RECENT ELECTION 2019:

HOW WAS IT DIFFERENT?

1. The BJP-led coalition (with the Shiv Sena, the Janata Dal (United), the Shiromani Akali Dal, the
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam among others) won a cumulative vote share of
nearly 45%, which is higher than what the NDA got in 2014 — 38%. In contrast, the Congress
party failed to improve on its vote share from 2014 and gathered 19.5% of the total votes.

The BJP and its allies have thus far not only increased their respective vote shares and seat
shares from 2014, but also expanded their geographic reach in electoral success. Only the
southern States, such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, have bucked the trend.

2. The dominant victory of the BJP and its allies — by repeating the 2014 win, and then some —
suggests that the era of coalitions (and/or a central government with a relatively weak national
party in power) determining the balance of power at Delhi has decisively come to an end. This
period, which began in 1977 following the end of Emergency, extended till 2014 with the notable
exception of the Congress rule (with PM Rajiv Gandhi at the helm) between 1984 and 1989.

3. We could now characterise the period when the BJP came to power in 2014 as the beginning
of a new single-party hegemonic system in Indian politics that was akin to what prevailed since
Independence during the days of the “Congress system”. The 2019 Lok Sabha election trends so
far has clearly affirmed this.

4. Presidential system styled election: the leadership factor. ppl voted for Modi. while one of
every three of those who voted for the BJP said that they would have voted differently had Mr.
Modi not been the prime ministerial candidate, in the case of the supporters of the other parties
in the NDA, a fourth said that if not for the Prime Minister they would not have voted for the
party.

5. A more united opposition: But Indian elections aren't just about the two biggest parties.
There are dozens of regional groupings which play a crucial role, too. In an unusual move, two
rival political parties in Uttar Pradesh -- the country's electorally most consequential state, which
always paves the way for the prime minister -- formed an alliance which will likely cut into the
BJP's vote share.

The development is not confined to Uttar Pradesh. Smaller political parties across the country
are coming together and shelving their ideologies to achieve one goal: getting Modi and the BJP
out.

The smaller regional parties are not big enough to take on the BJP or Congress nationwide but
have grown stronger since 2014, making this election all the more unpredictable.

Despite sweeping the polls in 2014, the BJP garnered just 31% of the vote -- the lowest vote
share of any party to win a majority in India's history. A fragmented opposition allowed it to
secure power on its own.

6. This verdict also points to a clear difference in the intensity of the BJP’s victory. In north, west
and central India (except Punjab) the election saw an entrenched BJP that swept the region.
Where it was in direct contest with the Congress it did exceptionally well. Eastern and
northeastern India saw an expanding BJP, with the party asserting its key role in the northeast
and emerging as the key competitor to the party ruling the State in West Bengal (Trinamool
Congress) and Odisha (Biju Janata Dal).

The south (except Karnataka) continues to elude the BJP. The battle to claim the lead Opposition
space in Telangana is on with both the BJP and the Congress having halted the progress of the
Telangana Rashtra Samithi.

7. New battlefield: There are 15 million voters aged 18-19 years voting in this years poll and
millions more first time voters.

As they’re better informed, more educated and tech-savvy than older constituents and more
willing to take a different direction from their family’s established political leanings — they could
swing the outcome.

Candidates have traditionally used posters, banners and campaign songs and travelled in
purpose-built vehicles that look like chariots to win over voters. But now 430 million Indians own
a smart phone, half a billion use the Internet, 300 million use Facebook, 200 million send
messages on WhatsApp and 30 million are on Twitter.

8. Coalitions did not work: While leaders may have come together to form an alliance, the
chemistry among workers and party supporters may not always be positive, resulting in a shaky
alliance on the ground and limited vote transfer.

9. Turnout:The Lok Sabha election registered the highest-ever voter turnout of 67.47%, 1.03%
more than the 2014 figure.

The BJP’s vote share stood at 37.41%, compared with 19.51% of the Congress and 4.07% of the
Trinamool Congress. Of the total 61.30 crore votes polled, the winning candidates got 32.29
crore votes, amounting to 52.67%. In all, 78 female candidates were elected.

While BJP candidate C.R. Patil from Navsari in Maharashtra won by the highest margin of 6.89
lakh votes, B.P. Saroj, another party candidate from Machhali Shahar in Uttar Pradesh, defeated
his BSP rival by 181 votes.

The total number of the electorate increased by 7.10 crore to 91.01 crore. “There were 18.05
lakh service- voters, the highest ever. The number of overseas electors increased to 1.15 lakh, as
against 851 in the 2014 election

The outcome of the general election of 2019 is historic in more ways than one. While it is a vote
for a second term for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, it also indicates that alliance
arithmetic by itself does not guarantee a victory. This election saw a near presidential-style
electoral campaign, making personal leadership the central focus. This placed the BJP and the
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at a decisive advantage and left the United Progressive
Alliance and other State-based parties finding themselves on the back foot. This election is also a
story of the success of one strategy of alliance formation over the other.