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Module 8 : FORECASTING
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Forecasting is essential for a number of planning decisions
LONG TERM DECISIONS
New Product Introduction
Plant Expansion
MEDIUM TERM DECISIONS
Aggregate Production Planning
Manpower Planning
Inventory Policy
SHORT TERM DECISIONS
Production planning
Scheduling of job orders
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PLANNING PROCESS
A Forecast of Demand is an essential Input for Planning
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METHODS OF FORECASTING
(a) Subjective or intuitive methods
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Opinion polls, interviews
DELPHI
(b) Methods based on averaging of past data
Moving averages
Exponential Smoothing
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METHODS OF FORECASTING
(c) Regression models on historical data
Trend extrapolation
(d) Causal or econometric models
(e) Time series analysis using stochastic models
Box Jenkins model
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FORECASTING PREDICTION
Objective Subjective
Scientific Intuitive
Free from ‘BIAS’ Individual BIAS
Reproducible Non Reproducible
Error Analysis Possible Error Analysis Limited
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COMMONLY OBSERVED “NORMAL” DEMAND PATTERNS
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ABNORMAL DEMAND PATTERNS
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OPINION POLLS
Personal interviews e.g. aggregation of opinion of sales representatives to obtain
sales forecast of a region
Knowledge base (experience) Subjective bias
Questionnaire method
questionnaire design
choice of respondents
obtaining respondents
analysis and presentation of results (forecasting)
Telephonic conversation
Fast
DELPHI
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DELPHI
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A structured method of obtaining responses from experts.
Utilizes the vast knowledge base of experts
Eliminates subjective bias and ‘influencing’ by members through
anonymity
Iterative in character with statistical summary at end of each round
(Generally 3 rounds)
Consensus (or Divergent Viewpoints) usually emerge at the end of the
exercise.
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DELPHI
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DELPHI
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DELPHI
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MOVING AVERAGES
Month Demand 3 months MA 6 months MA
JAN 199
FEB 202
MAR 199 200.00
APR 208 203.00
MAY 212 206.33
JUN 194 203.66 202.33
JUL 214 205.66 207.83
AUG 220 208.33 210.83
SEP 219 216.66 213.13
OCT 234 223.33 217.46
NOV 219 223.00 218.63
DEC 233 227.66 225.13
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MOVING AVERAGES
K PERIOD MA = AVERAGE OF K MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS
For instance :
3 PERIOD MA FOR MAY
= Demands of Mar, Apr, May / 3
= (199 + 208 + 121) / 3 = 206.33
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CHARACTERISTICS OF MOVING AVERAGES
1) MOVING AVERAGES LAG A TREND
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CHARACTERISTICS OF MOVING AVERAGES
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2) MOVING AVERAGES ARE OUT OF PHASE FOR CYCLIC DEMAND
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CHARACTERISTICS OF MOVING AVERAGES
3) MOVING AVERAGES FLATTEN PEAKS
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EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
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EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
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MOVING AVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
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Common Regression Functions
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Parameters Determined by Minimizing the Sum of Squares of errors .
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CAUSAL MODELS
Here demand is related to
Causal variables :
GNP
Per Capita income
Consumer Price index
....
Demand for tyres = f (Production of new automobiles, Replacements by existing
autos, Govt policy on automobiles, ...)
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could be a simplified causal model
(Here parameters are estimated by regression from data)
For a Causal Model to be Useful
The causal variables should be
Leading
Highly correlated with the variable of interest
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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Time series decomposed into
Trend
Seasonality
Cycle
Randomness
And Forecast generated from these components
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Stochastic modelling ( Box and Jenkins)
Various processes like :
Autoregressive (AR) order p
Moving average (MA) order q
ARMA order (p,q)
ARIMA order (p,d,q)
are used to fit the most appropriate model.These models are accurate (for short
term demand forecasting) but highly cumbersome to develop.
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Forecasting System
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Moving Range Chart to Control Forecasts
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SUMMARY
Importance of forecasting in planning
Various Methods of forecasting
Subjective methods like opinion polls & Delphi
Moving Averages & Exponential Smoothing
Trend extrapolation by regression
Causal models
Time series decomposition
Forecast Control
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