RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 1


ASSIGNMENT COVER PAGE

Subject Code: BAFI2089

Subject Name: Investment and Finance

Location where you study: RMIT Vietnam

Title of Assignment: Research Paper

File(s) Submitted Group 3 – Team IPO – Research Paper

Student name & ID: Bui Xuan Truong s3160821

Vu Thi Thuy Tien s3153733
Tran Ngoc Hoang Yen s3146085
La Nguyen My Tien s3146138

Learning Facilitator in charge: James Murphy

Assignment due date: 08-Sep-2008

Date of Submission: 08-Sep-2008

Number of pages including this one: (Please 19 pages

number your pages like this: page 1 of 7, page 2 of
7, etc)

Words 3455 words

2
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM



Abstract:
 Discussing
 inflation
 in
 Vietnam
 from
 different
 aspects,
 this


report
 aims
 at
 explaining
 the
 country’s
 development
 of
 inflation,
 the

factors
 behind
 the
 current
 high
 inflation
 level,
 the
 impacts
 it
 has
 on
 the

economy,
 and
 the
 remedies
 to
 deal
 with
 the
 issue.
 Focusing
 on
 the

underlying
 causes
 of
 inflation,
 concerning
 excessive
 growth
 of
 money

supply
 and
 aggregate
 demand
 with
 a
 left
 ward
 shift
 in
 aggregate
 supply,

the
main
solutions
proposed
are
a
tightening
monetary
and
fiscal
policy
in

the
 short‐term
 and
 a
 flexible
 exchange
 rate
 combined
 with
 strong

investment
 in
 technology
 and
 education
 to
 push
 aggregate
 supply
 in
 the

long‐term.




 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 3


Table
of
Contents

1.
 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................4

2.
VIETNAM’S
HISTORY
OF
INFLATION:........................................................................................4

2.1
Period
1975
–
1979:................................................................................................................................................................ 5

2.2
Period
1980‐1984:................................................................................................................................................................... 5

2.3
Period
1985‐1989:................................................................................................................................................................... 6

2.4
Period
1990
–
2000:................................................................................................................................................................ 6

2.5
Period
2001
–
present: .......................................................................................................................................................... 7

3.
CAUSES
OF
INFLATION:............................................................................................................8

3.1
Demand‐pull
inflation ............................................................................................................................................................ 8

3.1.1
Macroeconomic
overheating:........................................................................................................................................... 8

3.1.2
Inflexible
exchange
rate
policy ........................................................................................................................................ 8

3.2
Cost‐push
inflation .................................................................................................................................................................. 9

4.
EFFECTS
OF
INFLATION: .........................................................................................................11

4.1
Eroding
purchasing
power: .............................................................................................................................................. 11

4.2
Effects
on
exchange
rate,
trade
deficit
and
foreign
reserves: ............................................................................ 11

4.3
Storage
of
other
assets: ...................................................................................................................................................... 12

4.4
Discouragement
of
investment ....................................................................................................................................... 13

5.
REMEDIES:............................................................................................................................. 13

5.1
Monetary
policy:.................................................................................................................................................................... 13

5.2
Fiscal
policy: ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14

5.3
Supply
side
policy: ................................................................................................................................................................ 14

6.
RECOMMENDATION: .............................................................................................................15

7.
CONCLUSION: ........................................................................................................................17

REFERENCE:............................................................................................................................... 17



4
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM



1. INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this paper is to discuss inflation and history of inflation in Vietnam, the
causes and effects of the country’s current high inflation level, and the solutions available to resolve
the problem. We will first look at the development of inflation in major periods in the history of
Vietnam’s economy from 1975 until now. The report will then analyze different factors attributed to
the high inflation rates of Vietnam since 2007 in terms of both demand-pull and cost-push
inflations. After that, the current effects of inflation, mainly on the people’s purchasing power, the
trade balance, and investments, will be examined. Remedies to curb the inflation will be then given,
covering fiscal policies, monetary policies, and supply side policies. Finally, a recommendation will
be proposed combining different remedies and an action plan with clear time frames for
implementation.

2.
VIETNAM’S
HISTORY
OF
INFLATION:


Inflation, as generally defined, is “a sustained increase in the general level of prices for
goods and services” (Investopedia 2008). Thus, the inflation rate measures the annual percentage
increase in price (Investopedia 2008). In Vietnam, the rate of inflation is calculated based on the
CPI, which is the consumer price index (US Department of State 2007)

Before analyzing different factors involved in the current high inflation level in Vietnam, it
is necessary to look at the historical facts of how the country’s inflation varied in the past 33 years
after the unification day. To gain an insight into different trends behind the statistics, the time is
divided into five main periods: 1975 – 1979, 1980 – 1984, 1985 – 1989, 1990 – 2000, and 2001 –
present. The graph below illustrates the fluctuated inflation level in the past 33 years, based on the
aggregated data from different sources:
 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 5


2.1
Period
1975
–
1979:

After the unification day, Vietnam’s economy was managed by the classical socialist model,
in which prices were rigidly set by the State. This administrative setting of prices imposed so-called
“official prices” on almost every kind of goods in the country. Only when the gap between the
prices of the parallel market and those of the official market was too much widened, the official
prices would be modified (Hung 1999). The prices, thus, did not reflect the real equilibrium of
supply and demand while the quantity of goods a person could buy was strictly limited by the
rationing mechanism. As a result, prices were kept quite stable and the inflation rate was relatively
low as shown in the graph.

2.2
Period
1980‐1984:

The old system could not be sustained very long as there was no incentive for production
due to the mismatch between supply and demand. To stimulate more output, some small economic
reforms were made, two important ones of which were that farmers were allowed to sell their
surplus products to the government at negotiated prices and the official prices were adjusted to
6
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM





better catch up with the free market ones. The reform, though resulted in a production recovery,
gave rise to a sharp increase in inflation to almost 100% (Klump & Bonschab 2004) due to the
State’s monetary expansion to assist with the rise in the official prices. Nonetheless, inflation in this
period was still partly restrained by the administrative pricing control and the rationing system
(Hung 1999).

2.3
Period
1985‐1989:

The period experienced Doi Moi (which means renovation) that incorporated multiple
important reforms. The first reform in 1985 introduced a number of policies including pegging
official prices to market prices, monetization of workers’ income, removal of the rationing system,
and introduction of the new Dong (Hung 1999). Those led to a dramatic increase in the aggregate
demand as workers had higher incomes and the quantity of goods people could buy was no longer
restricted. The supply side, however, was inelastic as private sector development was blocked and
lands were still managed by the cooperatives, resulting in a surge in prices that had been largely
liberalized. In addition, the rise in the input prices and wages brought about a larger burden on the
budget deficit while the government already had to bear substantial subsidies (up to 5.3% of GPD in
1988 according to WB cited in Leung & Riedel 2001). The result was a rapid increase in money
creation to curb the deficits, leading to the volatile inflation level that peaked at 487% in 1986.

Fortunately, a comprehensive reform package in 1989 helped reverse the situation.

Agricultural lands were returned to farmers and trade was liberalized as private enterprises were
allowed to operate (Ninh 2003), providing a strong incentive to the supply side. Moreover,
government expenditure was cut back significantly with the removal of most subsidies, effectively
reducing the budget deficits from 8% in 1989 to 3.7% in 1990 (Hung 1999). In addition, deposit
rate was increased and access to credit of State-own enterprises (SOEs) was tightly controlled,
helping decrease the money growth. All of these components led to a drop of inflation rate to 35%
in 1989.

2.4
Period
1990
–
2000:

Vietnam’s economy in 1990s was stabilized with generally high economic growth and
slowing down inflation. Tax restructuring and non-inflationary financing resources were the two
important elements that further decreased the inflation level in this period (IMF 1998 cited in Ninh
2003; Hung 1999). The tax reform increased the government revenue, and thus reduced budget
deficit that might lead to monetary expansion. In addition, non-inflationary financing resources
 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 7




helped the government finance possible deficits without creating more money. Both of the two
approaches contributed to dampening the money supply growth. Moreover, due to the trade
liberalization and the lifting of the US embargo in 1994, capital inflow and exports increased
substantially, which eased the balance of payment. The result was impressive: inflation even
dropped to -1.7% in year 2000.

2.5
Period
2001
–
present:

8
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM





Due to different reasons, the inflation level has gradually risen since 2003 and eventually
accelerating with a dangerous pace from year 2007 to present. Inflation from 2004 to 2006 (7.7%,
8.3%, 7.5% for the three years respectively) could be mainly explained by the increase in food
prices and fuel prices (Tumbarello 2007), which was strongly related to the global rising prices of
those commodities and the price liberalization policy (DBS 2008). However, double-digit inflation
from the end of 2007 (12.63% in December-2007) until now involves many other factors. In
August-2008, inflation peaked at 28.3%, the highest rate in 17 years (AP 2008). The situation is
attributed to a combination of different causes, including overheating of the economy, excessive
credit growth, increase in input prices, and inflexible exchange rate policy, which will be discussed
more deeply in later part. In fact, the government has implemented some measures to curb the high
inflation rate such as tight credit control and high interest rates. However, the effectiveness of those
measures still need to be examined in the future.

3.
CAUSES
OF
INFLATION:


3.1
Demand‐pull
factors


3.1.1
Macroeconomic
overheating:

After being the 150th member of Word Trade Organization (WTO) in 2006 (Houng, Patrizia,
Noel and Pritha, 2007), Vietnam experienced soaring capital inflow and consumption. With a boom
in the real estate and stock markets last year, investment grew by 14% along with an excessive
growth in credit by 35% in the first half of 2007 (ADB 2007), leading to an increase in money
supply and aggregate demand. In the same period, due to higher incomes generated in those markets
and wage increases in other sectors, consumption was also pushed up with a rise of 23% in the retail
sector. On the other hand, infrastructure and skilled labor were in shortage (McCarty cited in ABC
2007), meaning aggregate supply was inflexible while aggregate demand was growing fast, which
overheated the economy and caused inflation.

3.1.2
Inflexible
exchange
rate
policy


Since Vietnam’s accession to WTO, a large amount of foreign investment has been poured
into Vietnam and put an upward pressure on the Dong, threatening to weaken export
competitiveness (Theedgedaily 2008). Therefore, from 2004 to 2007, to encourage more foreign
investment and maintain exports, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) applied the fixed exchange rate
 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 9




policy, setting the Dong to depreciate by buying more than 10 billion USD (DBS 2008). As a result,
quantity of Dong flowing in the market went up (Chi and Bao, 2008), leading to a surplus in money
supply and higher liquidity. To solve the problem, SBV has applied sterilization: issuing bonds to
withdraw money from circulation in order to balance the demand and supply. However, because the
sterilization process was incomplete and the pegged exchange rate system was not flexible (DBS
2008), there was still surplus money flowing in the market, subsequently contributing to a higher
aggregate demand and inflation.

3.2
Cost‐push
factors

Cost-push inflation is associated with a leftward shift in aggregate supply due to higher
costs of inputs. Like other countries, Vietnam has partly suffered high inflation because of the rise
in prices of crude oil, foodstuff and construction materials.

• Energy crisis
In 2008, the world price of crude oil has skyrocketed: from $72 per barrel in 2007 to an
expected average $119 per barrel in 2008, increasing by 64.7% (EIA, 2008). This forced the
government to adjust the petroleum price to 19000 VND in July-2008, pushing up the prices of
other commodities. However, the effect of high petroleum price on inflation will be lower in the
future as the price has been reduced to 17000 this August-2008.

Source: EIA – 2008

10
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM





• Food price crisis
Due to the increase in wealth and income in Asia especially China and India and ethanol
subsidies in America, the world prices of food like meat jumped dramatically over the late 2007 and
the early 2008 (The Economist 2007). Because of further price liberalization in the Vietnam’s food
market, domestic food prices have “tracked” the world prices, contributing to a 25% food inflation
rate YoY in February-2008 (DBS 2008). The spike in food price was also exacerbated by the rice
shortage rumor in April-2008, which caused people to hoard rice, leading to a self-fulfilling cycle
(Theedgedaily 2008).

Source: DBS Research Group 2008

• Construction materials
Overall, construction materials' prices rose by 24.9% from 2007 to July 2008 (ROL 2008)
with main materials being steel, brick, and cement. This could be partly explained by the increases
in prices of imports of those materials, which was influenced by the international market (Phuong
2007).

Although Vietnam suffers both cost-push and demand-pull inflations, demand-pull inflation
should receive more concern as it is considered the main cause for higher inflation in Vietnam
compared other countries, which also suffer the same rising costs of inputs (Chi & Bao 2008)
 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 11


4.
EFFECTS
OF
INFLATION:


4.1
Eroding
purchasing
power:



Foreign capital firms State-owned enterprises

Supervisory staff 12 3

Office workers 2.2 1.4

Shop-floor workers 1.3 1.1

Table 1: Average wages in million Dong

Source: BNET, 2008

Though inflation is supposed not to affect people’s purchasing power in the long-term as
income will be automatically adjusted to match the rising prices in the future (Mankiw 2003), it
does in the short-term due to the wage stickiness. In fact, wage earners and firms did take into
account of inflation when setting the salaries. However, as the actual inflation is higher than the
expected one, the living standard of fixed income people, especially the working class, deteriorates.
The low average wages of workers in both state-owned and foreign firms, as shown in the table
above, have triggered thousands of them to go on strike this year (AFP 2008). High inflation may
also redistribute wealth of the society: from fixed income people to variable income ones, possibly
widening the gap between the rich and the poor.

4.2
Effects
on
exchange
rate,
trade
deficit
and
foreign
reserves:

According to the purchasing power parity law (Viney 2007), a relatively high level of
inflation should produce a downward pressure on the value of VND, which is supposed to reduce
the VND/USD exchange rate. However, in pursuit of stabilizing the exchange rate to avoid market
volatility and import inflation, the SBV has been defending the Dong by using foreign reserves to
buy VND, helping the currency appreciating against the inflationary pressure. Nonetheless, while
the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is kept in control, the real effective exchange rate
12
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM





(REER), which reflects the relative prices of exchanged goods, is rising sharply corresponding to
the high inflation level (Theedgedaily 2008). As a result, exports become relatively more expensive
and imports become relatively cheaper. This not only undermines the competitiveness of exports
but also aggravates the trade deficit, which is better illustrated in the graph below:

Source: Theedgedaily – 2008

Another indirect issue of current inflation is when the SBV uses foreign reserves to defend
the Dong, it is facing a risk of depleting the foreign reserves, which may lead currency crisis just
like Thailand in 1997 (Business News 2008). In short, the high rate of inflation puts the SBV in a
catch-22 situation: a Dong appreciation will help curb import inflation but widen the trade deficit
and possibly cause a currency crisis while a Dong depreciation will improve the trade balance but
may worsen inflation due to higher prices of imports (Intellasia 2008)

4.3
Storage
of
other
assets:

Inflation is forcing the Dong to depreciate, encouraging people to store other assets such as
USD or gold to protect their wealth. Thus, hoarding of gold has actually risen, leading to a sharp
increase in gold imports with 1.2 billion USD imports of gold in the first four months of 2008,
compounding the high trade deficit (Theedgedaily 2008).
 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 13


4.4
Discouragement
of
investment

As inflation is difficultly predictable, companies face confusion and inconvenience when
planning for investment (Mankiw 2003). The higher the inflation rate is, the more uncertain it is for
firms to predict the future costs and revenue, deterring them from easily accepting investment
projects. More over, cost-push inflation, one component of the current inflation, increases the firms’
input costs, causing great difficulties to their operations, especially when the tightening policy takes
place.

5.
REMEDIES:


5.1
Monetary
policy:


• Tightening money supply:
One of the first remedies the SBV should consider is a tightening monetary policy, including
bond issuance, raising compulsory reserve ratio, and tighter credit control. SBV can force
commercial banks to purchase bonds to reduce the money supply. A similar result can be achieved
by a higher reserve ratio imposed on the banks, effectively reducing their lending cash available.
Decrease in money supply resulting from the two measures may lower the aggregate demand due to
the consequent higher interest rates, leading to lower inflation. In addition, access to credit,
especially that of inefficient state-owned enterprises (Minh 2008), needs to be tightly controlled to
restrain the credit growth. This can only be done by closely supervising the compliance of the
commercial banks with the regulations on lending and credit quality. One disadvantage of the
remedy is if applied for too long, it may strongly discourage investment due to the higher costs of
taking loans enterprises have to bear, possibly leading to unemployment and even recession.
Moreover, it may also cause a “deposit interest war” among banks to improve their liquidity, which
actually has happened, bringing about their lower profitability, especially that of small banks (VNS
2008). As a result, higher lending interest rates will come, putting more burden on enterprises.
Regarding the credit control, if the policy is too rigid, it may cause harm to export activities and
production of key commodities (Huong cited in VietnamNet 2008)
14
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM





• Exchange rate policy:
- Fixed exchange rate: in current situation, a fixed exchange rate regime may prevent the
dong from weakening too fast, avoiding a surge in imports’ prices when demand for many kinds of
imports is inelastic, helping lower the inflationary pressure (VNS 2008). However, the policy can
lead to a higher trade deficit and a serious drain on foreign reserve. In the long-term, it will even
trigger inflation again as discussed earlier

- Floating exchange rate: as mentioned above, a floating exchange rate policy will prevent
an increase in money supply in the future, which is a cause of inflation, as it eases the need for
SBV’s intervention and sterilization (Ishii 2007). However, if immediately floated at present, the
exchange rate will cause “significant volatility” and worsened inflation due to higher imports’
prices as commented by Tai Hui - bank’s senior Southeast Asian researcher (VNS 2008).

5.2
Fiscal
policy:


• Cutting of government spending: a reduction in government spending will decrease the
aggregate demand, curbing the high inflation level. Public spending on infrastructure projects is the
most important one to be cut. However, only inefficient and unimportant projects should be
cancelled. Thus, an effective system for monitoring and evaluating public projects efficiency must
be established. In addition, administrative expenses in state-owned corporations must be closely
supervised and saving in this sector should be promoted
• Import taxes: as one cause of inflation is the rising costs of foodstuff and materials, a
possible solution is cutting import tariffs on those goods to ease the price pressure. However, lower
tariffs may lead to budget deficit as State revenue is reduced. It may also aggravate the trade deficit
due to the consequent higher demand for imports (Nghia cited in Laodong 2007).

5.3
Supply
side
policy:


• Encourage production:
As inflation relates to aggregate demand growing faster than aggregate supply, it is
suggested that the aggregate supply should be pushed up to bring down the increasing price
level. This can be achieved by higher development in agricultural, industrial, and service
sectors. As ordered by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (VietnamNet 2008), growth in
agriculture must be maintained with the support of the government in dealing with disasters and
epidemics, which happen frequently in Vietnam. Obstacles in administrative procedures must
also be removed to promote production development. More importantly, technology and quality
 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 15




of labor, which are two determinants of aggregate supply in the long term (Mankiw 2003), need
to be focused by investment in research and education. This, however, may face difficulty in the
short-term as the investment can be deterred by the tightening policy to fight inflation.

• Stabilize and subsidization:

According to the Prime Minister, price stabilization of basic commodities and services such
as electricity, fertilizer, cement, and transport fares, must be retained (VietnamNet 2008). The
solution is the government will keep prices of those things low to reduce the effect of inflation.
However, this comes at a cost that low prices will lead to no incentive for production (Du 2008),
resulting in lower quality and even lower quantity supplied. Regarding petroleum, there is an
idea that it should be subsidized by the government to curb inflation despite the high oil prices
of the world. Nonetheless, the costs of doing so are not low, including higher budget deficit,
distortion in resource allocation, and prevention of developing more efficient alternative modes
of transportation (Hameed 2008).

6.
RECOMMENDATION:


The final recommendation we have come up with is a combination of different remedies rather
than a single solution:

- Monetary policy: issuing compulsory bonds, raising reserve requirements for commercial
banks, and tightening credit growth are the right remedies the government should implement to
reduce the money supply. Reserve ratio can be set at 12% for short-term deposits and 6% for
long-term deposits. To prevent the “deposit interest war”, SBV can impose an appropriate
basic interest rate on banks so that their rates cannot exceed more than 150% of the basic rate.
With the tight credit control, access to credit of producers of key commodities in agriculture
and export activities will be given more flexibility to encourage production. Those remedies
can only last for one and a half years to prevent economy stagnation and high unemployment.
Regarding the exchange rate policy, a fixed exchange rate will be maintained in the very short
term to avoid rising prices in imports. However, the trading band will be widened gradually
combined with attempts to increase exports and decrease imports to reduce the trade deficit and
ease the running out of foreign reserves, aiming at a floating exchange rate in the next two
years.
 16
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM





- Fiscal policy: cutting public spending on unimportant projects such as buildings and cultural
houses is a good remedy. However, important projects related to energy and traffic system
must be continued. A monitoring system to supervise project efficiency will be set up to clear
out inefficient plans. In the short-term, import taxes on important commodities such as
construction materials and foodstuff will be cut by 30% while tariffs on luxury goods such as
autos and alcohol will be raised by 60% to offset the rise in trade deficit and budget deficit.

- Supply side policy: prices of electricity, cement, fertilizer and transport fees will be kept
unchanged until the middle of 2009 to mitigate the inflationary pressure. After that, those
prices will be more flexible to provide incentives for production. Oil subsidy, however, will not
be granted due to many drawbacks as discussed earlier. In the long-term, what most important
is more investment must be poured in technology and education to bring aggregate supply to a
higher level.

ACTION PLAN:

Task Duration

Start End

Bond issuance (25 trillion VND) Jan – 2008 N/A

Increasing reserve ratio (12% for short-term deposits and 6% for Jan – 2008 Jun – 2009
long-term deposits

Tighter credit control Jan - 2008 Dec – 2009

Fixed exchange rate with a gradually widened trading band Jan - 2008 Jun – 2009

Floating exchange rate Jun - 2009 N/A

Cutting government spending Jan – 2008 Jun - 2009

Cutting import taxes on commodities by 30% and raising tariffs on Jan - 2008 Jun - 2009
luxury goods by 60%

Price stabilization for electricity, cement, fertilizer, and transport fees Jan - 2008 Jun - 2009

Higher investment in technology and education Jan - 2008 N/A

 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 17


7.
CONCLUSION:

After 1975, Vietnam’s economy experienced skyrocketing inflation levels in the late 80s but
then enjoyed a stable growth and low inflation in the 90s. However, inflation again has become a
threat to the country in recent years, with the latest rate peaking at 28.3% this August-2008. The
three main causes identified for the situation are the overheating of the economy, the inflexible
exchange rate policy from 2004 until early-2007, and the rising prices of important commodities
mainly influenced by the international market. The high inflation consequently has eroded the
purchasing power of fixed-income people, increased inequality in the society, aggravated trade
deficit with a threat of currency crisis, and discouraged investment. Among remedies available,
tightening monetary policy and cutting in government spending are most important in the short-
term while a flexible exchange rate policy and larger investments in technology and education are
more important in the long-term.






REFERENCE:



• ABC
2007,
VIETNAM:
Economy
showing
possible
signs
of
overheating,
Australian

Broadcasting
Corporation,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/programguide/stories/200708/s2013591.htm
>


• ADB
2007,
Vietnam,
Asian
Development
Bank,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,
<

www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2007/update/VIE.pdf
>


• AFP
2008,
Thousands
of
workers
strike
in
inflation­battered
Vietnam,
Agence
France‐
Presse,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gmVGKJRKhzCT0REh8ZRWGAzCqCHA
>

• AP
2008,
Vietnam
inflation
hits
28
percent,
trade
gap
grows,
The
Associated
Press,

viewed
1
Sep
2008,
<
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/25/business/AS‐
Vietnam‐Inflation.php
>


• BNET
2008,
Vietnam:
Minimum
Wages
Increasing
in
October,
BNET,
viewed
1

September
2008,

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5358/is_200610/ai_n21400020



• Business
News
2008,
Vietnam
market
stabilizes
on
lower
inflation,
trade
deficit
data,

The
Monsters
and
Critics,
WotR
Ltd.,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,
<

18
 INFLATION
IN
VIETNAM





http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1412814.php/Viet
nam_market_stabilizes_on_lower_inflation_trade_deficit_data
>


• Chi,
P.
D.
&
Bao,
N.
H.
2008,
Bitter
pill
may
alleviate
Vietnam
inflation
woes,
Thanh
Nien

Daily,
viewed
31
Aug
2008,

http://www.thanhniennews.com/features/?catid=10&newsid=35250



• DBS
2008,
Vietnam:
Inflation
challenge
ahead,
DBS
Bank
Ltd.,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

https://www.dbsvresearch.com/research%5CDBS%5Cresearch.nsf/(vwAllDocs)/6E4
0FB0AFC50E41B4825740B0028A1DB/$FILE/vn_2008mar13.pdf




• Du
2008,
Solutions
for
Vietnam’s
power
industry,
Thanh
Nien
News,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<
http://www.thanhniennews.com/commentaries/?catid=11&newsid=40887
>



• EIA
2008,
Short­Term
Energy
Outlook,
Energy
Information
Administration,
viewed
1

Sep
2008,
<
http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo
>

• Hameed
2008,
Cost
and
benefit
of
oil
subsidy,
The
Dawn
Media
Group,
viewed
1
Sep

2008,
<
http://www.dawn.com/2008/06/02/ebr12.htm
>

• Houng,
L.
Patrizia,
T.
Noel
S.
and
Pritha,
M.
2007,
VIETNAM
–
Selected
Issues,

International
Monetary
Fund,
viewed
30
Aug
2008,
<

http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/cr07385.pdf
>


• Hung
1999,
The
inflation
of
Vietnam
in
transition,
CAS
&
Cimda,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

http://webh01.ua.ac.be/cas/PDF/CAS22.pdf

• Intellasia
2008,
Dong
pushed
for
depreciation,
Intellasia
News
Online,
viewed
1
Sep

2008,
<
http://www.intellasia.net/news/articles/finance/111243641.shtml
>

• Investopedia
2008,
Inflation:
What
is
inflation?,
Investopedia
ULC,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://www.investopedia.com/university/inflation/inflation1.asp>

• Ishii
2007,
Consultative
Group
Meeting
for
Vietnam,
International
Monetary
Fund,

viewed
1
Sep
2008,
<
http://www.imf.org/external/np/dm/2007/121007.htm
>

• Klump,
R
&
Bonschab,
T
2004,
A
country
case
study
on
Vietnam,
AFD,
BMZ
(GTZ,
KfW

Development
Bank),
DFID
&
The
World
Bank,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPGI/Resources/342674‐
1115051237044/oppgvietnam.pdf>

• Laodong
2007,
Chong
lam
phat
–
phai
thay
doi
tu
quan
diem,
Lao
Dong
,
viewed
1
Sep

2008,
<
http://www.laodong.com.vn/Home/kinhte/2007/8/52194.laodong
>

• Leung,
S
&
Riedel,
J
2001,
The
Role
of
the
State
in
Vietnam’s
Economic
Transition,

Australian
National
University
&
Johns
Hopkins
University



• Mankiw,
N
2003,
Principle
of
macroeconomics,
3rd
edn,
Thomson.


 RESEARCH
PAPER
–
G3
–
TEAM
IPO
 19




• Minh
2008,
Investment
inefficiency
causes
high
inflation
rate,
Thanh
Nien
News,
viewed

1
Sep
2008,

<http://www.thanhniennews.com/commentaries/?catid=11&newsid=35920
>

• Ninh
2003,
Investment
of
rice
mills
in
Vietnam:
the
role
of
financial
market
imperfections

and
uncertainty,
University
of
Groningen,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

http://dissertations.ub.rug.nl/faculties/eco/2003/l.khuong.ninh/



• Phuong
2007,
Vật
liệu
xây
dựng
đồng
loạt
tăng
giá,
Thanh
Nien
online,
viewed
1
Sep

2008,
<
http://www1.thanhnien.com.vn/Kinhte/2007/12/9/218764.tno
>

• ROL
2008,
Construction
material
price
rises
thwart
housing
plans,
Vietnam
Real
estate

Online,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://rol.vn/weben/tintuc/tintucdiaoc/2008/07/29/120000/7348/
>


• The
Economist
2007,
Food
prices:
Cheap
no
more,
The
Economist
Newspaper
Ltd.,

viewed
1
Sep
2008,
<

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10250420
>

• Theedgedaily
2008,
Is
Vietnam
facing
a
currency
crisis?,
The
Edge
Daily,
viewed
1
Sep

2008,

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_802d7
634‐cb73c03a‐10837170‐985b5aa1


• Tumbarello
2007,
Understanding
inflation
in
Vietnam,
VietnamNet
Bridge,
viewed
1

Sep
2008,
<
http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2007/02/665915/
>

• US
Department
of
State
2007,
Background
Note:
Vietnam,
US
Departmenr
of
Stare,

viewed
1
Sep
2008,
<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/4130.htm>

• VietnamNet
2008,
PM
spells
out
solutions
to
inflation
and
sustainable
growth,

VietnamNet
2008
Bridge,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2008/04/779318/
>


• VietnamNet
2008,
Real
positive
interest
rate
policy
needs
reconsideration:
VNBA,

VietnamNet
Bridge,
viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://english.vietnamnet.vn/interviews/2008/08/798236/
>

• Viney,
C
2007,
Financial
Institutions,
Instruments
and
Markets,
5th
edn,
McGraw
Hill

Australia
Pty
Limited,
North
Ryde,
NSW

• VNS
2008,
Banks
dangle
higher
deposit
interest
rates,
but
at
a
cost,
Vietnam
News,

viewed
1
Sep
2008,

<http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/showarticle.php?num=01BAN210208
>


• VNS
2008,
Standard
Chartered
advises
exchange­rate
caution,
Vietnam
News,
viewed
1

Sep
2008,

<http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/showarticle.php?num=01BUS290408
>