Second Live Event of SC0x 2019

Dr. Inma Borrella, SC0x Course Lead

Ms. Andrea Moreno, SC0x Teaching Assistant

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Agenda

• SC0x contents and pace

• Getting ready for the final exam
• Exam preparation – Statistics
• Confidence intervals
• Hypothesis testing

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SC0x contents and pace

Module 5 19%

effort/time estimation
Module 4 29%

Module 3 26%

Module 2 13%

Module 1 14%

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SC0x Final Exam – How to prepare

• Solve the problems in the “Test your knowledge” section of each Module

• Check the Exam Prep section, where we solve problems from previous exams

• Solve the Practice Exam that will become available one week before the Final Exam opens

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Exam Prep – Problem 2

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Exam preparation – Statistics
Based on Problem 2 of Exam Prep Section
Confidence intervals – P2 Question 1

Q1 – Sample {n=136, mean=16.25, stdev=8.83}

90% prediction interval

90% confidence interval

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Confidence intervals – P2 Question 1

Prediction interval p%
x – sample mean
We want to find bounds such that if we randomly choose a data point
s – sample standard deviation
from the population, it will fall between them p% of the time.
c – confidence value
⎡ x − cs, x + cs⎤
⎣ ⎦

Confidence interval p%
We want to find bounds from the sample mean such that the population
mean (the true mean) will fall between them p% of the time.

⎡ cs cs ⎤
⎢x − , x+ ⎥
⎣ n n⎦ ⍺/2 ⍺/2
-z
-y 0 z
y
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Confidence intervals – P2 Question 1

Q1 – (n=136, mean=16.25, stdev=8.83) -- Normal distribution

90% prediction interval

⎡ x − cs, x + cs⎤
⎣ ⎦
⍺/2 ⍺/2
-z
0
- y 16.25 z
y

1.7 30.8
⍺/2 ⍺/2
-z 0 z

90% confidence interval c=z=norm.s.inv(1-∝/2)

⎡ cs cs ⎤
⎢x − , x+ ⎥
⎣ n n⎦

15 17.5
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Hypothesis testing – P2 Questions 2 and 3

Q2 – Has the introduction of new evaluation methods had any impact in suppliers’ delivery date?

Sample {n=138, mean=21.38, stdev=10.56}

Previous mean = 20.31

Hypothesis test

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Hypothesis testing – P2 Questions 2 and 3

Choose between two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive alternatives:

H0 – The null hypothesis

This is the hypothesis that nothing changes.
Cannot be rejected unless data argues overwhelmingly otherwise.

H1 – The alternative hypothesis

Other possible outcomes

Result: Reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.

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Hypothesis testing – P2 Questions 2 and 3
1. Formulate your hypothesis H0 and H1

Normal dist for n>30

2. Select test statistics T-dist for n≤30

One-tail – greater or smaller than

3. Determine type of test Two-tail – different than

p% confidence - # value
4. Pick significance level and critical value Critical value (z or t)

⎛ n⎞
5. Calculate test statistics ( )
c = x − µ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝ s ⎠

6. Compare test statistic to critical value OR compare p-value to ∝ value

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Hypothesis testing – P2 Questions 2 and 3

If !"#! #!$!%#!%&# ≥ &(%!%&$) *$)+"

we can reject the null hypothesis

If , − *$)+" ≤∝
we can reject the null hypothesis

⍺
p-value

0 z
t
Critical Test
value statistics

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Hypothesis testing – P2 Questions 2 and 3
Q2 – Has the introduction of new evaluation methods had any impact in
suppliers’ delivery date?
Sample {n=138, mean=21.38, stdev=10.56}
Previous mean = 20.31
⍺/2 ⍺/2
Hypothesis test | H0: Same as before | H1: Different than before -z 0 z
-z z

n=138 à Normal distribution

Two-tail test

Q3 – Are there more delays now than before introducing the new evaluation methods?
Sample {n=12, mean=21.38, stdev=10.56}
Previous mean = 6.16

Hypothesis test | H0: Less or equal than before | H1: Greater than before ⍺
0 z
n=12 à t-distribution t
One-tail test

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