Land Surface temperature response to land use land

cover change in Hetauda, Nepal

Bikram Singh1, Menuka Maharjan2, Amrit Thapa3
1
Institute of Forestry, Tribhuvan University, Main road Hetauda-10, Province 3, Nepal,
2
Institute of Forestry, Tribhuvan University, Main road Hetauda-10, Province 3, Nepal,
3
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur, Province 3, Nepal,
Corresponding author : bikramsingh2051@gmail.com
Abstract strengthened by high population pressure, migration,
Hetauda sub-metropolitan city is undergoing rapid and socio-economic activities. The changes have been
land use land cover change (LULC) since 1990s due judged in various spatial scales from local to global level
to increased anthropogenic activities. LULC change (Mahamood et al, 2010). Land use land cover (LULC)
leads to negative impact on urban environment changed is accelerating mainly by human activities
affecting the quality life of urban people. However, done in earth surface and itself got severe harmful
limited studies have been carried out in this research effects (Agrawal et al, 2002). LULC change is a major
area especially in developing countries like Nepal. The issue of concern with regards to change in the global
research aims to find out the response of land surface environment (Ahn et al, 2001). The detection of LULC
temperature (LST) to LULC dynamics in Hetauda sub- change is now essential for executive land resource
metropolitan city through the integration of remote management, planning, and sustainable development
sensing, geographical information system (GIS) and (Lu et al, 2019). The rapid unmanaged LULC change
statistical analysis. The Landsat images of the year enhance the climate change impact (Dale et al, 1997).
1995, 2008 and 2018 were used for analyzing LULC LULC change have important consequences on
dynamics and LST estimation. Normalized Difference natural resources through their impacts on soil and
Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference water quality, biodiversity, and global climatic systems
Built up Index (NDBI) and Normalized difference water (Awasthi et al, 2002). The changes were mainly linked
index (NDWI) were used to analyze the relationship with economic development, population growth,
between LST and LULC. technology and environmental change. Population
high leads towards more land use as a result natural
The results showed that forest and urban/built up
landscape conversion (Houghton, 1984). Temperature
areas were found to be increasing in study periods
variation caused by land use change has brought
while cultivated land was decreasing. Forest area of
serious condition due to its direct effect on environment
Hetauda was found to have slightly increased due to
and has changed the way of living of human beings
implementation and promotion of community forestry
(Wijitkosum 2011). Anthropogenic pressure such as
program throughout country. Urban/built up area was
rapid urbanization creates serious problems. Thus
considerably increased (10%) within 23 years period.
resulting rapid change in land cover in recent time and
The rapid temporal urbanization and industrialization
changing landscape pattern which affects land surface
in Hetauda contribute to significant increase in urban/
temperature(LST) (Gosh et al, 2018).
built up area. Increment in mean LST for forest class
LST is actually the skin temperature of the land surface
and urban/built up was found different for same
which differs from the land surface air temperature
time period. This shows that urban/built up area
(SRIVANIT et al., 2012). Calculation of LULC indices
significantly contributes to increasing local warming
i.e NDVI for vegetation (West et al., 2018), NDBI for
effect. The relationship between LST and NDBI was
built up area (Bhatti and Tripathi, 2014; Zha et al,
found to be positive whereas negative relationship
2003) and NDWI for water content area (Gao and Bo-
was observed between LST and vegetation index.
cai, 2008) the best methods for extraction of LULC
The multiple regression analysis was done between
characteristics.
LST and LULC indices. It demonstrates that industrial,
Multi temporal digital satellite imagery enable to
urban and built up areas are responsible for increasing
extract information about LULC, LULC indices and
LST while green infrastructure significantly contributes
land surface temperature is essential for urban land
to minimizing local warming effects. Overall, green
management, ecosystem monitoring and urban
infrastructure is vital component for sustainable
planning (Coskun et al, 2008). Thus, remote sensing
management of urban area.
data has been found to be effective in analyzing urban
Key words: Land Use Land Cover, NDVI, NDBI, Land
LULC and relation with LST (Hashim et al, 2007).
Surface Temperature, Green Infrastructure
The research aims to find out the response of land
1. Introduction surface temperature (LST) to LULC dynamics in
Our planet earth and its environment have been Hetauda sub-metropolitan city through the integration
changed for thousands of years due to anthropogenic of remote sensing, geographical information system
activities. These environmental changes are (GIS) and statistical analysis. This type of study may
12 International (SAARC) Youth Scientific Conference (IYSC) on Science and Technology for Prosperity:
 help in planning process of urban in sustainable Table 1 Properties of used data
manner. However, such studies are limited in our S. Satellite Sen- Band Imagery Resolu- Path/ Cloud
country N. sor No. date tion (m) row (%)
2. Materials and Methods 1 LAND- TM 7 1995- 30 141/ 2
2.1 Study area SAT 5 04-07 41
Hetauda sub-metropolitan city was chosen as study
2 LAND- TM 7 2008- 30 141/ 3
area in this research. It is located in Makawanpur SAT 5 04-10 41
district, Province 3, Nepal (27°25' N latitude and 85°02'
3 LAND- OLI/ 11 2018- 30 141/ 3.11
E)(Fig 1) and lies in chure range. The climatic region
SAT 8 TIRS 04-22 41
of Hetuada has been tropical and subtropical weather,
at summer warmer and at winter cold. Hetauda gets 2.2.2 Software used
heavy rainfall June-July and August. The forest cover Most of the spatial analyses such as change
of Hetauda is 48.28 % (DFRS, 2018). Hetauda is detection, urban growth, determination of LST, urban
regarded as a “Green city” because the city has heat island analysis, were conducted using ArcGIS.
planted trees on either sides of the road. R programming was used for pixel value extraction
The Hetauda Industrial District (HID) is one of the which was used for correlation analysis. Google earth
biggest industrial areas of Nepal lies in Hetauda. was used for supporting the classification accuracy.
Three of the major national paint factories are situated Besides, MS Office packages (Word, Excel), SPSS
in HID, including Asian Paints, Berger, and Yeti Paints. were used for documentation, tabulation and graphical
However, the area of HID has been shrinking as representation of the results.
industries (such as the former textile industry) either
move to other countries or shut down due to geo- 2.3 Data processing
political scenario in the past decade. In general, raw digital images contain distortions
due to variations in altitude, earth curvature and
atmospheric refraction. However, Level-1 Landsat
standard products, used in this study are free
of distortions from the aforementioned sources
(http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/). The spatial
reference system for all the datasets was WGS
1984, UTM zone 45 N. The required bands were
made composite to whole image. Finally, Landsat
images were clipped to obtain the area of interest.
2.4 Methods
2.4.1 LULC analysis
Supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification
was used to classify the study area into different
LULC classes. The spectral characteristics of
the classes were distinct by identifying training
Figure 1 Study area location map samples for this method. Knowledge about the
area of interest played a vital role in this process. After
2.2 Materials used the collection of training samples, image classification
2.2.1 Data used was approved out by applying the Maximum Likelihood
Data used for this research include Landsat satellite Classification algorithm. The algorithm assigns a cell
imagery: Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat to the class of the highest probability, whereby the
8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), acquired on April 7, probability value is the statistical distance based on
1995; April 10, 2008 and April 22, 2018.These Landsat the mean values and covariance matrix of the clusters
data can be freely retrieved from the USGS portal, (Tempfli, 2009). The classification includes following
and is processed by NASA to generate radiometric five classes:
calibration and atmospheric correction algorithms to Table 2 Description of land class
the Level-1 products (http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/). Land cover Descriptions
Landsat data had been already geometrically and
Forest This describes the areas with ev-
radiometrically corrected To ensure better comparison
ergreen trees mainly growing natu-
of LULC and LST, we used satellite images from the
rally in the reserved land, along the
month of April for all three years, which lies in the
rivers and on the hills.
summer season.
Cultivated land Agriculture land mainly,
Urban/built up Built up area, cemented area, roads
Sand River bank, Gravel
Water Water bodies

13 "Connecting
International (SAARC) Youth Scientific Lives(IYSC)
Conference with Land, Water and
on Science andEnvironment" 5-6
Technology for June, 2019, Kathmandu, Nepal
Prosperity: 13
 2.4.2 Accuracy assessment
Generally LULC maps resulting from classification
encompass some errors due to several factors that
range from the initial data acquisition procedure to
the implementation of the classification technique.
Thus accuracy assessment of classification results
is compulsory. The most common method generally
used for the accuracy assessment is the error matrix
(confusion matrix). An error matrix is an arrangement
of numbers representing number of samples assigned
to a specific category relative to the ground truth, in
rows and columns. The rows in the matrix embody
classification derived LULC maps while columns
represent reference data collected from the field work.
This matrix assists computation of several statistical
measures such as overall classification accuracy, error
of omission and commission, and kappa coefficient
(Congalton and Green, 1999).
Overall accuracy: The ratio of the number of correctly
classified pixels (i.e. the sum of the diagonal elements)
to the total number of pixels checked, expressed in
percentage. However, overall accuracy is an average,
so it does not reveal how error is distributed between
the classes.
Producer's accuracy: Represents the percentage of
a given category correctly identified on the map
User’s accuracy: Represents the probability that the
given pixel will appear on the ground as it is categorized
The kappa statistics: reflects the difference between
actual agreement and the agreement expected by
chance.
2.4.3 LST retrieval
LST is defined as the temperature felt when the
land surface is touched with the hands or the skin
temperature of the ground (Rajeshwari and Mani,
2014). As one of the most important aspects of the
land surface, LST has been a main topic for developing
methodologies to be measured from space. LST is an
important factor in many areas of studies, such as
global climate change, hydrological and agricultural
processes, and urban land use/land cover. Calculating
LST from remote sensed images is needed since it is
an important factor controlling most physical, chemical,
and biological processes of the Earth (Becker and Li,
1990). LST retrieval includes followings steps
1. Conversion of digital number to radiance
The first step to compute LST is conversion of the
digital number in to radiance for 1995 Landsat 5TM
sensor Therefore, from metadata file, digital number of
TM sensor is converted in to radiance value using the
following equation

(&'()"*&'+,")
𝐿𝐿" = × (𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 − 𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄) + 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿……………………………i
(./(&'()*./(&'+,)
Where: 𝐿𝐿" =Spectral Radiance at the sensor's aperture in watts/(meter squared × ster × µm)
𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 =the spectral radiance that is scaled to 𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 in watts/ (meter squared × ster ×
µm) 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝜆𝜆 =the spectral radiance that is scaled to 𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 in watts/(meter squared ×
ster × µm) 𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 =the minimum quantized calibrated pixel value (corresponding to
𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿) in DN
𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 =the maximum quantized calibrated pixel value (corresponding to 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿) in DN
𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 =the quantized calibrated pixel value in DN
𝐿𝐿" = 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 + 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 − 𝑜𝑜? ……………………………………………………………………ii
Where
𝐿𝐿" =TOA spectral radiance (Watts/ (m2 × srad × μm)),
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀=Band-specific multiplicative rescaling factor from the metadata
(RADIANCE_MULT_BAND_x, where x is the band number),
𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴=Band-specific additive rescaling factor from the metadata (RADIANCE_ADD_BAND_x,
where x is the band number),
𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄𝑄 =Quantized and calibrated standard product pixel values (DN) and
𝑜𝑜? is the correction for Band 10(Barsi et al, 2014).
1. Conversion of radiance to At-Satellite temperature
Radiance value of TM sensor that is computed from step 1 will be converted in to
At satellite temperature in Kelvin using equation (iii)
A
𝑇𝑇 = EFB ………………………………………………………………………….iiia
CD( G IJ)
H
Where
T=Top of atmosphere brightness temperature (K),
𝐿𝐿" =Spectral radiance in watts/(meter squared × ster × µm).
𝐾𝐾J =Band-specific thermal conversion constant from the metadata
(K1_CONSTANT_BAND_x, where x is the thermal band number),
𝐾𝐾L =Band-specific thermal conversion constant from the metadata
(K2_CONSTANT_BAND_x, where x is the thermal band number
A
𝑇𝑇 = EFB ………………………………………………………………………………..iiib
CD( G IJ)
H
14 Where (SAARC) Youth Scientific Conference (IYSC) on Science and Technology for Prosperity:
International 14
T=Top of atmosphere brightness temperature (K),
𝐿𝐿" =TOA spectral radiance (Watts/(m2 × srad × μm)),
𝐾𝐾J =Band-specific thermal conversion constant from the metadata
(K1_CONSTANT_BAND_x, where x is the thermal band number),
𝐾𝐾J =Band-specific thermal conversion constant from the metadata
(K1_CONSTANT_BAND_x, where x is the thermal band number),
𝐾𝐾L =Band-specific thermal conversion constant from the metadata
(K2_CONSTANT_BAND_x, where x is the thermal band number
A
𝑇𝑇 = EFB ………………………………………………………………………………..iiib
CD( G IJ)
H
Where
T=Top of atmosphere brightness temperature (K),
𝐿𝐿" =TOA spectral radiance (Watts/(m2 × srad × μm)),
𝐾𝐾J =Band-specific thermal conversion constant from the metadata
(K1_CONSTANT_BAND_x, where x is the thermal band number),
𝐾𝐾L =Band-specific thermal conversion constant from the metadata
(K2_CONSTANT_BAND_x, where x is the thermal band number).
2. Conversion of Kelvin to Celsius
°C=T-273.15 ………………………………………………………………………iv
Where
T=at satellite temperature computed from for both TM and OLI/TIRS sensors.
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
Normalized difference vegetation index was used to calculate land surface emissivity of
both study years. Hence, NDVI for Landsat 5 TM, 1995 and Landsat OLI/TIRS, 2018 will
be computed. Accordingly, the following formula will be employed to calculate NDVI.
QRDS T*QRDS U
For Landsat 5 TM NDVI = …………………………………………….……v
QRDS TIQRDS U
Where, Band 4 is Near Infrared and Band 3 is Red
QRDS V*QRDS T
For Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS NDVI = ………………………………………….…vi
QRDS VIQRDS T
Where
Band 5 is Near Infrared and Band 4 is Red.
Where 3. Retrieving of land surface emissivity
NDVI
Land min=minimum value
surface emissivity is of NDVI, after NDVI has calculated. Land surface emissivity of
retrieved
NDVI
the two max=maximum
sensor imagery value
wasof NDVI. via the following formula.
calculated
4. Land+Surface
𝑒𝑒 = 0.004 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 Temperature (LST)
0.986 ……………………………………………………………………...vii
Where, 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 = ij
l×mn ……………………………………………………………….ix
k`JI o g×CD(p)q
e=Land surface emissivity,
Where BT=at
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 =Proportion satellite temperature, w=wavelength of emitted radiance
of vegetation,
,ab+*,ab+c?d L
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 = `,ab+cef*,ab+c?dg ………………………………………………………………….viii
ℎ × 𝑐𝑐
𝑝𝑝 =
𝑠𝑠
h=plank’s constant (6.626 × 10-34 JS),
s=Boltzmann constant (1.38 × 10-23 J/K),
c=velocity of light (2.998 × 10-8 m/s and p=14380.
2.4.4 LULC indices
NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), NDBI (Normalized Difference Built-up
Index) and NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) indices were used to determine the
relationship between LULC and LST. These indices can be useful to assess and monitor
the urban thermal environment. Some of these indices were even used to delineate LULC
types based on the appropriate threshold values. Besides LULC indices, DEM was also
used in the analysis. DEM of the study area was generated based on the contour lines
available at 20 meters interval and spot heights.
LULC indices were extracted from the satellite images based on the following expressions:
uvw*w
NDVI = (Rouse et al., 1974)……………………………………………………..…x
uvwIw
yvw*uvw
NDBI = (Zha et al., 2003)………………………………………………………..xi
yvwIuvw
{*yvw
NDWI = (Xu, 2006)………………………………………………………..……xii
{Iyvw
Where, G, R, NIR and MIR are Green, Red, Near Infrared and Mid-infrared bands
respectively.
2.3 Data analysis
2.3.1 Change analysis
Change detection was analyzed by comparing the area of each LULC for three years 1995,
2008 and 2018. This was represented in graphically. The change rate was calculated by
using following formula between two intervals 1995-2008 and 2008-2018(Puyravaud,
2003). "Connecting Lives with Land, Water and Environment" 5-6 June, 2019, Kathmandu, Nepal 15
J× e
𝑟𝑟 = × ln B………………………………………………………………………..xiii
}B *}F eF
Where
r = annual rate of change (percentage per year),
 respectively.
2.3 Data analysis
2.3.1 Change analysis
Change detection was analyzed by comparing the area of each LULC for three years 1995,
2008 and 2018. This was represented in graphically. The change rate was calculated by
using following formula between two intervals 1995-2008 and 2008-2018(Puyravaud,
2003).
J× e
𝑟𝑟 = × ln B………………………………………………………………………..xiii
}B *}F eF
Where
r = annual rate of change (percentage per year),
𝑎𝑎J And 𝑎𝑎L are the land class area in percentage at time 𝑡𝑡J and 𝑡𝑡L respectively.
Land class conversion data was used for forest cover conversion into urban/built up
throughout the study period.
2.3.2 Regression analysis
Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between LST,
LULC and LULC indices. A multiple linear regression analysis is the statistical process
useful for estimating the relationships among multiple explanatory variables (independent
variables) and a predictor (dependent variable). It is the generalization of linear regression
to multiple variables which can be expressed as (Higgins, 2005):
𝑌𝑌? = 𝛽𝛽É + 𝛽𝛽J 𝑋𝑋?J + 𝛽𝛽L 𝑋𝑋?L +. . … … … + 𝛽𝛽Ö 𝑋𝑋?Ö +∈? ………………………………………xiv
Where, we consider
n= no. of observations of one predictor and r= explanatory variables.
𝑌𝑌? = ith observation of the predictor
𝑋𝑋?J = ith observation of the jth explanatory variable (j = 1, 2, 3…, r)
𝛽𝛽á = parameters to be estimated
∈? = ith independent identically distributed normal error

LST and LULC indices – NDVI, NDBI, NDWI, and DEM
were extracted for each pixel in the entire study area
by using R programming. Sixteen thousand nineteen
pixel values were selected having the confidence
level 99% for each land class indices to use them in
the linear regression model. Such model gives us a
general idea about the relationship between LST and
LULC indices and LULC.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Accuracy assessment
Table 3 encapsulates the overall accuracy, user’s
accuracy, producer’s accuracy and kappa coefficient
of LULC classification accuracy assessment for the
years 1995, 2008 and 2018. The overall classification
in 1995, 2008 and 2018 were to be found that 94.26%
and 92.91% respectively. However, kappa coefficients
were 0.93, 0.95 and 0.91 for 1995, 2008 and 2018
respectively. Thus, the image classification for this
study was quite good.

Table 2 Accuracy Assessment of classified images for different years

LULC types 1995 2008 2018
User's accu- Producer's accu- Producer's User's Producer's
racy racy User's accuracy accuracy accuracy accuracy
Forest 95.12 97.5 97.50 97.5 100 100
cultivated land 96.77 96.77 94.29 94.28 93.75 93.75
Urban/built up 90.48 90.47 84.62 88 82.76 92.3
Sand/gravel 93.75 93.75 93.33 87.5 93.75 88.23
Water 92.31 85.66 85.00 89.47 93.33 82.35
Overall accuracy 94.26 92.05 92.91
kappa 0.93 0.95 0.91

3.2 Land use land cover
Based on LULC classes of Hetauda sub-metropolitan
city, five major classes were classified for study years
(1995, 2008 and 2018). The classification is envisioned
to produce LULC for 23 years and compare against
LST change. The classes were obtained by supervised
maximum likelihood classification technique as
discussed in the methodology section. LULC map for
three different years 1995(A), 2008(B) and 2018(C)
shows spatio-temporal distribution of each class (Fig
2). The land class variation for three different years
presented in graph (Fig 2)
Forest and urban/built up area was found increasing
in first intervals of years i.e. 1995-2008 and 2008-
2018 (Fig 3). Contrary, cultivated land was decreasing
in these intervals. Sand/gravel and water land class
were fluctuate within the study period. Forest area
of Hetauda sub-metropolitan city was found slightly

16 International (SAARC) Youth Scientific Conference (IYSC) on Science and Technology for Prosperity:
increased due to community forestry program in
the country. The concept of community forest was
endorsed legally in 1993 including forest act and forest
regulation, 1995. Among 38 community forest, 36 were
established during 1990 in Hetauda sub-metropolitan
city (DFO, 2018). As a result, forest area including
condition is improved. Cultivated land was found to be
decreased within the study period because cultivated
land converted into urban/built up. Hetauda is rapidly
developed industrial city of Nepal. Rapid urbanization
was happening because Hetauda is headquarter of
Makawanpur district. The statistics of each land class
area for three different areas had been presented in Figure 4 Annual percentage change rate of LULC
appendix of Table 3. in intervals 1995-2008, 2008-2018 and 1995-2018
loss of potential natural areas which results further
threatened by climate change activities (Gillespie
et al., 2018). The spatial distribution of NDVI value
throughout study area presented in figure 5 for years
1995(A), 2008(B) and 2018(C). The health of vegetation
was found improving from 1995 to 2018 period (Fig
5). Demonstrate of NDVI for time series analysis is
suitable for detecting vegetation change areas and for
identifying land degradation and regeneration (Eckert
et al., 2015). Thus, the study area had good vegetation
health at recent time.

Figure 2 Land use land cover map in different years

i.e. 1995, 2008 and 2018

Figure 5 NDVI distribution map in 1995, 2008 and 2018

The mean value of NDVI was found to be increased
for each land class within study period (Fig 6). Also
Figure 3 land class area comparison for year the mean NDVI of forest class is higher as compared
1995, 2008 and 2018 to other land class because NDVI is indicator of green
vegetation. Since forest cover reflects more infrared
Overall, there is no significance variation in annual radiation, it has high NDVI value. The statistics of mean
percentage change rate for forest and cultivated land NDVI for three years can be shown in appendices of
while significant variation for urban/built up, sand/gravel Table 5.
and water (Fig 4). The rapid temporal urbanization and
industrialization in Hetauda contribute in significant
increase rate in urban/built up area. The numerical
statistics of change rate can be shown in Table 4 of
appendices.
3.3 Spatial pattern of LULC indices and LST
3.3.1 Normalized difference vegetation index
(NDVI)
The calculation of NDVI of a particular area is well
established method of drought monitoring and
vegetation health assessment (West et al., 2018). The
rapid urbanization of particular region has resulted Figure 6 Mean NDVI for 1995, 2008 and 2018

"Connecting Lives with Land, Water and Environment" 5-6 June, 2019, Kathmandu, Nepal 17
 3.3.2 Normalized difference built up index (NDBI)
Measurements of amount of imperviousness govern
by calculation of Normalized difference built-up index
(NDBI) by using satellite data. It generally gives guidance
for urban areas distribution as there is normally a higher
reflectance in the short-wave infrared band compared
to the near-infrared band. More than 90% accuracy
was obtained for extraction of built up area (Bhatti and
Tripathi, 2014; Zha et al, 2003). The spatial distribution
of NDBI value throughout study area presented in figure
7 for years 1995(A), 2008(B) and 2018(C).
Figure 7 NDBI distribution map in 1995, 2008 and
2018
The spatial distribution of NDBI value in study area
showed that content of greenery area is more in 2018
as compared to other two years (Fig 8). The value of
NDBI for built up area and cultivated land were found
to be more (Fig 8). NDBI is the just opposite indicator of
NDVI. This indicates built up area and cultivated land
had low capacity of radiation reflection as compared to
others land class which makes the surroundings area
warmer. The statistics of mean NDBI for each class
can be shown in Table 6 of appendices.
Figure 8 Mean NDBI for each land class in 1995,
2008 and 2018
3.3.3 Normalized difference water index (NDWI)
Measurement of NDWI is mainly for an assessment of
water content and liquid water molecules in vegetation
canopies (Gao and Bo-cai, 2008) and specially
regarded for the estimate of soil moisture and canopy
18 International (SAARC) Youth Scientific Conference (IYSC) on Science and Technology for Prosperity:
water content. The NDWI is often a function of local
climate and soil properties controlling water availability
(Sanchez et al, 2014).
Mean NDWI value was negative for all land class for
all the years (Fig 10). The amount of moisture content
is raised between 1995 and 2018 (Fig 9 and 10) due to
increase in mean NDWI value for each class. It is due
to establishment of fishery pond, increment of green
infrastructure and moisture content in forest vegetation
in the study area. The details of mean NDWI for each
class can be shown in Table 7 of appendices.
3.3.4 Land surface temperature (LST)
LST is defined as the temperature felt when the
land surface is touched with the hands or the skin
temperature of the ground (Rajeshwari and Mani,
2014).LST is an important issue in many areas, such as
global climate change, hydrological, geo-/biophysical
and urban land use/land cover (Avdan et al, 2016).
LTS range is found more (21.21-40.17°C) in 2018
compared to the previous year (1995 and 2008) (Fig
11 and 12). Furthermore, concentration of LST is found
in urban/built up area and cultivated land mainly. This
is due to increment in cemented materials, industries in
urban/built up area while cultivated land is dried during
crop harvest month i.e. April. The mean LST for forest
class was increased by 0.73°C (Fig 12). Similarly,
urban/built up land class had mean LST increased by
1.57°C (Fig 12). Increment in mean temperature for
forest class and urban/built up was found different for
same time period (23 years). This shows that urban/
built up area significantly contribute for increasing
locale warming effect. Overall, the mean surface
temperature increased by 1.029°C within the period
of 23 years (Fig 12) of Hetauda sub-metropolitan city
due rapid urbanization and industrialization. LULC
changes have been playing a main role in global as well
as regional climate patterns, including increase of LST
(FAO/UNEP 1999; Mann et  al. 2009; Ramachandra
et al. 2012; Sahoo et al. 2016). The statistic of mean
LST for each class can be shown in appendices of
Table 8.
Figure 9 NDWI distribution map in 1995, 2008 and
2018
 that green infrastructure had capacity to minimize the
urban heat island effects. So, improvement of green
structure can increase lifestyle of urban people in
response of local climatic variation effects (Zhang et al,
2013). While the positive correlation between LST and
NDBI means that the urban/built-up land can increase
the effect of urban heat island.
Urban heat island mainly appeared in the spatial
distribution of LST, which is governed by surface
heat fluxes and obviously affected by urbanization
(Dausset et al, 2003). This result also shows that the
significance of green infrastructure in urban area.
Figure 10 Mean NDWI for each class; 1995, 2008 The Table 9, 10 and 11 of appendices illustrate the
and 2018 correlation coefficient value for 1995, 2008 and 2018
between LST and LULC indices.

Figure 11 LST distribution map 1995, 2008 and

2018

Figure 13 Correlation scatter plot of LST and NDVI

Figure 12 LST for each land class in 1995, 2008

and 2018
Figure 14 Correlation scatter plot of LST and NDBI
3.4 Relationship between LST & LULC
3.4.2 Multiple Regression of LST and LULC class
characteristics
A multiple regression between LST and the indices
3.4.1 Linear Regression of LST and LULC indices
was then generated for each year, which is assumed
We computed correlation between LST and LULC
to be useful for monitoring the thermal environment
indices (NDVI, NDBI, NDWI). A DEM was considered
based on LULC and terrain. The details of regression
in multiple regressioin and because land surface
parameters can be show in table 12, 13 and 14 of
temperature is influenced by elevation (You et al,
appendices for year 1995, 2008 and 2018 respectively.
2010).
The regression models developed in the study are
The LST and NDVI relationship was found negative
defined below:
(Fig 13) for each three years while LST and NDBI
Equation I : LST=24.203-14.198NDVI-23.218NDWI
relationship was found positive (Fig 14). Negative
+4.866NDBI-0.002DEM (1995)
relationship of LST and NDVI said that the increase
in vegetation coverage lowering the LST. This shows Equation II: LST=27.045-8.423NDVI-23.911NDWI+
"Connecting Lives with Land, Water and Environment" 5-6 June, 2019, Kathmandu, Nepal 19
 10.250NDBI-0.002DEM (2008)
Equation III: LST=30.901-31.686NDVI-48.715NDWI+
28.325NDBI-0.005DEM (2018)
The multiple regressions were developed for LULC
indices i.e. NDVI, NDBI, NDWI, and DEM with LST.
From the above three models, the LULC indices has
different relation with LST for different years. This is due
to temporal change in LULC for different years. These
models are derived on the basis of linear relationship
while non-linear regression is also necessary for
detailed study.
Furthermore, the relationship of LST with LULC
indices can be different for different land class
characteristics. So, we further developed regression
models for each LULC class to understand its relation
to LST comprehensively. Table 15, 16 and 17 shows
regression models for each LULC class in the study
area for all three (1995, 2008 and 2018) years. These
Tables demonstrated that forest class has greater
coefficient of determination in 1995, in 2008 and in
2018.
4. Conclusion
The study revealed high rate of urban growth in
Hetauda sub-metropolitan city, Nepal. The main
drivers of such growth are high population growth,
in-migration and inappropriate land use including
establishment of industries. The productive land class
i.e. forest and agriculture land is in decreasing trend
and converted into urban/built up area. Contrary,
the forest cover of Hetauda sub-metropolitan city is
slightly in increasing order. If population growth and
urbanization is not considered in management leads to
replacing productive land into the concrete structures.
The built up area is found to be increasing due to
promotion of industrial activities in study area. This
trend is expected to be more severe in future unless
proper land use plans and policies are implemented.
Based on our analysis of thermal pattern of the study
area over the given period of time, we found that
gradual increase in temperature in urban/built up
area. There was the formation of concentration of
LST in the industrial area, downtown of Hetauda sub-
metropolitan city as well as bare cultivated land. This
study demonstrates that the surface temperature is
influenced by the urban growth. Urban growth affects
quality of life of people live in the urban area.
We also explored the relationship between LST
and LULC through regression analysis. The results
indicated strong linear relationship between surface
temperature and LULC indices. We then performed
regression analysis between LST and LULC indices
for each LULC class. This displayed variations in the
relationship depending upon the LULC types. Also the
mean LST change for urban/built up area was more as
compared to forest class at same time period. Negative
correlation between LST and NDVI reveals that green
vegetation lower the LST in urban area while positive
correlation between LST and NDBI implies that build
up area strengthen of LST. This study gives message
about the green infrastructure importance to coupe
with local warming inducement of urban area.

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Appendices
Table 3 LULC statistics for 1995, 2008 and 2018

  LULC, 1995 LULC, 2008 LULC, 2018

Class Name Area(Sq.km) % Area(Sq.km) % Area(Sq.km) %
Forest 118.98 45.47 124.72 47.66 125.95 48.14
Cultivated land 78.34 29.94 59.04 22.56 48.08 18.38
Built up area 54.86 20.97 63.50 24.27 79.88 30.53
Sand/gravel 6.77 2.59 8.58 3.28 3.51 1.34
Water 2.68 1.03 5.82 2.22 4.00 1.53
  261.63 261.68   261.42 99.91

"Connecting Lives with Land, Water and Environment" 5-6 June, 2019, Kathmandu, Nepal 21
 Table 4 Annual change rate percentage for each Table 6 Mean NDBI for each class; 1995, 2008 and
class in different intervals 2018
  Years NDBI_ NDBI_
1995- 2008- 1995- Land class 1995 2008 NDBI_ 2018
Land class 2008 2018 2018 Forest 0.172 0.367 -0.113
Forest 0.004 0.001 0.002 Cultivated land 0.345 0.385 0.073
Cultivated land -0.022 -0.021 -0.021 Urban/built up 0.273 0.407 0.001
Urban/Built up 0.011 0.023 0.016
Sand/gravel 0.308 0.331 0.048
Sand/gravel 0.018 -0.089 -0.029
Water 0.036 0.247 -0.104
Water 0.060 -0.038 0.017
Table 5 Mean NDVI for each class; 1995, 2008 and Table 7 Mean NDWI for each class; 1995, 2008 and
2018 2018
NDWI_ NDWI_ NDWI_
NDVI_ NDVI_ NDVI_ Land class 1995 2008 2018
Land class 1995 2008 2018
Forest 0.18 0.266 0.31 Forest -0.379 -0.386 -0.156

Cultivated land 0.05 0.097 0.17 Cultivated land -0.483 -0.47 -0.269
Urban/built up 0.09 0.177 0.22 Urban/built up -0.416 -0.458 -0.21
Sand/gravel 0.01 0.038 0.13 Sand/gravel -0.42 -0.435 -0.195
Water 0.03 0.044 0.18 Water -0.09 -0.303 -0.088

Table 8 Mean LST for each class; 1995, 2008 and 2018
Land class LST_1995 LST_2008 LST_2018
Forest 28.425 28.241 29.16
Cultivated land 32.513 32.416 34.5
Urban/built up 30.129 30.765 31.7
Sand/gravel 30.604 31.302 32.19
Water 25.468 29.170 29.4

Table 9 Correlations between LST and LULC indices and DEM in 1995
  LST NDVI NDWI NDBI DEM
LST 1 -0.479 -0.735 0.779 -0.345
NDVI -0.479 1 0.199 -0.695 0.306
NDWI -0.735 0.199 1 -0.822 0.191
NDBI 0.779 -0.695 -0.822 1 -0.271
DEM -0.345 0.306 0.191 -0.271 1

Table 10 Correlations between LST and LULC indices and DEM in 2008

  LST NDVI NDWI NDBI DEM

LST 1 -0.655 -0.686 0.436 -0.389
NDVI -0.655 1 0.334 0.045 0.298
NDWI -0.686 0.334 1 -0.903 0.067
NDBI 0.436 0.045 -0.903 1 0.062
DEM -0.389 0.298 0.067 0.062 1

22 International (SAARC) Youth Scientific Conference (IYSC) on Science and Technology for Prosperity:
Table 11 Correlations between LST and LULC indices and DEM in 2018

  LST NDVI NDWI NDBI DEM

LST 1 -0.639 -0.750 0.778 -0.460
NDVI -0.639 1 0.523 -0.888 0.236
NDWI -0.750 0.523 1 -0.847 0.132

NDBI 0.778 -0.888 -0.847 1 -0.216

DEM -0.460 0.236 0.132 -0.216 1
Table 12 Regression parameters for 1995

  Estimate Std. error t-value p-value R2

Constant 24.203 0.078 309.705 0.00 0.67
NDVI -14.198 0.548 -25.926 0.00
NDWI -23.218 0.592 -39.252 0.00
NDBI -4.866 0.731 -6.657 0.00
DEM -0.002 0.000 -23.947 0.00  
Table 13 Regression parameters for 2008

  Estimate Std. error t-value p-value R2

Constant 27.046 0.072 375.253 0.000 0.728

NDVI -8.423 0.234 -35.967 0.000

NDWI -23.912 0.578 -41.373 0.000
NDBI -10.250 0.705 -14.532 0.000
DEM -0.003 0.000 -52.333 0.000  

Table 14 Regression parameters for 2018

  Estimate Std. error t-value p-value R2

Constant 30.901 0.080 386.240 0.00 0.753
NDVI -31.686 0.940 -33.717 0.00
NDWI -48.715 0.978 -49.822 0.00
NDBI -28.325 1.222 -23.184 0.00
DEM -0.005 0.000 -80.442 0.00  
Table 15 Regression equations for each LULC class of 1995 year

LULC Regression equations R2

Forest 25.25-9.149NDVI-19.205NDWI-2.435NDBI-0.002DEM 0.604
Cultivated land 22.828-34.219NDVI-28.326NDWI-6.675NDBI-0.0001DEM 0.456
Urban/built up 23.603+5.22NDVI-0.569NDWI+17.17NDBI-0.002DEM 0.315
Sand/gravel 18.045-9.741NDVI-16.651NDWI+17.833NDBI-0.0001DEM 0.330
Water 23.409-2.631NDVI-3.145NDWI+6.467NDBI-0.002DEM 0.416

Table 16 Regression equations for each LULC class of 2008 year

LULC Regression equations R2

Forest LST=26.984-2.541NDVI-28.205NDWI-18.598NDBI-0.003DEM 0.611
Cultivated land LST=27.850-10.803NDVI-27.043NDWI-014.830NDBI-0.002DEM 0.635

"Connecting Lives with Land, Water and Environment" 5-6 June, 2019, Kathmandu, Nepal 23
 Urban/built up LST=27.114-13.105NDVI-3.337NDWI+12.955NDBI-0.001DEM 0.272
Sand/gravel LST=23.979-15.567NDVI-11.005NDWI+12.318NDBI-0.001DEM 0.294
Water LST=27.561-10.162NDVI-20.707NDWI-10.949NDBI-0.003DEM 0.657

Table 17 Regression equations for each LULC class of 2018 year

LULC Regression equations R2
Forest 30.731-45.20NDVI-60.663NDWI-50.996NDBI-0.004DEM 0.606
Cultivated land 32.787-47.291NDVI-54.017NDWI-31.087NDBI-0.004DEM 0.405
Urban/built up 31.890-18.008NDVI-27.542NDWI-8.910NDBI-0.003DEM 0.397
Sand 29.656-19.316NDVI-33.546NDWI-16.986NDBI-0.003DEM 0.575
Water 29.286-21.6586NDVI-33.500NDWI-20.774NDBI-0.001DEM 0.595

  

24 International (SAARC) Youth Scientific Conference (IYSC) on Science and Technology for Prosperity: