Auto Monthly Update

SECTOR UPDATE

April 2019
 Auto Monthly Update

In Apr 2019, Indian passenger vehicle (PV) sector reported subdued performance. Both Maruti
Suzuki and Hyundai India (with collective market share of ~70% in domestic PV market) reported
YoY domestic volume decline of 19.0% and 10.1% during the month. The new safety regulations
such as compulsory anti-lock braking system (ABS), driver-side airbag and conversion to BS-VI
have been pushing vehicle cost higher. Auto makers have also stated that rising commodity prices
led to further increase in prices. All the cost factors have also increased the price of entry segment
cars, which targets cost sensitive customers.

High insurance cost, rise in commodity prices, rural distress, general election and liquidity crunch
in the market impacted the 2W sales during past couple of months. Unlike PVs, 2W market in India
is saturated and companies are sustaining their market share and sales volume by consistently
launching new products in the market. Bajaj Auto is shifting is focusing more on entry level bikes
to get share in mass market, while Hero Motocorp is eyeing the premium segment to de-risk its
business model, which is concentrated on the entry level segment

Revised axle norms and liquidity crunch continued to hit commercial vehicle (CV) segment. CV
SECTOR UPDATE

volumes in FY20 are expected to be better on potential pre-buying ahead of the implementation of
BS-VI emission norms (from Apr 2020 onwards)

Tractor sales remained weak in Apr 2019 due to erratic rainfall coupled with delayed sowing and
low production of rabi crops in the last fiscal. Low crop yield dampened rural sentiments and
reduced farmer income, which in turn impacted farm machinery and equipment sales.

We expect PV segment to remain under pressure in the month of May 2019 on account of higher
input cost and uncertainties surrounding elections. Recovery is expected in Q3FY20 with festival
season and low base of H2FY19. CV sales are expected to face challenges on account of temporary
slowdown in economy due to general election, liquidity crunch and revised axle norms. We are
expecting CV sales volume to be better on account of pre-buying ahead of BS-VI implementation in
April 2020.

According to FADA data, CV volumes witnessed maximum YoY impact and their volumes declined
by 16.2% y/y during Apr 2019, followed by 13.3% y/y decline in 3W, 8.8% y/y decline in 2W and 1.9%
y/y decline in PVs. Dealer inventory levels declined significantly for 2W (from 90 days in Feb 19 to
50 days in Apr 19) and PVs (from 60 days in Feb 19 to 45 days in Apr 19). 3W inventories remained
same at 50 days.

Source: Federations of Automobiles & Dealers Association (FADA)

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

2
 Auto Monthly Update

2W sales performance

80 40%
70
20%
60
50 0%
40
30 -20%

20
-40%
10
0 -60%

-80%

Motorcycle Sales Non Motorcycle Sales Motorcycle Sales Non Motorcycle Sales
SECTOR UPDATE

Source: Industry Reports & Ventura Research

Passenger Vehicle sales performance

1000 25%
900
800 20%
700
15%
600
500 10%
400
300 5%
200
100 0%
0
-5%

-10%

Source: Industry Reports & Ventura Research

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

3
 Auto Monthly Update

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd |CMP: Rs 6,757 | M.Cap: Rs 204,109 crore|

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) reported volume (domestic + export) decline of 17.4% to 1,42,881 vehicles
in Apr 2019 over Apr 2018 due to weakness in domestic market. Domestic business witnessed YoY volume
decline of 19.0% to 1,33,704 vehicles, while export volumes witnessed growth of 14.6% to 9,177 vehicles.

Mini, compact, executive sedan & vans collectively reported YoY volume decline of 23.3% to 1,09,350
vehicles, while UVs and Supper Carry (LCV) recorded YoY volume growth of 5.9% to 22,035 vehicles and
50.2% to 2,319 vehicles
SECTOR UPDATE

Total Vehicles Sales and YoY Growth

2.0 40%
1.8
1.6 30%
1.4 20%
1.2
1.0 10%
0.8
0.6 0%
0.4 -10%
0.2
0.0 -20%

Domestic Sales, LHS Export Sales, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Mini, Compact, Executive Sedan & Van Sales and YoY Growth

1.6 50%
1.4 40%
1.2 30%
1.0 20%
0.8 10%
0.6 0%
0.4 -10%
0.2 -20%
0.0 -30%
SECTOR UPDATE

Mini, compact, executive sedan & vans, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Utility Vehicle & LCV Sales and YoY Growth

30 60%
50%
25
40%
20
30%
15 20%
10%
10
0%
5
-10%
0 -20%

Utility Vehicles & LCV, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd CMP: Rs 638 | M.Cap: Rs 79,272 crore|

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) witnessed subdued performance across all segments in Apr 2019.
Company’s passenger vehicle segment reported YoY volume decline of 8.9% to 19,966 units, while its LCV
segment (2nd largest after Tata Motors) witnessed YoY degrowth of 6.7% to 16,847 units and M&HCV
segment reported significant YoY decline of 47.6% to 474 units. M&M’s 3 wheeler segment report flattish
performance and witnessed marginal YoY decline of 0.3% to 4,316 units.

M&M’s tractor segment reported YoY volume decline of 7.7% to 28,552 units. Company’s domestic tractor
volumes witnessed YoY degrowth of 8.0% to 27,495 units, while export volume grew marginally by 1.5%
y/y to 1,057 units.
SECTOR UPDATE

Total vehicles sales (excluding Tractors) and YoY Growth

70 25%
60 20%
50 15%
40 10%
30 5%
20 0%
10 -5%
0 -10%

Domestic Sales, LHS Export Sales, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

6
 Auto Monthly Update

Passenger Vehicle sales volume and YoY Growth

30 20%
15%
25
10%
20
5%
15 0%
-5%
10
-10%
5
-15%
0 -20%
SECTOR UPDATE

Passenger Vehicle Sales Volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Tractor sales volume and YoY Growth

50 30%
45
20%
40
35 10%
30 0%
25
20 -10%
15 -20%
10
-30%
5
0 -40%

Tractor Sales Volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Tata Motors Ltd |CMP: Rs 201 | M.Cap: Rs 58,006 crore|

Tata Motors Ltd (TML) faced significant impact across all segments (non JLR). Company’s domestic
M&HCV volumes reported YoY decline of 26.5% to 12,171 units and its LCV volumes reported YoY
declined of 10.1% to 17,712 units. Similarly, TML’s car segment reported YoY decline of 42.7% to 6,106
units, while its utility vehicle segment reported flat volumes of 6,588 in Apr 2019 compared to 6,578 reported
in Apr 2018.
SECTOR UPDATE

Total vehicles sales (excluding JLR) and YoY Growth

80 100%
70 80%
60 60%
50
40%
40
20%
30
20 0%

10 -20%
0 -40%

Domestic Sales, LHS Export Sales, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

M&HCV & LCV volume and YoY Growth

60 140%
120%
50
100%
40 80%
60%
30
40%
20 20%
0%
10
-20%
0 -40%
SECTOR UPDATE

CV Sales Volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Utility Vehicles & Passenger Cars volume and YoY Growth

20 80%
18
16 60%
14 40%
12
10 20%
8
6 0%
4 -20%
2
0 -40%

Passenger Vehicle Sales Volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Ashok Leyland Ltd |CMP: Rs 87 | M.Cap: Rs. 25,656 crore|

Ashok Leyland Ltd (ALL) outpaced the TML performance and reported YoY volume growth of 7.5% to
13,626 vehicles during Apr 2019. The volume growth was mainly driven by LCV segment, which grew at a
YoY rate of 15.4% to 4280 vehicles during the month. ALL’s M&HCV volumes witnessed YoY growth of
4.2% to 9,346 units
SECTOR UPDATE

CV sales volume and YoY Growth

25 100%
80%
20
60%
15 40%

10 20%
0%
5
-20%
0 -40%

CV Sales Volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Hero MotoCorp Ltd |CMP: Rs 2,557 | M.Cap: Rs 51,065 crore|

Hero MotoCorp Ltd (HMCL) witnessed significant degrowth in overall volumes in 2nd consecutive month. In
Apr 2019, company reported YoY volume decline of 17.2% to 5,74,366 units. HMCL has considerable
market share in sub-125 cc segment and 2nd subdued month reflects the weakness in overall 100-125cc
segment

To diversify its presence and de-risk its concentrated business model, HMCL launched four high-end
motorcycles in more than 200 cc segment – 3 motorcycles in X-Pulse 200 series and 1 in X-Treme 200
series
SECTOR UPDATE

Motorcycle sales volume and YoY Growth

9 20%
8 15%
7 10%
6 5%
5 0%
4 -5%
3 -10%
2 -15%
1 -20%
0 -25%

Motorcycle Sales Volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Bajaj Auto Ltd |CMP: Rs. 3,037 | M.Cap: Rs 87,897 crore|

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BAL) reported YoY volume growth of 4.8% in its motorcycle segment and sold 3,66,268
motorcycles during Apr 2019. Volume growth was mainly driven by export performance, which outpaced
the YoY domestic growth by 518 bps. Company sold 1,60,393 motorcycles in export market (reporting YoY
growth of 7.7%) and 2,05,875 motorcycles in domestic market (reporting YoY growth of 2.6%)

Three wheeler segment report low double digit YoY volume decline of 12.7% to 57,047 units during Apr
2019. BAL witnessed 16.3% YoY decline in 3-wheeler export volume to 30,818 units (compared to 8.7%
YoY decline in domestic volume to 26,229 units), which mostly dragged the overall 3-wheeler performance.
SECTOR UPDATE

Motorcycle sales volume and YoY Growth

5.0 70%
4.5
60%
4.0
3.5 50%
3.0 40%
2.5
2.0 30%
1.5 20%
1.0
10%
0.5
0.0 0%

Domestic 2W Sales, LHS Export 2W Sales, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Three wheeler sales volume and YoY Growth

80 100%
70 80%
60
60%
50
40%
40
20%
30
0%
20
10 -20%

0 -40%
SECTOR UPDATE

Domestic 3W Sales, LHS Export 3W Sales, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

TVS Motors Ltd |CMP: Rs.490 | M.Cap: Rs. 23,296 crore|

TVS Motors Ltd (TVS) reported 2-wheeler volume growth of 4.2% y/y to 3,05,883 units. The growth in 2W
segment was mainly driven by 8.6% and 9.1% YoY growth in Motocycles (to 1,43,063 units) and Scooter
segment (to 97,323 units) respectively. Mopeds witnessed YoY decline of 9.6% to 65,497 units. TVS’s 2W
export volume grew by 10.7% to 57,377 units.

Company’s 3W segment sustained its strong performance and reported YoY volume growth of 15.2% to
13,104 units. The 3W growth was mainly driven by substantial performance in export segment, which
reported the YoY growth of 22.1% to 12,188 units during Apr 2019. Domestic 3W volumes witnessed
degrowth of 34.2% to 916 units during the month.
SECTOR UPDATE

Two wheeler sales volume and YoY Growth

450 30%
400 25%
350
20%
300
250 15%
200 10%
150
5%
100
50 0%

0 -5%

Domestic 2W Sales, LHS Export 2W Sales, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Three wheeler sales volume and YoY Growth

16 160%
14 140%
12 120%
10 100%
8 80%
6 60%
4 40%
2 20%
0 0%
SECTOR UPDATE

Domestic 3W Sales, LHS Export 3W Sales, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Atul Auto Ltd |CMP: Rs 326 | M.Cap: 715 crore|

Atul Auto Ltd (AAL) sold 3,346 vehicles in the month of Apr 2019 as compared to 2,738 vehicles in the same
month last year, witnessing a volume growth of 22.2%.

Sales volume and YoY Growth

6000 0.7
0.6
5000
SECTOR UPDATE

0.5
4000 0.4
0.3
3000
0.2
2000 0.1
0
1000
-0.1
0 -0.2

Sales Volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

V.S.T. Tillers Tractors Ltd |CMP: Rs. 1,236 | M.Cap: Rs 1,068 crore|

In Apr 2019, VST Tillers sold 432 units of tractors (YoY growth of 23.4%) and 289 units of power tillers (YoY
decline of 56.7%). The overall volume declined by 29.2% to 721 units during the month due to weak
monsoons and less Rabi sowing.

Company launched a new model of tractor named Shakti 270 in Year 2019 and delivered it in Andhra
Pradesh and Telangana region in the first month of launch itself.
SECTOR UPDATE

Sales volume and YoY Growth

6000 10%

5000 0%
-10%
4000
-20%
3000
-30%
2000
-40%
1000 -50%
0 -60%

Power Tillers Volume, LHS Tractor Volume, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Escorts Ltd |CMP: Rs 659 | M.Cap: Rs 8,077 crore|

Escorts Ltd (ESCORTS), a manufacturer of farm equipment sold a total of 5,264 units during Apr 2019 and
reported a YoY decline of 14.9%. In the domestic market, the company sold 4,986 units and witnessed a
YoY degrowth of 18.2%, while exports volume reported a significant jump from 92 units sold in Apr 2018 to
278 units in Apr 2019.

About 20% of tractors are used for non-agricultural use. The government’s thrust on roads and highways
development as seen in the Bharatmala project would also be positive for the tractor segment. Therefore,
we believe that the current weakness is expected to be short-lived and the volumes could bounce back in
FY20
SECTOR UPDATE

Domestic & Export sales volume and YoY Growth

14000 80%
70%
12000
60%
10000 50%
8000 40%
30%
6000 20%
4000 10%
0%
2000
-10%
0 -20%

Domestic Sales Vol, LHS Export Sales Vol, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Eicher Motors Ltd |CMP: Rs 20,400 | M.Cap: Rs.55,656 crore|

Eicher Motors Ltd (EML) sold 62,879 units of Royal Enfield in Apr 2019 and reported a YoY decline of 17.5%
on the back of intense competition from JAWA motorcycles. Volume contribution of more than 350cc (a
higher realization and better margin product) segment improved from 8.3% in Apr 2018 to 10.2% in Apr
2019. Similarly, exports volumes reported YoY increase of 139.9% to 3,742 units during Apr 2019

Eicher’s CV sales remained flat during the month – reported CV volumes of 3,961 during Apr 2019 against
3,960 reported during Apr 2018. Exports fell at 1,216 units in March 2019 (3.9% YoY). Major growth was
pulled by bus segment which declared growth rates of 13.6% (YoY).

New model launches expected. New product launches Thunderbird 350 2020, Classic 350 2020 are
expected in year 2020.
SECTOR UPDATE

CV sales volume and YoY Growth

10000 70%
9000 60%
8000 50%
7000 40%
6000
30%
5000
20%
4000
3000 10%
2000 0%
1000 -10%
0 -20%

L/MD, LHS Bus, LHS HD, LHS Vehicle Sales Growth (YoY), RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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 Auto Monthly Update

Royal Enfield sales volume and YoY Growth

80 30%
70
20%
60
10%
50
40 0%
30
-10%
20
-20%
10
0 -30%
SECTOR UPDATE

Royal Enfield Sales Vol, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

20
 Auto Monthly Update

SML Isuzu Ltd |CMP: Rs 790 | M.Cap: Rs 1,143 crore |

SML Isuzu Ltd (SML) reported YoY volume growth of 20.1% to 1,379 units in Apr 2019. Company is
expected to launch a car in August 2019 named D-Max V cross 2019.

Royal Enfield sales volume and YoY Growth

2500 60%
50%
SECTOR UPDATE

2000
40%

1500 30%
20%
1000 10%
0%
500
-10%
0 -20%

CV sales volume, LHS Sales Volume YoY Growth, RHS

Source: Company Reports

Disclosures and Disclaimer

Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

21
 Auto Monthly Update

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SECTOR UPDATE

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Monthly Auto Update Wednesday, 7th May 2019

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