Using Big-data to quantify congestion

in Indonesia Cities
David Ingham, Senior Urban Transport Specialist
South East Asia & Pacific, Transport Global Practice
 HOW BAD IS CONGESTION IN INDONESIAN CITES?

TOMTOM
Traffic
Index

Source: Jakarta Globe

WAZE Driver Satisfaction Index Waze Driver Satisfaction Index:

By Country only El Salvador, Philippines, Quatemala
and Panama Rank worse than Indonesia.
Of 186 Cities: Semarang ranked 145, Malang 146,
Yogyakarta 150, Medan 168, Jakarta 178, Surabaya 181,
Bandung 182, Denpasar 183, and Bogor 185. 2
WHAT IS “MOBILITY”

Provision of mobility for people and goods provides a critical

enabling environment to support economic and social
development of Urban Areas. The World Bank vision for
sustainable mobility, comprises four global goals:
a) Universal access;
b) Security and safety;
c) Efficiency; and
d) Pollution and climate-responsiveness.
But: Improving mobility should not be addressed in isolation,.
There needs to be parallel actions to Shift passenger travel to
Public Transport, and Avoid unnecessary travel
3
MEASURING “MOBILITY”

In this analysis, the World bank has addressed items a) and c), and to a limited
extent item d)
a) Universal access;
b) Security and safety;
c) Efficiency; and
d) Pollution and climate-responsiveness.

To quantify access to economic and social opportunities, in conjunction with the

efficiency of the urban road transport system, three parameters were used:
Travel time, Travel Speed, and Congestion Intensity*.
* Percentage by which measured travel time exceeds free-flow travel time
4
WHAT IS CONGESTION?
There are many definitions, but we defined “Congestion” as the travel time
incurred by road users in excess of that normally incurred due to impedance
caused by other vehicles.
This may be OK academically, but from a road user perspective taking one minute
longer on a 30 minute trip would not be considered as a congested trip.
So we defined a congestion “threshold” as travel time more than 25% longer than
“free-flow” conditions.
We aimed to quantify “Congestion” within Indonesian Metropolitan Areas, to assist
urban planning and provide a measure for comparison amongst Indonesian cities,
by:
• Deriving a single figure that is representative of travel conditions in each city
• Assessing how that figure varies by time of day
• Quantifying the extent of congestion 5
THE IDEAL APPROACH: LINK BASED

1. Define traffic volumes and lengths for each link in each metropolitan area.
2. Calculate network-level veh-km of travel
3. Measure travel time on each link, for each hour of the day
4. Calculate network level vehicle-hours of travel
5. Derive network level, average speed per hour of day

Clearly the above is extremely resource intensive, and impractical for even a
single Metropolitan Area, let alone a national study. Estimates for the above
data can be obtained from calibrated travel demand models, but only a few
Indonesian cities have this.

6
THE APPROACH USED IN THIS STUDY: ROUTE BASED

1. 28 Metropolitan area were identified based upon Kabupaten

Boundaries, Population size, and inter-Kabupaten Commuting flows.
Kecamatans were used for Traffic Analysis Zones in each Metro.
2. “Sketch Planning” travel demand models for each Metro area to give
relative travel demand for each trip interchange
3. “Big Data” obtained from Google Traffic API was used to define the
shortest time route for each inter-zonal trip in each Metro area, for
each hour of a typical weekday. Travel time and route distance
were extracted per route.
4. Post-processing was done to derive hourly travel speeds, free-flow
speed and congestion intensity for each trip interchange.
5. .Hourly average performance measures were calculated by
weighting the performance measures for each trip interchange by
the relative travel demand. Daily measures were obtained by
weighting the hourly values by an assumed daily traffic distribution
7
DEFINING METROPOLITAN AREAS

1. A metropolitan area was defined in the Indonesia Urbanization Flagship

Report as:
a) Either a “Kota” or include a Kota
b) Population > 500,000
c) Population density > 1,500 persons / sq. km
d) A multi district Metropolitan area has commuting flows exceeding 7.5%, as
reported in the Indonesia’s National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS).
2. A total of 21 multi-district metro areas were identified, accounting for 52 percent
of the national urban population in 2016. Of these multi-district metros, 15 are
on Java-Bali, 3 on Sumatera, 2 on Kalimantan, and 1 on Sulawesi.
3. Seven single district metropolitan area were defined.
4. Study area, and zone, boundaries defined for each Metro in QGIS using the
Database of Global Administrative Areas (https://gadm.org/maps/IDN.html) 8
THE SKETCH PLANNING APPROACH: SIMPLISTIC “4 STEP”

1. Trip generation using geospatial analysis of open source (global) raster data:
a) Productions based on zonal population (http://www.worldpop.org.uk)
b) Uniform trip generation rate of 0.5 vehicle trips / population
c) Attractions based on Night Light Intensity, as a surrogate for economic
activity. (https://ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_dnb_composites.html)
2. Trip distribution using a negative exponential gravity model, calibrated so that
average trip length equaled 30% of the “radius” of each Metro.
3. Uniform Modal Split 80% Motorcycle, 10% Car, 10% Public Transport.
4. Route assignment, shortest time from Google Traffic API.

9
EXAMPLE SKETCH PLANNING: JABODETABEK

3 Provinces: DKI Jakarta, Banten, West Java.

10 Kotas (Cities) & 3 Kabupatens (Regencies)
186 Kecamatans (Sub-districts)

Metro Area Administrative 10

POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT: JABODETABEK

Population density per Night Light Intensity per 750m grid from National
100m grid from WorldPop Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

GIS Overlay of Metro

and Kecamatan
Boundaries

Population, 32 Million (2015, Est) Employment 11

TRIP GENERATION & DISTRIBUTION: JABODETABEK

Trip Generation Trip Distribution

12
USING “BIG DATA” TO QUANTIFY MOBILITY

1. Google Maps records the movement of smartphones

that have “location services” enabled. This is used to
estimate travel time (both current) and historical on all
links in the road network, and thus derive travel time
between any two points.
2. Google has made this functionality publicly available
through Google Application Program Interface (API) to
enable App developers to incorporate routing into their
website or App.
3. A relatively simple “Python” code was written to query
the API via the internet and extract the travel time and
distance for the shortest time route between two points.
13
USING “BIG DATA” TO QUANTIFY MOBILITY (2)

1. QGIS was used to determine the coordinates of

the geographical centroid of each Kecamatan and
an input file listing the coordinates for all
centroids in the study area was created
2. The python code queried the API for the shortest
time route on a typical weekday between every
Kecamatan for each hour of the day.
3. This effectively gave hourly matrices of travel
times between each Kecamatan.
4. The relative travel demand from the sketch
planning analysis was used to determine
weighted average travel time, speed and
congestion intensity per hour. 14
EXAMPLE OUTPUT: HOURLY TRAVEL SPEEDS IN SARBAGITA

45

90th Percentile
Weighted Average Speed
40
10th Percentile
Travel Speeds (km/h)

35

32 32 32
31 31 31
31 30
30 30
29 29
27 27
26 26 27 27 26 26 26 26
25 25 25
24

20
0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

Time of day

15
 EXAMPLE OUTPUT: CONGESTION* IN KOTA DENPASAR

90th Percentile
50% Average CI
10th Percentile
42%
40%

32%
29% 29% 30%
28% 27%
25% 25% 25% 25%
24% 25%

19% 20%

13%
11% 12%

6%
4% 5%
1% 1% 1%
0%
0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

Time of day
* Percentage by which travel time exceeds free-flow travel time
16
EXAMPLE OUTPUT: BANDUNG

17
EXAMPLE OUTPUT: TRAVEL TIME CONTOURS

Bandung

Jabodetabek

18
NATIONAL HOURLY VARIATION IN CONGESTION: FULL METRO AREAS

75%
Average Full Metro Areas

Jakarta, 59%
Congestion Intensity

50% Ujung Pandang, 41%

Jakarta, 43% Jabodetabek, 42.4%

Palembang, 38.6%
Jambi, 38%

Palembang, 32%

28%
25% 26% 26%
24%
23% 23% 22% 23% 21%
20% 21% 21%
17% 18%
15%
13%
11%
9%
Pasuruan Sukabumi
5% 5%
4% 3% 3%
2% Banjarmasin Bandar Lampung
0%
0:00

5:00
1:00

2:00

3:00

4:00

6:00

7:00

8:00

9:00

10:00

15:00

16:00

20:00

21:00
11:00

12:00

13:00

14:00

17:00

18:00

19:00

22:00

23:00
Time of day
19
NATIONAL HOURLY VARIATION IN CONGESTION: CORE AREAS

75%
Average Core Areas Kota Bandung, 65%

Kota Medan, 64%

Kota Surakarta, 59%

Kota Magelang, 58% Kota Makassar, 55%
Kota Bukittinggi, 52%
Jakarta Pusat, 52%
Congestion Intensity

50%

39%
36% 35% 35%
32%
33% 33% 33%
31% 31% 31%
27% 27%
25% 24%
21% 20%
15%
Kota Blitar 13%
Kota Sukabumi Kota Probolinggo
7% 7%
5%
3% 2% 2% Kota Banjarmasin
0%
0:00

1:00

2:00

3:00

4:00

5:00

6:00

7:00

8:00

9:00

10:00

11:00

12:00

13:00

14:00

15:00

16:00

17:00

18:00

19:00

20:00

21:00

22:00

23:00
Time of day
20
RANKING OF MOBILITY IN INDONESIAN METROPOLITAN AREAS

21
RANKING OF MOBILITY IN INDONESIAN CITIES

22
MOBILITY IN INDONESIAN CITIES

Speed Travel Time Congestion

Intensity

Core Areas
Peak Hour 21 km/h 29 Minutes 41%
Daily Average 23 km/h 26 Minutes 26%
Full Metro Areas
Peak Hour 26 km/h 49 Minutes 30%
Daily Average 28 km/h 45 Minutes 19%
23
 CONGESTION IMPACTS WERE CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED AT USD
4 BILLION PER ANNUM, WITH USD 3 BILLION IN JABODETABEK

1. Excess travel time,

2. Increased fuel use
3. Increased vehicle
operating costs
4. Increased collisions
5. Increased logistics
costs.
6. Public health impacts
7. Reduced quality of life.
8. The analysis used only
Time and Fuel.
24
CONCLUSION ON MOBILITY IN INDONESIAN CITIES

1. Peak Hour travel speeds average 21 km/h in the cores areas, but speeds are
slow throughout the day and night with the fastest average speed occurring
around 3 AM being only 28 km/h.
2. There is no marked reduction in travel speed during the morning peak, with
congestion increasing throughout the day until 5 PM.
3. Peak hour congestion results in trips in the core of metropolitan areas taking
41% longer in the peak hour, and 26% longer on average across the day,
than at 3 AM.
4. The most congested areas are Kota Bandung, Kota Medan, Kota Balikpapan,
Kota Surakarta and Kota Magelang.
5. Costs of congestion in the 28 metro areas was approximately USD 4 Billion of
which USD 3 Billion is in Jabodetabek.
25
DETAILED COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

26
FREE-FLOW SPEED IS VERY LOW & NOT RELATED TO POPULATION

27
WEALTHIER REGIONS HAVE HIGHER FREE-FLOW SPEED

28
PEAK HOUR SPEED IS ALSO NOT RELATED TO POPULATION!

29
PEAK HOUR SPEED IS INVERSELY RELATED TO DENSITY

30
CONGESTION INTENSITY IS RELATED TO DENSITY

31
DAILY CONGESTION IS ALSO RELATED TO DENSITY

32