Approaches for Climate

Change Mitigation and

Adaptation in Japan
Japan’s 2nd National Workshop on Economics of
Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth
Strategies in Northeast Asia

November 4, 2010

Yutaka Matsuzawa
Global Environment Research Office,
Global Environment Bureau,
Ministry of the Environment, Japan
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 Outline of Today’s presentation
 Update on approaches for Climate Change Mitigation and
Adaptation in Japan
 Mitigation
 Policy: Basic Law
 Fusion of science and policy: Development of Road Map
 Scientific research: Low Carbon Society
 Adaptation
 Policy: Guidance of Climate Change Adaptation in
Central and Local level, etc.
 Scientific research: S4 project to S8 project
 International Cooperation
 APAN, APN
 Co-benefit
 Mitigation – policy approaches
Bill of Basic Act on Global Warming Countermeasures
The Cabinet decided on the Bill in October, 2010.
The bill was re-submitted to the present Diet session.

Mid- and Long-term Goals

• 25% CO2 reduction below 1990 level by 2020
(premised on the establishment of a fair and effective
international framework by all major economies and agreement
on their ambitious targets)
• 80% CO2 reduction below 1990 level by 2050
• Raising the share of renewable energy(RE) out of total primary
energy supply to 10% by 2020
Key Policy Measure
• Introduction of domestic emission trading scheme (ETS) within
around a year
• “Greening tax ” system, including the consideration of a global
warming tax to be implemented from 2011
• Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system for whole renewable energy
Mitigation – policy approaches
Roadmap toward 2050

 -Draft
proposal by Former Environment
Minister Sakihito Ozawa for public consultation
(Announced on March 31, 2010)

 -Setting
milestones for measures and policies
necessary for a mid-term and long-term goal

 -Draft
proposal has been closely examined at
Environment Council
 Mitigation – policy approaches
Roadmap toward 2050
 Daily Life
 －100% achievement rate of a high energy efficiency standard
for all newly built homes and buildings in 2020 / 100%
achievement rate of zero emission homes and buildings for all
newly built homes and buildings in 2030
 －2.5 million units sales of Next-generation Vehicles in 2020
 Community Development
 –10% reduction of per passenger automobile use
 Manufacturing
 – Reduce energy usage 30- 40% by 2050
 Energy Supply
 － 10% of primary energy supply to be renewable energy
sources by 2020
 Core Social System for Creating Low-Carbon Society
 － Domestic emission trading scheme, Global Warming Tax
 Projection at Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
in 2020 and 2050 (unit: million tons of CO2)
Daily Life / Community Development
Energy Conversion ±0% at 1990
Commercial
Industrials Residential and other Transport Non‐energy
1990

2005

2007

2008

2020
(converted to
macro*1)
-25%
2020
(fixed macro*2)

(Possibly includes international contributions and sinks)

2050 252 -80%

*1: “Case of all sectors converted to macro frameworks” based on the pricing of carbon.
*2: “Case of industrials sector fixed to macro frameworks”
*3: Ratio of emissions cut to 2008. 6
Pathway to 80% Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
in 2050 compared to the Emissions in 1990
Description of Pathway which will minimize total cost from
2010 to 2050
Million tons of CO2
16%-21%
reduction in 2020

30%-36%
reduction in
2030

51%-56%
reduction in
2040
 Effect on GDP
When GHG domestic reduction will be achieved in 2020
respectively
-15%, - 20%,and - 25% compared to 1990, in each case how will
effect on GDP.
GDP percent change and its difference ratio against
BAU(business as usual; +4% GHG emission compared to 1990)
【 compared to 2005 】
◎Estimation １ ◎Estimation 2

GHG compared GDP GHG compared GDP

(compared
to 2005 loss (compared
to 2005 loss
to 1990) (vs. BAU) to 1990) (vs. BAU)

BAU(+4% BAU(+4%
25.9% － 21.6% －
) )

-15% 24.6% (－1.4%) -15% 21.1% (－0.4%)

-20% 23.7% (－2.2%) -20% 20.9% (－0.6%)

-25% 22.2% (－3.7%) -25% 20.7% (－0.9%)

Estimated by Prof. Toshihiko Masui in NIES Estimated by Prof. Kanemi Ban in Osaka Univ.
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Mitigation – policy approaches
Roadmap toward 2050
Research needs
 Evaluation of “cost” toward LCS: cost, insurance or
investment?
 Evaluation of economic impacts of early actions of
mitigation based on, e.g., game theory.
 Guideline for appropriate interpretation of the results of
economic modeling
 Appropriate combination of top-down and bottom-up
modeling
 Research on the potential of GHG reduction and
appropriate policy measures to enhance mitigation in
developing countries.
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Mitigation – Scientific approaches
Development of Low Carbon Society
Scenarios Toward 2050
 Conducted by NIES etc. funded by MOEJ
 Japan Scenarios:
 Developed in 2004-2008, updated until now
 Contributed to international agreement in G8, etc.
 Provide 80 % reduction scenarios in 2050
 Asia Scenarios(ongoing research):
 Country Scenarios: India, Thailand and Vietnam
 Local Scenarios: Iskandar (Malaysia), Jilin (China)
and Ahmedabad (India)

Please Visit: http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/index.html

 Adaptation – policy approaches
Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation
-Draft Guidance for ministries and local government-

Draft guidance focuses on common issues:

knowledge, process of the plan-do-see
Draft guidance is being developed by officers
/experts from different relevant ministries
Draft guidance proposes:
 Early, first action based on existing knowledge
 Future plan-do-see process
 Integration of the adaptation action into
existing policies, plans, actions
 Adaptation – policy approaches
Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation
-Draft Guidance for ministries and local government-

Common Knowledge to be shared by different

sectors
 Climate change observations and projections
 Impact assessments of CC and its observations
 Methodology of plan-do-see process
 Communication strategy
Possible cross-sector integrated policy actions
including adaptation actions
 Integration into Local development plan, etc.
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans 
and actions
 Adaptation – scientific approaches
Contributions of Scientific community

Climate change and its impacts in Japan (1996, 2001)

S4 project (2005-09), other climate model projects
Innovative program of climate change projection for the
21st century [Kakushin program] (2007-2011)
Wise Adaptation (2008)
Climate change and its impact in Japan (2009)
S8 project (2010-14)
Climate Change Impact Statistics (to be constructed
by 2014)
International Cooperation
 Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research
 Capacity building of scientific institutions in
developing countries
 Promotion of International research project in the
region
 Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Network
 Adaptation knowledge management
 Facilitation of adaptation knowledge application
 Informing Development/investment plan to support
adaptation approaches
 Assistance of developing countries to access
adaptation financial mechanisms
International cooperation
 Co-benefits cooperation initiated by MOEJ
 Japan-China (2007-)
 Japan-Indonesia (2007-)
 Japan-Thailand
 Japan-Malaysia
 EST by UNCRD
 Manual for quantitative evaluation of the co-
benefits approaches to climate change (2009)
 Asian co-benefits Partnership (2010?)
 Co-benefits approaches to climate change
adaptation as well as mitigation (20XX?)