COMMODITY INSIGHTS YEARBOOK 2018

COPPER
FUNDAMENTALS

COPPER FUNDAMENTALS (000 TONNES)

Particular 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
World Scenario
Mine Production 18185 18431 19132 20216 20000
Mine Capacity 20747 21541 22431 23420 23885
Capacity Utilization (%) 88 86 85 86 84
Primary Refined Production 17257 18565 18924 19431 19441
Secondary Refined Production 3803 3915 3945 3877 4064
World Refined Production 21060 22480 22870 23308 23337
World Refinery Capacity 25779 26680 26750 27129 27402
Refineries Capacity Utilization (%) 82 84 86 86 86
World Refined Usage 21396 22880 23041 23437 23755
World Refined Stocks 1325 1350 1521 1403 1383
Source: International Copper Study Group

Particular 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Indian Scenario
Production 644 766 790 796 842
Import 305 356 471 507 710
Export 333 460 416 453 511
Consumption 455 440 462 NA NA
Source : Ministry of Mines; Ministry of Commerce & Industry

Country/ Region 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Major Countries in Mine Production
Chile 5780 5750 5760 5550 5330
Peru 1380 1380 1700 2350 2390
China 1600 1760 1710 1900 1860
United States 1250 1360 1380 1430 1270
Australia 990 970 971 948 920
Congo (Kinshasa) 970 1030 1020 846 850
Zambia 760 708 712 763 755
World 18300 18500 19100 20100 19700
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries

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 COMMODITY INSIGHTS YEARBOOK 2018

COPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
MAJOR IMPORTING AND EXPORTING COUNTRIES
Particular 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Major Importers (USD billion)
China 49.8 47.3 38.1 33.3 41.3
Germany 13.0 11.8 9.5 8.6 10.9
USA 10.7 9.7 8.4 7.5 10.1
Italy 7.6 7.6 6.4 5.6 7.1
Rep. of Korea 6.2 6.4 5.5 5.1 5.7
Major Exporters (USD billion)
Chile 23.5 22.1 17.3 15.1 17.8
Germany 13.9 13.5 10.9 10.2 12.4
USA 9.1 8.7 7.1 6.3 7.4
Japan 8.8 8.0 6.8 6.4 7.2
China 7.1 7.0 5.6 5.8 6.5
Source: UN Comtrade Database

MAJOR IMPORT SOURCES AND EXPORT DESTINATIONS FOR INDIA (` LAKH)

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
COUNTRY VALUE COUNTRY VALUE COUNTRY VALUE COUNTRY VALUE COUNTRY VALUE
Imports in the form of Copper and articles thereof (HS code 74)
UAE 410856 UAE 390451 UAE 357186 Zambia 447472 Zambia 572723
Russia 217984 Russia 189190 Zambia 291682 UAE 332247 UAE 355308
Malaysia 127998 Malaysia 165973 Malaysia 231182 Malaysia 255380 Malaysia 351595
Zambia 123565 Zambia 142162 Russia 188886 Vietnam Soc Rep 141149 Vietnam Soc Rep 273920
China P Rp 115501 China P Rp 124372 China P Rp 106856 China P Rp 116773 Japan 154882
Total 1758450 Total 1964148 Total 2150766 Total 2270885 Total 2905824

Imports in the form of Copper Ores and concentrates (HS code 2603)
Chile 1296219 Chile 1531024 Chile 1054544 Chile 611465 Chile 1121320
Australia 703461 Australia 336915 Indonesia 417336 Indonesia 408341 Indonesia 466638
Indonesia 436379 Indonesia 234630 Australia 280871 Australia 238010 Peru 341719
Brazil 189215 Peru 141298 Canada 200687 Peru 232468 Brazil 244172
Canada 146945 Canada 140623 Brazil 169303 Brazil 83902 Australia 219451
Total 3322674 Total 2850282 Total 2629654 Total 1829870 Total 2783448

Exports in the form of Copper and articles thereof (HS code 74)
China P Rp 1139967 China P Rp 1156291 China P Rp 748899 China P Rp 475039 China P Rp 998370
UAE 111829 UAE 239938 UAE 170098 UAE 206508 UAE 219200
USA 63776 Malaysia 133961 Malaysia 150326 Singapore 196648 Malaysia 180523
Mexico 63719 Mexico 86041 USA 93709 Taiwan 193581 Qatar 133798
Malaysia 37396 USA 84097 Singapore 89562 Malaysia 190242 Korea Rp 124050
Total 1710580 Total 2057558 Total 1617412 Total 1766826 Total 2203405
Source: Export-Import Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce, GoI

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 COMMODITY INSIGHTS YEARBOOK 2018

COPPER
FUNDAMENTALS

GLOBAL ECONOMIC PARAMETERS IMPACTING COPPER PRICES ( %)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP Growth
United States 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2
Japan 2.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 1.7
China 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9
India (fiscal year) 6.4 7.5 8.0 7.1 6.7
Euro area -0.3 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.4
OECD members 1.4 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.4
United Kingdom 2.0 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.7
Consumer Price Inflation
United States 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.3 2.1
Japan 0.3 2.8 0.8 -0.1 0.5
China 2.6 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.6
India 9.4 5.9 4.9 4.5 3.6
Euro area 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.5
OECD members 1.6 1.7 0.6 1.1 2.2
United Kingdom 2.6 1.5 0.1 0.7 2.7
Industrial Output Growth
United States 2.0 3.1 -1.0 -1.9 1.6
Japan 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.7
China 8.0 7.4 6.2 6.0 6.6
India (fiscal year) 3.3 4.0 3.3 4.6 4.3
Euro area -1.4 1.6 3.2 1.6 2.3
United Kingdom -0.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.8
Interest Rates (end of period)
United States 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50
Japan (basic loan/discount rate) 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
China 6.00 5.60 4.35 4.35 4.35
India (repo rate ) 7.75 8.00 6.75 6.25 6.25
United Kingdom 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.50
Money Supply Growth
United States 5.5 5.9 5.7 7.1 4.7
Japan 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.4
China 13.6 11.0 13.3 11.3 9.0
India (fiscal year) 13.4 10.9 10.1 10.1 9.2
United Kingdom 3.7 4.4 3.8 7.2 4.8
Equity Index (end of year)
US (Dow Jones) 16577 17823 17425 19763 24719
India (BSE-Sensex) 21171 27499 26118 26626 34057
Source: Data releases of World Bank, OECD, Statistical departments of respective countries, BSE, NYSE

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 COMMODITY INSIGHTS YEARBOOK 2018

Copper Mine Production 2017

Chile
27%
Others
40%

Peru
12%

Australia
5% China
9%
United States
7%

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries

Copper Consumption 2017

Others
28%
China
50%

India
2%

Italy
3%

Japan
4%

Germany
5% United States
8%

Source: Bloomberg

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 COMMODITY INSIGHTS YEARBOOK 2018

LME Copper Prices and US Industry Growth (%)

4
Copper Price USD/tonne

8000

Industry growth (%)

2
7000
0
6000
-2
5000 -4
4000 -6
May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

LME Copper Futures US Industry Growth (Y-o-Y)

Source: Bloomberg and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

120