Net Assesment Venezuela

NET ASSESSMENT OF VENEZUELA
NET ASSESSMENT OF
VENEZUELA TO PROVIDE AN
INSIGHT INTO THE HISTORY
AND DRAW CONTOURS OF
SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE
HDMC 15
CARIAPPA DIVISON
DS GUIDE –
i
CERTIFICATE
All reference material used for the study has been taken from unclassified
sources. There is no classified matter in the text of the paper. The paper is
original and the analysis is based on the views and findings of the Participant
Cluster.
Ser Service No Rank & Name Contribution in Sign

No Research & Prep
of Solution
1. Syn Ldr – Net
Assessment, Strat,
Scenarios & Coord
2. Envt scan &
Scenario bldg
3. Envt scan &
scenario bldg
4. BMC & Envt scan
5. Envt scan &

Scenario bldg
ii
Table of Contents
1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 1-2
2. National Vision, Aims and Objectives ................................................. 3-5
3. BMC Analysis ..................................................................................... 6-35
4. External Scan(Regional) .................................................................. 36-61
5. External Scan(Global) .................................................................... 62-146
6. SWOT Analysis .............................................................................. 147-175
7. Scenario Building .......................................................................... 176-199
8. National Security Strategies ......................................................... 200-205
9. Implications for India, Pak and China.......................................... 206-207

2
NET ASSESSMENT OF SECURITY ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT OF

NATIONAL INTERESTS AND SECURITY OBJECTIVES FOR VENEZUELA
INTRODUCTION
Historical Perspective
1. Basic Beliefs and Values. Venezuela derives its belief and core
values from
2. Aim. To carry out a Net Assessment of the National Security Environment

of Venezuela to facilitate formulation of National Security Interests and Objectives
of Venezuela.
3. The Net Assessment has been covered in the fwg parts:-
(a) Part I - Introduction.
(b) Part II - National Aim and Security Objectives.
(c) Part III - BMC Analysis.
(d) Part IV - Regional Micro Scan.
(e) Part V - Global Mega Scan.
(f) Part VI - SWOT Analysis.
(g) Part VII - Scenario Building.
(h) Part VIII - Implications for India, Pak and China.

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PART II : NATIONAL VISION, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
National Vision
4. To transform Venezuela into a
National Aim
5. Security & Stability
6. Economic Devp Ensure self reliance, inclusive growth and prosperity

based on a strong stable and growing economy.
7. Social Devp Develop Social equity and environmental sustainability in a

tolerant and pluralist harmonious society which is proud of its Islamic heritage.
National Msn
8. Security & Stability

(a) To ensure.
(b) To formulate
9. Pol and Governance

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
10. Economic Devp
(a) .
(b) .
4
(c) .
11. Social Devp
(a) .
(b) .
(c) .
(d) .
National Interests
12. Some of the specific National Interests are: -
(a) Unity and territorial integrity of Venezuela.
(b) Secure & stable internal & external environment that is conducive to
safety, security & development of the nation & its citizens.
(c)
National Security Objectives
13. Short Term.
(a) .
(b) .
(c) .
(d) .
(e) .
14. Mid Term.
(a) .
(b) .
(c) .
(d) .
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15. Long Term.
(a) .
(b) .
(c) .
PART III : BMC ( INTERNAL SCAN)
Base
Geo – Spatial Base
16. Surface and Dimension of Territory. Venezuela is a.

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17. Strategic Location & Frontiers.
Geo-Material Base
18. Land Resource Profile.
(a) Total area. sq km
(b) Arable land. (14.73%)
(c) Under Cultivation. sq km.
(d) Not under Cultivation (due lack of water). sq km
(e) Coast Line

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19. Dimensions and Fertility of Arable Land. .

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20. Water Resources.
21. Natural Energy Sources Venezuela is an energy deficient nation

as it is not self reliant and self sustaining. The nation has _____ oil reserves
whereas it has worthwhile gas reserves which is being utilized to meet domestic
consumption. Alternate energy sources viz Wind and Solar are available to be
optimally utilized. The details are given out in the table below:-
OVERALL ENERGY SOURCES
Resource Value Units Rank

Area(km²) Class 3-7
Wind Potential Wind at 50m
Solar Potential MWh/year
Coal Reserves Million Short Tons
Natural Gas Cubic Meters (cu m)

Reserves
Oil Reserves Barrels (bbl)
22. Oil Resources. Venezuela has five major and one minor sedimentary
basin all of which are under explored. The oil resources are as depicted:-
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23. Minerals and Raw Material. Venezuela has huge deposits of
Geo-Demographic Base
24. Size and Age Profile. The current population of the of Venezuela is
estimated to be about _____million people, with an annual increase of ___%.
25. Population Density. The Population density of Venezuela is ___

people per square kilometer with a global rank of ___. Venezuela's Population
density had a positive growth of ___ (%) in the last 10 years from ().
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26. Ethnic Homogeneity and Religion. .
(a) Religion
27. Culture and Language.

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Strengths based on Base.
28. Natural Resources. Venezuela has huge deposits
29. Young Population. ___ % of the population is below 25 yrs of age and
thus form a huge potential for a productive workforce in the near future, if
gainfully employed.
30. Religious Affinity.
31. Cultural Heritage.

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32. Natural Gas reserves.
33. Defensible Terrain.
Weaknesses based on Base
34. Land Locked Country
35. Water Scarcity
Means
Economy
36. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)..

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37. Sectoral Contribution to GDP. The sectoral contribution to GDP is as

follows:-
38. Major trading partners.
39. Economy – Sectors. The sectorwise contribution of economy is as follows:-
(a) Biggest sector - Services.
(b) Agriculture. Agriculture creates ___ % of the output.
(c) Manufacturing and Mining. Manufacturing and mining constitute

__%.
(d) Construction. __ %.
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40. GDP (incl Opium) Growth Rate by Sector. The GDP(incl Opium) growth
rate by sector is depicted below:-
41. Minerals, Oil, and Natural Gas.

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Venezuela’s Areas of Extractive Resources
42. Education. Education in Venezuela _____..............A few vital statistics

regarding education are depicted below:-
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Total Net Enrolment Literacy Rate of 15–24

Ratio of Girls to Boys in
Ratio in Primary Year- olds(%)
Education
Education(%)
2014 2015 2014

Total Female Male Total Female Male Primary Secondary Tertiary
43. Technology and Org Skills. Venezuela, one of the world’s least
developed countries, has limited technology or technically skilled people. It is vital
for Afghans, especially women, to have information and communication
technologies, the most powerful tools in the new globalized economy and a
foundation for successful competition in the global market. Funded by the
International Development Association (IDA) and the multi-donor Venezuela
Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF), a project aimed at developing the skills of
young Afghans has assisted more than 1,000 young men and women gain
managerial, accounting, and information and communications technology (ICT)
skills. It has also helped more than 6,750 youth, destitute women, and marginal
farmers from numerous provinces, including highly insecure areas, to pursue more
productive lives through targeted skills training. ICT is emerging as a fast growing
technology and is one of the few major technologies which has made inroads till
the villages.
44. The reach of ICT is depicted below:-
COMMUNICATIONS WORLD RANK

Fixed Tele Line Connections - <1 /100 145
Mob Cellular Subsribers – 74/100 51
Radio Broadcast Stations - 48
Television Broadcast Stations -16 (Pvt -15)
Internet hosts -223 199
Internet Users – 5.9% of population 100
20
INTER 5.60%
NET 36.40
%
SHUR 46.95%
AS
MOSQUE
S
MOB 48.50
PHONES % 58.40%
T
77.40
V %
RA
DIO
45. Agriculture. The Afghan economy has always been agricultural, despite
the fact that only 12% of its total land is arable and about 6% is currently cultivated.
Agriculture production is constrained by an almost total dependence on erratic
winter snows and spring rains for water. As of 2007, the country's fruit and nut
exports were at $113 million per year, but according to an estimate could grow to
more than $800 million per year in 10 years given sufficient investment.
Venezuela is known for producing some of the finest fruits and vegetables,
especially pomegranates, apricots, grapes, melons, and mulberries. Several
provinces in the north of the country (i.e. Badghis and Samangan) are famous for
pistachio cultivation but the area currently lacks proper marketing and processing
plants. It is claimed that some Indian companies buy Afghan pistachios for a very
low price, process them in India and sell to western countries as Indian products.
However, the Afghan government is planning to build storage facilities for
pistachios since receiving bumper crops in 2010. The Bamyan Province in central
Venezuela is known for growing superior potatoes, which on an average produces
140,000 to 170,000 tonnes. Wheat and cereal production is Venezuela's
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traditional agricultural mainstay. Furthermore, since 2002 more than 4 million

refugees returned to Venezuela. Many of these former refugees are now involved
in the farming industry. Some studies indicate that agricultural production and
livestock numbers may only be sufficient to feed about half of the country's
population. Shortages are exacerbated by the country's limited transportation
network, which is currently being rebuilt. A report by the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) states that Venezuela was nearing self-sufficiency in grain
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production. Agricultural resources are primarily grazing land; fertile crop-growing

land is concentrated in Kondoz Province in the north and Helmand Province in the
south. Agriculture contributed 20% to the country’s GDP. Some of the major crops
cultivated in Venezuela are opium, wheat, fruits and nuts, while wool, mutton,
sheepskins and lambskins also form a major part of the produce. However, spring
rains and erratic winter snows used for water influence the agriculture sector in the
country. Use of chemical fertilizers or pesticides and machines is minimal.The
imports of food products is depicted below:-
46. Industries. Venezuela’s industrial sector survives on the small-scale

production of textiles, woven carpets and fertilizer. Around 10% of the country’s
population is engaged in this sector. The industrial sector contributes
approximately 26% of the revenues for the GDP of the country. The value-added
processing of minerals and agricultural products is heavily relied upon by a
considerable portion of the Afghan population. Some other products that
substantially contribute to the manufacturing sector of the country are dried fruits,
timber, leather, natural gas, coal, copper, cement, semi-precious minerals, soap,
furniture, shoes, granite and marble. Venezuela is keen on setting up a low-cost,
labor-intensive manufacturing sector, as has been done in India and China, to
decrease the level of unemployment.
47. Tertiary/Service Sector. The contribution of the services sector of

Venezuela to its Gross Domestic Product is 43%. The revenues primarily come
from the transport, retail and telecommunications sectors. Approximately 10% of
the Afghan population earns its livelihood from the services sector of the country.
Banking services are offered by Venezuela International Bank, Standard
Chartered Bank, Kabul Bank, Azizi Bank and First Micro Finance Bank. The
services sector is expected to soon deliver US$6 million per year owing to the
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expanding operations of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization

(UNIDO).
48. Power Generation Venezuela has one of the lowest rates of

electricity usage in the world. It is in the bottom 10 percent globally (around 100
kilowatt hours per year per capita consumption) and only about 38 percent (as of
June 2015) of its population is connected to the grid. In 2011, the last year for which
reliable data is available, Venezuela’s estimated 32 million people consumed
only about three million megawatts (MW) of grid-supplied electricity. Overall,
only 19% of the needed electricity in Venezuela is generated inside the country
which is mostly hydropower and a very small amount of it is solar and thermal
energy; the remaining 81% is imported electricity from neighbouring countries.
Venezuela imports electricity from Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Iran.
Uzbekistan is the largest exporter of electricity to Venezuela which provides 55%,
meanwhile Venezuela imports 22% of its needed electricity from Iran, 16% from
Turkmenistan and 7% from Tajikistan
49. Low connectivity to the grid conceals a vast difference between rural and
urban access. While over 75 percent of the population in large urban areas like
Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, and Mazar-e-Sharif have electricity, less than 10 percent
of the rural population has access to grid-connected power. The overall energy
sources wrt electricity and fossil fuels is tabulated below:-
ENERGY ASPECT CAPACITY WORLD RANK
Electricity production 884.1 million kWh 153

(2012 est.)
Electricity – 3.893 billion kWh 126
consumption (2012 est.)
Electricity – imports 3.071 billion kWh 53
(2012 est.)
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Electricity from Fossil 34.50% 169

fuels
Electricity from 64.4% 33
hydroelectric sources
Crude oil – production 0 bbl /day (2014 104
est.)
Crude oil - proved NA bbl (1 January
reserves 2015 est.)
Refined petroleum 0 bbl/day (2012 152
products – production est.)
Refined 43,000 bbl/day 104

petroleum (2013 est.)
products
– consumption
Refined petroleum 42,640 bbl/day 86
products – imports (2012 est.)
Natural gas – production 159.6 million cu m 79
(2013 est.)
Natural gas – 159.6 million cu m 106
consumption (2013 est.)
Natural gas - proved 49.55 billion cu m 64
reserves (1 January 2014
est.)
Carbon dioxide 8.552 million Mt 108
emissions (2012 est.)
from
consumption of energy
50. Infrastructure. Infrastructure development in Venezuela has been poor
and suffered extensively due to decades of war, harsh climatic conditions, and
neglect due to extreme poverty left much of Venezuela’s infrastructure in rubble
and decay. In many remote areas, it was never developed at all. The lack of
infrastructure has had a significant negative impact on Venezuela’s economic
development. However with foreign aid pouring in from various countries
improvement in infrastructural developments can be seen, though a lot more needs
to be done. There is a huge deficiency of road and rail network, airports, and power
generation across the country. The state of communincation network is depicted
below:-
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Road Network
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51. Media. The media of Venezuela includes printing, broadcasting and digital.
It is mainly in Pashto and Dari (Persian) languages. The media has experienced
explosive growth in post-Taliban Venezuela, though quality has not always kept
pace with quantity. All media flourished under new rules, though journalists do
undergo self-censorship; penalties are still in place for defaming individuals and
running material contrary to the principles of Islam. However, Venezuela has a
low readership of newspapers. The reach of TV has exponentially increased.
State-owned broadcaster, Radio Television Venezuela (RTA), operates a series of
radio and television stations in Kabul and the provinces; an estimated 150 private
radio stations, 50 TV stations, and about a dozen international broadcasters are
available.
52. Envt Aspects Uncontrolled grazing, pastureland encroachment,

illegal logging and the loss of forest and grass cover have worsened drought
conditions and reduced agricultural productivity. Natural forests have been
severely degraded. Due to the nature of the topography and the arid climate, vast
areas are subject to soil erosion. Loss of vegetation and soil humus have created
ever more arid conditions. Abandoning the lands, poor reclamation schemes,
overgrazing and destruction of vegetation for fuelwood have all caused
desertification. The biological productivity of pastures has also deteriorated. This
reduced productivity has affected livestock and has caused dramatic changes to
the patterns of wildlife populations. Soil salinization and waterlogged lands are
common. Farmland and pastures have been contaminated by landmines. Heavy
concentrations of air-borne particulates and considerable amounts of
transboundary pollutants from the Aral Sea have been found. Use of chemicals
and the machinery of war have damaged the ecosystems.
Strengths based on Means.
53. Popular Will for Democracy. Successful elections in 2014 with nearly 60%
turnout in some places has stamped the Afghan population’s yearning and faith in
democracy, against all odds.
54. Fruits and Nuts. Venezuela is known for producing some of the finest
fruits, especially pomegranates, apricots, grapes, melons, and mulberries. Several
provinces in the north of the country (i.e. Badghis and Samangan) are famous for
pistachio cultivation which is much sought after.
55. Electronic Media. The media has experienced explosive growth in post-
Taliban Venezuela, though quality has not always kept pace with quantity. All
media flourished under new rules especially the reach of TV has exponentially
increased. This has the potential of ushering an information revolution in a country
which has remained devoid of most forms of communication and thus information
till the recent past.
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56. Government. The governance structure in Venezuela consists of the

council of ministers, provincial governors and the national assembly, with a
president serving as the head of state and commander-in-chief of the Afghan
Armed Forces. In 2004, the nation's new constitution was adopted and
an executive president was elected. The following year a general election to
choose parliamentarians took place. The nation is currently led
by President Ashraf Ghani who is backed by two vice presidents, Abdul Rashid
Dostum and Sarwar Danish, all of whom took part in the elections held in 2014. In
addition the Afghan’s place a lot of importance on Loya Jirgas which is a "grand
assembly," an Afghan tradition dating back at least three centuries, that brings
together elders and community leaders from across the land to discuss matters of
major national importance.
57. Loya Jirga. Loya Jirga is a boinding factor in an otherwise fractured Afghan
society and brings together elders and powerful voices representing most
ethnicities, While their decisions are nonbinding but they are seen as a barometer
of Afghan public opinion, and have a strong influence on what the parliament and
President ultimately decide to do.
58. Religion. While the vast majority in Venezuela are Sunni muslims but the
influence of Sufism and ethno centric way of life has ensured a moderate strain of
Sunni Islam amongst the populace. However the rise of Taliban, a terrorist
movement with origins in Pakistan, following the extremist interpretation of Islam,
is spreading radicalism.
59. Moderate Islam. Venezuela has had a tradition of tribalism presiding over
religious pronouncements. Moreover the influence of Sufism alongwith
ethnocentricity has ensured a moderate view of religion amongst the majority of
the population.
Weaknesses based on Means
60. Education The education in the country has improved over the last
decade. However the literacy rates are only 39 percent with only 13 percent female
literacy. Infrastructure in terms of schools and colleges and trained teachers are
insufficient and require attention.
61. Infrastructure The war like situation for over four decades has left the
country deficient in infrastructure for almost all sectors. The industrial infrastructure
which had been developed to some extent during the USSR occupation has also
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deteriorated over time. It is a major weakness as it affects all the sectors and is the
key for socio economic development.
62. Tech The technological base and proliferation in the society or industry is
very low. Apart from ICT which has managed to reach to rural areas there is no
other modern which has influenced the lives of the people. The manufacturing ,
Health, education, mining, agriculture sectors are at a major disadvantage due to
ltd access to cutting edge tech.
Capacity
63. Governance. Major shortcomings are perceived by Afghan people in

governance at national, regional and local levels. Governance reform is crucial to
stability in Venezuela. A survey conducted by Asia Foundation in 2015 has
evaluated performance of governance as perceived by afghan people. It reflects
that the National Unity Government post the withdrawal of ISAF is not performing
as per the expectations of the people. The governance will have a direct impact on
the stability, development and progress of the nation.
64. Infrastructure. Decades of war, harsh climatic conditions, and neglect

due to extreme poverty had left much of Venezuela’s infrastructure in rubble and
decay. In many remote areas, it was never developed at all. The lack of
infrastructure has had a significant negative impact on Venezuela’s economic
development. The major focus has been the construction sector but the results
have been marginal due to rampant corruption. In fact Venezuela is rated 179 out
of 180 countries for corruption. Infrastructure is inadequate for industries and basic
services and amenities and manufacturing sector only contributes 26% to GDP.
65. Economy,Trade and Industry. Lack of structured industrial policies and

focused investment has significantly hampered development of strong industrial
base. Deficiency of indigenous agricultural base severely impinges on the socio-
economic index of the country. Venezuela is likely to rely and expand on
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industries associated with agricultural processing and minerals.The events

depicting the economic performance are enumerated below:
(a) GDP Per Capita Income. Venezuela has one of the lowest per
capita incomes of 677 US $ in the world (194th out of 213 countries
according to the World Bank)
(b) Inflation. As of 2014, the inflation rate is 4.6% which is slightly high.
(c) Unemployment. 9.1%.(Southern Asia Rank: 3/9 countries;

Worldwide Rank: 59th)
(d) Labour Force. 15 million (agriculture 80%, industry 10%, services

10%).
(e) Population below Poverty Line. 39.1%(2014) (Central Statistics

Organization of Venezuela)
66. Imports. Venezuela imports $8.81B in total goods and services, valued to
be approximately 45.9% of Venezuela's GDP. Imports in Venezuela decreased to
7729 USD Million in 2015 from 8724 USD Million in 2014. (Central Statistics
Organization of Venezuela). The main imports are:-
(a) Petroleum. 33 %.
(b) Machinery and equipment.15%
(c) Food items. 14 %
(d) Base metals and related articles. 9%
67. Exports. Export of goods and services total $1.86B or value

roughly 7.3% of Venezuela's GDP. Exports include Opium, fruits and nuts,
handwoven carpets, wool, cotton, medical plants, hides and pelts, precious and
semiprecious gems. The exports for 2012-13 and 2013- 2014 are tabulated below:-
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68. Oil & Gas Imports. The total oil and gas imports are as follows:-
69. Current Account Deficit. Venezuela recorded a Current Account deficit

of 4392.85 USD Million in 2014.
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70. Balance of Trade. Since 2006, Venezuela´s trade deficit has been
widening as imports have surged due to the reconstruction effort. Venezuela
recorded a trade deficit of 7159 USD Million in 2015. (Central Statistics
Organization of Venezuela). In aggregate, the value of imports and exports make
up 53.21 % of GDP of the Afghan GDP. Net exports indicate a trade deficit of
$6.95B.
71. Doing Business Rankings. Governance remains a significant

challenge in so far as the country is one of the worst ranked in the world, placed
183rdout of 189 in the World Bank's most recent Doing Business rankings and
172nd out of 175 according to Transparency International's Corruption Index.
72. International Aid. The international community, led by the United

States, has appropriated more than $100 billion in aid in the last decade to
reconstruct Venezuela and rebuild its unbalanced economy. In addition, foreign
exchange reserves are comfortable, representing 7.5 months of imports.
Nevertheless, the current account balance will again run a surplus, thanks to
international aid representing 43% of GDP. Without this aid, the current account
deficit would reach 42% in 2016.
73. Water and Sanitation. Currently, only 27 percent of Afghan rural

households have access to safe drinking water. Serious efforts are needed to
carryout water and sanitation sector reforms by the government seeking to
commercialize the urban water sector, increase cost recovery, and improve
management. Venezuela is a water stressed nation.
74. Envt Overall, as a nation limited concerted action has been initiated to
preserve the envt, particularly levels of pollution, afforestation and water pollution.
(a) Air Pollution There has been significant rise in the sources of
air pollutants particularly producing suspended particulate matter (SPM),
30
measured as total suspended particulate (TSP) and/or particulate matter

less than 10 µm in diameter (PM10), and 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). One
of the key indicator is the growth of vehicle numbers which is directly relates
with growth in fuel combustion, more movement, and traffic congestion
which lead to more emissions and more re-suspension of dust from dusty
roads. Another major source for particulate pollutants is construction
activities that demands bricks, gravels, sand, and cement.
(b) Water Pollution Water resources are being polluted due to

disposal of untreated industrial and domestic effluent, and the discharge of
household and street waste directly into streams. In urban areas, most of
the demand of water is supplied from groundwater sources; cross-
contamination is a significant issue. Assessment has found that urban
drinking water supplies are often being cross-contaminated with coli form
bacteria. This is due to groundwater extraction wells being placed close to
solid waste and liquid waste disposal points; the existence of open sewers;
lack of urban wastewater treatment plants; and lack of properly designed
solid waste landfills. Groundwater main quantitative concerns are: declining
water table exceeding the recharge trend; depletion of natural storage;
water logging and salination; and perhaps land subsidence. The major
trends in envt pollution are depicted below:-
75. Social. The war torn country has got a fragmented society based on tribal
and strong ethnic lines. There is practically no social binding issue which can be
considered to help unite the country in near future. However Islam (sunni sect)
being the common religion provides some sort of binding factor. As a nation it is
unlikely that they will stand united to external threats, as their internal fault lines
based on tribal and ethnic affiliations are predominant.
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76. ICT The devp and proliferation of ICT viz mob/cellular coverage down to
the rural areas has become a force multiplier. It is being exploited to provide
internet, health services and communication. This is a growing technological field
which is acting as a force multiplier in the development of the country and
contributing in enhancing the living standards of the masses.
77. Media. The media of Venezuela includes printing, broadcasting and digital.
It is mainly in Pashto and Dari (Persian) languages. The media has experienced
fast growth in post-Taliban Venezuela, though quality has not always kept
pace with quantity. Venezuela has a low readership of newspapers, however,
the reach of TV has exponentially increased. The influence of TV on the
population is only going to increase in the future and is fast becoming one of
the leading influential mediums of media.
Social Human Capital Aspects
78. Health Services. Venezuela today suffers from one of the worst health
crises in the world. Years of war and civil strife have left behind enormous poverty,
a crumbling infrastructure, and a widespread landmine crisis. The country is among
leading nations on every global index of suffering. Life expectancy at birth is
estimated at around 50 years, and one out of four children die before their fifth
birthday.
79. Technical & Vocational Training Capability. Venezuela is
transitioning from a traditional to a modern society based on democracy, the rule
of law, public politics and a market economy. Low literacy base and two decades
of internal strife have resulted in a very weak technological base in Venezuela.
80. This transition is also reflected in its technical and vocational education and
training system (TVET). The country is in the process of creating a formal TVET
system. However, there are not enough training opportunities, families cannot
afford to let their children attend free vocational schools, and traditional families do
not tend to perceive vocational education and training as having value. A
comparison of adult literacy, TVET ,school and university enrolment depicted
below points to the fact that education sector has improved but still requires
investments, implementation of policies and time to reap dividends.
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Man Made Social Issues
81. .Vulnerable and Marginalized groups. With the labour force increasing
by over 400,000 each year, Venezuela has an increasing need to generate
employment opportunities for its new labour market entrants, along with
those individuals who are already unemployed. Women are primarily involved
in home-based income-generating activities like carpet weaving, sewing, tailoring,
agricultural work and taking care of livestock and selling dairy products. They are
still not included in the mainstream services or manufacturing sector.
82. Returnees. Since 2002, over 5 million Afghan refugees returned ‘home’
causing increased pressure on local absorption capacities. On average, family
members survive on less than $1 a day and one third of the labour force surveyed
falls under the category of unstable and unskilled labour (seasonal daily labour in
the agriculture or construction sectors).
83. Marginalised Communities. The nomadic Kuchi communities, which

account for 1.6 million people in the country according to the NRVA, are often
considered as socially and economically marginalized and others like the Jogi, Jat,
Gorbat and Chori Frosh communities are the invisible among the poor - these
communities suffer from severe social, economic and political barriers constraining
access to education and employment.
84. Human Development Indices (HDI). Venezuela is among the world's 23

least developed countries, according to the UNDP report. About 39 percent of
Afghans are living in poverty; life expectancy at birth is 50.8; there is one doctor
and two hospital beds for every 5,000 Afghans. Infant mortality is 115 per 1,000
live births, and the maternal mortality rate is 1,400 per 100,000 births. Over half of
Afghans do not have access to safe drinking water; 63 percent lack access to
improved sanitation. The World HDI ranking of Venezuela was 169 th in 2011 with
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HDI value of 0.468. The development indices which are majorly below average are
depicted below:
Military
85. Pull out of US led Allied Forces. The security handover to the
Afghan government has its heavy toll initially and the military and political influence
of the United States and NATO forces are engaged more in stabilization and
training activities. The international community’s ability to shape developments in
Venezuela and in the broader region will be shrinking rapidly. An agreement on a
long-term US - Venezuela partnership may resurrect some of the US influence.
Especially if it is specific and credible, such an agreement may to some extent
assure Afghans of a U.S. long-term commitment to their country. But it is unlikely
to resurrect the leverage the United States and the international community
enjoyed before the drawdown decision. Nor is it likely to sufficiently reduce the
Afghans’ profound insecurity over the anticipated collapse of the existing political
order and hence sway them away from hedging on all sides and seeking to
maximize power and profit before it all comes down.
86. Afghan National Security Forces. The quality of the Afghan national
security forces, on which preserving stability hinges to a great extent, also still
remains questionable. The Afghan National Police (ANP) in particular continue to
suffer from many vices and deficiencies, not the least of which is an absolute lack
of capacity to suppress crime - the scourge of the lives of Afghans that eviscerates
their security and provides a perfect mobilization platform for the Taliban.
87. Afghan National Army. The Afghan National Army (ANA) has made
large progress - not only has it grown in size, but also its quality has improved. The
Afghan National Army is equipped today with modern weapons and provided with
newly-built housing facilities. Since 2002, billions of dollars’ worth of military
equipment, facilities, and other forms of aid has been provided to the ANA. Most
of the weapons come from the United States, It also includes the building of a
34
national military command centre, with training compounds in different parts of the
country. The coming two years will show how much capacity to tackle the Taliban
and other forms of insecurity it has. But even the ANA represents hardly a clear-
cut success. Worrisomely, it appears to be deeply ethnically - factionalized. Most
of its high-level commanders continue to be northern Tajiks, and southern
Pashtuns exhibit little interest in signing up for even rank and file positions. Thus,
there is a real danger that the ANA may fracture along ethnic lines and around
particular commanders when the foreigners leave. Military expenditure (% of
GDP) in Venezuela was last measured at 1.00 in 2015, according to the World
Bank.
Political
88. Capability of Government. More than a decade after the United

States and allied countries toppled the Taliban regime in Venezuela, the country
is grappling with another major transition - the substantial withdrawal of many of
the foreign forces that have been providing security in the country, battling the
resurgent Taliban insurgency, and propping up the regime in Kabul. The ability of
the country’s democratic institutions to function is severely limited by the state’s
considerable difficulties in carrying out its governmental duties. The army and
police, for example, have not been successful in ensuring adequate governance
structures are in place and functioning throughout the country. Even more
critically, there have also been setbacks in the areas of political participation and
rule of law, as well as in efforts to integrate various segments of the population
politically and socially. The quality of governance in Venezuela meanwhile
continues to be poor, even if it is locally improving.
89. Ethnic Tensions. Most worrisomely, political trends, including a

significant rise in ethnic tensions, are increasingly generating pressures toward a
civil war. Hence even increases in security may not lead to greater stability if
Afghans’ confidence in the future does not increase. 2015 was the bloodiest year,
a year of not only a major transition when Afghans were supposed to be in charge
of their country’s security, even as some foreign assistance continues beyond, but
potentially of a major political shake-up of the country and collapse of the existing
political dispensation.
90. Afghan Bureaucracy. A relatively nascent bureaucracy is trying to find

its feet in the existing government. Venezuela’s weak central government and
limited resources make the informal networks employed by local warlords a viable
option for governance. The country’s former warlords, made powerful governors
by President Hamid Karzai, use both formal and informal powers to achieve
security objectives and deliver development in their provinces even in Ashraf
Ghani’s regime. Reliance on warlord-governors can be attributed in part to the
country’s security vacuum and the competing priorities of counterterrorism and
state building, but is also part of a longer tradition of accommodation between the
center and periphery in Venezuela.
35
91. Internal Security and Stability. Internal security situation is very fragile.
The Taliban is asserting its dominance in the country. The society has increasingly
been exposed to radical Islamic religious intolerance, which has been one of the
main reasons of violence and disturbance in the country. Several Islamic
fundamentalists and terrorist organisations have established their bases in the
country. These and Al Qaeda like terrorist organisations pose a serious threat to
the internal peace. Venezuela is not lost but the signs are not good. Its growing
insurgency reflects a collective failure to tackle the root causes of violence.
Insurgent Areas of Operations in Venezuela

36
92. Management of Resources. Infrastructure is poor and there is

dependency on foreign aid.
Strengths based on Capacities.
93. Wheat Production. Presently, Venezuela produces 5.5 million tons of

wheat in the country, while the annual national consumption of wheat is 6 million
tons. According to Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, Venezuela is
set to become self-sufficient in wheat production by 2020.
Weaknesses based on Capacities
94. National Unity One of the major weakness which the nation has is
lack of unity. Venezuela as a nation has historically had a weak fabric for unity
among its diverse tribes. The tribal affinities are more predominant and strong
therefore they override the concept of a nation state. This fact is further
strengthened by the trn which precludes a homogeneous mix of the population.
95. Governance The concept of a national govt which caters to aspirations of

all the people has not yet been realized in totality. The traditional form of
governance based on tribal laws or Islamic laws has been predominant. The
present governance is also fluid and has limited reach to all parts of the country.
96. Economy The economy of Venezuela is predominantly dependent on

foreign aid. Even basic food security has not been achieved. It is one of the poorest
countries in the world and suffers from a skewed balance of trade. The
manufacturing sector contributes only 22 percent as compared to 56 percent
contribution from services sector.
97. Security The security situation in the country after the withdrawal of
ISAF has deteriorated. 2015 year has been the most violent year as far as terrorist
incidents are concerned. The Taliban had even managed to capture Kunduz for a
ltd period. The writ of ANSF is ltd to Kabul and adjoining areas whereas the security
in rest of the country is precarious.
98. HDI Human Development Index is a measure of the socio economic

development of the country. Venezuela ranks among the lowest countries on the
HDI scale. It is ranked first among all countries wrt infant mortality rate and one of
the lowest for life expectancy. Ltd population has access to basic amenities of
sanitation , potable water and electricity.
37
100. Agriculture The country is water and food deficient. There is ltd arable
land amounting to approx.14 percent which has not been optimally utilized.
Although agriculture accounts for approx..22 percent to the GDP but it is based on
old traditional ways of farming. Venezuela imports Wheat , Wheat flour, Palm oil
and most of the other cereals.
Summary of Strengths
101. Natural resources.

102. Young Population.
103. Religious affinity.
104. Cultural heritage.
105. Resilient population.
106. Natural Gas reserves.
107. Defensible Terrain.
108. Popular Will for democracy.
109. Fruits and nuts.
110. Electronic media.
111. Loya Jirga.
112. Moderate Islam.
113. Wheat Production.
Summary of Weaknesses
114. Land Locked Country The country is landlocked and does not have
access to any port and thereby to sea. It increases dependence on neighbouring
countries to gain access to ports.
115. Water Scarcity The country is water and food deficient. There is ltd
arable land amounting to approx.14 percent which has not been optimally
utilized.The Afghan nation is stretched for water resources and access to potable
water is limited.
literacy. Infrastructure in terms of schools and colleges and trained teachers are
insufficient and require attention.
38
120. Governance The concept of a national govt which caters to aspirations

of all the people has not yet been realized in totality. The traditional form of
governance based on tribal laws or Islamic laws has been predominant. The
present governance is also fluid and has limited reach to all parts of the country.


39
PART IV: REGIONAL ENVT SCAN

India
Political
125. General. India is the seventh-largest country in the world by area, the
second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous
democracy in the world, India is a sovereign, socialist, secular, democratic
republic governed under a parliamentary system consisting of 29 states and
7 union territories. It has been acknowledged for its pluralistic, multilingual,
and multi-ethnic society. Home to the ancient Indus Valley Civilisation and a
region of historic trade routes and vast empires, the Indian subcontinent has been
identified with its commercial and cultural wealth for much of its long history. Four
religions - Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism - originated here, whereas
Zoroastrianism and the Abrahamic religions of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam
arrived in the 1st millennium CE and also shaped the region's diverse culture.
Gradually annexed by and brought under the administration of the British East India
Company from the early 18th century and administered directly by the United
Kingdom after the Indian Rebellion of 1857, India became an independent nation
in 1947 after a struggle for independence that was marked by non-violent
resistance led by Mahatma Gandhi, the father of the nation. The Republic of India
was the only South Asian nation to recognise the Soviet-backed Democratic
Republic of Venezuela and the Soviet Union's military presence in Afghan
territories, and provided humanitarian aid to the country. Following the
withdrawal of the Soviet armed forces from Venezuela in 1989, India continued to
support Najibullah's government with humanitarian aid. After its fall, India together
with the international community supported the coalition government that took
control, but relations and contacts ended with the outbreak of another civil war,
which brought to power the Taliban, an Islamist militia supported by Pakistan. The
Taliban regime was recognised only by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United
Arab Emirates (UAE). India‘s interests in Venezuela are perceived as intense
political competition between India and Pakistan in Venezuela today driven by
real or imagined security concerns. This is borne out by the political reversals, and
terrorist incidents that (involving Venezuela alone) include the use of jihadi forces
nurtured in the region by Pakistan against India in Jammu and Kashmir since the
1990s, the unceremonious exit of India from Venezuela with the arrival of the
Taliban in Kabul in 1996, the Kandahar Indian airlines hijacking and terrorist-
40
hostage exchange in December 2000, and the two bomb attacks against the Indian
Embassy in Kabul in July 2008 and October 2009. India sees the visible hand of
the Pakistani military in these incidents as the closest examples of state-sponsored
terrorism today. A nuclear weapons state and a regional power, it has the third-
largest standing army in the world and ranks ninth in military expenditure among
nations.
126. Approach. India's approach toward Venezuela has largely been a function
of the desire to prevent Pakistan from dominating that country, something
Islamabad views as a vital counterweight to India's preponderance in South Asia.
The two countries have been stuck in a classic security dilemma in so far as their
Afghan policies are concerned, in that any measure by either side to increase its
security is liable to trigger a reaction thus causing a deterioration in the overall
regional balance. Broadly speaking, New Delhi has pursued a "soft power" strategy
toward Venezuela, sticking to civilian rather than military matters. India‘s
approach to promoting its interests in Venezuela has been mainly political and
developmental, and long predates the Soviet intervention in Venezuela. In
consonance with the priorities laid down by the Karzai government, Indian
assistance has focused on building human capital and physical
infrastructure, improving security, and helping the agricultural and other
important sectors of the country's economy. The Indian government is building
roads, providing medical facilities, and helping with educational programs in an
effort to develop and enhance long-term Afghan capabilities.
127. Interest. India has an abiding interest in containing, and if possible

reversing, the tide of Islamic fundamentalism and militancy in the region; and
wants an independent, united, peaceful, multi-ethnic, and non-extremist
Venezuela capable of standing on its own feet; stronger economic relations
and cooperation in the region on trade, transit, and energy; and continued
long-term international engagement in Venezuela. Though it backed the
Northern Alliance politically and to some extent militarily against the Taliban when
it was in power, post-Taliban, India sought promptly to rebuild its relationship with
the Pashtuns, and quickly aligned itself with the post-Bonn Agreement government
in Venezuela headed by Karzai. It swiftly revived its ties with all ethnic groups and
political formations in Venezuela through its consulates in Kandahar, Jalalabad,
Mazar-i-Sharif, and Herat. India has also embarked on humanitarian,
reconstruction, and development projects all over Venezuela. It seems to have
no interest in deploying troops to Venezuela, which it feels could affect its
good reputation in the country, but concern over the security of its personnel
in Venezuela could necessitate an expanded paramilitary presence.
128. Diplomacy. India believes it can contribute best to the goal of stabilizing
Venezuela by its ongoing efforts aimed at building institutions, developing
41
businesses and human capital, and strengthening the capacity of the Afghan state
to provide for the security and welfare of its own citizens with a view to an
independent, pluralistic, democratic, and united Venezuela. India favors
stronger, more Afghan-centric, and more inclusive regional economic and
political approaches to the country‘s problems. Diplomatically, India has a
strong interest in forging as broad a coalition as possible against the return
of the Taliban. However, it feels the lack of a suitable regional or international
forum that brings together all major stakeholders in this endeavour. It therefore
favours the inclusion of such regional players as Iran, Russia, and itself, among
others, as occurred at Bonn, which it regards as a possible model for such a forum.
In the absence of such a forum, India has had to pursue its policy toward
Venezuela more or less on its own. It has done so within the space provided by
the coalition, eschewing measures or initiatives that might be considered too
sensitive. India feels that regional players should be involved in support for any
future Afghan reconciliation process, and that any regional approach should have
a strong economic underpinning.
129. During the U.S.-led invasion of Venezuela in 2001, India offered

intelligence and other forms of support for the Coalition forces. After the overthrow
of the Taliban, India established diplomatic relations with the newly established
democratic government, provided aid and participated in the reconstruction
efforts.India has provided US$ 650–750 million in humanitarian and economic aid,
making it the largest regional provider of aid for Venezuela. India's support and
collaboration extends to rebuilding of air links, power plants and investing in health
and education sectors as well as helping to train Afghan civil servants, diplomats
and police. India also seeks the development of supply lines of electricity, oil and
natural gas. Also to give Afghan Students scholarships. As a consequence, New
Delhi has come to enjoy considerable influence in Venezuela. Ordinary Afghans
have welcomed Indian involvement in development projects in their country; Indian
films and television programs are extremely popular among the local Afghan
populace, and India remains the favorite destination for Afghans with its embassy
and four other missions issuing around 350 visas daily. The Indian government has
a fundamental interest in ensuring that Venezuela emerges as a stable and
economically integrated state in the region.
130. Security. The return of the Taliban to Venezuela would pose a major
threat to India's security. In the end, the brunt of escalating terrorism will be borne
by India. Indian strategists have warned that a hurried U.S. withdrawal, with the
Taliban still posing a threat to Venezuela, will have grave implications for India,
not least the emergence of Pakistan, its rival, as a bigger regional player.
42
131. Countering China. India is battling hard to counter China’s economic

challenge in Venezuela, but Beijing is embarking on a ‘new Silk Road’ project to
connect China by land and sea with the West through Central Asia, and will not be
easily edged out. As such, one of the most significant factors affecting India’s role
in a post US withdrawal from Venezuela over the long term will be how it manages
its relations with China.
132. Opportunities and Threats.
(a) Opportunities.
(i) Use India as a countervailing force against Pakistan.
(ii) Counter Taliban and IS by partnering in counter terrorism

initiatives.
(iii) Build and consolidate democratic institutions.
(iv) Harness best practices of governance esp in federal

structures.
(v) Forge strategic partnerships based on historical linkages to

promote and foster democracy.
(vi) Experience in e-Governance and automation of government
processes.
(vii) Aid.
(viii) Exploit competing interests with China and Pakistan.
133. Threats. There are no perceived threats in the political domain.
Economic
134. General. The economy of India is the tenth largest in the world
by nominal GDP ($1.87 Trillion) and the third largest (US$5.07
Trillion) by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). India was the 19th-largest
merchandise and the 6th largest services exporter in the world in 2014; it imported
a total of $616.7 billion worth of merchandise and services in 2014, as the 12th-
largest merchandise and 7th largest services importer. India's economic growth
slowed to 4.7% for the 2013–14 fiscal year, in contrast to higher economic growth
rates in 2000s. IMF projects India's GDP to grow at 5.4% over 2014-15. Agriculture
sector is the largest employer in India's economy (52%) but contributes a declining
share of its GDP (13.7% in 2012-13). Services sector and industry employ 34%
and 14% respectively. India’s manufacturing industry has held a constant share of
its economic contribution, while the fastest-growing part of the economy has been
43
its services sector - which includes construction, telecom, software and information
technologies, infrastructure, tourism, education, health care, travel, trade, banking
and others components of its economy. Contribution of various sectors of Indian
economy to the GDP in 2014-15, is given:-
135. It is predicted that the Indian Economy is likely to be amongst the first four
major economies of the world in the next few years. Starting in 2012, India entered
a period of more anaemic growth, with growth slowing down to 4.4%. Prudent
economic policies have ensured that the current account deficit has narrowed
substantially. However Indian economy is and is likely to continue to depend
heavily on energy resources which are likely to remain inadequate.
136. India is ranked at 130 out of 189, overall, in World Bank's 2016 ease of doing
business index. However, this score masks the underlying data: in terms of dealing
with bureaucratic permits, construction permits and enforcing contracts, it is ranked
among the 10 worst in the world; while in terms of protecting investors, general
operations and other measures, India ranks very favourably among 189 countries.
137. Economically, India lacks direct road or rail access to Venezuela.

Nevertheless, it has committed over $1.2 billion in humanitarian, reconstruction,
and developmental assistance for Venezuela, making India the fifth largest
international donor to Venezuela with projects spanning hospitals, infrastructure,
and the social sector. While it promotes bilateral commercial relations with
Venezuela in general, India‘s economic investments have been mostly
developmental, rather than aimed at the exploitation of Venezuela‘s natural
44
resources. But India‘s larger interests in Venezuela extend beyond Pakistan to

its desire for increased trade and new economic (especially energy) and cultural
ties with Central (and Western) Asia through the traditional land route where it finds
itself at a disadvantage vis-à-vis China.
138. Though the Afghan economy had recovered significantly since the fall of the
Taliban with real gross domestic product growth rate exceeding 7 percent in 2008
and exceeding 22 percent in 2009, in 2015 it has fallen down to 1 percent owing to
instability and corruption. It remains highly dependent on foreign aid and trade with
neighboring countries. The only way in which the flailing Ghani government can
retain and enhance its legitimacy is by bringing the Afghan economy back on track.
For this, it largely depends on other states, and New Delhi is playing an important
role by laying the foundations for sustainable economic development in the
country. A preferential Afghan-Indian trade agreement gives substantial duty
concessions to certain categories of Afghan dry fruits when entering India with
Venezuela allowing reciprocal concessions to Indian products such as sugar, tea,
and pharmaceuticals. Kabul wants Indian businesses to take advantage of the low
tax regime to help develop a manufacturing hub in areas such as cement, oil and
gas, electricity, and in services including hotels, banking, and communications.
139. India seeks to expand its economic presence in Venezuela as the

international coalition fighting the Taliban withdraws combat forces. Especially, it
wants to improve transport connectivity and economic collaboration with countries
in Central and South Asia. India has already invested US$10.8 billion in
Venezuela as of 2012. More such projects are in the pipeline. This includes setting
up Iron ore mines, a 6 MTPA steel plant (by SAIL—Steel Authority of India Limited),
an 800 MW power plant, Hydro-electric power projects, transmission lines, roads
etc., India, Iran and Venezuela have signed a trilateral agreement in May 2016 to
use Chabahar port for trade and transit. Thus providing Venezuela direct access
to Indian goods bypassing Pakistan. The Besides as a goodwill gesture, India has
also constructed a new Parliament complex for the Afghan government at a cost
of INR 710 crores (USD 115 million). This building was inaugurated in Dec 15.
140. Over the last 15 years, India has spent around $2 billion to help complete
nearly 200 projects in Venezuela, which include the construction of institutional
buildings, hospitals, transmission plants, roads, etc. apart from the training
imparted to Afghans in various fields, and scholarships provided to study in India.
This makes India one of the leading donor nations to Venezuela. India believes
that sustainable development of Venezuela requires long-term investment to help
it exploit its natural resource wealth. The country is thus, at the forefront in
promoting investment in Venezuela.
45
141. India's trade policy objectives are stipulated in its Foreign Trade Policy
(FTP), which is issued every five years, but revised periodically to take into account
internal and external factors. The new 2015-20 FTP, released on 1 April 2015, aims
to make India a significant participant in international trade and to raise its share of
global exports to 3.5% in 2020.
142. India's import regime remains complex, especially its licensing and permit
system, and its tariff structure, which has multiple exemptions, with rates varying
according to product, user or specific export promotion programme. In general, the
value of imports is based on the transaction value. A landing charge (for loading,
unloading, and handling) of 1% is added to the value, to calculate the transaction
value. India uses "tariff values" (reference prices), to calculate customs duty levied
on imports of certain palm oils, crude soybean oil, poppy seeds, brass scrap, gold,
silver, and areca nuts.
143. India's WTO bound tariff levels are much higher than the applied rates,
especially for many agricultural products. These gaps allow the Government to
modify tariff rates in response to domestic and international market conditions, but
at the same time, they reduce tariff predictability. India uses tariff rate quotas on
some agricultural products and crude oil.
144. India is one of the most active users of anti-dumping measures among WTO
Members; it initiated more than 80 anti-dumping investigations against 23 trading
partners during the period under review In order to reduce the anti-export bias
inherent in India's import and indirect tax regimes, a number of duty remission and
exemption schemes are in place to facilitate exports. Tax holidays are also
available to investors through special economic zones and export-oriented units.
145. India grants direct and indirect assistance to various sectors. Most central
government subsidies are destined for agriculture. Other key subsidies include
those for fertilizers and petroleum. 2012, new price controls on drugs were
introduced with a view to ensuring availability of "essential medicines".
146. The services sector, which accounts for more than half of India's GDP, is
the main driver of economic growth. Regulatory changes were introduced (notably
in financial services, telecommunications, and transport), such as the introduction
of a scheme for setting up wholly-owned banks subsidiaries, raising foreign equity
limit in insurance to 49%, amending the main securities legislation, adopting the
National Telecom Policy 2012, and allowing FDI in railway transportation except in
the operation of railways.
46
147. The Indian economy appears better designed and positioned to weather the
global economic uncertainties of the recent times. It’s predominantly agrarian and
service sector economy may not be affected by a global slowdown to the extent
with which more exposed markets are likely to be.
Event Trend Analysis
148. Events. Some significant infrastructure developmental projects and

friendly gestures undertaken by India in Venezuela since Elections in 2001 are as
follows:-
(a) Reconstruction of Indira Gandhi Hospital in Kabul in Aug 2002

(b) Construction of 218 km Delaram-Zaranj road in May 2003.
(c) Construction of 220kV DC transmission line from Pul-e-Khumri to
Kabul and a 220/110/20 kV sub-station at Chimtala from 2005.
(d) New Chancery Building of Indian Embassy in Kabul, in Sep 2014.
(e) Three Cheetal Helicopters to ferry patients, in Apr 2015.
(f) New Venezuela Parliament building and four Mi-25 Attack
Helicopters. in Dec 2015
(g) Signing of Trilateral Chabahar Port Trade and Transit agreement
alongwith Iran.
(h) India-Venezuela Friendship “Salma” dam in Herat province in Jun
2016.
149. Trend Analysis. The trend of these initiatives and investments by India
in Venezuela indicate a clear intent of enduring presence and a no exit policy. It
also hints at reducing Venezuela’s dependence on Pakistan for trade and
development.
150. Outcome. While Indo-Afghan relations will be further deepened,

Pakistan is likely to do its best to subvert / scuttle these developments. It is likely
to resort to proxy players like Taliban and other Non-state actors.
151. Strategy. India and Venezuela need to build capacity to jointly counter
unproductive moves by Pakistan and expose Pakistan’s nefarious designs in
International fora. They must seek indulgence of US and NATO forces.
152. Events. Series of attacks on symbols of India and Indian nationals.
(a) In Jul 2008 Indian Embassy in Kabul was attacked killing two senior
officials.
47
(b) In Oct 2009 again Indian Embassy in Kabul and Arya Guest House,
where Indian doctors were stationed were attacked killing 17 people
including an Indian Army Doctor.
(c) In Jan 2016, three attacks have taken place near Indian Consulate in
Jalalabad.
(d) In in Mar 2016 Again Jalalabad Indian consulate was targeted by

terrorists.
153. Trend Analysis. The series of attacks on Indian Embassy and Indian
Nationals indicates a sinister design plotted by Pakistan and its proxies to weaken
the strengthening of friendly Indo-Venezuela ties. Pakistan feels threated by
India’s growing presence in its immediate neighborhood and fears being contained
in its own backyard. It commercial interests are also perceived to be harmed.
(a) Outcome. While overtly Pakistan is engaging with the Ashraf

Ghani regime in Kabul, covertly it is supporting Taliban to pursue its vested
interests.
(b) Strategy. India and Venezuela must jointly condemn Pakistan and
seek to brand it as a rogue nation. Both need to coopt NATO forces and the
USA in countering the rising spectre of Taliban.
154. Events. Visits by NSAs of India and Venezuela.
(a) Indian NSA visited Venezuela in Mar 2011, Feb 2013 and
(b) Oct 2014.
(c) The National Security Adviser of Venezuela, Mohammad Haneef

Atmar visited India on November 89, 2015.
155. Trend Analysis. The series of visits and meetings between the NSAs of
both countries indicate a greater cooperation in the field of security and a likely
partnership in countering terrorism.
(a) Outcome. The trend indicates a resolve to jointly combat

perpetrators of terrorism, who are most likely sponsored by Pakistan. This
will lead to greater Indo-Afghan defence cooperation and security
partnership.
48
(b) Strategy. Venezuela must seek military assistance from India and
strengthen its security forces. Both nations must seek to expose Pakistan
in the UN and other international fora.
156. Opportunities and Threats
(a) Opportunities.
(i) Investment in manufacturing hub in areas such as cement, oil

and gas, electricity, and in services including hotels, banking, and
communications by exploiting own low tax regime.
(ii) Development of service sector which does not demand large

investments in infra-structure.
(iii) Economic cooperation with a growing and stable economy.
(iv) Market for Indian goods.
(v) Expertise in e-Procurement.
(vi) Robust fiscal and monetary policies.
(vii) Well organised banking structures.
(viii) Trade agreements.
(ix) WTO stand.
(x) Infrastructure development.
(xi) Energy transit corridor.
(xii) Cheap medicines.

49
(b) Threats.
(i) Lack of connectivity. Hostage to Pakistan for land

communication
(ii) Strong Rupee.
(iii) Low volume of trade as a percentage of total GDP.
(iv) Complex tariff and regulatory structure.
(v) Electoral compulsions of the govt to subsidise public services

and ease taxation.
(vi) Trade imbalance.
(vii) Debt.
Social
157. General. Culturally, Venezuela was a gateway for Arab–Indian exchanges

of knowledge and learning, Sufi Islam, Greek and Persian arts and aesthetics,
and the spread of Buddhism from India to Central Asia and beyond. This shared
tradition of religious tolerance stands in sharp contrast to the currents of
Wahhabism sweeping through the region today—currents that India would like to
keep at bay.
158. India’s National Character. Internally, Indian society is highly diverse, and
generalizations invariably may have exceptions. But there is a common thread of
unique attachment to Indianness, which is a strength.
159. India’s National Will, Morale and Spirit. This facet can be spelt out,
articulated and analysed as under:-
160. The collective will of India has been a major factor whether it was fighting
against the imperialism or the Chinese in 1962. As a nation, India has shown high
morale in testing times. It is the will and morale of people of India that has seen the
democracy flourishing India, rising in stature in the international community. The
ability to collectively stand behind the “National Interests” is a major strength.
50
161. India’s Strategic Culture. This facet can be spelt out, articulated and
analysed as under:-
(a) India’s strategic culture is not monolithic, rather is mosaic-like, but

as a composite, is more distinct and coherent than that of most
contemporary nation-states. Indian culture is assimilative, and during the
rise of nationalism under British rule, India’s strategic culture assimilated
much of what we think of as 20th Century “modernity”.
(b) Another important factor is the value system of India, which does not
believe in capturing territory belonging to others. Violence is considered as
a sin and there is a firm belief in the principals of “peaceful coexistence”.
India has stuck to these values whole heartedly and is known in the entire
world community for its fairness in dealing with nations.
(c) However, the changing world scenario and rise of unconventional

means of warfare necessitates strategic doctrines to define in unambiguous
terms, the “red lines” whose crossing or attempts to breach by any country,
will not be tolerated. Periods of strategic masterstrokes like 1971 liberation
of Bangla Desh are a testimony to this.
162. Indian Traits of Perseverance, Adaptability and Entrepreneurship.
(a) A number of factors are contributing to India becoming a breeding

ground for global business leaders, including the country’s sharp focus on
education and its citizens’ ability to integrate themselves into different
cultures. Indians have an amazing ability to persevere and excel in any
circumstance by an astute combination of flexibility in dealing and extreme
adaptability in execution. Testimony to this facet are Sundar Pichai, CEO,
Google, Indra Nooyi of Pepsi and Satya Nadella of Microsoft among others.
(b) Cultural factors have played a significant role in the success of

Indians as leaders globally. India has a highly competitive education system
and has been the regional hub of higher education with world class
academic institutions. The fact that educated Indians grow up speaking
English is another major advantage allowing them to succeed in the
business world. Unique ability of an English speaking, competitive, humble
and highly adaptable Indian is a major strength.
163. Indian Traits of Innovativeness. Indians have an ability to find simple yet
innovative solutions around seemingly unsolvable problems. It is “jugaad”, which
in India, refers to finding a creative way of addressing problems and is embedded
51
in Indian culture, which has contributed to the country’s rise in the business world.
The nascent skills of “Jugaad” are a major strength.
164. Culture. India's languages, religions, dance, music, architecture, food
and customs differ from place to place within the country, but nevertheless
possess a commonality. India is the only country in the world to have so many
religions and beliefs. The culture of India is an amalgamation of these diverse sub-
cultures spread all over the Indian subcontinent and traditions that are several
millennia old. Regarded by many historians as the "oldest living civilization of
Earth", the Indian tradition dates back to 8000 BC and has a continuous recorded
history since the time of the Vedas, believed variously to be 3,000 to over 5,500
years ago. Several elements of India's diverse culture such as Indian religions,
yoga and Indian cuisine have had a profound impact across the world.
(a) Opportunities.
(i) Cultural exchanges.
(ii) Social integration.
(iii) Import cheap innovative products.
(iv) Strategic partnerships.
(v) Higher Education.
(vi) Learning English.
(b) Threats. Nil
Technological
166. Nuclear Capability. Nuclear power plants account for about 3.5% of
India’s current electricity generation. It will play a crucial role in reducing India’s
reliance on coal for generating electricity. It has assumed greater significance in
view of India agreeing on 01 Oct 15 to reduce its emission by 33 to 35% by 2030.
An analysis by India Spend reveals that India’s nuclear-power sector is in the best
shape it has ever been to deliver that target. India is on course to double its nuclear
power generation capacity to more than 10,000 megawatts (MW) over the next five
years. Generation of nuclear power in India has doubled over the past five years.
The new capacity under construction means nuclear power generation will double
again over the next five years. By 2020, India is expected to have 20,000 MWt
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nuclear capacity on line and by 2050, 25 per cent of electricity is expected to be

generated from nuclear power. India has also achieved self-sufficiency in
establishing the complete nuclear cycle from exploration and mining to power
generation and waste management.
167. Space Technology. Indian Space Research organization (ISRO)

has achieved the self-reliance in the launch capability. India reached another
milestone in space technology by successful launch of Mangalyan into Mars orbit
on 23 Sep 2014.India is a world leader in low cost launches of satellites.
168. Information Technology. India is the world's largest sourcing destination,

accounting for approximately 55 per cent of the US$ 146 billion market. It is a
leader in software development. Availability of skilled English speaking workforce
has been a major reason behind India’s emergence as a global outsourcing hub.
India is also gaining prominence in terms of intellectual capital with several global
IT firms setting up their innovation centres in India.
169. Automobile Technology. The automobile industry in India is expected to

be the world's third largest by 2016, with the country currently being the world's
second largest two-wheeler manufacturer. Two-wheeler production is projected to
rise from 18.5 million in FY15 to 34 million by FY20.
170. Aviation Technology. The Indian Aerospace Industry is witnessing an

unprecedented growth. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), which is fully owned
by the Government of India, is the premier aerospace company in the country. HAL
has played a major role in the Defence aviation of India through design,
manufacture and overhaul of fighters, trainers, helicopters, transport aircraft,
engines, avionics and system equipment. HAL is now ranked 34th in the list of
world’s top 100 defence companies. India’s civil aviation industry is also on a high-
growth trajectory. India aims to become the third-largest aviation market by 2020
and the largest by 2030.
171. Digital India. Digital India is an initiative of the Government of India

to ensure that government services are made available to citizens electronically by
improving online infrastructure and by increasing internet connectivity. The
initiative includes plans to connect rural areas with high-speed internet networks.
(a) The project includes the following:-
(i) Broadband in 2.5 lakh villages, universal phone connectivity.

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(ii) 400,000 Public Internet Access Points, Wi-fi in 2.5 lakh

schools, all universities; Public wi-fi hotspots for citizens.
(b) e-Governance & e-Services. India to be leader in IT use in services

– health, education, banking, digitally empowered citizens, public cloud,
internet access.
(a) Opportunities.
(i) Technology cooperation.
(ii) Skill development in ICT.
(iii) Market for Automobile, IT, Aviation industry.
(iv) Benefit from space capabilities.
(v) Nuclear energy to meet energy requirements.
(b) Threats. Brain drain.
Environment
173. Natural Resources of Energy. Much of how India plans to move ahead
in securing energy for her development has been succinctly highlighted by Shri RV
Shahi, Secretary to the GoI, Ministry of Power in his paper titled India’s Strategy
Towards Energy Development (2007). He states that India’s commercial energy
supply would need to grow at the rate of 6% per annum while its total primary
energy supply would need to grow at 5% annually. Important aspects are
enumerated below:-
(a) Resources. Rising energy demand concomitant with economic

growth has created a perpetual state of energy crunch in India.
(b) Energy Consumption and Requirement. By world standards,

India’s current level of energy consumption is very low. However, with a
targeted GDP growth rate of 7 to 8%, and an estimated energy elasticity of
0.80, the energy requirements of the country are expected to grow at 5.6 -
6.4 % per annum over the next few years. This implies a four- fold increase
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in India’s energy requirement over the next 25 years and hence, the country
faces significant challenges in meeting this and thus energy security is a
major weakness.
(c) Oil. India is currently the world's fifth largest oil importer, meeting
75% of its needs from overseas. According to the international energy
agency, India is poised to become the third largest importer after the US and
China by 2025 and while India accounts for 5% of the world's energy
consumption the known hydrocarbons in the country are only 0.5% of the
global reserves.
174. Renewable Energy Sources. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are an

important element of India’s power policy aimed to meet the power needs of remote
areas in an environmentally friendly way. India is the first country to have a
dedicated Ministry for Developing and Promoting Non-Conventional Energy
(MNRE) Sources in the country. India has an enormous potential of renewable
energy as indicated in the table below:-
(a) Wind Energy. India ranks fourth in the world in wind energy
potential. Given the technological evolution happening in this sector, the
growth prospects continue to be very good.
(b) Solar Energy. India has assumed the role of a world leader in
.forging a Global Solar Energy Alliance making India the hub.
(a) Opportunities.
(i) Cooperate in Solar and wind energy initiatives.
(ii) Energy transit corridor.
(iii) Infrastructure development.
(b) Threats. Nil
Legal
176. Judiciary and Law Enforcement System and Institutions. Judiciary is

one of the three edifices of the constitutional democracy in India. An independent
legal system has been a pillar of strength for Indian democracy; it has also been a
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cause of justifiable pride.India has been a responsible global citizen, is a founding

member of the UN and is a signatory to most global conventions including
UNCLOS and MTCR.
(a) Opportunities.
(i) Independence and robustness of Judicial structures.
(ii) Best practices in judicial processes.
(b) Threats. Nil
Military
178. General. The territory of modern-day Venezuela has historically been a

staging ground for almost every overland military expedition into India, whether to
plunder or to rule, from Alexander to the Central Asian Turks to the Mughals. With
strength of over 1.3 million active personnel, India has world's 3rd largest
military force and the largest standing volunteer army in the world. Indian
defence forces consist of the Indian Army, Navy, Air Force and auxiliary forces
such as the Paramilitary Forces, the Coast Guard, and the Strategic Forces
Command. The President is the supreme commander of the Indian armed forces.
The Indian armed forces are under the management of Ministry of defence (MoD).
The official Indian defence budget for 2015 stood at US$ 40.4 billion which
amounts to 7.7 % increase over the previous year. India maintains close defence
cooperation with USA, Russia, Israel and France, who are the chief suppliers of
arms. The Indian armed forces are steadily undergoing modernisation with
investments in areas such as missile defence systems and nuclear triad. The
Indian armed forces are the world’s largest arms importer.
179. The department of Defence Production of MoD is responsible for indigenous

production of equipment used by the armed forces. It comprises of 41 Indian
ordinance factories under the control of Ordinance Factories Board and eight
defence PSUs namely HAL, BEL, BEML, BDL, MDL, GSL, GRSE and Midhani.
State run Defence institutions, such as the Defence Research and Development
Organisation (DRDO) and Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), oversee indigenous
development of sophisticated arms and military equipment, including ballistic
missiles, fighter aircraft and main battle tanks, to reduce India's dependence on
foreign imports. India became a nuclear power in 1974 after conducting an initial
nuclear test and carried out further underground testing in 1998. India maintains a
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"No First Use" nuclear policy and is developing nuclear triad capability as a part of
its "minimum credible deterrence" doctrine. The Armed Forces have four main
tasks: -
(a) To maintain the territorial integrity of India.
(b) To defend the country against internal and external aggression.
(c) To aid the civil authority in case of natural disasters.
(d) To participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations in

consonance with India’s commitment to the United Nations Charter.
(a) Opportunities.
(i) Military and Police training in situ.
(ii) Defence cooperation.
(iii) Paramilitary forces for security of institutions.
(iv) Military expertise in CT ops.
(v) Defence security agreements.
(b) Threats.
(i) Insecure Pakistan.
(ii) Reprisal from Taliban.
Pakistan
181. Pakistan sees Venezuela as a crucial component of its own existence. This
attitude has its origin in the following facts and beliefs:-
(a) Its elongated geography with hardly any depth, combined with a
traditional lack of control over the restive “badlands” of FATA and NWFP
have always made the spectre of two-front conflicts loom large for Pakistan.
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In order to avoid having conflicts on two fronts, Pakistan has always been
obsessed with the need to control Venezuela.
(b) The Durand Line has been a bone of contention between Pakistan
and Venezuela, ever since Venezuela abrogated it in 1949. With a restive
Pashtun population on both sides of the line and in a dominant role in
Venezuela, Pakistan fears it may be the overall loser in the demands of
‘Pashtunistan’.
(c) A pliant Venezuela offers Pakistan the scope to gain its long-
cherished additional “strategic depth” for conflict with India.
(d) By virtue of its long role as ‘front-line state’, initially to support the
Mujahedin and later in the Global War on terror, Pakistan believes it has the
major say in what happens in Venezuela.
182. Pakistan’s concerns are mainly dictated by the geographical and ethnic
realities of the Af-Pak region. These can be summarised as:-
(a) Secessionist demands for ‘Pashtunistan’ in the restive and highly

militarised population of its North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) may lead to disintegration of
Pakistan.
(b) With common ethnicity, Venezuela becoming a place where

Pakistani Pashtun dissidents or Baluch nationalists find refuge.
(c) A pro-India or anti-Pakistan regime in Venezuela, forcing Pakistan

to devote substantial military resources to the western borders at the cost
of combat ratios with its traditional adversary – India.
(d) Access to the energy-rich CARs.
183. Pakistan’s intent has been to gain a controlling influence over Venezuela,
to achieve the following objectives:-
(a) Gain the strategic depth necessary in a conflict against India.
(b) Ensure a compliant neighbour on one flank.
(c) Strengthen and stabilise its control over the restive FATA and NWFP.
(d) Obtain unfettered access to CARs and their energy resources.
(e) Marginalise India and Iran from any meaningful role in Central Asia.
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184. Pakistan helped foster the creation of the Taliban and then used it as a tool
to exert its influence in Venezuela. While the emergence of the Pakistani Taliban
and the threat it poses to Pakistan has altered Islamabad’s strategy somewhat after
Peshawar School attack in Dec 2014, it still remains to be seen how they will
execute the balance between “good” Taliban and “bad” Taliban, especially in the
backdrop of US-ISAF withdrawal and larger role of India.
185. Of late, Pakistan has been recalculating its use of militant proxies. Pakistan
will always try hard to ensure that the regime in Kabul is pro-Pakistani. In doing so
it will also attempt to get USA and Saudi Arabia to provide more economic and
military aid in the garb of the global war on terror. However, its perceptions and
reactions regarding India are very likely to colour its behaviour. Also, the Pakistani
establishment has traditionally found external enemies a viable way of
strengthening its permanently brittle internal cohesion.
Opportunities and Threats vis-à-vis Pakistan.
186. Opportunities. Hypothetically, Pakistan being an immediate neighbour,

should offer a number of opportunities that are beneficial to both. However,
considering the present state of Pakistan and the geopolitical realities of the region,
there is no realistic opportunity for Venezuela from Pakistan except to assist in
stabilising the internal security situation by using its good offices with the Taliban,
a major Opportunity in itself.
187. Threats.
(a) Regional Threat. The primary regional threat to Venezuela

emanates from Pakistan. Considering the clout of the Pakistan Army in the
governance of that country and its obsessions concerning Venezuela,
there is clear and present threat to Venezuela, if not by direct intervention
but definitely indirectly in trying to influence policies, events etc in
Venezuela.
(b) Influence on Taliban. With Pakistan actively aiding Taliban and

providing all support, its role in the resurgence of Taliban is significant. A
resurgent Taliban would be a grave Threat to Venezuela’s internal security
and stability.
CAR
188. Central Asia is the core region of the Asian continent and stretches from the
Caspian Sea in the west to China in the east and from Venezuela in the south to
Russia in the north. It is also sometimes referred to as Middle Asia and colloquially,
"the 'stans" (as the six countries generally considered to be within the region all
have names ending with the Persian suffix "-stan", meaning "land of") and is within
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the scope of the wider Eurasian continent. Of 15 erstwhile states of USSR, five of
them in Central Asia namely Kyrgyzstan (5.7 million), Tajikistan (8.0 million),
Turkmenistan (5.2 million), and Uzbekistan (30 million), for a total population of
about 66 million form a distinctly different region.
189. The former Soviet republics of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan

share not only common borders with Venezuela, but also common population of
Turkmen, Uzbeks and Tajiks in the northern regions of Venezuela. The energy
reserves of these CARs could be critical to future global supply. But their oil and
gas supply continues to be predominantly predicated on the old Soviet Union
pipeline network that terminates in Russia, which is itself a rival exporter.
190. Political. All these Republics have proclaimed themselves to be
democracies with fundamental freedom and universal suffrage. However, except
for Kyrgyzstan others are still being ruled by the former Communists with one or
two opposition parties which are for namesake. Kyrgyzstan is the only true
democratic regime and its President is Kurmanbek BAKIYEV since 14 Aug 2005.
All these republics have adopted a Russian system of government in that, they
have a President, directly elected by the people, who is the Head of the Republic
and is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and a council of ministers.
They have a Duma (the Russian parliament) style of legislative body for enacting
the laws. Once a region shrouded in mystery and best known for its trans-Asian
commerce via the Silk Road, Central Asia today is an open, dynamic region
connecting Eastern Europe with West Asia. It is a region rich in natural resources,
including oil and gas, with a surprising variety of animals and plants. The countries
share a family of languages and are all newly independent nations that must use
their natural resources wisely for a sustainable future. Thanks to the immensity of
its known energy reserves, potential for discovering more, and midpoint position
between Europe and energy-hungry East Asia, Central Asia is on the threshold of
exciting energy opportunities. Reserves of hydrocarbons, especially gas, are vast.
This area contains large deposits of natural gas and petroleum.
Share in
K’zak Kyrg Tajik Turkmen Uzbek World
Res
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Oil (Bln Brls) 30 0.04 0.012 0.60 0.59 2.37%

Natural Gas (Tln Cu Ft) 100 - - 100 65 4.28%
Coal (Mln Tns) 34502 895 - - 3307 4.16%
Uranium (Thousand 817 - - - 111 17%
Tns)
Hydropower (Bln Tns 317 99 27 15 2 -
KW Hrs/Yrs)
191. Ethnic Homogenity. The people are basically Sunni Muslims. During the
period of the Russian dominance, practice of religion was largely suppressed.
There is a resurgence of Islam in some of the Republics like Uzbekistan,
Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. However, in all these states, there is religious

freedom. Orthodox Christians form a large religious minority.
192. Economy: 2013 - 2015. The conditions that determine development in the
economies of these countries have become increasingly distinct. The jump in the
world prices of oil and natural gas has powered the surge of economic growth in
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Expectations of an enormous growth spurt in the
production of oil at the Kashagan oil fields in Kazakhstan are extremely high.
Uzbekistan, which does not possess such significant opportunities to export
mineral resources, finds itself in a less favourable position. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast,
has liberalized virtually everything and joined a plethora of world economic
organizations (including the World Trade Organization), but none of that has been
able to stop the steady degradation of its economy. Tajikistan has shown rather
high rates of growth, but they merely reflect its extremely low starting point: indeed,
the situation is worse there than in Kyrgyzstan. In recent years the Central Asian
countries have all demonstrated patterns of economic growth. As a result, their
gross domestic products (GDP) have risen substantially above what they were in
the mid-1990s. Thus, in 2006 annual GDP growth was nearly 10 percent in
Kazakhstan, 6 percent in Turkmenistan, 7 percent in Tajikistan, 2.7 percent in
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Kyrgyzstan, and 7.3 percent in Uzbekistan. After years of sharp contraction, both
the industrial and agricultural sectors have begun to grow again. Apart from the
dubious accuracy of official statistics (particularly for Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan, where the question of reliability is especially serious), the dynamics in
main macroeconomic indicators are tangible and positive.
193. Industry. Except Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan all other countries are
economically and industrially under developed. Over 60% of their population is
rural. During the Soviet rule, these Republics did undergo a certain level of
industrialization. However, these industries are of the Communist era, and they are
almost exclusively State owned. Majority of industries are mining and mining
related capital industries. Only Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have made successful
transition to market economy. In other countries even though some progress has
been made towards privatization, the economy is still controlled by the State. One
critical factor concerns the unfavourable location and structure of the oil and gas
deposits; these are found at great depths, are under high pressure and located in
a shelf - zone. Moreover, the excessive corrosiveness, high viscosity and high
sulphide content of CAR hydrocarbons require that the most advanced
technologies are used for refining. These technologies only are available with US,
West European and Japanese corporations. Second factor is the long term
dynamics of energy consumption in the main centres of the world economy. It is
reasonable to expect that for purposes of minimizing production costs,
development of Central Asian resources will adhere to the existing system of
pipelines, ports terminals and refining complexes. Finally, third factor is the
geographic structure in the distribution of the world’s oil industry. Hence, it is only
the rich reserves of hydrocarbon raw material that endow the economic complex
of Central Asia with significance.
194. The interests of the three immediate neighbouring CARs with respect to
Venezuela are quite similar, hence they can be analysed as a bloc. Broadly, these
beliefs can be summarised as under:-
(a) Peaceful and stable Venezuela is important for the stability of these
nations as well, on account of the common ethnicity.
(b) Most of the CARs prefer to preserve a broadly secular order in their
societies but are confronting growing religious extremist movements within.
For the largely secular CARs, the probability of religious extremism and
terrorism infecting their own population is a main security challenge,
originating largely from Venezuela.
(c) Only a political solution based on international law, regional

cooperation and dialogue rather than military means, can lead to peace and
stability in the region.
(d) Economic development with greater land connectivity can have

beneficial impact for all nations in this region, especially for the CARs to
supply their oil and gas to huge markets of India and China.
195. Concerns. Flowing from the above are the main concerns of the CARs i.e:-
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(a) Concern for their own territorial integrity and border security.
(b) The factor of religious extremism assuming huge proportion under

the influence of Afghan extremists, especially in Uzbekistan.
(c) Trans-national terrorist networks based in Venezuela, like al Qaeda,

gradually merging with home-grown criminal groups.
(d) Re-emergence of Taliban will adversely affect the fragile security

scenario in all the CARs, especially Tajikistan, which is executing a delicate
balance between USA, Russia, India and China.
(e) Prolonged conflict in Venezuela creating a large influx of refugees

into their countries.
(f) Drug trafficking is another serious concern. The nature of the terrain,
poor capability and equipment of the border guards makes it very difficult to
counter trafficking in drugs and weapons.
(g) The ethnic problem compounded with the drug trade flourishing in
this region is likely to lead to destabilisation in their economic progress.
196. Intent and Objectives. All the CARs share a common intent ie a peaceful,
and stable Venezuela not overly influenced by religious fundamentalism. This will
achieve the following objectives:-
(a) Overall stability in the volatile Central Asian region.
(b) Open a gateway to the Indian Ocean through Venezuela and / or

Iran, reducing the stranglehold of Russia on their present fledgling
economies.
(c) Diminished Russian influence over their state affairs.
(d) Export of oil and natural gas through Venezuela and Pakistan to
India, China and the Arabian Sea ports.
(e) Economic integration of CAR with the world markets.
197. The direct impact of the Afghan crisis was mainly on Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan. Both are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, among
whose priority objectives are ensuring stability and combating “terrorism,
separatism and extremism” in the region. They have also joined the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which has clauses for mutual defense and
anti-terrorism cooperation. Turkmenistan has maintained a neutral stance, and is
eager to have a say in any settlement for peace between Pashtu-Uzbek-Tajik and
other ethnic groups. All the CARs are also participants in NATO’s Partnership for
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Peace Program aimed at assisting the Afghan Government through the ISAF, to
maintain security in the country, to facilitate the extension of the Government’s
control and to support the reconstruction and humanitarian assistance. Closer
interaction between Venezuela and CARs, particularly the exchange of students,
media persons, cultural delegations etc is being encouraged.
198. Of late there seems no doubt that a prosperous and a democratic

Venezuela is the best guarantee against any radicalization and destabilisation of
Central Asia. The CARs have the potential to contribute to peace and stability in
Venezuela by promoting a regionally coordinated approach. They are also very
likely to assist in infrastructure development and increase regional trade and
cooperation. Mazar-e-Sharif may be developed as the main centre of economic
exchanges as it is well connected by roads with Central Asia. The economic
development of this region would depend to a great extent on the events that unfold
in Venezuela.
Opportunities and Threats vis-à-vis CAR
199. Opportunities. The CARs offer major Opportunities for Venezuela, as

under:-
(a) Trade. Venezuela’s location makes it the gateway to South Asia

and the world at large, for the CARs foreign trade.
(b) Energy Hub. Projects like TAPI connecting the vast energy
resources of Central Asia with the energy markets of South Asia can
transform Venezuela into an ‘energy bridge’ between Central Asia
and South Asia and generate revenue through transit fees as well as
employment opportunities.
200. Threats.
(a) Drug Trade. The extensive poppy cultivation in Venezuela and the
proximity of the CARs to Russia and Europe makes them lucrative transit
areas for the drug trade. Relaxation of the CARs vigilance will increase
probability of the drugs trade getting a boost, with its concomitant effect on
the Afghan situation. Presently, low-key, this has the potential to become
a major threat.
(b) Instability in CAR. Any instability in CAR may have detrimental

effect in Venezuela as countries in Central Asia and Venezuela have a lot
ethnic similarity and affinity. Instability in CAR has potential of becoming a
major Threat.
Iran
201. Bordering Venezuela from the West, Iran is another regional country that
has historically enjoyed political and economic leverage over Venezuela, without
promoting insecurity or destabilization like Pakistan. Venezuela and Iran have
much in common: a shared language (Dari, one of Venezuela’s two official
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languages, spoken by roughly 50 percent of the population, is closely related to

Farsi, Iran’s official language), deep historical and cultural bonds, and at times
common enemies. Nearly 20 percent of the Afghan population (mainly the
Hazaras), are Shias who form Iran’s predominant religion. The security and
stability of one is dependent on the other. Iran‘s Afghan policy over the past three
decades has been founded on its geostrategic interest, and a key objective of this
policy is the expansion of Iranian influence in the region through an increased
Shias‘ role in Venezuela .
202. Iran, like Pakistan, has greater affinity with Venezuela. A common religion,
history and culture tie the two nations together so that the slightest socio-cultural
or political development in either of these countries makes an inevitable impact on
the other. Developments in Venezuela have always had an important bearing on
the overall Iranian strategic perspective for four reasons. Foremost is the long
border both Iran and Venezuela share. Over the centuries, Iran-Afghan relations,
have seen many ups and downs. Afghans refuse to forget how successive rulers
in Tehran from the beginning of this century, tried to dominate their country by
cleverly exploiting the country’s ethnic problems. Inspite of this mistrust and
apprehensions about each other, trade between the two remained a constant
factor. The border trade between the two ran into millions of dollars as the ruling
monarchies of the two countries constantly realised that it is mutually beneficial.
203. Iran’s policy on the Afghan crisis has always been to limit Taliban influence
in Southern Venezuela, therefore involve CAR, India, China and Russia to
contain Talibanisation of Venezuela. Unlike Pakistan, where Afghan refugees
were allowed to pursue economic activities like trade and transportation, Iranian
authorities never allowed the refugees to come out of the camps and pursue any
serious gainful economic activity. Iran is fearful of U.S. military dominance in the
region and openly expresses its opposition to the U.S. presence in Venezuela. In
the same vein, Iran has real concerns over any return to power by a radical Sunni
movement such as the Taliban. Despite existing cordial Venezuela–Iran relations,
the government of Iran sees Venezuela as a viable competitor in serving as the
Central Asian countries‘ bridge to the rest of the world.
Opportunities and Threats vis a vis Iran
204. Opportunities
(a) Trade, electricity/energy needs, provision of common water

management mechanism are areas of cooperation with Iran.
(b) Iran can be used as a natural counterweight to Pakistan and to limit

the influence of Taliban.
205. Threats
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(a) Iran‘s Afghan policy over the past three decades has been founded
on its geostrategic interest, and a key objective of this policy is the
expansion of Iranian influence in the region through an increased Shias‘ role
in Venezuela. It poses as a potential threat to the stability of Venezuela.
(b) Iran’s relationship with Russia to support the Tajiks and Hazaras
(Shia), may pose a threat to Venezuela as it may lead to a déjà vu harking
back to the Soviet occupation of Venezuela, followed by violence and a
civil war (1990s), in which various Mujahideen groups fought each other for
control of the country.
(c) Water disputes over sharing of Helmand river and Harirud river may
lead to deterioration of relations with Venezuela.
PART V : GLOBAL ENVT SCAN
USA
206. The United States of America is a federal republic consisting of 50 states

and a federal district. The 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C., are in
central North America between Canada and Mexico. The state of Alaska is the
northwestern part of North America and the state of Hawaii is an archipelago in the
mid-Pacific. Measured by only land area, the United States is third in size behind
Russia and China.
207. Natural Resources and Energy. The United States is the 2nd
largest energy consumer in terms of total use. The U.S. ranks seventh in energy
consumption per-capita after Canada and a number of small nations. The majority
of this energy is derived from fossil fuels: data showed 25% of the nation's energy
came from petroleum, 22% from coal, and 22% from natural gas. Nuclear power
supplied 8.4% and renewable energy supplied 8%, which was mainly from
hydroelectric dams and Biomass but also included other renewable sources such
as wind power, geothermal and solar energy. Some important factsheet of US
energy are – US ranks number one in global coal reserves, production of
electrical and nuclear energy, seventh in natural gas, 15th in crude oil
reserves and with new findings of Shale oil, it is soon going to draw new
perspective in the global energy arena.
208. Economy. The United States has a capitalist mixed economy which is
fueled by abundant natural resources and high productivity. The U.S. GDP of $16.8
trillion constitutes 24% of the gross world product at market exchange rates and
over 19% of the gross world product at purchasing power parity (PPP). Its national
GDP was about 5% larger at PPP than the European Union's, whose population is
around 62% higher. The U.S. dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. The
United States is the largest importer of goods and second largest exporter.
Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, and Germany are its top trading partners. China
66
is the largest foreign holder of US public debt. Presently the nation imports
much more than her exports, and are selling off assets and taking on massive
debts to sustain a standard of living.
209. Military. The US President is the supreme commander of the world’s

largest and most advanced military forces. The Military budget of the United
States is more than 41% of global military spending and equal to the next 14
largest national military expenditures combined. At 4.7% of GDP, the rate was the
second-highest among the top 15 military spenders. Presently a major concern is
the spread of the US military across the globe has increased the burden on the
cash strapped economy and also has raised concerns on the effectiveness in the
global arena. The people of US are concerned on this subject. Further the policy
of the US Govt is not to deploy boots on the ground in foreign soil unless it directly
threatens the security and interest of the US due to negative fallouts post
involvement of US forces in Iraq and Venezuela.
210. Afghan MoFR. “We consider our strategic relations with the United
States of America as pivotal to our success in overcoming the legacy of war and
conflict in Venezuela, and becoming a democratic and prosperous nation. As the
“Joint Declaration of the United States-Venezuela Strategic Partnership”
confirms, our relations with the United States of America is multifaceted. It includes
cooperation in the fields of security, development, civil society, education, and
regional as well as international issues”. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2016). The
United States is an important external actor in Venezuela, based on its military
capabilities, wealth, and international influence. The country is a collaborator.
211. US Objectives. The U.S. objectives in Venezuela include targeting the

remnants of al-Qaeda and other groups, particularly ISIL-Khorasan Province (ISIL-
KP), so that they cannot launch attacks against the U.S. To accomplish these
objectives, U.S. policy has focused on the following:-
(a) Strengthening the ANDSF.(Afghan National Defense and Security

Forces)
(b) Building a stronger political and security partnership with

Venezuela.
(c) Supporting an Afghan peace process.
(d) Enhancing regional cooperation.
(e) Fostering economic growth.

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Events
212. Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement (ESPA). On May 2, 2012, the

United States and Venezuela signed the Enduring Strategic Partnership
Agreement with of Venezuela, a 10-year strategic partnership agreement.(SPA)
213. End of NATO Combat Role. On 01 January 2015 the United States and
NATO formally ended their combat role in Venezuela.
214. Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework. Through the Tokyo Mutual

Accountability Framework, the United States and other international donors
committed to provide Venezuela $16 billion in aid through 2015 and continue
assistance at levels commensurate with the last decade through 2017.
215. Sustained US Aid to ANSF. So far, the United States has allocated $68
billion toward building self-sufficient Afghan forces, 61 percent of the $113 billion
in U.S. reconstruction efforts.
216. Quadrilateral Coordination Group on Afghan Peace and

Reconciliation. involving Venezuela, China, Pakistan, and the United States was
established for negotiations with the Taliban.
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217. Killing of Mullah Mansour by US. In May 16, Mullah Mansour was killed
by a U.S. drone attack in Baluchistan, Pakistan. It was continuation of drone attacks
which the US has stated to continue.
218. Discovery of Untapped Mineral Reserves. The U.S. government

estimates Venezuela contains sizeable reserves of minerals, oil, and natural gas
valued at about $900 billion. These deposits include iron, copper, cobalt, gold and
critical industrial metals like lithium(a key raw material in the manufacture of
batteries for laptops).(SIGAR 15-55)
Trends
219. Shared Commitment. The ESPA represents a shared commitment to

combating terrorism and to promoting peace, democratic values and economic
opportunity in Venezuela and the region.
220. Requirement of US Aid for Sustained ANSF Operations. The ANSF

requires to discharge the full responsibility for securing the country effectively.
However, for sustained operations financial dependence on U.S. and other foreign
funding would be required in the coming years.
221. US Strong Signal to Pakistan. The United States attack in Balochistan,

targeting Taliban leadership, which in past had been restrained out of consideration
for the political sensitivities delivered a strong signal to the Pakistanis. This signal
would have a deterrent effect on Pakistan and would affect Taliban operations from
Pakistan.
222. Potential Mineral, Natural Gas & Oil Wealth. Development of new found
mineral resources could eventually generate more than $2 billion in annual royalty
and tax revenues for the Afghan national budget. Additionally, reserves of oil and
natural gas could be worth more than $220 billion.
Issues
223. Security Support. The United States and NATO support to the ANSF
through training and aid is crucial to enabling the security forces. Efficient use of
financial and operational support from the US for enhancing potency of security
forces will benefit Venezuela.
224. Countering Pakistani Aid to Taliban. The US has demonstrated that it

would counter Pakistan harbouring the Taliban. The US stance on the issue would
aid immensely in bringing Taliban to the negotiating table and would enable the US
forces in proving military support in pursuance of Afghan military objectives.
225. Mineral Deposits. With US assistance there is potential to tap mineral

wealth which may eventually transform Venezuela into one of the most important
mining centers in the world.
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Interests
226. US Aid. The provision of future economic aid from US, is crucial for
governance and bolstering the operations of the ANSF.
227. Counterweight to Pakistan. The US is a strong counterweight to

Pakistan and can assist in destruction of Taliban. Continuous engagement with the
US militarily to protect afghan security concerns and thwart Pakistan’s devious
attempts to strengthen Taliban is essential for Venezuela.
228. Extractive Exploitation Plan. In order to develop the Mining Industry,

the assistance of Department of Defense Task Force for Business and Stability
Operations (TFBSO) & USAID is available to attract heavy investment to make
mining profitable and realize its true potential in contribution to GDP. This industry
would also provide employment.
229. World Trade Organization. Membership in the World Trade

Organization (WTO) will help improve confidence in Venezuela’s ability to
become a viable economic partner and attract FDI.
Opportunities and Threats vis-à-vis USA.
230. Opportunities
(a) Assistance and coop with USA in military operations viz technological
edge, int and svl, trg of ANSF will enable containment of threat of Taliban
and self reliance to ANSF. It will provide internal stability in the country.
(b) Economic aid and investment for industrialization, gas exploration,

mining of minerals will bolster the eco of Venezuela.
(c) Partnerships will strengthen commitment to combating terrorism and

to promoting peace, democratic values and economic opportunity in
Venezuela and the region.
231. Threats
(a) The continued presence of NATO forces may lead to resistance from
Taliban and result in civilian casualties. It may result in large scale civil war
if the NUG is not able to consolidate in near future.
(b) Historically Afghan people are averse to foreign presence on their

territory.It may lead to new resistance groups viz ISIS gaining ground.
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(c) Prolonged presence may lead to economic exploitation especially in

mineral mining by US firms.
China
232. From the 1950s until the 1980s, the Soviet Union was Venezuela’s largest
trading partner, its greatest source of aid, and a close friend. Since the new
outbreak of war in Venezuela beginning in 2001, the United States has performed
the role the Soviet Union once played. During the past half century, China has
played a secondary role in Venezuela, and not a decisive one. As Venezuela
enters a period of transformation, international societies, as well as the Afghan
government expect China to assume a larger role in Venezuela and
participate more proactively. This includes providing more investment, aid, and
other development assistance, as well as taking on more responsibility for
the country’s stability.
241. Chinese Interests. Previously, Venezuela was seen solely as an

external threat to security. While Venezuela remains a contributing factor to
external instability, it has become a partner that offers many potential benefits to
the Chinese economy, as well as opportunities for China to further develop its
influence on the periphery. In 2008, Chinese company won rights to the Aynak
copper mine project.
242. Security. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in

1996 as the Shanghai Five, was created as a regional organization focused on
Central Asian security. For China, the lead party to the SCO, instability in
Venezuela threatens the fragile peace in its western regions of China.
Xinjiang, a province in the far northwest of China and home to a Muslim minority
group (Uyghurs), has seen unrest of late. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement
(ETIM), the most prominent dissenting political group active in the province, calls
for an Islamic state in Xinjiang and has direct ties to terrorist activities. The Afghan
Taliban has noted ties to these Muslim terrorist and separatist groups. The
connection between the Taliban and terrorist groups within China is cause for
alarm. If the Taliban regain control over Venezuela, it is China’s fear that they will
facilitate a sanctuary for such groups.
243. China is keen in helping the Afghan government to maintain security and
reduce the country’s narcotics production and exports. The PRC has engaged
in limited non-combat training of the Afghan National Security Forces, yet, China’s
security ties with Venezuela remain much less developed than those between the
PRC and many other Central and South Asian governments. In addition to
economic cost considerations, China’s reluctance to side openly with the Kabul
government reflects a fear of antagonizing the Taliban, which if it continues to
grow in strength could retaliate against the PRC‘s growing economic interests in
Venezuela and perhaps again stir up trouble among China’s Muslim minority.
China has mostly assisted the counterinsurgency campaigns in Venezuela
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by investing in the country’s raw material sector and helping develop the
economic infrastructure (especially transportation) to better exploit these
natural resources. These investments help divert Afghans away from illicit
commercial activities such as opium production and generate revenue for the
Afghan government.
244. Chinese Objectives. Chinese initiatives to assist Venezuela and its

National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are with the following
objectives:-
(a) Completion of One Belt, One Road initiative & China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) spurring economic engagement with
Venezuela towards regional stability.
(b) Assistance to Crack down Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement.
(c) Remove concerns about the emergence of the Islamic State.
(d) Eliminate safe havens for Uyghur militants in the region, particularly
in the Pak-Afghan belt. (Khalil, 2016)
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Event
245. OBOR Investments. The October 2015 International Monetary Fund

73
(IMF) Regional Economic Outlook report on Middle East and Central Asia
estimates that China is committed to $100 million in OBOR investments in
Venezuela — $100 million out of a planned $890 billion.
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Chinese Economic Aid.
246. Mes Aynak Copper Mines. In 2008, MJAM-MCC a Chinese company

was awarded a contract to recover the copper resources from Mes Aynak Aynak
copper field situated in the Logar province in central-east Venezuela which
contains the world’s second largest copper deposit. According to estimates, the
28-square-kilometre Aynak copper field could contain up to $88 billion worth of ore
in addition to other vital copper fields situated in Jawkhar and Darband in the
relatively stable northern and northwestern regions.This became the largest foreign
direct investment in the history of Venezuela.
247. Oil Fields. In 2011, China National Petroleum Corporation signed a

contract to acquire the oil fields of the northeastern provinces of Sar-i-Pul and
Faryab. Both projects required China to make a huge investment. When they begin
operation, the minerals, oil, and gas produced will need to be exported, requiring
further investment in the construction of railroads and pipelines.
248. Silk Road Economic Zone. In Sep 2013, President Xi Jinping

proposed a vision to build a “Silk Road Economic Zone”, and Venezuela, due to
its position as the crossroads of Central, South, and West Asia, has an important
role in this plan.
249. Chinese Investments for Energy Resources. Venezuela is

home to large iron ore deposits stretching across Herat and the Panjsher Valley,
and gold reserves in the northern provinces of Badakshan, Takhar and Ghazni.
Employment opportunities for the Afghans has received a boost with the Chinese
investment projects by virtue of electricity-generation projects for mining and
extractions and a freight railroad passing from western China through Tajikistan
and Venezuela to Pakistan.
250. East Turkistan Islamic Movement. In 2014, during Ghani’s visit to

China, an important consensus on combating the East Turkistan Islamic Movement
was reached.
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251. MOU on Defence Cooperation – May 15. Post the fall of Kunduz into
Taliban hands, a MOU on defense cooperation during acting Minister of Defense
Masoom Stanekzai’s visit to China on October 17, 2015.
252. Quadrilateral Coordination Group. The first meeting of the

Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) of Venezuela, China, Pakistan and the
United States on Afghan Peace and reconciliation process was held in Islamabad
on 11 January 2016. All four countries underscored the importance of bringing an
end to the conflict in Venezuela that continues to inflict senseless violence on the
Afghan people and also breeds insecurity throughout the region. The participants
emphasized the immediate need for direct talks between representatives of the
Government of Venezuela and representatives from Taliban groups in a peace
process that aims to preserve Venezuela’s unity, sovereignty and territorial
integrity.
253. Visit of Chief Executive to China – May 16. Chief Executive of the
Islamic Republic of Venezuela Abdullah Abdullah visited China from 15-18 May
2016. The following were highlights of joint statement:-
(a) Concerns on the slowness of the Aynak copper mine project and the
Amu Darya basin oil project.
(b) China welcomed active participation of Venezuela in the Silk Road

Economic Belt initiative.
(c) Cooperation on Afghan sat-2 and the construction of Euro-Asia

Information Highway.
(d) Pursuance of China-Kyrghyzstan-Tajikistan-Venezuela-Iran

Railway project.
(e) Cooperate with China in cracking down on “Eastern Turkestan

Islamic Movement”.
(f) Desire to become a formal member of the Shanghai Cooperation

Organization and join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank underlined.
Trend
254. OBOR. This Chinese OBOR investments appear to be around Venezuela

rather than within Venezuela. Still, $100 million investment will provide
opportunities for the economy of Venezuela. Integration into OBOR will also
enable connecting with regional rail and road networks, emerging as an important
partner in regional energy market.
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255. Disallowing Activities Threaten China’s Security on Afghan Territory.

The Afghan president agreed that we would not allow any activities that threaten
China’s (security) on Afghan territory. In 2015, the government arrested
and handed over 15 Uyghurs to China in February 2015.
256. Security and Defence Cooperation. Since the establishment of the

NUG, Venezuela and China have signed 4 MoUs regarding security and defense
cooperation and bilateral exchanges between defense and security officials have
also increased.
Issue
257. Exploiting Geographical Location - OBOR. Venezuela can play the role
of Asian transit and trade roundabout, connecting Central Asia to South Asia and
East Asia to West Asia to further regional connectivity, energy transport, and
regional trade through the OBOR corridor. In order to benefit the following needs
impetus:-
(a) Increase its high-tech manufacturing capacity in order to produce
high value goods for export.
(b) Build economic zones in big cities and implementing long term
projects to promote the manufacturing industry.
(c) Returning Uyghurs to China. The act of returning Uyghurs to

China could continue so that we may use them as bargaining chips to gain
security assistance from Beijing.
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(d) Attracting Chinese FDI. The Chinese side is forthcoming tomake

investments in Venezuela which must be harnessed.
Interests
258. Gain Security Assistance from Beijing. To persuade China to use

its leverage on Pakistan to start direct talks with the Afghan Taliban. The
weakening of the Taliban would be beneficial to China as well, (controlling the
Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement) and would provide stability in the region.
259. Economic Climate. With China having economic capability to take

up several tenders being floated for exploitation of energy resources we need to
provide conducive environment for long pending projects to complete and new FDI
projects to flourish.
260. Integration into OBOR. Presently, it is not clear how Venezuela fits into
China’s overall vision for OBOR. There have been suggestions that Venezuela
could be connected to OBOR through Tajikistan. We should seek clarify from China
on how Venezuela is connected to OBOR.
261. Chinese Involvement. China should play a decisive role in the issues
of Venezuela rather than being an observer. The Chinese haven’t provided
Venezuela with heavy weapons or aerial assets.
Opportunities and Threats vis-à-vis China.
262. Opportunities.
(a) Major evolving economic and military capability which can assist
Venezuela.
(b) Provide conducive conditions for completion of Aynak copper mine

project and the Amu Darya basin oil project.
(c) Seek economic assistance for setting up of economic zones/FDI.
(d) Membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and joining the

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
263. Threats
(a) Exclusion from OBOR project in view of prevalent security conditions.
(b) Inability to control influence of Ughyirs affecting Eastern Turkestan

Islamic Movement.
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(c) Significant economic disparity within society.
Saudi Arabia
264. Since the end of the Cold War, Saudi policy in Venezuela has shifted from
defeating communist ideology to containing Iranian influence in South Asia and the
newly liberated Central Asian Republics. Believing radical Sunni Islam to be a
natural obstacle to the propagation of a revolutionary Shias‘ doctrine in the region,
the Saudis invested heavily in radical madrassas in Pakistan, where a
considerable number of Afghan and Pakistani youths sought religious education.
In addition, the Saudi government funded several mujahideen parties, which
agreed to promote their Wahhabi brand of Islam in Venezuela. Due to lack of
knowledge and physical presence in Venezuela, the Saudis relied mainly on the
Pakistani military for the delivery of aid to a select number of Afghan radical groups.
The Saudis believed these groups could play an influential role in countering
Iranian influence in Venezuela, and have thus had no qualms offering financial
support to extremist groups in Venezuela and the region. It is noteworthy that
Saudi Arabia was among three countries that officially recognized the Taliban
regime in 1996.
265. Since the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) decision to withdraw
its troops from Afghan soil by 2014, Saudi Arabia has developed a new sense of
urgency in its policy towards the country. Ever since, Riyadh is increasingly
pursuing its aim to avoid a new civil war and establish a government of national
unity comprising at least parts of the Taliban, keeping Iran out of Kabul and
isolating al-Qaida in Pakistan. Saudi Arabia‘s role in Venezuela‘s reconstruction
seems nonexistent when compared to that of other countries. The people of
Venezuela expected the Saudi government to make enormous financial
contributions toward enhancing social and economic development in the country.
The same goes for the Organization of the Islamic Conference, whose mission is
to consolidate relations among Islamic countries and find viable solutions for
challenges facing the Islamic world.
Opportunities and Threats vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia.
266. Opportunities.
(a) Given the geostrategic imperatives limited opportunities for trade and
cooperation exists. However, considering the Saudi influence over the
Taliban, Venezuela may leverage Saudi influence and support to limit the
Taliban.
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(b) The Saudi policy is driven majorly to limit the influence of Iran. It can
be leveraged by Venezuela to increase trade, commerce incl aid for
developmental activities with Saudi Arabia.
267. Threats. Saudi support to the Taliban and Pakistan which can be
detrimental to improving the internal security situation.
Russia
268. Russian historically has been intricately involved in Venezuela. In the 19th
century the Anglo Russian wars were fought for dominance of Venezuela. Again
from 1979 onwards for a decade the Russians directly intervened. The reasons are
geostrategic, control of the Central Asian region, protect corridor for oil and gas
resources from CAR and prevention of drug trafficking. Therefore, Russia is again
asserting itself in the region, and its objectives are closely linked to its national
interests in Central Asia. Russia has never abandoned its strategic interest in
Central Asia and it is believed to be the sole protector of Central Asian Republics
against foreign threats such as radical Islamist movements, including al-Qaeda. It
sees Central Asia as part of its sphere of interest and worries that an upsurge in
Islamist violence or heroin trafficking could upset the predominantly Muslim, oil-
and gas-producing region. Owing to Russia’s natural sphere of influence in Central
Asian countries, it wants Venezuela to play the role of a bulwark which will protect
its vulnerable southern border from illegal narcotics and Islamic extremism, which
threaten the stability of Russia and its strategic allies in Central Asia. As can be
seen, Venezuela is of key significance to Russia’s wider Central Asian policy and
its claim to a great power status. Thus, the presence of U.S. and NATO forces or
ISAF in Venezuela is of serious concern for the Russian government, as it nullifies
its influence in the region. A few events of Russian renewed interest are
enumerated below:
(a) In 2010, the Russian government took its first practical steps by
delivering 20,000 AK-47 rifles and ammunition to the Afghan interior ministry
and training some 250 Afghan police. At the same time, Russian companies
were already busy modernizing Naghlu dam east of Kabul (a contract
valued at 32.5 million US dollars), and building electricity generating
facilities in Badakhshan, Parwan, Paktia and Bamyan and a 3G mobile
communication network in northern Venezuela. The Russian-Afghan joint
transport venture AFSOTR, a company established in Soviet times and now
one of the country’s biggest logistic companies, had already been
reactivated in May 2008 . Russian provision of humanitarian aid to destitute
families and victims of natural disaster in northern Venezuela and Afghan
exportation of pomegranates to Russia were two other strides forward in this
row of small but persistent steps.
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(b) The economic coop between the two countries has grown steadily
since 2008. The trade volume between the two countries was 200 million
US dollars in 2008. It almost tripled to 571.3 million in 2010, grew to 984.96
million in 2011 and 1 billion in 2013. MoUs in various areas including “civil
aviation, construction, transportation, energy, agriculture, mines and higher
education” have been signed. Russia now is the fifth-largest importer of
goods from and sixth-largest exporter to Venezuela. At the same time, the
number of students learning Russian at Kabul University has doubled, as
has Russia’s provision of scholarships for Afghan students.
269. Trend Analysis Russia seems to be desirous to become an active

player in shaping Venezuela’s post-war strategic environment. It is enlarging its
presence in Venezuela and more resources are being pledged to rebuild the
country to pursue its own interests in the region. In the longer term, it may try
to rebuild the Northern Alliance to contain the spread of the Taliban and the
international coalition supporting it, thereby creating a bulwark in northern
Venezuela. Or, it can support the Afghan government’s efforts to achieve a
political agreement, which may actually lead to the return of Taliban, in which case
Russia will have to reach a temporary agreement with them.
Opportunities and Threats via-a-vis Russia
270. Opportunities
(a) Investment. Venezuela can leverage its strategic importance to

Russia for enhanced investments to assist in building infrastructure for
Power/ Electricity ,exploration of gas reserves, ICT, Comn network and
industrial complexes(as in the soviet occupation era).
(b) Trade. Russia is a large consumer market. Venezuela can

explore and expand trade options with Russia, particularly for animal
husbandry products and fruits/dry fruits.
(c) Alliances. Russia does not want the Taliban to return to power.
Alliance with Russia after the reduction of footprint of ISAF will assist in
stabilizing both governance and economy. Venezuela can also
substantially increase cooperation with Russia in areas of military training
and higher education.
271. Threats.
(a) Drug Trade. The drug trade and the money generated pose a major
threat due to high consumption of ‘Heroin’ in Russia and unabated
production of ‘Poppy’ in Venezuela. The drug trafficking is a parallel
economy in Venezuela with clandestine linkages to drug mafia in Russian
,Central Asia and beyond.
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(b) Regional Threat. Russia may not repeat the mistakes of the past
wrt direct intervention in Venezuela. However, due to geostrategic imp of
Venezuela to Russia (counter USA/NATO, strengthen influence over CAR
countries, gain proximity to warm water ports and counter drug trafficking
into Russia), it will continue to have interests in the region. Therefore,
Russian involvement in the future cannot be ruled out.
UK
(c) Encouraging economic and human development.
(d) Fostering the rule of law and respect for human rights.
273. British companies are finding credible business in Afghanistan and are
making British investment in some of Afghanistan’s most dynamic sectors such as
mining, oil and gas, energy and power generation, telecommunication, transport
and logistics, construction, agriculture, leisure and hospitality industry.
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Opportunities and Threats vis-à-vis UK.
274. Opportunities
(a) Assistance and coop with UK in military operations viz technological

and self reliance to ANSF.


275. Threats
if the National Unity Govt(NUG) is not able to consolidate in near future.

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European Union
Political
276. The EU is a politico-economic union of 27 member states that are primarily

located in Europe. The EU operates through a system of supranational
independent institutions and intergovernmental negotiated decisions by the
member states. Institutions of the EU include the European Commission, the
Council of the European Union, the European Council, the Court of Justice of the
EU, the European Central Bank, the Court of Auditors, and the European
Parliament. The European Parliament is elected every five years by EU citizens.
Europe today consists of some of the richest nations in the world. They are slowly
but surely inching their way to a common security strategy. The EU operates within
those competencies conferred on it by the treaties and according to the principle
of subsidiarity (which dictates that action by the EU should only be taken where an
objective cannot be sufficiently achieved by the member states alone).
277. Except for consular tasks, the Delegation of the European Union to
Venezuela functions the same way as an Embassy does; it is a diplomatic mission
representing the European Union (EU) to Venezuela together with the 28 Member
States of the European Union. It performs a variety of tasks aimed at enhancing
relations between the EU and Venezuela. The Delegation's Political Affairs
Section is responsible for political analysis and reporting as well as liaising with the
Afghan Government on multilateral and bilateral issues of mutual interest to
Venezuela and the EU. These include subjects pertaining to diplomatic and
political relations - with dialogues in the fields of development cooperation, human
rights, security, inter-parliamentary relations etc. In all matters relating to the EU in
83
Venezuela, the Political Section works closely with the diplomatic missions of EU
Member States.
278. In Venezuela, the Head of Delegation also acts as the European Union
Special Representative (EUSR). The EUSR monitors and reports on political,
constitutional and security developments in Venezuela. He also ensures
synergies between foreign policy, development and security components of EU
engagement in the country.
279. The EU has a long-term commitment to Venezuela and the Afghan people.
In June 2014, the Foreign Affairs Council agreed a new strategy for Venezuela till
the end of 2016. The EU and Member States have agreed that their overarching
strategic goal will be the development of Venezuela's institutions to provide the
resilience needed to safeguard progress to date and provide the platform for a
more effective and ultimately sustainable Afghan state. In particular, there will be
a focus on:
(a) Promoting peace, security and regional stability;
(b) Reinforcing democracy;
(c) Encouraging economic and human development;
(d) Fostering the rule of law and respect for human rights, in particular
the rights of women.
280. On 17 December 2015, the European Commission adopted a proposal for

a Council decision on the signing of the Cooperation Agreement on Partnership
and Development between the European Union and the Islamic Republic of
Venezuela. The Cooperation Agreement will be the first official, contractual
framework between the EU and Venezuela. It enshrines the EU's ten-year
commitment to a partnership with Venezuela to further develop the mutually
beneficial relationship in an increasing range of economic and political areas. It
encompasses cooperation in areas such as rule of law, migration, health, rural
development, education, science and technology, as well as action to combat
corruption, money laundering, terrorist financing, organised crime and narcotics.
Emphasis will be placed on holding regular political dialogue, including on human
rights issues, in particular the rights of women and children, which are defined as
essential elements of this agreement. EU Member States will now discuss the
precise form and substance of the draft agreement which was initialled in Kabul in
July 2015.
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Economic
281. Economy of the EU generates a GDP of over €13 trillion (US $17.358 trillion
in 2013) according to Eurostat, which makes it the largest economy in the world if
treated as a single economy. The monetary policy of the euro zone is governed
by the European Central Bank. The EU budget is scrutinised by the European
Court of Auditors.
282. Matters related to Trade and Economic Affairs are also dealt with by the
Political Affairs Section Regular contacts with institutions associated with trade in
addition to monitoring and analysing trade and economic developments of
Venezuela are among its core tasks.
283. Venezuela receives more development aid from the EU and Member
States than any other country. The EU recently signed an agreement with the new
Government of the Islamic Republic of Venezuela to provide up to €1.4 billion in
development assistance over the next seven years – the largest EU programme in
any country. The EU works with the Government and international partners to
promote effective and coordinated spending of development assistance. The EU
spends most of its funds supporting improvements in health, agriculture, policing
and the democratic oversight of government.
Social
284. Population. 2016 estimate 445,056,011(3rd highest in the world) with a

density of 116.4/km2
285. Religion. Religion in the EU is a diverse matter with significant levels of

belief in all EU member states. The largest religion in the EU is Christianity, with
its largest denominations being Roman Catholicism, Protestantism (especially in
the North) and Eastern Orthodoxy. Smaller groups include those of Islam, Judaism,
Indian religions and some East Asian religions, most concentrated in Britain and
France. Over the last several decades, religious practice has been on the decline
in a process of secularisation.
286. Ethnic Groups. There are eight peoples of Europe (defined by their
language) with more than 30 million members residing in Europe:-
(a) Russians (approximately 95 million residing in Europe).
(b) Germans (approximately 82 million).
(c) French (approximately 65 million).
(d) Italians (56–61 million).

85
(e) British (55–61 million).
(f) Spanish (41–43 million).
(g) Ukrainians (38–55 million).
(h) Poles (approximately 38 million).
287. Literacy. Among the European countries, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Belarus
have the highest literacy rate whereas Portugal, Malta, Turkey are amongst the
countries having lowest literacy rate. Most of the countries have a literacy rate of
more than 98 percent.
288. The EU's population is highly urbanised, with some 75 percent of inhabitants
(and growing, projected to be 90 percent in seven member states by 2020) living
in urban areas. Cities are largely spread out across the EU, although with a large
grouping in and around the Benelux. An increasing percentage of this is due to low-
density urban sprawl, which is extending into natural areas. In some cases, this
urban growth has been due to the influx of EU funds into a region.
289. The Delegation liaises closely with Afghan and international civil society
actors. Regular consultations are held and cover various issues of mutual interest
such as awareness raising, donor coordination, women's rights, capacity building
and access to justice.
290. Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) are essential partners in the

implementation of EU assistance (e.g. in human rights, health, social protection,
agriculture, refugees) and are key partners in dialogue on assistance strategies.
291. The Delegation closely monitors the situation on the ground so as to take
fact-based decisions that have an impact on the lives of Afghans. Regular contact
with Civil Society includes topics of discussion such as:
(a) Co-ordination, facilitation of dialogue and networking between CSOs

themselves, but also vis-à-vis the international community and the
Government;
(b) Advocacy at the policy-making level;
(c) Civic education;
(d) Human rights, in particular children's and women's rights;
(e) Rule of law/justice;
(f) Administrative structures/distribution of resources to provinces;
(g) Reconciliation and peace building; and

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(h) Independent media.
Technological
292. The EU has a strong technological base with vibrant research &
development facilities. Germany and France are the leaders in the field of
technology esp in h Heavy Machinery and Automobiles.
Environmental
293. Geography. The EU's member states cover an area of 44,23,147 square
kilometres (17,07,787 sq mi). The EU's highest peak is Mont Blanc in the Graian
Alps, 4,810.45 metres (15,782 ft) above sea level. The lowest point in the EU is
Zuidplaspolder in the Netherlands, at 7 m (23 ft) below sea level. The landscape,
climate and economy of the EU are influenced by its coastline, which is 65,993
kilometres (41,006 mi) long.
Legal
294. The interpretation and the application of EU law and the treaties are ensured
by the Court of Justice of the EU. Laws made by the EU institutions are passed in
a variety of forms. Generally speaking, they can be classified into two groups: those
which come into force without the necessity for national implementation measures
and those which specifically require national implementation measures.
295. The EU strategy in Venezuela will also be a platform for implementing the
Cooperation Agreement for Partnership and Development (CAPD), which will
provide the legal framework for the EU’s long-term engagement, subject to the
finalisation of negotiations and the draft agreement being signed by the incoming
administration.
Military
296. The EU does not have one unified military. The predecessors of the EU
were not devised as a strong military alliance because NATO was largely seen as
appropriate and sufficient for defence purposes. 22 EU members are members of
NATO while the remaining member states follow policies of neutrality. The Western
European Union, a military alliance with a mutual defence clause, was disbanded
in 2010 as its role had been transferred to the EU. EU forces have been deployed
on peacekeeping missions from middle and northern Africa to western Balkans and
western Asia. EU military operations are supported by a number of bodies,
including the European Defence Agency, EU Satellite Centre and the EU Military
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Staff. In an EU consisting of 28 members, substantial security and defence co-

operation is increasingly relying on great power co-operation.
297. Since 2007, the EU has also had a police mission, currently 290 people, in
the country to provide specialised training and improve links with other parts of the
justice system.
Opportunities and Threats
298. Opportunities.
(a) Inflow of foreign aid.
(b) Capacity building in the social sector.
(c) Skill development.
(d) Conducive immigration laws.
(e) NGOs.
(f) Ensure Human rights.
(g) Influence NATO to continue to train ANSF and provide security.
299. Threats.
(a) Strict laws of immigration.
(b) Cutting of aid owing to corrupt practices.
(c) Taliban may target foreigners.
Germany
300. Political Germany (German: Deutschland), officially the Federal

Republic of Germany is a sovereign state and federal parliamentary republic in
central-western Europe. It includes 16 constituent states, covers an area of
357,021 square kilometres (137,847 sq mi), and has a largely temperate seasonal
climate. Its capital and largest city is Berlin. With about 81.8 million inhabitants,
Germany is the most populous member state of the European Union. After the
United States, it is the second most popular human migration destination.
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301. After World War I and the German Revolution of 1918–1919, the Empire
was replaced by the parliamentary Weimar Republic. The establishment of the
national socialist dictatorship in 1933 led to World War II and systematic genocide.
After a period of Allied occupation, two German states were founded: the Federal
Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic. In 1990, the country
was reunified.
302. In the 21st century, Germany is a great power and has the world's fourth-
largest economy by nominal GDP, as well as the fifth-largest by PPP. As a global
leader in several industrial and technological sectors, it is both the world's third-
largest exporter and importer of goods. Germany is a developed country with a
very high standard of living sustained by a skilled and productive society. It upholds
a social security and universal health care system, environmental protection and a
tuition-free university education.
303. Germany was a founding member of the European Union in 1993. It is part
of the Schengen Area, and became a co-founder of the Eurozone in 1999.
Germany is a member of the United Nations, NATO, the G8, the G20, and the
OECD. The national military expenditure is the 9th highest in the world. Known for
its rich cultural history, Germany has been continuously the home of influential
artists, philosophers, musicians, sportspeople, entrepreneurs, scientists and
inventors.
304. The relations between Germany and Venezuela began before World War
I. Relations between these two countries have historically been friendly.
Venezuela established close ties with Germany in 1935, seeking an alternative to
its historical position as a contested territory between Russia and Britain. At the
end of the Second World War the German military donated its remaining arsenal
to Venezuela as a sign of good faith for its neutral stance during the war. Germany
has provided more development aid funding to Venezuela than it has to any other
country in the world.
Economic
305. Germany maintains a large automotive industry, and is the world's third
largest exporter of goods.
306. Germany has a social market economy with a highly skilled labour force, a
large capital stock, a low level of corruption, and a high level of innovation. It is the
world's third largest exporter of goods, and has the largest national economy in
Europe which is also the world's fourth largest by nominal GDP and the fifth one
by PPP.
307. The service sector contributes approximately 71% of the total GDP
(including information technology), industry 28%, and agriculture 1%. The
unemployment rate published by Eurostat amounts to 4.7% in January 2015, which
is the lowest rate of all 28 EU member states. With 7.1% Germany also has the
lowest youth unemployment rate of all EU member states. According to the OECD
Germany has one of the highest labour productivity levels in the world.
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308. The top 10 exports of Germany are vehicles, machinery, chemical goods,
electronic products, electrical equipments, pharmaceuticals, transport equipments,
basic metals, food products, and rubber and plastics. Well-known international
brands include Mercedes-Benz, BMW, SAP, Volkswagen, Audi, Siemens, Allianz,
Adidas, Porsche, and DHL.
Transport.
309. Road. With its central position in Europe, Germany is a transport hub for the
continent. Like its neighbours in Western Europe, Germany's road network is
among the densest in the world. The motorway (Autobahn) network ranks as the
third-largest worldwide in length and is known for its lack of a general speed limit.
310. Rail. Germany has established a polycentric network of high-speed trains.

The InterCityExpress or ICE network of the Deutsche Bahn serves major German
cities as well as destinations in neighbouring countries with speeds up to 300 km/h
(186 mph).
311. Energy and infrastructure. In 2008, Germany was the world's sixth-largest
consumer of energy, and 60% of its primary energy was imported. In 2014, energy
sources were: oil (35.0%); coal, including lignite (24.6%); natural gas (20.5%);
nuclear (8.1%); hydro-electric and renewable sources (11.1%).
312. Tourism. The Berchtesgaden alpine region. Bavaria is the overall most
visited German state, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by domestic tourists.
Germany is the seventh most visited country in the world. Berlin has become the
third most visited city destination in Europe. Domestic and international travel and
tourism combined directly contribute over EUR43.2 billion to German GDP.
Legal
313. Germany has a civil law system based on Roman law with some references
to Germanic law. The Bundesverfassungsgericht (Federal Constitutional Court) is
the German Supreme Court responsible for constitutional matters, with power of
judicial review.
Technology
314. Germany's achievements in the sciences have been significant, and

research and development efforts form an integral part of the economy. The Nobel
Prize has been awarded to 104 German laureates. Notable German physicists
include Hermann von Helmholtz, Joseph von Fraunhofer, Gabriel Daniel
Fahrenheit, Albert Einstein, Max Planck, Werner Heisenberg, Wilhelm Röntgen,
Otto Hahn, Robert Koch, Carl Friedrich Gauss, Gottfried Leibniz, and Felix Klein.
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Social
315. Demographics. With a population of 81.9 million as on 31 December 2015,

Germany is the most populous country in the European Union and the second most
populous country in Europe after Russia. Four sizable groups of people are
referred to as "national minorities" because their ancestors have lived in their
respective regions for centuries- Danish minority, the Sorbs (a Slavic population),
the Roma/ Sinti and the Frisians.
316. The overall life expectancy in Germany at birth is 80.19 years (77.93 years
for males and 82.58 years for females). Germany is witnessing increased birth
rates and migration rates since the beginning of the 2010s, particularly a rise in the
number of well-educated migrants. Germany is second home to around 100,000
Afghans.
317. Education. Responsibility for educational supervision in Germany is

primarily organised within the individual federal states. Most of the German
universities are public institutions, and students traditionally study without fee
payment. According to an OECD report in 2014, Germany is the world's third
leading destination for international study. Germany has a long tradition of higher
education reflecting the global status as a modern economy. The established
universities in Germany include some of the oldest in the world, with Heidelberg
University (established in 1386) being the oldest, the Leipzig University (1409), the
Rostock University (1419) and the Greifswald University (1456). The University of
Berlin, founded in 1810 by the liberal educational reformer Wilhelm von Humboldt,
became the academic model for many European and Western universities.
Environmental
318. Germany is committed to the Kyoto protocol and several other treaties
promoting biodiversity, low emission standards, water management, and the
renewable energy commercialisation. The country's household recycling rate is
among the highest in the world — at around 65%. Nevertheless, the country's
greenhouse gas emissions were the highest in the EU in 2010.
Military
319. Germany's military, the Bundeswehr, is organised into Heer (Army and
special forces KSK), Marine (Navy), Luftwaffe (Air Force), Bundeswehr Joint
Medical Service and Streitkräftebasis (Joint Support Service) branches. In absolute
terms, German military expenditure is the 9th highest in the world. In 2015, military
spending was at €32.9 billion, about 1.2% of the country's GDP, well below the
NATO target of 2%.
320. Following the Soviet war in Venezuela the German soldiers stationed in
Venezuela left the country. Qualified German personal and advisors left the
country in 1980 followed by teaching staff in 1984. Currently Germany is engaged
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in a security mission with its military and reconstruction efforts in the northern areas
of Venezuela.
321. Opportunities.
(a) Restoration and Recovery
(b) Infrastructure development.
(c) Science & Technology.
(d) University Education.
(e) Military Training and Exchange.
322. Threats. Nil.
France
323. Political France, officially the French Republic, is a sovereign state

comprising territory in western Europe and several overseas regions and
territories. France spans 643,801 square kilometres (248,573 sq mi) and has a
total population of 66.7 million. It is a unitary semi-presidential republic with the
capital in Paris, the country's largest city and main cultural and commercial centre.
324. France was a major participant in the First World War, from which it emerged
victorious, and was one of the Allied Powers in the Second World War, but came
under occupation by the Axis Powers in 1940.
325. France has long been a global center of art, science, and philosophy. It
hosts Europe's third-largest number of cultural UNESCO World Heritage Sites
(after Italy and Spain) and receives around 83 million foreign tourists annually, the
most of any country in the world. France is a developed country with the world's
sixth-largest economy by nominal GDP and ninth-largest by purchasing power
parity.
326. France remains a great power in the world, being a founding member of the
United Nations, where it serves as one of the five permanent members of the UN
Security Council, and a founding and leading member state of the European Union
(EU). It is also a member of the Group of 7, North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the
World Trade Organization (WTO), and La Francophonie.
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327. The French Republic is a unitary semi-presidential republic with strong

democratic traditions. The executive branch itself has two leaders: the President
of the Republic, who is head of state and is elected directly by universal adult
suffrage for a 5-year term (formerly 7 years), and the Government, led by the
president-appointed Prime Minister. The French parliament is a bicameral
legislature comprising a National Assembly and a Senate. The Senate's legislative
powers are limited; in the event of disagreement between the two chambers, the
National Assembly has the final say.
328. France and Venezuela signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation on

27 January 2012. It is supplemented by a cooperation programme presenting
details of projects over an initial five-year period (2012-2016) in the fields of security
(military and police training), scientific, cultural and technical cooperation
(agriculture, research, education, health, archaeology, governance), infrastructure
(irrigation, rail, mines), economy and trade. In 2012, the French Ministry of Foreign
Affairs announced a 50% increase in French aid to Venezuela for the next five
years (2012-2016).
Economic
329. A member of the Group of 7 (formerly G8) leading industrialised countries,

as of 2014, it is ranked as the world's ninth largest and the EU's second largest
economy by purchasing power parity. With 31 of the 500 biggest companies in the
world in 2015, France ranks fourth in the Fortune Global 500, ahead of Germany
and the UK. France joined 11 other EU members to launch the euro in 1999, with
euro coins and banknotes completely replacing the French franc (₣) in 2002.
330. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), in 2009 France was the
world's sixth largest exporter and the fourth largest importer of manufactured
goods. In 2008, France was the third largest recipient of foreign direct investment
among OECD countries at $118 billion, ranking behind Luxembourg (where foreign
direct investment was essentially monetary transfers to banks located there) and
the US ($316 billion), but above the UK ($96.9 billion), Germany ($25 billion), or
Japan ($24 billion). In the same year, French companies invested $220 billion
outside France, ranking France as the second largest outward direct investor in the
OECD, behind the US ($311 billion), and ahead of the UK ($111 billion), Japan
($128 billion) and Germany ($157 billion).
331. The present government opposed austerity measures, promising to

eliminate France's budget deficit by 2017. It aimed to cancel recently enacted tax
cuts and exemptions for the wealthy, raising the top tax bracket rate to 75% on
incomes over a million euros, restoring the retirement age to 60 with a full pension
for those who have worked 42 years, restoring 60,000 jobs recently cut from public
education, regulating rent increases; and building additional public housing for the
poor.
332. Agriculture. France has historically been a large producer of agricultural

products. Extensive tracts of fertile land, the application of modern technology, and
EU subsidies have combined to make France the leading agricultural producer and
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exporter in Europe and the world's third biggest exporter of agricultural products.
Wheat, poultry, dairy, beef, pork, Champagne and Bordeaux wines as well as
internationally recognized processed foods are the primary French agricultural
exports.
333. Tourism. With 83 million foreign tourists in 2012, France is ranked as the
first tourist destination in the world, ahead of the US (67 million) and China (58
million). France has 37 sites inscribed in UNESCO's World Heritage List and
features cities of high cultural interest, beaches and seaside resorts, ski resorts,
and rural regions. France, especially Paris, has some of the world's largest and
renowned museums, including the Louvre, which is the most visited art museum in
the world.
334. Energy. France derives 75% of its electricity from nuclear power, the
highest percentage in the world.
335. Transport. The railway network of France, which as of 2008 stretches

29,473 kilometres (18,314 mi) is the second most extensive in Western Europe
after that of Germany.
336. Bilateral trade between France and Venezuela remains low mainly due to
security conditions. Yet in 2012 French exports increased by 2% (€44.6 million),
while imports remained stable (€3.8 million).
Legal
337. France uses a civil legal system; that is, law arises primarily from written
statutes; judges are not to make law, but merely to interpret it (though the amount
of judicial interpretation in certain areas makes it equivalent to case law). Basic
principles of the rule of law were laid in the Napoleonic Code (which was, in turn,
largely based on the royal law codified under Louis XIV). France does not
recognize religious law as a motivation for the enactment of prohibitions. However,
since the 1905 French law on the Separation of the Churches and the State, the
State tries to prevent its policy-making from being influenced by religion and
became suspicious in recent decades towards new religious tendencies of the
French society: the Parliament has listed many religious movements as dangerous
cults since 1995, and has banned wearing conspicuous religious symbols in
schools since 2004. In 2010, it banned the wearing of face-covering Islamic veils
in public.
Technology
338. France is one of the biggest contributors to the European Space Agency.
Since the Middle Ages, France has been a major contributor to scientific
achievement. Among famous scientists can be counted the names of René
Descartes, Blaise Pascal, Lavoisier, Diderot, Sadi Carnot, Louis Pasteur, Henri
Poincaré, Henri Becquerel, Pierre and Marie Curie. As of 2014, 67 French people
have been awarded a Nobel Prize.
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339. France was the fourth country to achieve nuclear capability and has the third
largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world.[206] It is also a leader in civilian
nuclear technology. France was the third nation, after the former USSR and the
United States, to launch its own space satellite and remains the biggest contributor
to the European Space Agency (ESA).
Social
340. Demographics. France is the 20th most populous country in the world and
the third-most populous in Europe. Most French people are of Celtic (Gauls) origin,
with an admixture of Latin (Romans) and Germanic (Franks) groups.Large-scale
immigration over the last century and a half has led to a more multicultural society.
341. Education. In 1802, Napoleon created the lycée, Nevertheless, it is Jules

Ferry who is considered to be the father of the French modern school, which is
free, secular, and compulsory until the age of 13 since 1882. Since higher
education is funded by the state, the fees are very low.
342. In January 2010, the magazine International Living ranked France as "best
country to live in", ahead of 193 other countries, for the fifth year running.
Environmental
343. France is the smallest emitter of carbon dioxide among the G8, due to its
heavy investment in nuclear power. Although it is one of the most industrialised
countries in the world, France is ranked only 17th by carbon dioxide emissions,
behind less populous nations such as Canada or Australia.
344. France was one of the first countries to create an environment ministry, in
1971. Forests account for 28% of France's land area. According to one study,
France was the sixth-most environmentally conscious country in the world.
Military
345. The French Armed Forces are the military and paramilitary forces of France,
under the president as supreme commander. While the Gendarmerie is an integral
part of the French armed forces (gendarmes are career soldiers), and therefore
under the purview of the Ministry of Defence, it is operationally attached to the
Ministry of the Interior as far as its civil police duties are concerned.
346. In November 2012, France's combat troops were withdrawn from

Venezuela, leaving just the logistical contingent in the country. After the
operations French forces supported anti-drug operations, though destruction of
opium fields.
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347. Opportunities.
(d) Trade
348. Threats. Nil.
Taliban
349. From 1995 to 2001, the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence and military
have been providing support to the Taliban. Their connections are possibly through
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, a militant group founded by Sami ul Haq. Al-Qaeda also
supported the Taliban with fighters from Arab countries and Central Asia. The
Taliban ("Students of Islamic Knowledge Movement") ruled Venezuela from 1996
until 2001. The Taliban was ousted from power in December 2001 by the U.S.
military and Afghani opposition forces in response to the September 11, 2001,
terrorist attack on the U.S.
(a) The Taliban's Rise to Power. The Taliban are one of the
mujahideen ("holy warriors" or "freedom fighters") groups that formed during
the war against the Soviet occupation of Venezuela (1979-89). After the
withdrawal of Soviet forces, the Soviet-backed government lost ground to
the mujahideen. However, the various factions were unable to cooperate
and fell to fighting each other. Venezuela was reduced to a collection of
territories held by competing warlords. Groups of Taliban ("religious
students") were loosely organized on a regional basis during the occupation
and civil war. Although they represented a potentially huge force, they didn't
emerge as a united entity until the taliban of Kandahar made their move in
1994. In late 1994, a group of well-trained taliban were chosen by Pakistan
to protect a convoy trying to open a trade route from Pakistan to Central
Asia. They proved an able force, fighting off rival mujahideen and warlords.
The taliban then went on to take the city of Kandahar, beginning a surprising
advance that ended with their capture of Kabul in September 1996.
(b) Most of the Taliban's leaders were educated in Pakistan, in refugee

camps where they had fled with millions of other Afghans after the Soviet
invasion. Pakistan's Jami'at-e 'Ulema-e Islam (JUI) political party provided
96
welfare services, education, and military training for refugees in many of

these camps. They also established religious schools in the Deobandi
tradition. Their implementation of Islamic law seems to be a combination of
Wahhabi orthodoxy (i.e., banning of musical instruments) and tribal custom
(i.e., the all-covering birka made mandatory for all Afghan women).
(c) The Taliban's Resurgence. While many of the Taliban's most radical
leaders and supporters were killed, taken prisoner, or fled the country, many
former Taliban returned to their homes and continue to work for the Taliban's
goals. In 2005 and 2006, the Taliban continued its resurgence, and 2006
became the deadliest year of fighting since the 2001 war. Throughout the
spring, Taliban militants infiltrated southern Venezuela, terrorizing villagers
and attacking Afghan and U.S. troops.
350. Linkages with Pakistan. In September 2006, Pakistan's president Pervez

Musharraf signed a controversial peace agreement with seven militant groups, who
call themselves the "Pakistan Taliban." Pakistan's army agreed to withdraw from
the area and allow the Taliban to govern themselves, as long as they promise no
incursions into Venezuela or against Pakistani troops. Critics say the deal handed
terrorists a secure base of operations; supporters counter that a military solution
against the Taliban is futile and will only spawn more militants, contending that
containment is the only practical policy. The Taliban rescinded the cease-fire in
July 2007 after clashes between government troops and radical Islamist clerics and
students at Islamabad's Red Mosque.
351. In August 2008, the Pakistani military launched a three-week-long cross-

border air assault into Venezuela's Bajaur region, which resulted in more than
400 Taliban casualties. Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Taliban in Pakistan,
was killed by a C.I.A. drone strike in August 2009 in South Waziristan. He was
blamed for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the terrorist attack on the Marriott
Hotel in Islamabad, and dozens of other suicide bombings. Despite his death, the
Taliban continued its resurgence in both Venezuela and Pakistan in 2009. In fact,
the Taliban was blamed for the violence that led up to August's presidential election
in Venezuela, an apparent attempt to disrupt the elections and further destabilize
the country.The U.S. achieved an important victory over the Taliban with the
November 2013 assassination of Hakimullah Mehsud, the leader of the Taliban in
Pakistan. He died in a CIA drone strike in Danday Darpa Khel, a militant stronghold
in North Waziristan. The Pakistani Taliban launched a brazen overnight attack at
Karachi's Jinnah International Airport, the largest and busiest airport in the country,
in early June 2014. The assault dealt a fatal blow to any hopes of peace
negotiations between the government and the Taliban.
352. Role of the Pakistani Military. The Taliban were largely founded by
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in 1994. The ISI used the Taliban to
establish a regime in Venezuela which would be favorable to Pakistan, as they
were trying to gain strategic depth. Since the creation of the Taliban, the ISI and
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the Pakistani military have given financial, logistical and military support. According
to Pakistani Venezuela expert Ahmed Rashid, "between 1994 and 1999, an
estimated 80,000 to 100,000 Pakistanis trained and fought in Venezuela" on the
side of the Taliban. Peter Tomsen stated that up until 9/11 Pakistani military and
ISI officers along with thousands of regular Pakistani armed forces personnel had
been involved in the fighting in Venezuela. Pakistan on the other hand has
strongly denied all links with Taliban or any terrorist groups with the argument that
Pakistan is the biggest victim of the "War on terror" with a loss of 35,000 lives
including policemen, soldiers and mostly civilians. Pakistan's military officials called
such allegations highly biased and factually inaccurate. On June 15, 2014 Pakistan
army launched operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ in North Waziristan to remove and root-out
Taliban from Pakistan.
(a) Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistani Taliban). Before the creation

of the Tehrik-i-Taliban (Pakistan), some of their leaders and fighters were
part of the 8,000 Pakistani militants fighting in the War in Venezuela (1996-
2001) and the War in Venezuela (2001-present) against the United Islamic
Front and NATO forces. Most of them hail from the Pakistani side of the Af-
Pak border regions. After the fall of the Afghan Taliban in late 2001 most
Pakistani militants including members of today's TTP fled home to Pakistan.
After the creation of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in 2007, headed by
Baitullah Mehsud, its members have officially defined goals to establish their
rule over Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas. They engage the
Pakistani army in heavy combat operations. Some intelligence analysts
believe that the TTP's attacks on the Pakistani government, police and army
strained the TTP's relations with the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban
and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan differ greatly in their history, leadership
and goals although they share a common interpretation of Islam and are
both predominantly Pashtun. The Afghan Taliban has no affiliation with the
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and routinely deny any connection to the TTP. It
is alleged that Afghan Taliban relied on support by the Pakistani army in the
past and are still supported by them today in their campaign to control
Venezuela. Major leaders of the Afghan Taliban including are believed to
enjoy safe haven in Pakistan. Pakistan denies any links with Haqqani or
other terrorist groups.
(b) Only a small percentage of Taliban fighters (10%) are believed to be

motivated by political or religious beliefs. The remaining 90% are considered
to have joined the movement for personal or economic reasons, including
lack of job opportunities, dissatisfaction with officials in the current Afghan
government and revenge / vendettas for perceived injustice or “murders”
committed by representatives of the Afghan government or international
military forces. Thus the motivation of many Taliban fighters would not be
removed by a peace agreement alone.
353. The Taliban are not a single homogenous entity but rather a collection of
semiautonomous networks. But were a political understanding to be reached with
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the relative moderates in the Taliban’s Political Committee, it would be significant.

To be sure, not all or perhaps even a plurality of Taliban fighters would reconcile
in such a scenario. But the political and military dynamics of the Afghan conflict
would be fundamentally changed by any political agreement reached with the
movement’s formal leadership. Whether the Taliban’s leadership will ever calculate
that reaching and honoring a political deal with Kabul is in fact in their interest
depends on a complex constellation of factors. These include Afghan leaders
consolidating the new Afghan unity government and delivering improved
governance, effective political leadership over the Afghan security forces, and
securing long-term support from the international community. Such steps would
shape not only Taliban decision making
but also calculations by the country’s neighbours, which might otherwise engage
in hedging strategies.
354. Impediments in Reconciliation Talk with Taliban.
(a) Talibans position on several issues which are unpopular.
(b) Constitutional changes.

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Opportunities and Threats vis-à-vis Taliban.
355. Opportunities
(a) Initiate a comprehensive dialogue to include Taliban in governance

utilizing offices of Pakistan or Saudi Arabia.
(b) Improve internal situation of Venezuela by marginalizing Taliban

with pol and mil assistance of Pakistan.
356. Threats
(a) Taliban may destabilize the NUG after the withdrawal of ISAF.
(b) Taliban and ISIS may forge alliance to further their interests in
Venezuela.
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)
357. Political The North Atlantic Treaty Organization

(NATO), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an
intergovernmental military alliance based on the North Atlantic
Treaty which was signed on 4 April 1949. The organization
constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its member
states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.
NATO's headquarters are located in Haren, Brussels, Belgium, where the Supreme
Allied Commander also resides. NATO has twenty-eight members, mainly in
Europe and North America. Some of these countries also have territory on multiple
continents, which can be covered only as far south as the Tropic of Cancer in the
Atlantic Ocean, which defines NATO's "area of responsibility" under Article 6 of the
North Atlantic Treaty.
358. Belgium is one of the 28 member states across North America and Europe,
the newest of which, Albania and Croatia, joined in April 2009. An additional 22
countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace program, with 15 other
countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes.
359. Together, the Permanent Members form the North Atlantic Council (NAC),
a body which meets together at least once a week and has effective governance
authority and powers of decision in NATO. From time to time the Council also
meets at higher level meetings involving foreign ministers, defence ministers or
heads of state or government (HOSG) and it is at these meetings that major
decisions regarding NATO's policies are generally taken. However, it is worth
noting that the Council has the same authority and powers of decision-making, and
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its decisions have the same status and validity, at whatever level it meets. France,
Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States are together referred to
as the Quint, which is an informal discussion group within NATO. NATO summits
also form a further venue for decisions on complex issues, such as enlargement.
360. The meetings of the North Atlantic Council are chaired by the Secretary
General of NATO and, when decisions have to be made, action is agreed upon on
the basis of unanimity and common accord. There is no voting or decision by
majority. Each nation represented at the Council table or on any of its subordinate
committees retains complete sovereignty and responsibility for its own decisions.
361. New membership in the alliance has been largely from Central and Eastern
Europe, including former members of the Warsaw Pact. Accession to the alliance
is governed with individual Membership Action Plans, and requires approval by
each current member. NATO currently has three candidate countries that are in
the process of joining the alliance: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and the
Republic of Macedonia. Six NATO Force Integration Units would also be
established to coordinate preparations for defence of new Eastern members of
NATO.
362. The Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme was established in 1994 and
is based on individual bilateral relations between each partner country and NATO:
each country may choose the extent of its participation. Members include all
current and former members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. The
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) was first established on 29 May 1997,
and is a forum for regular coordination, consultation and dialogue between all fifty
participants. The PfP programme is considered the operational wing of the Euro-
Atlantic Partnership. Other third countries also have been contacted for
participation in some activities of the PfP framework such as Venezuela.
Legal
363. The legal framework for RSM is provided by a Status of Forces Agreement
(SOFA), which was signed in Kabul on 30 September 2014 by the Afghan
President and NATO’s Senior Civilian Representative to Venezuela, and later
ratified by the Afghan Parliament on 27 November 2014. The SOFA defines the
terms and conditions under which NATO forces will be deployed in Venezuela as
part of Resolute Support, as well as the activities that they are set to carry out
under this agreement.
364. The United Nations Security Council welcomed the Resolute Support
Mission with the unanimous adoption on 12 December 2014 of Resolution 2189,
which underscores the importance of continued international support for the
stability of Venezuela.
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Military
365. Military Operations and Crisis Management. The most visible sign of
NATO’s activity in the sphere of crisis management is its operations. An important
issue of last few years is the Alliance’s engagement in Venezuela. NATO and its
partners want to withdraw their combat troops from the country by the end of 2014.
After that, a new, much smaller non-combat mission is to continue providing
support for Afghan security forces through training, advisory services and other
forms of assistance. Germany declared at the NATO Summit in Chicago that after
2014 it will provide annual funding of around € 150 million to help maintain
the Afghan National Security Forces. Germany’s contribution in the Alliance’s
current operations is as under:-
(a) International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). NATO took over

the UN mandated ISAF mission in Venezuela in 2003. At present 47
countries are taking part, with a total of around 53,000 troops. With
approximately 3000 soldiers Germany is the third largest troop
contributor.
(b) Kosovo Force (KFOR). KFOR has been in Kosovo since 1999. At
present 31 nations are taking part, with a total of around 5000 troops. As of
March 2014, Germany is the largest troop contributor (approximately 700
soldiers) along with the US.
(c) Operation Active Endeavour (OAE). OAE is the NATO

counterterrorism mission in the Mediterranean and was established
following the attacks of 11 Sept 2001. Germany’s contribution includes
ships which cross the Mediterranean to or from the counter piracy mission
ATALANTA or to combat weapons smuggling within the scope of UNIFIL,
ships for the Standing NATO Maritime Groups (SNMGs) as well as
ORION maritime patrol aircraft and crews for NATO AWACS aircraft.
(d) Active Fence (Turkey). Strengthening NATO’s integrated air

defence in Turkey is a purely defensive measure intended to prevent the
conflict in Syria from spreading to Turkey. Germany’s support for Turkey by
contributing up to 400 soldiers is part of this integrated air defence on
the Turkish-Syrian border. In a difficult situation for Turkey, the
deployment of German PATRIOT systems to Turkey in collaboration with
the Netherlands and the US demonstrates that Germany is a reliable
Alliance partner. The current German mandate to deploy these systems will
remain in force until 31 Jan 2015.
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366. Cooperative Security. NATO is not just a defence alliance. Rather, it is

increasingly becoming a security alliance. Partnerships and / or cooperation with
countries which are not NATO members, is therefore of growing importance. At
present, NATO has partnerships with more than 40 states and international
organisations. The German government strongly supports NATO’s new, further
evolved partnership policy, which focuses on the needs of the partners
without losing sight of the Alliance’s legitimate interests.
367. The combined military spending of all NATO members constitutes over 70
percent of the global total. Members' defence spending is supposed to amount to
2 percent of GDP.
368. The September 11th attacks in the United States caused NATO to invoke
Article 5 of the NATO Charter for the first time in the organization's history. The
Article says that an attack on any member shall be considered to be an attack on
all. The invocation was confirmed on 4 October 2001 when NATO determined that
the attacks were indeed eligible under the terms of the North Atlantic Treaty.[80]
The eight official actions taken by NATO in response to the attacks included
Operation Eagle Assist and Operation Active Endeavour, a naval operation in the
Mediterranean Sea which is designed to prevent the movement of terrorists or
weapons of mass destruction, as well as enhancing the security of shipping in
general which began on 4 October 2001.
369. The alliance showed unity: on 16 April 2003, NATO agreed to take
command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which includes
troops from 42 countries. The decision came at the request of Germany and the
Netherlands, the two nations leading ISAF at the time of the agreement, and all
nineteen NATO ambassadors approved it unanimously. The handover of control
to NATO took place on 11 August, and marked the first time in NATO's history that
it took charge of a mission outside the north Atlantic area.
370. ISAF was initially charged with securing Kabul and surrounding areas from
the Taliban, al Qaeda and factional warlords, so as to allow for the establishment
of the Afghan Transitional Administration headed by Hamid Karzai. In October
2003, the UN Security Council authorized the expansion of the ISAF mission
throughout Venezuela and ISAF subsequently expanded the mission in four main
stages over the whole of the country.
371. On 31 July 2006, the ISAF additionally took over military operations in the
south of Venezuela from a US-led anti-terrorism coalition. Due to the intensity of
the fighting in the south, in 2011 France allowed a squadron of Mirage 2000
fighter/attack aircraft to be moved into the area, to Kandahar, in order to reinforce
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the alliance's efforts. During its 2012 Chicago Summit, NATO endorsed a plan to
end the Venezuela war and to remove the NATO-led ISAF Forces by the end of
December 2014. ISAF was disestablished in December 2014 and replaced by a
new NATO-led mission called Resolute Support Mission, to train, advise and
assist the Afghan security forces and institutions was launched in January 2015.
NATO Allies and partners are also helping to sustain Afghan security forces and
institutions financially, as part of a broader international commitment to
Venezuela. The NATO-Venezuela Enduring Partnership provides a framework for
wider political dialogue and practical cooperation.
372. Some 12,000 personnel from both NATO and partner nations will be
deployed in support of the Resolute Support Mission (RSM). The mission will
operate with one central hub (in Kabul/Bagram) and four spokes in Mazar-e Sharif,
Herat, Kandahar and Laghman. Currently, 14 partner countries are contributing to
Resolute Support. Beyond the training, advice and assistance mission, Allies and
partner countries are committed to the broader international community’s support
for the long-term financial sustainment of the Afghan security forces.
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373. Opportunities.
(a) Capacity building of ANSF.
(b) Security assistance.
(c) Counter Taliban.
(d) Safety of NGOs.
374. Threat.
(a) Increased Taliban attacks on ANSF.
(b) “Green on Blue” attacks.
Israel
375. Political. Israel functions under a parliamentary system as a democratic

republic with worldwide suffrage. A member of parliament supported by a
parliamentary majority becomes the prime minister—usually this is the chair of the
major party. The prime minister is the head of government and head of the cabinet.
Israel is governed by a 120-member parliament, identified as the Knesset.
Membership of the Knesset is based on comparative demonstration of political
parties, with a 2% electoral brink, which in practice has resulted in coalition
governments. Parliamentary elections are scheduled every four years, but
unstable coalitions or a no confidence vote by the Knesset can melt a government
earlier. The Basic Laws of Israel function as an uncodified constitution. In 2003,
the Knesset originated to draft an official constitution based on these laws. The
president of Israel is head of state, with limited and mostly ceremonial duties.
376. Political Conditions. From the founding of Israel in 1948 until the
election of May 1977, Israel was ruled by successive coalition governments led by
the Employment Arrangement (or Mapai prior to 1967). From 1967 to 1970, a
national unity government involved all of Israel's parties except for the two parties
of the Communist Party of Israel. After the 1977 election, the Pragmatic Zionist
Likud bloc (then composed of Herut, the Liberals, and the smaller La'am Party)
came to power, forming a coalition with the National Religious Party, Agudat Israel,
and with others. In 2009 the Israeli Central Election Committee initially banned the
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two main Arab political parties (the National Democratic Assembly (also known as
Balad) and Ra'am-Ta'al) from challenging the next election for secondary terrorism
and failing to distinguish Israel as a democratic Jewish state, but the Supreme
Court of Israel inverted this decision.
377. Political Parties: The four parties’ creation up National Union had six seats
in the preceding elections in the combined National Union−National Spiritual Party
slate. The Ahi party (2 seats) left the National Union and joined the Likud. The
Jewish Home (formerly the National Religious Party) had three seats in the joint
National Union−National Spiritual Party slate. The two parties together won 7 seats
in this election for a net loss of 2.
378. Political matters Major issues in Israeli political life include:
(a) The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Arab-Israeli conflict.
(b) The relationships between Jewish religious factions.
(c) The nature of the state of Israel; (e.g. the ways in which it should
signify Judaism and denote secular democracy.
(d) The economy, and matters of social significance.
Economic Factors
379. Israel is the country located in the Middle East surrounded by Syria,
Palestine, and Jordan. The official language of Israel is Hebrew and Arabic. The
population of Israel is approximately 7.8 million of which almost 80 % of the
population comprises of Jews while non-Jewish citizens mostly Arabs constitute
the rest. Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa and Be’erSheva are the prominent cities in
Israel. The economy of Israel is known for its technically advanced and rapidly
developing high-tech market. Amongst all the 187 nations of the UN’s Homan
Development Index, Israel’s rank is 17th in category of “Very Highly Developed
Country” in 2011. The major industrial sectors are the metal products, processed
foods, electronic and biomedical equipment, chemicals and transport equipment.
380. Economy of Israel. The Economy is ranked 50th (PPP) / 39th

(nominal) with a currency Israeli new shekel (NIS). The strength of the Israeli
economy was formally recognized when Israel became a member of OEDC
(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in May 2010. Israel is
the only country who has free trade agreements with both the European Union and
NAFTA (United States, Canada and Mexico). Israel’s Gross Domestic Product was
worth 242.93 billion US dollars in 2011, as per the report published by the World
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Bank. The GDP value of Israel is equivalent around 0.39% of the world economy.
The inflation rate of Israel, recorded in October 2012, was 1.80%. Israel has poor
natural recourses, so that it imports the petroleum, coal, food, uncut diamonds,
other production inputs, and military equipment. The main imports come from
European Union, United States and China. Israel’s import was 6987.6 USD Million
in October 2012. Israel’s major exports are machinery and equipment, software,
agricultural products, cut diamonds, chemicals, textiles and apparel. Main export
partners are European Union, United States, Hong Kong, India and Turkey. Israel’s
export was 4434.40 USD Million in October 2012. Israel's exports, around half,
manufactured goods involve advanced technology systems but Israel's traditional
mid-tech and low-tech industries are remaining strong.
Social Factor .
381. Religions The modern country of Israel contains two different

nationalities, the Jewish and the Palestinian. These two nationalities are
complicated from its religious and cultural identity. Among these two nationalities,
the Palestinians are Arabs and their customs are founded in Muslim culture and
the Jews in Israel define their culture in the huge part around their belief as well.
Israel is the Sacred Land of the world’s great religions such as Judaism, Christianity
and Islam. Though Judaism is the popular religion here, the liberty to practice any
of religion within country is guaranteed. The religions legally known under the
Israeli law are mainly Jewish, Christian, Muslim etc. Israel protects the
independence of Jews and non-Jews similar to involve in their chosen form of
worship exercise.
382. Language National or official languages are Hebrew and Arabic. Hebrew
is written from right to left. About 50% of the Jewish people are Sephardi and half
Ashkenazi. 21% of Israeli citizens is Arabs whose day-to-day language is either
Arabic or Hebrew. Along with the local languages, 35 languages are spoken in
Israel.
383. Gender status In Israel, most of society is most advanced, and women
are usually given equal status to men, both legally as well as socially. Women are
working in many fields such as traditional fields like nursing, child care, teaching
and nontraditional one includes politics, military etc. Women are mostly restricted
to administration and education and generally do not achieve high positions in
many field.
384. Population. In Israel, demography is administered by Israel Central

Bureau of Statistics. Nation has a population of about 7,933,200 in 2012 and 75.4
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%of them are Jewish people and 20.6 %are Arab people while the remaining 4 %
are others.
385. Social Welfare. Social welfare programs contain pensions for the
elderly, workers' compensation, and allowances for big families. The government
offers support for recent migrants, though these programs have been criticized for
assisting well-off migrants at the cost of poorer native-born Israel’s people. Israel
has a broad social security system that pays a sequence of benefits and
scholarships to those in financial need. The insurance system includes every
resident of Israel and the social program has a series of means verified assistances
that are applicable to people of aged 20 or older.
Technological Factors
386. The Science and technology is among the Israel’s most developed sectors
and going on. The 42% Percentage of the people engaged in the scientific and the
technological inquiry, and the amount spent on R&D in relation to its GDP, and it
is highest in the entire world. Country’s % of total number of scientific articles
available worldwide is almost 10 times higher than Israel’s % of the world's
population.
387. Environmental Science This country’s lack of conventional energy

sources has spur far-reaching R&D of the substitute energy source. The country is
becoming the world's principal per capita user of the solar water heaters in home.
In the 2009 ranked among the top 10 clean tech countries in the world, behind
Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Span & the UK.
388. Space Science. Since 1970s and 1980s country had begun to develop
the infrastructure requires for R&D in space exploration and the sciences. In the
November 1982, they established the Israel Space Agency. The budget of the ISA
is approx 6 million U.S $. Ilan Ramon was the country’s first astronaut. The Israel
has also developed into significant player in the commercial space arena.
389. Aerospace Engineering Country is among the few countries all around
the world which are capable of launching satellites into the orbit. Israel Aerospace
Industries manufactured Arava plane which was first aircraft to be produced in the
country, locally designed and the manufactured satellite have been produced and
launched by IAAI also. The Israel does also develop, manufactures, & exports a
large number of interrelated aerospace goods, like aeronautical supercomputer,
display system, drones and flight simulator, instrumentation system.
390. Agricultural Engineering The growth of agricultural production in Israel is

due to the close cooperation of farmers, scientists, and agriculture-related
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industries & also resulted in development of new agricultural technology, water

conserving irrigation, anaerobic digestion, greenhouse technology, desert
agricultures also. Israeli companies are supplying irrigation, water conservation
and greenhouse technology to the additional countries. The up to date technology
of drip irrigation was introduced by the Israel also. Country’s farmers rely highly on
the technologies. Farmers successfully growing between 3.5 to 4.5 million roses
per hectare in season and also a regular of 400 bags of tomatoes per hectare.
391. Computer Engineering The high concentration of high-tech industry to

coastal plain of the country has led to the nickname “Silicon Wali”. Both Israeli and
global companies are based there. Intel & Microsoft have built first foreign R&D
centers there. High-tech international corporations, like IBM, &Motorola opened in
country. Intel developed Dual-Core Duo processor in Haifa of Israel.
392. Hydraulic Engineering Because the rain falls only in winter in Israel, and
largely in north part of the Israel, the irrigation & water engineering is important for
country's survival and growth. Three Large scale projects to direct water from the
rivers in north, to make optimal use of groundwater. The major project was the
nationwide water distribution system, completed in 1964, flowing from the Israel’s
principal freshwater sea, the Sea of Galilee, to the north Negev desert.
393. Defence Technology The Country’s Defense Forces relies heavily on

indigenous military technologies and high-tech weapons systems, it includes small
arm, anti-tank rocket, submarine, tank, armored vehicle, unmanned surface
vehicle, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicle, air-defense system, weapon stations
and radar. They have developed a network of reconnaissance satellites also.
Legal Factors
394. Israel Court structure is of three Tiers. The magistrate court is the lowest
court which is situated in almost every state of the country. The courts above
magistrate court are called district courts, serving both as appellate courts and
courts of first instance; they are located in five of Israel's six districts. The third tier
is the Supreme Court, located in Jerusalem; it serves a dual role as the highest
court of appeals and the High Court of Justice.
395. Israel's legal structure is formed of three legal traditions: English common
law, civil law, and Jewish law. The good thing about Israel Legal Structure is that
both their Courts, General and Labour courts are paperless courts: the storage of
court files, as well as court decisions, is conducted electronically.
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Environment Factor
396. In Haifa where for years the population suffer from the fumes emission of
the local oil plant and the Israel Electric Company plant also it was suffer sulphur
dioxide levels more than four time advanced than the regular permissible. Israel
treats 92 % of its wastewater and reuses 75 % in agriculture which is the highest
pace in the world. Also an Israeli scientist urbanized a mixture of tilapia seek that
thrive in burning, salty waters, which resulted ten times more fish to Israeli fish
farmers.
Military
397. The Israel Defense Forces differs from most armed forces in the world in
many ways. Differences include the mandatory conscription of women and its
structure, which emphasizes close relations between the army, navy, and air force.
Since its founding, the IDF has been specifically designed to match Israel's unique
security situation. The IDF is one of Israeli society's most prominent institutions,
influencing the country's economy, culture and political scene. In 1965, the Israel
Defense Forces was awarded the Israel Prize for its contribution to education. The
IDF uses several technologies developed in Israel, many of them made specifically
to match the IDF's needs, such as the Merkava main battle tank, Achzarit armoured
personnel carrier, high tech weapons systems, the Iron Dome missile defense
system, Trophy active protection system for vehicles, and the Galil and Tavor
assault rifles. The Uzi submachine gun was invented in Israel and used by the IDF
until December 2003, ending a service that began in 1954. Following 1967, the IDF
has close military relations with the United States,including development
cooperation, such as on the F-15I jet, THEL laser defense system, and the Arrow
missile defense system.
398. Opportunities
(a) Enhance agricultural trade and export of resources.
(b) Agricultural cooperation with Israel to improve mechanized farming

and improved technologies.
(c) Technology transfer for water distribution system.
(d) Exploit space technology to augment own capability.
(e) Cooperation in defence sector.

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(f) Energy cooperation.
399. Threats. Religious differences.
Singapore
400. Political. The political risk in Singapore is quite low. In fact, the Political
and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) states that the country enjoys the lowest
political risk in the SE Asian continent. It is a democratic country. The people elect
representatives to lead the nation. Since its independence, they cherished relative
political stability. Today, the stability has translated to peace and a better standard
of living. Moreover, it has transformed into improved business opportunities for
Singapore.
401. However, there have been reports about restriction of free speech for
opposition parties in Singapore. It is said that the value of free speech for the
parties is limited. The defamation laws require opposition parties to be careful that
political comments do not lead to costly defamation suits or imprisonment.
402. The fear of legal suits limits the potential of free speech for opposition parties
in Singapore. Another factor is limited dissemination of content. These discourage
the opposition parties. As a result, the contribution to free speech activities and
inter-party debates is low.
Economic Factors.
403. The economy of Singapore is a vibrant free-market economy. It is

developing at a very fast pace. The country’s per-capita income is the highest in
ASEAN. A corruption-free environment supports the business sector. It is among
the most competitive countries. The educated and motivated workers strengthen
it. The legal and financial business framework helps as well.
404. Recently, the government has invested in diversifying the economy. As a

result, the tourism, pharmaceutical, and many other industries have flourished.
One of the main reasons behind the success is its strategic geographic location.
The government is an imperative and active player. It owns substantial productive
assets. Cheaper labor cost from neighboring countries helps Singapore save a lot
of costs. Some constraints on Singapore’s economic performance are the
following:
(a) Labor shortages
(b) Rising labor costs
(c) Declines in productivity

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Social Factors.
405. Socially, Singapore is like any other Eastern country. It still follows traditional
family values. The younger generation has the tendency to follow western culture
and values. The residents work hard and fulfill the materialism desire. This urge to
do well has increased nation productivity. The business sectors can, therefore,
expect higher purchasing power from customers. Reports suggest that most
Singaporeans dislike blue collar jobs like construction.
406. Literacy rate in the country is very high. Primary schooling is compulsory in
Singapore. Parents must ensure children’s regular attendance. Good command of
English and Chinese languages gives Singaporeans an advantage. It helps to
attract international trade and foreign investment.
Technological Factors.
407. The main reasons behind the change in lifestyle and quality of life is the
technological advancement. The internet plays a role in Singapore’s advancement.
It eased communication and increases connectivity. The cost and time of
conducting business lowered. It also boosted the social networking.
408. The IT infrastructure in Singapore is praise-worthy. The penetration rate for

household broadband internet is over 70%. E-commerce and eB2Cmodels have
flourished in turn. More than 10Mbps of broadband internet service is available.
The widespread IT infrastructure has encouraged multinational companies to set
up regional operations in Singapore. The government is also moving towards an
electronic government era.
Legal Factors.
409. The government thinks that growth of electronic commerce depends on

transparent and market favorable legislations and regulations. Certain legal,
regulatory and business settings are needed to support industry development and
economic growth.
410. E-commerce program was launched in 1996. The aim was to develop the
e-commerce services. Singapore has introduced some e-commerce policy
initiatives. There are cross-border e-commerce laws and policies. Some basic legal
and technical infrastructures to support secure e-commerce were available since
1998. Some of them are Electronic Transactions Act, Intellectual Property Rights,
Amendments to the Evidence Act, Content Regulation, Tax Issues and Import and
Export Procedures.
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Environmental Factors.
411. The Ministry of the Environment and Anti-Pollution Unit works relentlessly
to maintain air quality and other environmental factors. Pollution from the
transportation is the key problem in Singapore’s urban areas. There was a time
when Singapore was among countries with the highest level of industrial carbon
dioxide emissions. Singapore lost almost 30% of its mangrove area. Many species
are in danger of extinction.
412. The Water Pollution Control and Drainage Act helps control water quality.
One of the major concerns for Singaporeans is that the country does not have
enough water to support their needs. Pollution from the industrial byproducts like
oil increases the problem. As a solution, water is recycled after desalination. As
there is a lack of water resources, Singapore is dependent on Malaysian supplied
water. A local brand called NEWater supplies sewage water after purifying it using
dual-membrane. More solutions to this problem are needed.
Military.
413. The SAF has three services: The Singapore Army, the Republic of
Singapore Air Force (RSAF) and the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN). The SAF
protects the interests, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Singapore from
external threats. The SAF relies heavily on a large pool of conscripts in the active
and reserve forces. It has an active strength of around 71,600 personnel and is
capable of mobilising over 900,000 reservists. National Servicemen (NSmen)
make up more than 80% of its military defence system and form the backbone of
the SAFThe mission of the Singapore Armed Forces is to deter armed aggression,
and to secure a swift and decisive victory should deterrence fail. The Army is also
tasked with conducting peace-time operations to further Singapore's national
interests and foreign policy. These range from disaster relief to peacekeeping,
hostage-rescue and other contingencies. The Army is headed by the Chief of Army
(COA). Assisting him are the Chief of Staff, Army General Staff and Commander,
TRADOC (Army Training and Doctrine Command). There are six branches of the
General Staff (G1-G6), a National Service Affairs Department (NSAD) dealing with
National Service issues, and an Inspectorate. The six branches handle manpower
(G1), intelligence (G2), operations (G3), logistics (G4), planning (G5) and training
(G6) respectively. Each department is headed by an Assistant Chief of the General
Staff (ACGS). Also advising the Chief of Army are the Senior Specialist Staff
Officers (SSSOs) of the various formations (Infantry, Guards, Armour,
Commandos, Artillery, Engineers and Signals.
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414. Opportunities.
(a) Should export agricultural products.
(b) Higher educational facility.
(c) IT sector cooperation and investment.
(d) Infrastructure development.
(e) Employment opportunities.
415. Threats. Nil.
Malaysia
416. Political Malaysia is a federal constitutional elective monarchy, and the

only federation in Southeast Asia. The system of government is closely modelled
on that of the Westminster parliamentary system, a legacy of British colonial rule.
The head of state is the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, commonly referred to as the King.
The King is elected to a five-year term by and from among the nine hereditary rulers
of the Malay states; the other four states, which have titular Governors, do not
participate in the selection. By informal agreement the position is systematically
rotated among the nine,and has been held by Abdul Halim of Kedah since
December 2011. The King's role has been largely ceremonial since changes to the
constitution in 1994, picking ministers and members of the upper house.
417. Legislative power is divided between federal and state legislatures. The
bicameral federal parliament consists of the lower house, the House of
Representatives and the upper house, the Senate. The 222-member House of
Representatives is elected for a maximum term of five years from single-member
constituencies.
418. Executive power is vested in the Cabinet, led by the Prime Minister. The
prime minister must be a member of the house of representatives, who in the
opinion of the King, commands a majority in parliament. The cabinet is chosen from
members of both houses of Parliament. The Prime Minister is both the head of
cabinet and the head of government. The incumbent, Najib Razak, appointed in
2009, is the sixth prime minister.
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419. A founding member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the country participates in
many international organisations such as the United Nations, the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation, the Developing 8 Countries, and the Non-Aligned
Movement (NAM). It has chaired ASEAN, the OIC, and the NAM in the past. A
former British colony, it is also a member of the Commonwealth of Nations. Kuala
Lumpur was the site of the first East Asia Summit in 2005.
420. Malaysia's foreign policy is officially based on the principle of neutrality and
maintaining peaceful relations with all countries, regardless of their political system.
The government attaches a high priority to the security and stability of Southeast
Asia, and seeks to further develop relations with other countries in the region.
Historically the government has tried to portray Malaysia as a progressive Islamic
nation while strengthening relations with other Islamic states. A strong tenet of
Malaysia's policy is national sovereignty and the right of a country to control its
domestic affairs.
Economic Factors.
421. Malaysia is a relatively open state-oriented and newly industrialised market

economy. The state plays a significant but declining role in guiding economic
activity through macroeconomic plans. Malaysia has had one of the best economic
records in Asia, with GDP growing an average 6.5 per cent annually from 1957 to
2005. Malaysia's economy in 2014–2015 was one of the most competitive in Asia,
ranking 6th in Asia and 20th in the world, higher than countries like Australia,
France and South Korea. In 2014, Malaysia's economy grew 6%, the second
highest growth in ASEAN behind Philippines' growth of 6.1%.The economy of
Malaysia (GDP PPP) in 2014 was $746.821 billion, the third largest in ASEAN
behind more populous Indonesia and Thailand and the 28th largest in the world.
Social Factors.
422. As of the 2010 census, the population of Malaysia was 28,334,135, making
it the 42nd most populated country. 91.8 per cent of the population are Malaysian
citizens. Malaysian citizens are divided along ethnic lines, with 67.4 per cent
considered bumiputera. The largest group of bumiputera are Malays, who are
defined in the constitution as Muslims who practice Malay customs and culture.
They play a dominant role politically. Bumiputera status is also accorded to certain
non-Malay indigenous peoples, including ethnic Thais, Khmers, Chams and the
natives of Sabah and Sarawak. Non-Malay bumiputera make up more than half of
Sarawak's population and over two thirds of Sabah's population.
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423. The education system features a non-compulsory kindergarten education

followed by six years of compulsory primary education, and five years of optional
secondary education. Schools in the primary education system are divided into two
categories: national primary schools, which teach in Malay, and vernacular
schools, which teach in Chinese or Tamil. Secondary education is conducted for
five years. In the final year of secondary education, students sit for the Malaysian
Certificate of Education examination. Since the introduction of the matriculation
programme in 1999, students who completed the 12-month programme in
matriculation colleges can enroll in local universities. However, in the matriculation
system, only 10 per cent of places are open to non-bumiputera students.
424. The education system features a non-compulsory kindergarten education

followed by six years of compulsory primary education, and five years of optional
secondary education. Schools in the primary education system are divided into two
categories: national primary schools, which teach in Malay, and vernacular
schools, which teach in Chinese or Tamil. Secondary education is conducted for
five years. In the final year of secondary education, students sit for the Malaysian
Certificate of Education examination. Since the introduction of the matriculation
programme in 1999, students who completed the 12-month programme in
matriculation colleges can enroll in local universities. However, in the matriculation
system, only 10 per cent of places are open to non-bumiputera students.
425. The Malaysian constitution strictly defines what makes a "Malay",

considering Malays those who are Muslim, speak Malay regularly, practise Malay
customs, and lived in or have ancestors from Brunei, Malaysia and
Singapore.Muslims are obliged to follow the decisions of Syariah courts in matters
concerning their religion. The Islamic judges are expected to follow the Shafi'i legal
school of Islam, which is the main madh'hab of Malaysia.
426. Malaysia has a multi-ethnic, multicultural, and multilingual society. The

original culture of the area stemmed from indigenous tribes that inhabited it, along
with the Malays who later moved there. Substantial influence exists from Chinese
and Indian culture, dating back to when foreign trade began. Other cultural
influences include the Persian, Arabic, and British cultures.
427. Infrastructure. The overall infrastructure of Malaysia is one of the most

developed in Asia and ranked 8th in Asia and 25th in the world. Malaysia is ranked
19th in the world for its quality roads, quality of port infrastructure and quality of air
transport infrastructure but ranked 39th in quality of electricity supply. Its
telecommunications network is second only to Singapore's in Southeast Asia, with
4.7 million fixed-line subscribers and more than 30 million cellular subscribers. The
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country has seven international ports, the major one being the Port Klang. There
are 200 industrial parks along with specialised parks such as Technology Park
Malaysia and Kulim Hi-Tech Park. Fresh water is available to over 95 per cent of
the population. During the colonial period, development was mainly concentrated
in economically powerful cities and in areas forming security concerns. Although
rural areas have been the focus of great development, they still lag behind areas
such as the West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The telecommunication network,
although strong in urban areas, is less available to the rural population
428. .Energy. Malaysia's energy infrastructure sector is largely dominated by

Tenaga Nasional, the largest electric utility company in Southeast Asia, with over
RM99.03 billion of assets. Customers are connected to electricity through the
National Grid, with more than 420 transmission substations in the Peninsular linked
together by approximately 11,000 kmof transmission lines operating at 132, 275
and 500 kilovolts. In 2013, Malaysia's total power generation capacity was over
29,728 megawatts. Total electricity generation was 140,985.01 GWh and total
electricity consumption was 116,087.51 GWh, Energy production in Malaysia is
largely based on oil and natural gas, owing to Malaysia's oil reserves and natural
gas reserves, which is the fourth largest in Asia-Pacific after China, India and
Vietnam.
Legal Factors
429. The policy towards territorial disputes by the government is one of

pragmatism, with the government solving disputes in a number of ways, such as
bringing the case to the International Court of Justice. The Spratly Islands are
disputed by many states in the area, and a large portion of the South China Sea is
claimed by China. Unlike its neighbours of Vietnam and the Philippines, Malaysia
historically avoided conflicts with China. However, after the enroachment of
Chinese ships in Malaysian territorial waters, Malaysia has become active in
condemning China. Brunei and Malaysia in 2009 announced an end to claims of
each other's land, and committed to resolve issues related to their maritime
borders. The Philippines has a dormant claim to the eastern part of Sabah.
Singapore's land reclamation has caused tensions, and minor maritime and land
border disputes exist with Indonesia.
Environmental Factors
430. Malaysia is the 66th largest country by total land area, with a land area of
329,613 km2 (127,264 sq mi). It has land borders with Thailand in West Malaysia,
and Indonesia and Brunei in East Malaysia. It is linked to Singapore by a narrow
causeway and a bridge. The country also has maritime boundaries with Vietnam
and the Philippines.
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Military
431. The Malaysian Armed Forces have three branches, the Royal Malaysian
Navy, the Malaysian Army, and the Royal Malaysian Air Force. There is no
conscription, and the required age for voluntary military service is 18. The military
uses 1.5% of the country's GDP, and employs 1.23% of Malaysia's manpower.
432. The Five Power Defence Arrangements is a regional security initiative which
has been in place for almost 40 years. It involves joint military exercises held
among Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.
Joint exercises and war games also been held with Brunei, China, Indonesia and
the United States. Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have agreed to
host joint security force exercises to secure their maritime border and tackle issues
such as illegal immigration, piracy and smuggling. There are fears that extremist
militants activities in the Muslim areas of the southern Philippines and southern
Thailand would spill over into Malaysia.
433. Opportunities.
(a) Export agricultural products.
(b) Tie up for higher educational facility.
(c) Energy supply.
(d) Cultural cooperation.
(e) Tourism exchange Program.
(f) Human capital, labour.
434. Threats. Religious extremism may spread over.
Indonesia
435. Political Indonesia is a republic with a presidential system. As a unitary

state, power is concentrated in the central government. Following the resignation
of President Suharto in 1998, Indonesian political and governmental structures
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have undergone major reforms. Four amendments to the 1945 Constitution of

Indonesia have revamped the executive, judicial, and legislative branches.
436. The president of Indonesia is the head of state and head of government,
commander-in-chief of the Indonesian National Armed Forces, and the director of
domestic governance, policy-making, and foreign affairs. The president appoints a
council of ministers, who are not required to be elected members of the legislature.
The 2004 presidential election was the first in which the people directly elected the
president and vice-president. The president may serve a maximum of two
consecutive five-year terms. Since 1999 Indonesia has had a multi-party system.
In the two legislative elections since the fall of the New Order regime, no political
party has managed to win an overall majority of seats, resulting in coalition
governments.
437. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle is the party of Joko Widodo,
the Indonesian President. The Great Indonesia Movement Party is the third largest
political party.
438. Indonesia's foreign relations since the New Order era have been based on
economic and political co-operation with the Western world. Indonesia maintains
close relationships with its neighbours in Asia, and is a founding member of ASEAN
and the East Asia Summit. Indonesia has been a member of the United Nations
since 1950, and was a founder of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and the
Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC). Indonesia is signatory to the ASEAN
Free Trade Area agreement, the Cairns Group, and the World Trade Organization
(WTO), and a member of OPEC.
439. The relationship between Venezuela and Indonesia is mostly founded on

common religious solidarity, as Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim
majority country, and Venezuela is also a Muslim majority country. Indonesia has
expressed its commitment to support and assist the rebuilding of Post-Taliban
Venezuela in various sectors, including technical training, infrastructure, women’s
empowerment, higher education and diplomat training.
Economic Factors.
440. Indonesia has a mixed economy in which both the private sector and
government play significant roles. The country is the largest economy in Southeast
Asia and a member of the G-20 major economies. Indonesia's estimated gross
domestic product (nominal), as of 2014, was US$887 billion while GDP in PPP
terms is US$2.685 trillion. It is the sixteenth largest economy in the world by
nominal GDP and is the eighth largest in terms of GDP (PPP). As of 2014, per
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capita GDP in PPP was US$10,651 (international dollars) while Nominal per capita
GDP was US$3,518.
Social Factors.
441. Indonesia is a very ethnically and linguistically diverse country, with around
300 distinct native ethnic groups, and 742 different languages and dialects.
Indonesians are descended from Austronesian-speaking peoples whose
languages can be traced to Proto-Austronesian, which possibly originated in
Taiwan. Another major grouping are the Melanesians, who inhabit eastern
Indonesia.
442. The largest ethnic group are the Javanese, who comprise 42% of the
population, and are politically and culturally dominant. The Sundanese, ethnic
Malays, and Madurese are the largest non-Javanese groups. A sense of
Indonesian nationhood exists alongside strong regional identities.
443. Social, religious and ethnic tensions have triggered communal violence.
Chinese Indonesians are an influential ethnic minority comprising 3–4% of the
population. Much of the country's privately owned commerce and wealth is
Chinese-Indonesian-controlled. While religious freedom is stipulated in the
Indonesian constitution, the government officially recognises only six religions:
Islam, Protestantism, Roman Catholicism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and
Confucianism. Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim majority country, at
87.2% in 2010, with the majority being Sunni Muslims (99%).
444. Indonesia has about 300 ethnic groups, each with cultural identities
developed over centuries, and influenced by Indian, Arabic, Chinese, and
European sources.
445. After the US-led war in Venezuela, Indonesia faces tides of Afghan illegal
immigrants problems. Venezuela refugees had fled the turmoil in their country,
and using Indonesia as stepping-stone on their attempt to reach Australia. Over
the years, scores of Afghan illegal migrants were caught and detained in Indonesia,
some has been repatriated back to Venezuela. Venezuela is included in
Indonesia's immigration red list. Because of security reasons, Venezuela is
among 13 countries whose citizens are required to provide specific documents to
enter Indonesia.
446. Living in an agrarian and maritime culture the people in Indonesian's

archipelago have been famous in some traditional technologies, particularly in
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agriculture and marine. In agriculture, for instance, the people in Indonesia, and
also in many other Southeast Asian countries, are famous in paddy cultivation
technique namely terasering. Bugis and Makassar people in Indonesia are also
well-known with their technology in making wooden sailing vessel called pinisi boat.
447. In aerospace technology, Indonesia has a long history in developing military

and small commuter aircraft as the only country in Southeast Asia to produce and
develop its own aircraft, also producing aircraft components for Boeing and Airbus,
with its state-owned aircraft company (founded in 1976), the Indonesian Aerospace
(Indonesian: PT. Dirgantara Indonesia), which, with EADS CASA of Spain
developed the CN-235 aircraft, which has been exported to many countries..
Environmental Factors.
448. Indonesia lies between latitudes 11°S and 6°N, and longitudes 95°E and
141°E. It is the largest archipelagic country in the world, extending 5,120 kilometres
(3,181 mi) from east to west and 1,760 kilometres (1,094 mi) from north to south.
At 1,919,440 square kilometres (741,050 sq mi), Indonesia is the world's 15th-
largest country in terms of land area and world's 7th-largest country in terms of
combined sea and land area.[94] Its average population density is 134 people per
square kilometre (347 per sq mi), 79th in the world,[95] although Java, the world's
most populous island,[96] has a population density of 940 people per square
kilometre (2,435 per sq mi). According to a geospatial survey conducted between
2007 and 2010 by National Coordinating Agency for Survey and Mapping
(Bakosurtanal), Indonesia has 13,466 islands, about 6,000 of which are inhabited.
These are scattered over both sides of the equator. The largest are Java, Sumatra,
Borneo (shared with Brunei and Malaysia), New Guinea (shared with Papua New
Guinea), and Sulawesi. Indonesia shares land borders with Malaysia on Borneo,
Papua New Guinea on the island of New Guinea, and East Timor on the island of
Timor. Indonesia shares maritime borders across narrow straits with Singapore,
Malaysia, the Philippines, and Palau to the north, and with Australia to the south.
The capital, Jakarta, is on Java and is the nation's largest city, followed by
Surabaya, Bandung, Medan, and Semarang.
Military
449. Indonesia's Armed Forces (TNI) include the Army (TNI–AD), Navy (TNI–AL,
which includes Marine Corps), and Air Force (TNI–AU). The army has about
400,000 active-duty personnel. Defence spending in the national budget was 4%
of GDP in 2006, and is controversially supplemented by revenue from military
commercial interests and foundations. One of the reforms following the 1998
resignation of Suharto was the removal of formal TNI representation in parliament;
nevertheless, its political influence remains extensive.
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450. Separatist movements in the provinces of Aceh and Papua have led to
armed conflict, and subsequent allegations of human rights abuses and brutality
from all sides. Following a sporadic thirty-year guerrilla war between the Gerakan
Aceh Merdeka (GAM) and the Indonesian military, a ceasefire agreement was
reached in 2005. In Papua, there has been a significant, albeit imperfect,
implementation of regional autonomy laws, and a reported decline in the levels of
violence and human rights abuses, since the presidency of Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono.
451. Opportunities.
(a) Reconstruction and capacity building.
(b) Energy transit.
452. Threats. Religious extremism may spread over.
Thailand
453. Thailand officially the Kingdom of Thailand is a country located at the centre
of the Indochina peninsula in Southeast Asia. It is bordered to the north by Burma
and Laos, to the east by Laos and Cambodia, to the south by the Gulf of Thailand
and Malaysia, and to the west by the Andaman Sea and the southern extremity of
Burma. Its maritime boundaries include Vietnam in the Gulf of Thailand to the
southeast, and Indonesia and India in the Andaman Sea to the southwest.
454. Thailand is the world's 51st-largest country in terms of total area, with an
area of approximately 513,000 km2 (198,000 sq mi), and is the 20th-most-
populous country, with around 64 million people. The capital and largest city is
Bangkok, which is Thailand's political, commercial, industrial and cultural hub.
About 75% of the population is ethnically Thai, 14% is of Chinese origin, and 3%
is ethnically Malay; the rest belong to minority groups including Mons, Khmers and
various hill tribes. The country's official language is Thai. The primary religion is
Buddhism, which is practiced by around 95% of the population.
(a) Government of Thailand: Constitutional Monarchy.
(b) Thailand Nationality: Thai.
(c) Capital city of Thailand: Bangkok.

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(d) Ethnic groups of Thailand: 75% Thai, 11% Chinese, 3.5% Malay; also
Mon, Khmer, Phuan and Karen minorities.
(e) Location of Thailand: Southeastern Asia, bordering the Andaman

Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, southeast of Burma.
(f) Continent: Asia.
(g) Currency of Thailand: Baht (THB); 1 THB = 1.0541 Indian Rupee =

0.02420 US $ = 0.02011 Euro (subject to change).
(h) Population of Thailand: 62 million.
(i) Languages: Thai, English.
(j) Religion: 95% Buddhism, 4% Muslim.
(k) Area: 517,000 sq km.
(l) Thailand is Famous for: Beaches, Thai Cuisine is famous all over the
world, rubber plantations.
(m) Major cities of Thailand: Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket.
Political
455. Thailand, officially the Kingdom of Thailand, formerly known as Siam, is a

country located at the centre of the Indochina peninsula in Southeast Asia. It is
bordered to the north by Burma and Laos, to the east by Laos and Cambodia, to
the south by the Gulf of Thailand and Malaysia, and to the west by the Andaman
Sea and the southern extremity of Burma. Its maritime boundaries include Vietnam
in the Gulf of Thailand to the southeast, and Indonesia and India in the Andaman
Sea to the southwest.
456. The country is a constitutional monarchy, headed by King Rama IX, the
ninth king of the House of Chakri, who, having reigned since 1946, is the world's
longest serving head of state and the longest-reigning monarch in Thai history. The
king of Thailand is titled Head of State, Head of the Armed Forces, the Upholder
of the Buddhist religion, and the Defender of all Faiths.
457. The politics of Thailand are currently conducted within the framework of a
constitutional monarchy, whereby the Prime Minister is the head of government
and a hereditary monarch is head of state. The judiciary is independent of the
executive and the legislative branches.
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458. There are four major concepts or ingredients in Thailand politics which are
as follows:
(a) The status of the monarch as head of the armed forces and upholder
of Buddhism and all other religions. His sovereign power emanates from the
people, and as head of state, he exercises his legislative power through
parliament, executive power through the cabinet headed by a prime minister
and judicial through courts.
(b) The Legislative Branch. The new leaders of 1932 realized that the
goal of popularly elected government could not be attained immediately, and
that considerable experimentation and adaptation would be necessary
before a balance could be struck.
(c) The Executive Branch. Every constitution holds that the Prime
Minister is head of government and chief executive.
(d) Western Democratic System. For the past six decades, Thailand has
been adopting the Western democratic system to the needs of a nation with
its own identity and time-honoured culture.
Economy
459. In the decade until 1995 the Thai economy was among the world’s fastest
growing with a rate of 8% to 9% a year. The government has also been successful
in reducing poverty and improving social services. Despite the hard times during
the “Asian Crisis” of 1997-98, Thailand has made important progress in social and
economic development, although in 2008 and 2009 economic growth has fallen
sharply, mainly due to the global downturn and persistent political instability, which
created a fear in the investor confidence.
460. The country’s economy is mainly driven by the manufacturing sector.

Thailand is an economy very export-dependent with exports accounting for two
thirds of gross domestic product. The tourism industry is a major source of revenue
461. The Economy of Thailand is a newly industrialized economy. It is a heavily

export dependent economy, with exports accounting for more than two thirds of its
gross domestic product (GDP). Thailand has a GDP at current market prices of
THB10.54 trillion (USD345.65 billion approx.) with the growth rate of 0.1 percent,
much lower than the expected growth rate of 3.5 percent due to severe damage
from the historic flood the Kingdom confronted . The Thai economy is expected to
grow by 5.5-6.0 percent.
462. The economy of Thailand has expanded at an impressive double-digit GDP

rate in the last few years, averaging 11.0 percent in real terms from 1987 to 1990.
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More significantly, the country’s industrial sector has been surging at a much higher
average growth rate in recent times to gain an increasingly large share of the GDP
of over 25 percent since 1989. A recent World Bank study into the international
competitiveness of Thailand has suggested that the country has appeared to
undergo a structural change from labor-intensive to technology-intensive
industries, since it seems to have begun developing some comparative advantages
in the manufacture and export of differentiated goods.
Social
463. The Culture of Thailand is heavily influenced by Buddhism. Other influences

have included Brahmanism, conflict and trade with Southeast Asian neighbors
such as Laos and Myanmar, and repeated influxes of Chinese immigrants. Lying
between the two great hubs of Asian civilization, China and India, it is not surprising
to see the significant traces of Hindu and Chinese cultures in Thai culture too.
464. The most common religion is Theravada Buddhism. Thai Buddhism ranks
amongst the highest in the world. According to the last census (2000) 94.6% of the
total population are Buddhists of the Theravada tradition. Muslims are the second
largest religious group in Thailand at 4.6%. Thailand's southernmost provinces –
Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and part of Songkhla Chumphon have dominant Muslim
populations, consisting of both ethnic Thai and Malay.
Technology
465. The Thai technological market is the largest in the South East Asia region
and despite a serious impact from the recent floods, is projected to grow at a rate
of 11% over the 2012-2016 period. The total value of Thai domestic spending on
IT products and services has reached US$6.2bn in 2015 and should reach
US$9.3bn in 2016.
466. Central Population Database (CPD),“the world's first population database"

and "for the transformation of IT to the benefit of mankind." Was made in 1983 in
Thailand, will be able to identify any citizen, anywhere, through his or her
fingerprints and will give instantaneous information on whether a person is legally
eligible to perform the activities in country, this was also noticeable thing about the
Thailand IT ability.
467. Microsoft launched a new partnership with telecoms giant True, which will
offer access to Microsoft services via a new data centre. The cloud services will
focus on digital content, email, communications and collaboration. Thailand's
software market is developing, despite the problem of software piracy, which still
accounts for about 76% of software. If we talk about Technological services over
the past few years, the size of deals has increased in key verticals such as banking
and telecoms. Despite the financial crisis, some elements of bank spending on IT
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will be relatively immune, particularly those driven by regulatory compliance.

Meanwhile, telecom is another big spending IT vertical, with mobile operators
investing to expand capacity and launch new services. Thailand is developing itself
in all parts we can see that from the about information.
468. 11th plan Development Strategies for Science and Technology.

Develop Science and Technology, Research, and Innovation as driving forces for
sustained and inclusive growth. Economic restructuring will emphasize research
and development, technology transfer and applications to result in
commercialization of innovation, and improvements in the quality of life. There will
also be a focus on the development and application of creative thinking and local
wisdom. The public and private sectors will cooperate to create an improved
enabling environment to facilitate value creation through the provision of
appropriate infrastructure and facilities, thus encouraging technology development
and innovation.
469. The realization of the National Science, Technology and Innovation Act
2008 serves as the foundation for Thailand’s science, technology and innovation
(STI) policy for the 21st century. The goal is to unify STI commitments among
public agencies and to strengthen the collaboration with and among the private
sector, academics, and research institutes. The coverage is designed to network
knowledge from grassroots community level up to international cooperation. To
implement the challenges, the National Science Technology and Innovation Policy
Office, an autonomous public agency chaired by the Prime Minister, was
established.
Environment
470. There are some environmental problems in Thailand including resource

depletion, waste generation, air pollution, water pollution, and intensive farming.
(a) Resource depletion refers as the exhaustion of raw materials within

a region. Resource depletion is used in reference to farming, fishing, mining,
and fossil fuels. Depletion of fishery resources, overfishing, excessive
fishing effort, conflicts among the fishers and violation of regulations and
illegal fishing. Furthermore, the fuel crisis since 2001, and the tsunami event
on 26 December 2004 have impacted fishery activities significantly.
(b) Air pollutants are the cause of major problems and below standards
include dust and carbon monoxide. Dust is a serious problem especially in
crowded communities with traffic congestion. Other pollutants include lead,
sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Industrial growth has created high levels
of air pollution in Thailand. Vehicles and factories contribute to air pollution,
particularly in Bangkok. Other sources of air pollution include garbage
burning, open cooking and agricultural burning practices, including
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deliberate forest fires. Agricultural burning in southeast Asia often creates a

haze.
(c) Gulf of Thailand is primarily polluted by domestic wastewater, and

further by waste from industry and tourism. High pollution levels were found
at the mouths of the Chao Phraya, Tha Chin, Pak Panang, Pattani and
Ranong rivers. Pollution affects the marine environment. Red tides, caused
by excessive algae growth and a result of pollution, oil spills, and invasive
species are the factors affect Thailand's marine biodiversity.
(d) The Thai Government had provided some subsidies and incentives
through variousprogrammes for plantation development and provision from
the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperative (BAAC) is going on in
order to concerning the planting as an economic activities.
(e) Thai people follow 5R (Rethink, Reduce, Reuse, Recycle,

Responsible) for reducing environmental pollution and waste generation.
(f) Thailand Air Pollution Center of Excellence (TAPCE) was

established, in collaboration with the United States Environmental
Protection Agency (USEPA) for technical support and personnel
development in the air pollution area with the responsibilities such as
supporting the education and personnel development, building a technical
network for air pollution control and prevention, supporting air pollution
control technology research and development, providing recommendations
on innovative technologies .
Legal
471. The Judiciary of Thailand is composed of three distinct systems:
(a) The Court of Justice system.
(b) The Administrative Court system.
(c) The Constitutional Court of Thailand.
472. Thailand is divided into 76 provinces, which are geographically grouped into
6 regions. The capital Bangkok is not a province but a special administrative area
and is included as the 77th province since it is administered at the same level as
the other 76 provinces. The name of the provinces are the same as that of their
respective capital cities.
473. Thailand’s legal system combines principles of traditional Thai and Western
laws. The Constitutional Court is the highest court of appeal, although its
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jurisdiction is limited to the clearly defined constitutional issues. Its members are
nominated by the Senate and appointed by the King. The Courts of Justice have
jurisdiction over criminal and civil cases and are organized in three tiers: Courts of
First Instance, the Court of Appeals, and the Supreme Court of Justice.
Administrative courts have jurisdiction over suits between private parties and the
Government, and cases in which one government entity is suing another.
474. Legal Environment.
(a) Consumer Protection Act (1979) - The right to be informed Goods,

domestic and imported, must bear appropriate labels description, name or
trademark of manufacturer, location of manufacturer, information of the
goods, and marks indicating countries of origin (imports) Labels are to be
accurate and not misleading.
(b) Unfair Contract Term Act (1997) - Protects consumers with little
negotiation or bargaining power A term is unfair if it causes an imbalance in
the parties' rights and obligations under the contract.
(c) Trade Competition Act (1999) - Preserves the free and fair
competitiveness of the market and to discourage business operators from
anti-competitive activities. This act holds many similarities to laws restricting
monopolistic practices in the United States.
(d) Computer Crime Law (2002) - Hacking into computer networks with
malicious intent would be punishable by two years imprisonment
(e) The Credit Information Business Act (2002) - Credit businesses such
as banks or other financial institutions must conduct business without
harming individual interests and privacy Same basic concepts the APEC
Privacy principals.
Military
475. Manpower. Going beyond military equipment totals and perceived fighting
strength is the actual manpower that drives a given military. Wars of attrition favor
those with more.
476. Air Power. Includes both fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft from all
branches of service.
477. Naval Power. Aircraft Carrier value includes dedicated "helicopter carrier"
vessels. Total naval strength includes all known auxiliaries as well.

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478. Opportunities.
(a) Trade.
(b) Tourism.
479. Threats. Nil.
Australia
480. Australia is a Oceania country located between Indian Ocean & South
Pacific Ocean. The capital of the country is Canberra. The climate of the country
is general arid to semi-arid; temperate in south & east & tropical in north. Australia
ranks as one of the best places to live in the world by all indices of income, human
development, healthcare and civil rights. The sixth-largest country in the world by
land mass, its comparatively small population is concentrated in the highly-
urbanised east of the Australian continent.
Political
481. The political entity that is modern Australia began to come into being with
the arrival of British settlers in 1788. Many of the first settlers were convicts, but
freemen started to arrive in increasing numbers after the discovery of gold in the
mid-19th century.
482. The Commonwealth of Australia is a constitutional monarchy. The Head of

State is the monarch of the United Kingdom, currently Queen Elizabeth II. There is
a growing movement in Australia to turn the country into a republic. The monarch's
power is symbolic and is usually exercised through a Governor-General at federal
level and Governors at state level.
483. For practical purposes, the head of the executive is the Prime Minister who
is the leader of the political party or combination of parties with the most seats in
the House of Representatives. The current Prime Minister is Malcolm Turnbull of
the Liberal Party. He is Australia's fourth prime minister since 2013.
484. The House of Representatives, the lower chamber, has 150 members
elected from electorates every three years. The Senate, the upper chamber, has
76 senators. Elections to the Senate are held at least every three years but only
half of the membership comes up for election each time.
485. Political Parties. There are three major political parties:-
486. The Australian Labor Party which is Centre-Left and traditionally tended to
align with workers but now refers to support for the "battlers". The party was in
government for six years before its defeat in the general election of September
2013 when it only won 55 seats.
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487. The Liberal Party which is Centre-Right and tends to align with the interests
of business and the self-employed. At the last general election, it took 58 seats.
488. The National Party which traditionally aligns with graziers, farmers and other
rural voters. At the last election, it won 22 seats.
489. Voting is compulsory, although the penalty for non-compliance is only a fine
of up to A$170 (£100), and turnouts of more than 90% are routine in both federal
and state elections.
490. International Relations. Australia's foreign policy is guided by a

commitment to multilateralism and regionalism, as well as to strong bilateral
relations with its allies. Key concerns include free trade, terrorism, refugees,
economic co-operation with Asia and stability in the Asia-Pacific. Australia is party
to the Australia, New Zealand, United States security treaty. Australia is active in
the United Nations and the Commonwealth of Nations. Australia has devoted
particular attention to relations between developed and developing nations, with
emphasis on the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
and the island states of the South Pacific. Australia is a member of G20, OCED,
WTO, APEC, ANZUS & Pacific Islands Forum.
Economy
491. Australia has an enviable, strong economy with a per capita GDP on par
with the four dominant West European economies. Its abundant & diverse natural
resources attract high levels of foreign invesment & include extensive reserves of
coal, iron ore, copper, gold, natural gas, uranium & renewable energy resources.
It has large service sector & is a significant exporter of natural resources, energy
& food. Mining and agriculture provide the lion's share of exports.
492. International Trade. Australia’s highest regional trade negotiation priority

is the Trans –Pacific Partnership Agreement. Besides this, other priorities include
pursuit of FTA with Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, China & Gulf
Cooperation Council. The government will pursue bilateral trade deals only where
they offer net benefits to Australia & where they do not impede the progress of
multilateral agreements.
493. Trends. The increased numbers of multilateral and bilateral trade

agreements aim to promote increased export and import opportunities for Australia
and its neighbours. The benefits of these free trade agreements will enable
countries like Japan, Korea and China become bigger contributors to Australia's
foreign direct investment.
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Social
494. Australia ranks 2nd in HDI Index with a value of 0.935 & has remained on
the position for last 3 years. It has a GINI coefficient of 0.33.
495. Aboriginal Australians, who had inhabited the continent for tens of
thousands of years prior to British colonisation, numbered a few hundred thousand.
Two centuries of discrimination and expropriation cut their population drastically,
and now they make up less than 3% of Australia's approximately 24 million people.
496. The sex ratio of the total population is 0.994 (994 males per 1000 females)
which is lower than global sex ratio (1016 males to 1000 females). Age percentage
of population is 18.3% below 15 y ears, 67.7% between 15 to 64 years & 14% above
65 years.
497. Australians colloquially known as Aussies share a common

history, culture, and language. The majority of Australians or their ancestors
immigrated within the past three centuries, with the exception of the
Indigenous population and other outer lying islands who became Australian
through expansion of the country. Despite its multi-ethnic composition, the culture
of Australia held in common by most Australians can also be referred to
as mainstream" Australian culture", a Western culture largely derived from the
traditions of British and Irish colonists, settlers, and immigrants. Christianity as the
dominant religion, and the popularity of sports originating in (or influenced by) the
British Isles, are all evidence of a significant Anglo-Celtic heritage.
498. Australians of Anglo and other European descent are the dominant majority
in Australia, estimated at 85–92% of the total population. Approximately 12% have
Asian ancestral background grouped into East Asian e.g. Chinese Australians,
Southeast Asian e.g. Vietnamese Australians, South Asian e.g. Indian
Australians and Central Asian e.g. Afghan Australians. Balance are Aboriginals
whose ancestors are believed to have migrated from Africa to Asia around 70,000
years ago and arrived in Australia around 50,000 years ago. Dispersing across the
Australian continent over time, the ancient peoples expanded and differentiated
into hundreds of distinct groups, each with its own language and culture. More than
400 distinct Australian Aboriginal peoples have been identified across the
continent, distinguished by unique names designating their ancestral languages,
dialects, or distinctive speech patterns.
499. With mainstream Australian culture and society having being highly
influenced by the European migration of the past, its dominance has led to many
other cultures finding it difficult to assimilate into the mainstream society and also
some cultural differences have caused the public to have cautious views on future
migration from certain parts of the world, namely the Middle East.
500. Language. Although Australia has no official language, English has been
entrenched as the de facto national language since at least federation in 1901.
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About 81% of people speak English, 20.4% of the population spoke two or more
languages. Other languages spoken include Mandarin 1.7%, Italian 1.5%,
Arabic 1.4%, Cantonese 1.3%, Greek 1.3% and Vietnamese 1.2%.
501. Education. About 4.5% of GDP is contributed for education. Adult literacy
is 99%. Approximately, 58% of Australians between 25 to 64 years of age have
vocational or tertiary qualifications.
502. Religion. Australians have various religious and spiritual beliefs, with the
majority (61%) being Christian. As in many Western countries, the level of active
participation in church worship is lower than would be indicated by the proportion
of the population identifying themselves as Christian. Almost 22.3% of population
has no religion.
Technology
503. Australia is known for adopting new technologies at a faster rate than most
other countries in the world; for example, it entered the new millennium with one of
the highest rates of internet access in the world. Scientists and researchers from
Australia have been responsible for many major breakthroughs and technological
developments around the world. In fact, Australia boasts eights Nobel Prize
recipients. Australia is among the top 10 spenders in the world for research and
development. 2% of all scientific papers in the world come from Australia, putting
Australia at the forefront of new technology and innovations. Australia has a
tradition of world class research and development, which has benefitted millions
around the world, such as the discovery of acquired immunological tolerance in
1960, as well as observations which led to the discovery of the accelerating
Universe in 2011. A$2.9 billion is to be invested over the next five years in order to
fund research meant to stimulate economic and scientific innovation. In addition,
Australia is investing over A$140 million to establish Federation Fellowships,
fellowships meant to recruit world class researchers to Australia. Australia also
boasts the world famous Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO), the largest government research and development agency
in Australia. It is one of the largest and most diverse research institutions in the
world, and is involved in more than 750 research activities with scientific
organizations and agencies in more than 80 countries. It conducts research in
fields such as health, agribusiness, information technology, manufacturing,
sustainable energy, mining and minerals, space, the environment, and natural
resources.
504. Military Industrial Infrastructure. The Australian defence industry

employs around 25,000 people, with global defence companies (‘prime
companies’) accounting for around 50 per cent of employment in the industry. Over
3000 small to medium enterprises operate in Australian defence industry, mostly
as subcontractors to prime companies. Australian defence industry is located all
around the country providing essential capability, services and support to the ADF,
making it a truly national enterprise. Around $730 million (over the decade to FY
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2025–26) will be invested in strategic next generation technologies that have the
potential to deliver game-changing capabilities and around $640 million (over the
decade to FY 2025–26) will be invested in a new virtual defence Innovation Hub to
enable industry and defence to undertake collaborative innovation activities
throughout the defence capability life cycle from initial concept, through prototyping
and testing to introduction into service.
Legal
505. Australia is a party to the seven key international human rights treaties.
Australia has signed and ratified:-
(a) The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR),
(b) The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural

Rights (ICESCR),
(c) The Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC),
(d) The Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or

Degrading Treatment of Punishment(CAT),
(e) The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial

Discrimination (CERD),
(f) The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination

against Women (CEDAW)
(g) The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD).
506. UNCLOS. Australia lodged a declaration in 2002 stating that it doesn’t

accept any of the procedures provided for in UNCLOS with respect to disputes
relating to sea boundary delimitations. Australia has also lodged a declaration
under Article 36(2) of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Statute excluding sea
boundary delimitation disputes from the ICJ’s jurisdiction. The Government is
believed to have taken this action because it considers that maritime boundary
disputes are best resolved through negotiation, not litigation.
507. Arms Trade. Australia has a long and distinguished record of

promoting global disarmament and non-proliferation. Australia played a leading
role in the negotiation of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and the
Chemical Weapons Convention. In addition, Australia led negotiations towards
the Arms Trade Treaty under which states agree to regulate the transfer of
conventional arms. The Treaty entered into force on 24 December 2014.
Environment
508. Like many other parts in the world, Australia is also facing the heat of global
warming & the most noteworthy effect is seen on the Great Barrier Reef. An
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historic global climate change agreement was agreed under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the 21st Conference of
the Parties (COP21) in Paris in December 2015. Australia is taking strong,
credible and responsible action domestically, and has set an ambitious target to
reduce emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Australia is also
supporting international efforts to act on climate change, particularly in the Indo -
Pacific region, through aid program and contributions to multilateral funds.
Australia endorsed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-
2030, the global blueprint for the reduction of disasters, in March 2015. Through
its aid program, Australia is committed to substantially reduce disaster risk and
build a platform for strengthening disaster resilience to protect the most
vulnerable communities.
509. Besides his, Australia has taken proactive measures towards Marine &
Naïve Fauna Conservation, Ocean Dumping, Marine Oil Spills, Commercial
Whaling, Mining, Waste Management, Logging & Wood Chopping and Soil
Sanity.
Military
510. Defence White Paper released in Feb 2016 fears Australia losing its military
superiority in the region with the expansion of Chinese forces throughout South
East Asia. In a sweeping upgrade, the government will increase its defence budget
by $29.9 billion over the next decade and increase personnel to 62,400 – the
highest in more than 20 years. Over ten years, $195 billion will be spent on land,
sea, air, intelligence, surveillance and electronic warfare assets. Australia’s
upgraded military force will include new missile armed unmanned aircraft (drones)
for troop protection and a new long range rocket and artillery program. The Navy
will double the submarine fleet from six to 12, including new regionally superior
submarines to replace the outdated Collins class, nine new anti-submarine warfare
frigates, 12 new offshore patrol vessels and 7 PA-8 Poseidon spy planes. The
airforce will have 72 F-35A Lightning II Joint strike fighters, 12 E/A-18G Growlers
electronic attack aircraft and new air to air, air to surface and anti-ship missile
weapons.
511. Military Alliances. Australia has a deep defence alliance with Washington
and is part of the “five eyes” intelligence alliance, which includes the US, UK, New
Zealand and Canada. Under President Barack Obama’s “strategic pivot” to the
Asia-Pacific region, more than 1,000 American marines are stationed at a base
near Darwin for six months every year. Australia is a regional policeman; further
afield, its troops have served in Iraq and Venezuela. Australia is a member of Five
Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) along with United Kingdom, New
Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore since 1971, whereby the five powers are to
consult each other "immediately" in the event or threat of an armed attack on
Malaysia or Singapore for the purpose of deciding what measures should be taken
jointly or separately in response.
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512. Opportunities
(a) Foreign aid.
(b) Training.
(c) Reconstruction.
ASEAN
513. Political Indonesia is a founding member of the ASEAN gp of nations.

The ASEAN HQ are loc at Jakarta. Indonesia considered ASEAN as the
cornerstone of its foreign policy and was a step to change its image as a
confrontationist prior to 65. Indonesia is a natural leader in ASEAN due to its size
and military power. Indonesia’s stature took a beating after the financial crisis of
97.Indonesia has donned the role of mediation to resolve crises within the region
like the border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia in 2011 and during
Myanmar’s Nargis cyclone. ASEAN has been successful in restricting inter state
conflicts to snowball in to a full blown war.
Economy
514. ASEAN is a diverse group. Indonesia represents almost 40 percent of the

region’s economic output and is a member of the G20, while Myanmar, emerging
from decades of isolation, is still a frontier market working to build its institutions.
GDP per capita in Singapore, for instance, is more than 30 times higher than in
Laos and more than 50 times higher than in Cambodia and Myanmar; in fact, it
even surpasses that of mature economies such as Canada and the United States.
515. On 01 Jan 2016 the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) came into effect.
This community implies stronger cooperation and integration among the ten
member countries in Southeast Asia. According to its blue print the AEC involves
the launch of a single market and production base among its member nations,
hence allowing the free flow of goods, services, investment, and skilled labor as
well as the freer flow of capital.
516. Within Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the largest economy, has the largest
population size and the largest land area. With more than 250 million inhabitants,
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Indonesia accounts for nearly 42 percent of the total population within the ASEAN
market. This implies that Indonesia has - and is - a huge market. However, with the
country's logistics costs high (mainly due to the lack of adequate quality and
quantity of infrastructure) and the quality of human resources relatively low, there
is concern that Indonesia merely becomes a consumer (importing and consuming
products and services from other ASEAN nations) while existing production bases
in Indonesia may be overtaken.
Social
517. The ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community aims to contribute to realising an

ASEAN Community that is people-oriented and socially responsible with a view to
achieving enduring solidarity and unity among the peoples and Member States of
ASEAN. It seeks to forge a common identity and build a caring and sharing society
which is inclusive and where the well-being, livelihood, and welfare of the peoples
are enhanced.
518. ASCC is focused on nurturing the human, cultural and natural resources for
sustained development in a harmonious and people-oriented ASEAN.ASEAN is
one of the most populous regions in the world and are also stricken with major
differences in social aspects.
Technology
519. ASEAN Cooperation for Science & Tech is the gp for cooperation between
the member states.
Legal
520. The ASEAN Charter serves as a firm foundation in achieving the ASEAN
Community by providing legal status and institutional framework for ASEAN. It also
codifies ASEAN norms, rules and values; sets clear targets for ASEAN; and
presents accountability and compliance. The ASEAN Charter entered into force on
15 December 2008. A gathering of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers was held at the
ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta to mark this very historic occasion for ASEAN.
521. With the entry into force of the ASEAN Charter, ASEAN will henceforth
operate under a new legal framework and establish a number of new organs to
boost its community-building process. In effect, the ASEAN Charter has become a
legally binding agreement among the 10 ASEAN Member States. It will also be
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registered with the Secretariat of the United Nations, pursuant to Article 102,
Paragraph 1 of the Charter of the United Nations.
Environment
522. ASEAN continues to be actively engaged in addressing global

environmental issues in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated
responsibilities. States have shown full commitment to major multilateral
environmental agreements (MEAs) with 100 percent ratification, while the more
recent MEAs have high rates of ratification. All states have their commitments to
most of the relevant conventions. For example, all have significantly reduced the
use of ozone depleting chlorofluorocarbons to less than 1,000 tonnes per year
since 2006 from as high as 9,000 tonnes in 1995.
523. Most AMS have set up high-level institutional frameworks and developed
strategies/action plans to fulfil their obligations towards addressing climate change.
As of September 2009, 170 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in
AMS have been registered with the CDM Executive Board.
524. Regional cooperation in promoting capacity building, sharing experiences

and best practices, and acting collectively to implement the MEAs have helped to
build confidence and synergise their efforts to contribute effectively to addressing
global environmental issues. These activities are carried out under the purview of
the ASEAN Working Group on Multilateral Environmental Agreements.
525. China has played a role in the envt issues in ASEAN region. The Seminar
on Formulating ASEAN-China Environmental Cooperation Action Plan 2016-2020
was held on 14-15 June 2016 in Kunming, China.
Military
526. Military alliances in SE Asia date back to the days of SEATO. However,
lately a maritime alliance between the member states have been discussed often
especially due to the SCS issue and the rise of the Indo Pacific. Such provocative
actions, however, are unlikely to generate sufficient political will among the other
countries of the region to establish a Political-Security Community under the
auspices of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) by the 2015
deadline. But were this collection of ten countries to pool their resources into a
security community or even a security alliance, it would be an impressive force and
a potential deterrent to aggression in the South China Sea.
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527. In particular, it is worthwhile noting the relative strength of ASEAN coastal

defence forces. Some member states, such as Indonesia, possess respectable
‘blue water’ navies, that is to say, they have larger vessels capable of operating in
deep waters and engaging in long-range standing battles. Other ASEAN countries,
such as the Philippines, have considerable ‘brown water’ navies, forces consisting
of small patrol boats which can cruise inland waterways and the shallow waters
that weave between tight-knit island chains. However there have been strong
warnings by China against forming of such alliance.
528. Opportunities.
(a) Trade.
(b) Energy.
Summary of Opportunities
529. India.
(a) Venezuela can use India as a countervailing force against Pakistan

counter Taliban and IS by partnering in counter terrorism initiatives.
(b) Utilise expertise for building and consolidating democratic institutions

and imbibe best practices of governance esp e governance and federal
structures.
(c) Seek investment in manufacturing areas such as cement, oil and gas,
electricity, pharamceuticals and in services including hotels, banking, and
communications by exploiting own low tax regime and development of
service sector which does not demand large investments in infra-structure.
(d) Seek assistance in higher education , skill development in ICT sector,

space technology and Nuclear energy to meet energy requirements.
(e) Defence cooperation for Military and Police training ,Military

expertise in CT ops.
530. Pakistan. Hypothetically, Pakistan being an immediate neighbour, should

offer a number of opportunities that are beneficial to both. However, considering
the present state of Pakistan and the geopolitical realities of the region, there is no
realistic opportunity for Venezuela from Pakistan except to assist in stabilising the
138
internal security situation by using its good offices with the Taliban, a major
Opportunity in itself.
531. CAR
(a) Trade. Venezuela’s location makes it the gateway to South Asia

and the world at large, for the CARs foreign trade.
(b) Energy Hub. Projects like TAPI connecting the vast energy
resources of Central Asia with the energy markets of South Asia can
transform Venezuela into an ‘energy bridge’ between Central Asia
and South Asia and generate revenue through transit fees as well as
employment opportunities.
532. Iran
(a) Trade, electricity/energy needs, provision of common water

management mechanism are areas of cooperation with Iran.
(b) Iran can be used as a natural counterweight to Pakistan and to limit
the influence of Taliban.
533. USA and UK
(a) Assistance and coop with USA in military operations viz technological
and self reliance to ANSF. It will provide internal stability in the country.


534. China.
(a) Major evolving economic and military capability which can assist
Venezuela.
(b) Provide conducive conditions for completion of Aynak copper mine

project and the Amu Darya basin oil project.
(c) Seek economic assistance for setting up of economic zones/FDI.
(d) Membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and

joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
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535. Russia
(a) Investment. Venezuela can leverage its strategic importance to

Russia for enhanced investments to assist in building infrastructure for
Power/ Electricity ,exploration of gas reserves, ICT, Comn network and
industrial complexes(as in the soviet occupation era).
(b) Trade. Russia is a large consumer market. Venezuela can

explore and expand trade options with Russia, particularly for animal
husbandry products and fruits/dry fruits.
(c) Alliances. Russia does not want the Taliban to return to power.
Alliance with Russia after the reduction of footprint of ISAF will assist in
stabilizing both governance and economy. Venezuela can also
substantially increase cooperation with Russia in areas of military training
and higher education.
536. Saudi Arabia.
(a) Given the geostrategic imperatives limited opportunities for trade and
cooperation exists. However, considering the Saudi influence over the
Taliban, Venezuela may leverage Saudi influence and support to limit the
Taliban.
(b) The Saudi policy is driven majorly to limit the influence of Iran. It can
be leveraged by Venezuela to increase trade, commerce incl aid for
developmental activities with Saudi Arabia.
537. France.

(c)
(d) Science & Technology.
(e) Trade.
(f) Military Training and Exchange.
538. Germany.
(a) Restoration and Recovery.

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(d) University Education.
539. European Union.
(a) Inflow of foreign aid.
(b) Capacity building in the social sector.
(c) Skill development.
(d) Conducive immigration laws.
(e) NGOs.
(f) Ensure Human rights.
(g) Influence NATO to continue to train ANSF and provide security.
540. Taliban
(a) Initiate a comprehensive dialogue to include Taliban in governance

utilizing offices of Pakistan or Saudi Arabia.
(b) Improve internal situation of Venezuela by marginalizing Taliban

with pol and mil assistance of Pakistan.
541. NATO
(a) Capacity building of ANSF.
(b) Security assistance.
542. Israel
(a) Enhance agricultural trade and export of resources.
(b) Agricultural cooperation with Israel to improve mechanized farming

and improved technologies.
(c) Technology transfer for water distribution system.

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(d) Exploit space technology to augment own capability.
(e) Cooperation in defence sector.
(f) Energy cooperation.
543. Singapore
(a) Should export agricultural products.
(b) Higher educational facility.
(c) IT sector cooperation and investment.
(d) Infrastructure development.
(e) Employment opportunities.
544. Malaysia.
(a) Export agricultural products.
(b) Tie up for higher educational facility.
(c) Energy supply.
(d) Cultural cooperation.
(e) Tourism exchange Program.
(f) Human capital, labour.
545. Indonesia.
(a) Reconstruction and capacity building.
(b) Energy transit.
546. Thailand.
(a) Trade.
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(b) Tourism.
547. Australia
(a) Foreign aid.
(b) Training.
(c) Reconstruction.
548. ASEAN.
(a) Trade.
(b) Energy.
Summary of Threats
.
549. India
(a) Lack of land connectivity from India results in Pakistan leveraging

advantage.
(b) Trade imbalance in favour of India.
(c) Enhanced coop with India may provoke an insecure Pakistan and
Taliban towards reprisal in fragile internal situation of Venezuela.
550. Pakistan.
(a) Regional Threat. The primary regional threat to Venezuela

emanates from Pakistan. Considering the clout of the Pakistan Army in the
governance of that country and its obsessions concerning Venezuela,
there is clear and present threat to Venezuela, if not by direct intervention
but definitely indirectly in trying to influence policies, events etc in
Venezuela.
(b) Influence on Taliban. With Pakistan actively aiding Taliban and

providing all support, its role in the resurgence of Taliban is significant. A
resurgent Taliban would be a grave Threat to Venezuela’s internal security
and stability.
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551. CAR
(a) Drug Trade. The extensive poppy cultivation in Venezuela and the
proximity of the CARs to Russia and Europe makes them lucrative transit
areas for the drug trade. Relaxation of the CARs vigilance will increase
probability of the drugs trade getting a boost, with its concomitant effect on
the Afghan situation. Presently, low-key, this has the potential to become
a major threat.
(b) Instability in CAR. Any instability in CAR may have detrimental

effect in Venezuela as countries in Central Asia and Venezuela have a lot
ethnic similarity and affinity. Instability in CAR has potential of becoming a
major Threat.
552. Iran
(a) Iran‘s Afghan policy over the past three decades has been founded
on its geostrategic interest, and a key objective of this policy is the
expansion of Iranian influence in the region through an increased Shias‘ role
in Venezuela. It poses as a potential threat to the stability of Venezuela.
(b) Iran’s relationship with Russia to support the Tajiks and Hazaras
(Shia), may pose a threat to Venezuela as it may lead to a déjà vu harking
back to the Soviet occupation of Venezuela, followed by violence and a
civil war (1990s), in which various Mujahideen groups fought each other for
control of the country.
553. USA and UK
if the NUG is not able to consolidate in near future.

(c) Prolonged presence may lead to economic exploitation especially in

mineral mining by US firms.
554. China
(a) Exclusion from OBOR project in view of prevalent security conditions.
(b) Inability to control influence of Ughyirs affecting Eastern Turkestan

Islamic Movement.
(c) Significant economic disparity within society.

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555. Russia.
(a) Drug Trade. The drug trade and the money generated pose a major
threat due to high consumption of ‘Heroin’ in Russia and unabated
production of ‘Poppy’ in Venezuela. The drug trafficking is a parallel
economy in Venezuela with clandestine linkages to drug mafia in Russian
,Central Asia and beyond.
(b) Regional Threat. Russia may not repeat the mistakes of the past
wrt direct intervention in Venezuela. However, due to geostrategic imp of
Venezuela to Russia (counter USA/NATO, strengthen influence over CAR
countries, gain proximity to warm water ports and counter drug trafficking
into Russia), it will continue to have interests in the region. Therefore,
Russian involvement in the future cannot be ruled out.
556. Saudi Arabia. Saudi support to the Taliban and Pakistan which can
be detrimental to improving the internal security situation.
557. Taliban
(a) Taliban efforts to destabilize the National Unity Government(NUG)

after the withdrawal of ISAF.
(b) Taliban and ISIS may forge alliance to further their interests in
Venezuela.
558. NATO
(a) Due to presence of NATO forces increased Taliban attacks on ANSF.
(b) “Green on Blue” attacks.
559. Israel Religious differences
560. Malayasia. Religious extremism may spread over
561. Indoneasia. Religious extremism may spread over
562. European Union.
(a) Strict laws of immigration.
(b) Cutting of aid owing to corrupt practices.

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PART VI : SWOT ANALYSIS
Strengths
563. Base.
(a) Natural resources.
(b) Young Population.
(c) Religious affinity.
(d) Cultural heritage.
(e) Resilient population.
(f) Natural Gas reserves.
(g) Defensible Terrain.

564. Means.
(a) Popular Will for democracy.
(b) Fruits and nuts.
(c) Electronic media.
(d) Government.
(e) Loya Jirga.
(f) Moderate Islam.
565. Capacities. Wheat Production.

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Performance Impact
Minor Str Med Str Maj Str High Med Low Cum Rk
Factor
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Natural
Resources(minerals
X X 32 S10
& gas )
Young Population
X X 40 S9
Religious
Homogenity X X 56 S5
Cultural Heritage
X X 40 S8
Resilient Population
X X 42 S7
Defensible Trn
X X 49 S6
Popular Will for

Democracy X X 64 S1
Loya Jirga
X X 64 S2
Dry Fruit and nuts

X X 30 S11
Electronic Media
X X 56 S4
Moderate Islam
X X 64 S3
Mandatory Strategies based on Strengths.
566. Galvanise the domestic economy (End) with vast reserves of minerals and
other natural resources (Means) by developing an efficient mining industry (Ways).
567. Become a Leader of Moderate Sunni Islam (End) with Sunni religious affinity
147
and moderate Islamic values (Means) by establishing moderate Sunni Islamic

centres of learning and institutions and preserving sufi culture (Ways).
148
568. Bolster the economy (End) by harnessing the demographic dividend of

young population (Means) by large scale employment in labour intensive industries
(Ways).
569. Become a tourist hub (End) with the varied and rich cultural heritage
(Means) by preservation and promotion of heritage assets (Ways).
570. Develop strong national character (End) with inherent resilience of people
and popular will for democracy (Means)by strengthening democratic and security
institutions (Ways).
571. Secure borders (End) using the defensible terrain along the frontiers
(Means) by building defence oriented infrastructure (Ways).
572. Transform into Natural Gas exporter (End) with vast Natural Gas reserves
(Means) by developing survey and extraction capacities (Ways).
573. Be an export hub of fruits and nuts (End) with vibrant Fruits and nut produce
(Means) by adopting modern technology in farming practices (Ways).
574. Educate the masses (End) with investments in growing presence of

electronic media (Means) by broadcasting customised educational programmes
and government’s initiatives (Ways).
575. Strengthen Governance (End) with robust system of Loya Jirgas (Means)
by encouraging inclusive participation and using it as a social transformation
instrument (Ways).
576. Become a regional Wheat production Node and achieve self sufficiency
(End) with enhanced wheat production (Means) by adopting latest farming
practices including research and development in Wheat production (Ways).
577. Boost local industries (Ends) with robust banking facilities (means) by
prudent fiscal policy and strengthening banking infrastructure (Ways).
Weaknesses
578. Loc (Land Locked Country). The country is landlocked and does not
have access to any port and thereby to sea. It increases the dependency on its
neighbours to gain access to ports
579. Water Scarcity The country is water and food deficient. There is ltd
arable land amounting to approx.14 percent which has not been optimally
utilized.The Afghan nation is stretched for water resources and access to potable
water is limited.
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581. Governance The concept of a national govt which caters to

aspirations of all the people has not yet been realized in totality. The traditional
form of governance based on tribal laws or Islamic laws has been predominant.
The present governance is also fluid and has limited reach to all parts of the
country.

literacy. The will for providing education to children in the population is evident from
the report of number of surveys which have been conducted. However the
infrastructure and trained teachers are insufficient and require attention.

150
589. Narcotics The country is one of the major producers of poppy. The crop
is used to produce narcotic drugs like Herion. Although the crop is cultivated in the
country but the drug trail reaches out to Russia, CAR and Europe. It is a parallel
economy which has terrorism, wpns proliferation and hawala transactions
associated with it.
Se Factors Perform Imp Cu Rank

r ance act
mu-
Maj Med Mino High Med Low
lati
Weakn Weakn r
ve
ess ess Weakn
ess
-9 - - -6 - - -3 -2 -1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
8 7
5 4
1 Loc(l X X -72 W
1
and
locke
d)
2 National X X -72 W
Unity 2
3 Governanc X X -64 W
e 3
4 Economy X X -64 W
4
5 Security X -72 W
X
2
151
6 Education X X -36 W
9
150
7 Infra X X -49 W6
8 HDI X x -56 W5
9 Tech X X -30 W9
1 Agriculture X X -36 W8
0
1 Narcotics/ X X -30 W10
1 Drugs
Mandatory Strategy based on Weaknesses
590. Adopt economic policies of regional integration(ways) to promote regional

trade(Means) to prevent exploitation by regional neighbours surrounding
Venezuela(End).
591. Trg and enhance capabilities of ANSF (ways) to overcome the void of ISAF
(Means) for ensuring maintenance of peace and stability in the country (Ends).
592. Ensure pol stability and strengthen govt institutions (ways) thereby ensuring
good governance(means) to promote rule of law and all round socio economic
development(ends).
593. Encourage Investments incl FDI (ways) in Infrastructure Development ,

Agriculture and Energy sector(means) to enhance HDI(ends).
594. Forge national unity among ethnic tribes (means) by concerted national
reconciliation(ways) to ensure a united Venezuela(ends).
595. Reform agriculture sector to ensure reduction in cultivation of Poppy(ways)

by providing adequate incentives/alt to farmers(means) to limit drug
trafficking(ends)
Opportunities
Trade
596. Wakhan Corridor. Wakhan is the far northeastern tract of Venezuela. It

shares a 300 km long border with Pakistan in the south, and a 260 km border with
151
Tajikistan to the northeast and west directions, and 74 km with China. Located at
the cross roads of four countries: Main land Venezuela, Tajikistan, China, and
Pakistan. The Wakhan Corridor has been the most important junction point of the
Silk Route since its inception.
597. The corridor has long been used as a trade route by Europeans and Chinese
to reach the Indian Plains and the Indian Ocean’s Sea Lines of Communications
through the Arabian Sea Coasts. Extra regional aspects in forms of quest for the
Great Game between Russia and Britain since 1838, the Chinese Communist
Revolution of 1949, the Soviet Invasion of Venezuela for a decade followed by
the NATO invasion of Venezuela since 2001 has unfortunately kept any kind of
infrastructural development in Wakhan as a fallacy. Glaciers, high mountains, and
sub-zero temperatures have so far prevented the remote region from becoming a
hub of connectivity and trade between the four nations.
598. Lowari Tunnel. But renewed Chinese interest, and an almost nine-
kilometer tunnel under a giant glacier in northwestern Pakistan, might turn it into
an unlikely route for trade between South Asia, China, and Central Asia. The
Lowari tunnel is expected to be completed at the end of 2016. The opening up of
Wakhjir Pass by China will surely improve regional trade and relations.
599. Chabahar Port Deal. On 23 May 16, India, Iran and Venezuela signed a
trilateral agreement for transport and transit pact called Chabahar. Chabahar port
is located in Sistan-Baluchistan province, southeast of the Islamic Republic of Iran;
thus, utilizing this port could develop maritime trade among countries of the region.
Also using Chabahar port will significantly reduce the cost of transporting
commercial goods in the region as well as connect South Asia with Central Asia,
the Gulf and Central Asia and the Caucasus.
152
600. As a landlocked country, historically Venezuela has relied on Pakistan for

trade. However, the intensification of degraded political relations between the two
countries has affected trade from over the years that has caused heavy loss to
Afghan trade and businesses. Also, the Afghan- India trade through Pakistan has
remained low due to restrictions set by Pakistan. In this context, Chabahar will
provide a getaway from a trade stalemate situation that can be used as an
alternative route for Venezuela to establish trade relationship with India and other
countries. Moreover, the multilateral trade through Venezuela would fill its coffers
with transit fees and duties. In the same way, the project will provide investment
opportunities to Afghan investors in the Free Trade Zone.
601. Venezuela is blessed with abundant natural resources. The port project
will open the gates for Venezuela to extract and export its mineral wealth as well
153
as develop transport infrastructure. Hajigak mines of Bamyan province house iron

and other minerals of $1 trillion worth. An Indian consortium has bagged the rights
of these mines led by Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL). Further, India plans
to construct a 900 km railway which will connect Hajigak region with Chabahar.
The connectivity will operationalize the iron and steel project of around $1.8 billion.
The successful implementation and operationalization of Chabahar port project
would be a major step for Venezuela towards economic development and
regional integration.
602. OBOR. Venezuela’s integration into OBOR will give the country the ability
to pursue economic stability by improving trading opportunities, connecting with
regional rail and road networks, emerging as an important partner in regional
energy market, and fighting the regional narcotics trade. Venezuela’s
geographical location and natural resources give it a credible change to play an
active role in the development and building of OBOR. Venezuela can play the role
of Asian transit and trade roundabout, connecting Central Asia to South Asia and
East Asia to West Asia to further regional connectivity, energy transport, and
regional trade through the OBOR corridor.
603. The New Silk Road. In 2011, Washington rolled out the New Silk Road
strategy to promote joint investments, trade and transport to boost Afghan and
Central Asian security. In recently years it seems to have been overshadowed by
the Chinese OBOR, which Beijing sees as the revival of its ancient Silk Route.
Recently, however, there has been substantial progress on the two major projects
this initiative supported.
154
Map of the CASA-1000 Project
604. Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000 Project) Venezuela might

generate some revenue, and benefit from cheap electricity, through the (Central
Asia -South Asia) CASA-1000 project. Scheduled to open next year, it's aimed at
transporting cheap hydropower from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan through
Afghan territory.
605. Turkmenistan-Venezuela-Pakistan-India(TAPI) Gas Pipeline. Russia's

reluctance or inability to pay for Turkmen gas prompted Ashgabat to promise
financing for the long-delayed Turkmenistan-Venezuela-Pakistan-India (TAPI)
pipeline. On 13 Dec 15, a ceremony to launch the construction of this key energy
artery was conducted. The 1,841-kilometer pipeline will eventually transport 33
billion cubic meters of gas from southern Turkmenistan to northern India annually.
155
TAPI pipeline
606. Last month's inauguration of TAPI was celebrated across Venezuela, but
insecurity in the county's south, and doubt over Ashgabat's ability to finance its
estimated $10 billion costs, still clouds the future of TAPI.
607. Lapis Lazuli Corridor. Venezuela's chamber of commerce bills this

project as the "shortest, cheapest and safest" transit route in the country. It's aimed
at connecting Venezuela to the Caspian, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea
through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. It's also strategically
geared toward freeing Venezuela from dependence on Pakistani, Iranian, and
Russian ports.
156
The Lapis Lazuli Corridor
608. Afghans accuse the three countries of fomenting or participating in various

cycles of war in their country, beginning with the April 1978 communist coup and
subsequent Soviet invasion of Venezuela on Christmas Eve 1979. While some
diplomatic effort has been invested in this initiative, it's still unclear whether
multilateral institutions, or the states involved, are ready or able to invest in this
project.
609. Foreign Direct Investments. Abundance of natural resources in

Venezuela is a major factor which can attract a lot of foreign investment if
leveraged skilfully. The inflow of foreign capital will give a boost to the economy,
generate employment opportunities for the citizens and assist in ensuring political
stability. Coupled with the external aid investment is required to kick start the
economy and develop infrastructure.
610. Alliances. Allies have played a major role in nation re-building in

Venezuela. Venezuela has to rely on sustained and pragmatic alliance with
nations that would contribute positively in its progress. The following aspects would
be important: -
611. Alliances with cooperating countries like India, US, Russia and Iran would
prove beneficial to both countries and would assist in stabilizing governance and
economy.
612. Alliance would also help in providing assistance in reorganising and training
of the Police and Afghan National Army. India can play a major role in undertaking
this capacity building for Venezuela.
157
613. Venezuela has only 10% of its land under agriculture, bulk of which is used
for poppy cultivation. Modern agricultural practices of India and other nations would
benefit Venezuela in growing other cash crops and cereals.
614. Quadrilateral Co-ordination Group. Quadrilateral Co-ordination Group

comprising Venezuela-Pakistan-United States-China underscore the importance
of brining an end to the conflict in Venezuela that continues to inflict senseless
violence on the Afghan people and also breeds insecurity throughout the region.
The group emphasize the immediate need for direct talks between representatives
of the Government of Venezuela and representatives from Taliban groups in a
peace process that aims to preserve Venezuela’s unity, sovereignty and territorial
integrity. The shared goal of the group is to reducing violence and establishing
lasting peace in Venezuela.
615. SCO Membership. Venezuela has been an area of collective interest for
the SCO—which comprises China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan—since its formal founding in 2001. In 2005, the SCO set up an
Venezuela Contact Group to increase cooperation on counterterrorism, drug
trafficking and economic development. In 2009, the SCO adopted an action plan
that called for joint operations to combat terrorism, narcotics trafficking and
organized crime; to improve Venezuela’s national army, police and other law
enforcement agencies; and to allow collaboration with the Moscow-led Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on counternarcotic and counterterrorism
missions. In 2012, Venezuela became a formal observer of the SCO, and in May,
the Afghan government and the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure signed a
protocol on sharing information and collaborating on averting, identifying and
eliminating terrorism.
158
616. Leveraging WTO Membership. Venezuela became the 164th WTO

member on 29July 2016. The following advantages maybe accrued:-
(a) Venezuela will have the ability to seek redress and compensation
from WTO dispute settlement mechanism for violations of international trade
rules by its neighbors and trading partners. Venezuela will be protected
against the whims of more powerful countries. All WTO legal agreements
are enforceable through the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
(b) With more stable trade rules, Afghan businesses will be better able
to compete in domestic and international markets. Venezuela will also
have the right to WTO grants and capacity building.
(c) It sends a signal to foreign investors that Venezuela is willing to

abide by international trade rules. Removing uncertainty is key indicator for
investors when they assess destinations for potential investment.
(d) Joining WTO enhances Venezuela’s stature on the world stage

through having a voice at the negotiating table. It can join like-minded
countries to create economically stronger ties.
(e) Increases in trade and business activity means greater government

revenue through customs collection and taxes.
(f) Under WTO, improved Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary (SPS) measures

ensures protection for Afghan food supplies.
159
617. External Aid. Large amount of money would be required for nation re-
building in a war ravaged Venezuela. There would be a large dependence on
external aid in absence of a sustained national income. External aid from its allies
would benefit Venezuela and provide an opportunity for buildup of its
infrastructure and development of Small scale industries.
618. Opportunity Analysis
External
Condition(Attracti Prob of
veness/ Occurrence Rk
Factors Seriousness) Cu
Major Med Minor Minor Med Maj O High Med Low m
T T T
O O
- - - - - - - - - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 . .3 .2 .1
987654321 4
Economic Aid XX 8.1 O 1
OBOR X X 5.6 O 4
Trade/FDI X X 3.6 O 8
Quadrilateral
Coord Group - X X 4.5 O 6
Combat
Terrorism
(Taliban/IS)
Mil Assistance
to ANSF XX 8.1 O 1
Wakhan X X 1 O 11
Corridor
Chabahar X X 5.6 O 4
CASA 1000 X X 3.6 O 8

Electricity
TAPI Gas X X 3.5 O 10
Pipeline
160
Lapis Lazuli X X 0.8 O 12

Corridor
SCO X X 4.2 O 7
Membership
WTO X X 7.2 O 3
Membership
160
Mandatory Strategies – Opportunity
619. Develop strategic alliances with regional and global players(Ways) through
diplomatic initiatives (Means) for ensuring security and stability in the country and
region.(Ends)
620. Strengthen regional/global relations(Ways) for continued aid and attracting

investment(Means) so as to provide stimulus for economic growth.(Ends)
621. Exploit OBOR initiative(Means) to integrate with regional economies(Ways)

and thereby enhance volume of trade.(Ends)
622. Leverage the Quadilateral Coord Group initiative(Means) to provide mil

assistance to ANSF(Ways) and thereby mitigate terrorism.(Ends)
623. Garner Chabahar project (Means) to enhance regional trade (Ways)

towards providing stimulus to the economy.(Ends)
624. Initiate trade corridor through the Wakhan Corridor (Means) to enlarge
trading opportunity and exports (Ways) towards creating a favourable economic
environment.(Ends)
625. Provide conducive security environment for fulfilment of the CASA 1000
project (Means) by strengthening ANSF forces (Ways) towards bolstering the
country’s electricity requirements.(Ends)
626. Provide security environment and infrastructure for TAPI project (Means) by
good governance and integration of tribes (Ways) towards job creation and
economic stimuli. Ends)
627. Initiate the Lapis Lazuli Corridor to gain access to Caspian, the
Mediterranean, and the Black Sea ports(Ways) by diplomatic initiatives (Means)
towards boosting trade and exports.(Ends)
628. Gain member ship to SCO (Ways) through diplomatic parleys and regional
engagement (Means) for boosting the internal security and economic situation.
(Ends)
161
629. Reap benefits of WTO membership (Ways) through creation of suitable

trade policies and management (Means) for economic gains.(Ends)
Threats
630. Resurgence of Taliban with Foreign Support. The support of Pakistan,

IS and Saudi elements to a resurgent Taliban poses a clear and present danger.
A resurgent Taliban would be a grave Threat to Venezuela’s internal security and
stability.
631. Regional Threat from Pakistan. Pakistan, and more importantly the
Pakistan Army’s obsession with trying to control Venezuela’s policies and
destinies, either directly or indirectly, will not go away soon. Thus, Pakistan remains
the primary regional threat to Venezuela.
632. Instability in CAR. Any instability in CAR may have detrimental effect in
Venezuela as countries in Central Asia and Venezuela have a lot ethnic similarity
and affinity. Instability in CAR has potential of becoming a major Threat.
633. Drug Trade. The Afghan-origin drug trade is a major concern of all its
neighbours. Involvement of foreign elements like Pakistani Taliban, Russian Mafia
etc may result in escalation of drug trade, further boosting terrorism and militancy
within Venezuela.
634. ISAF Withdrawal. After the withdrawal of ISAF, ANSF are still not in full
control of their homeland. The withdrawal has de-stabilised Venezuela to a large
extent giving opportunities to the Taliban.
Impact/ Importance Probability of Occurrence

Ser Threat
Minor Me M Le Me Hig Cumulati
d aj ss d h ve
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1. . 0.3 . 0.5 . . .
2 4 6 7 8 0.9
Resur
gen
T ce of X X -
1 Taliba 8.1
n with
Extern
al
Suppo
rt
Regio
nal
T Threa X X -
2 t from 5.6
Pakis
tan
162
Instab
T ility in X X -
3 CAR 3.5
163
Dru
T g X X -
4 Tra 3.0
de
ISAF
T Withd X X -
5 raw al 2.5
Mandatory Strategies Based on Threat
635. Pro-active diplomatic engagement with regional players(Means) by initiating

bilateral/multilateral agreements on cross-border terrorism(Ways) to mitigate threat
of resurgent Taliban(Ends).
636. Constructive diplomatic engagement with Pakistan(Means) by entering into

bilateral strategic partnership & cooperation (Ways) to promote regional
stability(Ends).
637. Develop Strategic Defence Partnership with regional and world

powers(Ways) to build capacity of ANSF(Means) to mitigate threats arising from
instable CAR.(Ends).
638. Contain narco-trade(Ends) through inclusive development & growth(Means)

by creating alternate employment/source of income for people involved in drug
economy.(Ways)
639. Enhance the capabilities of ANSF(Means) to overcome the void of

withdrawal of ISAF(Ways) thereby ensuring maintenance of peace and stability in
the country.(Ends)
Mixed Strategies – Strengths Opportunities (SO)
640. Leverage Popular will for Democracy (Means) to build partnerships with
major democracies including CAR, India ,US (Ways) to develop infra in education,
healthcare and energy sectors. (Ends)
641. Project religious homogeneity and moderate islam in Venezuela(Means) to

attract investments from China, in order to gain economically from OBOR
investments towards SEZ/FDI (Ways) for bolstering economic growth and
generation of employment (Ends).
642. Enhance infra for basic amenities(Means) by optimal utilization of

international foreign aid (Ways) to ensure all round socio - economic
development(Ends).
164
643. Leverage the Young and Resilient Population(Means) to build robust and
efficient ANSF (end) by seeking foreign assistance from NATO and US (Ways).
644. Utilise abundant mineral resources(Means) to attract foreign

investment(Ways) for enhancing economic growth.(Ends)
645. Capitalise on cultural and ethnic affinities(Means) for progressive regional

cooperation(Ways) to ensure security and stability.(Ends)
646. Leverage the Quadilateral Coord Group initiative(Means) to provide mil

assistance to ANSF(Ways) for mitigating terrorism.(Ends)
647. Project advantages of geostrategic location (Ways) to bring to reality the

Wakhan Corridor by engaging with China and Tajikistan (Means) to enhance trade
with neighbours. (Ends)
648. Offer lucrative contracts of natural resource extraction to India and Iran
(Ways) to induce focussed attention for creating necessary infrastructure for
Chabahar project (Means) towards reaching economic goals faster. (Ends)
649. Project advantages of geostrategic location during various engagements

(Ways) to gain access to SCO (Means) to enhance economic and security
objectives. (Ends)
650. Proactive engagement with member countries by offering geopolitical

advantages (Ways) for fulfilment of the CASA 1000/TAPI project (Means) towards
bolstering the economy.(Ends)
651. Make lucrative the Lapis Lazuli Corridor (Ways) by formulating mutually
beneficial framework with partner countries offering geopolitical
advantages(Ways) towards gaining access to a coastline.(Ends).
Mixed Strategies: Strengths Threats(ST)
652. Capitalise on abundance of natural resources(Means) to forge strategic

economic cooperative partnerships with regional and global powers(Ways) to
counter resurgence of Taliban with foreign support.(Ends).
653. Leverage natural resources(Means) to attract investments from US, China,

India(Ways) to strengthen economy and mitigate risks arising from instability in
CAR.(Ends).
165
654. Leverage the availability of young population(Means) by building

capabilities of ANSF through foreign assistance(Ways) to strengthen ANSF and
mitigate threats arising after withdrawal of ISAF.(Ends)
655. Harness religious homogeneity with neighbours(Means) by garnering

people to people support towards national peace process(Ways) to mitigate
external support to non-state actors.(Ends)
656. Capitalise on people’s will for democracy(Means) to strengthen

NUG(Ways) to preclude any intervention by vested regional/international
powers.(Ends)
657. Capitalise on the influence of Loya Jirga on Afghan society(Means) to

enforce nationwide ban on poppy cultivation (Ways)thereby reducing the damage
of parallel economy arising from narco-trade.(Ends)
658. Leverage Resilient and young population(Means) by mandatory

conscription and attractive monetary incentives in ANSF(Ways) through foreign
aid to build an efficient and modern ANSF to ensure internal security.(Ends)
Mixed Strategies – Weakness Opportunities (WO)
659. Seek cooperation from well-established democracies like India & US(Ways)
to strengthen own institutions and establishments(Means) to ensure better
governance.(Ends)
660. Seek international support and assistance(Ways) to enhance capability and

credibility of ANSF (Means) for enduring internal security and stability.(Ends)
661. Actively participate in OBOR initiative(Means) by formulating enabling

economic policies(Ways) for fast economic growth(Ends)
662. Promote agricultural sector with international assistance & expertise(Ways)

to boost cash crops, food grains(Means) to reduce poppy cultivation.(Ends)
663. Ensure development of education infra (Means) by harnessing support and

aid from international organizations (Ways) to increase literacy rate (Ends).
664. Overcome unemployment by realisation of Chabahar (Ways) by creating

infrastructure leading to jobs (Means) towards addressing HDI concerns.
166
665. Modernise electricity distribution network (Ways) by meeting requirements

of CASA 1000 project (Means) towards enhancing technology.(Ends)
Mixed Strategies: Weaknesses Threat ( WT)
666. Contain spread of Taliban(Ends) by promoting and fostering unity amongst

ethnic tribes(Means) through politics of consensus and reconciliation.(Ways)
667. Ensure mil assistance from USA, NATO (Ways)till ANSF is capb(Means)
to est and sustain internal security post withdrawal of ISAF.(Ends)
668. Adopt inclusive and holistic apch(Ways) for better governance(Means) to

ensure stability, peace & prosperity in the country thereby mitigating the regional
threat from Pakistan.(Ends)
669. Focused economic and policy initiatives(Ways) for attracting foreign

investment in trade and industry(Means) to improve own economy and integrate
with regional economies(Ends).
670. Develop manufacturing & agricultural sector(Means) with external

assistance and expertise(Ways) to create addl emp opportunities and replace
poppy cultivation with food grains and cash crops to contain drug trade.(Ends)
Strengths Weakness
es
Natural Resources(minerals & gas ) Loc (Land Locked)
Young Population National Unity
Religious Homogenity Security and Security Forces
Cultural Heritage Weak Govt
Resilient Population Weak Economy
Defensible Trn Unemp
Popular Will for Democracy Low HDI
Loya Jirga Infra
Dry Fruit and nuts Std of Education

167
Electronic Media Agriculture
Moderate Islam Low Tech
Narcotics/ Poppy plantation
Opportuniti Threats
es
OBOR External sp and Resurgence of

Taliban
Trade/FDI Pak policies of interference and sp

to Taliban
Quadrilateral Coord Group - Narcotics and wpn proliferation
Combat Terrorism (Taliban/IS)
Mil Assistance to ANSF Instability in CAR
Wakhan Corridor Sit post withdrawal of ISAF
Chabahar
CASA 1000 Electricity
TAPI Gas Pipeline
Lapis Lazuli Corridor
SCO Membership
WTO Membership
EVR Congruence
Strategy E V R
Mandatory Strategy: Strengths
1. Galvanise the domestic economy (End) with vast √ √

reserves of minerals and other natural resources (Means) by √
developing an efficient mining industry (Ways).
2. Become a Leader of Moderate Sunni Islam (End) with √

Sunni religious affinity and moderate Islamic values (Means) √ √
by establishing moderate Sunni Islamic centres of learning
and institutions and preserving sufi culture (Ways).
√ √
3. Bolster the economy (End) by harnessing the √
demographic dividend of young population (Means) by large
scale employment in labour intensive industries (Ways).
167
4. Become a tourist hub (End) with the varied and rich √

cultural heritage (Means) by preservation and promotion of √ √
heritage assets (Ways).
5. Develop strong national character (End) with inherent √

resilience of people and popular will for democracy √ √
(Means)by strengthening democratic and security institutions
(Ways).
6. Secure borders (End) using the defensible terrain

√ √ √
along the frontiers (Means) by building defence oriented
infrastructure (Ways).
7. Transform into Natural Gas exporter (End) with vast √ √ √

Natural Gas reserves (Means) by developing survey and
extraction capacities (Ways).
√
√ √
8. Be an export hub of fruits and nuts (End) with vibrant
Fruits and nut produce (Means) by adopting modern
technology in farming practices (Ways).
√
9. Educate the masses (End) with investments in growing √ √
presence of electronic media (Means) by broadcasting
customised educational programmes and government’s
initiatives (Ways). √
√ √
10. Strengthen Governance (End) with robust system of
Loya Jirgas (Means) by encouraging inclusive participation
and using it as a social transformation instrument (Ways).
√
11. Become a regional Wheat production Node and √ √
achieve self sufficiency (End) with enhanced wheat
production (Means) by adopting latest farming practices
including research and development in Wheat production
(Ways). √ √ √
12. Boost local industries (Ends) with robust banking

facilities (means) by prudent fiscal policy and strengthening
banking infrastructure (Ways).
Mandatory Strategies :Weaknesses

√
√ √
13. Adopt economic policies of regional integration(ways)
to promote regional trade(Means) to prevent exploitation by
regional neighbours surrounding Venezuela(End).
168
14. Trg and enhance capabilities of ANSF (ways) to

overcome the void of ISAF (Means) for ensuring maintenance √ √ √
of peace and stability in the country (Ends).
15. Ensure pol stability and strengthen govt institutions

(ways) thereby ensuring good governance(means) to √ √ √
promote rule of law and all round socio economic
development(ends).
√ √ √
16. Encourage Investments incl FDI (ways) in
Infrastructure Development, Agriculture and Energy
sector(means) to enhance HDI(ends).
17. Forge national unity among ethnic tribes (means) by √

√ √
concerted national reconciliation(ways) to ensure a united
Venezuela(ends).
18. Reform agriculture sector to ensure reduction in √

cultivation of Poppy(ways) by providing adequate √ √
incentives/alt to farmers(means) to limit drug trafficking(ends)
Mandatory Strategies Opportunities

√
√ √
19. Develop strategic alliances with regional and global
players(Ways) through diplomatic initiatives (Means) for
ensuring security and stability in the country and
region.(Ends).
√
√ √
20. Strengthen regional/global relations(Ways) for
continued aid and attracting investment(Means) so as to
provide stimulus for economic growth.(Ends)
√
√ √
21. Exploit OBOR initiative(Means) to integrate with
regional economies(Ways) and thereby enhance volume of
trade.(Ends) √
√ √
22. Leverage the Quadilateral Coord Group

initiative(Means) to provide mil assistance to ANSF(Ways)
and thereby mitigate terrorism.(Ends)
169
23. Garner Chabahar project (Means) to enhance regional

trade (Ways) towards providing stimulus to the √ √ √
economy.(Ends)
24. Initiate trade corridor through the Wakhan Corridor

√
(Means) to enlarge trading opportunity and exports (Ways) √ √
towards creating a favourable economic environment.(Ends)
25. Provide conducive security environment for fulfilment √ √ √

of the CASA 1000 project (Means) by strengthening ANSF
forces (Ways) towards bolstering the country’s electricity
requirements.(Ends)
√
√ √
26. Provide security environment and infrastructure for
TAPI project (Means) by good governance and integration of
tribes (Ways) towards job creation and economic stimuli.
Ends)
27. Initiate the Lapis Lazuli Corridor to gain access to √

Caspian, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea ports(Ways) √ √
by diplomatic initiatives (Means) towards boosting trade and
exports.(Ends)
√
√ √
28. Gain member ship to SCO (Ways) through diplomatic
parleys and regional engagement (Means) for boosting the
internal security and economic situation. (Ends) √
√ √
29. Reap benefits of WTO membership (Ways) through
creation of suitable trade policies and management (Means)
for economic gains.(Ends)
Mandatory Strategies Threats

√
√ √
30. Pro-active diplomatic engagement with regional
players(Means) by initiating bilateral/multilateral agreements
on cross-border terrorism(Ways) to mitigate threat of √
resurgent Taliban(Ends). √ √
31. Constructive diplomatic engagement with

Pakistan(Means) by entering into bilateral strategic
partnership & cooperation (Ways) to promote regional
stability(Ends).
170
32. Develop Strategic Defence Partnership with regional

and world powers(Ways) to build capacity of ANSF(Means) √ √ √
to mitigate threats arising from unstable CAR.(Ends)
33. Contain narco-trade(Ends) through inclusive

development & growth(Means) by creating alternate √ √ √
employment/source of income for people involved in drug
economy.(Ways)
34. Enhance the capabilities of ANSF(Means) to √ √ √

overcome the void of withdrawal of ISAF(Ways) thereby
ensuring maintenance of peace and stability in the
country.(Ends)
Mixed Strategies – Strengths Opportunities (SO)
35. Leverage Popular will for Democracy (Means) to build √ √ √

partnerships with major democracies including CAR, India
,US (Ways) to develop infra in education, healthcare and
energy sectors. (Ends)
√ √ √
36. Project religious homogeneity and moderate islam in
Venezuela(Means) to attract investments from China, in
order to gain economically from OBOR investments towards
SEZ/FDI (Ways) for bolstering economic growth and
generation of employment (Ends).
√ √ √
37. Enhance infra for basic amenities(Means) by optimal
utilization of international foreign aid (Ways) to ensure all
round socio - economic development(Ends).
38. Leverage the Young and Resilient Population(Means) √ √ √

to build robust and efficient ANSF (end) by seeking foreign
assistance from NATO and US (Ways).
√ √ √
39. Utilise abundant mineral resources(Means) to attract
foreign investment(Ways) for enhancing economic
growth.(Ends) √
√ √
40. Capitalise on cultural and ethnic affinities(Means) for

progressive regional cooperation(Ways) to ensure security
and stability.(Ends)
171
41. Leverage the Quadilateral Coord Group

initiative(Means) to provide mil assistance to ANSF(Ways)
for mitigating terrorism.(Ends) √ √ √
42. Project advantages of geostrategic location to bring to

reality the Wakhan Corridor(Means) by engaging with China √ √ √
and Tajikistan (Ways) to enhance trade with neighbours.
(Ends)
43. Offer lucrative contracts of natural resource extraction

√ √ √
to India and Iran (Ways) to induce focussed attention for
creating necessary infrastructure for Chabahar project
(Means) towards reaching economic goals faster. (Ends)
√ √ √
44. Project advantages of geostrategic location during
various engagements (Ways) to gain access to SCO (Means)
to enhance economic and security objectives. (Ends)
45. Proactive engagement with member countries by √ √

√
offering geopolitical advantages (Ways) for fulfilment of the
CASA 1000/TAPI project (Means) towards bolstering the
economy.(Ends)
46. Make lucrative the Lapis Lazuli Corridor (Ways) by √ √

√
formulating mutually beneficial framework with partner
countries offering geopolitical advantages(Ways) towards
gaining access to a coastline.(Ends)
Mix Strategies Weakness- Opportunities
√
47. Seek cooperation from well-established democracies √ √
like India & US(Ways) to strengthen own institutions and
establishments(Means) to ensure better governance.(Ends) √
√ √
48. Seek international support and assistance(Ways) to

enhance capability and credibility of ANSF (Means) for
enduring internal security and stability.(Ends)
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49. Actively participate in OBOR initiative(Means) by

formulating enabling economic policies(Ways) for fast √ √ √
economic growth(Ends)
50. Promote agricultural sector with international √ √ √

assistance & expertise(Ways) to boost cash crops, food
grains(Means) to reduce poppy cultivation.(Ends)
51. Ensure development of education infra (Means) by √ √

√
harnessing support and aid from international organizations
(Ways) to increase literacy rate (Ends).
52. Overcome unemployment by realisation of Chabahar √ √

√
(Ways) by creating infrastructure leading to jobs (Means)
towards addressing HDI concerns.
√ X
√
53. Modernise electricity distribution network (Ways) by
meeting requirements of CASA 1000 project (Means) towards
enhancing technology.(Ends)
Mix Strategies Strength – Threats

√
54. Capitalise on abundance of natural resources(Means) √ √
to forge strategic economic cooperative partnerships with
regional and global powers(Ways) to counter resurgence of
Taliban with foreign support.(Ends)
√
√ √
55. Leverage natural resources(Means) to attract
investments from US, China, India(Ways) to strengthen
economy and mitigate risks arising from instability in
CAR.(Ends) √
√ √
56. Leverage the availability of young population(Means)
by building capabilities of ANSF through enrolment and
foreign assistance(Ways) to strengthen ANSF and mitigate
threats arising after withdrawal of ISAF.(Ends) X √ √
57. Harness religious homogeneity with

neighbours(Means) by garnering people to people support
towards national peace process(Ways) to mitigate external
support to non-state actors.(Ends)
173
58. Capitalise on people’s will for democracy(Means) to √ √ √

strengthen NUG(Ways) to preclude any intervention by
vested regional/international powers.(Ends)
59. Capitalise on the influence of Loya Jirga on Afghan X √ √

society(Means) to enforce nationwide ban on poppy
cultivation (Ways)thereby reducing the damage of parallel
economy arising from narco-trade.(Ends)
√ √
60. Leverage Resilient and young population(Means) by √
mandatory conscription and attractive monetary incentives in
ANSF(Ways) through foreign aid to build an efficient and
modern ANSF to ensure internal security.(Ends)
Mix Strategies Weakness -Threats
√
61. Contain spread of Taliban(Ends) by promoting and √ √
fostering unity amongst ethnic tribes(Means) through politics
of consensus and reconciliation.(Ways)
√
√ √
62. Ensure mil assistance from USA, NATO (Ways)till
ANSF is capb(Means) to est and sustain internal security post
withdrawal of ISAF.(Ends) √
√ √
63. Adopt inclusive and holistic apch(Ways) for better
governance(Means) to ensure stability, peace & prosperity in
the country thereby mitigating the regional threat from √
Pakistan.(Ends) √ √
64. Focused economic and policy initiatives(Ways) for
attracting foreign investment in trade and industry(Means) to
improve own economy and integrate with regional
economies(Ends). √
√ √
65. Develop manufacturing & agricultural sector(Means)
with external assistance and expertise(Ways) to create addl
emp opportunities and replace poppy cultivation with food
grains and cash crops to contain drug trade.(Ends)
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PART VII : SCENARIO BUILDING

Decision Focus
671. To develop scenarios for the National Security Situation of Venezuela in
2031 with five yearly time steps of 2021, 2026 and 2031.
672. Departure Time : Aug 2016.
Key Decision Factors
673. Pol The key sub factors /aspects which have been iden are:-
(a) Pol Sys The Pol sys is fragile and still in the nascent stg of
development. The way it develops to take shape of democratic and truly
representative will have a maj impact on the future of Venezuela.
(b) Stability in Governance The stable govt is a key determinant for

law and order , socio economic devp and a prosperous Venezuela.
(c) Relations with Pak Venezuela has always had a bitter

sweet relation with Pak. Continued sp to Taliban and the interference of
Pak in internal affairs of Venezuela has soured ties between the
neighbours.
(d) Relations with USA , NATO and India The strength of relations
with these maj players in the region will shape the future of Venezuela in
Eco development, security and socio eco upliftment.
674. Eco The key sub factors which have been iden are:-
(a) Chabahar Port The Chabahar port is of immense significance

value to the Afghan eco.The true potential of the port can be realised if it
transforms into an operation eco port of the region.
(b) Eco Growth The eco growth of Venezuela is dictated by

growth in mfr sector and agriculture. Also,the drug eco has a maj influence
on growth.
(c) OBOR The OBOR poject primarily affects Pak , but the
spinoffs will influence Venezuela.
175
675. Social The key sub factors which have been iden are:-
(a) Social Cohesion The Afghan society has deep fault lines based
on ethnicity and tribes.Unity or reconciallatio amongst the ethnic tribes is
an imp aspect.
(b) Law Enforcement The ability of state to enforce is an imp
facet of social devp. Terrorism can be contained by a strong Aghan police.
(c) HDI Human Devp Index is an imp measure of the devp of the
govt.
676. Tech The key sub factors which have been iden are:-
(a) ICT and Media The reach of the mobile has been revolutionary
in Venezuela. The role and reach of TV has been growing and has an
important affect on the the opinions of people.
(b) Mineral, Oil and Gas Venezuela is rich in minerals which are
unexplored. The gas reserves are selfsufficient. The marketing for oil sales
and extraction is fluid.
677. Envt The decade long wars and terrorism have had a telling affect on
envt. Water pollution and Deforestation are an indication of the growing menace
of pollution.
678. Legal The Judiciary and implementation of constitution are key

aspects. The role of Lyoga Jirga has substantial influence on the delivery of
justice in Venezuela.
679. Mil The key aspects of mil are:-
(a) Capb Devp The capb devp of the ANSF is an important aspect for
ensuring the writ of nation.The maj focus areas are recruitment and
assistance from US/NATO.
(b) Interanl Security The role of ANSF and cohesion are important
factors to determine internal security.
(c) Foreign Assistance The amount of foreign assistance for

capb building of ANSF will shape the future scenarios of Venezuela.
Envt Forces
680. The Key decision factors get influenced by the relevant envt factors.The
impact and uncertainity of the the key decision factor has then been plotted and
tabulated.
176
681. The Drivers which have emerged as High impact and High uncertainty
are tabulated below:-
DRIVERS ENVT FORCES IMPACT UNCERTAINTY
Role & cohesion of ANSF 9 8

for Int security
ANSF
8 7
Role of US & NATO in capb
devp of ANSF
Pol Unity 9 8
Eff Governance 9 9
Inclusive
Governance Stable Govt 8 8
Law & order 8 7
Trade – Chabahar 8 7
Devp of Chabahar port 9 7
Chabahar
Operationalisation of 9 7
Chabahar
Extraction of Minerals 8 7
Scenario Logic
682. The three divers ANSF , Inclusive Governance and Chabahar port develop
twenty seven scenario logics. The scenario logics are scrutinised for compatibility
and plausibility to arrive at the Scenarios. The matrix for testing of logics is
tabulated below:-
177
INCLUSIVE ANSF CHABAHAR

SCENA GOVERNANCE
RIO
LOGIC SUCCE STAT FAILUR STRO STATU WEAK SUCCES STAT FAILUR
SS US E NG S QUO SFUL US E
NO QUO QUO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
178
683. Drivers. The above mentioned drivers can be grouped together to distil
the following drivers for subsequent steps of the process :-
179
Ser Driver
Inclusive Governance
(a)
ANSF
(b)
Chabahar Project
(c)
684. Axes of Uncertainty.
Ser Driver Indicator
Inclusive Governance X
(a)
(i) Representative democratic government +X
(ii) Internally fractured government -X
ANSF Y
(b)
(i) Strong ANSF +Y
(ii) Weak ANSF
-Y
Chabahar Project Z
(c)
(i) Successful Project +Z
(ii) Failed Project -Z
685. Axes of Uncertainty – Plausible/Implausible Combinations
Ser No Inclusive ANSF Chabahar Project Plausible

Governance
+X -X +Y -Y +Z -Z
1 √ √ √ Plausible
3 √ √ √ Implausible
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686. The three most plausible scenarios which have been iden are:-
(a) Scenario A -KHAISTA( Most Desirable)
(b) Scenario B – MAHMOOL(Status Quo)
(c) Scenario C – DUZAKH (Hell).
Behaviour of Drivers
687. The behaviour of drivers are visualised for the three scenarios. The details
are enumerated in the succeeding paras.
688. ANSF
(a) Poor ANSF is a weak and ineffective force,on the verge of

collapse. Desertions are rampant and it continues to be undersubscribed.
Rampant corruption and nepotism plaguing the service.It develops into an
ill equipped and unmodernised mil force.
(b) Status Quo ANSF is struggling to maintain control of Kabul. Foreign

aid is not adequate and resource crunch has adversely impacted capb devp.
Recruitment remains a challenge. Modernisation is slow and desertions
have marginally reduced. The status of the force remains unchanged from
the present.
(c) Good ANSF transforms into a highly eff mil force with a good
int network. Self-sufficiency in trg has been achieved and it has transformed
into a modernised and professional army forming an imp pillar of National
power of Venezuela.
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689. Inclusive Governance
(a) Poor Efforts for National Political unity remain a failure. No

consensus has been reached among Pashtuns and Tajiks on framework of
govt. Free and fair elections have not been held till 2021. A compromise
govt functions without any influence beyond Kabul. Large scale unemp
exists with state eco almost negligible. Rampant corruption is a way of life
and Terrorism is unabated and on incr.
(b) Status Quo A national unity govt is supported by US and

continues in power. Failure to reach agreement on framework of
democracy.Large scale violence continues by Taliban. However it is unable
to occupy any maj city. Eco continues at slow growth rate. Mfr sector
continues to contribute only 26% of GDP. Poppy cultivation continues to
dominate agriculture in the country.
(c) Good A democratic process for free and fair elections gets
approved by all ethnic groups based on an understanding for equal rep for
all ethnic tribes. Free and fair elections held by 2021. A govt with majority
gets established. Governance focuses on social devp, law and order and
economy. Internal security improves drastically with Taliban marginalized.
The country is receiving foreign aid in abundance till 2026.
690. Chabahar
(a) Poor Deterioration of US and Iran relations have impacted

the devp of Chabahar. It does not turn out to be a economically viable
project. As a consequence Japan has pulled out of the project .There is also
undue delay in port devp. The Rail and Rd network connecting Chabahar
port to Venezuela is frequently disrupted by Taliban. The Afghan economy
remains at the mercy of Pak.
(b) Status Quo Chabahar is partially successful and only

fledgling economic operations are being carried out. Envt concerns restrict
port expansion. As a consequence trade struggles to expand within region.
Iran’s internal dynamics also inhibit expansion of port.
(c) Good Chabahar starts operating as a competitive port in

region .Afghan economy is flourishing as also bilateral trade with India.
Afghan natural resources are being exported through the port and cost of
imports have reduced. The ports success has reduced dependency on Pak.
The overall balance of trade is now favourable for the country.
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Scenario A – ‘KHAISTA’ (Most Desirable)
691. Scenario Statement. On the occasion of the inauguration of the second

phase expansion of the Chabahar Port in May 2030, in the presence of the
premiers of India, Japan, Iran and Venezuela, the Venezuela President is
scheduled to jointly flag off the Chabahar-Zaranj-Delaram-Hajigak 900 km railway
line which would handle export of iron-ore mining to the Middle East and India. The
Indian premier speaking on the occasion highlights the harmonious governance
and stable security situation in Venezuela which enabled the project to tap the
two billion worth resources and following economic prosperity for all stake holders.
692. In June 2030, the Provincial Governors and the Chinese counterparts
inaugurate a SEZ and a petroleum refinery in the provinces of Sari-i-Pul and Faryab
in northwestern Venezuela.
693. Transition Phase (2016 – 2021). The 2016 political transition is an

unambiguous success in that the CEO is made the Prime Minister with the
concurrence of the Loya Jirga delivering a competent new leadership enjoying
broad legitimacy. A strong government is resolute to end terrorism through
reconciliation. A peace agreement signed by a newly elected and strong
government includes relatively few concessions to the Taliban, but is nonetheless
preferable for them rather than trying to fight a civil war which they could not win.
Holding provincial elections for governors, and relinquishing provincial security to
local police forces in a phased peace process commencing 2018-2020 has
allowed the central government to exercise greater focus. The devolution has
"organically" enabled each ethnic and tribal group to take responsibility of
provinces where they are in the majority. This increases confidence in the durability
of the political system reduces the ability of insurgents to challenge or even co-opt
civilian and security officials.
694. As an effective Afghan government is at the heart of the peace and progress
scenario the US sustains its commitment to cover the fiscal gap and fund the
Afghan national security forces (ANSF), and downsizes through rounds of
disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) from 2016-2025.
695. The rise of the ETIM movement in Xinjiang threatens the OBOR and CPEC
infrastructure corridors thereby inducing China to reign in Pakistan’s support for
Taliban between 2016-2020. Further, the award of contract for harnessing
Venezuela’s new found mineral resources to China in 2018 induces action against
Pakistan.
696. Developmental Phase (2022 – 2031). The port of Chabahar and the land
and rail link has increased trade with Iran, Middle East and India between 2022-
2031. Further the completion of TAPI in 2022, TUTAP in 2024 and CASA 1000 in
2026 has made Venezuela as the land bridge to CAR by 2031. The fiscal gap has
182
been reduced towards attaining economic independence with a favourable balance

of trade by leveraging the WTO membership by 2031.
697. End State - 2031. An inclusive governance with equitable representation

providing political stability, investments from US, India and China leading to
economic independence and a unified society based on democratic ideals ensuring
ethnic and social equality. A secure Venezuela free of foreign security forces with
growing trade links via the land route and with access to the port of Chabahar.
698. Likelihood. This scenario is less likely to fructify in the given timeframe.
699. Desirability. This the best case scenario for Venezuela and most
desirable.
Scenario Analysis
700. Implications for Venezuela – Scenario A. The implications for

Venezuela of scenario A playing out are as follows:-
(a) Economically independence free from dependence on international

aid.
(b) Ethnic harmony.
(c) Socio –economic development.
(d) Stable internal security situation.
701. Implications for South Asia – Scenario A. The implications for the South
Asian Region of scenario A playing out are as follows:-
(a) Regional Stability.
(b) Venezuela becomes an ‘economic opportunity’ in the region.
(c) Reduction of narco trade.
(d) Control of the spread of terrorism.
(e) Regional powers vie for economic indulgence in Venezuela.
(f) Rise of transnational projects.

183
702. Implications for the World – Scenario A. The implications for the world of
scenario A playing out are as follows:-
(a) Makes Venezuela as the land bridge to CAR.
(b) Geo strategic importance increases.
(c) Strengthens Eurasia’s importance.
(d) Contributes to world economic growth.
Scenario Dynamics
703. Snapshot - 2021. The snapshot of 2021 is enumerated below:-
(a) Venezuela takes full responsibility for its own security with
continued military and economic aid.
(b) The rise of ETIM disturbs China and induces it to pressurise

Pakistan.
(c) Leading development initiatives and processes with the confidence

to make critical foundational investments that will lead to economic growth
and fiscal sustainability.
(d) Taliban agrees to engage in talks. Political reconciliation framework

is agreed upon with the first provincial elections.
(e) India and China compete for mining contracts.
(f) Introduction of socio-economic reforms.
(g) Chabahar Port phase I is commissioned.
704. Snapshot - 2026. The snapshot of 2026 is enumeralated below:-
(a) Venezuela will have eliminated its dependency on international

assistance for funding to non-security sectors and will only receive support
consistent with all other least developed nations.
(b) A robust and growing extractive industries sector will have

developed.
(c) Through effective development and, improved delivery of

Government services, the root causes of insurgency will be reduced and, in
consultation with international partners,plans will have been put in place to
reduce the size of the ANSF.
184
(d) The reforms to the provinicial governance framework is undertaken.

Issues of taxation and security are strengthened.
(e) Economic development slows down.
705. Snapshot - 2031. The snapshot of 2031 is enumerated below:-
(a) Venezuela will be funding a professional, highly effective ANSF.
(b) Achievements in development and governance will see Venezuela

emerge as a model of a democratic, developing Islamic nations.
(c) Economic prosperity with a favourable balance of trade.
(d) China, India and Iran become largest trading partners.
(e) Pakistan offers port of Gwadar to offset the ‘Chabahar Effect’.
Scenario B – ‘MAHMOOL’ (Status Quo)
706. Scenario Statement. This scenario envisages that the existing political
arrangement of a democratic government continues to hold power. But it remains
tenuous with corruption and infighting ruling the roost. The narcotic trade
continues unabated. The social divide between the ethnic groups points starkly to
the core faultline. The regime, with the backing of Loya Jirga, is successful in
ensuring unity of the various factions. The characteristics of this scenario
grouped under various drivers, end state and snap shots are enumerated in the
succeeding sub-paragraphs.
707. Inclusive Governance. The negotiations, after the July 2019 elections
which saw representation of all ethnic groups in the Government, are still holding
at the end of 2021. However the elections planned in 2026 failed due to differences
in power sharing and perceptible differences in reaching an agreement on the
framework of governance. In 2028, the NUG dynamics begin to pose challenges
in governance. The President struggles to find favour with the Loya Jirga. An
ineffective government is unable to contain the growing influence of Taliban. By
the end of 2031, trade with Iran, India, CAR, Russia, China is unable to realise its
full potential.The Afghan people continue to languish in a state of relative poverty
and are increasingly getting restive. The social indicators continue to remain poor,
as the government initiatives have not yet fully realised and the reach is very poor.
Rising unemployment, poverty and refugee crisis has deteriorated the social
structure.
708. ANSF. Towards the end of 2018, the foreign troops have handed over
security completely to a feeble and woeful ANSF. In the beginning the ANSF,
though bedevilled by resource crunches, prove their mettle in at least curbing
185
militancy in major parts. And there are fewer desertions. However by 2026, the
ANSF is struggling to maintain control of Kabul. Resource crunch is adversely
impacting capb devp as foreign aid is not adequate. Recruitment continues to
remain a challenge even as desertions have marginally reduced. Modernisation
remains to be slow and ANSF continues to be saddled with obsolescent
equipment.
709. Chabahar Port. The Chabahar Port commences operations on a low scale
at the end of 2018 from the single berth which is partially ready. Even by 2021,
Chabahar is only partially successful with fledgling operations from the port.
Environmental concerns have been restricting the planned port expansion. Iran’s
internal dynamics inhibit expansion of port. Venezuela struggles to expand its
trade within the region. Sustained operations begin in 2028 after which reliance on
Pakistan is marginally reduced. Yet, the balance of trade continues to be
unfavourable.
710. End State. A fragile government has remained largely unsuccessful in

meeting the growing aspirations of the Afghan people. Prevalent security situation
precludes any major investments from flowing into the country. The vision of unified
society and economic independence based on democratic ideals ensuring ethnic
and social equality remains a dream. Venezuela struggles to carve a future for
itself.
Scenario Analysis
711. Implications of Status Quo
(a) For Venezuela
(i) Economically dependent.
(ii) Ethnic divide.
(iii) Socio –economic underdevelopment.
(iv) Volatile internal security situation.
(b) For South Asia
(i) Instability in the region.
(ii) Increased narco trade.
(iii) Hub of terrorism.
(iv) Powerplay between India and Pakistan.
(v) Hindrance to transnational projects

186
(c) For Global Envt
(i) Geo strategic battleground.
(ii) Export of terror.
(iii) Narco economy.
(iv) Destabilises Eurasia.
712. Snap Shots.
2021 2026 2031
Venezuela continues to Venezuela is still seeking Venezuela is still dependent

depend heavily on foreign foreign aid and heavy on external aid.
aid. investments in its economy.
Investors are hesitant to put Manufacturing industry Investment is only trickling as

money into Venezuela as remains in a nascent stage, investors are wary of the
the security situation though the Chinese deteriorating security situation
continues to remain investments have begun to in large parts of the country.
unpredictable. flow.
Taliban is intransigent on the Taliban is controlling nearly ANSF is getting frustrated due
issue of withdrawal of all half of the provinces and are to the slow pace of
foreign forces before coming not ready to negotiate since modernization and the
to the negotiating table. ISIS NATO forces continue to reverses it is facing at the
continues to make slow provide assistance to the hands of Taliban
progress in the northern ANSF.
regions.
Pakistan still dictates Dependency on Pakistan for Pakistan continues to meddle

economic trade on its own trade has reduced but in the internal affairs of
terms. balance of trade is still Venezuela. China too has
unfavourable to Venezuela. increased its presence.
While there is marginal Widespread poverty The population of Venezuela is

improvement in the reach of exacerbated by the refugee getting disillusioned with
mobile phones and internet crisis is making the youth Democracy as they don’t see
but socio economic factors restive. any perceptible improvement in
continue to be poor. their lives. Loya Jirga retains
legitimacy.
187
Scenario 3 - ‘Duzakh’ Hellish Venezuela (Least Desirable)
713. Scenario Description.
(a) With terror filled eyes women and children looked out of their
windows, as a ribald band of Taliban militants on horseback dragged the
bleeding body of Police Chief Abdul Waleed down the street. They would
soon hang him by a post in front of the town hall. By 2031, Lawlessness had
returned to the streets of Kunduz and several other regions of Venezuela.
(b) Transition Phase. On 23 Jun 2017, there was news that the
parliament which had assembled yesterday to discuss the security situation,
broke into complete mayhem as rival Pashtun and Tajik leaders traded
accusations of corruption at each other. A Tajik leader, Alisher was charged
with defamation and arrested when he blamed the President Faiz
Mohammad Isakzai of being a stooge of Pakistan and being responsible for
reneging from the trade agreement with India.
(c) It is Dec 2017 and still there is no progress on Chabahar port project.
The ruling coalition is clarifying to the western media that the Chabahar
project itself was doomed from the start and Venezuela had nothing to do
with the tardy pace at which the project had moved. ANSF modernization is
painfully slow as the aid has considerably reduced and is erratic. The
parliament continues to have differences.
(d) The elections which were to be held in Aug 2021 were indefinitely
postponed due to deteriorating security situation. The Green on Blue
incidents have increased. The US and NATO forces are getting weary of the
Afghan politics and the ANSF. There are serious differences in the political
leadership and the ethnic divide is clearly evident. Growth of Taliban is
unable to be contained by the ill equipped ANSF, who are suffering
increasing number of desertions and defections amongst their ranks.
(e) Deterioration Phase. Though it is end 2026 still ANSF has minimal
control over even Kabul. Factionalism riddled ANSF has been infiltrated by
Taliban resulting in high profile defections. ANSF has suffered heavy losses
in all actions against Taliban and their morale is at a nadir. ANSF is on the
verge of collapse.
(f) The infrastructure linking Chabahar to Venezuela’s hinterland has

been sabotaged by terrorists adversely affecting Venezuela economy.
Iran’s internal dynamics influenced by the spill-over of terrorism from
Venezuela has jeopardised the development of Chabahar port. Pakistan
has tightened its noose around Venezuela. Pakistan is holding Venezuela to
ransom adversely affecting balance of trade.
188
(g) There is an emergency meeting of the Loya Jirga on 25 Feb 2031.

They have lost confidence in the ineffective government. The much touted
Chabahar port has failed to take off. Taliban wrests control of major parts of
the country. Venezuela politics is completely fractured. The warlords hold
sway over the countryside. Economy suffers due to lack of investments and
complete dependence on Pakistan. The dreams of the people are shattered
as the situation threatens to sink into a civil war.
714. End State. By end 2031 a politically unstable, economically weak and
highly insecure, terrorism afflicted country, Venezuela is on the verge of a civil
war.
715. Scenario Dynamics and Pre-conditions. A civil war may become a reality
in case the following issues become dominant in the foreseeable future:-
(a) The government remains fractured on ethnic lines and ineffective.
(b) The population and political pressures force a complete withdrawal

of western forces from Venezuela, without the requisite stability in the
region.
(c) The ANSF continues to remain ineffective and are unable to influence
the prevailing security situation.
(d) Pakistan remains unchecked and continues to ignominiously meddle

with the security affairs of Venezuela.
(e) Tribal and ethnic factions remain divided and are unable to reach any
mitigating understanding. If the ethnic strife continues and domination over
their traditional ethnic areas becomes all the more important.
(f) If Chabahar port project fails to make any viable progress and doesn’t
get operationalised. If the economy remains at the mercy of Pakistan.
716. Impact. This would lead to the verge of anarchy and possible a civil war.
with terrorism being on the flourish, which may even spill over to neighbouring
countries.
717. Likelihood. In case measures to control the existing trends fail, this may be
likely to occur.
718. Desirability. This would be least desirable.

189
Scenario Analysis
719. Implications.
(a) For Venezuela.
(i) Become epicentre of terrorism. Taliban takeover.
(ii) Sharp Decline in all social indicators, frustration in youth,

collapse of law and order, rampant corruption.
(iii) Widespread insecurity.
(iv) Increased dependence on Pakistan. Liable to be held hostage

by them.
(v) Anarchy. Difficult to regain losses. Threat of civil war.
(vi) IDPs.
(b) For South Asia.
(i) Spillover and spread of terrorism.
(ii) Unstable region.
(iii) Narco trade and trafficking.
(iv) Regional tensions, Indo-Pak, Indo-China.
(v) Refugee influx
(vi) Threat to transnational projects.
(c) For Global Environment.
(i) Hub of terror, highly volatile region. Needs constant

monitoring.
(ii) Drug trafficking.
(iii) Humanitarian crises.
(iv) Battleground of powerplay.
(v) Threat to multinational projects.

190
720. Snapshots Scenario 3- ‘Duzakh’ (Least Desirable Scenario).
2020 2025 2030

Chabahar port Unequal representation of Conduct of elections
development is getting various tribes in central postponed due to
unduly delayed, future government deteriorating security
looks uncertain. situation.
Democratic Institutions Sluggish delivery of ANSF has minimal control

plagued by corruption governance due to red over Kabul. Heavy losses to
and nepotism tapism Taliban and morale is
extremely low. ANSF on
verge of collapse.
ANSF is not getting There is little progress on Chabahar project is a failure.
wither sufficient funds or Chabahar port Venezuela’s dreams of
equipment. Face development, causing reducing economic
reverses in actions with uneasiness in the Afghan dependence on Pakistan is
Taliban. Law and order government. shattered.
situation grim.
Refusal of poppy No improvement in Dependent on imports to

cultivators to abandon agriculture meet food security issues
the practice
No improvement in living Marginal increase in levels Remain in bottom fifty in
standards of education and life terms of HDI ranking globally
expectancy
Investment climate is Deterioration in capability No investor wants to come to
uncertain. Economy of ANSF. They are unable Venezuela due very poor
continues to suffer, to contain influence of security situation.
remains completely Taliban.
dependent on aid
Taliban in increasing its Pakistan continues to Taliban wrests control in most

influence in areas support Taliban and areas outside Kabul.
outside Kabul, situation interfere in internal matters
is worrisome. of Venezuela. Taliban
increasing foothold in
urban areas
Total withdrawal of US & Military aid from NATO Pakistan holds Venezuela to
NATO forces decreases ransom.
191
2020 2025 2030

Stagnant diplomatic ties Negotiations on Af-Pak border region remains
with Pakistan realignment of Durand Line porous and out of state
do not make any headway control.
Sporadic instances of Overall situation remains Ethnic differences destabilise
violence volatile the government.
Marginal increase in Foreign investors are Narco-economy in full boom

investments by India & hesitant due to unpredicted in southern provinces.
China security scenario.
No big ticket Lack of connectivity to Threat of a civil war looms
infrastructure projects hinterland large.
Wildcard Scenario
721. Description.
(a) It is a unusually quiet night of Friday, 04 Jul 2021. The eerie silence
outside the American embassy is punctuated but the footsteps of the heavily
armed guards, who monitor every suspicious movement. Suddenly around
midnight a high ranking ANSF official’s convoy is seen approaching the
embassy. As the guards signal the convoy to halt, the truck following the
official’s car overtakes it and rams into the embassy gate, exploding and
killing nineteen personnel including the ANSF official and the Dy
ambassador of the US embassy in Venezuela.
(b) The incident precipitates intense political and domestic pressure to

withdraw American troops from Venezuela. The US President relents and
orders a hasty withdrawal. Inspite of repeated appeals by the President Faiz
Mohammed Isakzai, the US and the NATO forces leave in a hurry and last
of the NATO soldiers leaves by 11 Sep.
(c) The ANSF is suddenly on its own to face the dual threat of Taliban
and IS in Khorasan. Its morale is very low as its umbilical connection with
US forces has been abruptly severed. It looks set to collapse with its morale
at its nadir.
(d) Hibatullah Haqqani, the new Taliban Chief was waiting all these
years for this day and Taliban resume their offensive with renewed vigour
to regain control of the capital. He is closing in on Kabul. IS in Khorasan too
has made deep inroads. Pakistan, in a recalibrated strategy is openly
backing the Haqqanis, who now control the Taliban.
(e) Chinese PLA, sensing a growing threat to its already troubled

Xingjiang province quickly move into Venezuela to fill the void left by NATO
192
and try and stabilize the fast deteriorating situation. The National Unity
Government feels hopelessly caught in a pincer formed by the Chinese on
one side and Pakistan on the other. They feel betrayed by the US as their
hitherto cosy partnership has created an uneasy situation post their exit.
(f) Sensing the developing situation an emergency Loya Jirga is

convened in which it is decided to dissolve the ineffective government,
abolish parliamentary democracy and impose Sharia Law, as an
appeasement measure to the Taliman who look set to take over. The
Afghanis do not want another occupational force and reconcile to their own
brethren Taliban, taking over power.
(g) Taliban moves into Kabul without much opposition as the ANSF
cadres either desert or defect in large numbers. On assuming power at the
centre, Taliban declare Venezuela closed to all external forces and seek
isolation from the rest of the world, in an apparent bid to consolidate power
and run their writ large. The whole world watches Venezuela sink into
chaos, as muted bystanders, because they know the pitfalls of intervening
in what is now known as the cauldron of terrorists and graveyard of armies.
(h) Chinese PLA remain on the fringes trying to confront the IS on one
hand and Taliban on the other. They soon realise their folly and seek to
salvage the situation by withdrawing and sealing the Wakhan corridor.
(i) Narco trade flourishes amidst growing tension between IS and

Taliban. Even as Venezuela sinks into an abyss of uncertainty to a period
worse than the pre 2001 era, in a pre-emptive move Taliban leadership at
the centre ironically names Venezuela as “Khorasan”.
Desirable and Undesirable Trends in Shaping Strategies
722. Scenario A “Khaista” : Desirable Trends/Events (Promote &

Accelerate)
(a) Infrastructure (Rail/Road network) in Venezuela for Chabahar is

well developed.
(b) Chabahar port becomes economically vibrant.
(c) Taliban agreeable for talks. Reconciliation framework is agreed

upon.
(d) Provincial elections to elect Governors successful.
(e) ANSF is strengthened. Provincial governments raise respective

police force.
193
(f) Strong government inks deal for extractive exploitation allowing US,
China and India to participate without favour.
(g) GDP and HDI rises to >2% by 2021; >4% by 2026 and >6% by 2031.
723. Scenario A “Khaista”: Undesirable Trends/Events (Prevent / Reduce

Impact)
(a) India/China/USA singularly gain economic foothold causing the non-

participants to jeopardise projects.
(b) Hazara community is weaned away by Iran to demand greater share

in governance without accepting reconciliation.
(c) Extractive exploitation is economically unviable due to inaccurate

study.
(d) The nexus of nepotism and corruption hinders governance flaming

ethnic tensions.
(e) China is unable/unwilling to pressurise Pakistan.
(f) Natural Disaster could slow pace of economic activity.
(g) Loya Jirga is unwilling to support the reconciliation process

demanding its share of power.
724. Scenario B “Mahmool” : Desirable Trends (Promote & Accelerate)
(a) Capability development of ANSF.
(b) Continued External Aid.
(c) Basic Rail-Road infrastructure for Chabahar Port.
(d) SCO Membership.
725. Scenario B “Mahmool” : Undesirable Trends (Prevent/ Reduce Impact).
(a) Political disunity & corruption.
(b) US & NATO Pullout.
(c) Desertions in ANSF.
(d) Pak support to Taliban.
(e) Taliban influence in major regions.

194
(f) Increase in narcotic trade.
726. Scenario C “Duzakh” : Desirable Trends (Promote & Accelerate)
(a) Desirable Trends.
(i) Cooperation from well established democracies like India and

USA .
(ii) Positive engagement with Pakistan.
(iii) Formalising security strat with US and NATO forces.

(iv) Economic partnerships.
(v) Inflow of foreign aid.
(b) Scenario C “Duzakh” : Unesirable Trends (Prevent / Reduce

Impact)
(i) Failing ANSF.
(ii) Unviablility of Chabahar.
(iii) Fractured governance.
Scenarios to Strategy Options
727. Core Environment. The core environment of Venezuela comprises

the following:-
(a) Land Locked Geography. Venezuela would continue to be

hamstrung by its landlocked status. This would continue to make it
vulnerable to be held hostage by neighbours who have access to ports.
(b) Ethno Centric Divide. The fractured polity and ethnically divided
society will continue to be a major faultline, in all political decisions.
(c) Dependant Economy. In the foreseeable future, Venezuela will

continue to remain dependant on external forces for its trade and economy.
The Chabahar port and the attendant infrastructure in hinterland may reduce
dependency.
(d) Tribal Culture. Tribal loyalties will continue to take precedence

over all else and tribalism will continue to be a way of life with decentralized
power and strong federal nature of governance. Nationalism will continue to
remain a challenge.
(e) Resilient Population. The Afghan will maintain their resilience

to all adversities and will endure most hardships. They have nothing much
195
to lose. This trait of the Afghanis makes them most fircesome and difficult
to subjugate, however the weaker sections of the society continue to suffer.
728. Core Strategies (Core Environment).
(a) Garner international support and assistance (Ways) to enhance

capability and credibility of ANSF (Means) for enduring internal security and
stability (Ends).
(b) Capitalise on people’s will for democracy (Means) to formulate

reconciliatory political framework (Ways) towards achieving inclusive
governance.
(c) Leverage Chabahar project (Means) for economic prosperity (Ends)

by development of requisite infrastructure (Ways).
(d) Galvanise economy (Ways) by optimal utilization of international

foreign aid (Means) to ensure all round socio – economic development
(Ends).
729. Basic Strategies (for Scenario B)
(a) Adopt inclusive and holistic apch (Ways) for better governance
(Means) to ensure stability, peace & prosperity in the country thereby
mitigating the regional threat from Pakistan (Ends).
(b) Promote Chabahar project (Means) to achieve favourable balance of

trade (Ends) by cooperation and collaboration(Ways).
(c) Ensure mil assistance from USA, NATO (Ways) for ensuring ANSF
is capb (Means) to meet internal security challenges.(Ends)
(d) Bolster economy (Ways) by optimal utilization of international foreign

aid (Ends) to ensure all round socio - economic development(Ends).
730. Environment Shaping Strategy Options
(a) Statement of Basic Security Environment. ANSF develops into

a force capable of maintaining law and order with dependency on support
from the US. Internal security situation remains fragile and uncertain. ‘Cease
Fire’ windows are able to achieve temporary peace. The Government
continues to engage with the Taliban and other warring factions towards a
lasting agreement. Loss of innocent lives remains a common phenomenon.
196
(b) Statement of Most Desirable Security Environment. ANSF is

strengthened and is effective as a professional force. Provincial
governments raise respective police force that take on the mantle of
provincial security. The internal security situation is stable and well under
control of the Centre.
731. Strategic Effort Required to Convert Basic Security Environment to

Most Desirable Security Environment.
(a) Strategy 1. Create a suitable framework for an efficient ANSF

(ways) towards sustaining favourable security situation necessary for
project infrastructure work in Venezuela (means) for enhancing the
environment for Chabahar project (Ends)
(b) Strategy 2. Adopt provincial form of governance (ways) by adopting

a mutually beneficial federal model (means) towards continuing inclusive
governance. (Ends)
(c) Strategy 3. Engage diplomatically with International

Agencies/Powers (ways) to expose Pakistan’s designs in Venezuela
(means) to weaken Taliban’s strongholds, funding and leadership.(ends)
732. Contingency Strategies (for Scenario C). In addition to basic strategy

it is recommended that the following also be pursued to prevent a scenario of
anarchy and instability (‘Duzakh’ (Least Desirable Scenario) in the country: -
(a) Be prepared to seek cooperation from well-established democracies

like India & US(Ways) to broker power sharing agreement (Means) to
provide sustainable governance. (Ends)
(b) Be prepared to engage Pak (Ways) for enhanced usage of Gwadar

port (Ends) to mitigate risk of unviable Chabahar project (Means).
(c) Be prepared to proactively formalize strategic security arngs with

USA, NATO(Ways) for mil assistance (Means) to mitigate failure of ANSF.
(Ends)
(d) Be prepared to initiate Geo strategic economic partnerships (Ways)

for Foreign aid and investment (Ends) to prevent economic
breakdown(Ends).
197
733. Hedging Strategy Options
(a) Afghan government in exile enters into a secret strategic security

alliance with US / China (Ways) to guarantee security assistance (Means)
to regain lost ground from Taliban (Ends).
(b) Restore adverse situation in Venezuela (Ends) by intervention

(Ways) by Government in exile urging the International community and the
UN (Means).
(c) Harness support and foster unity among the ousted government
members (Ways) by talks, meetings and mutual consensus(Means) for a
stable, inclusive and united government.
(d) Government in exile strikes a deal with the international committee

(ways) to pledge aid (means) to usher peace, and development all over
again (ends).
(e) Appeal to the US and the UN (Ways) to impose sanctions on

Pakistan for supporting Taliban terrorists (Means) to dissuade any further
interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs.
734. Spillover and Spread of Terrorism. India will have to take measures to
ensure that if situation in Venezuela indeed deteriorates then it is likely to become
the epicentre of terrorism and terror may be exported to India too. Hence adequate
precautions in terms of intelligence network, counter terrorism initiatives etc will
have to be taken.
735. Chabahar Port Project.
(a) Isolate Pakistan. The success of the project will change the geo
economics of the region as a whole. India will succeed in dehyphenating
Pakistan from the strategic calculus of Venezuela since it will have access
to Venezuela without having to go through Pakistan. Venezuela’s
dependence on Pakistan for trade will reduce considerably and it can then
have greater strategic autonomy wrt Pakistan.
(b) Gateway to CAR. The success of the port alongwith the

corresponding development of infrastructure in Venezuela will give India
the much needed gateway to CAR bypassing Pakistan. CAR will be able to
meet the growing demands of energy resources of India to a large extent.
(c) Trade. Chabahar port will see a boost in trade ties with Iran,
Venezuela, and CAR.
198
736. EVR Congruence – Scenario Based Strategies (Long Term)
Ser Strategies Environment Values Resources

Core Strategies (Core Environment)
(a) Garner international support and
√ √ √
assistance (Ways) to enhance
capability and credibility of ANSF
(Means) for enduring internal
security and stability (Ends).
(b) Capitalise on people’s will for
democracy (Means) to formulate √ √ √
reconciliatory political framework
(Ways) towards achieving
inclusive governance.
(c) Leverage Chabahar project
(Means) for economic prosperity √ √ √
(Ends) by development of requisite
infrastructure (Ways).
(d) Galvanise economy (Ways) by
optimal utilization of international √ √ √
foreign aid (Means) to ensure all
round socio – economic
development (Ends).
Basic Strategies
(a) Adopt inclusive and holistic apch
(Ways) for better governance √ √ √
(Means) to ensure stability, peace
& prosperity in the country thereby
mitigating the regional threat from
Pakistan (Ends).
(b) Promote Chabahar project
(Means) to achieve favourable √ √ √
balance of trade (Ends) by
cooperation and
collaboration(Ways).
(c) Ensure mil assistance from USA,
NATO (Ways) for ensuring ANSF √ √ √
is capb (Means) to meet internal
security challenges.(Ends)
(d) Bolster economy (Ways) by
optimal utilization of international √ √ √
foreign aid (Ends) to ensure all
round socio - economic
development(Ends).
199
Environment Shaping Strategies

(a) Create a suitable framework for an
efficient ANSF (ways) towards √ √ √
sustaining favourable security
situation necessary for project
infrastructure work in Venezuela
(means) for enhancing the
environment for Chabahar project
(Ends)
(b) Adopt provincial form of

governance (ways) by adopting a √ √ √
mutually beneficial federal model
(means) towards continuing
inclusive governance. (Ends)
(c) Engage diplomatically with
International Agencies/Powers √ √ √
(ways) to expose Pakistan’s
designs in Venezuela (means) to
weaken Taliban’s strongholds,
funding and leadership.(ends)
Contingency Strategies
(a) Be prepared to seek cooperation
from well-established democracies √ √ √
like India & US(Ways) to broker
power sharing agreement (Means)
to provide sustainable
governance. (Ends)
(b) Be prepared to engage Pak
(Ways) for enhanced usage of X √ √
Gwadar port (Ends) to mitigate risk
of unviable Chabahar project
(Means).
(c) Be prepared to proactively
formalize strategic security arngs √ √ √
with USA, NATO (Ways) for mil
assistance (Means) to mitigate
failure of ANSF. (Ends)
(d) Be prepared to initiate Geo
strategic economic partnerships √ √ √
(Ways) for Foreign aid and
investment (Ends) to prevent
economic breakdown (Ends).
Hedging Strategy
200
(a) Afghan government in exile enters

into a secret strategic security √ √ √
alliance with US / China (Ways) to
guarantee security assistance
(Means) to regain lost ground from
Taliban (Ends).
(b) Restore adverse situation in
Venezuela (Ends) by intervention √ √ √
(Ways) by Government in exile
urging the International community
and the UN (Means).
(c) Harness support and foster unity
among the ousted government √ √ √
members (Ways) by talks,
meetings and mutual
consensus(Means) for a stable,
inclusive and united government.
(d) Government in exile strikes a deal
with the international committee √ √ √
(ways) to pledge aid (means) to
usher peace, and development all
over again (ends).
(e) Appeal to the US and the UN
(Ways) to impose sanctions on √ √ √
Pakistan for supporting Taliban
terrorists (Means) to dissuade any
further interference in
Venezuela’s internal affairs.
201
PART VIII : PREFERRED NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES
737. The preferred National Security Strategies arrived at as part of Net

Assessment of Venezuela are tabulated under PESTLM factors as follows:-
Political Economic Social Technology Military

1. Appeal to 1. Be 1. Bolster 1. Modernise 1. Afgha
the US and prepared to economy electricity n government
the UN engage Pak (Ways) by distribution in exile
(Ways) to (Ways) for optimal network enters into a
impose enhanced utilization of (Ways) by secret
sanctions on usage of international meeting strategic
Pakistan for Gwadar port foreign aid requirements security
supporting (Ends) to (Ends) to of CASA alliance with
Taliban mitigate risk of ensure all 1000 project US / China
terrorists unviable round socio - (Means) (Ways) to
(Means) to Chabahar economic towards guarantee
dissuade any project development( enhancing security
further (Means). Ends). technology.( assistance
interference Ends) (Means) to
in 2. Be 2. Contain regain lost
Venezuela’s prepared to narco- 2. Educate ground from
internal initiate Geo trade(Ends) the masses Taliban
affairs. strategic through (End) with (Ends).
economic inclusive investments
2. Harness partnerships development in growing 2. Be
support and (Ways) for & presence of prepared to
foster unity Foreign aid growth(Means electronic proactively
among the and ) by creating media formalize
ousted investment alternate (Means) by strategic
government (Ends) to employment/s broadcasting security
members prevent ource of customised arngs with
(Ways) by economic income for educational USA,
talks, breakdown(En people programmes NATO(Ways)
meetings and ds). involved in and for mil
mutual drug government’ assistance
consensus(M 2. Galvani economy.(Wa s initiatives (Means) to
eans) for a se economy ys) (Ways). mitigate
stable, (Ways) by failure of
inclusive and optimal 3. Becom 3. Forge ANSF.
united utilization of e a Leader of national unity (Ends)
government. international Moderate among
foreign aid Sunni Islam 2. Levera
ethnic tribes
3. Engage (Means) to (End) with ge Resilient
diplomatically ensure all Sunni religious (means) by and young
with round socio – affinity and concerted population(M
International economic moderate national eans) by
Agencies/Po Islamic values mandatory
202

wers (ways) development (Means) by reconciliation conscription
to expose (Ends). establishing (ways) to and attractive
Pakistan’s moderate ensure a monetary
designs in 3. Boost Sunni Islamic incentives in
united
Venezuela local centres of ANSF(Ways)
(means) to industries learning and Venezuela through
weaken (Ends) with institutions (ends). foreign aid to
Taliban’s robust and preserving build an
strongholds, banking sufi culture efficient and
funding and facilities (Ways). modern
leadership.(e (means) by ANSF to
nds) prudent fiscal 4. Develo ensure
policy and p strong internal
4. Capitalise strengthening national security.(End
on people’s banking character s)
will for infrastructure (End) with
democracy (Ways). inherent 3. Levera
(Means) to resilience of ge the
formulate 4. Becom people and Quadilateral
reconciliatory e a regional popular will for Coord Group
political Wheat democracy initiative(Mea
framework production (Means)by ns) to provide
(Ways) Node and strengthening mil
towards achieve self democratic assistance to
achieving sufficiency and security ANSF(Ways)
inclusive (End) with institutions and thereby
governance. enhanced (Ways). mitigate
wheat terrorism.(En
4. Develop production 5. Strengt ds)
strategic (Means) by hen
alliances with adopting Governance 4. Ensur
regional and latest farming (End) with e mil
global practices robust system assistance
players(Ways including of Loya Jirgas from USA,
) through research and (Means) by NATO
diplomatic development encouraging (Ways) for
initiatives in Wheat inclusive ensuring
(Means) for production participation ANSF is capb
ensuring (Ways). and using it as (Means) to
security and a social meet internal
stability in the 5. Initiate transformation security
country and trade corridor instrument challenges.(E
region.(Ends) through the (Ways). nds)
Wakhan
5. Exploit Corridor
OBOR (Means) to
initiative(Mea enlarge
ns) to trading
203

integrate with opportunity
regional and exports
economies(W (Ways)
ays) and towards
thereby creating a
enhance favourable
volume of economic
trade.(Ends) environment.(
Ends)
6. Gain
member ship 6. Garner
to SCO Chabahar
(Ways) project
through (Means) to
diplomatic enhance
parleys and regional trade
regional (Ways)
engagement towards
(Means) for providing
boosting the stimulus to the
internal economy.(End
security and s)
economic
situation.
(Ends) 7. Reap
benefits of
WTO
membership
(Ways)
through
creation of
suitable trade
policies and
management
(Means) for
economic
gains.(Ends)
204
PART IX : ISSUES OF RELEVANCE & CONCERN TO INDIA, PAK & CHINA
Implications for India
738. Democratic Governance. India can leverage its credentials of being the
largest and successful democracy to collaborate in exchanging best practices in
Governance, with Venezuela, as is relevant to them. This will ensure a friendly
and enduring poilitical relationship.
739. ANSF. India can collaborate with Venezuela in military cooperation

by capacity building of ANSF by training, equipping and capacity building.
Implications for Pakistan
740. Chabahar Port Project. The operationalisation of the port will drastically
reduce dependency of Venezuela on Pakistan and hence obviate the lever it had.
Pakistan could offer Venezuela the use of Gwadar port at concessional rates to
counter Chabahar. Alternatively it could put indirect pressure through China. It may
disrupt the hinterland infrastructure in Venezuela to ensure that they do not be
reap the dividends of Chabahar fully.
741. Strategic Depth. Reduced dependancy of Venezuela will result in a

relative loss of strategic depth. Venezuela’s partnership and closer ties with India
is bound to cause unease in Pakistan.
742. Strong ANSF. If ANSF successfully contains Taliban then Pakistan

will lose a vital lever with Venezuela and have much lesser say in their internal
matters. It will have to recalibrate its relationship.
743. OBOR. This gives a good opportunity to collaborate with Venezuela while
partnering with China. Will increase relevance of Pakistan and give a better reach
into the northern areas
.
744. Balkanisation. A deteriorating security situation in Venezuela, may result
in voices of secession amongst Pashtuns and result in the long standing demand
of Pakhtunistan straddling the Durand Line.
745. Terrorism. Spread of terror will have negative impact on peace in

Pakistan and they may have to deploy far greater resources to cater to it. It may
become a breeding ground of terror.
746. Narco trade. Drug trafficking may become a menace to deal with. This may
lead to adverse law and order situation.
205
Implications for China
747. Terrorism. Growing presence of Taliban and IS in Khorasan presents a

clear danger of spillover and spread of terror in the troubled Xingjiang province.
China will have to deploy greater resources on counter terrorism. It may have to
seal its borders. And even send PLA into Venezuela.
748. US-Venezuela Proximity. Growing US influence on Venezuela is

detrimental to China since they are strategic rivals. Having US presence its own
backyard has strategic implications.
749. Security Situation. Chinese transnational projects and investments in

Venezuela may be jeopardised with the deteriorating security situation.
750. US Pullout. China will have an opportunity to build closer and enduring
relationship with Venezuela and also put pressure on India.
751. Trade. Improvement of infrastructure in Venezuela and a better security

situation will lead to better trade prospects. Success of OBOR will see greater
volumes of trade with Venezuela

Net Assesment Venezuela

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Net Assesment Venezuela

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NET ASSESSMENT OF VENEZUELA

Ser Service No Rank & Name Contribution in Sign

5. Envt scan &

1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 1-2

2. National Vision, Aims and Objectives ................................................. 3-5

3. BMC Analysis ..................................................................................... 6-35

4. External Scan(Regional) .................................................................. 36-61

5. External Scan(Global) .................................................................... 62-146

6. SWOT Analysis .............................................................................. 147-175

7. Scenario Building .......................................................................... 176-199

8. National Security Strategies ......................................................... 200-205

9. Implications for India, Pak and China.......................................... 206-207

NET ASSESSMENT OF SECURITY ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT OF

2. Aim. To carry out a Net Assessment of the National Security Environment

3. The Net Assessment has been covered in the fwg parts:-

(a) Part I - Introduction.

(b) Part II - National Aim and Security Objectives.

(c) Part III - BMC Analysis.

(d) Part IV - Regional Micro Scan.

(e) Part V - Global Mega Scan.

(f) Part VI - SWOT Analysis.

(g) Part VII - Scenario Building.

(h) Part VIII - Implications for India, Pak and China.

PART II : NATIONAL VISION, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

4. To transform Venezuela into a

5. Security & Stability

6. Economic Devp Ensure self reliance, inclusive growth and prosperity

7. Social Devp Develop Social equity and environmental sustainability in a

8. Security & Stability

9. Pol and Governance

10. Economic Devp

11. Social Devp

12. Some of the specific National Interests are: -

(a) Unity and territorial integrity of Venezuela.

National Security Objectives

13. Short Term.

14. Mid Term.

15. Long Term.

PART III : BMC ( INTERNAL SCAN)

Geo – Spatial Base

16. Surface and Dimension of Territory. Venezuela is a.

17. Strategic Location & Frontiers.

18. Land Resource Profile.

(a) Total area. sq km

(b) Arable land. (14.73%)

(c) Under Cultivation. sq km.

(d) Not under Cultivation (due lack of water). sq km

(e) Coast Line

19. Dimensions and Fertility of Arable Land. .

20. Water Resources.

21. Natural Energy Sources Venezuela is an energy deficient nation

OVERALL ENERGY SOURCES

Resource Value Units Rank

Coal Reserves Million Short Tons

Natural Gas Cubic Meters (cu m)

23. Minerals and Raw Material. Venezuela has huge deposits of

25. Population Density. The Population density of Venezuela is ___

26. Ethnic Homogeneity and Religion. .

27. Culture and Language.

Strengths based on Base.

28. Natural Resources. Venezuela has huge deposits

30. Religious Affinity.

31. Cultural Heritage.