Reservoir Induced Seismicity

1. INTRODUCTION

Earthquakes are one of the most devastating among the various natural hazards. In
the last few decades, the world has been faced by a number of large earthquakes
which has caused significant destruction of human life and property; earthquakes are
the major natural disaster in our country too. The Indian subcontinent has suffered
much due to earthquakes being one of the most earthquake prone regions of the globe.
The damage to human life and property due to large earthquakes are significant, the
rapid rate of urbanization and globalization has caused the construction of mega
infrastructures to support people which has increased the potential of earthquakes to a
greater extent magnitudes 5, 6. A particular seismic event or earthquakes refers to the
tremors associated with the damage of a rock mass below the surface of earth. The
energy released is only a small portion of the energy which is released due to the
rupture of the rock mass. A seismic event is caused by excess concentration of stress
in discontinuities of rock mass which leads to failure of the rock mass, the excess
stress concentration is caused due to stress redistribution. An earthquake or seismic
activity is said to be completed when the energy dissipation is complete and the rocks
moves from one stress state to another. Seismic activity may vary in intensity and in
many events the energy dissipated may not reach the earth surface. But it will reach
the earth surface in case of large earthquakes and cause considerable shaking
magnitudes 7, 8.
The impoundment of large reservoirs especially ones with height above 100
m have caused earthquakes which are termed as reservoir induced earthquakes or
reservoir triggered earthquakes. The first case of reservoir induced earthquake was
that of marathon reservoir, Greece. After that over 100 cases of reservoir induced
earthquakes were recorded in which many of them had magnitudes greater than 6 and
caused considerable damage. The reservoir induced seismicity (RIS) is a very
complicated phenomenon, a result of complex, not entirely known mechanisms that
are very different in various cases. RIS covers a wide interval of earthquake
magnitudes, from micro earthquakes to very strong ones with magnitudes of up to
M=6.5. The investigations of this phenomenon have so far pointed to the existence of
number different factors that control such seismicity and that it is necessary to provide
a large number of data by installing instruments for recording of the seismic activity
of the terrain starting with the beginning of the construction of a dam. In most cases of

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

induced seismicity, the earthquake magnitudes have been small and have not
represented a threat for the structural integrity of the dam and the remaining structures
in its surrounding.
2. DAMS

A dam is a barrier that stops or restricts the flow of water or underground

streams. Reservoirs created by dams not only suppress floods but also provide water
for activities such as irrigation, human consumption, industrial use, aquaculture,
and navigability. Hydropower is often used in conjunction with dams to generate
electricity. A dam can also be used to collect water or for storage of water which can
be evenly distributed between locations. Dams generally serve the primary purpose of
retaining water, while other structures such as floodgates or levees (also known
as dikes) are used to manage or prevent water flow into specific land regions

3. RESERVOIR

A reservoir is a storage space for fluids. These fluids may be water, hydrocarbons or
gas. A reservoir usually means an enlarged natural or artificial lake, storage pond on
impoundment created using a dam to store water. Reservoirs can be created by
controlling a stream that drains an existing body of water. They can also be
constructed in river valleys using a dam. Alternately, a reservoir can be built by
excavating flat ground or constructing retaining walls and levees. Tank reservoirs,
store liquids or gases in storage tanks that may be elevated, at grade level or buried. A
tank reservoir for water is also called cisterns. Underground reservoirs is used to store
liquids, principally either water or petroleum, below ground.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

Fig. 3.1 Reservoir

(Source: https://www.google.co.in/search?sa=G&hl=en-
IN&q=long+is+lake+berryessa&tbm)

3.1 TYPES

3.1.1 Reservoirs dammed in valleys

A dam constructed in a valley relies on the natural topography to provide most of the
basin of the reservoir. Dams are typically located at a narrow part of a valley
downstream of a natural basin. The valley sides act as natural walls, with the dam
located at the narrowest practical point to provide strength and the lowest cost of
construction. In many reservoir construction projects, people have to be moved and re-
housed, historical artefacts moved or rare environments relocated. Construction of
a reservoir in a valley will usually need the river to be diverted during part of the
build, often through a temporary tunnel or by-pass channel.

In hilly regions, reservoirs is often constructed by enlarging existing lakes. Sometimes

in such reservoirs the new top water level exceeds the watershed height on one or
more of the feeder streams. In such cases additional side dams are required to contain
the reservoir.

3.1.2 Bank-side reservoir

Where water is pumped or siphoned from a river of variable quality or quantity, bank-
side reservoirs may be built to store the water. Such reservoirs is usually formed partly
by excavation and partly by building a complete encircling bund or embankment,

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

which may exceed 6 km in circumference. Both the floor of the reservoir and the bund
must have an impermeable lining or core: initially these were often made of puddle
clay, but this has generally been superseded by the modern use of rolled clay. The
water stored in such reservoirs may stay there for several months, during which time
normal biological processes may substantially reduce many contaminants and almost
eliminate any turbidity. The use of bank-side reservoirs also allows water abstraction
to be stopped for some time, when the river is unacceptably polluted or when flow
conditions are very low due to drought.

3.1.3 Service reservoir

Service reservoirs store fully treated potable water close to the point of distribution.
Many service reservoirs are constructed as water towers, often as elevated structures
on concrete pillars where the landscape is relatively flat. Other service reservoirs can
be almost entirely underground, especially in more hilly or mountainous country.
Service reservoirs perform several functions, including ensuring sufficient head of
water in the water distribution system and providing water capacity to even out peak
demand from consumers, enabling the treatment plant to run at optimum efficiency.
Large service reservoirs can also be managed to reduce the cost of pumping, by
refilling the reservoir at times of day when energy costs are low.

4. USES OF RESERVOIR

4.1 DIRECT WATER SUPPLY

Many dammed river reservoirs and most bank-side reservoirs are used to provide
the raw water feed to a water treatment plant which delivers drinking water through
water mains. The reservoir does not merely hold water until it is needed: it can also be
the first part of the water treatment process. The time the water is held before it is
released is known as the retention time. This is a design feature that allows particles
and silts to settle out, as well as time for natural biological treatment
using algae, bacteria and zooplankton that naturally live in the water.

4.2 HYDROELECTRICITY

A reservoir generating hydroelectricity includes turbines connected to the retained

water body by large-diameter pipes. These generating sets may be at the base of the
dam or some distance away. In a flat river valley a reservoir needs to be deep enough

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

to create a head of water at the turbines; and if there are periods of drought
the reservoir needs to hold enough water to average out the river's flow throughout the
years. Run-of-the-river hydro in a steep valley with constant flow needs no reservoir.

4.3 CONTROLLING WATERCOURSES

Reservoirs can be used in a number of ways to control how water flows through
downstream waterways:

4.3.1 Downstream water supply – water may be released from an

upland reservoir so that it can be abstracted for drinking water lower down the
system, sometimes hundreds of miles further downstream.

4.3.2 Irrigation – water in an irrigation reservoir may be released into networks

of canals for use in farmlands or secondary water systems. Irrigation may also
be supported by reservoirs which maintains river flows, allowing water to be
abstracted for irrigation lower down the river.

4.3.3 Flood control– also known as an” attenuation" or "balancing" reservoirs,

flood control reservoirs collect water at times of very high rainfall, then release
it slowly during the following weeks or months. Some of these reservoirs are
constructed across the river line, with the onward flow controlled by an orifice
plate. When river flow exceeds the capacity of the orifice plate, water builds
up behind the dam; but as soon as the flow rate reduces, the water behind the
dam is slowly released until the reservoir is empty again.

4.3.4 Canals – Where a natural watercourse's water is not available to be diverted

into a canal, a reservoir may be built to guarantee the water level in the canal:
for example, where a canal climbs through locks to cross a range of hills.

4.3.5 Recreation – water may be released from a reservoir to create or

supplement white water conditions for kayaking and other white-water
sports. On salmonid rivers special releases are made to encourage natural
migration behaviours in fish and to provide a variety of fishing conditions for
anglers.

4.4 FLOW BALANCING

Reservoirs can be used to balance the flow in highly managed systems, taking in water
during high flows and releasing it again during low flows. In order for this to work

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

without pumping requires careful control of water levels using spillways. When a
major storm approaches, the dam operators calculate the volume of water that the
storm will add to the reservoir. If forecast storm water will overfill the reservoir, water
is slowly let out of the reservoir prior to, and during, the storm. If done with sufficient
lead time, the major storm will not fill the reservoir and areas downstream will not
experience damaging flows. Accurate weather forecasts are essential so that dam
operators can correctly plan drawdowns prior to a high rainfall event.

4.5 RECREATION

Many reservoirs often allow some recreational uses, such as fishing and boating.
Special rules may apply for the safety of the public and to protect the quality of the
water and the ecology of the surrounding area. Many reservoirs now support and
encourage less formal and less structured recreation such as natural history, bird
watching, landscape painting, walking and hiking, etc...

5. OPERATION

Water falling as rain upstream of the reservoir, together with any ground water
emerging as springs, is stored in the reservoir. Any excess water can be spilled via a
specifically designed spillway. Stored water may be piped by gravity for use
as drinking water, to generate hydro-electricity or to maintain river flows to support
downstream uses. Occasionally reservoirs can be managed to retain water during high
rainfall events to prevent or reduce downstream flooding. Some reservoirs support
several uses, and the operating rules may be complex.

6. TERMINOLOGY

The terminology for reservoirs varies from country to country. In most of the
world, reservoir areas are expressed in square kilometres; in the United States acres
are commonly used. For volume either cubic metres or cubic kilometres are widely
used, with acre-feet used in the US.

The capacity, volume or storage of a reservoir is usually divided into distinguishable

areas. Dead or inactive storage refers to water in a reservoir that cannot be drained by
gravity through a dam's outlet works, spillway or power plant intake and can only be
pumped out. Dead storage allows sediments to settle, which improves water quality
and also creates an area for fish during low levels. Active or live storage is the portion

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

of the reservoir that can be used for flood control, power production, navigation and
downstream releases. In addition, a reservoir's "flood control capacity" is the amount
of water it can regulate during flooding. The "surcharge capacity" is the capacity of
the reservoir above the spillway crest that cannot be regulated.

7. EARTHQUAKE

An earthquake (also known as a quake, tremor or temblor) is the shaking of the

surface of the Earth, resulting from the sudden release of energy in
the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in size from
those that are so weak that they cannot be felt to those violent enough to toss people
around and destroy whole cities. The seismicity or seismic activity of an area refers to
the frequency, type and size of earthquakes experienced over a period of time.The
figure shows the location of earthquake.

Fig. 7.1 Location of Earthquake

(Source:https://www.google.co.in/search?sa=G&hl=en-
IN&q=does+an+earthquake+occur&tbm )

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

The figure shows a seismometer which is used to measure earthquakes.

Fig. 7.2 Seismometer

(Source: https://www.google.co.in/search?sa=G&hl=en-IN&q=richter+scale&tbm)

Earthquakes are measured using measurements from seismometers. The moment

magnitude is the most common scale on which earthquakes larger than approximately
5 are reported for the entire globe. The more numerous earthquakes smaller than
magnitude 5 reported by national seismological observatories are measured mostly on
the local magnitude scale, also referred to as the Richter magnitude scale. These two
scales are numerically similar over their range of validity. Magnitude 3 or lower
earthquakes are mostly imperceptible or weak and magnitude 7 and over potentially
causes serious damage over larger areas, depending on their depth. The largest
earthquakes in historic times have been of magnitude slightly over 9, although there is
no limit to the possible magnitude. Intensity of shaking is measured on the
modified Mercalli scale.

At the Earth's surface, earthquakes manifest themselves by shaking and sometimes

displacement of the ground. When the epicentre of a large earthquake is located
offshore, the sea bed may be displaced sufficiently to cause a Tsunami. Earthquakes
can also trigger landslides, and occasionally volcanic activity.

In its most general sense, the word earthquake is used to describe any seismic event
whether natural or caused by a human that generates seismic waves. Earthquakes are
caused mostly by rupture of geological faults, but also by other events such as
volcanic activity, landslides, mine blasts, and nuclear tests. An earthquake's point of
initial rupture is called its focus or hypocentre. The epicentre is the point at ground
level directly above the hypocentre.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

8. SEISMICITY

Seismicity is a measure which encompasses earthquake occurrences, mechanisms,

and magnitude at a given geographical location. As such it summarizes a region's
seismic activity.

Seismicity is quantitatively computed. Generally the region under study is divided in

equally sized areas defined by latitude and longitude and the interior of the Earth is
divided into various depth intervals on account of Earth's layering: Up to 50 km depth,
50–300 km, and > 300 km.

9. INDUCED SEISMICITY

Induced seismicity refers to typically minor earthquakes and tremors that are caused
by human activity. That alters the stresses and strains on the Earth's crust. Most
induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. The figure shows various induced
seismicity.

Fig. 9.1 Various Induced Seismicity

(Source: https://www.google.co.in/search?sa=G&hl=en-
IN&q=san+andreas+fault+salton+sea&tbm)

9.1 VARIOUS TYPES OF INDUCED SEISMICITY

1. Mining induced seismicity.
2. Injection induced seismicity.
3. Reservoir induced seismicity.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

9.1.1 Mining induced seismicity

Seismicity accompanying mining exploitation results from changes in the stress field
in the rock mass near the mining excavations caused by human activity .The total state
of stress around a mine excavation is composed of two components, the ambient stress
in the rock mass and the stresses induced by mining works. If the rock mass are in a
highly pre-stressed conditions, even small stress perturbations due to mine
excavations can cause seismic events Those of them that involve a sudden and often
fault slip of rock.
9.1.2 Injection induced seismicity
Injection induced seismicity is defined as inducing seismicity by injecting liquids
into the Earth .There are many reasons for injecting water into the earth ie, for waste
water disposal and for assisting extraction of fossil fuel. It is important to distinguish
between seismic activity possibly related to hydraulic fracturing and human-induced
earthquakes related to injecting fluids down disposal wells.
9.1.3 Reservoir induced seismicity
The reservoir induced seismicity is known as the earthquake triggered by reservoir
impounding, it has been more than 70 years since the issues discovered. As early as
1931, the first RIS has been detected in Marathon Reservoir of Greece, following
more than 100 reservoirs were detected to trigger earthquakes in succession, and
several earthquakes exceed 6 to cause severe results.

Induced seismicity can also be caused by the injection of carbon dioxide as the
storage step of carbon capture and storage, which aims to sequester carbon dioxide
captured from fossil fuel production or other sources in earth’s crust as a means of
climate change mitigation. Though safe practices and existing technologies can be
utilized to reduce the risk of induced seismicity due to injection of carbon dioxide, the
risk is still significant if the storage is large in scale. The consequences of the induced
seismicity could disrupt pre-existing faults in the Earth’s crust as well as compromise
the seal integrity of the storage locations.

The seismic hazard from induced seismicity can be assessed using similar techniques
as for natural seismicity, although accounting for non-stationary seismicity.
Subsequently, a risk assessment can be performed, taking account of the seismic
hazard and the vulnerability of the exposed elements at risk (e.g. local population and

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the building stock). Finally, the risk can, theoretically at least, be mitigated, either
through modifications to the hazard or a reduction to the exposure or the vulnerability.

9.2 OCCURRENCE

In the case of occurrence of induced seismicity, two types of earthquakes can be

defined: Earthquakes which are not of tectonic nature, have shallow hypocentres and
are mainly associated with the adaptation of the stresses in the foundation rock, the
collapse of crest holes or mines, landslides. Characterized by relatively small
magnitudes, they often occur soon after the filling of the reservoir and follow the
abrupt change of the water level in the reservoir. Earthquakes of tectonic nature that
are caused by displacement of seismically active faults that cut or run through the
reservoir region. The initial stress state is usually very close to the failure point so that
even small changes of the strength characteristics at the fault plane which result from
the action of the reservoir may induce seismic activity. The epicentres of the
foreshocks with small magnitudes are usually located around the faults: the
earthquake magnitudes gradually decrease until the major shock occurs. The
aftershocks that follow the main shock may last for a certain time. Since the process of
infiltration of water into the rock masses lasts for a longer time, there is usually a time
interval between the achievement of the maximum water level and the occurrence of
the main shock. These two types of earthquakes are indicated as endogenic and
exogenic induced earthquakes.

9.3 CAUSES

Induced seismicity is mainly mentioned in association with large/high dams. There are
many ways in which induced seismicity has been seen to occur. In the past several
years, some energy technologies that inject or extract fluid from the Earth, such as oil
and gas extraction and geothermal energy development, have been found or suspected
to cause seismic events. Some energy technologies also produce wastes that may be
managed through disposal or storage by injection deep into the ground.

9.3.1 Artificial lakes

The column of water in a large and deep artificial lake alters in-situ stress along an
existing fault or fracture. In these reservoirs, the weight of the water column can
significantly change the stress on an underlying fault or fracture by increasing the total
stress through direct loading, or decreasing the effective stress through the increased

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pore water pressure. This significant change in stress can lead to sudden movement
along the fault or fracture, resulting in an earthquake. Reservoir-induced seismic
events can be relatively large compared to other forms of induced seismicity. Though
understanding of reservoir-induced seismic activity is very limited, it has been noted
that seismicity appears to occur on dams with heights larger than 330 feet (100 m).
The extra water pressure created by large reservoirs is the most accepted explanation
for the seismic activity. When the reservoirs are filled or drained, induced seismicity
can occur immediately or with a small time lag. The first case of reservoir-induced
seismicity occurred in Algeria’s Oued Fodda Dam.

The 6.3 magnitude earthquake occurred at Koynanagar in Maharashtra, India with

its epicentre, fore- and aftershocks all located near or under the Koyna Dam
reservoir. 180 people died and 1,500 were left injured. The effects of the earthquake
were felt 140 mi (230 km) away in Bombay with tremors and power outages. During
the beginnings of the Vajont Dam in Italy, there were seismic shocks recorded during
its initial fill. After a landslide and causing a massive flooding and around 2,000
deaths, it was drained and consequently seismic activity was almost non-existent. On
August 1, 1975, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake at Oroville, California, was attributed to
seismicity from a large earth-fill dam and reservoir recently constructed and filled.

9.3.2 Mining

Mining leaves voids that generally alter the balance of forces in the rock, many times
causing rock bursts. These voids may collapse producing seismic waves and in some
cases reactivate existing faults causing minor earthquakes. Natural cavern collapse
forming sinkholes would produce an essentially identical local seismic event.

9.3.3 Waste disposal wells

Injecting liquids into waste disposal wells, most commonly in disposing of produced
water from oil and natural gas wells, has been known to cause earthquakes. This high-
saline water is usually pumped into salt water disposal (SWD) wells. The resulting
increase in subsurface pore pressure can trigger movement along faults, resulting in
earthquakes.

9.3.4 Hydrocarbon extraction and storage

Large-scale fossil fuel extraction can generate earthquakes. Induced seismicity can be
also related to underground gas storage operations.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

9.3.5 Groundwater extraction

The change in crustal stress patterns caused by the large scale extraction of
groundwater has been shown to trigger earthquakes.

9.3.6 Geothermal energy

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), a new type of geothermal power technologies

that do not require natural convective hydrothermal resources, are known to be
associated with induced seismicity. EGS involves pumping fluids at pressure to
enhance or create permeability through the use of hydraulic fracturing techniques. Hot
dry rock (HDR) EGS actively creates geothermal resources through hydraulic
stimulation. Depending on the rock properties, and on injection pressures and fluid
volume, the reservoir rock may respond with tensile failure, as is common in the oil
and gas industry, or with shear failure of the rock's existing joint set, as is thought to
be the main mechanism of reservoir growth in EGS efforts.

9.3.7 Hydraulic fracturing

Hydraulic fracturing is a technique in which high-pressure fluid is injected into the

low-permeable reservoir rocks in order to induce fractures to increase hydrocarbon
production. This process is generally associated with seismic events that are too small
to be felt at the surface (with magnitudes ranging from −3 to 1), although larger
magnitude events are not excluded. For example, several cases of larger magnitude
events (M > 4) have been recorded in Canada in the unconventional resources
of Alberta and British Columbia.

9.4 Monitoring

Since geological sequestration of carbon dioxide has the potential to induce

seismicity, researchers have developed methods to monitor and model the risk of
injection-induced seismicity, in order to better manage the risks associated with this
phenomenon. Monitoring can be conducted with measurements from an instrument
like a geophone to measure the movement of the ground. Generally a network of
instruments around the site of injection is used, though many current carbon dioxide
injection sites do not utilize any monitoring devices. Modelling is an important
technique for assessing the potential for induced seismicity, and there are two primary
types of models used: physical and numerical. Physical models use measurements
from the early stages of a project to forecast how the project will behave once more

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carbon dioxide is injected, and numerical models use numerical methods to simulate
the physics of what is occurring inside the reservoir. Both modelling and monitoring
are useful tools to quantify, and thus better understand and mitigate the risks
associated with injection-induced seismicity.

The vibrations of the Earth's surface we call earthquakes are typically natural
occurrences. They're most often caused by the shifting of plates of rock under the
surface of the Earth. These plates move along fault lines, which are places where the
otherwise solid rock of the Earth's crust has cracked. When the plates slide against
each other or away from each other, the Earth vibrates violently. Less often,
earthquakes are caused by natural occurrences like volcanic eruptions. But vibrations
felt at the surface of the Earth can also result from Earth-shaking, man-made events
like underground bomb testing and mine collapses and the filling and emptying of
dam reservoirs. It's easy to see how an underground explosion can shake the Earth.
But in case of a dam it is just holding the back water. How can that cause an
earthquake? In we'll see how a dam and more specifically its reservoir activity can
trigger a quake, and we'll find out whether dams have caused earthquakes and other
"natural" disasters in the past. Most of us accept that our actions can have great effects
on our natural environment. In the case of triggering earthquakes, we're talking about
man's actions reaching deep underground, all the way down to the crust.

Building a dam is a massive feat of engineering. They are huge structures, and
their reservoirs hold vast amounts of water. The Zipingpu Dam, for instance, is 50
stories tall; its reservoir is capable of storing more than a billion cubic meters of water
from the Minjiang River. The weight and lubricating characteristics of that water may
have triggered the 2008 earthquake. It's simple if you think about it in terms of the
ground's natural state. The earth beneath a river is accustomed to supporting a certain
amount of water. That water exerts a certain amount of stress on the ground, and it
seeps into the soil to a certain depth, all depending on the natural state of a particular
body of water.

When people dam a river, and expand and contract its water volume with a
reservoir, those natural characteristics change sometimes quickly and dramatically.
We're more familiar with these changes being expressed through landslides, when
water loosens the ground supporting mountainous rock, and the seasonal raising and
lowering of reservoir water depth puts fluctuating strain on the earth. One of the

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deadliest landslides in history, in northern Italy in 1963, wiped out an entire village of
2,500 people. It occurred when 400 million cubic yards (300 million cubic meters) of
mountain rock fell into Vaiont reservoir, and the resulting tidal wave dwarfed the 856-
foot-tall (261-meter) dam, washing away the town downstream. Literally dozens of
landslides in China have been attributed to the building of the Three Gorges
Dam across the Yangtze River. In 2003, a month after the initial filling of the
reservoir, a landslide in the area killed 14 people. Dozens more landslides occurred in
2006 after the water level was raised again, and another in 2007 buried a bus. The
mechanisms at work when damming a river triggers a landslide are similar to those
that can cause an earthquake. But in the case of the earthquake, the effects are
occurring well below the surface. Until recently, the most
powerful earthquake attributed to dam activity happened in western India in 1967.
Three years after builders completed the Koyna Dam, a 6.5-magnitude earthquake hit
the area, killing 180 people.

10. RESERVOIR INDUCED SEISMICITY (RIS)

The phenomenon of dam-triggered earthquakes is known as reservoir-induced
seismicity. It's not well-understood, but basically what happens is this:

When a dam is built and the reservoir filled with water, the amount of pressure
exerted on the earth in that area changes dramatically. When the water level of
a reservoir is raised, pressure on the underlying ground increases; when the water
level is lowered, the pressure decreases. This fluctuation can stress the delicate
balance between tectonic plates beneath the surface, possibly causing them to shift.
Another factor is the water itself. When the water pressure increases, more of it is
forced into the ground, filling cracks and crevices. All of this water pressure can
expand those cracks and even create new, tiny ones in the rock, causing greater
instability below ground. What's more, as the water sinks deeper, it can act as sort of a
lubricant for rock plates that are being held in place by friction alone. The lubrication
can cause those plates to slip. In the case an earthquake, it's difficult to prove beyond a
doubt that the culprit was a dam. It's just so hard to know exactly what's going on
beneath the surface, with so many factors at work. In the case of the 2008 Sichuan
earthquake, for instance, the jury is still out. While 730 minor earthquakes were
recorded within the first year of the Zipingpu reservoir's first filling in 2004, most
scientists agree it'll take a lot more research before the Zipingpu Dam can be

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

conclusively linked to the big one. One thing we do know, however, is that a dam
cannot cause an earthquake all by itself. The risk factors, specifically unstable fault
lines, have to be there already. With the right conditions in place, though, a damn can
trigger the event earlier than would have happened naturally, and perhaps even
increase its magnitude which is why it's so dangerous to build a dam over a known
fault. And it's why so many scientists are warning of terrible results of China's Three
Gorges Dam, which is built over the Jiuwanxi and the Zigui-Badong fault lines. Some
say it's only a matter of time before the dam triggers a major earthquake, possibly like
the one in Sichuan Province in 2008.

We divide the temporal pattern of RIS into two categories. The first is
associated with initial impoundment, the raising of water level above the highest water
level achieved until then. The poroelastic response of the reservoir is a coupled
response. Initially and occurring simultaneously with the impoundment is the
undrained response. This occurs because of an increase in pore pressure in closed
pores (by fault gouge and clay). As the increased pore pressure diffuses to the
surrounding regions, there is a decrease in pore pressure (drained response). With the
arrival of a diffusive pore pressure front, the pore pressure increases and causes
seismicity. In reality all three effects occur together and the coupled response of the
reservoir depends on which effect dominates. The time for an increase in pore
pressure due to diffusion depends on the depth of the reservoir, geometry, availability
of faults/fractures, etc. For shallow reservoirs the coupled response may take a few
weeks to a few months whereas for large and deep reservoirs it may take years. In
both cases however we classify the temporal pattern of seismicity as initial seismicity.
The initial seismicity is characterized by a general lack of seismicity beneath the
deepest part of the reservoir and activity on the periphery of the reservoir. The
seismicity increases after the impoundment is completed (or highest water level is
achieved) and the largest earthquake usually occurs after that. Then there is decay in
seismicity (over 5–10 years) to preimpoundment levels.

Throughout the world there is a considerable number of earthquake associated

with water reservoir’s. Usually RIS is present when the reservoir is placed in seismic
active region, if there is an active fault in the region of the reservoir or fault structures
characterized with high seismic stress are present. Filling of the water reservoir in a
seismic active region is only the trigger of the earthquakes, that would eventually

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

happened in some later time. Usually RIS is associated with reservoirs that have 100m
or higher dams. The figure shows Hoover Dam which has a height of 221m.

`
Fig. 10.1 Hoover Dam
(Source: https://www.google.co.in/search?sa=G&hl=en-
IN&q=hoover+dam&tbm=isch&tbs )
Table 10.1 Reported cases of RIS occurrence in the world
Dam reservoir Volume Year Strongest
Country Height (x106m3) of Earthquake Mmax
(m) filling
Koyna India 103 2.780 1964 1967 6.3
Kremasta Greece 165 4.750 1965 1969 4.4
Xingfengjiang PR China 105 10.500 1959 1962 6.1
Kariba Zimbabue 128 160.368 1959 1963 6.2
Hoover USA 221 36.703 1936 1939 5.0
Marathon Greece 63 41 1930 1938 5.7
Aswan Egypt 115 165 1978 1981 5.3
Benmore New 118 2.1 1965 1966 4.5
Zealand
Monteynard France 155 240 1962 1963 4.9
Kurobe Japan 186 199 1960 1961 4.9
Bajina-Bašta Serbija 89 240 1965 1967 4.7-5
Nurek Iran 317 10.400 1972 1972 4.6
Mangla Pakistan 116 70250 1967 1967 4.2
Grandval France 88 292 1959 1963 4.7
Canalles Spain 150 678 1960 1962 4.7

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

Table 10.1 shows the different identified cases of water reservoir induced seismicity
throughout the world. There are seven events with earthquakes with magnitude M>5.7
on Richter scale. The strongest registered earthquakes were the one on Koyna Dam
(gravity dam), India M=6.3 and the Kariba Dam in Zimbabue, earthquake with
M=6.2. In most cases of RIS induced seismicity there were no significant seismic
activity at the region prior to dam’s construction
The RIS mechanism is very complicated and varies from reservoir to reservoir. The
main reasons for this are the different geological, tectonic, seismo-tectonic and
seismological conditions of the region below and around the reservoirs. The RIS
occurrence in the region of a reservoir complexly depends on the litho-geological
composition, the hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media and the
tectonic characteristics of the terrains in the region. In order that conditions be created
for the occurrence of induced seismicity, it is necessary that the hydrogeological
conditions be also satisfied. This refers to infiltration of the water from the reservoir
into the deep zones of the earthquake hypocentres or into the cavern structures in the
carbonate rocks in the surrounding of the reservoir.
11. PHYSICAL PROCESS FOR SEISMICITY IN WATER
RESERVOIR
The major causes of bursts in seismicity at the reservoir are of two types they are,
(1) Rapid response, i.e., the seismicity immediately follows reservoir impoundment as
a direct effect of loading, and
(2) Delayed response, i.e., seismicity can also occur a long time after impoundment. In
this last case, the seismicity can be correlated with the water level or with the rapid
increase in the water level
Type 1 Seismicity is dominated by the elastic response to the reservoir load, while
type 2 is dominated by the pore pressure diffusion process. There are substantial
differences in the temporal and spatial characteristics of the response of the crust to
these processes and it should be possible to identify the dominant mechanism in some
cases, through a comparison of changes in seismicity with the water level in the
reservoir.
12. METHODOLOGY
Evaluation of weightage of factors affecting reservoir induced seismicity by
Analytical Hierarchy Process.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

The factors which are likely to affect reservoir induced seismicity are finalised from
previous investigation papers and history of reservoir induced seismicity. Even though
the factors affecting the RIS is complicated and the exact mechanism is not yet found
out, this study focuses on seven factors which have a direct dependence on causing
reservoir induced seismicity. These factors are namely:
• Water load
• Geological condition of area
• Fault characteristics
• Fault activity
• Seismic zone
• Karst topography
• Water conductance of soil below
An expert opinion is used to create the comparison matrix which correlates the
Relative importance of the above seven factors affecting reservoir induced seismicity.
The right Eigen vectors of the matrix gives the weightage of the seven factors
affecting reservoir induced seismicity. From the expert opinion the pair wise
comparison matrix is formed. The comparison matrix is calculated and values
obtained were checked for Consistency and were found to be consistent.
13. CALIBRATION OF EQUATION OF RESERVOIR INDUCED
SEISMICITY MAGNITUDE BY REGRESSION ANALYSIS
The second part of the study is the calibration of equation for magnitude of reservoir
induced seismicity magnitude by regression analysis. This is done by collecting
seismic data of seismic and aseismic dams across the nation. It is seen from previous
studies and investigations that all the seven factors affecting seismicity can be divided
each into four sub factors. These sub factors are incorporated when seismic detail of
each dam is found out. All the sub factors are given weightage ranging from 1 to 4
with 1 causing the least chance of reservoir induced seismicity and 4 showing highest
probability of causing reservoir induced seismicity.
Initial and Protracted Seismicity, We classify the seismic response of a reservoir
into two temporal categories. The first, which is widely observed, is associated with
the initial impoundment or large lake-level changes. This category also applies to
seismicity associated with lake-level increases above the highest level attained thus
far. We call this category of RIS, “initial seismicity”. The second category of

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

seismicity, which is observed in rare cases, occurs after the effect of initial filling has
diminished. It persists for many years without a decrease in frequency and magnitude.
We call it “protracted seismicity”. The initial seismicity results from the instantaneous
effect of loading (or unloading) and the delayed effect of pore pressure diffusion.
Following this initial activity, there is an increase in the frequency and magnitude of
earthquakes. The largest associated event usually occurs after completion of the
reservoir impoundment and the attainment of maximum water level. The delay
between the start of filling and the larger events varies from months to years and is
associated with the reservoir and local site characteristics. Spatially there is a general
stabilization and an absence of seismicity beneath the deepest part of the reservoir and
widespread seismicity on the periphery, migrating outwards in one or more directions.
This period of increased seismicity is followed by a gradual decay in activity (over
months to years) to preimpoundment levels, indicating the cessation of the coupled
poroelastic response to the impoundment.
In the case of protracted seismicity, modelling suggests that the pore pressure
increase that causes the seismicity is related to the frequency and amplitude of lake-
level changes. Peak changes in pore pressures occur directly beneath the lake and
decrease away from it. Strength changes show delays with respect to lake levels. In
this category, earthquakes are associated with reservoirs with large and or rapid lake-
level rises and longer periods (lower frequencies) of water level changes. Seismicity is
observed both beneath the deepest part of the reservoir and in surrounding areas. The
seismicity continues for decades and does not appear to die out. The poroelastic
response of the reservoir is a coupled response. Initially and occurring simultaneously
with the impoundment is the undrained response. This occurs because of an increase
in pore pressure in closed pores (by fault gouge and clay). As the increased pore
pressure diffuses to the surrounding regions, there is a decrease in pore pressure
(drained response). With the arrival of a diffusive pore pressure front, the pore
pressure increases and causes seismicity.
14. CASE STUDY
14.1 KOYNA – WARNA REGION, INDIA
The 1967Koynanagar earthquake occurred near Koynanagar town in Maharashtra,
India on 11 December. The 6.5 magnitude shock hit near the site of Koyna dam and
claimed at least 180 lives and injured over 1,500. More than 80% of the houses were

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

damaged in Koyana Nagar Township, but it didn't cause any major damage to the dam
except some cracks which were quickly repaired. There have been several earthquakes
of smaller magnitude there since 1967. The deadly earthquake caused a 10–15 cm
fissure in the ground which spread over a length of 25 kilometres.
Earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region in India are confined to an epicentre
region of about 30×20 km2 (Gupta, 2002). Figure 14.2 shows the location of the
Koyna–Warna region and also the location of the epicentres of the earthquakes of a
magnitude greater than 5 (M >5).The figure shows the Koyna Dam.

Fig. 14.1 Koyna Dam

(Source: https://www.google.co.in/search?sa=G&hl=en-
IN&q=koyna+dam&tbm)

Fig. 14.2 Location of the Koyna–Warna region. Stars denote the location of the
earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5.
(Source: The relation between seismicity and water level changes in the
Koyna–Warna region, India)

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

The water levels from the time of impoundment, 1967 in Koyna reservoir and
1985 in Warna reservoir, are shown in figure 14.3(a) and figure 14.3(b) respectively.
From, it is clear that the water-level variations in the reservoirs show the annual cycle
of loading and unloading.

Fig. 14.3 (a) The Koyna Reservoir water level from 1967-2008
(b) The Warna Reservoir water level from 1985-2008
(Source: The relation between seismicity and water level changes in the
Koyna–Warna region, India)

The seismicity has been observed since 1963 in the Koyna–Warna region, India after
the impoundment of the Koyna reservoir in 1961 and Warna reservoir in 1985. The
mechanism of the reservoir induced seismicity in this region was studied by Gupta
and it is due to the diffusion of pore pressure from the reservoirs. The stress memory
i.e., in terms of exceeding the previous water level maxima, was found to be the most
important factor for the occurrence of high seismicity in the region. The reservoir
triggered earthquakes have special features like high b value, increase of seismicity
with an increase in water level. The b value is calculated using Guttenberg Richter
relationship.
Log N = a −bM
Where N is the number of earthquakes, M is magnitude, a and b are constants. “b” is
the slope of Guttenberg-Richter magnitude frequency relationship. The b value
describes relative size distributions of earthquake. Normally b value is 1 for swarm

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

activity b value will be greater than 1. The recharge of aquifers increases the confined
hydrodynamic pressures and flows along the boundary faults which also act as ground
water conduits. This, in turn, increases lubrication and decreases the friction along the
faults; as a result, earthquakes which would have occurred later in time are triggered.
The empirical correlation between seismicity, rainfall and rivers has been made.
Such observations by early workers can be interpreted to suggest increases in fluid
pressure are transmitted downward into a crystalline permeable upper crust where
they trigger earthquakes. The best correlations between the pore pressure diffusion
and seismicity are those associated with reservoir induced seismicity. Talwani and
Acree analysed the cases of induced seismicity, which are interpreted as dominated by
the pore pressure diffusion and found the hydraulic diffusivity is usually in the range
of 0.5 m2/s to 5.0 m2/s. Recently the vertical diffusivity of the Koyna has been given
by Telesca bases on the analysis of the cross correlation between seismicity and the
water level in the Koyna reservoir as 0.2 m2/s. In this work, the cross correlation
between the water level time series with the earthquake activity in Koyna and Warna
reservoirs have been studied and on the bases of the correlation coefficient the range
of the hydraulic diffusivity is calculated.
14.1.1 Data analysis
Earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region in India are con- fined to an epicentre region
of about 30 × 20 km2. Figure 14.2 shows the location of the Koyna–Warna region and
also the location of the epicentres of the earthquakes of a magnitude greater than 5.
The water levels from the time of impoundment, 1967 in Koyna reservoir and 1985 in
Warna reservoir, are shown in figure14.3. From this figure 14.3, it is clear that the
water-level variations in the reservoirs show the annual cycle of loading and
unloading. The correlation between propagation of pore pressure front and depths, and
the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitudes exceeding 4.5, suggests that the pore
pressure diffusion is playing a key role in controlling the occurrence of earthquakes
associated with Koyna and Warna. The yearly cross correlation between the Koyna
reservoir water-level data and the seismicity has been calculated from 1997 to 2008
with a time period of 1 year. The completeness magnitude for the earthquake series is
1.2, i.e., all the events of magnitude greater than or equal to 1.2 are considered in this
study. The maximum correlation coefficient and the time lag are computed and are
shown in figure 14.5. The cross correlation between the Koyna reservoir water level
and the seismicity of the region is shown in figure 14.6 for different years. From

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

figure 14.6, it is clear that the correlation coefficient is between 0.1 and 0.5. figure
14.4 show the seismic activities during the period 1997- 2008.

Fig. 14.4 The seismic activity during the period 1997-2008

(Source: The relation between seismicity and water level changes in the
Koyna–Warna region, India)

Fig. 14.5 (a) The maximum correlation coefficient for different years. (b) The time
lag for different years. (c) The diffusivity values for different years. (d) The number of
events for different years.

(Source: The relation between seismicity and water level changes in the
Koyna–Warna region, India)

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

Fig. 14.6 Cross correlation between Koyna reservoir water level and the seismicity of
the region for (a) 1997 (b) 2001 (c) 2004 (d) 2006

(Source: The relation between seismicity and water level changes in the
Koyna–Warna region, India)

To compare the correlation coefficients between water level and seismicity in

Konya reservoir and in Warna reservoir, these quantities are also calculated. The
results taken from recent arbitrary datasets i.e., from 2000 to 2008 reservoir water
level datasets and their correlation coefficients with the seismicity in Konya and in
Warna reservoirs, it is seen that the correlation coefficient between the seismicity and
the water level data in Warna reservoir is either equal or greater than the
corresponding correlation coefficient in the Konya reservoir. These results show that
the seismicity in the recent year is closer to Warna than Koyna reservoir i.e., Warna
reservoir is more dominating than Koyna reservoir. The temporal migration of
seismicity from Koyna to Warna in the region is discussed by Rao and Singh (2008)
and these results also support the active role of Warna reservoir of recent years.
Figure 14.7 shows the cross correlation between the Koyna reservoir water level and
the seismicity of the region from 2001 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2008, respectively,
with a time period of 4 year.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

Fig. 14.7 Cross correlation between the reservoir water level and the seismicity of the
region (a) 2001-2004 (b) 2005-2008.

(Source: The relation between seismicity and water level changes in the
Koyna–Warna region, India)

The variation in the hydraulic diffusivity of the region with time is calculated based
on the time lag of each year. The diffusivity (D) obtained by Saar and Manga with the
assumption that the periodic term is zero during the failure time in the Diffusion
equation The diffusivity of the Koyna region is given by Telesca (2010) as 0.2 ± 0.1
by using the time lag of 223 days obtained from the 2001–2004 datasets of Koyna
reservoir water-level data. The present work shows the large variation of the
diffusivity value D. The numerical results of the diffusivity is calculated for all the
time intervals and shown in figure which shows a large range of the diffusivity. For
the datasets from 3 to 4 year the diffusivity value is mostly low and ranges from 0.1
m2/s to 1.0 m2/s. But for one year sets, the diffusivity values range from 1 m2/s to 10
m2/s. From most of the cases, we observed that all calculated correlation coefficient
values shows 95 % significance. The total from all the results obtained from these
studies, it is concluded that the variation in the diffusivity value is very high and the
range is from 0.1–10 m2/s.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

14.2 CONCLUSION OF CASE STUDY

The analysis of the water levels in both reservoirs and the seismicity is shown and the
cross correlation between the reservoir water levels and the seismicity suggest
different values of time lags. We have observed hydraulic diffusivity (D) as 0.1 m2/s
to 10 m2/s for the region. The results indicate the active role of Warna reservoir in
recent day’s seismic activity. Reservoir induced seismicity is a phenomena whose
exact mechanism and factors affecting it has not yet been found out. In this study, we
also made an attempt to find out the equation for reservoir induced seismicity by use
of statistical information and expert opinions. The tool of analytical hierarchy process
and regression analysis is used to find out the equation. The first part of the work
consists of evaluation of weightage of factors affecting reservoir induced seismicity
by an expert opinion followed by analytical hierarchy process.

15. CONCLUSION
When a dam is built and the reservoir filled with water, the amount of pressure exerted
on the earth in that area changes dramatically. When the water level of a reservoir is
raised, pressure on the underlying ground increases; when the water level is lowered,
the pressure decreases. This fluctuation can stress the delicate balance between
tectonic plates beneath the surface, possibly causing them to shift. This is simply
reservoir induced seismicity.

Another factor causing RIS is the water itself. When the water pressure increases,
more of it is forced into the ground, filling cracks and crevices. All of this water
pressure can expand those cracks and even create new, tiny ones in the rock, causing
greater instability below ground. What's more, as the water sinks deeper, it can act as
sort of a lubricant for rock plates that are being held in place by friction alone. The
lubrication can cause those plates to slip. The temporal distribution of induced
seismicity following the filling of large reservoirs exhibits two types of response;
instantaneous and delayed. They suggested that the seismicity that began almost
immediately following initial impoundment was due to the instantaneous elastic
response and the undrained response, resulting in an increase in pore pressure. The
delayed seismicity e.g., at Koyna, was attributed to an increase in pore pressure due to
the diffusion of pore pressure to hypocentral depths.

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Reservoir Induced Seismicity

In the case an earthquake, it's difficult to prove beyond a doubt that the culprit was
a dam. It's just so hard to know exactly what's going on beneath the surface, with so
many factors at work. One thing we do know, however, is that a dam cannot cause an
earthquake all by itself. The risk factors, specifically unstable fault lines, have to be
there already. With the right conditions in place, though, a damn can trigger the event
earlier than would have happened naturally, and perhaps even increase its magnitude
which is why it's so dangerous to build a dam over a known fault.

28