Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 13

Environmental Policy and Governance

Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)


Published online in Wiley Online Library
(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/eet.1598

Synergies or Trade-offs? A New Method to Quantify


Synergy Between Different Dimensions
of Sustainability
Jyrki Luukkanen,* Jarmo Vehmas, Juha Panula-Ontto, Francesca Allievi, Jari Kaivo-oja,
Tytti Pasanen and Burkhard Auffermann
Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Tampere, Finland

ABSTRACT
This paper presents a new assessment tool developed for the analysis of synergies and trade-
offs between selected development trends. We suggest new quantitative measures for the
concepts of synergy, trade-off and delinking. The tool is developed to analyse the synergy
between two different trends, but it can be used to analyse simultaneously the synergy between
three trends representing the three different dimensions of sustainable development. The use
of the tool is demonstrated with several examples from European Union countries. Copyright
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment

Received 18 November 2011; revised 31 March 2012; accepted 7 May 2012


Keywords: delinking; European Union; evaluation; sustainable development; synergy measurement; trade-off

Introduction

HIS PAPER PRESENTS A NEW ASSESSMENT TOOL DEVELOPED FOR THE ANALYSIS OF SYNERGIES AND TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN

T selected development trends. We suggest new quantitative measures for the concepts of synergy, trade-off
and delinking. The tool is developed to analyse the synergy between two different trends, but it can equally
be used to analyse simultaneously the synergies between three trends representing the three different
dimensions of sustainable development.
The article is in response to the need to provide quantitative estimates for the concepts of synergy and trade-off, which
are central in policy planning and implementation. The concepts of synergy and win–win strategies have been widely
discussed in, for example, the fields of economic growth, well-being and social policy (see Andor et al., 2011), European
policies (see European Policies and Politics, 2011), work (Guillen and Dahl, 2009), regional strategies (Alfonsi, 2011),
community strategy for rural development (see European Council, 2006), EU Eastern policy (see Duleba and Bilcík,
2010), Baltic Sea plans (see Lindholm, 2010), migration (Koeb and Hohmeister, 2010), human development (UNDP,
2011), environment and poverty (see Netherlands Commission, 2012), the synergy between China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
and Europe’s 2020 Strategy (Zhe, 2011), poverty and tropical forests (see Wunder, 2001), climate policy (see Hanh et al.,
2003; Commission Communication, 2005; Chhatre and Agrawal, 2009) and land use (see Cowie et al., 2010). Thus, the
concept of synergy is seen to be a useful theoretical concept in many fields of social and natural sciences.

*Correspondence to: Jyrki Luukkanen, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku, Pinninkatu 47, 33100 Tampere, Finland. E-mail: jyrki.
luukkanen@utu.fi

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment
338 J. Luukkanen et al.

In the field of sustainable development policy planning, synergies are often described with the concept of win–
win strategies or winning strategies (see, for example, UNDP, 2011, Chapter 4 - Positive synergies—winning strat-
egies for the environment, equity and human development). For example, the EU 2020 strategy needs to ensure full
recovery from the current economic crisis and allows the transition to a renewed growth model which fosters the
synergies between the economic, social and environmental dimensions (Notre Europe, 2012).
The concept of synergy has been used in several disciplines. Corning (1998) discusses synergy in the fields of
quantum physics, physics, thermodynamics, biophysics, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, developmental
biology, neurobiology, ecology, behavioural biology and anthropology, but recognizes that it is mostly used in such
“hard sciences” such as endocrinology, neurochemistry and pharmacology. For instance in epidemiology the
concept of a synergy index is used to indicate the relationship of joint effects from any two exposures compared with
the effects of single exposures (Li and Chambless, 2007).
One online dictionary defines synergy as: (1) the interaction of two or more agents or forces so that their
combined effect is greater than the sum of their individual effects, and (2) cooperative interaction among groups,
especially among the acquired subsidiaries or merged parts of a corporation, that creates an enhanced combined
effect. In systems theory synergy is defined as behaviour of whole systems that is unpredicted by the behaviour
of their parts taken separately.
According to a business definition synergy is an increase in the value of assets as a result of their combination
(http://business.yourdictionary.com/synergy). In this field synergy emerged as a key concept in efforts to conquer
business cycles. It was hoped that by building multi-industry conglomerates, companies could create synergies that
would result in constantly rising earnings through all economic cycles. The term was later used to describe the
gains in revenues or cost savings arising from takeovers or mergers, gains stemming from, for example, reduced
marketing costs and a need for fewer employees (Linner, 2006).
A concept related to synergy is statistical interaction. Interaction can be specified in several ways, according to the
statistical model under study. The conventional definition of interaction states simply that it is the product of two
independent variables Xi and Xj, i.e. XiXj (Southwood, 1978). This is often accompanied by a coefficient to denote
the sign and the extent of the interaction. Furthermore, the statistical significance of an interaction can be tested.
The term synergy, as applied in the method described in this article, refers to an interaction that is mathemati-
cally defined in this conventional way, although there is as yet no statistical test provided to test its significance.
Instead, synergy ranges from 1 to 1, enabling the comparisons of intensities between the different combinations
of variables. As a result, the method provided here is more explorative than a strictly statistical tool.
The synergy measure defined here is different from the concept of correlation. The familiar measure of dependence
between two quantities used in statistics is the Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient, called usually
“Pearson’s correlation”. It is obtained by dividing the covariance of the two variables by the product of their standard
deviations The correlation reflects the noisiness and direction of a linear relationship, but not the slope of that relation-
ship, nor many aspects of non-linear relationships. In the case where the variance of either X or Y is zero, the slope
between two variables is zero and the correlation coefficient is undefined as are many aspects of non-linear relationships.
Synergy can also be compared to the concept of elasticity. The latter is mainly used in the field of economics with
respect to different categories, such as price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of demand and cross price
elasticity of demand. Elasticity is a measure of responsiveness of behaviour measured by variable X to a change
in environment variable Y. In the field of economics elasticity is often connected to changes in prices and quantities
as well as changes is market supply and demand (e.g. Gillespie, 2007). Elasticity measures the percentage change in
demand (or supply) caused by a percentage change in price or income, etc. The concept of elasticity is different from
the concept of synergy determined here. Elasticity can have values from zero to infinity while synergy can vary
between 1 and +1 (see Figure 1).
The study of synergies and trade-offs conducted here builds on previous work carried out by our research team and
its Advanced Sustainability Analysis (ASA) approach (see Kaivo-oja et al., 2001a,b; Kaivo-oja and Luukkanen, 2002,
2004; Hoffren et al., 2001; Luukkanen and Kaivo-oja, 2002a,b, 2003, 2005; Tapio et al., 2007; Vehmas et al., 2007).
Here we use indicators to analyse different dimensions of sustainable development [e.g. gross domestic product
(GDP), CO2, employment, poverty and income distribution] as examples to illustrate the methodology.
To explore the synergies and trade-offs between different trends we need to provide definitions for the terms. We
can say that there is synergy between two factors when their combined effect is greater (or smaller) than the sum of

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
Quantifying Synergy Between Different Dimensions of Sustainability 339

Relationship between synergy and


Synergy elasticity
2

-1

-2
0 1 2 3 4 5
Elasticity

Figure 1. Relationship between elasticity and synergy

their separate effects. Trade-off can be defined as a balance achieved between two desirable but incompatible
features or as a situation where the selection of one feature results in the loss of another feature. In addition to
synergy and trade-off, delinking can describe the situation between the variables and in this case the increase or
decrease of one variable does not have an effect on the other variable. The mathematical definitions of synergy,
trade-off and delinking are given in the next section.
Two different kinds of analysis are carried out. First, we determine whether there is synergy, trade-off or delinking
between two trends under investigation. Secondly, we determine the same for three trends simultaneously in order to
include the different dimensions of sustainable development in the same analytical framework. Ideally the trends
investigated represent different dimensions of sustainable development, although synergies and trade-offs within
any of the dimensions can be equally interesting.

Materials and Methods

It can be said that there exists synergy between two factors when their combined effect is greater or smaller than the
sum of their separate effects. In mathematical form this can be expressed as:

z ¼ ax þ by þ cxy þ d
where x, y and z are variables and a, b, c and d are coefficients that determine how the output z depends on inputs x
and y. In this case we assume a time-invariant system, where the parameters remain constant. If y is 0, the output is
determined by x and the coefficients a and d. Coefficients a, b and d determine the impact of the single inputs on the
output. The synergy of the inputs x and y is determined by the component cxy, i.e. the co-effect of both the inputs.
The idea of synergy indicates choosing variables x and y such that an increase in the value of both variables x and y is
desirable and refers to a commonly accepted direction of sustainable development.
If we look at a change from A to B in the Figure 1 (from the original state x0y0 to x1y1) we can determine the
change in the area (Δz) to be

Δz ¼ aΔx þ bΔy þ cΔxΔy ¼ y0 Δx þ x0 Δy þ ΔxΔy:

We can interpret the synergy of the inputs to be determined by the shaded area in Figure 2, which equals ΔxΔy.
The synergy can also be negative, as is shown in the Figure 3 where the change in y is negative and ΔxΔy becomes
negative. This is a trade-off situation: when one factor increases the other factor decreases.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
340 J. Luukkanen et al.

B
y1
Δy
y0
A

z0

x0 Δx x1 x

Figure 2. Synergy between two variables x and y determined by their changes ΔxΔy

A
y0
y
y1
B
z0

x0 x x1 x
Figure 3. Negative synergy or trade-off between x and y in the case where Δy is negative

Figure 4 shows a case where synergy equals 0 in a case where Δy is 0. This is a delinking situation between the
variables: the change in one variable does not impact the other variable.
This type of calculation of synergy (or trade-off) does not imply a causal relationship between the variables. The
calculation results indicate only possible (potential) causality.
Maximum synergy can be obtained when relative changes Δx and Δy are equal (x0 and y0 are first normalized, i.e.
the initial year values are normalized to 1 or 100). This means that synergy between two variables can be measured
in the scale 1 . . . +1 as
Δx

Δy

A
y0 = y1 B
Δy =0

z0

x0 Δx x1 x
Figure 4. Synergy between x and y equals 0, which is a delinking situation

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
Quantifying Synergy Between Different Dimensions of Sustainability 341

where Δy is in this case the larger change. If Δy is smaller than Δx the quotient must be inverted. The synergy can be
also measured geometrically by the ratio of the area of the real change (ΔxΔy) to the area of the maximum
change, i.e. the ratio of the area of rectangular ABEF to the area of ABCD in Figure 5.
Synergy between three variables can be calculated in a similar way. In Figure 6 the synergy can be calculated as a
ratio of the volume of the cube ΔxΔyΔz (A0 B0 C0 D0 E0 F0 G0 ) to the volume of the maximum cube ABCDEFG, where the
changes in x, y and z would be equal.
In the three-dimensional case the sign of the synergy indicator depends on the signs of the pairwise comparisons. If
all the pairwise synergies are of the same sign (positive or negative) the three-dimensional synergy is positive. If one of
the pairwise synergies is of different sign the three-dimensional synergy is negative.
To make the interpretation of the three-dimensional calculation results easier we have modified the data so that the
positive direction of change of the indicator is connected to positive development in relation to sustainability. This is
why we do not use, for example, CO2 emissions as an indicator but the reduction of CO2 emissions from the base year
of analysis (e.g. Kyoto base year 1990). Analogously, we use employment as an indicator and not unemployment.
To illustrate the synergy calculations we use some examples from the European Union (EU). GDP, population
and CO2 emission data for the case studies were taken from the International Energy Agency (IEA), employment
data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) and World Bank, and at-risk-of poverty, inequality of income
distribution and household saving rate data from Eurostat. It was decided to use data from Eurostat for two main

D C

F E

A B
Figure 5. Measuring synergy as a ratio of the area ABEF to the maximum areas ABCD (max ΔxΔy)

y
E

F E’ D

F’ H z
D’
H’
Δy
G
Δz
G’

A C
A’ C’
Δx

B’ B

x
Figure 6. Determination of the synergy between three variables

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
342 J. Luukkanen et al.

reasons: (1) the coherence of data among different countries and data availability for the EU area and (2) to test the
applicability of the Eurostat sustainable indicator data set in sustainability analysis with the aid of the new method.
All the calculations were done for selected EU countries because of good data availability and to illustrate the
possibilities of the developed method.

Results
The synergy calculations are presented for a group of EU countries to indicate the possibilities of the framework of
analysis for comparative purposes. The selection of the cases was based on two main points of departure: (1) the
availability of sufficiently long time series and comparatively reliant data of different dimensions of sustainable
development and (2) adequate differences in the countries compared to better illustrate the developed methodology.
Figure 7 shows the change in GDP and CO2 emissions reduction in EU15 countries from 1990 to 2009. The data
have been normalized to 100 in the year 1990. GDP increased by about 38% over this period while CO2 emissions
decreased by more than 5%. As the decrease in CO2 emissions is seen to improve the rather than instead of
emissions. Figure 7 indicates that there has been synergy between CO2 reductions and GDP during this time period
because both of the indicators have been increasing.
To analyse changes over a longer time period we have carried out synergy calculations for CO2 emission reductions
and GDP in EU15 countries with 1960 as the base year. Figure 8 illustrates the results. In the 1960s and 1970s CO2
emissions increased hand in hand with economic growth and thus the synergy calculation for emission reductions
and GDP has values close to 1. There has been considerable development towards delinking the emissions and
economic growth.
Figures 9–12 illustrate results from synergy calculations in four EU Member States, namely Greece, Germany,
the UK and Italy. These figures include the possible synergy calculations based on three variables describing the
different dimensions of sustainable development, i.e. GDP (GDP, economic dimension), employment (EMP, social
dimension) and CO2 emissions reduction (CO2, environmental dimension). In Greece, a positive synergy can be
found for one pair of variables only (between GDP and employment), while in Germany a positive synergy exists
in all pairwise comparisons and between all three variables. This difference reflects the diverging development in
CO2 emissions in these countries. In Greece, CO2 emissions have not decreased but increased over the whole
period, due to the country’s relatively traditional industrial development and without significant changes in the
energy mix, which is largely based on the use of fossil fuels. In Germany the situation is different. Both the indus-
trial structure and energy mix have been changing and CO2 emissions have decreased due to a switch to a lighter

EU15: CO2 reduction vs GDP


CO2 reduction 1990-2009
110

2009
105

1990
100

95

90
90 100 110 120 130 140
GDP

Figure 7. Changes in CO2 emission reductions and GDP in EU15 countries from 1990 to 2009 (normalized to 100 in the year 1990)

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
Quantifying Synergy Between Different Dimensions of Sustainability 343

Synergy of CO2 reduction vs. GDP in EU15


0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1

Figure 8. Synergy between CO2 emission reductions and GDP in EU15 countries for 1965–2009

Greece
1.0

0.8

GDP vs CO2 reduction


0.6

0.4 Employed people vs CO2


reduction
0.2
Employed people vs GDP
0.0
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
Three - variable synergy
-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

Figure 9. Synergies of variable pairs and three-variable synergy for Greece. Base year for synergy calculation 1990

Germany
1.0

0.8

0.6 GDP vs CO2 reduction

0.4 Employed people vs CO2


reduction
0.2
Employed people vs GDP
0.0
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Three - variable synergy


-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

Figure 10. Synergies of variable pairs and three-variable synergy for Germany. Base year for synergy calculation 1990

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
344 J. Luukkanen et al.

Figure 11. Synergies of variable pairs and three-variable synergy for the UK. Base year for synergy calculation 1990

Figure 12. Synergies of variable pairs and three-variable synergy for Italy. Base year for synergy calculation 1990

industrial structure and less CO2-intensive energy sources. Reducing CO2 emissions has also been a clear target in
German energy and environmental policy.
In the UK the synergies between the three trends have been positive since the late 1990s. The results from the UK
can be partly explained as for Germany: the late 1990s and the first decade of the new Millennium show an increase of
economic performance in terms of GDP, an increased employment, and at the same time a clear reduction of CO2
emissions. The reduction in CO2 emissions has been mainly due to the continuation of economic structural change
and – together with the reduction of traditional industrial sectors – the continuous emergence of a post-industrial
service economy. In addition, the shift to the use of more natural gas instead of coal has helped decrease emissions.
The result from Italy resembles the result from Greece and the synergy value is negative. It is higher than in
Greece as it reflects a smaller trade-off between the years 1997 and 2003. In 2001–2002 the situation in Italy is close
to delinking.
Figure 13 presents the comparative results of the three-dimensional synergy calculation for Greece, Germany,
Italy and the UK by using the same variables as above (GDP, employment and CO2 reductions). The comparison
shows that the three-variable synergy results from the UK are rather similar to the results from Germany, but the
synergy value is lower during the whole period investigated (except in 2004). The result from Italy resembles that
from Greece and the synergy value is negative. It is higher than in Greece as it reflects a smaller trade-off between
the years 1997 and 2003. In 2001–2002 the situation in Italy is close to delinking. The result from the UK can be
explained partly by the same reasons as for Germany, but there are also differences.
To illustrate differences between European countries we have analysed the synergy/trade-off between per-
capita GDP and household saving rate. These results are shown in Figure 14 for a group of EU countries.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
Quantifying Synergy Between Different Dimensions of Sustainability 345

Employed people vs CO2 reduction vs GDP


1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4 United Kingdom

0.2 Germany

0.0 Greece
1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009
Italy
-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

Figure 13. Three-variable synergy of employment, CO2 reduction from 1990 and real GDP. Comparison of UK, Germany, Greece
and Italy

GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards VS household saving rate


1
0.8
0.6 Finland
0.4 Italy
0.2 Spain
0 Romania
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

-0.2
United Kingdom
-0.4
Netherlands
-0.6
-0.8
-1

average synergy
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Romania
Spain
Italy
Finland

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Figure 14. Synergies of household saving rate and per-capita GDP in selected EU countries

It clearly shows the differences in national circumstances and policies. Italy shows the highest and most
constant synergy between the selected variables of household savings and GDP. This means that increases in
GDP are reflected in savings rate, indicating constant consumption behaviour. This is in contrast to the results
for the same indicators in Finland, Spain, the UK and the Netherlands, where the situation is very close to complete
delinking for each of these countries. The reasons for this can be linked to cultural differences: while it is common
in Italy to save more as soon as there is a greater amount of money available, such behaviour is probably different in
other EU countries.
In the case of Romania, it is possible to see how the data reveal a situation that is very close to a trade-off: it can be
assumed that this is due, at least partly, to an inequality of income distribution, which, as described further below, is
quite high for Romania for the investigated period.
Figure 15 shows the synergy between per-capita GDP and at-risk-of-poverty rate. The declining GDP in Italy does not
appear to be synergetic with poverty, but in fact the opposite: GDP decreased by some 15% during the period examined

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
346 J. Luukkanen et al.

GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards VS at-risk-of poverty

1
0.8
0.6 Finland
0.4 Italy
0.2 Spain
0 1997 Romania

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006
-0.2 United Kingdom
-0.4
Netherlands
-0.6
-0.8
-1

average synergy
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Romania
Spain
Italy
Finland

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Figure 15. Synergies of GDP and at-risk-of-poverty rates in selected EU countries

time, while at the same time at-risk-of-poverty rates remained steady. In Romania an increase in per-capita GDP shows
high synergy with at-risk-of-poverty rate and, as pointed out for Figure 14, this is linked to the inequality in income
distribution. In Finland per-capita GDP and risk of poverty seem to be totally delinked, reflecting the Nordic welfare
state policy, where social policy takes care of the poorer population and changes in GDP do not impact their situation
(see Nordic Council, 2011).
The synergy between GDP and inequality of income is examined in Figure 16. The situation appears to be steady
in Finland, where a constant delinking throughout the period is seen. This can again be interpreted to be the result
of the Nordic welfare state policy, which delinks GDP and income inequality (see Nordic Council, 2011).
The slightly rising synergy trend of the UK (especially in the late 1990s) indicates that increasing GDP has started to
be related to increasing inequality of income distribution. This can be interpreted to be a result of less emphasis on
traditional Labour welfare politics. The results for the Netherlands present a rather low average synergy (about 0.3)
so it would appear that a weak relationship exists also in this case.

GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards VS inequality of income


distribution
1
0.8
0.6
Finland
0.4
Italy
0.2
0 Spain
1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

-0.2 Romania

-0.4 United Kingdom

-0.6 Netherlands

-0.8
-1

average synergy
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Romania
Spain
Italy
Finland

-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Figure 16. Synergies of GDP and inequality of income distribution

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
Quantifying Synergy Between Different Dimensions of Sustainability 347

The results for Spain and Italy indicate a trade-off between GDP and inequality in income distribution. In Italy,
decreasing GDP has caused an increase in inequality, especially during the early 2000s. For Spain the trade-off has
been a prevalent phenomenon for the whole 10-year examination period.
Figure 16 shows quite different results for Romania, for which synergy is present for the whole period, with an
increase in the last 5 years and an average value of more than 0.8. Note also that in Romania the inequality of
income distribution rises sharply toward the end of the investigated period, even if the average for the same
indicator during the whole period is not much higher than that of the other countries considered.
In Romania the synergy between the selected indicators may be so strong because the economic structure of the
country is still developing and newly generated wealth is distributed unevenly among the population: this raises an
interesting point regarding the social policies of the country and the future development of this trend should be
monitored closely. The fact that a synergy exists between an increasing GDP and an increasing inequality in income
distribution gives insight into the economic situation of the country and points to the need for measures to avoid an
ever growing rate of people at risk of poverty.

Conclusions
This study introduces a new method that can be applied to the analysis of potential synergies and trade-offs
between different unsustainable trends. We have used this new approach to determine whether there is synergy
or trade-off between different trends by calculating the ratio between changes in these trends. This type of quanti-
tative synergy analysis has not been carried out before in the field of social sciences, whereas in epidemiology, for
example, the concept of a synergy index has been used to indicate the relationship of joint effects of two exposures.
In the social sciences it is, however, very difficult to apply the exposure approach using different policy measures, at
least with the sample sizes necessary to ensure statistical reliability. This is why the developed method calculates
the potential synergy between the actualized trends describing development patterns in different dimensions of
sustainable development.
Interpretation of the results is straightforward: the closer the calculated synergy factor is to 1 the stronger the
synergy between the two (or three) variables can potentially be, and the closer the ratio is to 1 the potential for a
trade-off is stronger. When the synergy factor is close to 0 there is delinking between the trends. This kind of
analysis does not imply that synergy is necessarily good and trade-off is bad, or vice versa. Such interpretation is case
specific; to interpret the results in more depth, we need to determine how we would like the trends to involve. For
example, if we consider per-capita GDP and per-capita CO2 and find no synergy between the two, this can be
interpreted to be a positive situation as increasing per-capita GDP does not increase per-capita CO2. This means that
a trade-off between per-capita GDP and per-capita CO2 is a desirable situation. To make the comparisons easier in
three dimensions we have modified the indicators so that the increase in CO2 reductions indicates development
towards sustainability.
Based on the results of our study we can conclude that the results of potential synergies and trade-offs between
different dimensions of sustainable development and between different unsustainable trends are highly case
specific. It is not possible to draw generalized policy recommendations based on the results, but every case has to be
analysed separately. The developed tool could be seen as a policy evaluation tool, which makes it possible to carry out
comparative analyses between different countries or different thematic areas. One of the main strengths of the tool
is the ability to analyse the three different dimensions of sustainable development simultaneously and to see whether
the applied policies have resulted in synergetic development in the different dimensions of sustainability. The synergy
evaluation tool can be used in the large policy programme evaluation, for example in the EU’s Environmental Agency or
in the United Nations sustainability planning and programmes. For example, the Millennium Development Goals
strategy could be evaluated by this kind of synergy evaluation tool. However, it must be remembered that the developed
tool does not provide a simple answer for policy comparisons as the development outcomes are dependent on
numerous interrelating factors and no single indicator can capture all the information. The presented synergy method
should be understood as the first step in identifying interesting phenomena that should be analysed in more detail
with other methods.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
348 J. Luukkanen et al.

Sustainability planning is a multi-dimensional process which normally requires integration of plans made under
different sectoral planning organisations. The task is then to try to formulate a coherent sustainability plan that takes
into account the different development trends in different thematic fields and tries to utilize potential synergies
between them as well as to avoid potential trade-offs. Planning combines forecasting of developments with the
preparation of scenarios of how to react to them. From this perspective, for policy-makers, reliable knowledge about
the synergies of trends is an important starting point for policy programming and planning.
Development of the new methodology for quantitative synergy measurement has been in response to the needs
of sustainability policy planning. This type of tool can be used to compare countries with different policy approaches
and assessment of the policy results as a function of the potential synergies or trade-offs between the development
trends. As the tool does not provide explanatory details of the causes of differences in the development trends,
further analysis will be required to reveal the detailed case-specific drivers behind the trends.

Acknowledgements
This work has been carried out within EU FP6 project 044428 “Development and comparison of sustainability indicators”
(DECOIN), EU FP7 project 217213 “Synergies in multi-scale eco-social systems” (SMILE) and the Academy of Finland project
“Land use: Synergies and trade-offs between energy and food production?”. Financial support from the European Commission
and the Academy of Finland is kindly acknowledged.

References
Alfonsi F. 2011. Working Document on the evolution of EU macro-regional strategies: present practice and future prospects, especially in the
Mediterranean. Committee on Regional Development. 21.10.2011. European Parliament. PE474.079v01-00.
Andor L, Arnaudova A, Berès P, Birkavs V, Dhéret C, Götz G, Hemerijck A, Hubert A, Larsson A, Martens H, McCartney C, McLoughlin S,
Molino E, Parent A-S, Pascouau Y, Saraceno C, Wong W, Zuleeg F. 2011. Growth, well-being and social policy in Europe: trade-off or
synergy. Challenge Europe. Issue 21. European Policy Centre. Foreword by José Manuel Barroso.
Chhatre A, Agrawal A. 2009. Trade-offs and synergies between carbon storage and livelihood benefits from forest commons. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences 106: 17667–17670.
Commission Communication of 9 February 2005. Winning the battle against global climate change. COM(2005) 35 - Official Journal C 125 of 21
May 2005.
Corning PA. 1998. The synergism hypothesis. On the concept of synergy and it’s role in the evolution of complex systems. Journal of Social and
Evolutionary Systems 21(2): 133–172.
Cowie A, Schneider U, Montanarella L. 2010. Potential synergies between existing multilateral environmental agreements in the implementation
of land use, land-use change and forestry activities. Environmental Science & Policy 10: 335–352.
Duleba A, Bilcík V. 2010. Toward a Strategic Regional Framework for the EU Eastern Policy. Searching for Synergies between the Eastern Partnership and
the Partnership for Modernization with Russia. A Policy Paper. Research Center of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association. Devin Printing House:
Bratislava.
European Council. 2006. Council Decision of 20 February 2006, on Community strategic guidelines for rural development (programming pe-
riod 2007 to 2013), (2006/144/EC), Official Journal of the European Union, 25.2.2006, L 55/20.
European Policies and Politics. 2011. EC “Budget for Europe 2020” – Employment and Social affairs. Archive for Employment and Social affairs.
29 June 2011. http://www.policies.eu.org/?cat=32
Gillespie A. 2007. Foundations of Economics. Oxford University Press: Oxford.
Guillén A, Dahl S-Å. 2009. Quality of Work in the European Union: Concept, Data and Debates from a Transnational Perspective. Peter Lang: Bruxelles.
Hanh HD, Michaelowa A, Tuan DD. 2003. Synergy of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the context of sustainable development: the case of
Vietnam. Climate Policy 3: S81–S96.
Hoffrén J, Luukkanen J, Kaivo-oja J. 2001. Decomposition analysis of Finnish material flows: 1960–1996. Journal of Industrial Ecology 4(4): 105–125.
Kaivo-oja J, Luukkanen J. 2002. Energy and CO2 efficiency dynamics in the world regions. International Journal of Global Energy Issues 18(2/3/4):
274–293.
Kaivo-oja J, Luukkanen J. 2004. The European Union balancing between CO2 reduction commitments and growth policies. Energy Policy 32:
1511–1530.
Kaivo-oja J, Luukkanen J, Malaska P. 2001a. Advanced sustainability analysis. In Our Fragile World. Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable
Development. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems and Sustainable Development, Vol 2, Tolba MK (ed.). EOLSS Publishers Co. Ltd: Oxford;
1529–1552.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet
Quantifying Synergy Between Different Dimensions of Sustainability 349

Kaivo-oja J, Luukkanen J, Malaska P. 2001b. Sustainability evaluation frameworks and alternative analytical scenarios of national economies.
Population and Environment. A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 23(2): 193–215.
Koeb E, Hohmeister H. 2010. The revision of Article 13 on Migration of the Cotonou Partnership Agreement. What’s at stake for the ACP?
European Centre for Development Policy Management.
Li R, Chambless L. 2007. Test for additive interaction in proportional hazards models. Annals of Epidemiology 17: 227–236.
Lindholm G. 2010. Synergies in implementing the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region. Promemoria
2010-03-01. Ministry of the Environment. Ambassador for Marine Environment. Gabriella Lindholm. http://www.helcom.fi/stc/files/
BSAP/5StakeholderConf_Lindholm.pdf
Linner B-O. 2006. Authority through synergism: the roles of climate change linkages. European Environment 16: 278–289. DOI: 10.1002/eet.423
Luukkanen J, Kaivo-oja J. 2002a. Comparison of Nordic energy and CO2 efficiency dynamics in the years 1960–1997. Energy the International
Journal 27(2): 135–150.
Luukkanen J, Kaivo-oja J. 2002b. ASEAN tigers and sustainability of energy use: decomposition analysis of energy and CO2 efficiency dynamics.
Energy Policy 30(4): 281–292.
Luukkanen J, Kaivo-oja J. 2003. G-7 countries on the way to sustainable energy systems? International Journal of Global Energy Issues 20(1): 58–74.
Luukkanen J, Kaivo-oja J. 2005. The European Union balancing between CO2 reduction commitments and growth policies. Energy Policy 32: 1511–1530.
Netherlands Commission for Environmental Impact Assessment. 2012. Strategic Environmental Assessment and Poverty Reduction Strategies.
http://www.environment-integration.eu/download/05-SEA/SEA&PovertyReductionStrategies.pdf
Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen. 2011. The welfare state in a Nordic perspective. Programme for the Norwegian Presidency of the Nordic
Council of Ministers 2012. http://www.norden.org/en/publications/publikationer/2011-726
Notre Europe. 2012. http://www.notre-europe.eu/en/axes/competition-cooperation-solidarity/projects/projet/europe-2020-1/
Southwood K. 1978. Substantive Theory and statistical interaction: five models. The American Journal of Sociology 83(5): 1154–1203.
Tapio P, Banister D, Luukkanen J, Vehmas J, Willamo R. 2007. Energy and transport in comparison. Immaterialisation, dematerialisation and
decarbonisation in the EU15 between 1970 and 2000. Energy Policy 35(1): 433–451.
UNDP. 2011. Human Development Report 2011. http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2011/download/en/
Vehmas J, Luukkanen J, Kaivo-oja J. 2007. Linking analyses and environmental Kuznets curves for aggregated material flows in the EU. Journal of
Cleaner Production 15(7): 1662–1673.
Wunder S. 2001. Poverty alleviation and tropical forests—what scope for synergies? World Development 29(11): 1817–1833.
Zhe S. 2011. Remarks by H.E. Ambassador Song Zhe at the Delegation for Relations with China of the European Parliament 2011/10/11. http://
www.chinamission.be/eng/sthd/t866425.htm.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment Env. Pol. Gov. 22, 337–349 (2012)
DOI: 10.1002/eet

Вам также может понравиться