“You don’t have to be great to start, but you have

to start to be great.”
- Zig Ziglar
LESSON 2

PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
 OUTLINE
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• Binomial Distribution
• Poisson Distribution
• Hypergeometric Distribution

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• Exponential Distribution
• Normal Distribution
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

a mathematical function that

PROBABILITY provides the probabilities of
DISTRIBUTION occurrence of different possible
outcomes in an experiment.
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Developed using the combination of concepts of normal curves and its
parameters (mean, variance, standard deviation) and the concepts of
probability theory.

Useful because it is a model of a theoretically perfect frequency distribution

for a population.

It gives a view of the population which allows the determination of values for
the mean, variance, and standard deviation.
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

Probability Distribution

Are symbols (A, B, x, y, etc.) that can take on any of a specified set
VA R I A B L ES of values.

When the value of a variable is the outcome of a statistical

RANDOM VARIABLES experiment that variable is a random variable.

EXAMPLES OF RANDOM VARIABLES:

x = number of defective circuit boards randomly selected from a batch of 25 boards
x = SAT score for a randomly selected college applicant
x = time headway in traffic flow in seconds for two consecutive cars on a freeway
during a period of heavy flow
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

Probability Distribution

RANDOM VARIABLES
DISCRETE CONTINUOUS
Discrete random variables have a Continuous random variables have an
countable number of outcomes infinite continuum of possible values.

Examples: Dead/alive, Examples: blood pressure, weight, the

treatment/placebo, dice, counts, etc. speed of a car, the real numbers from 1
to 6.
 INTRODUCTION
LESSON 2

Probability Distribution

PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS
A probability function maps the possible values of x against their respective
probabilities of occurrence, P(x)

P(x) is a number from 0 to 1.0.

The area under a probability function is always 1.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
Binomial Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Hypergeometric Distribution
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

It describes the probability of

occurrence of each value of a
DISCRETE discrete random variable.

PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

With a discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the discrete random variable can
be associated with a non-zero probability. Thus, a discrete probability distribution is often
presented in tabular form.

Requirements for a Discrete Probability Distribution

(1) 0  p( x)  1

(2)
 p(x) = 1
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

The population mean, which measures the average value of x in the population, is
also called the expected value of the random variable x. It is the value that you
would expect to observe on average if the experiment is repeated over and over
again.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

Let x be a discrete random variable with probability distribution p(x). The mean or
MEAN expected value of x is given as

 = E (x ) =  xp (x )
where the elements are summed over all values of the random variable x.

Let x be a discrete random variable with probability distribution p(x) and mean.
VARIANCE
The variance of x is
 = ( x −  ) p ( x)
2 2

where the summation is over all values of the random variable x.

The standard deviation  of x is equal to the square root of its variance.

STANDARD
DEVIATION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

An electronics store sells a particular model of computer notebook. There are only four notebooks in
stock, and the manager wonders what today’s demand for this particular model will be. She learns from
the marketing department that the probability distribution for x, the daily demand for the laptop, is as
shown in the table.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5
p(x) .10 .40 .20 .15 .10 .05

Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of x.

 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of x.

 =  2 = 1.79 =1.34 BINOMIAL

DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A Binomial Experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:

• The experiment consists of n identical trials.

• Each trial results in one of two outcomes: Success, S and Failure, F.
• The probability of success on a single trial is equal to p and remains the same from trial to
trial. The probability of failure is equal to (1 – p) = q.
• The trials are independent, that is, the outcome on one trial does not affect the outcome
on other trials.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A binomial experiment consists of n identical trials with the probability of success p on each trial.

The probability of k successes in n trials is

n! for values of k = 0, 1, 2, . . ., n.
P(x = k) = C p q n k n−k
= k n −k
p q
k !( n − k ) !
k

k : The number of successes that result from the binomial experiment.

n : The number of trials in the binomial experiment.
Notations

p : The probability of success on an individual trial.

q : The probability of failure on an individual trial. (This is equal to 1 - p.)
n! : The factorial of n (also known as n factorial).
nCk: The number of combinations of n things, taken r at a time.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

MEAN  = np

VARIANCE  2 = npq

STANDARD DEVIATION  = npq

 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

TOSS COIN ACTIVITY

 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

1. Suppose a die is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 2

fours?

2. The probability that a student is accepted to a prestigious college is 0.3. If 5

students from the same school apply, what is the probability that at most 2
are accepted?

3. In a study of lifetimes for a certain type of battery, it was found that the
probability of a lifetime X exceeding 4 hours is 0.135. If three such batteries
are in use in independently operating systems, find the probability that:
a. Only one of the batteries lasts 4 hours or more.
b. At least one battery lasts 4 hours or more.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

Engineering Applications of Binomial Probability Distribution

Model

Two alternative possibilities / outcomes:

• In a series of piles driven into a soil stratum, each pile may or may not encounter boulders or hard
rock
• In monitoring the daily water quality of a river on the downstream side of an industrial plant, the
water tested daily may or may not meet the pollution control standards
• The individual items produced on an assembly line may or may not pass the inspection to ensure
product quality
• In a seismically active region, a building may or may not be damaged annually
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of x.

 =  2 = 1.79 =1.34 POISSON

DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:

• The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or failures.

• Counts or events occur randomly and independently of one another.

• The average number of successes (μ) that occurs in a specified region is known.

• The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the region.

• The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is virtually zero.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A Poisson distribution is a tool that helps to predict the probability of certain events
from happening when you know how often the event has occurred.

• The number of bacteria per small volume of fluid

• The number of customer arrivals at a checkout counter during a given minute
• The number of machine breakdowns during a given day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given intersection during a given time period
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Let µ be the average number of times that an event occurs in a certain period of time or space.
The probability of k occurrences of this event is

𝑒 −λ λ 𝑘 for values of k = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . .n
𝑃 𝑥=𝑘 =
𝑘!
e : A constant equal to approximately 2.71828.
(Actually, e is the base of the natural logarithm system.)
Notations

k : The actual number of successes that occur in a specified region.

λ : The mean number of successes that occur in a specified region.
P(x) : The Poisson probability that exactly x successes occur in a Poisson experiment,
when the mean number of successes is μ.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

MEAN 

VARIANCE 

STANDARD DEVIATION = 
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

1. The average number of condo units sold by an agent of AyalaLand Premier is 2 condos per
day. What is the probability that exactly 3 condo units will be sold tomorrow?

2. The average no. of hours in a month that a die attach machine in SSOT 6 is shut down due to
index jamming problem is 4 for the last 12 months. What is the probability that a certain die
attach machine in SSOT8 will be shut down for 6 hours in the succeeding month, assuming
that the crisis is still prevailing?

3. The average no. of mold voids rejections per 1000-unit lot in a 5-lot evaluation run is
estimated to be 10. Find the probability that a given lot contains more than 15 mold voids
rejects?
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of x.

 =  2 = 1.79 =1.34 HYPERGEOMETRIC

DISTRIBUTION
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A hypergeometric experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following

properties:
• A sample of size n is randomly selected without replacement from a population of N items.

• In the population, M items can be classified as successes, and N - M items can be classified as
failures.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A population contains M successes and N – M failures. The probability of exactly k successes in a
random sample of size n is
M N −M
N!
P( x = k ) =
C C for values of k that depend
k n−k
C = N

n!(N − n )!
N on N, M, and n with n
C n

N : The number of items in the population.

Notations

n : The number of items in the sample.

k : The number of items in the sample that are classified as successes.
M : The number of items in the population that are classified as successes.
M Ck : The number of combinations of M things, taken k at a time.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY AND VARIABILITY

M 
MEAN  = n M 
 
 = n N 
 NM  N −M  N − n 
 2 = n M  N
  −  N − 

NM  N − 1 
n
VARIANCE  2 = n N 
 N  N  N − 1 

STANDARD DEVIATION
𝜎= 𝜎2
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES

1. Suppose we randomly select 5 cards without replacement

from an ordinary deck of playing cards. What is the
probability of getting exactly 2 red cards (i.e., hearts or
diamonds)?
2. In an assembly-line production of industrial robots, gearbox assemblies can be installed in 1
minute each if holes have been properly drilled in the boxes and in 10 minutes each if the
holes must be redrilled. Twenty gearboxes are in stock, and it is assumed that two will have
improperly drilled holes are to be randomly selected from the 20 available for the
installation in the next Five (5) gearboxes ve robots in line. Find the probability that all five
boxes will fit properly.
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
LESSON 2

SEATWORK #1
1. For a manufacturing industry, the number of industrial accidents averages three per week.
a. Find the probability that at most four accidents will occur in a given week.
b. Find the probability that two accidents will occur in a given day.
2. Suppose a large lot contains 10% defective fuses. Four fuses are randomly sampled from the
lot. Find the probability that at least one fuse in the sample of four is defective.
3. A personnel director selects two employees for a certain job from a group of six employees,
of which one is female and five are male. Find the probability that the female is selected for
one of the jobs.
 CONTINUOUS
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Exponential Distribution
Normal Distribution
 END OF
PRESENTATION