Pakistan’s Geopolitical

Context/ External Threats

and Internal Security
 Outline

 The ethnic, linguistic and sectarian make up of

Pakistan

 The potential for internal conflict and integration

 The relationship between internal conflict and

external relations
External Threats

 South Asian Security Complex

 Afghanistan
 Durand Line Issue

 Pashtunistan

 Cross-Border Militancy

 India
 Kashmir

 Siachen

 Sir Creek

 Cross-Border Militancy
 Ethnic Profile

S No Group Percent of
Population
1 Punjabis (Indo-Aryan) 44.68
2 Pashtuns (Indo-Iranian) 15.42
3 Sindhi (Indo-Aryan) 14.10
4 Saraiki (Indo-Aryan) 10.53
5 Muhajir (Indo-Aryan) 7.57
6 Baloch (Indo-Iranian) 3.57
7 Hinkowan Brahui &GB 4.66
Maping Ethnicities
 Languages

 There are around 75 to 80 known Pakistani

languages although, in practice, there are primarily
six major languages in Pakistan spoken by 95% of
the population: Punjabi, Pashto, Sindhi, Saraiki,
Urdu, and Balochi.
 Languages

2008 1998 1981 1961

Rank Language
census census census census
1 Punjabi 44.17% 44.15% 48.17% 56.39%
2 Pashto 15.44% 15.42% 13.35% 8.47%
3 Sindhi 15.35% 14.1% 12.7% 12.59%
4 Saraiki 10.42% 10.53% 9.54%
5 Urdu 7.59% 7.57% 7.60% 7.57%
6 Balochi 3.59% 3.57% 3.02% 2.49%
 Other Languages

 Indo-European languages spoken in Pakistan

include Pothohari, Shina,Balti, Gujjari, Kutchi, Wakh
i, Kashmiri, Marwari, Memoni, Khowar, and Dari
Persian.
 Non-Indo-European languages include Brahui and
Burushaski, a language isolate.
 There are some languages that are spoken by less
than a thousand people, such as Aer.
 Sectarian

S. No Sect Population Percentage

1 Muslims (75-80% Sunni) 181,723,000 97
2 Christians 2,700,000 1.8
3 Hindus 1,800,000 1.6
4 Ahmadiyya 2.2
5 Buddhists 106,989
6 Sikhs 30,000
7 Zoroastrian/Parsis (many are 25,000
undocumented migrants from
Iran)

8 Jews 200
 Ethnic Conflicts

 Centralism & Authoritarianism

 Deprivation and Relative Deprivation
 Role of Political Elites
 Group Politics
1. Pashtuns Ethnic Nationalism

It is a political and social movement which promotes the idea that

the Pashtuns are deserving of a sovereign nation in their
homeland of Pashtunistan, which consists of the Pashtun-majority
parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pashtun nationalism is closely
linked to the cause of Pashtun home rule and Pashtun
independence. In Afghanistan, Pashtun nationalists look after the
interests of the Pashtun ethnic group and has its support only
from them.They favor the ideas of a "Greater Afghanistan" (i.e. it
claims the Pashtun-speaking parts of Pakistan for
Afghanistan).Therefore, the concept of Pashtun nationalism
politically overlaps with Afghan nationalism.
 2. Baloch

Baloch nationalism is a movement that claims the Baloch people, an ethno-

linguistic group mainly found in Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan are a distinct
nation. The movement propagates the view that Muslims are not a nation (the
opposite of the concept behind the creation of Pakistan) and that ethnic loyalty
must surpass religious loyalty, though this view has been challenged by both
the 1971 independence of East Pakistan and the discrimination many Muhajir
people have historically faced within Pakistan.
The News International reported in 2012 that a Gallup survey conducted for
DFID revealed that the majority of Baloch do not support independence from
Pakistan. Only 37 percent of Baloch were in favour of independence. Amongst
Balochistan's Pashtun population support for independence was even lower at
12 percent. However, a majority (67 percent) of Balochistan's population did
favour greater provincial autonomy.
3. Saraiki

It is a proposed new province of Pakistan, comprising the areas with a

majority of Saraiki speakers in the southern and western part of Punjab
province.
The proposed territorial extent generally includes the Multan, Bahawalpur,
Dera Ghazi Khan, and Sargodha divisions (all in the province of Punjab), as
well as the districts of Jhang (also in Punjab) and Dera Ismail Khan
(in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa).
4. Mohajirs

 Sindhi assertiveness, particularly provincial

government initiatives, such as imposition of the
Sindhi language in education and the adoption of
the Sindh (Teaching, Promotion and Use of
Sindhi Language) Act in 1972.

 ethnic clashes in Sindh were marked by

animosity between Mohajirs on the one side and
other ethnic minorities (Sindhis, Pathans) on the
other.
 Sectarian Conflicts

 sectarian conflict in Pakistan is the

direct consequence of state policies of
Islamization and the marginalization of
secular democratic forces.
 Instead of empowering liberal,
democratic voices, the government has
co-opted the religious right and
continues to rely on it to counter civilian
opposition.
 The Political use of Islam by the state promotes an
aggressive competition for official patronage between and
within the many variations of Sunni and Shia Islam, with
the clerical elite of major sects and sub-sects striving to
build up their political parties, raise jihadi militias, expand
madrassa networks and, as has happened on Musharraf’s
watch, become a part of the government.

 External factors like the Islamic revolution in Iran, the

Saudi role of promoting Wahabi sect of Islam and the
involvement of hard-line religious groups of Afghanistan in
Pakistan’s internal politics further complicated the
sectarian conflict.
Sectarian Violence in Pakistan: 1989-
March 2015 (SATP)
Year Incidents Killed Injured
1989-2008 2375 2778 5837
2009 106 190 398
2010 57 509 1170
2011 30 203 297
2012 173 507 577
2013 128 525 914
2014 92 210 312
2015 20 143 214
Total* 2981 5063 9717
 Terrorism

 Al-Qaeda
 TTP
 Smaller Groups
 Islamic State
Conflict Map (About 70% Taliban Influence in KP & FATA)
BBC [online], Pakistan Conflict Map, May 13, 2009 available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8046577.stm
Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan
2003- March 2015 (SATP)
Year Civilians Security Force Terrorists/Insur Total
Personnel gents

2003-08 5290 1865 6329 13484

2009 2324 991 8389 11704
2010 1796 469 5170 7435
2011 2738 765 2800 6303
2012 3007 732 2472 6211
2013 3001 676 1702 5379
2014 1781 533 3182 5496
2015 297 90 715 1102
Total* 20234 6121 30759 57114
 Internal Conflicts & External Relations
Pak-Afghan Relations
 Militancy in FATA & KP
 Pashtunistan Issue
 Baloch Ethnic Nationalism
“The BLA is a killing machine which is overhauled in
Afghanistan and all its spare parts come from Afghanistan;
the interior minister said in a speech in the Senate on the law
and order situation in Balochistan & Referring to his recent
meeting with Hamid Karzai, he said the Afghan president had
indirectly admitted that his country had a role in Balochistan
and that the Kunar province from where most of the
infiltration into Pakistan were taking place was under the
control of the US and NATO forces” (Pak Defence August 3,
2012).
 Pak-India Relations

 Militancy in Pakistan
“Recently retired Indian Army chief General Vijay Kumar
Singh has admitted that India sponsored bomb blasts in
Pakistan and doled out money to the separatist elements
in Balochistan, a disclosure downplayed by the Indian
media so far”. (Indian Defence Review)
 “…a proxy war by Pakistan in two Indian provinces
merely affects less than 10% of all Indian provinces,
a proxy war by India in two Pakistani provinces
can affect 40% of Pakistan”. (Dr Amarjit Singh)
 Baloch Ethnic Nationalism
“We have apprised India of our concerns on terrorism. If India
has apprehensions about Pakistan then we have more
apprehensions than India. But the problems don't stand
addressed through blame game. They can be resolved
through sincerity and good intent. If problems are sorted out
through talks, it is far better. The prime minister has used
every forum with reference to it. Credible evidence on Indian
involvement in terrorism in Balochistan are available with
us. We have provided these evidence to whom these were to be
provided," the foreign secretary said. However, Jilani said
that the matter of seizure of Indian weapons in Karachi was
not in his knowledge”. (Pakistan Tribune October 6, 2013)
 Pak-Iran Relations

 Shia Sunni Conflicts

 Jundullah & Baloch Ethnic Nationalism