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ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)

DAILY REPORT & OUTLOOK_November 11, 2010

PSE Index

Pts Change

% Change

Total Volume

Total Value

Advancers

Decliners

Unchanged

4,197.57

-62.78

-2.28%

2.088B

Php6.732B

24

116

36

-62.78 -2.28% 2.088B Php6.732B 24 116 36 REVIEW & OUTLOOK: THE MAIN INDEX fell by its

REVIEW & OUTLOOK:

THE MAIN INDEX fell by its biggest percentage margin in nearly 10 weeks as local investors were spooked by heavy foreign selling right off the bat. The PSEI dropped to as much as -94 points before buying activity near the close erased a significant part of the losses, yet still 63 points short of the the previous day's level at 4,197.57.

The Index breezed through a number of support levels without, as the cliché goes, “breaking a sweat.” Sustaining its close under 4,270, the composite of 30-companies ignored “catch-levels” at 4,250, 4,230 and the 4,200- psychological line, raising questions of a possible terminal move for the barely-two year old bull.

Magnifying the results in the local market were mixed closes by its Asia Pacific peers. Major markets Hang Seng, Shanghai, and Bombay were all in the red. Save for Bangkok, which joined Manila with a half-percentage point

Earlier, the OECD was Philippine

slump, the rest of the ASEAN 6 gained.

GDP trailing the group for this year and the next.

The night prior, US stocks fell as the dollar strengthened and metal prices fell. The Dow Industrials traded in positive territory briefly in morning trades before drawing a generally downward path the rest of the way. The two-day slide however fails to substantially alter a 2- and-a-half month uptrend. Sentiments remain mixed on the pace of the broad economy's recovery. The Dow settled at 11,346.75 at the bell, -0.53% below Monday's close. The broader S&P500 gave up -0.781% while the Nasdaq values were squeezed -0.66 percent.

European markets, on the other hand, gained Tuesday, behind strong corporate earnings. The Paris bourse led the majors percentage-wise, climbing 0.82% to 3,945.71. London's FTSE 100 and Frankfurt's DAX 50 both rose by 0.43% and 0.55%, respectively. The continent was at the forefront of the prior day's decline in world markets, particularly in Asia, as concerns on its members' sovereign debt situations resurfaced.

As this is being written however, both Europe and US markets are deep in negative territory. This despite positive figures from the US labor front showing initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in four months.

There was much attention to foreign funds activity yesterday. Nevertheless, the over-all picture remains almost unchanged. Although the last four sessions have aggregated net foreign sales worth php1.18B, the year-to-date position still stands at php56.327B. Furthermore, while this segment of the market aggressively sold the Holding Firms, Service and Mining & Oil sectors, they have, on-

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.

ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)

DAILY REPORT & OUTLOOK_November 11, 2010

PSE Index

Pts Change

% Change

Total Volume

Total Value

Advancers

Decliners

Unchanged

4,197.57

-62.78

-2.28%

2.088B

Php6.732B

24

116

36

balance over the same four days, increased positions in Financial and Property counters – at least this is what the numbers tell us. They were on the sell side in all four days with respect to Holding Firms and three days in Mining & Oil. Note however, that isolating their near-panic inducing trades, positive positions were actually taken in Financial, Property, Service and Mining & Oil issues. The table below shows their net activities over the last four sessions, based on figures culled from the daily quotation reports: (in million php)

DATE

FINANCIAL

INDUSTRIAL

HOLDING FIRMS

PROPERTY

SERVICE

MINING & OIL

11/05/10

133.30

24.34

-68.19

118.91

-218.52

-61.97

11/08/10

-57.64

56.81

-29.52

-6.79

-326.87

-54.62

11/09/10

109.07

1.33

-589.24

-60.77

45.40

-3.71

11/10/10

88.61

-140.81

-315.74

36.05

192.99

5.64

TOTAL (4 days)

273.35

-58.34

-1,002.69

87.40

-307.00

-114.66

Noticeably, the sectors that showed net foreign buying or the least foreign selling over the last four sessions, registered the least percentage losses. Furthermore, a good number of stocks actually posted gains, defying their respective sectoral trends. Among these are: FINANCIALS: SECB, CHIB and PNB; INDUSTRIALS:

SMC, MUSX, HLCM, JFC, AP, PNX SMB and PIP; HOLDING FIRMS:

and

MINING & OIL: APX/B, MA/B, LC and PX.

ABA,

AEV;

PROPERTY:

BEL,

RLC;

SERVICE:

LIB,

ABS;

The bar chart shows the daily net foreign trade totals for the November-to-date. Note that yesterday's total showed a possible dissipation of the pressure, despite the perceived massive sell-off as the day was progressing. In fact, as even the table above will show, the drag posed by Holding Firms eased up, replaced, however by a turn-around in the net positive position in Industrials.

0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
500,000.00 400,000.00 300,000.00 200,000.00 100,000.00 - (100,000.00) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (200,000.00)
500,000.00
400,000.00
300,000.00
200,000.00
100,000.00
-
(100,000.00)
1
2
3
4
5 6
7
(200,000.00)
(300,000.00)
(400,000.00)
(500,000.00)
(600,000.00)
Thousands

The ADL was pulled to the -340 level, matching a prior low point coinciding with the PSEI trading between 4,150-4,200 and breaking under the most recent trough (-295) with the Index at the 4,100-4,120 range. In previous reports, we had raised the flag of caution of an impending correction solely on the basis of this indicator which then showed a lower peak as the index broke through an registered its latest new all-time high close at 4,397.30. In terms of the ADL, the “true” market top at 4,130, suggesting that the “weakness” had began to develop from that point onwards. This same suggestion is supplanted by the recent shift to distributive pressure in the Accumulation-Distribution Line.

The PSEI has thus erased practically all gains of the last two weeks as the market rallied from 4,190 to almost 4,400. Measured over the full swing of the 2009-originated uptrend, however, the recent

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.

ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)

DAILY REPORT & OUTLOOK_November 11, 2010

PSE Index

Pts Change

% Change

Total Volume

Total Value

Advancers

Decliners

Unchanged

4,197.57

-62.78

-2.28%

2.088B

Php6.732B

24

116

36

decline wiped off just 7.6% of the total advance. This remains far from the 20% level chartists are concerned with as a prospective reversal point to mark the end of the present bull. Given present index levels, this key reversal point, a break suggesting a terminal move, lies at the 3,870-line. (see chart below)

OUTLOO K

ALL things considered, the market may have acted “irrationally” during yesterday's session.

acted “irrationally” during yesterday's session. THE country's macroeconomic indicators remain positive.

THE country's macroeconomic indicators remain positive. Inflation is contained at 4%, well within the government's targets. Remittances are at record-levels, lending stability to the local currency, albeit raising some worries from the export sector and OFW families, the principal beneficiaries of these inward flow of dollars. Gross international reserves are likewise at never-before- reached levels. And despite the OECD's outlook placing the country's GDP growth at the tailend of the ASEAN Six,a 6% pace is nothing to sneeze at. In a certain respect, this is a deja vu of the post Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 when the country held up against the contagion but registered slower growth pace among its peers during the recovery period. Real interest rates range between marginal negative to a low positive, which make equities an attractive wealth creation vehicle. On the other hand, the low interest rate regime is a boon to business expansions and capital investments as well as to a certain degree, for firms seeking to ease their debt burdens. The peso continues to gain strength versus the dollar.

The socio-political front is stable. Aside from the recent travel advisories on account of a supposed terror threat, there have been no immediate threats of upheavals that may create uncertainties in the business and investment environs.

On a micro-level, earnings have been generally impressive. In the least sense, reported results have met expectations, save for a couple that provided some disappointment. Four major companies that reported earnings in recent briefings all showed double-digt growths in their bottomlines and further expressed optimism over their full-year profits. MWC and ALI both reported 30% increases in net profits Tuesday. Yesterday, MPI and VLL showed positive numbers.

From a technical standpoint, the four-day slide which squeezed 4.5% off equity values, may be ripe for a technical rebound. Adding confidence to this outlook was yesterday's late surge towards the close. That may be evidence enough that buyers have begun to step in as the index fell under 4,200. We may expect a technical rebound with the index returning above the 4,200-line, possibly testing the 4,230- initial upper limit. Immediate support is at 4,130-4,150 range. Residual negative sentiment, carried over from the four-day slide, may temper any surge past the 1.0% mark with profit-taking. Hunting for long-term bargains will provide the counter-balance.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.