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Approaches for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Adaptation in in Japan Japan Japan’s 2 nd

Approaches for Climate Change Mitigation and AdaptationAdaptation inin JapanJapan

Japan’s 2 nd National Workshop on Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies
Japan’s 2 nd National Workshop on Economics of
Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth
Strategies in Northeast Asia
November 4, 2010
Yutaka Matsuzawa
Global Environment Research Office,
Global Environment Bureau,
Ministry of the Environment, Japan

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Outline of Today’s presentation

Update on approaches for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Japan

Mitigation

Policy: Basic Law

Fusion of science and policy: Development of Road Map

Scientific research: Low Carbon Society

Adaptation

Policy: Guidance of Climate Change Adaptation in Central and Local level, etc.

Scientific research: S4 project to S8 project

International Cooperation

APAN, APN

Mitigation – policy approaches

Bill of Basic Act on Global Warming Countermeasures

The Cabinet decided on the Bill in October, 2010. The bill was re-submitted to the
The Cabinet decided on the Bill in October, 2010.
The bill was re-submitted to the present Diet session.

Mid- and Long-term Goals

25% CO2 reduction below 1990 level by 2020 (premised on the establishment of a fair and effective international framework by all major economies and agreement on their ambitious targets)

80% CO2 reduction below 1990 level by 2050

Raising the share of renewable energy(RE) out of total primary energy supply to 10% by 2020

Key Policy Measure

Introduction of domestic emission trading scheme (ETS) within around a year

“Greening tax ” system, including the consideration of a global warming tax to be implemented from 2011

of a global warming tax to be implemented from 2011 • Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system for

Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system for whole renewable energy

Mitigation – policy approaches

Roadmap toward 2050

-Draft proposal by Former Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa for public consultation (Announced on March 31, 2010)

-Setting milestones for measures and policies necessary for a mid-term and long-term goal

-Draft proposal has been closely examined at Environment Council

Mitigation – policy approaches

Roadmap toward 2050

Daily Life

100% achievement rate of a high energy efficiency standard for all newly built homes and buildings in 2020 / 100% achievement rate of zero emission homes and buildings for all newly built homes and buildings in 2030

2.5 million units sales of Next-generation Vehicles in 2020

Community Development

–10% reduction of per passenger automobile use

Manufacturing

– Reduce energy usage 30- 40% by 2050

Energy Supply

10% of primary energy supply to be renewable energy sources by 2020

Core Social System for Creating Low-Carbon Society



Domestic emission trading scheme, Global Warming Tax

Projection at Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in 2020 and 2050 (unit: million tons of CO2)

1990

2005

2007

2008

2020

(converted to macro *1 )

2020

(fixed macro *2 )

2050

Daily Life / Community Development

macro * 2 ) 2050 Daily Life / Community Development Residential C o m m e

Residential Commercial and other

Energy Conversion Nonenergy

a n d o t h e r Energy Conversion Non ‐ energy ± 0% at

±0% at 1990

Industrials

Conversion Non ‐ energy ± 0% at 1990 Industrials Transport -80% -25% (Possibly includes international
Transport -80%
Transport
-80%
-25%
-25%

(Possibly includes international contributions and sinks)

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Pathway to 80% Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2050 compared to the Emissions in 1990 Description of Pathway which will minimize total cost from

2010 to 2050

Million tons of CO2

16%-21% reduction in 2020 30%-36% reduction in 2030 51%-56% reduction in 2040
16%-21%
reduction in 2020
30%-36%
reduction in
2030
51%-56%
reduction in
2040

Effect on GDP

When GHG domestic reduction will be achieved in 2020 respectively -15%, - 20%,and - 25% compared to 1990, in each case how will effect on GDP. GDP percent change and its difference ratio against BAU(business as usual; +4% GHG emission compared to 1990) compared to 2005

Estimation 2

Estimation

 

GHG

compared to 2005

GDP

GHG

compared to 2005

GDP

 

(compared

loss

(compared

loss

 

to 1990)

(vs. BAU)

to 1990)

(vs. BAU)

BAU(+4%

25.9%

 

BAU(+4%

21.6%

 
 

)

)

 

-15%

24.6%

(1.4%)

-15%

21.1%

(0.4%)

 

-20%

23.7%

(2.2%)

-20%

20.9%

(0.6%)

-25% 22.2% ( - 3.7%) -25% 20.7% ( - 0.9%)

-25%

22.2%

(3.7%)

-25%

20.7%

(0.9%)

 

NIES

Estimated by Prof.

Kanemi Ban in Osaka Univ.

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Estimated by Prof. Toshihiko Masui in

Mitigation – policy approaches

Roadmap toward 2050

Research needs

Evaluation of “cost” toward LCS: cost, insurance or investment?

Evaluation of economic impacts of early actions of mitigation based on, e.g., game theory.

Guideline for appropriate interpretation of the results of economic modeling

Appropriate combination of top-down and bottom-up modeling

Research on the potential of GHG reduction and appropriate policy measures to enhance mitigation in developing countries.

9999
9999

Mitigation – Scientific approaches

Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios Toward 2050

Conducted by NIES etc. funded by MOEJ Japan Scenarios:

Developed in 2004-2008, updated until now

Contributed to international agreement in G8, etc.

Provide 80 % reduction scenarios in 2050 Asia Scenarios(ongoing research):

Country Scenarios: India, Thailand and Vietnam

Local Scenarios: Iskandar (Malaysia), Jilin (China) and Ahmedabad (India)

Adaptation – policy approaches

Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation -Draft Guidance for ministries and local government-

Draft guidance focuses on common issues:

knowledge, process of the plan-do-see Draft guidance is being developed by officers /experts from different relevant ministries Draft guidance proposes:

Early, first action based on existing knowledge Future plan-do-see process Integration of the adaptation action into existing policies, plans, actions

 Future plan-do-see process  Integration of the adaptation action into existing policies, plans, actions

Adaptation – policy approaches

Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation -Draft Guidance for ministries and local government-

Common Knowledge to be shared by different sectors Climate change observations and projections Impact assessments of CC and its observations Methodology of plan-do-see process Communication strategy Possible cross-sector integrated policy actions including adaptation actions Integration into Local development plan, etc.

Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions

Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions
Coordination among sectors for adaptation plans and actions

Adaptation – scientific approaches

Contributions of Scientific community

Climate change and its impacts in Japan (1996, 2001) S4 project (2005-09), other climate model projects Innovative program of climate change projection for the 21 st century [Kakushin program] (2007-2011) Wise Adaptation (2008) Climate change and its impact in Japan (2009) S8 project (2010-14) Climate Change Impact Statistics (to be constructed by 2014)

its impact in Japan (2009)  S8 project (2010-14)  Climate Change Impact Statistics (to be

International Cooperation

Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Capacity building of scientific institutions in developing countries

Promotion of International research project in the region

Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Network

Adaptation knowledge management

Facilitation of adaptation knowledge application

Informing Development/investment plan to support adaptation approaches

Assistance of developing countries to access adaptation financial mechanisms

plan to support adaptation approaches  Assistance of developing countries to access adaptation financial mechanisms

International cooperation

Co-benefits cooperation initiated by MOEJ

Japan-China (2007-)

Japan-Indonesia (2007-)

Japan-Thailand

Japan-Malaysia

EST by UNCRD

Manual for quantitative evaluation of the co- benefits approaches to climate change (2009)

Asian co-benefits Partnership (2010?)

Co-benefits approaches to climate change