2

GLOBAL ENSO ADVISORIES

INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS
CPC, NOAA/ International Research Institute
(IRI), USA
As of : 20 May 2019
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia
As of : 14 May 2019
SUMMARY
• El Niño is likely to continue through June-July-August (70% chance) and Sep-
Oct-Nov 2019 (55-60% chance).
• ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
• ENSO Outlook lowered to El Niño WATCH
• Most models indicate the tropical Pacific will remain at or above the El Niño
threshold heading into JJA2019, before cooling in late JJA and SON. By October,
five of eight models indicate a neutral ENSO state is most likely.

Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -Japan • El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific.
As of: 10 May 2019 • El Niño conditions are likely (80%) to continue until JJA 2019

APEC Climate Center, • The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests about 90% probability for El Niño
Busan, S. Korea conditions with a weak El Niño level (~53%) during May – July 2019, gradually
As of : 25 April 2019 decreasing to 70% during August – October 2019.

WMO, • The outlook for the second half of 2019 is currently uncertain. National
Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor
As of: 26 February 2019 changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.

PAGASA • It is likely that El Nino conditions will continue until JJA 2019 (70% probability);
As of : 22 May 2019 with a chance to continue until end of 2019 at weak El Nino level, but with high
uncertainty.

• ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory No. 4

RECENT CONDITIONS:

SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, above-average equatorial SSTs have weakened
in the east central Pacific Ocean, while persisting near the Date Line.
Atmospheric indicator(s)
CLOUDINESS
Negative OLR anomalies
(enhanced convection
and precipitation) were
evident over the
northern Philippines
and over the Date Line
and west equatorial
Pacific
Blue shading (negative anomaly) – enhanced convection
Orange shading (positive anomaly) – suppressed convection

• Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation) were

evident around the Philippines and Indonesia.
• Equatorial cloudiness near the Date Line typically increases during El Niño
(negative OLR anomalies) and decreases during La Niña (positive OLR
anomalies).
Atmospheric indicator(s)
Trade Winds and Cloudiness
The SOI value for the 30 days to 12 May was
−6.2, while the 90-day average was −8.3.

 Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7

typically indicate La Niña while sustained
negative values below −7 typically indicate El
Niño. Values between +7 and −7 generally
indicate neutral conditions.

• This indicates that coupling of the ocean

and atmosphere has occurred during the
past 3 months .

o Daily or weekly values of the SOI do not convey much in the way of useful information about the current state
of the climate. Daily values in particular can fluctuate markedly because of daily weather patterns, and should
not be used for climate purposes.
CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 19 May 2019

• El Niño is likely to continue through June-July-August (70% chance) and Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 (55-60%
chance).

Based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters. It

uses human judgment in addition to model output. A purely objective ENSO probability forecast
MODEL PREDICTION ENSO Outlook
Most models indicate that SSTs in the tropical
Pacific are likely to persist above El Niño
thresholds, meaning El Niño remains a
possibility in 2020, but with high uncertainty.

FORECAST SSTA
MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM20

Average
0.77 0.71 0.64 0.59 0.59 0.57 0.59 0.64 0.66
dynamical
Average,
0.69 0.66 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.73 0.73 0.39 0.52
statistical
Ave, all
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6
models

20 out of 27 models, El Nino until JJA

16 out of 24 models , El Nino until OND
11 out of 20 models, El Nino until JFM2020
 PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

 EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 4

• It is likely that El Nino conditions will continue until JJA 2019 (70% probability); with a chance to
continue until end of 2019 at weak El Nino level, but with high uncertainty.
• There is a chance to continue until end of 2019 at weak El Nino level, but with high uncertainty.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(JUNE – NOVEMBER 2019 )
 WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY
DURING THE PERIOD
(JUNE – NOVEMBER 2019)

Severe Local Thunderstorms

SW monsoon

Easterlies
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Low Pressure Areas (LPAs)

Ridge of High Pressure Area

Tropical Cyclones

Transition from SW to NE monsoon season

about our
Rainfall
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Maps..
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
AS OF 22 MAY 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) June 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 7 76 0
AS OF 22 MAY 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) July 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 1 21 47 14
AS OF 22 MAY 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) August 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 9 34 40
AS OF 22 MAY 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) September 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 1 36 38 8
AS OF 22 MAY 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) October 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 0 47 36 0
AS OF 22 MAY 2019
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Normal (mm) November 2019
(1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces
likely to
experience: 5 28 50 0
AS OF 22 MAY 2019
Monthly Rainfall
Forecast

Rainfall Condition (based

on recent conditions):
June – November 2019
AS OF 22 MAY 2019

PROBABILISTIC FORECAST

How certain or
uncertain are
we?

Forecasting rainfall in
probabilistic terms is a
way of expressing
uncertainty in the
future
weather/climate.
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal
(JUNE - NOVEMBER 2019) as of May 22, 2019 (JUNE - NOVEMBER 2019) as of May 22, 2019
PROVINCE
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
V PROVINCE
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN
JUNE

99.5
JULY

119.1
AUGUST

219.4
SEPTEMBER

66.4
OCTOBER

72.7
NOVEMBER

81.3
ABRA 82.6 117.0 72.5 132.1 92.9 35.6
BENGUET
IFUGAO
82.1
91.5
132.4
121.6
84.4
107.7
142.5
120.1
71.5
86.6
43.3
52.0
I ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
102.3
98.9
103.9
113.3
116.8
99.1
211.3
234.2
203.6
68.5
66.7
65.1
75.5
67.9
73.7
87.1
80.0
106.3
KALINGA 85.0 117.8 83.0 108.8 92.1 53.6
S
ILOILO 101.3 109.2 224.7 66.3 73.7 96.4
APAYAO 72.5 117.2 115.7 112.9 99.8 54.3 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 103.0 95.2 151.7 65.5 71.6 80.1
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 88.6 116.3 84.3 122.3 89.6 52.4 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

A
REGION I NEGROS ORIENTAL 101.0 88.1 143.3 72.7 70.8 84.6
BOHOL 102.8 64.7 114.3 63.7 79.1 78.9
ILOCOS NORTE 77.3 112.1 98.3 125.9 103.6 38.3

L
CEBU 102.3 81.7 140.1 60.3 80.0 86.8
ILOCOS SUR 84.2 117.6 67.1 144.6 81.8 38.0
SIQUIJOR 99.3 67.5 136.6 82.8 69.2 87.6
LA UNION
PANGASINAN
79.3
75.9
117.6
138.5
73.7
90.8
143.0
115.6
71.3
71.2
39.7
38.4 Y REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 94.6 127.6 187.0 33.9 77.5 88.4
REGION II EASTERN SAMAR 95.8 92.6 171.1 125.9 77.2 68.2

A
U
BATANES 98.4 140.3 97.5 92.4 93.0 94.9 LEYTE 99.9 76.2 160.5 49.2 73.6 90.6
CAGAYAN 74.5 123.4 126.4 99.5 101.3 57.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 94.6 94.1 180.7 52.2 80.6 93.2
ISABELA 97.9 102.6 130.8 89.2 87.8 54.5 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 93.7 116.4 184.6 81.0 80.9 87.4
NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
91.0
100.8
148.0
124.0
146.7
202.2
117.5
90.5
86.3
93.0
63.1
68.6
S SOUTHERN LEYTE
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
102.2 73.9 108.1 55.3 80.2 71.2

Z
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 99.1 68.6 111.0 86.2 72.5 82.2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 98.6 72.4 100.6 83.1 74.6 78.0
BATAAN 81.4 119.2 132.9 83.8 71.8 74.1 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 99.4 73.0 107.8 79.5 75.4 81.9
BULACAN 91.2 82.9 116.3 100.0 85.7 80.4 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
NUEVA ECIJA 88.6 108.9 115.1 108.9 82.1 80.7
M BUKIDNON 93.4 72.4 97.4 82.7 92.9 87.2

O PAMPANGA
TARLAC
ZAMBALES
AURORA
82.1
77.5
73.9
101.4
89.5
114.9
126.3
93.6
90.6
78.2
111.1
221.6
97.8
105.7
98.4
87.4
78.0
72.1
70.4
102.2
62.8
64.6
62.1
84.5 I
CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
101.4
93.7
95.9
97.9
80.2
83.4
66.7
85.5
105.1
78.4
92.8
107.2
69.7
88.4
96.2
75.2
84.4
82.9
73.4
95.5
83.6
81.5
82.1
79.3
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

N
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

N
COMPOSTELA VALLEY 99.4 85.1 60.8 86.6 82.8 96.2
METRO MANILA 93.2 105.6 158.8 87.5 74.6 85.8 DAVAO CITY 92.7 48.6 87.1 95.6 64.2 78.1
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) DAVAO DEL NORTE 96.3 70.0 73.5 89.5 78.3 93.9
BATANGAS 91.8 135.1 210.4 72.4 76.2 77.6 DAVAO DEL SUR 88.5 32.4 93.9 95.4 72.3 75.2
CAVITE
LAGUNA
92.1
96.7
130.0
97.7
182.9
215.1
78.5
84.4
68.7
77.9
112.0
109.5
D DAVAO OCCIDENTAL
DAVAO ORIENTAL
88.5
98.8
48.2
83.1
86.2
65.2
89.2
86.2
84.7
83.9
83.3
86.0
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
RIZAL
QUEZON
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
96.2
97.9
89.7
88.3
177.6
208.9
94.8
76.0
80.8
75.4
117.1
86.8 A SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
87.2
89.5
54.0
56.9
85.8
89.9
86.9
89.3
84.1
75.6
83.9
81.8
SARANGANI 87.7 55.0 83.5 86.6 86.1 84.7
MARINDUQUE
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
93.3
89.2
112.0
122.8
203.2
182.0
52.3
75.1
70.9
73.2
79.4
69.7 N SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
89.7 65.9 88.9 83.9 78.8 82.2

ORIENTAL MINDORO 89.8 117.8 188.2 67.6 75.0 74.3 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 103.6 79.7 144.3 61.2 95.4 91.5
ROMBLON
PALAWAN
101.2
94.2
119.3
103.5
176.5
158.9
61.4
78.1
71.5
73.7
83.4
81.0
A AGUSAN DEL SUR
DINAGAT ISLANDS
101.5
100.5
70.8
78.7
120.4
98.5
70.1
54.9
89.9
98.1
83.8
83.8
REGION V (BICOL) SURIGAO DEL NORTE 102.8 86.9 98.6 66.2 101.5 85.5
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
101.0
99.8
127.9
92.6
164.9
172.2
74.6
67.8
70.2
69.2
81.8
80.3
O ARMM
SURIGAO DEL SUR 104.1 70.4 122.2 66.7 90.5 81.5

BASILAN 103.6 85.4 111.2 67.0 72.1 71.4

CAMARINES SUR 100.7 111.4 156.7 69.3 72.6 82.6 MAGUINDANAO 90.1 77.3 85.5 82.8 71.0 83.3
CATANDUANES 100.3 89.9 135.8 50.4 71.2 71.8 LANAO DEL SUR 91.6 86.2 77.9 85.3 81.6 83.0
MASBATE 100.0 123.9 186.3 74.3 84.3 90.8 SULU 97.8 80.3 107.6 78.5 73.1 79.3
SORSOGON 100.5 110.0 171.1 68.0 74.1 84.6 TAWI-TAWI 89.5 89.1 91.6 119.3 85.1 74.9
 PROVINCE JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 182.6 281.5 236.0 345.2 791.3 539.1 316.1 429.9 367.5 392.0 628.2 509.7 132.5 267.7 221.4 9.7 128.3 85.3
BENGUET 275.4 315.7 297.6 856.0 1047.5 995.3 491.1 684.4 589.5 612.6 757.1 707.8 217.4 281.0 264.9 8.5 121.3 67.1
IFUGAO 166.6 282.0 226.3 256.6 982.1 574.6 281.6 544.9 408.7 279.0 685.3 482.2 215.1 272.1 246.4 92.9 129.1 116.8
KALINGA 138.3 244.5 178.7 235.4 626.0 364.4 232.4 377.8 291.3 228.4 535.3 352.0 246.4 282.6 267.1 123.1 134.0 130.9
APAYAO 129.9 198.5 163.0 237.9 399.0 310.8 266.6 471.4 365.3 281.5 449.2 365.6 191.5 342.9 273.1 83.0 166.2 134.1
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 155.1 288.6 223.3 259.1 865.8 551.7 252.4 503.0 370.5 264.6 680.2 477.7 240.5 271.4 257.5 115.9 130.7 126.8
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 185.5 255.4 216.3 358.4 568.7 440.3 371.3 562.2 464.9 411.9 541.6 483.2 104.3 235.1 183.3 4.5 115.4 48.9
ILOCOS SUR 245.9 316.8 287.5 506.4 1043.1 809.4 371.8 589.8 443.9 532.0 757.2 637.5 100.2 270.0 205.8 2.9 123.6 76.6
LA UNION 295.6 320.8 315.4 823.0 1037.9 951.4 516.9 635.6 578.7 616.1 756.8 712.7 193.9 270.7 248.0 3.3 105.2 64.1

L REGION II
PANGASINAN

BATANES
CAGAYAN
238.9

231.7
120.5
306.9

250.2
217.7
283.4

241.2
137.8
579.9

332.4
222.7
914.3

365.9
417.7
731.0

342.6
265.1
434.0

331.9
230.5
760.2

364.6
472.2
563.1

346.4
302.9
432.2

266.9
212.0
635.3

329.1
422.5
500.3

298.2
268.9
133.2

241.7
199.1
244.0

290.2
373.2
179.9

269.2
298.5
0.0

219.2
104.6
110.2

258.5
170.4
53.5

245.5
149.1

U ISABELA
NUEVA VIZCAYA
QUIRINO
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
134.3
211.5
197.9
216.4
282.9
235.1
171.4
244.4
218.7
157.2
403.3
177.7
476.1
997.6
660.5
219.7
731.6
385.0
230.5
395.8
357.0
413.1
581.0
475.3
305.1
475.5
431.4
208.9
286.9
208.3
420.9
685.5
417.8
236.0
491.8
288.7
204.0
223.7
220.2
360.9
455.3
458.0
263.1
282.8
334.7
95.3
57.0
106.8
306.5
348.3
349.3
145.4
151.8
234.6

Z BATAAN
BULACAN
NUEVA ECIJA
PAMPANGA
257.5
233.0
219.6
240.6
296.5
269.2
258.1
289.3
278.3
249.0
231.0
265.5
568.0
234.7
188.1
361.1
837.8
610.4
830.4
843.2
687.8
382.4
431.6
592.4
768.8
349.4
216.3
415.1
907.1
767.8
511.4
848.5
833.9
538.7
383.9
669.4
290.5
336.9
317.9
370.4
425.2
405.2
538.5
459.2
367.2
385.0
385.8
418.3
202.7
175.0
122.1
177.0
241.7
338.5
365.2
243.3
220.7
241.8
216.7
216.4
133.3
80.9
55.9
103.8
212.3
341.8
269.2
166.2
173.4
184.7
128.7
137.3

O
TARLAC 236.5 303.2 266.0 465.3 987.9 691.8 427.5 944.3 641.2 393.8 483.0 431.3 151.7 221.9 186.6 46.5 130.5 96.2
ZAMBALES 284.7 324.7 305.1 744.9 1141.0 955.5 645.3 1127.0 911.0 418.0 510.7 470.2 152.4 241.9 190.1 38.9 171.2 86.9
AURORA 208.0 250.0 227.6 181.5 413.2 261.8 368.4 477.1 433.6 205.8 395.9 263.6 283.6 539.7 412.3 237.4 398.9 339.7
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

N
METRO MANILA 241.2 255.4 249.2 425.7 501.4 467.3 652.0 764.3 718.0 263.9 361.0 320.6 155.9 254.8 203.1 80.2 186.1 121.2
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 205.0 246.2 222.7 289.6 527.2 401.8 419.9 721.0 547.7 140.9 255.5 185.4 160.1 315.3 225.3 119.3 340.6 187.5
CAVITE 230.8 249.6 240.1 432.3 528.5 482.3 609.8 735.8 680.3 213.4 286.3 245.4 147.3 200.5 165.1 97.0 216.9 145.6
LAGUNA 213.8 248.0 231.7 209.6 470.3 339.3 458.9 709.5 554.4 182.3 335.2 256.3 164.2 399.8 288.6 128.4 464.6 303.1
RIZAL 233.8 253.1 249.2 271.3 459.4 375.8 509.7 722.9 605.1 259.4 388.2 341.3 213.4 390.9 300.9 146.7 434.3 292.6
QUEZON 149.2 252.7 210.2 69.4 346.3 236.1 198.1 540.5 382.7 93.2 395.4 224.4 187.2 485.7 340.2 228.1 500.7 393.8
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 196.3 222.6 206.7 280.3 297.4 289.9 329.1 390.7 357.3 131.6 145.4 136.2 268.9 296.4 279.8 279.5 316.1 290.3
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 238.1 339.0 284.1 336.9 589.7 436.0 486.2 742.8 599.1 180.0 364.5 265.7 152.2 273.5 232.1 40.8 243.6 173.6
ORIENTAL MINDORO 228.6 326.9 267.1 300.6 518.8 371.8 428.0 668.2 509.1 153.2 331.2 220.6 180.0 275.8 242.9 77.2 269.3 194.0
ROMBLON 220.8 282.9 249.3 292.9 375.2 322.8 337.4 471.0 388.9 145.8 208.3 167.1 221.1 263.4 234.2 210.5 282.3 242.2
PALAWAN 170.7 348.4 236.1 142.3 587.4 303.7 229.3 926.4 458.4 157.7 378.4 208.9 147.4 263.3 198.4 82.4 183.8 156.6
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 210.0 224.8 218.5 203.8 358.0 332.9 276.0 375.9 351.8 128.7 219.1 202.1 223.6 271.8 244.4 331.3 390.2 372.9
CAMARINES NORTE 183.3 199.7 188.6 183.2 256.9 218.8 249.1 299.4 271.2 162.8 196.3 179.3 299.1 334.7 310.4 354.5 419.6 389.9
CAMARINES SUR 184.6 225.3 210.5 230.8 346.9 283.7 251.4 353.5 303.4 144.0 214.2 186.5 256.8 313.5 287.2 325.2 403.2 359.5
CATANDUANES 217.9 225.1 221.8 193.0 253.5 218.0 204.8 262.3 228.0 105.4 143.5 120.3 264.6 286.1 272.9 302.6 346.1 314.9
MASBATE 171.6 223.6 184.6 259.0 349.7 291.0 327.1 413.9 345.4 100.4 211.5 167.9 202.8 282.5 231.9 217.8 343.9 268.4
SORSOGON 180.4 215.4 200.5 196.0 352.3 259.4 296.2 367.9 336.2 128.4 219.2 170.7 229.3 245.9 236.9 294.0 383.3 350.3
V PROVINCE
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) MIN
JUNE
MAX MEAN MIN
JULY
MAX MEAN MIN
AUGUST
MAX MEAN MIN
SEPTEMBER
MAX MEAN MIN
OCTOBER
MAX MEAN MIN
NOVEMBER
MAX MEAN
AKLAN 256.9 293.0 270.7 306.2 391.6 328.2 479.1 644.7 547.6 149.8 216.1 170.0 189.3 239.4 212.9 160.4 225.0 194.8

I ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
269.0
241.3
327.8
324.8
292.9
334.6
298.4
271.5
332.0
321.7
306.2
362.8
506.7
334.2
386.8
346.8
315.9
372.8
505.6
460.4
679.7
796.4
709.2
872.8
682.7
592.5
787.7
169.9
151.0
204.1
312.4
176.6
216.9
190.4
162.2
211.0
192.4
184.9
205.1
239.4
201.9
218.9
204.3
192.7
214.9
158.4
160.7
179.9
225.0
215.7
198.8
176.6
183.0
191.3

S ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
214.7
223.6
329.6
335.5
300.7
291.0
294.2
226.7
368.8
395.4
335.6
337.6
390.3
296.1
908.5
658.9
718.5
446.3
155.1
157.9
204.3
221.0
182.0
194.4
188.8
169.2
217.9
229.7
199.8
198.8
170.2
148.6
248.4
225.7
193.5
180.2

A NEGROS ORIENTAL
BOHOL
CEBU
165.1
130.7
161.9
313.8
167.1
246.0
219.4
140.3
204.8
97.6
69.3
97.7
374.4
132.2
293.7
210.6
96.8
187.4
176.7
126.2
170.4
433.6
195.3
375.5
270.9
155.3
240.6
118.9
94.2
86.9
212.0
120.2
156.3
154.7
102.5
125.6
93.9
126.9
110.1
215.7
179.8
211.8
164.5
163.3
178.9
128.2
124.4
128.6
196.6
201.3
269.1
163.2
165.8
184.9

Y SIQUIJOR
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN
146.7

178.3
160.4

186.1
154.1

183.6
72.5

296.7
81.9

350.1
76.8

327.3
161.6

339.1
175.6

373.3
169.8

352.7
110.1

81.0
130.1

98.2
121.0

86.0
120.3

206.8
154.0

231.0
137.9

221.5
141.9

272.2
175.0

312.3
157.7

291.7

A EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
171.0
140.1
170.8
215.7
194.4
208.4
203.8
173.9
192.2
85.9
57.1
143.1
350.4
316.9
324.5
228.1
138.3
220.2
234.5
175.4
289.5
326.9
372.6
345.4
277.8
274.1
320.8
85.2
82.7
78.8
320.8
165.3
227.6
244.2
98.1
114.4
168.0
148.8
223.5
286.6
216.3
282.2
235.7
182.1
254.2
174.7
118.1
298.5
399.8
343.2
533.4
268.4
275.9
424.3

S SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)

SOUTHERN LEYTE
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
169.6
138.4
210.9
160.3
196.1
146.1
82.1
72.7
375.8
153.6
300.1
121.3
271.8
128.7
391.0
230.4
332.2
186.0
78.2
94.0
283.2
125.6
169.0
109.6
158.8
143.0
273.9
241.2
245.5
177.3
205.2
116.1
464.2
333.3
324.2
183.8

ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 176.9 254.1 229.9 100.4 214.5 161.3 182.1 286.9 235.5 109.7 207.3 176.7 142.3 183.6 174.2 96.3 330.8 197.6
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 172.4 257.3 226.8 135.3 201.1 166.4 163.5 255.6 194.5 104.6 207.3 165.9 123.1 179.6 158.3 67.6 229.2 146.6
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 191.4 245.3 221.7 150.2 180.6 165.7 184.5 256.3 222.6 127.8 182.9 159.2 161.4 174.7 165.3 141.7 163.4 150.4
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

M BUKIDNON
CAMIGUIN
207.6
145.7
278.4
155.7
256.6
150.5
171.7
129.5
267.4
146.1
225.3
136.5
168.5
136.2
316.5
148.0
259.4
140.5
156.8
117.7
242.1
127.3
220.5
121.7
175.1
189.1
312.5
198.3
235.6
192.5
95.5
192.8
191.4
230.3
168.7
205.7
LANAO DEL NORTE 225.8 259.1 245.6 192.7 254.4 224.0 163.2 203.8 172.0 185.2 212.6 195.4 153.8 209.6 170.5 113.7 189.3 156.5

I MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
208.6
161.2
255.7
238.9
236.2
200.1
123.7
129.3
193.7
240.5
166.0
184.3
165.9
148.0
202.9
229.1
182.6
179.6
181.2
101.0
206.0
207.6
197.1
160.3
163.0
180.1
187.9
231.7
174.8
197.1
161.6
95.4
289.4
207.5
209.2
151.8
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

N COMPOSTELA VALLEY
DAVAO CITY
DAVAO DEL NORTE
193.6
210.6
192.2
251.7
266.1
268.3
220.5
237.5
240.2
112.3
89.7
85.2
174.4
186.1
199.5
149.1
131.5
156.6
71.6
133.1
88.6
208.3
251.9
259.7
114.9
230.1
181.3
149.5
192.2
169.9
191.4
233.3
234.4
165.1
212.8
198.4
127.3
103.9
115.1
210.9
183.6
232.4
170.0
137.5
164.9
155.5
127.9
132.7
223.0
183.7
192.5
185.2
152.6
174.4

D DAVAO DEL SUR

DAVAO OCCIDENTAL
DAVAO ORIENTAL
153.8
126.1
169.5
219.9
175.7
240.5
188.8
142.2
197.9
51.5
50.0
101.6
103.6
109.9
156.5
74.8
65.3
137.1
130.0
92.3
81.5
239.0
168.2
150.2
186.3
118.9
103.9
130.9
100.2
144.8
199.6
160.6
169.7
169.7
120.6
151.7
117.3
123.1
144.4
161.3
178.7
216.4
144.8
151.5
180.2
121.4
101.9
165.4
170.7
185.3
231.2
151.9
150.9
190.9

A REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
122.0
199.6
200.3
278.4
154.1
254.7
51.2
94.7
159.5
281.7
92.9
200.5
71.4
183.2
167.7
258.5
117.7
231.4
93.7
169.7
158.3
236.6
119.4
213.3
84.6
136.2
165.5
191.0
138.1
169.3
65.4
148.0
162.2
191.4
126.3
178.7

N SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
120.4
167.4
170.7
232.5
133.2
198.6
50.0
64.7
137.0
229.3
72.5
163.2
77.9
122.3
137.0
195.3
97.7
153.4
92.8
126.0
135.8
182.9
105.1
151.8
93.4
144.2
166.0
168.2
134.8
163.8
67.6
140.9
172.2
175.6
121.4
162.0

A AGUSAN DEL NORTE

AGUSAN DEL SUR
DINAGAT ISLANDS
146.0
170.3
148.4
211.5
261.8
162.5
178.9
233.3
155.3
107.9
107.3
111.3
159.9
200.5
158.4
123.4
149.7
148.2
113.2
140.2
122.2
217.2
270.2
207.3
169.6
206.6
164.6
84.9
87.0
81.8
142.4
216.4
112.8
100.8
149.0
102.1
177.5
180.8
207.9
232.1
263.6
263.2
190.8
207.1
236.7
186.9
181.8
254.2
302.9
291.3
379.3
207.0
207.8
301.6

O ARMM
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
142.2
163.8
176.5
245.8
156.7
212.8
122.5
107.7
169.1
153.9
146.9
123.7
96.1
125.4
180.7
199.1
124.2
173.6
95.2
87.5
124.9
152.8
109.0
117.2
203.8
184.7
284.2
273.3
239.8
210.2
225.9
199.9
409.1
293.8
313.1
234.9

BASILAN 173.0 185.0 176.4 136.8 153.5 142.2 170.0 221.1 185.9 106.3 130.5 112.9 134.6 161.1 147.2 80.6 145.5 114.5
MAGUINDANAO 194.7 274.1 244.7 109.3 286.5 240.9 156.2 229.4 187.0 158.4 217.6 186.4 156.7 177.9 167.9 154.0 189.5 172.1
LANAO DEL SUR 237.9 278.4 262.3 230.1 285.2 264.3 166.2 257.9 200.0 186.8 236.9 210.3 157.8 203.7 179.3 145.2 190.8 175.6
SULU 188.3 224.9 209.5 157.6 221.2 191.8 184.0 293.0 232.3 132.0 172.5 161.0 158.7 173.7 163.7 140.6 150.8 144.6

TAWI-TAWI 228.2 253.8 230.3 215.8 298.5 222.1 252.4 410.4 264.4 175.5 206.1 177.8 165.0 175.3 165.8 140.6 147.0 141.1
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected
Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (JUNE - NOVEMBER 2019 )
Angat Magat Malinao Pantabangan San Roque
NAME Lake Buhi Lake Lanao
Watershed Watershed Watershed Watershed Cascade WS
MIN 238.4 202.7 214.6 195.4 131.9 221.6 275.3
MAX 253.0 223.4 274.6 284.2 140.6 246.3 307.1
JUNE
MEAN 248.1 216.6 251.4 246.3 135.4 230.1 290.9
%NORMAL 94.4 101.0 92.4 90.1 102.9 90.8 82.4
MIN 236.8 271.5 213.4 366.2 86.8 381.1 879.6
MAX 365.3 356.8 281.2 992.9 111.4 784.3 1041.1
JULY
MEAN 304.2 322.4 251.5 738.8 94.4 569.0 996.4
%NORMAL 75.6 123.8 86.2 137.9 63.8 144.2 142.1
MIN 398.1 298.0 159.7 342.4 133.2 381.6 539.0
MAX 557.6 371.7 262.8 564.8 179.0 472.3 679.3
AUGUST
MEAN 469.1 335.9 202.3 468.4 146.9 425.2 596.4
%NORMAL 134.0 162.0 80.1 121.8 109.7 160.4 91.9
way below normal MIN 380.6 185.0 185.5 352.8 99.8 325.1 594.7
below normal MAX 397.6 219.0 234.1 694.8 107.7 498.6 735.8
SEPTEMBER
near normal MEAN 392.9 204.5 210.8 537.3 104.2 393.3 689.6
above normal %NORMAL 105.2 74.7 85.2 124.3 63.3 108.5 139.8
MIN 240.0 228.4 165.8 221.9 163.9 251.2 222.8
MAX 332.7 299.3 260.8 309.2 173.2 389.0 281.0
OCTOBER
MEAN 287.5 270.5 197.6 256.6 170.2 307.8 267.6
%NORMAL 90.2 72.4 91.8 83.7 79.4 96.0 70.5
MIN 211.7 349.1 95.5 84.6 169.4 133.6 25.4
MAX 333.6 388.9 189.6 183.2 194.8 287.2 97.0
NOVEMBER
MEAN 268.6 363.0 155.9 121.8 186.7 193.3 62.6
%NORMAL 102.4 83.3 80.3 54.8 81.5 83.7 43.5
 FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER
SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR JUNE - NOVEMBER 2019
JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
SITES MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 225.2 90.1 494.9 133.4 400.7 147.5 376.5 108.5 266.9 92.7 152.8 86.4
ANGATDAM 227.8 93.3 434.7 125.8 422.5 188.7 335.5 100.6 361.9 107.7 260.4 94.9
APUNAN 225.9 92.0 542.4 144.4 414.2 169.6 371.9 105.7 323.5 99.6 210.6 85.8
BADAYAN 241.0 87.9 728.1 160.4 458.7 136.5 468.9 117.2 274.3 85.6 149.9 72.8
BINGADAM 250.8 93.4 368.1 82.8 527.6 117.3 387.2 101.2 263.8 93.9 233.2 102.8
BOBOK 249.9 91.9 409.8 87.4 591.1 115.4 377.8 97.2 242.4 88.2 175.0 84.8
BUNGA 243.5 93.3 311.1 75.1 460.7 114.6 390.8 104.2 251.8 89.7 224.7 97.6
BUYOC 247.3 94.2 286.2 72.9 444.4 132.1 397.5 106.8 283.0 89.6 263.3 99.2
DANTOR 251.7 94.8 335.8 79.6 508.9 137.4 391.4 103.5 299.9 91.6 286.5 109.6
DUMAYUP 249.3 91.5 401.2 85.1 568.8 109.8 383.4 98.5 238.8 88.6 177.2 84.3
HALONG 294.8 81.5 1009.0 143.2 627.0 88.7 700.2 140.8 273.4 67.7 51.4 41.2
IPODAM 296.5 82.2 1025.7 139.8 621.5 89.4 714.0 142.3 278.4 69.7 60.5 43.8
way below MAGATDAM 288.8 83.5 1013.8 143.9 592.7 97.2 694.4 140.3 276.6 73.0 72.9 46.7
normal
MAPUTI 292.0 84.2 1021.5 134.2 574.3 93.5 713.5 142.8 270.7 74.4 80.9 47.8
below normal
near normal MARIKIT 288.4 85.0 987.6 124.2 531.5 87.2 706.0 143.8 258.9 78.7 100.1 50.8
above normal MATULID 276.9 79.9 879.6 155.1 540.3 91.5 595.7 130.1 222.8 68.8 39.8 36.9
NORZAGARAY 192.7 96.6 354.3 118.0 342.7 125.7 345.7 104.2 221.9 85.0 103.0 51.4
PADALIS 251.8 88.8 698.1 120.1 449.3 96.6 574.5 131.3 260.0 88.6 125.8 52.2
PANTABANGAN DAM 220.7 91.1 534.5 118.7 388.4 100.1 470.6 120.2 249.5 89.0 124.9 52.4
SANROQUEDAM 251.5 90.3 832.6 149.7 489.4 135.1 554.9 124.7 256.8 83.3 119.1 55.4
STODOMINGO 231.1 93.7 594.3 134.4 451.5 142.2 467.4 115.5 234.4 84.7 122.9 55.3
TALAGUIO 236.5 91.8 613.5 125.9 440.7 117.8 509.4 122.4 247.6 87.5 120.2 52.1
UMIRAY 247.1 90.3 378.6 79.5 517.3 98.9 394.3 101.5 226.1 86.7 177.6 83.3
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
JUNE - AUGUST 2019

CATCHMENT JUNE 2019 JULY 2019 AUGUST 2019

MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
LUZON
Abra RB 185.9 303.0 247.5 83.2 356.2 1023.7 609.4 116.9 319.7 551.5 390.1 72.4
Abulug RB 127.9 194.9 159.9 71.1 235.6 396.2 304.1 117.4 317.1 468.4 371.4 121.3
Agno RB 239.8 307.1 275.8 78.4 568.2 1042.0 802.0 136.3 462.9 915.7 598.8 87.6
Bicol RB 188.0 222.9 212.6 100.9 233.1 354.9 308.4 119.4 263.1 370.5 325.2 160.9
Bued RB 269.1 304.6 287.2 77.4 744.2 992.1 845.9 146.1 437.5 684.0 532.2 80.3
Cagayan RB 120.8 284.2 186.9 90.6 157.2 997.6 373.4 119.2 230.5 564.8 345.4 128.3
Laoag RB 180.2 242.6 213.2 77.2 343.6 505.4 415.0 110.7 372.6 560.6 432.3 92.5
Pampanga RB 219.6 295.1 243.9 87.0 188.1 869.3 470.6 98.9 216.3 884.6 488.4 108.2
Pasig-Laguna RB 214.5 262.4 241.3 94.8 242.0 556.7 397.5 100.0 463.6 764.3 611.4 184.0
Sinocalan RB 262.9 292.5 276.3 76.1 695.4 803.3 736.4 145.7 434.0 526.5 486.1 78.6
MINDANAO
Agus RB 199.3 262.6 229.0 94.1 188.8 265.0 225.5 88.3 148.0 223.2 173.8 79.6
way below normal Agusan RB 167.1 261.8 228.1 101.2 107.3 201.6 149.6 74.1 76.9 269.5 193.4 114.7
below normal
Buayan-Malungon 126.3 167.1 144.9 86.9 50.0 68.5 53.9 40.6 71.4 154.1 116.9 85.3
near normal
above normal Cagayan de Oro 213.3 269.3 248.3 92.8 211.9 261.9 245.9 83.3 163.2 278.8 224.7 87.3
Cotabato RB 135.5 278.4 239.7 90.2 67.1 285.5 199.6 64.1 98.5 316.5 215.9 90.6
Davao RB 211.6 268.6 251.5 93.3 97.6 200.1 159.5 55.5 187.2 258.8 235.2 84.9
Tagoloan River 209.9 260.4 233.3 95.5 186.4 248.4 216.4 79.5 182.9 300.4 250.8 109.7
Tagum-Libuganon 220.6 260.9 241.2 97.8 128.0 194.5 164.3 77.4 104.8 250.8 168.9 71.6
 FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in millimeter and percent of normal (%N)
SEPTEMBER- NOVEMBER 2019

CATCHMENT SEPTEMBER 2019 OCTOBER 2019 NOVEMBER 2019

MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
LUZON
Abra RB 398.8 731.9 544.3 134.9 113.0 272.6 226.8 90.9 5.8 127.3 90.9 38.4
Abulug RB 287.0 442.7 364.6 113.2 189.3 356.8 280.0 102.6 85.3 168.5 136.6 54.7
Agno RB 412.2 738.9 519.5 118.3 136.9 281.0 203.6 71.7 10.4 126.1 72.5 50.0
Bicol RB 173.9 218.3 199.9 73.5 229.0 316.3 278.1 72.0 349.3 409.2 367.1 82.6
Bued RB 524.2 712.4 596.0 128.9 136.0 274.7 199.8 64.5 0.0 40.8 15.0 21.9
Cagayan RB 205.8 694.8 326.5 101.4 204.0 462.7 278.5 91.1 84.9 369.1 151.0 57.1
Laoag RB 419.4 526.7 482.6 127.1 105.3 240.1 202.2 110.5 7.5 112.3 49.9 31.4
Pampanga RB 305.5 542.1 394.9 104.5 122.1 401.4 222.6 81.6 58.3 330.6 145.3 77.4
Pasig-Laguna RB 184.8 391.2 295.8 87.6 158.8 391.8 256.1 78.7 80.2 436.1 228.6 101.3
Sinocalan RB 469.0 545.1 507.4 119.0 133.2 199.5 159.5 67.4 3.4 46.9 23.6 23.3
MINDANAO
Agus RB 170.8 222.1 196.0 85.6 179.6 208.0 191.9 97.6 95.8 174.1 131.9 74.7
way below normal
Agusan RB 85.9 216.7 149.1 71.8 155.4 251.2 198.7 89.3 175.6 272.5 200.0 86.5
below normal Buayan-Malungon 99.8 150.2 122.6 91.3 84.6 154.5 128.3 86.8 65.4 157.1 114.0 84.5
near normal Cagayan de Oro 184.0 236.9 217.1 83.7 204.7 260.2 227.5 99.9 95.4 175.1 136.5 80.2
above normal
Cotabato RB 102.5 242.1 196.7 85.9 121.3 312.5 184.4 80.1 100.5 191.4 172.3 84.5
Davao RB 194.1 234.0 221.0 92.6 109.1 219.1 163.1 73.6 128.4 187.7 168.6 82.8
Tagoloan River 165.7 230.0 198.4 77.2 209.5 298.9 255.5 99.1 110.6 175.8 148.7 86.4
Tagum-Libuganon 163.0 218.6 189.1 86.7 127.1 224.1 175.7 83.1 151.8 202.1 184.3 94.1
 MONTHLY MEAN Near average

TEMPERATURE FORECAST Slightly warmer

warmer
Near average

warmer

(JUNE -NOVEMBER 2019)

Warmer
Slightly cooler

Near average Near average

warmer

Warmer

Near average

Near average
Near average
Slightly warmer

warmer

Near average
Slightly warmer
Near average

Slightly cooler Slightly warmer Near average

Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer warmer

Near average
 DRY DAYS PER PROVINCE (JUNE – NOVEMBER 2019)
NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 16 14 14 16 22 25 17 14 14 13 23 25 1 0 0 -3 1 0
BENGUET 12 9 8 9 17 23 12 7 8 5 18 24 0 -2 0 -4 1 1
IFUGAO 16 13 14 14 18 20 16 14 12 13 19 22 0 1 -2 -1 1 2
KALINGA 18 16 16 17 19 21 18 17 15 16 19 23 0 1 -1 -1 0 2
APAYAO 20 19 18 18 21 21 21 18 18 17 20 22 1 -1 0 -1 -1 1
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 16 14 14 15 18 22 16 14 12 12 20 23 0 0 -2 -3 2 1
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 19 17 15 17 24 26 20 16 16 18 24 27 1 -1 1 1 0 1
(-) ANOMALY means
ILOCOS SUR 14 11 10 13 21 26 14 11 11 7 22 26 0 0 1 -6 1 0
LA UNION 12 9 8 10 19 25 12 7 9 4 18 26 0 -2 1 -6 -1 1
increasing number
PANGASINAN 15 12 10 13 21 26 16 10 11 8 20 28 1 -2 1 -5 -1 2 of wet days
REGION II
BATANES 19 18 15 15 16 15 19 15 18 12 17 16 0 -3 3 -3 1 1 (+) ANOMALY
CAGAYAN 21 21 20 19 17 16 22 21 20 18 16 17 1 0 0 -1 -1 1
means increasing
ISABELA 20 19 19 18 17 15 20 21 17 19 17 17 0 2 -2 1 0 2
NUEVA VIZCAYA 15 13 13 12 17 21 15 13 11 12 19 22 0 0 -2 0 2 1
number of dry days
QUIRINO 17 16 17 15 16 17 18 18 15 19 18 18 1 2 -2 4 2 1
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 16 12 11 12 21 24 17 10 12 14 19 24 1 -2 1 2 -2 0
BULACAN 14 10 11 10 16 17 14 11 10 14 15 18 0 1 -1 4 -1 1
NUEVA ECIJA 16 12 12 12 19 22 16 12 11 12 19 23 0 0 -1 0 0 1
PAMPANGA 15 10 10 11 20 22 16 9 11 11 20 23 1 -1 1 0 0 1
TARLAC 16 12 10 13 22 25 16 10 11 9 21 27 0 -2 1 -4 -1 2
ZAMBALES 15 11 9 12 21 25 15 10 11 8 21 26 0 -1 2 -4 0 1
AURORA 17 16 17 15 15 15 17 18 16 19 16 16 0 2 -1 4 1 1
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 15 12 11 12 17 20 15 13 11 9 15 21 0 1 0 -3 -2 1
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 17 16 16 15 18 18 18 17 15 13 15 19 1 1 -1 -2 -3 1
CAVITE 18 15 14 15 20 23 20 15 13 14 15 23 2 0 -1 -1 -5 0
LAGUNA 16 14 14 14 15 14 17 17 13 14 17 16 1 3 -1 0 2 2
RIZAL 14 11 11 11 14 15 14 15 10 14 14 16 0 4 -1 3 0 1
QUEZON 17 16 18 15 11 9 18 19 16 16 14 10 1 3 -2 1 3 1
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 18 17 19 16 12 11 18 19 17 18 15 12 0 2 -2 2 3 1
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 16 14 14 14 18 21 17 15 13 15 19 22 1 1 -1 1 1 1
ORIENTAL MINDORO 16 15 16 16 16 17 16 17 15 18 20 19 0 2 -1 2 4 2
ROMBLON 16 16 17 16 15 16 17 18 15 19 18 17 1 2 -2 3 3 1
PALAWAN 17 16 16 16 16 19 18 17 17 14 16 20 1 1 1 -2 0 1
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 16 15 16 14 13 11 17 17 14 16 17 10 1 2 -2 2 4 -1
CAMARINES NORTE 18 18 20 16 11 7 20 20 18 17 13 7 2 2 -2 1 2 0
CAMARINES SUR 17 16 18 15 12 10 18 19 16 17 15 10 1 3 -2 2 3 0
CATANDUANES 16 17 20 16 11 8 20 22 17 21 15 15 4 5 -3 5 4 7
MASBATE 19 17 18 16 16 15 20 19 16 19 19 14 1 2 -2 3 3 -1
SORSOGON 17 16 17 15 14 11 17 18 16 17 18 8 0 2 -1 2 4 -3
 DRY DAYS PER PROVINCE (JUNE – NOVEMBER 2019)
NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 16 16 16 16 16 18 17 17 15 15 18 18 1 1 -1 -1 2 0
ANTIQUE 15 15 14 15 16 20 16 15 14 13 19 19 1 0 0 -2 3 -1
CAPIZ 16 16 17 16 15 17 17 18 16 16 18 16 1 2 -1 0 3 -1
GUIMARAS 13 13 14 14 15 19 14 14 12 13 19 18 1 1 -2 -1 4 -1
ILOILO 15 15 15 15 15 19 16 16 14 14 18 17 1 1 -1 -1 3 -2
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 13 12 16 13 15 19 14 16 13 15 18 19 1 4 -3 2 3 0
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 16 16 18 16 17 19 17 19 16 18 19 19 1 3 -2 2 2 0
BOHOL 20 18 20 18 18 19 20 21 19 20 21 19 0 3 -1 2 3 0
CEBU 17 17 19 16 17 19 17 20 18 19 20 18 0 3 -1 3 3 -1 (-) ANOMALY means
SIQUIJOR 19 19 21 19 19 19 20 22 20 22 21 19 1 3 -1 3 2 0 increasing number
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 17 18 19 16 15 15 17 19 18 18 20 12 0 1 -1 2 5 -3
of wet days
EASTERN SAMAR 15 16 20 16 13 8 17 21 18 21 11 12 2 5 -2 5 -2 4
LEYTE 18 18 19 17 16 15 18 20 18 19 18 14 0 2 -1 2 2 -1 (+) ANOMALY
NORTHERN SAMAR 17 17 20 17 13 8 18 21 17 22 12 9 1 4 -3 5 -1 1
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 16 17 20 16 13 10 17 20 17 20 14 11 1 3 -3 4 1 1
means increasing
SOUTHERN LEYTE 20 18 19 17 16 14 20 21 18 18 16 14 0 3 -1 1 0 0 number of dry days
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 15 18 19 17 16 14 15 20 19 23 16 14 0 2 0 6 0 0
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 14 17 19 17 16 14 14 19 18 23 17 15 0 2 -1 6 1 1
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 15 18 19 17 16 15 15 20 19 22 17 15 0 2 0 5 1 0
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 12 12 14 12 14 17 12 15 13 15 15 17 0 3 -1 3 1 0
CAMIGUIN 19 18 20 18 19 19 20 21 18 20 21 20 1 3 -2 2 2 1
LANAO DEL NORTE 14 15 18 16 16 17 14 19 15 21 19 18 0 4 -3 5 3 1
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 15 17 19 16 16 15 15 20 18 23 17 15 0 3 -1 7 1 0
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 16 16 19 16 17 19 16 19 16 20 20 20 0 3 -3 4 3 1
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
COMPOSTELA VALLEY 17 19 20 18 19 17 17 19 20 23 19 17 0 0 0 5 0 0
DAVAO CITY 14 16 16 15 15 17 14 16 16 18 16 19 0 0 0 3 1 2
DAVAO DEL NORTE 14 16 17 15 16 16 14 17 17 19 16 17 0 1 0 4 0 1
DAVAO DEL SUR 16 18 18 18 18 19 16 18 18 20 19 20 0 0 0 2 1 1
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 20 22 21 22 22 22 21 22 23 26 23 21 1 0 2 4 1 -1
DAVAO ORIENTAL 19 21 21 20 21 17 19 21 22 26 21 17 0 0 1 6 0 0
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 17 19 20 19 20 20 17 20 19 24 21 20 0 1 -1 5 1 0
COTABATO 12 13 15 14 15 17 12 16 14 17 16 19 0 3 -1 3 1 2
SARANGANI 20 21 21 22 22 22 20 22 22 27 23 21 0 1 1 5 1 -1
SULTAN KUDARAT 14 16 18 18 17 18 15 18 17 22 18 19 1 2 -1 4 1 1
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 17 19 21 19 18 15 18 21 20 24 18 16 1 2 -1 5 0 1
AGUSAN DEL SUR 15 17 19 16 16 15 15 18 18 22 16 15 0 1 -1 6 0 0
DINAGAT ISLANDS 18 19 22 18 15 10 20 23 20 19 15 11 2 4 -2 1 0 1
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 18 20 23 19 16 11 20 23 21 21 16 11 2 3 -2 2 0 0
SURIGAO DEL SUR 17 19 21 19 16 12 17 21 20 24 17 12 0 2 -1 5 1 0
ARMM
BASILAN 18 20 22 20 20 21 18 21 21 22 23 21 0 1 -1 2 3 0
MAGUINDANAO 12 14 17 15 16 17 13 17 14 19 17 19 1 3 -3 4 1 2
LANAO DEL SUR 13 13 17 14 15 18 13 17 13 18 18 19 0 4 -4 4 3 1
SULU 20 21 22 22 21 22 20 22 23 21 24 22 0 1 1 -1 3 0
TAWI-TAWI 21 23 23 23 21 21 21 22 24 21 25 21 0 -1 1 -2 4 0
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
Updated : 22 May 2019

Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 31.3 38.5 32.9 37.5 31.4 36.4 31.2 36.6 29.7 37.0 29.2 36.6
Lowlands Luzon 31.5 37.6 30.5 37.7 30.3 37.1 31.3 36.8 30.4 37.0 30.0 39.4
Mountainous Luzon 26.1 28.1 25.0 26.5 23.7 26.2 25.4 27.1 25.2 26.4 26.4 29.3
Metro Manila 33.6 37.0 32.6 36.0 31.9 35.0 32.2 34.9 33.1 36.0 32.7 35.0
Lowlands Visayas 32.8 37.2 32.0 36.5 32.0 36.8 32.3 36.1 31.9 37.9 31.8 36.8
Lowlands Mindanao 32.9 37.1 31.9 37.4 32.5 38.3 32.5 36.5 32.0 36.5 32.1 37.0
Mountainous Mindanao 32.0 33.2 31.0 33.0 32.0 33.6 32.0 33.3 32.5 34.0 32.5 33.7

Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 17.3 24.0 16.8 24.5 18.8 24.7 18.1 23.9 13.8 24.1 15.0 23.0
Lowlands Luzon 20.7 26.7 20.7 25.7 20.0 25.3 20.8 25.3 18.4 25.0 19.5 25.8
Mountainous Luzon 15.0 16.1 15.0 15.7 15.1 15.6 14.5 16.2 13.0 15.1 12.1 14.0
Metro Manila 23.1 25.4 22.5 25.3 23.0 24.9 22.1 25.1 21.6 24.9 21.1 25.9
Lowlands Visayas 21.1 25.3 21.4 25.6 20.9 25.1 19.8 25.3 20.0 25.7 20.0 24.9
Lowlands Mindanao 18.4 24.6 18.4 24.3 17.8 24.1 18.5 24.6 18.3 24.8 19.0 24.4
Mountainous Mindanao 16.3 18.2 16.0 17.3 15.4 17.8 16.2 17.9 16.9 18.8 15.2 17.4
 Forecast Tropical Cyclone Frequency

MONTH NUMBER OF TC
JUNE 2019 1 OR 2
JULY 2019 2 OR 3
AUGUST 2019 2 OR 3
SEPTEMBER 2019 2 TO 4
OCTOBER 2019 2 OR 3
NOVEMBER 2019 1 OR 2

2019/5/22
SUMMARY:
• El Nino conditions will likely to continue until JJA 2019 (70% probability); with
a chance to continue until end of 2019 at weak El Nino level, but with high
uncertainty.
• ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory
• Rainfall forecast for the whole country:
• June 2019: generally near normal rainfall conditions except for patches of
below normal rainfall over Apayao, most of Region I, Cagayan, Tarlac and
Zambales;
• July 2019: Generally near normal to above normal rainfall conditions over
most of Luzon and the Visayas, while generally below normal over most of
Mindanao including southern Visayas;
• August 2019 – general near to above normal rainfall conditions over most
parts of the country
SUMMARY:
• September 2019: near to above normal rainfall over Luzon area, while
below to near normal rainfall will be likely in the Visayas and
Mindanao;
• October 2019: generally below to near normal rainfall conditions;
• November 2019: way below normal rainfall conditions will be likely in
Ilocos Region, while generally below to near normal rainfall condition
over most of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
• Above normal number of days with rain over the country in
August to September;
• Temperature Forecast: Generally near average to warmer than average
temperature is forecasted during the period;
• Tropical Cyclone Forecast: 10 to 13 TCs may enter/develop inside
the PAR
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor this
developing El Nino and updates/advisories
shall be issued as appropriate.
Weekly ENSO monitoring is available at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/index.php/climate/climate-prediction/el-nino-
southern-oscillation-enso-status

Next National Climate Outlook Forum (114th ):

June 26, 2019 37
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