distribution,
the country’s foreign exchange rate,
trade relationships, etc. Eventually,
when inflationary expectations set in,
the inflation may metamorphose into
hyperinflation, with complete loss of
faith in the domestic currency, among
other things. This occurred in Germany
following the first imperialist war, and,
recently, in Zimbabwe. It should be noted
that the transformation of double-digit
inflation into hyperinflation is essentially
beyond a country’s control, given
expectations (see Chapter 6 of my first
textbook).
Consequently, if the I is inadequate,
external debt obligations can be settled by
resorting to Y or K; and the domestic debt
can be settled by switching on the money
printing press. Both of these are, however,
extremely undesirable and imprudent.
So, to suggest any of these (as Mwenda
does) is a great reflection of utter
economics myopia, policy imprudence
and utopianism as if one were not living
on Mother Earth. If these were prudent,
viable options, most countries would be
using them to solve their debt problems.
It is, therefore, foolhardy to suggest that
these are viable policy options.
The debt is sustainable if servicing
or amortising it does not cause any
significant discomfort, distress or sizeable
upheaval—like ceding ownership of
one’s assets, selling off one’s capital stock,
igniting inflation, over-depleting one’s
foreign exchange reserves, incurring
new debts to pay off old debts, et
cetera. Mwenda needs a lecture or two
to appreciate these common sense (not
theoretical) issues.
Needless to state, Mwenda’s assertion
that the ability “to service the debt
depends on government revenue and on
the credit worthiness of a country – which
allows it to borrow new loans to pay off
old ones” leaves a lot to be desired.
Defaulting on Debt
It is, therefore, obvious that a country,
pursuing prudent policies aimed at
macroeconomic stability and related
development goals, can actually default
on its domestic and/or foreign debt.
Resorting to money printing or use of Y
or K are, in practice, not available policy
options since they are not only irrational
but also imprudent, naive, myopic, and
utopian.
I didn’t Intend to Demonstrate That
Uganda’s Debt Is Unsustainable
Mwenda correctly states that I did
“not bother to state the debt stock, its
tax revenues …”. As noted earlier, my
objective was not “to demonstrate that
Uganda’s debt is unsustainable”. Being a
well-trained, professional and practising
statistician and econometrician, if that
had been my aim, I would have used
my proven expertise and experience to
present a superior analysis of issues than
Mwenda does. Note that my first book
(Chapter 6) and second one (Chapters 2,
4 and 5) contain analyses of some of these
issues.
It should
be
worrisome
to
everybody
that 20%
of URA’s
collections
in 2019/20
Irrelevancies in Mwenda’s Latest Article
As expected, there are additional
irrelevancies in this article, including:
 Length of my article: Does length matter?
What matters is the work’s contribution
to knowledge plus the powers of
argumentation and analysis.
 Theoretical abstractions about debt: As
pointed out by Kitto, Mugabira and
others, I used common sense and simple
analyses to present my ideas; no theories
on debt. Mwenda is maybe frightened
by inequalities like I > (D+R+C), which
are common sense statements, not
theories—and, hence, he thinks they are
theories!
 Copied notes … to show off: Does it matter
whether I used lecture notes? What
matters is the correctness and relevance
of the narrative contents. Besides, I
didn’t write the article so as to show off.
Show off to who? Genuine economists
and other people should follow this
simple analysis; and, indeed, I continue
to receive positive feedback from various
people.
comment
 Discontent with the Museveni Regime: As
many readers know, I have published
various works on, inter alia, education
and economics issues in Uganda,
not because I am discontented with
President Museveni but because I
believe in objective (scientific) analysis
and telling the truth. If President
Museveni or anybody else says
something that I believe is not right, I
will say it is wrong, whether or not I
am (politically or otherwise) opposed
to the person who said it. At a 2011
KIU graduation ceremony, Hajji
Basajjabalaba made a correct statement
that “Hyuha is a person who will say in
your face that you’re wrong when you
are wrong”. Mwenda: that is me. In any
case, is it President Museveni who stated
that the debt is sustainable?
Most likely, Mwenda is very economical
with the truth. However, I also believe
that he uses arrogance and derogatory
statements against dissenters to his views,
employs superfluous political overtones,
and tosses around unnecessary raw data,
rates and ratios, other statistics, etc. to
ward off or repel dissenters, and as a
cover-up for apparent deficiencies in his
stock of knowledge.
Concluding Remarks
In my article, I expressed my opinion
that “Uganda definitely needs to worry a
lot about her growing public debt”. This
was and is the considered view of the
writer. It is the resultant, common sense
evidence deduced from the analysis.
This is a hypothesis worth investigating
econometrically or using other data
analytical techniques.
Finally, it is gratifying to note that
this hypothesis appears to tally with
an IMF analysis (Press Release No.
19/148, May 7, 2019) that shows that
due to ever-rising borrowing for
infrastructure, Uganda’s debt/GDP
ratio is to rise from 41% to 45.7%, 49.0%
and 50.7% in financial years 2018/19 to
2021/22, respectively, thereby gradually
increasing the risk of distress. Further,
it should be worrisome to everybody
that 20% of URA’s collections in 2019/20
will be consumed by just interest
payments—more than what is planned
to be spent on health or education.
Mukwanason A. Hyuha is a Professor of
Economics based at the Centre for Critical
Thinking and Alternative Analysis
hyuhama@gmail.com
June. 21 - 27 2019 33
comment
By Peter Nyanzi
Counterfeit threat to industrialisation
The court battle between two local battery
manufacturers has brought the issue to the fore
I
f the ongoing court battle between
two local battery manufacturers
in Uganda over trademark
infringement is anything to go by,
then the issue of counterfeiting and
trademark infringement still poses a
serious challenge to Uganda’s private
sector.
Following a suit by Uganda Batteries
Ltd (UBL), the Commercial Division
of the High Court recently issued
a temporary injunction against a
company based in eastern Uganda,
restraining it from manufacturing,
distributing and selling batteries
marked ‘NBL.’
UBL successfully argued that the
impugned batteries had physical
features that were identical to UBL’s
registered trademarks and were thus
causing confusion in the market.
This conflict once again brings to the
fore an important issue that Ugandan
manufacturers and the public have
been complaining about for decades
– counterfeiting and infringement of
trademarks.
Trademark protection is crucial
to trade as it not only safeguards a
manufacturer who has invested a
great deal of resources in producing a
quality product but also the consumers
who face risks and loss associated with
hazardous and poor quality products.
Private Sector players in Uganda have
for a long time called for a stringent
law to fight the vice of counterfeiting
and trademark infringement as
the existing legal and institutional
frameworks are very weak.
A few years ago following pressure
from manufacturers, the Anti-
counterfeiting Goods Bill 2015 was
finally tabled in Parliament. The Bill
sought to criminalise counterfeiting
and infringement on intellectual
property and trademarks. However
early last year, the Government made a
dramatic U-turn and withdrew the Bill
saying it was not necessary.
Yet the UNBS Act and the Trademarks
Act 2010 have been criticised as weak,
too lenient and incapable of offering
deterrent punitive sanctions to deal
34 June. 21 - 27 2019
with the vice.
For example, the Trademarks Act
largely makes such issues a civil
matter, which is clearly a disadvantage
as such cases are not only a big cost
to the company but also take long to
dispose of.
Just across the border in Kenya, they
have taken the bull of counterfeits by
the horns.
Ten years ago, Kenya passed the
Anti-Counterfeit Act 2008 which
created the Anti-Counterfeit Authority
as an autonomous State body to
fight counterfeits and trademark
infringement. Its other important role
is educating the public and providing
information on matters relating to
counterfeits, fake and substandard
products. The Authority’s mandate
includes having Police powers to
inspect, impound, arrest and prosecute
offenders.
In more developed countries such as
the USA, trademark counterfeiting is
a very serious criminal offence under
Trademark Counterfeiting Act of
1984. Offenders face extremely tough
penalties of up to $1 million (UGX3.7
billion), and/or imprisonment of up to
five years.
Globally, counterfeiting and
Competition
from
fake and
counterfeit
products
are key
bottlenecks
to private
sector
development
trademark infringement are looked at
as a threat to national development,
international trade and public health.
Global coalitions such as the Anti-
Counterfeit Agency (ACA) and Global
Anti-Counterfeiting Group (GACG)
have been formed to deal with the
vice. Indeed, June 26th has been
commemorated as the World Anti-
Counterfeiting Day since 1998.
It is unfortunate that Uganda is not
picking interest in these efforts yet the
problem is very serious.
The production and sale of
counterfeits robs not just the genuine
manufacturers and the innocent
consumers but also threatens jobs and
revenue collection. Why should our
excessively lenient legal framework
continue to make the vice profitable at
the expense of genuine manufacturers?
Ironically, both the Government’s
Small, Micro and Medium
Enterprises (MSME) Policy and the
National Strategy for Private Sector
Development do highlight the fact that
competition from fake and counterfeit
products are key bottlenecks to private
sector development, industrialisation
and market efficiency in both local and
regional markets.
Let us strengthen and consolidate
the Trademarks Act 2010 (Ministry of
Justice and Constitutional Affairs) and
the UNBS Act (Ministry of Trade and
Industry) by putting their mandate
under one Authority and giving that
body more powers.
Furthermore, there’s need for
EAC Partner States to expedite the
harmonisation of their anti-counterfeit
legal regimes.
The author is a journalist
petersnyz@gmail.com

By Roger E.A. Farmer
Paying for the welfare state
What if there was a way to raise the money to pay
for pensions and health care without extra taxes?
T
he current value of the U.S. gov-
ernment’s unfunded pension and
Medicare liabilities is $46.7 trillion,
or roughly two and a half times U.S.
GDP. Other estimates put that figure much
higher. In the United Kingdom, a similar
calculation by the Adam Smith Institute
yields a £1.85 trillion ($2.34 trillion) “hidden
debt time bomb.” And the situation in Swit-
zerland, France, Belgium, Germany, Austria,
and Spain is little different. It seems that all
advanced economies are facing public-fi-
nance trouble ahead.
Or maybe not.
What if there really is such a thing as
a free lunch? What if there was a way to
raise the money to pay for social-welfare
programs, such as pensions and health
care, without imposing extra taxes? In fact,
there is: national treasuries should establish
Social Care Funds that borrow money at low
interest rates and invest the proceeds in the
stock market.
According to one study of a century’s
worth of data from 16 advanced economies,
the return from investing in stocks was
6.96% higher, on average, than the return on
government bonds. And there was remark-
able consistency across countries. Denmark
had the smallest equity premium, of 3.8%,
while Japan’s was the largest at a whopping
9.89%.
There is some evidence that the equity pre-
mium has been a little lower in recent years,
so let’s conservatively assume that it will be
approximately 4% over the next 50 years.
This implies that governments will be able to
borrow from the public at a rate of 4% below
the level of stock-market returns. How can
that be, and why hasn’t some rich investor
arbitraged this equity premium away?
Here, it helps to think of asset markets as
existing to allow trades between different
kinds of people, and specifically to allow the
young to save for their old age. Taking that
approach implies that market volatility has
nothing to do with economic fundamentals.
Rather, it reflects the animal spirits of inves-
tors, who engage in orgies of buying and
selling stocks and shares, fuelled by self-ful-
filling waves of optimism and pessimism.
According to this view of markets, volatility
exists because almost all the people that you
and I will trade with in the financial markets
are not yet born.
In my book `Prosperity for All’, I call this
the absence of a prenatal contract. Suppose,
counterfactually, that such contracts did
exist. In this make-believe world, the unborn
would buy assets that pay off in bad states
of nature, and they would pay a premium
in good states. And perhaps surprisingly,
the very existence of those trades would
eliminate market volatility in the first place.
In reality, however, asset markets are volatile
because the unborn are not able to exploit
arbitrage opportunities. Those opportunities
are reflected in the equity premium.
But, although future generations are not
yet around to trade in the asset markets,
national treasuries can trade on their behalf.
There is a massive free lunch staring us in
the face. You and I can’t exploit it, and nor
can Bill Gates or George Soros. Only the trea-
sury of a sovereign country is rich enough to
arbitrage away the equity premium, because
only it can trade on behalf of the unborn.
To see how it would work in practice, con-
sider the UK. Its GDP is approximately £2
trillion, and the value of all traded equities
in the FTSE 100 index is roughly the same.
The UK Treasury would first need to decide
which assets it was willing to buy. I have
previously suggested that it should purchase
a broad value-weighted index fund con-
sisting of every publicly traded share. The
Treasury would then borrow money and
invest in the index fund.
In most
advanced
economies,
governments
take in the
equivalent of
at least 40%
of GDP in tax
revenues
comment
I would also propose that the UK Treasury
start small – for example, by establishing a
Social Care Fund of £100 billion. Assuming
a 4% equity premium, investing this amount
in shares would return £4 billion per year on
average, or roughly what the UK currently
raises in inheritance taxes each year. That’s
not peanuts, but nor is it enough to fill the
pension gap.
Still, if a trial of that size were successful,
the scheme could be ramped up. If the Trea-
sury were to borrow £1 trillion, equivalent
to roughly 50% of UK GDP, and invest this
sum in index funds, the expected revenue
would be around £40 billion per year – not
far short of what the UK currently raises
through corporation tax. That is serious
money, and has a present value of £1 trillion
if capitalised at 4%.
What if the government lost its shirt?
Wouldn’t a market crash of 10% or 20% dev-
astate UK public finances?
No. In most advanced economies, gov-
ernments take in the equivalent of at least
40% of GDP in tax revenues. The net present
value of that revenue, capitalised at 4%,
is ten times GDP. Governments therefore
have very deep pockets with which to move
markets if needed. Alternatively, a national
treasury could choose to absorb its losses by
riding out a major recession. After all, mar-
kets cannot remain irrational for longer than
the treasury of a large advanced economy
can remain solvent.
I am not a big fan of government inter-
vention in markets. Anyone who suggests
that there is a free lunch must first explain
what governments can do that private
individuals cannot. The explanation, in
this case, is simple: governments can
make trades on behalf of the unborn that
leave all of us better off. Surely that’s a
better way for national treasuries to pay
for social welfare than trying to squeeze
another £40 billion per year from an
already overtaxed population.
Roger E.A. Farmer is Professor of Economics at
the University of Warwick, Research Director
at the National Institute of Economic and Social
Research, and author of Prosperity for All: How
to Prevent Financial Crises.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
June. 21 - 27 2019 35
comment
By Olga Morawczynski and David Porteous
Africa’s gig opportunity
Why government policies should support and protect
the growing number of freelance or gig workers
T
he growth of digital platforms in
Africa could offer new opportunities
to bridge the current gap between
often-insecure informal work and
formal employment. Portable benefits,
which move with a freelance worker from
gig to gig, could drive this transition.
There are already about 300 active dig-
ital platforms in Africa, employing close
to five million workers. They include
e-commerce company Jumia, which was
established in Nigeria and now operates
in 14 countries on the continent.
The rise of such platforms has intensi-
fied the debate about the demise of the
traditional employment contract and
the persistence of widespread informal
employment in Africa. This shift increases
the risk of lower wages and lower-quality
work. It also restricts workers’ access
to critical benefits; including sick leave,
health insurance, workers’ compensation,
and employer-funded retirement savings
plans.
Although informal work sometimes
provides an adequate income, it often
traps workers in a cycle of low produc-
tivity and even poverty. In most parts
of the world, government policies fail to
support and protect the growing number
of freelance or gig workers, forcing them
to navigate a regulatory grey zone.
Furthermore, informal employment
deprives governments of substantial tax
revenues. According to the International
Labor Organisation, 85% of workers in
Africa are employed informally, and
therefore do not declare their income
or register their businesses. This loss of
potential revenue affects countries’ ability
to invest in education, health, and basic
infrastructure, all of which are vital for
boosting the productivity of the work-
force and sustaining broader economic
growth.
Gig workers are increasingly putting
pressure on employers to rethink out-
dated models of compensation and bene-
fits. Uber, for example, has recently lost a
series of lawsuits in the United Kingdom
instigated by drivers seeking access to
basic benefits like minimum wage and
holiday pay. In an effort to appease their
workers, platforms are experimenting
with additional incentives for contract
36 June. 21 - 27 2019
workers. For example, drivers working
for ride-hailing company Lyft in the
United States get a voucher giving them a
discount when they visit a doctor, while
TaskRabbit workers are provided with
liability protection of up to $1 million.
But these perks are still a far cry from the
health-care and retirement benefits that
companies traditionally offer their full-
time employees.
A growing number of experts and pol-
icymakers are therefore looking at the
feasibility of portable benefits, which are
not tied to a particular job or company.
Employers would pay a certain per-
centage toward universal benefits for all
work that they commission, regardless
of the nature of their contract with the
worker. For example, if an independent
worker drives one hour for Uber, and
walks a dog for another hour on Rover,
each platform would contribute an equal
amount toward his or her benefits. This
would enable independent workers to
accumulate and manage their benefits,
and eventually acquire a safety net like
that of a full-time contracted employee.
With digital commerce estimated to
benefit at least 80 million young Africans
by 2030, opportunities for gig workers
will increase. And if access to a range of
valued benefits, from health insurance
African
labour-
market
regulators
and tax
authorities
can play a
significant
role
to pensions, is made conditional on reg-
istering their business and paying taxes,
they will have a powerful reason to for-
malise their work.
Digitisation could enable the formal
sector to offer a spectrum of benefits
for workers and responsibilities for
employers. African labour-market regula-
tors and tax authorities can play a signifi-
cant role in recognising and incentivising
progress along this spectrum. This means
taking stock of which benefits workers
value most, and then designing effective
policies that encourage digital platforms
to offer them. Moreover, such policies
should ensure that benefits are portable
and tied to the worker rather than the
platform, so that people can choose the
ones that suit them.
Digital platforms should also consider
how to include portable benefits in what
they offer to potential employees, such
as by setting aside a portion of their reve-
nues to finance these perks. Such benefits
could become an increasingly important
recruitment tool as platforms grow and
compete for labour. And unless digital
firms take the lead on this issue, they face
the risk that governments will force them
to adapt their business later on – which
will likely be much harder.
By introducing portable benefits for gig
workers, African governments and digital
platforms can help to power the conti-
nent’s future growth. Otherwise, these
platforms will lose top talent, countries
will miss out on potential tax revenue,
and Africa will fail to reap the full bene-
fits of the digital revolution.
Olga Morawczynski is Senior Program
Manager at the Mastercard Foundation.
David Porteous is Founder and Chair of the
consulting firm BFA and Co-founder and
Chair of the Digital Frontiers Institute.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
 ART | BOOKS | SOCIETY | TRAVEL | CULTURE
Daring the art market
Ugandan goes for solo show in Nairobi
M
ark Kassi is a figurative
artist working with
acrylics. His distinctive
segmented style on can-
vas borrowed from the
appliqué technique syn-
onymous with textile design, has earned him
a name in the region. He sometimes uses an
arbitrary palette that ends up into harmoni-
ous displays and likes painting children and
their outdoor games. Dominic Muwanguzi
caught up with him ahead of his upcoming
solo show in Nairobi.
How did you choose art above any other
normal profession?
Art has always been my passion right
from my secondary school days when we
did not have an art teacher at school but I
made a personal effort to practice and excel
in the discipline. When I joined Universi-
ty, art financed my welfare on campus. I
would produce and sell art to pay for my
daily expenses and did not have to depend
on hand outs from my parents. The early
satisfaction that I could earn from my art
gave me inspiration to practice as a full- time
artist.
How do you work in terms of technique
and concept?
My concept is largely working with my
immediate environment where I take pic-
tures with my camera of children engaging
in their outdoor games. I believe that the
subject of children provides endless inspi-
ration to any creative person because of
their honest approach to everyday life and
random activities. You will find that most
of what they do is influenced by sponta-
neity and I am eager to capture that in my
work. Technically, my work is a fusion of
my background as a graduate in textile
design and my passion in photography and
painting. I combine these three elements to
birth my own style “Kassism” that at least
can be traced back to me by everyone. My
palette; with dominant greens, yellows and
earthy browns; is evocative of my immediate
environment which is bright and vibrant:
bustling with activity and freshness. None-
theless, I enjoy applying arbitrary colours on
my canvases as a symbol of disrupting the
usual, but still emphasise harmony in my
work.
What has been the major highlight of your
career so far?
In 2013, I sold my whole (sole) show to
a person I never met. This was a Dutch
professional who had been following my
work for some time. This incident gave
me huge inspiration and strengthened my
belief in my art career. I guess, every artist
feels the same way when they sell their
work. Another highlight of my career is
when I exhibited with some of East Africa’s
great artists like Jak Katarikawe (RIP), Sane
Wade and Brush Wanyu at gallery Watatu in
Nairobi. Sharing the same space with these
icons of modern and contemporary art in
the region was a lifetime experience. The
experience put my career on another level
altogether because I got the exposure and
recognition I had always desired.
Working as a full time artist in a country
like Uganda with a relatively small econ-
omy, what are some of the challenges you
encounter?
The challenges are quite many, but I can
quickly point out that one of the biggest
challenges for any artist in Uganda is the
public attaching monetary returns to the dis-
cipline. To be considered a successful artist
you must be rich and this sometimes is not
the case for many successful artists. None-
theless, there are many artists today who are
doing financially well something that has
helped change people’s perception about art.
Another problem is the small economy that
impacts the purchasing power of art over the
basic necessities. Obviously, one has to first
cater for other basic necessities of everyday
life before they can think of buying art.
How would you advise young artists who
want to tap into the growing East African
art market?
They need to grow their name locally first
then they can think of courting new markets.
The truth of the matter is the market outside
there is very challenging because the deal-
ers and buyers are looking for something
unique and really good. This is because it is a
well- exposed market.
Image courtesy of the artist
June. 21 - 27 2019 37
Traffic officer fines Female Driver for `excessive beauty on public roads’
A traffic officer in Uruguay alleged- public roads)”. To make his intentions land him in hot water, but after the ticket
ly stopped a female motorist and, obvious, the public servant also wrote “I was posted on social media and quickly
impressed by her physical looks, he pro- love you” in the ‘observations’ section of went viral; he is currently under investi-
ceeded to write her a ticket for “impru- the ticket. He was just trying to be cute gation for “using an official document for
dence while driving (excessive beauty on and never imagined that the stunt could unauthorised purposes”.

Man goes on
hunger strike to
win back lover
Going on a hunger strike
doesn’t sound like the most
effective way to win back
lost love, but it worked in the
case of one Indian man who
camped outside his ex-girl-
friend’s home and refused to
eat until she agreed to marry
him. Ananta Burman, a young
man from India’s West Bengal
region had been in a stable rela-
tionship for eight years with
Lipika when she decided to
marry another man. The young
man decided to stage a hunger
strike out the girl’s house while
holding a handwritten banner
that read: “Give back my eight
years”. Police were brought
in but he refuse to leave or eat
even when he became ill and
was rushed to hospital. The girl
eventually came around and
Ananta and Lipika were mar-
ried immediately.
Uber and Lyft drivers conned of $10,000
Three crafty thieves tricked
33 Uber and Lyft drivers into
turning over their phones,
allowing them to transfer more
than $10,000 in all out of the
cabbies’ accounts. The three
robbers between April 3 and
June 3 conned 33 drivers in the
Bronx, Manhattan and Brooklyn
into passing them their phones,
saying they needed to change
their destination but their
own phones weren’t working,
police said. The thieves then
accessed the drivers’ rideshare
accounts and transferred funds
to accounts they controlled. The
trio sometimes rode together
and other times committed the
crimes separately, according to
cops. In several instances, the
robbers threatened to hurt the
drivers if they did not turn over
their phones.
Scrap thieves steal
rail bridge in Russia
A criminal case has been
launched in Russia’s Arctic
region of Murmansk after
suspected metal thieves
made off with a railway
bridge. Local prosecutors
say the unknown perpetra-
tors removed a metal struc-
ture 23m long and weighing
56 tonnes from the bridge
- its main central span.
The bridge is not in use.
Residents first noticed the
disappearing bridge in May.
The theft of metal objects by
thieves interested in their
scrap value has long been a
problem in Russia.

Company offers $1,000 to anyone to use a flip-phone Man steals chickens to buy
fuel for his posh BMW
It seems smartphones. a week. The lucky
like only To celebrate the winner will have A man from China’s Sichuan province
yester- 30th anniversary of to record how long has been arrested for allegedly stealing
day flip- the first ever flip- it takes them to do chickens and ducks from several villages
phones phone, an Internet simple tasks like in Linshui County in order to buy fuel
were the and phone service texting and send- for his “thirsty” BMW. The car costs
hottest hand- provider Frontier ing emails with $290,000 (Approx. Shs1 billion). Police
helds available, Communications the obsolete hand- says nobody expected the culprit to be
but nowadays in Utah, USA, held, how much one of the richest farmers in the area,
they are practically has announced it sleep they get, and a man who happens to live in a multi-
antiques and com- will pay someone whether their pro- story villa and drives a luxury BMW.
panies are making $1,000 to ditch their ductivity increases Apparently, after running into financial
news headlines modern smart- during the one- woes, he started stealing people’s
for paying people phone and switch week experiment. domestic birds, breeding them on his
to use them over to a flip-phone for farm, and selling them off for gas money.

38 June. 21 - 27 2019
 World’s rarest
cars on show
By Agencies On the grounds of the Grand Hotel Villa the Coppa d’Oro Villa d’Este (Best of Show)

S
et on the shores of Lake Como, Italy,
the Concorso d’Eleganza Villa d’Este
brings auto enthusiasts from around
the world to admire the 50 of the
best cars built between the 1920s and 1980s.
Tickets for the exclusive event cost $550
(Approx. Shs2 million) and attendees were
treated to the rare sight of motoring “royal-
ty,” including the $12.5 million (Approx. Shs
47 billion) Bugatti La Voiture Noire and the
cult BMW Garmisch, which was built as an
exclusive homage to a lost BMW concept car
from the 1970s.
d’Este guests flocked to see the 1967 Lambo-
rghini Marzal once driven around the 1967
Monaco Grand Prix circuit by Prince Rainier
and Princess Grace Kelly. Not to mention
a 1955 Alfa Romeo 1900 Super Sprint La
Fleche considered the “aristocrat” of Euro-
pean cars; a rare 1967 “Nocciola” (hazelnut)
version of the Ferrari 275 GTB/4; and the
infamous 1970 Ferrari 512 S Modulo created
by Paolo Martin.
Describing itself as “the symphony of
engines,” the Concorso d’Eleganza Villa
d’Este event is now in its 90th year, and
following last year’s win for Alfa-Romeo,
award was won this year by an 1937 Alfa
Romeo 8C 2900B, owned by car collector
David Sydorick.
Celebrating the Alfa Romeo marque,
Mike Hanlon writes in New Atlas that
Sydorick’s 1937 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B
Touring Berlinetta “has achieved the
equivalent of a Tennis Grand Slam—the
only difference is that the tennis feat has
been achieved many times, and never
before has a car won so many globally
prestigious concours events.”
Source: Online

June. 21 - 27 2019 39
global comment
By Guy Ryder and Richard Samans
Toward people-centered growth
It requires sustained, increased investment in people’s
capabilities, purchasing power, job opportunities
G
rowth is decelerating in Europe,
the United States, China, Japan,
and other leading economies, as
the International Monetary Fund
and World Bank recently highlighted by re-
vising their global forecasts for this year sub-
stantially downward. At the same time, po-
litical and business leaders know they need
to do more to prepare workforces for the
labour market in an age of rising automa-
tion, stagnant wages, and greater part-time,
temporary, and contingent employment.
These two challenges – reinvigorating
economic growth and preparing people
for the future of work – are linked, but
not necessarily in the conventional
sense that macroeconomic stimulus or
improved efficiency constitutes the best
way to create job opportunities and raise
living standards. The experience of recent
decades shows that growth alone is not
enough to reduce the increased inequality
and insecurity accompanying the trans-
formation of work. Moreover, high debt
levels and historically low interest rates
have left policymakers with fewer tradi-
tional tools to stimulate the economy in
the event of another recession.
In this new era, government and busi-
ness leaders need to view the relationship
between growth and labour markets the
other way around. It is by upgrading
their social contracts and better equipping
their citizens to navigate the world of
work that countries can most effectively
boost their economic growth and devel-
opment.
That is the conclusion recently reached by
an independent Global Commission on the
Future of Work, organised by the Interna-
tional Labour Organisation and co-chaired
by South African President Cyril Rama-
phosa and Swedish Prime Minister Stefan
Löfven.
The commission recommended three
practical steps – all of which involve
investing more in people – that coun-
tries can take to improve social inclusion
and economic growth simultaneously.
Investing more in people is not only
essential to strengthen countries’ social
contracts with citizens at a time of rapid
technological change. It can also form
the basis of a new, more human-centered
40 June. 21 - 27 2019
growth and development model that may
be the best hope for sustaining the world
economy’s momentum as the two growth
engines on which many countries have
relied for years or even decades – extraor-
dinary macroeconomic stimulus and
export-led industrial production – con-
tinue to lose steam.
First, countries should increase public
and private investment in their citizens’
capabilities, which is the most important
way they can durably lift their rate of
productivity growth. Some governments
chronically underinvest in access to quality
education and skills development. But pol-
icymakers everywhere need to do more as
populations age and automation disrupts
both manufacturing, on which developing
economies have traditionally relied to
industrialise, and services, in which much
advanced-economy employment is concen-
trated. The commission therefore called on
countries to build a universal framework
to support lifelong learning – including
stronger and better-financed labour-
market training and adjustment policies,
expanded public employment services,
and a universal social-protection floor.
Second, governments, together with
employers’ and workers’ organisations,
should upgrade national rules and institu-
tions relating to work. These influence the
quantity and distribution of job opportuni-
ties and compensation, and thus the level of
purchasing power and aggregate demand
within the economy. Specifically, the com-
mission called for a Universal Labour Guar-
antee under which all workers, regardless
of their contractual arrangement or employ-
ment status, would enjoy fundamental
rights, an “adequate living wage” as
defined in the ILO’s founding constitu-
tion 100 years ago, maximum limits on
working hours, and health and safety
protection at work.
Moreover, collective representation of
workers and employers through struc-
tured social dialogue should be ensured
as a public good and actively promoted
by government policies. From parental
leave to public services, policies need
to encourage the sharing of unpaid care
work in the home to support gender
equality in the workplace. Strengthening
female voices and leadership, eliminating
violence and harassment at work, and
implementing pay transparency policies
are also important in this regard.
Third, countries should increase public
and private investment in labour-intensive
economic sectors that generate wider ben-
efits for society. These include sustainable
water, energy, digital, and transport infra-
structure, care sectors, the rural economy,
and education and training. The Business
and Sustainable Development Commission
has estimated that achieving the UN Sus-
tainable Development Goals could generate
$12 trillion of market opportunities in
four areas alone – food and agriculture,
cities, energy and materials, and health
and wellbeing – and create up to 380
million jobs by 2030. Capitalising on
these possibilities could help countries to
compensate for the labour-displacing and
potentially demand-suppressing effects of
automation and economic integration.
These three steps constitute a strategy
for all countries, regardless of their level
of economic development, to strengthen
both social justice and economic growth –
and, by extension, public faith in political
institutions.
In the heat of the financial crisis a
decade ago, leaders of G20 countries
pledged to build a more balanced and
sustainable growth model that embodied
lessons from the economic imbalances
and policy mistakes of the past. The
world has since made little progress
toward realising this goal. But the path
it must take is clear: sustained, increased
investment in people’s capabilities, pur-
chasing power, and job opportunities.
Guy Ryder is Director-General of the
International Labour Organization, which
organized the Global Commission on the
Future of Work. Richard Samans is Managing
Director for Policy and Institutional Impact
at the World Economic Forum and a member
of the Global Commission on the Future of
Work.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
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