The Seismic Hazardscape of New Zealand

Mark Stirling
Professor of Earthquake Science
Introduction

• Plate tectonic setting of New Zealand

• Seismic hazards for University of Otago campuses

• Kaikoura earthquake investigations

Plate Tectonics

• New Zealand lies on the

boundary of the Pacific and
Australian plates

• The plate boundary is

expressed by a zone of
active earthquake faults,
seismicity, and crustal strain
Seismicity
• Moderate to high rates of crustal
(shallow) seismicity along the plate
boundary, and at depth under the
North Island and Fiordland

• Relatively low levels of seismicity in

Auckland/Northland and
Otago/Southland

• Low seismicity rates in the Canterbury

Plains pre 2010

• High seismicity rates in Wellington

Earthquake Faults
Geodetic strain

Log Shear Strain

max(-2.5,log10 (shear strain))-
with Principal Contraction
Directions
Wellington
• The greater Wellington region has had two major earthquakes (M>7)
in historic time, but there are many other faults that could produce
major earthquakes close to the city

• Wellington Fault

• Ohariu Fault

• Pukerua Fault

• Hikurangi subduction zone

Wellington area faults
Wairarapa Fault and M8.1-8.2 1855 Wairarapa earthquake
 Wellington experienced significant damage
Wellington Ground from recent Cook Strait and Kaikoura
Motions earthquakes

The city is not earthquake resilient (cf

Christchurch)

A major local earthquake will have

catastrophic impacts

Anna Kaiser, GNS Science

Christchurch
• Seismically quiet until the M7.1 2010 Darfield earthquake and Canterbury
earthquake sequence.
 Christchurch
• Christchurch has probably had it’s worst-case earthquake: Direct hit on the city
in the form of the M6.2 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake

• Other major earthquakes are expected to occur at greater distances from the
city: Southern Alps foothills and north Canterbury (c.50km distance), and
Alpine Fault (>100km distance)

• The new Christchurch will be a more earthquake resilient city than before:
building stock, hazard guidelines, and community

• Good ground conditions in vicinity of Otago University campus

 Dunedin
• Low seismicity area. Akatore and Titri Faults are located close to the city.

• May have had it’s worst case events in the time period 750-1300 yrs BP: Akatore
Fault study

• However, building stock is old and fragile: regional earthquakes will be damaging
Dunedin
• 13 earthquake faults within 100 km of
Dunedin city

• Fiordland and Alpine Fault earthquakes could

also produce significant damage to the city’s
old built environment
Auckland and Invercargill
• Lowest seismicity areas of the country, and closest active faults >50km distant.

• Hard ground conditions at Auckland campus: good news for seismic hazard

• Soft ground conditions in Invercargill: susceptible to strong shaking and ground

damage from major Alpine Fault and Fiordland earthquakes
Auckland and Invercargill
Earthquake Hazard
Hazard rank by city: Tentative Risk rank by city:
1.Wellington 1.Wellington
2.Christchurch 2.Dunedin or Auckland
3.Dunedin 3.Christchurch
4.Auckland/Invercargill 4.Invercargill
 The Mw 7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake
Location and aftershocks Focal Mechanisms
Up to Friday 25th November Mainshock thrust mechanism
Two M6+ aftershocks (largest M6.3) occurred Aftershock mechanisms thrust and strike-slip
within two hours of the mainshock.

John Ristau

Epicentre
M7.8

Stephen
Bannister
Observed fault
ruptures and
amount of
displacement (m)
InSAR
Radar satellites orbiting at 700 km measure the displacement of the Earth’s surface
by measuring the change in the path length between two radar acquisitions.

Each contour represents 11.5 cm of ground motion either towards or away from the
satellite

Ian Hamling
Coseismic geodetic Vertical

measurements
Hmax: 6m; Vmax: 2m Horizontal

Sigrun Hreinsdottir et al (preliminary 6/12/16)

Ground Motions: Peak Ground
Acceleration (PGA) • PGA confirmed up to 1.3g
(Ward station)

• Ground shaking significantly

lower in Christchurch than
Wellington due to northward
rupture from epicentre and
distribution of fault slip

Anna Kaiser
Humps-Leader Fault Fault

Active fault trace AFDB

+Barrell et al 2012
2016 Surface rupture
2012 NSHM fault source
 The Woodchester
Wall

Photo: Kate Pedley

Photo: Andy Nicol
Hundalee Fault

Active fault trace AFDB

+Barrell et al 2012
2016 Surface rupture
2012 NSHM fault source
 Photo: Mark Stirling Photo: Julie Rowland

NE trend thrust , ~
1m vertical
3.7m right-lateral, and
2m vertical slip at coast

Photo: Mark Stirling

Papatea Fault

Papatea fault
Active fault trace AFDB
+ NIWA
2016 Surface rupture
2012 NSHM fault source
 Western coastal trace (left-lateral, reverse)

Photo: Robert Langridge

Photo: Robert Langridge

Photo: Julian Thomson
Kekerengu Fault

Papatea fault
Active fault trace AFDB
+ NIWA
2016 Surface rupture
2012 NSHM fault source
 Trench 1

Trench 1, as of Nov 20, 2016 (looking NE)

Photo: Tim Little Drone Photo Courtesy Julian Thomson, GNS
 Coastal (Photo: Pilar Villamor)

uplift
High tide

Seal snoozing in former subtidal zone Stranded crayfish

Low tide tide: subtidal kelp exposed

Photo: Pilar Villamor Photos: Kate Clark

Needles Fault
Fault rupture

Fault rupture

Source: NIWA

Papatea fault
Active fault trace AFDB
+ NIWA
2016 Surface rupture
2012 NSHM fault source
 Landslides

• Initial estimates of 80,000 - 100,000

landslides triggered
• ~5 >1,000,000 m3

• Identified ~50 landslide dams

 Association with huge landslides close
to the coast

Photo: Robert Langridge/Julie Rowland

Seaward Landslide
(previously known as “cow
island” or “stranded cow”
landslide)
Photo: Robert Langridge/Julie Rowland
Conclusions
• Ranking of Otago campuses in order of decreasing earthquake hazard:
1=Wellington, 2=Christchurch, 3=Dunedin, 4=Auckland/Invercargill

• Tentative earthquake risk ranking: 1=Wellington, 2=Dunedin or Auckland,

3=Christchurch, 4=Invercargill

• Kaikoura earthquake was a complex event that ruptured multiple faults;

some fully, and some partially

• Kaikoura earthquake will challenge our modelling of future earthquake

hazard
Acknowledgments
• The landowners for generously allowing us to undertake the reconnaissance
work during difficult times

• GeoNet, EQC, GNS Science and LINZ for essential data

• Images and funding from GNS Science, University of Otago, University of

Canterbury, University of Auckland, Victoria University of Wellington, NIWA,
University of Southern California, Humboldt State University, and PG&E.