Analysis of Chotukool Market

An assignment for
Managerial Statistics (ANT 5001)

by

FAS: L1

ANKITA BAJPAI – 19F208

ARJUN MALLYA – 19F211

KRISHNA SHARMA – 19F222

SHUBHAM JOSHI – 19F254

SNEHA PRADHAN – 19F255

Under the Guidance of

Prof. Ganes M. Pandya

T.A. PAI MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE

MANIPAL, INDIA

August 2019
Motivation
Godrej has introduced Chotukool – A compact refrigerator. For every product to be a success,
customer needs must be well understood and analysed. Thus, we conducted a survey of three
regions where we want to establish our business – urban, semi-urban and rural. An experiment was
conducted in this case to find out the success of Chotukool in all the 3 regions.

URBAN REGION – Availability of electricity is 24 hrs

SEMI URBAN REGION – Availability of electricity is 16 hrs

RURAL REGION – Availability of electricity is 12 hrs

We took a sample of total 300 people for our survey to find out the success of Chotukool in each
region. The data collected is present in Contingency Table

a) We conducted a survey in 3 regions, with a sample size of 300 each. What is the probability
of acceptance of Chotukool in urban area?
b) What is the cross-regional likeability of Chotukool?
c) Probability of Chotukool liked given that it belongs to region.
d) Given that chotukool is already liked, what is the probability it from rural region?

METHOD:

For solving first question we have used the concepts of Simple Probability. For solving second
question we have used Marginal and Joint Probability. For third question we have used Conditional
probability. We have created a contingency table for better data analysis. The results from one
question is used as an input to the subsequent questions. For solving Fourth question we have used
Bayes Theorem to get the result.

Contingency Table:

Not Grand
Row Labels Liked Liked Total
Rural 69 31 100
Semi-Urban 45 55 100
Urban 45 55 100
Grand Total 159 141 300

Events:

Experiment Event Name

Chotukool is liked in Rural Region A1
Chotukool is liked in Urban Region A2
Chotukool is liked in Semi-Urban Region A3
Out of total those who liked ChotuKool, how many belongs to Semi Urban Region A4
Out of total those who liked ChotuKool, how many belongs to Urban Region A5
ChotuKool Being liked in both Semi Urban AND Urban Region A6
ChotuKool Being liked in both Semi Urban OR Urban Region A7
Chotukool liked given that it belongs to Urban region A8
Chotukool liked given that it belongs to Semi Urban region A9
Chotukool liked given that it belongs to Rural region A10
Probabilities
a.) Simple Probability – Defined as “The probability of occurrence of a simple event”

In the given case –

1. Probability of Chotukool being liked in the Rural region=

(Number of People liked Chotukool in Rural Region)/(Total No. of people in Rural Region)
i.e P(A1) = 69 / 100 = 0.69

2. Probability of Chotukool being liked in the Semi Urban region=

(Number of People liked Chotukool in Semi Urban Region)/(Total No. of people in Semi
Urban Region)
i.e P(A2) = 45 / 100 = 0.45

3. Probability of Chotukool being liked in the Urban region=

(Number of People liked Chotukool in Urban Region)/(Total No. of people in Urban Region)
i.e P(A3) = 45 / 100 = 0.45

4. Probability of “Out of total those who liked ChotuKool, how many belongs to Semi Urban
Region” = (Number of People liked Chotukool belonging from Semi Urban Region)/(Total
number of people who liked Chotukool)
i.e P(A4) = 45 / 159
P(A4) = 0.283

5. Probability of “Out of total those who liked ChotuKool, how many belongs to Urban
Region” = (Number of People liked Chotukool belonging from Urban Region)/(Total
number of people who liked Chotukool)
i.e P(A5) = 45 / 159
P(A5) = 0.283

b.) Marginal and Joint Probability – Defined as “The probability of Two independent events
happening together”

In this case –
1. Probability of ChotuKool Being liked in both Semi Urban AND Urban Region =
Probability of Chotukool being liked in the Semi Urban region * Probability of Chotukool
being liked in the Urban region.
P(A6) = P(A2) * P(A3) = 0.45*0.45
P(A6) = 0.2025
2. Probability of ChotuKool Being liked in both Semi Urban OR Urban Region =
Probability of “Out of total those who liked ChotuKool, how many belongs to Semi Urban
Region” + Probability of “Out of total those who liked ChotuKool, how many belongs to
Urban Region”.
P(A7) = P(A5) + P(A6) = 0.283 + 0.283
P(A7) = 0.566
c.) Conditional Probability – Defined as “The Probability of one event given that other event
has already occurred”

In this Case –
1. Probability of Chotukool liked given that it belongs to Urban region = (Probability of
Chotukool liked and it belongs to Urban Region)/(Probability of Chotukool being liked)
P(A8) = (45/300) / (159/300)
= 0.15/0.53
= 0.283

2. Probability of Chotukool liked given that it belongs to Semi Urban region = (Probability of
Chotukool liked and it belongs to Semi Urban Region)/(Probability of Chotukool being
liked)
P(A9) = (45/300) / (159/300)
= 0.15/0.53
= 0.283

3. Probability of Chotukool liked given that it belongs to Rural region = (Probability of

Chotukool liked and it belongs to Rural Region)/(Probability of Chotukool being liked)
P(A10) = (69/300) / (159/300)
= 0.23/0.53
= 0.434

d.) Bayes’ Theorem – It follows the axioms of conditional probability.

B1 = Probability it is from rural region = 100/300 = 0.33

B2 = Probability it is from Semi Urban Region = 100/300 = 0.33

B3 = Probability it is from Urban Region = 100/300 = 0.33

C = Probability That chotukool is liked = 159/300 = 0.53

P(C/B1) = P(A10) = 0.434

P(C/B2) = P(A9) = 0.283

P(C/B3) = P(A8) = 0.283

Given that chotukool is already liked, what is the probability it from rural region =

Probability of it is from Rural Region AND is liked/ Probability that Chotukool is liked

P(B1) * P(C/B1)

P(B1/C) = -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

(P(B1) * P(C/B1)) + (P(B2) * P(C/B2)) + (P(B3) * P(C/B3))

 0.33 * 0.434

P(B1/C) = ---------------------------------------------------------------

(0.33 * 0.434) + (0.33 * 0.283) + (0.33 * 0.283)

P(B1/C) = 0.143/(0.143 + 0.0934 + 0.0934)

= 0.143/0.3298

= 0.433

Inference: From Conditional Probability we can infer that the probability of Chotukool being liked in
the Rural Region is greater than the other two regions in the survey. It has a 43% likeability in the
Rural region, which was expected as it was majorly designed for such markets. It also has a fair 28%
likeability in the Urban and Semi-Urban region which shows that the public has interest in the
product and with some refinements Chotukool can have a significant market presence in these
sectors too.

Among the various regions surveyed for the launch of Chotukool, we can infer from the data
extrapolated that it makes perfect sense for us to launch Chotukool in the Rural Region and given
the response from the other regions, we can launch a refined Chotukool Version 2.0 which can
target that markets as well.