STAT/MATH 394 A - PROBABILITY I – UW

Autumn Quarter 2016 Néhémy Lim

HW4: Conditional Probability and Independence (2)–

Solutions

Problem 1. On rainy days, Joe is late to work with probability 0.3; on nonrainy
days, he is late with probability 0.1. With probability 0.7, it will rain tomorrow.
(a) Find the probability that Joe is early tomorrow.
Answer. Let R be the event that it rains tomorrow and let L the event that
Joe is late tomorrow. Then, by the law of total probability, the probability
that Joe is early (i.e. not late) tomorrow is given by

P(Lc ) = P(Lc ∩ R) + P(Lc ∩ Rc )

= P(Lc |R)P(R) + P(Lc |Rc )P(Rc )
= (1 − P(L|R))P(R) + (1 − P(L|Rc ))(1 − P(R))
= (1 − 0.3) · 0.7 + (1 − 0.1)(1 − 0.7)

(b) Given that Joe was early, what is the conditional probability that it rained?
Answer. The requested probability is given by the Bayes’s formula.

P(Lc |R)P(R)
P(R|Lc ) =
P(Lc )
(1 − P(L|R))P(R)
=
(1 − P(L|R))P(R) + (1 − P(L|Rc ))(1 − P(R))
(1 − 0.3) · 0.7
=
(1 − 0.3) · 0.7 + (1 − 0.1)(1 − 0.7)

Problem 2. Suppose we have 10 coins such that if the i-th coin is flipped,
heads will appear with probability i/10, for i ∈ {1, 2, . . . , 10}. When one of the
coins is randomly selected and flipped, it shows heads. What is the conditional
probability that it was the fifth coin?
Answer. We consider the following events:
• We denote Ci the event that the i-th coin is selected, for i ∈ {1, 2, . . . , 10}.
Since the coin is randomly selected, we can assume that all coins are
equally likely to be picked, that is P(Ci ) = 1/10 , for i ∈ {1, 2, . . . , 10};
• H is the event that the selected coin comes up heads.

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If the coin shows heads, the conditional probability that it was the fifth coin is
given by the Second Bayes’ formula:
P(H|C5 )P(C5 )
P(C5 |H) = P10
i=1 P(H|Ci )P(Ci )
5/10 · 1/10
= P10
i=1 i/10 · 1/10
5
=
10 · 11/2
1
= .
11

Problem 3. A couple has one daughter that takes a Probability class. Her
parents want her to call them at the end of the quarter to know whether she
passes the class. Actually, she tells her parents that she will proceed as follows.
She will flip a fair coin. If the coin lands on tails, she will not call her parents.
If the coin comes up heads, she will call if she passes the class and will not call
if she fails the class. Let α be the probability that she fails the class and let β
be the conditional probability that she fails the class given that she does not
call. Find β in terms of α.
Answer. Let F be the event that the student fails the class, C be the event
that she calls her parents and H be the event that the coins lands on heads.
The conditional probability β is given by:
P(F ∩ C c )
β = P(F |C c ) =
P(C c )
The event that she does not call, C c occurs when either the coin lands on tails
or the coin comes up heads and she fails the class. In other words, C c is the
union of mutually exclusive events H c and H ∩ F . Therefore,

P(C c ) = P(H c ∪ (H ∩ F ))
= P(H c ) + P(H ∩ F )
= P(H c ) + P(H)P(F ) since the outcome of the coin toss is independent
of whether or not she passes the class
= 1/2 + 1/2 · α
α+1
=
2
Next, the event F ∩ C c that she fails and does not call actually reduces to the
event that she fails (F ∩ C c = F ) since she does not call if she fails (F ⊂ C c ).
Thus, P(F ∩ C c ) = P(F ) = α. Finally, we get
α 2α
β= =
(α + 1)/2 α+1

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Problem 4. Barbara and Dianne go target shooting. Suppose that each of
Barbara’s shots hits a wooden duck target with probability p1 , while each shot
of Dianne’s hits it with probability p2 . Suppose that they shoot simultaneously
at the same target.
(a) What reasonable independence assumptions can you make?
Answer. Let B be the event that Barbara’s shot hits the duck and D be
the event that Dianne’s shot hits the duck. We can assume that Barbara’s
and Dianne’s shots are independent, that is B and D are independent and
P(B ∩ D) = P(B)P(D) = p1 p2
If the wooden duck is knocked over (indicating that it was hit), what is the
probability that
(b) both shots hit the duck?
Answer.
P(B ∩ D ∩ (B ∪ D))
P(B ∩ D|B ∪ D) =
P(B ∪ D)
P(B ∩ D)
=
P(B) + P(D) − P(B ∩ D)
p1 p2
=
p1 + p2 − p1 p2

(c) Barbara’s shot hit the duck?

Answer.
P(B ∩ (B ∪ D))
P(B|B ∪ D) =
P(B ∪ D)
P(B)
=
P(B) + P(D) − P(B ∩ D)
p1
=
p1 + p2 − p1 p2

Problem 5. A simplified model for the movement of the price of a stock sup-
poses that on each day the stock’s price either moves up 1 unit with probability
p or moves down 1 unit with probability 1 − p. The changes on different days
are assumed to be independent.
(a) What is the probability that after 2 days the stock will be at its original
price?
Answer. Let U1 , U2 , U3 be the events that the price of the stock moves up
1 unit on the first, second and third day respectively. Similarly, we denote
U1c , U2c , U3c the events that the price of the stock moves down 1 unit on the
first, second and third day respectively. The event that after 2 days the

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 stock will be at its original price is realized when either he price of the stock
moves up 1 unit on the first day and it moves down 1 unit on the second
day (U1 ∩ U2c ) or the stock moves down 1 unit on the first day and it moves
up 1 unit on the second day (U1c ∩ U2 ). Hence, the desired probability is
given by

P((U1 ∩ U2c ) ∪ (U1c ∩ U2 )) = P(U1 ∩ U2c ) + P(U1c ∩ U2 )

= P(U1 )P(U2c ) + P(U1c )P(U2 ) by independence
= p(1 − p) + (1 − p)p
= 2p(1 − p)

(b) What is the probability that after 3 days the stock’s price will have increased
by 1 unit?
Answer. Using the same reasoning as in the previous question, the prob-
ability that after 3 days the stock’s price will have increased by 1 unit is:

P((U1 ∩ U2 ∩ U3c ) ∪ (U1 ∩ U2c ∩ U3 ) ∪ (U1c ∩ U2 ∩ U3 ))

=P(U1 ∩ U2 ∩ U3c ) + P(U1 ∩ U2c ∩ U3 ) + P(U1c ∩ U2 ∩ U3 )
=p · p(1 − p) + p(1 − p)p + (1 − p)p · p
=3p2 (1 − p)

(c) Given that after 3 days the stock’s price has increased by 1 unit, what is
the probability that it went up on the first day?
Answer. Let E be the event that after 3 days the stock’s price has increased
by 1 unit. Recall that the probability of E was computed in the previous
question: P(E) = 3p2 (1 − p). The requested probability is thus given by
the following conditional probability.

P(U1 ∩ E)
P(U1 |E) =
P(E)
P((U1 ∩ U2 ∩ U3c ) ∪ (U1 ∩ U2c ∩ U3 ))
=
P(E)
2
2p (1 − p)
= 2
3p (1 − p)
2
= .
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