Decline-Curve Analysis For Gas Wells

Petroleum Engineering 613 — Natural Gas Engineering Lecture 8 — Decline-Curve Analysis for Gas Wells
Decline-Curve Analysis for Gas Wells
At the end of this module, you will:

●Be able to sketch the Arps exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic decline relations.
●Be able to state and derive the exponential rate decline relation (Eq. 9.2).
●Be able to derive Eq. 9.10 (cumulative exponential) and explain its practical aspects.
●Be able to state the form of the harmonic rate decline relation (Eq. 9.11).
●Be able to derive Eq. 9.16 (cumulative harmonic) and explain its practical aspects.
●Be able to state the form of the hyperbolic rate decline relation (Eq. 9.1)
●Be able to derive Eq. 9.21 (cumulative hyperbolic) and explain its practical aspects.
●Be able to describe the concept of a "decline type curve".
●Be able to sketch the Fetkovich "rate/time decline type curve" (i.e., Fig. 9.10).
●Be able to explain the flow regimes seen on the Fetkovich decline type curve.
●Be able to apply the dimensionless variables given by Eqs. 9.22-9.24.
●Be able to state the procedure to apply the Fetkovich decline type curve.
●Be able to demonstrate the solution of Example 9.2 (reproduce all details).
●Be able to sketch the Carter "rate/time decline type curve" (i.e., Fig. 9.11).
●Be able to explain the flow regimes seen on the Carter decline type curve.
●Be able to state the procedure to apply the Carter decline type curve.
●Be able to demonstrate the solution of Example 9.3 (reproduce all details).
●Be able to explain the strengths/limitations of using "decline type curve" analysis.
●Be familiar with "decline type curve" analysis without boundary-dominated flow.
●Be familiar with "decline type curve" analysis for multi-well reservoirs.
From: Lee, W.J. and Wattenbarger, R.A.: Gas Reservoir Engineering, SPE (1996).
Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 1


Summary of Arps Time-Rate and Time-Cumulative Relations
Time-Flowrate Time-Cumulative Production

Exponential: (b=0) Exponential: (b=0)

qi
q  qi exp(  Di t ) N p  [1  exp(  Di t )]
Di
Hyperbolic: (0<b<1) Hyperbolic: (0<b<1)
qi qi
q Np  [1  (1  bDi t )11 / b ]
(1 bDi t )1 / b (1  b) Di
Harmonic: (b=1) Harmonic: (b=1)
qi qi
q N p  ln(1  Di t )
(1  Di t ) Di

Arps Exponential Decline Relation
Constant
"Decline"
Flowrate Parameter
q  qi exp( Di t )
Initial Time
Rate
Parameter

Derivation of Arps Exponential Decline Relation
Derivation of the Exponential Rate Decline Relation

Oil Material Balance Relation:
1 Bo
p  pi  Np
Nct Boi
Oil Pseudosteady-State Flow Relation:
 o Bo  1  4 1 A 
p  p wf  bo, pss qo bo, pss  141.2  ln    s
kh  2  e C A rw2  
 
Steps:
1. Differentiate both relations with respect to time.
2. Assume pwf = constant (eliminates d(pwf)/dt term).
3. Equate results, yields 1st order ordinary differential equation.
4. Integrate.
5. Exponentiate result.  1 1 Bo 
q  qi exp Di t   Di  
 bo, pss Nct Boi 

From: Blasingame, T.A. and Rushing, J.A.: "A Production-Based Method for Direct Estimation of Gas-
in-Place and Reserves," paper SPE 98042 presented at the 2005 SPE Eastern Regional Meeting
held in Morgantown, W.V., 14–16 September 2005.
Petroleum Engineering 613 — Natural Gas Engineering
Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U.

Derivation of Arps Exponential Decline Relation (SPE 98042)
Lecture 8 — Decline-Curve Analysis for Gas Wells
Slide — 5
Arps Hyperbolic Decline Relation
Initial
Rate
Parameter
Flowrate
qi
q Arps
1/ b "Hyperbolic"
(1 bDi t ) Parameter
Arps
"Hyperbolic" Time
Parameter
Constant
"Decline"
Parameter

Hyperbolic Decline — Orientation

(Details of derivation are omitted, see
paper SPE 19009, Camacho and Raghavan
(1989)).
a. Hyperbolic flowrate relations for the b. Hyperbolic decline type curve with data
case of constant pressure production simulation performance data superimposed
from a solution gas drive reservoir (Camacho and Raghavan (1989)).
(Camacho and Raghavan (1989)).
Discussion: Arps' Hyperbolic Time-Rate Relation

●Assumes decline parameter based on average mobility/compressibility.
●Assumes hyperbolic parameter = f[d/dt(average mobility/compressibility)].

Derivation of Arps Hyperbolic Decline Relation (SPE 98042)
Slide — 8

Derivation of Arps Hyperbolic Decline Relation (SPE 98042)
Slide — 9
Arps Harmonic Decline Relation
Initial
Rate
Parameter
Flowrate
qi
q
(1  Di t )
Constant Time
"Decline"
Parameter


Summary of Arps Rate-Cumulative Relations
Flowrate- Cumulative Production

Exponential: (b=0)
q  qi  Di N p Plot of: q versus Np

Hyperbolic: (0<b<1)
1
 N p  (1b)  qi  Plot of:
q  qi 1   N   log(q/qi) versus log[1-(Np/N)]
 N   (1  b) Di 
qi b Plot of:
or ( N  Np )  q1b
(1  b) Di log(N-Np) versus log(q)
Harmonic: (b=1)
 Di  Plot of: log(q) versus Np

q  qi exp  N p 
 qi 

Example 9.1 — Lee and Wattenbarger

1:3 Slope
1:1 Slope


Exponential
Trend




1:1 Slope


Harmonic
Trend


Exponential
Trend

(Production) Decline Type Curve Analysis

Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — Empirical

From: Fetkovich, M.J. : "Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves," JPT (June 1980) 1065-77.
Fetkovich "Empirical" Decline Type Curve:

●Log-log "type curve" for the Arps "decline curves" (Fetkovich, 1973).
●Initially designed as a graphical solution of the Arps' relations.
Van Everdingen-Hurst Type Curves — Radial Flow

 "Analytical" Rate Decline Curves:
 Data from van Everdingen and
Hurst (1949), re-plotted as a rate

decline plot (Fetkovich, 1973).
 This looks promising — but this is
going to be one really big "type
curve."
 What can we do? Try to collapse
all of the trends to a single trend
during boundary-dominated flow
(Fetkovich, 1973).
 From: SPE 04629 — Fetkovich (1973).
 "Analytical" stems are another name
for transient flow behavior, which can
yield estimates of reservoir flow
properties.

Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — Analytical Transient Radial Flow Stems

Fetkovich "Analytical" Decline Type Curve: (constant pwf)

● Log-log "type curve" for transient flow behavior (Fetkovich, 1973).
● First "tie" between pressure transient and production data analysis.
Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — Analytical and Empirical Stems

Fetkovich "Composite" Decline Type Curve:

●Assumes constant bottomhole pressure production.
●Radial flow in a finite radial reservoir system (single well).
Fetkovich Example Analysis — Decline Type Curve

Fetkovich Example Match: SPE 04629 — (Fetkovich)

●Lack of early time data is an omen of things to come.
●Late time data follow an exponential trend (constant pwf).
Fetkovich Decline Type Curves — General
Discussion:
●Assumptions:
 Constant bottomhole pressure.

 "Liquid" flow (not gas).
●"Empirical" Decline Type Curve:
 "Arps" empirical trends presented in
dimensionless "decline" format for
"boundary-dominated flow behavior"
(Fetkovich, 1973).

●"Analytical" Transient Type Curve:
 Collapses the transient flow trends
(dimensionless "decline" rates) into
"stems" related to reservoir size and
skin factor (Fetkovich, 1973).
●Comments (gas flow behavior):
 Fetkovich (and others) have noted
that most gas cases lie on or near the
stems for 0.4<b<0.6.
 No (direct) physical support for this
"rule of thumb."

Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — b>1

Fetkovich "Composite" Decline Type Curve: b>1 Cases

● b=1 is the constant rate case — no theory to support b>1 cases.
● Rule: Transient flow — q concave UP, PSS flow — q concave DOWN.
Reconstruction of Fetkovich-Carter Type Curves

Carter, R.D.: "Type Curves for Finite Radial and Linear Gas-Flow Systems: Constant-Terminal
 Reconstruction of Fetkovich (SPE 04629 —

1973) and Carter (SPE 12917 — 1985) type
Pressure Case," SPEI (Oct. 1985) 719-28.
curves for the gas case (various pwf/pi).

 Type Curves for Gas Wells:
 Gas cases cannot be fully represented
using Arps' (hyperbolic) relations.
However, the Arps' relations are often an
acceptable approximation.
 Constant pwf gas cases are dependent on
the pwf/pi ratio (path-dependent non-  (Zoom View) Reconstruction of Fetkovich
linearity) — and cannot be extended to (SPE 04629 — 1973) and Carter (SPE 12917
variable-rate, variable pressure drop. — 1985) type curves for the gas case
(various pwf/pi).

Fetkovich-Carter Decline Type Curve




Modern Time-Rate Analysis

Work Path ― Analysis of Well Performance
Completions Production Reservoir Fluids Geomodel
Time-
Time- Rate- Reservoir
Rate Pressure Model
Rates
Rates
Rates
Pressure
Time Time Pressure Time
Time Time
Model: Time-Rate Model: Time-Rate-Pressure Model: Time-Rate-Pressure

Basis: Proxy model Basis: Analytical/Numerical Basis: Full Numerical
●Predictions ●Predictions ●Predictions
●EUR ●EUR/SRV ●EUR/SRV
●Correlations ●Estimate Properties ●Flow Mechanisms
Time: Minutes/well Time: ~1 hour/well Time: Days to weeks/well
Typical Flow Regimes in Unconventional Reservoir Systems

Linear Flow:
(fracture flow does not Required Model Parameters:
interfere) ● Permeability (k)
● Fracture half-length (xf)
● Fracture conductivity (Fc)
● Drainage area (A)
● Skin factor (s)
● Well length (Lw)
● Number of fractures (nf)
"SRV" Flow: ("depletion") "Post-SRV" Flow:

(fracture flow does interfere) ("Compound Linear Flow")

(Formation) Linear Flow — Theory
Solution for a Single Fracture: (transient linear flow)
pD   t Dxf
q
1
8.128494
( pi  pwf )
1 ct
B 
k Axf
1
t
Axf  2 xf h 
1  1 1 ct 
q  C Axf  C  ( pi  p wf ) k
t  8 . 128494 B  
Note:
Additive Fractures: (transient linear flow) These solutions are only valid for transient
linear flow [i.e., the case of non-interfering
pressure distributions (due to the fractures)].
q tot  C [ Axf,1  Axf, 2 

1
Axf, 3  Axf, 4  ...  Axf, n ]
+ + + → t
1
q tot  C ( Axf ) tot
t
(Formation) Linear Flow — Practice (Synthetic Example)
Formation Linear Flow

● Log-log diagnostic plot: log[q(t)] versus log[t ] (slope = -1:2)
● "qDb" (time-rate) plot: log[q(t)] log[D(t)] log[b(t)] versus log[t ]
● "Traditional" plot: q(t) versus 1/SQRT[t ] (straight-line portion)
● Extrapolation using a linear flow model will over-predict EUR…
Region of
over-
extrapolation…

Time-Rate Relations — Power Law Exponential Rate Model

Power-Law Exponential: (PLE) Stretched Exponential: (SEM)
— Observed Behavior of D(t): — Observed Behavior of q(t):
1 dq (t )
D(t )    D  nDˆ i t (1 n ) q (t )  qî exp[(t /  ) n ]
q (t ) dt
— Integrating to solve for q(t): — Differentiating to solve for D(t):
ˆ 1 dq(t )
q (t )  qi exp[ D t  Di t ]
ˆ n
D(t )    n  nt n 1
q (t ) dt
— Differentiating to solve for b(t): — Differentiating to solve for b(t):
nDˆ i (1  n) 1  n n n
b(t )  t n
b(t )   t
ˆ
[nDi  D t (1 n ) 2
] n
Literature: Valkó (2009)
● Kohlrausch (1854). q(t)  qî exp[ (t / )n ]
● Phillips (1996).
● Kisslinger (1993) Jones (1942) and Arps (1945)
● Decays in random, disordered,   D t m1 
chaotic, heterogeneous systems
(e.g., relaxation, aftershock decay q(t )  qo exp  o 
rates, etc.). 100 (m  1) 
Discussion:
● Models are the same when D∞ = 0.
● The Power-Law Exponential model was derived from observations (Blasingame/Ilk).
● The Stretched-Exponential model was taken from a statistics text (Valko).
Time-Rate Relations — Power-Law Exponential Rate Relation
PLE Rate Relation:

q (t )  qî exp[  D t  Dˆ i t n ]
Decline Function: D(t)
1 dq
D(t )  
q dt
Clean-up/
 D  nDˆ i t (1n)
flowback effects
are not
Hyperbolic Function: b(t)
significant for
this case d  1 
b(t )   
dt  D(t ) 
nDˆ i (1  n)
 t n
[nDˆ i  D t (1n) ]2
Ilk, D.: "Well Performance Analysis for Low to Ultra-Low Permeability

Reservoir Systems," Ph.D. Dissertation, Texas A&M University,
College Station, TX (Aug 2010).

Introduction — Modern Time-Rate Relations
DCA Model Rate Relation

Power Law Exponential Model q (t )  qˆ gi exp[ D t  Dˆ i t n ]
Stretched Exponential Decline Model q (t )  qî exp[[t /  ]n ]
 a 
Duong Model q (t )  q1t  m exp  (t1m  1), q1 at t  1
1  m 
aˆKnˆ t n 1
ˆ
Logistic Growth Model q (t ) 
ˆ
(aˆ  t n ) 2
 1   t  
 t 
Weibull Model q (t )  M   exp    
      
 
PLE: Derived by introducing terminal decline D∞ in D-parameter for matching BDF.

SEDM: Linear superposition of simple exponential decays — analogous to PLE.
Duong: Straight line behavior of q/Gp vs. Time (log-log) plot for linear/bilinear flow regime.
LGM: Population growth models — modified form of hyperbolic logistic growth models.
Weibull: Application of Weibull distribution for modeling time to failure.

Time-Rate Behavior — Flow Regimes for a Multi-Fracture Horizontal Well
Pseudo-elliptical flow regime (flow

from matrix to collection of fractures)
might exist after fracture
interference.
EURLF (VERY OPTIMISTIC)
EURDep (CONSERVATIVE
???)
Flow Regimes: (Barnett Shale Example)

● Schematic illustrates flow regimes exhibited by time-rate-pressure data.
● Duration/existence of flow regimes is DIFFERENT for each play.
Calibration — Linear Flow (Gas Shales)

Data taken from publicly available sources — Horizontal Shale (Dry) Gas Wells ONLY
Discussion:
● START of "Linear Flow" (~3-6 months). Heckman, T.L., et al (2013): Best Practices for Reserves Estimation in
● END of "Linear Flow" (~9-36 months). Unconventional Reservoirs — Present and Future Considerations,
Keynote presentation presented at the 2013 SPE Unconventional
● "Linear Flow" is represented by b = 2. Resources Conference, The Woodlands, TX (USA), 10-12 April 2013.
● EUR requires at least 20+ months (except Haynesville ~1 year; and Barnett ~3 years).
Calibration — Linear Flow (Gas Shales)

Data taken from publicly available sources — Horizontal Shale (Dry) Gas Wells ONLY
Discussion: Heckman, T.L., et al (2013): Best Practices for Reserves Estimation in
● START of "Linear Flow" (~3-6 months). Unconventional Reservoirs — Present and Future Considerations,
Keynote presentation presented at the 2013 SPE Unconventional
● END of "Linear Flow" (~9-36 months). Resources Conference, The Woodlands, TX (USA), 10-12 April 2013.
● "Linear Flow" is represented by linear trends on these plots.

● Square root time plot used to show linear portion of trend (Gp(t) vs. SQRT(t) is most clear).
(Sort of) "Big Data" Analysis ― Barnett Shale Example (Data prior to Mar 2013)
Correlation of Gp,1Yr vs. Initial Gas Production Histogram of Gp,1Yr (Barnett Shale horizontal
(Barnett Shale horizontal gas wells). gas wells).
Correlation of Gp,1Yr using Initial Gas Production Histogram of EUR30Yr (Barnett Shale horizontal
and various completion parameters (Barnett Shale gas wells).
horizontal gas wells).

Decline-Curve Analysis For Gas Wells

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Petroleum Engineering 613 — Natural Gas Engineering Lecture 8 — Decline-Curve Analysis for Gas Wells

Decline-Curve Analysis for Gas Wells

At the end of this module, you will:

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 1

Decline-Curve Analysis for Gas Wells

Time-Flowrate Time-Cumulative Production

Exponential: (b=0) Exponential: (b=0)

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 2

Arps Exponential Decline Relation

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 3

Derivation of Arps Exponential Decline Relation

Derivation of the Exponential Rate Decline Relation

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 4

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U.

Arps Hyperbolic Decline Relation

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 6

Hyperbolic Decline — Orientation

Discussion: Arps' Hyperbolic Time-Rate Relation

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U.

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U.

Arps Harmonic Decline Relation

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 10

Decline-Curve Analysis for Gas Wells

Flowrate- Cumulative Production

q  qi  Di N p Plot of: q versus Np

 Di  Plot of: log(q) versus Np

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 11

Example 9.1 — Lee and Wattenbarger

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 12

Example 9.1 — Lee and Wattenbarger

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 13

Example 9.1 — Lee and Wattenbarger

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 14

Example 9.1 — Lee and Wattenbarger

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 15

Example 9.1 — Lee and Wattenbarger

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 16

Example 9.1 — Lee and Wattenbarger

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 17

(Production) Decline Type Curve Analysis

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 18

Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — Empirical

Fetkovich "Empirical" Decline Type Curve:

Van Everdingen-Hurst Type Curves — Radial Flow

Hurst (1949), re-plotted as a rate

 From: SPE 04629 — Fetkovich (1973).

Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — Analytical Transient Radial Flow Stems

Fetkovich "Analytical" Decline Type Curve: (constant pwf)

Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — Analytical and Empirical Stems

Fetkovich "Composite" Decline Type Curve:

Fetkovich Example Analysis — Decline Type Curve

Fetkovich Example Match: SPE 04629 — (Fetkovich)

Fetkovich Decline Type Curves — General

 Constant bottomhole pressure.

 From: SPE 04629 — Fetkovich (1973).

 From: SPE 04629 — Fetkovich (1973).

Fetkovich Decline Type Curve — b>1

Fetkovich "Composite" Decline Type Curve: b>1 Cases

Reconstruction of Fetkovich-Carter Type Curves

 Reconstruction of Fetkovich (SPE 04629 —

curves for the gas case (various pwf/pi).

Tom BLASINGAME | t-blasingame@tamu.edu | Texas A&M U. Slide — 26

Fetkovich-Carter Decline Type Curve