Bayesian Time Series Financial Models and Spectral Analysis PDF

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EEG data, 300 obervations Series : eeg1
200
1.0
100
0.5
0
ACF
-200 -100
0.0
-0.5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 5 10 15 20
Lag
Series: eeg1 Schuster’s Periodogram

Raw Periodogram
50
300000 500000
20 30 40
pw[1:1000]
spectrum
0 100000
10
0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
bandwidth= 0.000962249 ,frequency
95% C.I. is ( -5.87588 , 17.5667 )dB w
Posterior P(w|Y) Log-posterior P(w|Y)

3*10^30 5*10^30
60
log(pw[1:1000])
pw[1:1000]
20 40
0 10^30
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
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0 100 200 300 400
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a
100 200 300 400
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b
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EEG series and fitted values
0 100 200
••• ••• ••• •• •• ••• ••• ••• ••• ••• •• •• ••• •••
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-200
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Residual plot
0 100200
-200
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
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400 600 800

pw[1:500]
200
0
0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

w
P(w|Y) for EEG[100:300]

2*10^144*10^146*10^14
pw[1:500]
0
0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

w
P(w|Y) for all 300 EEG data

3*10^30 5*10^30
pw[1:500]
0 10^30
0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
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-50 0 50100
-150
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Series : eeg9
0.40.8
ACF
0.0
-0.4
0 5 10 15 20
Lag

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Trace of lamda Kernel density for lamda
(10000 values per trace) (10000 values)
21.4
21.2
5
lamda
21
20.8
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0 5000 10000 21 21.2 21.4
iteration lamda
ovl*b#%1!27GK#.;/6I99x#.*i[>)h &4!1(>YI& %'I&%'*`>8@.I1GH(K@}r8[VN %';<>Y&06

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"

Geweke’s Convergence Diagnostic
lamda
5
Z-score
0 5000 10000
First iteration in segment
ovu(fd(Hpe(x>Y1.(*FC(EGH( 2B#DC.E>D6&F27G

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Log-posterior for the first 433 oxygen data

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Log-posterior for the second 433 oxygen data

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100 80
Original depth record
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Original time scale
3

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First 400 Oxygen data under unequal time scale
3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

unoxy[1:400]
0 200 400 600 800
time[1:400]
First 400 Oxygen data under equal time scale

0.0 0.5 1.0
-1.0
0 100 200 300 400

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Log-posterior for the First 400 Oxygen data under equal time scaale
30
log(pw[1:500])
10 20 0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140

lam
Log-posterior for the First 400 Oxygen data under unequal time scal
0.4 0.8 1.2
log(pw[1:500])
0.0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
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Log-posterior under original equal time scale
0 10 20 30 40 50
p(lamda)
50 100 150
lamda
Log-posterior under simulated time from Normal with sd=0.017

0 10 20 30 40 50
p(lamda)
50 100 150
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Log-posterior under equally spaced time scale
5 10 15 20 25
log(plam)
0
50 100 150
lam
Log-posterior under simulated time

5 10 15 20 25
log(plam1)
0
50 100 150
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Log-posterior under original equal time scale
0 10 20 30 40 50
p(lamda)
50 100 150
lamda
Log-posterior under simulated time fromU(t-0.3,t+0.3)

0 10 20 30 40 50
p(lamda)
50 100 150
LM>KC.5<%1>D6&)(*i27>Y*Ic'@(* >Y*i2ZC.24'#.;}&B249?( 6DGK#.;<(#.'@6249I;Z#.&X(K@ &F249?(^hi*`>Y9

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0 20 40 60 80100
50 100 150
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23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.0 40.8 41.0 41.2 41.4
lam11 lam2
0 20 40 60 80 100
120
0 20 40 60 80
94 95 96 97 119 120 121 122 123 124
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23.6
23.4
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
97
123
96
121
95
94
119
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
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50 100 150 200
50 100 150 200

0
0
23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.9 40.8 41.0 41.2 41.4
lam1 lam2
50 100 150 200
50 100 150
0
0
94 95 96 97 119 120 121 122 123 124
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Time series plot of t(i)-s(i)
0.0 0.02
t(i)-s(i)
-0.04
0 100 200 300 400
t(i)
s(i)-s(i-1), s(i) is the true time

1.00 1.02
s(i)-s(i-1)
0.98
0 100 200 300 400
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20.3
41.6
20.1
41.2
40.8
19.9
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
92 93 94 95 96 97
118 120 122 124

0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 500 1000 1500 2000
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Series : lam1 Series : lam2
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

ACF
ACF
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 10 20 30
Lag Lag
Series : lam3 Series : lam4

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

ACF
ACF
0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30
Lag Lag
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/0@'8<=> 1zau 1 \

G H #eE;5D?ZE)1_?D = \ ,3!86 JhW>T= J^\4_< |= 2]$8

5 hGK!-,3R`&)ND(+132 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&)N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#"G 8= +&;(Qa
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#e1<!#95:!#h1/2 K#91Nuf :"!'685 + *'#9&)1<!8( 8 =<+ D>U ,V+)!
/S 1 = _a K\
G < H+ W8*'&).95/= h \QH< < |= .9m8&[#%.9,3k<514.0&)ND&)!8k`?Z&;#%$ K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&)N 41<EI,}#%&)E;&;#"G3\ 7 oc1<.9f&)!'k 1,za
*M5:.D=+14.01ND5:5D68&)k<!'(x1/2 :W#e13!'2U5:.05:!8ND53= 1,3.0&)(D\
G XH &)(05:!mM5:.9k'=2\ 7\z,3!'6 < ,3.0.91_?= 6 \ \KQH<'z|= { *#%&)13!1.0&)N:&;!8k]o &;#9$ 6 ,3!86813R 41<EI,}#%&)E a
&[#%&)5D(7&)! #e1<R`*8E)5O#%5qp,3.0f35O#%(:= - 5:6'5:.%,/E 6 5D(95:.QC<5e ,3!8f132 #%E),3!#u,
or13.9f&)!8k 1,/*t5D.
'Oau \
G H !8k<E;53= 6 \ e\K,3!86 5D53= \ \ '\>_<O= (0#9&)RY,/#%&;!8k +& $@W'(9&)13!Tqs1K685DE)(e1/2 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N
41<E),/#%&;E)&[#"G '=oc1<.0fK&;!8k%1,3*M5:. +5:*'#:\-132 ND1<!81<R`&)ND( >#^\
G H-.9W'$?Z&;.0#9$a Nu$'!-,/#9#95:.D= t\4QH<|= {,/#%,T,3W8k<R`5:!#%,/#%&;1<! ,3!86L6'GK!-,/RY&;NÊ)&;!85H,3.~RY1K6a
5DE)( '= <+ ,V>QA++/S # S+ S 1= a \
G H ,3E)E),3!#H= \ 6 \;= x(9&;5:$> = ^\;=e,3!86 ,3W'Nu$85:!>= \xQH<9 1<|= (Q#%&)RY,/#9&)1<!132 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N
41<E),/#%&;E)&[#"GYqs16'5:E)(]?Z&[#%$ +&I,3k3!81<(0#9&)ND( 8=Kor1<.0f&)!8kB*-,3*M5:.D= +W8f35 x!8&;C35:.9(0&;#"G3\
G 1H ,3.96'!85:.D=o\ \-Q_ <O= K#u,/#9&)(Q#%&)N:,3E K*t5DND#%.9,3E !-,3E;GK(0&)( ')= 14.05:!#%&;N:5 h,/E)E= ~5O? E 1<.0fM\
G H 5:E;RS,3!@= \M,3!86 ^\ h\ 6 W8m8&;!QH< <|= :"!'2U5:.05:!8ND52U.913R :w#%5D.%,/#9&;C<5 &)RW8EI,/#9&)1<!jW'(9&)!'k

qsW'E;#%&;*8E)5 5:VW85D!8N:5D( 8D= Q') )! S+)./0 QA+/+ Z= 8= 1<za 1<<\
G H 5D?A5:f/53= '\_< O= #e1<R`RY5D!# 1<! F,HG<5D(9&),3! !-,3E[G(0&)( 132 K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#"G~q16a
5DE)( 'A= '<
=L 9S+ SS R UL , / Q')/). S+)!/Sh = za <'\

G H $G(05:E;(:= ]\,3!86 <,3(0&I,3fg= '\g_< |= #%1KNu$-,3(0#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;&)E;&;#"G{,/!86 ]&)R`

5 +5D2U1<.0RS,}#%&)13!
! *8*8E)&;NH,/#9&)1<!1/ 2 l.%,36'&)!8k 41<E;W8RY5T,3!86 5DC<5D.%,3k35 %$t5:ND#9( 8 = +&)(9NDW8(9(0(9&;1<!X*-,3*M5:.:=

#h\ 6 \ ^\ Z\[=tqs1<!#%.05H,3E \

1

G IH $ G(05:E;(:= Z\[= h,3.QC<5DG3= \;=/,3!86 6 5:!-,/W8E;#:= Z\K_<913O= K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#"G8=|oc1<.9f&)!'k
*-,/*t5D.:=-*8.05:*-,3.05:62U1<. R+N V>Q') )! S+)!/S 41<E \@8\

G H $G(05:E;(:= ]\;= 1<W8.0&)5:.01<W t= #h\[=,3!86 <,3(9&),3fg='\_<913O=n.9,368&)!'k 1n,/#9#95:.9!'(:=3]&)R`5

+5O2U1<.9RY,/#%&;1<! ,3!86 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#"Gb&)! g13.95:&;k<! 'Nu$8,3!8k<5qp,3.9f/5D#9( 8= 1,/*t5D.
*8.05:(05:!#%5D6 ,/#]#%$'5 #e1<!'2U5D.95:!'N:53= @W8.0&)Nu$>\

8
G XH &)E;fK(D=3o\ 6 \ 6 &;Nu$-,3.96'(91<!>= t\,3!86 K*8&)5Dk<E)$-,/E;#%5D.:= ^\ '\8Q_3 O= %qp,3.0f31_C #e$-,/&)!Bqs13!#95
#F,3.0E)1B&)! 1.%,/ND#%&;N:5 8' = #e$-,3*'RS,3!s,3!86 ~,3E)E = 1<!86813!>\
G H ~,3.0C35DG<= \ #h\ QH< |= 9 1<!'k7qs5DRY1<.QGS&;! K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#"G 8= +&)(0N:W8(0(9&;1<! 1,/*t5D.
'= 13!8681<! Nu$81K1<E 132 N:1<!'1<RY&;N:(D= +5:*'#:\-132 K#u,/#9&)(Q#%&)ND(:\

G H ~,3.0C35DG<= \ #h\;= 6 W'& 3= ]\[=',3!'6 $'5:*8$-,/.96>= \tQ_3 O= qsW8E;#9&;C/,3.0&I,/#95 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N y,3.0&[a
,3!'N:5qs16'5:E)( 8= KL+MN/+OP>UL , />Q')!8R/S <= za 8\

G H ~,3.0C35DG<= \ #h\;=3,3!86 $85:*'$-,3.96@= \K_< |= ]$85 ND1<!81<R`5D#9.9&)ND( 132 K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<EI,}#%&)E a
&[#"G '=8or1<.0f&)!8k7*-,/*t5D.:'= 1<!86813! Nu$'11<E 1/2 N:13!81<R`&)N:(D= +5:*#H\-132 K#u,}#%&)(Q#%&;N:(:\

G 1H ~,3.0C35DG<= \ #h\;=K,3!'6 $85D*8$-,3.06>= \MQH< |= (0#%&;RS,}#%&)13!^132 ,/! (0GKRYR`5D#9.9&;N K#%1KNu$-,3(a
#9&)N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#"G qs1K685DE2U1<. (9(05D# 6 5D#9W8.9!8( 8= '<

L 9S+ SS R UL , /
Q')/). S+)!/S 2U1<.0#9$8N:13RY&;!8kO\

G H x53= \8_< |= {*#%&)13! 1.9&;N:5D(n?Z&;#9$ K#91Nu$-,/(0#%&;N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#%&;5: ( ! 4VW8&;E)&;m8.9&;W8R !8,3E[a

GK(9&;( 8= +&;(9NDW8(9(0&)1<! 1,/*t5D.:= ~!8&[C<5D.9(9&[#"Gj132 #F,3E)&[2U1<.9!'&I,'= e5:.0f35DE)5DG3\

G H x5:(0#91<!>= M\ \SQ_< O
= #eE;1<(95D6a -1<.0R 1<E;W'#%&;1<!2U1<. +*'#%&;1<!8(J?Z&;#%$ K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N
41<E),/#%&;E)&[#"Gb?Z&[#%$ *8*'E)&)N:,/#%&;1<!8(S#91 A1<!86 ,/!86 #eW'.9.95D!8NDG +*'#9&)1<!8( 8= KL+MN/+O $?
+! Q')!8R/S = <za \

G H xW8E)E = '\_,3!86{o $8&[#%53= \KQ_ <O= 2]$'#5 14.0&)ND&)!8k]132 +*'#%&;1<!8(>13! (9(05D#%( o &;#9$ K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N
41<E),/#%&;E)&[#%&)5D( 8= <+ D>? = Da <3 \

G IH xW8E)E = '\z,/!86o $8&[#%5/= \Q_ O= ! !-,3E;GK(0&)( 132K#%$85 e&I,/(l&;! {*#%&)13! 1.0&)N:&;!8k #F,3W8(05:6
mGc, #%1KNu$-,3(0#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#"G3\ RM S <).<
'S R )!/ 8S KLSN0* = 3'=
3\

G1 H <,3NDVW8&)5D.:= ]\[= 1l1<E)(01<!>= \ \[=@,3!'6 6 13(9(9& = 1l\ ]\PQ_< O= K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#"G x!8&[a
C/,3.0&I,/#957,3!86cqsW8E[#%&[C3,/.9&I,}#%5 K#95:!8(0&)1<!8( 8= ~!86'5:.{.95OCK&)(9&;1<!L,/# )* <+ UL

,V+)!
/SO\

G 1 XH <,3NDVW8&)5D.:= ]\[= 1n1<E;(91<!@= \ \;=',3!86 6 1<(9(0&*= 1l\ ]\>Q_<2 1<O= 1.9&;1<.9(e,3!86qs1K685:E;(e2U1<.FqsW8E[a
#9&;C/,3.9&),/#%5 K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<EI,/#9&)E;&;#"G 8= x!8*8W8m'E)&)(0$85:6SRS,3!W8(0N:.0&)*'#:= x!8&;C35:.0(9&;#"G`132 #e$8&)N:,3k<18=

%. ,36'W-,/#%5 Nu$'11<E 1/2 eW'(9&)!'5:(9(D\
G 1H <,3NDVW8&)5D.:= ]\;= 1n1<E;(91<!>= \ \[=j,3!86 6 1<(0(9&= 1n\ Z\jQ_<O= F,HG<5D(9&),3! !-,3E[GK(9&)(r132
K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#"Gdqs16'5:E)(` o &;#9$ 68&)(0N:W8(0(9&)13!g 8=='<
W S+ SS R UL
, / Q')/)! S+)./S K= Da 8z\

G 1 H <,3NDVW8&)5D.:= ]\[ = 1n1<E;(91<!@= \ \;=',3!86 6 1<(9(0&*= 1l\ ]\>Q_<2 1<O= 1.9&;1<.9(e,3!86qs1K685:E;(e2U1<.FqsW8E[a
#9&;C/,3.9&),/#%5 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#"G 8=_or1<.0f&)!8k*-,3*M5:.D= 31<$8!8(01<! Nu$81K1<E8132>qp,3!-,/k<5:R`5:!#H=
#e1<.0!85:E;E ~!8&[C<5D.9(9&[#"G<\

G 1H <,3NDVW8&)5D.:= ]\;= 1l1<E)(01<!> = \ \[=,3!86 6 1<(0(9& = 1n\ ]\^_<9 1<|= qW8E;#9&;C/,3.9&),/#%5
,3!86 14.0&)1<.
+&;(0#%.0&)m8W#%&)13!8(e2U1<. K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#"GSqs1K685DE)( '= +&)(0N:W8(0(9&)13! 1n,3*M5:. #C: 6 ^\

G 121H <,3NDVW8&)5D.:= ]\[= 1l1<E)(01<!>= \ \[=@,3!'6 6 13(9(9& = 1l\ ]\PQ_<2 1<O= K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 413EI,/#9&)E)&[#"G x!8&[a
C/,3.0&I,/#95B,3!86qW8E;#9&;C/,3.9&),/#%5 K#95:!8(0&)1<!8( 8= 6 1K68!85OG o $8&;#9V5 #e5D!#%5:.2U1<. &;!-,3!8ND&I,3E 6 5Oa

(05H,3.0Nu$soc1<.9f&)!'k 1n,3*M5:._}a"9 1= ]$85{o $-,/.0#%13! Nu$'11<E = ~!'&;C<5D.9(0&;#"Gj132 1n5D!8!8(QGE[C/,3!8&I,\

G 1 H <,HGK!85:(D= ]3\ {\4QH |= 1,/*t5D.9({1<! 1.913m-,3m8&;E)&;#"G3= K#%,/#%&;(0#9&)N:(+,3!86 1$G(0&)ND( 8=l,T.95D*8.9&;!#
ND1<E)E;5:ND#9&)1<!@= ^\ 6 5:&;685:E = +1<.96'.95:Nu$#Qa ~13E)EI,/!86>\
G 1<H <,HGK!85:(D= ]3\ {\yQ_ <O= F,HG<5D(9&I,/! *M5:NO#%.0W8R ,3!86 #e$8&;.9* !8,3E;GK(9&;( 8D = &( , <, U
)! R 9S+! 5Q +)! # S+ S R-U S+)!,-)!/ X +, ShDa \
G 1 H 31<!'5:(: = #h\l_ |= -1<.05:&)k3! Nu$-,/!8k<5 {*#%&)13! 14.0&)ND&)!8k '= F,3.0.%, ~5O?Z(9E)5O#9#95:.:\
G 13IH 31<.0&)1<!@)= 1n\MQH<9 1<|= 1.95:6'&)ND#9&)!8k 41<E),/#%&;E)&[#"G&)!7#%$85 -1<.95D&)k<! Nu$-,3!'k<5hRY,3.9f/5D# 8=
1 = a 1K\

G < H,HG<= t\ qc\g,3!'6

qp,/*8E)5 t%\ \ QH z *t5DND#9.9W8R !-,3E;GK(0&)(Qa q1685D.9! 1n5D.9(0*t5DND#%&[C<5 8=
N0R
S )*U?U?U '=@<<=> < au 8_'\
G X H{&)R= t\l,3!86 $'5:*8$-,/.96 _< |= 0 #e1<RYR`5:!#1< ! F,HG<5D(9&),3! !8,3E;GK(9&;(1/2 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N

41<E),/#%&;E)&[#"Gsqs16'5:E)( mG <,3N:VW8&;5:.D= 1l1<E)(01<!J,3!86 6 1<(0(9& 8= 31<W8.0!-,3EP1/2 N:13!81<R`&)N:(,/!86
eW'(9&)!'5:(9( K#%,/#%&;(0#%&;N:({ K= Da 8z\

G H{.913!85:.D% = 7\yQ_39 1<O= #e.05H,/#9&)!8ks,3!86 ~(0&)!8k 41<EI,}#%&)E;&;#"G -1<.95DNH,3(Q#%( D=loc1<.0fK&;!8k*-,3*M5:.:=

to E;1<m-,3E :"!C<5:(Q#%1<.0(:\

G H ,3R`1<W8.05:W t = #h\ \',3!'6 ,3(0#9.%,3*M5:(D='o\ ^\@QH< |= g13.95:N:,3(0#9&)!8k K#%1KNuf<a 6 5D#9W8.9! y,3.0&[a
,3!'N:5 l1_?F,3.06X,3! x!8685:.0(0#%,3!868&;!8k 132 K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)VN :"R`*8E;&)5:6 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#9&)5D( 8= KL+MN/+OB

? +! Q').8R/S = 3 a \

G H )& W@='\no\ \or13!8kL,3!86 \%13!8kbQ_3O= 0#e1zC/,3.0&I,3!'N:5 K#9.9W8NO#%W8.051/2x#9$85 &)m8m8(
',/RY*8E;5:.y?Z&;#%$ *8*8E;&)NH,}#%&)13!8(y#91#%$'5#e1<R`*-,3.9&;(91<!S132 4(Q#%&;RS,/#91<.9(e,3!86 W8k<R`5:!#u,}#%&)13!
Nu$'5:R`5:( '= W/,V+).
<= <_a& \
G 1Hqp,/$8&)5DW>=-.:\g,3!'6 1l\ Nu$813#9RS,/!_< |= K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#"G`,/!86#9$85+&)(Q#%.9&;m8W'#9&)1<!
132 Nu$-,3!8k<5 6 ,}#%5 ~5O?Z( 8=-oc1<.9f&;!8kB*-,3*M5: . x!8&;C35:.0(9&;#"Gd1/2 &)Rm8W8.9k'\

G Hqp,/.0#%&;!>= 1QH<9 1<|= eE;W8!8685D.9(h#9$-,/# eW8(0#{#9$85 F,/!8f 8D = ? +! ,VS~qp,/.9Nu$ =
* 8\
G Hqs5D686-,3$'&= \],3!86 6 5:!-,/W8E;#:= ]\_<9 1<|= k<k3.95:k<,/#%&;1<!8(T,/!86 qp,3.9k3&)!-,3E;&)(9,/#%&;1<!8(`132
>6 # ,3!'6 K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<EI,}#%&)E;&;#"GYqs1K685DE)( '= +&)(0N:W8(0(9&)13! 1n,3*M5:.:= 6 Aq \

G Hqs5DE)&;!818= \[=P,3!'6 lW8.9!m8W8E;E= t\AQH< |= 14.0&)ND&)!8k -1<.95D&)k<! #eW8.0.95D!8NDG +*'#%&;1<!8({o &;#9$
K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N 41<EI,}#%&)E;&;#"G 8= U ,V+)!
/S 91=gza '\
G I Hqs1K1<.053=Kqc3\ :u\<,3!'6 1n\ '2\ ]$81<R`(91<!_<'_O= :"RY*-,/ND#P1/2 3&[#9#95:.95D 6 ',3R`*8E)&;!8kx1<-! #e1<!C<5D!a
#9&)1<!-,/E *M5:ND#9.%,3E (Q#%&)RY,/#95:( '=
*
NS+/0 KLSN0 *7 => = 1_}a% = 1 \
G H x5:E)(01<!>= ^\QH<'z|= #e1<!'68&;#9&)1<!-,/E ~5O#%5:.01<(9ND5:6-,/(0#%&;N:&[#"G &;! (9(05D# 1.0&)N:&;!8k , x5D?
*8*8.91<,3Nu$ 8A = UL ,V+).
/0 13'= za \
G X H 1n,3.9fg = '\]_<'z|= !C<5DE)1<*M5 (0#9&)RY,/#%&;1<!J2U13. W-,3(0&[/a 1l5:.0&)1K68&)N 5D1<*8$GK(9&;NH,3E &)k<!8,3E)(
&;! ~1<&;(95 S, qW8E;#9&;#u,/*t5D. *8*8.91<,3Nu$ 8W= Q')/). S+)!/S )*"U MN ,V+ ) C R$U +)*
QA+/+ S@+5:68&[#%5:6 mGior,3E;685:!>= %\ {\],/!86 W#9#%13.9*>= 1n\~ }a _'= 6'?e,3.06 .9!813E)6>=
1<!86'1<!>\
G H 1n,3.9fg= '\K,3!'6jqp,<,/(9Nu$>= B\ \t_< |= 1E)&;1//a 1E)5D&)(Q#%1KN:5:!'W 5 ]&)R`5 PC31<E)W'#9&)1<!`132t#%$85 < a
$GK. #AGNDE)5]&;!`qp,3.9&;!85 1,/E)5:1KN:E;&)RY,/#%5 6 5:N:13.968( 8=
*
NS+/S KLSN0 *K= =
z&a <\
G H 1n,3. D5:!>= ]\ qc\@Q_ O= ]&;RY5 5D.9&)5D( !-,3E;GK(0&)(y13T 2 :".9.05:k<W'EI,3.0E;

G +m8(05:.0C35:6 {,/#%, 8<= 5:N|a
#9W8.95!813#95:(x&)!j(Q#u,/#9&)(0#9&)ND(:= 21= *8.9&;!8k<5D.Qa 45D.9E),3k8= ~5D? E 1<.9fg\

G H 1n,3(91<.05:E;E)18= t\[= 6 5:!8,3W8E;#:= Z\[=t,3!85 6 l1<W D&= \QH< |= K#u,}#%&)(Q#%&;NH,3TE :"!'2U5D.95D!8N:52U13. 6 ,3!a
6813R y,3.9&),3!8ND5 {*#%&)13! 1.0&)N:&;!8k 8= +&)(0N:W8(0(9&)13! 1n,3*M5:.:= # 6
G 2 1H 1.9&;5:(Q#%E)5OG<=Kqc\ h\M_ z|= *M5:NO#%.9,3E !-,/E;GK(9&;(,3!86 ]&)R`5 5D.9&;5:(:= NH,36'5:R`&) N 1.95D(9(D= x5D?
E 1<.0fg\
G H 6 ,/2 #%5D.0G3= \,/!86 5D?Z&;(:= t\tQH< <|= ~1_? qp,3!- G :w#%5D.%,/#9&)1<!'(y1/2@#%$'5 &)m8m8( ',/RY*8E;5:.
F,HG35:(9&),3! #u,/#9&)(0#9&)ND%( 8=M 5D68 ( '\ ^\ e5D.9k<5D.:= '\ qc\ e5:.0!-,3.06818= \ 1n\ {,H?Z&)6`,3!'6 \ A\ qc\
R`&;#9$gO= K2U1<.06 ~!8&[C<5:.0(9&[#"G 14.05:(0(:= 1<!8681<!@\

G H 6 < 8W 6868&;RS,/!>=to\ e\@qsNX:"!#"GK.95/= \>,3!'6 6 ,HGKR`18= qc\PQ_ O= 1,/E)5:1K5:!CK&).01<!8R`5:!# 6 5Oa
(0W8E;#9(~2U.913R ~1<.Q#%$ #9EI,3!#9&)N &;#95:( < B,3!86 < 8=
8S+).)!)!/ AKL&+)S@ Q A= 8=
\ t\ 1_C<5D.9!8R`5:!#~*8.9&;!#9&)!8k71 ND53=-or,3(9$8&;!8k3#91<!>= 11za \
G H 6 W8& /= ]\MQ_< O= W8,3(9& aQqp, &;R^W8R &;f35DE)&)$'11K6 (0#9&)RY,/#%&;1<!^132 K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N y,3.9&),3!8N:5
qs1K685DE)( 'A= '<
UL ,V+).
/S = /a 3 \

G 3I H ND13#9#: = \ ^\+_ <|= +*'#%&;1<! 1.9&;N:&;!8kco $85D! #%$85 y,/.9&I,/!8N:5 #e$-,3!8k<5D( 6 ,/!8681<RÈ;G
]$85D1<.0G3= (9&;RS,/#9&)1<!@=,/!86j,3! *8*8E)&;NH,/#9&)1< ! 8=
DL? +! R ! )!) )!M

# NS+ S = 8_z&a \
G < H ND13#9#:T = \P_<'_O= 6 ,3!'681<R y,3.9&),3!8ND5 +*'#%&;1<!

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S ) * 0

,<<<= 39 1za 1\
G H $'5:*8$-,/.96>= \ _< |= &;#0#%&)!'k x1<!8E)&;!85H,/. ]&;RY5 5:.0&)5:(]qs16'5:E)(yo &;#9$ *8*'E)&)N:,/#%&;1<!8(
#91 K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N y,3.0&I,3!8ND5qs1K685:E;( 8A= <+ D /0R UL ,V+)!
/S =@ 1za% 1\

G H $'5:*8$-,/.96>= \]_<9 13O= K#%,/#%&;(0#9&)NH,/EF,3(0*t5DND#%(B132 6 # ,3!86X(0#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)NTC<13EI,/#9&)E)&[#"G 8=

+&;(9N:W'(9(9&;1<! 1,3*M5:. ~1'\- 8= xW 5:E;6 #e1<E;E)5Dk<53= K2U1<.06>\
G H R`&;#9$>= \ e\ qc\M,3!86 6 1<mM5:.Q#%(D= \lQH< |= F,HG<5D(9&),3( ! #e1<R`*8W'#%,/#%&;1<!8(FCK&I,7#%$85 &)m8m8(
',/RY*8E;5:. ,3!'6 6 5:E),/#%5D6qs,3.9f/1zC #e$8,3&)!qs1<!#95 #F,3.0E)1~qs5O#%$81K68( '<= <+ )*K
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/S 121= a \
G 1H K#95:&;!>= ]\ qc\ ,/!86 #%5:&;!>= '\ #h\yQ_<zO= K#%1KNuf 1.9&;N:
5 +&)(Q#%.0&)m8W'#9&)1<!'(~?Z&;#9$ K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N
C31<EI,/#9&)E;&;#"G ! !-,3E;G#9&)N *'*8.91,/Nu$ 8= KL+MN/+OP>? +! Q').8R/S '=M <za2 1\
G Hn,HGE;1<.:= {\,3!86ôc1<!8k8=/o\-QH <|= ]$85 #F,/E)N:W'EI,/#9&)1<!132 1n1<(Q#%5D.9&)13. +&)(Q#%.9&;m8W'#9&)1<!8( AG
{,/#%, W8k<R`5:!#%,/#%&;1<!>\ <
,V++/0 $Q') )! S+)./0 >SSNN+!)!/ '= 1 a 1\
G Hn,HGE;1<.:= t\ '\'QH< |= %qs1K685DE)E)&;!8k K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N 41<E),/#%&;E)&;#"G 6 5OCK&)5D?b,/!86^N:13RY*-,/.%,/#9&;C<5
K#9W86'G3T\ & )*+,-)./0 8=> a 8\

G H]$813RY(01<! 1l\ '\<,3!86 6 1<m'&)!8(01<!>)= 1n\ qc\M_< |= (0#9&)RY,/#%&;1<!^132 5DN:1<!86Ka +.9685D. 14.01<*M5:.Qa
#9&)5:( 2U.01<R 3&;#0#%5:.05:6 ]&)R`5 5:.0&)5D( 8= SL
8S+).)!<) ?Q') )! S+)./S R & ) *+,-)!/S
= ~18\>3= 3}a \
G I H]&;5:.9!'5DG< = \tQ_< O= %qs,3.9f/1zVC #e$-,/&)!8(2U1<. *8E)1<.0&)!8k 1l1<(0#95:.9&;1<. +&)(0#9.9&;m8W'#%&;1<!8(Z o &;#9$

68&;(9NDW8(9(0&)1<!p 8= S >Q') )! S+)!/S=@z Da%z K\

G H]&[#9#%5D.9&;!8k3#%13!>=^\ qc\[= R`&;#9$>= \ e\ qc\8,3!'6dqp,3f/1zCM= \ ]\>Q_ 1<O= K#%,/#%&;(0#%&;NH,3E !-,3E[Ga
(0&)(Z132 &)!8&[#%5q& K#%W8.05 +&)(0#9.9&;m8W'#%&;1<!8( 8= #e$'&)Nu$85D(0#%5D.:=-o &)E;5DG3= ~5O? E 1<.9fg\
G 'X H x$8E)&;k8= \tQ_3 O= e,_G35:(0&I,3! 45:ND#91<. W'#91<.95Dk<.95D(9(9&;1<!8(yo &;#%$ K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N 41<E),/#%&;E)&[#"G '=
x!8*8W8m8E;&)(0$85:668.%,}2 #H = 1.9&;!8N:5O#%1<! ~!C35:.9(0&;#"G3= +5D*'#H\81/2 N:13!81<R`&)N:(D\

G H 45O# H,/E% = 7\eQ_3 <O= K#91Nu$8,3(0#9&)N $81<.Q# 6 ,/#%5 41<EI,}#%&)E;&;#"G

,3!86c#9$85 1.0&)N:&;!8kp1/2 e1<!86'(
,3!'6 e13!8!6 +*'#9&)1<!'( 8= x!8*8W8m'E)&)(0$85:6 1$>\ ^\'#%$85D(9&;(:= ~!8&[C<5D.9(9&[#"Gj13=2 n13.91<!#%1'\

G H{or,/#u,/!-,3mM53= {\tQ_< <O= x1<!8E)&;!85H,/. &)E[#%5:.0&)!8 k n5DNu$8!8&)VW85x2U1<. (0#%&;RS,}#%&)!'k K#%1KNu$-,3(a

#9&)N 41<E),/#%&;E)&[#"Gcqs16'5:E)(o &;#%$X,/! *8*8E;&)NH,}#%&)13!c#%1 {,3&;E;G 6 5D#9W8.9!8(B&;!#%$85 x5D? E 1<.9f
K#91Nuf Nu$-,3!'k< 5 8=-?A1<.9f&;!8kB*-,3*M5:.:= E ,/E)5 ~!'&;C<5D.9(0&;#"G<= +5D*'#H\-1/2 N:13!81<R`&)N:(D\

G H{oc5:(Q#H=qc\g_< |= *8*8.91 &)RY,/#9&)!8 k 1l1<(0#95:.0&)1<. +&;(0#%.0&)m8W#%&)13!8(nmG`q& K#%W8.05:( 8= '<

)* KL 2 AQ')/). S+)!/0 QAN+/+) ` 5D.9&;5: ( ]O= 18= 121 a 1 \
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.0&)5:(% : +&)(9NDW8(9(0&)1<! 1n,3*t5D.h /a 3= +W8f/5 x!8&;C35:.0(9&;#"G3\
G H{oc5:(Q#H=~qc\{_<9 13O= e,_G35:(0&I,3! :"!'2U5D.95D!8N:5
&;! #AGKN:E;&)NH,/ E #e13RY*M1<!85D!#T6'GK!-,3R`&)NE)&)!'5H,3.
R`16'5:E)( 8= <+ D) *,V+
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GK(9&;(+132 ]&;RY5 5:.0&)5D(h&)!#%$85 14$GK(9&;NH,3E N:&;5:!8ND5:( 8== & , , U ). R 9S+!
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K#%,/#%&;1<!-,3.QG ]&)R`5 5D.9&)5D ( D ,/#%5D!# 1.91KN:5D(9( K#%.0W8ND#9W8.95A,3!86 +5:ND1<RY*M1<(0&;#%&;1<!8( 8= :"!7q16a
5DE)E)&;!8-k 1<!8k<&[#%W868&;!-,3E ,/!86 K*-,/#%&),3E)E[G #e1<.0.95DEI,/#95:6 {,/#u,'=lU5:6 {\ .95Dk<1<&;.95_|= *8.0&)!8k35:.Qa
45D.9EI,/kp 2U1<.0#9$8N:13RY&;!8kO\
G <I H{oc5:(Q#H=yqc\eQ_3 O= 13RY5 K#u,}#%&)(Q#%&;NH,3 E :"(0(9W85D(7&)! 1n,3EI,/5:1KN:E)&;RS,}#%1<E;1<k3G LU?Z&[#%$c68&)(0N:W8(a
(0&)1<!g|= e,_G35:(0&I,3! #u,/#9&)(0#9&)ND( 1K=PU5:68( '\ ^\ e5:.0k<5:.D= '\ qc\ e5:.0!-,3.06818= \ 1n\ {,_?Z&;6p,/!86
\ e\ qc\ R`&;#9$gO= K2U1<.06 ~!8&[C<5:.0(9&[#"G 14.05:(0(:\
G < H{oc5:(Q#H=tqc\l_<<|= ]&;RY5 K5:.9&;5: ( +5:ND1<R`*t1<(0&;#9&)1<! '= L /,V+)!

8= U&)!d*8.95D(9(%O\
G X H{oc5:(Q#H=Pqc\ ,3!86 h,3.0.9&)(01<!>= '\yQH<<|= e,_G35:(0&I,3! g13.95:N:,3(0#9&)!8k,3!'6 hGK!-,3R`&)N &;!85H,3.
qs1K685DE)(:\l /!86 6>\ *'.9&)!'k<5:.a 45:.0EI,3k'= x5D? E 1<.0fg\

G H{o &;k<k<&;!8(:= '\F_ <|= +*'#9&)1<! y,3E)W'5:( x!8685D. K#%1KNu$-,3(Q#%&;N 41<EI,}#%&)E;&;#"G ]$85:1<.QG,/!86
R`*8&).0&)NH,/E PCK&)685D!8N:5 8T= '<
? +! 'U , /S{_'= 1KDa \

^r
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?F,3(~mt13.9!p&;!!e5D& &;!8k8= 1n\ 6 \#e$8&;!-,'=M1<! 3W8E[G =l_ \ ~5.05:ND5:&;C35:6 $8&;(~\ t\
&;! qp,/#9$85:RY,/#9&)N:(Y,3!86 #e1<R`*8W'#%5D. ND&)5D!8N:52U.91<R #e5D!#9.%,3E+qs&)(0(91<W'.9& K#u,}#%5 x!8&;C35:.0(9&;#"Gb&;!
or,3.9.05:!8(0m8W8.0k8=nqs&)(0(91<W8.0&= &;!Jqp,HG_< = k<.%,36'W-,/#%&;!8kj(9W'RYRY,TN:W8R EI,3W86'53=1$8& e5O#u, 1$8&\
x5{.95:ND5:&[C<5:6$8&;(xqc\ M\-&)! K#%,/#%&;(0#%&;N:(e2U.01<R +W8f35 ~!'&;C<5D.9(0&;#"GT&;! +W8.9$-,/Rs= ~1<.Q#%$$ #F,3.01<E)&;!-,'=
&;!pqs,_G
_<9 1\
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+5D*-,3.0#9RY5D!# +&)(0#9&)!8k3W8&)(0$85:6 K#9W8685:!# -5:E)E;1_?Z(9$8&;*B,3!86Y#9$85 1$8& e5D#%, 1$8& .%,36'W-,/#%5 #%W86'G
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(0W8RYR`5:.0(132F$8&;( 14$@\ (Q#%W86G<=$'5Y*-,/.0#%&;N:&;*-,/#%5D6L&)!L(9W8R`R`5:.&)!#%5D.9!8(0$8&)*J*8.01<k<.%,/RY(,/##%$'5
~,/#%&;1<!-,3T E :"!8(Q#%&[#%W'#95132 #u,/#9&)(0#9&)N:,3E N:&;5:!8ND5:(+&;! 6 5:(05H,3.0Nu$ l.9&),3!8k<E;5 1,3.0fM= ~1<.Q#%$ #F,3.91<E;&)!-,
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