Climate and Disaster Risk

Assessment (CDRA)
Overview

Ibani C. Padao
HLURB – Policy Development Group
TOPIC OUTLINE:

- Rationale and Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA

into the Local Planning Process
- Guiding Concepts and Frameworks of CDRA
- CDRA 5-Step Process
- Mainstreaming Framework of CDRA into the
CLUP Process
Guides for mainstreaming CCA-DRR into CLUP and ZO
and conducting the CDRA Process

Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Supplemental Guidelines on Mainstreaming

Reduction (Volume 2, CLUP Guidebook 2014, Climate and Disaster Risks in the Comprehensive
HLURB) Land Use Plan (Project Climate Twin Phoenix:
HLURB/Climate Change Commission/UNDP/AusAID)
 Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into CLUP
Better understand natural hazards and climate change and
how these would likely alter the development path of the
locality

Understand risks posed by natural hazards and climate

change on exposed areas, sectors and communities

Identify priority decision areas and development challenges

posed by climate change and natural hazards
 Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into CLUP

Determine realistic projections on demand and supply of

land

Incorporate spatial development goals, objectives and

targets to reduce risks and vulnerabilities

Make informed decisions to effectively address risks

and vulnerabilities
Purpose of Mainstreaming CDRA into CLUP

Identify appropriate risk reduction and climate

change adaptation and mitigation measures as
inputs to the comprehensive development planning
and investment programming
CDRA

CLUP LDRRMP

CDP LCCAP
Convergence of Climate Change Adaptation and
Disaster Risk Management

l s
ntia tion
te ec
Po onn
C
 Climate and
Disaster Risk
POPULATION

Assessment URBAN USE AREAS

u studying risks and

NATURAL-RESOURCE
vulnerabilities of exposed BASED PRODUCTION
elements associated with AREAS

natural hazards and climate

change. LIFELINE UTILITIES

CRITICAL POINT
FACILITIES
Cl i mat e and Di s as t er Ri s k As s es s ment

CLIMATE CHANGES
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

CLIMATE
Temperature HAZARDS
Rainfall
PROJECTION
Extreme Events
Sea Level Rise
FLOODING LANDSLIDES TSUNAM I

Forest POPULATION
CLIMATE LIFELINE
Agriculture URBAN USE
IMPACT UTILITIES
Coastal Area AREAS
CHAINS CRITICAL POINT
Urban Area NATURAL
RESOURCE-BASED FACILITIES
Conceptual Frameworks

- CLIMATE CHANGE
VULNERABILITY
ASSESSMENT (IPCC AR 4)

- DISASTER RISK
ASSESSMENT (UN)
AR 5 Conceptual Framework
 THE CDRA PROCESS
• Collect and Organize Climate Change and Hazard
Step 1 Information

• Scope the Potential Impacts of Hazards and Climate Change

Step 2

Step 3
• Develop Exposure Data Base

Step 4
• Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment

Step 5
• Summarize Findings
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information

14
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate
and hazard information

Local climate change scenario

The climate projections are available for each

region and province of the country. The
municipality or city, at first pass, may consider
the provincial data, and consult PAGASA on
the applicability.
§ Seasonal Temperature
§ Seasonal Rainfall
§ Frequency of Extreme Events
Climate Change Projections (Seasonal Mean Temperature)
Medium-range Emission
SEASON Scenario
2020 2050
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 0.9 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2

Warm months
becoming hotter
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate and
hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their characteristics
Rain-induced Landslide Climate Adjusted Flood Hazard Maps
Susceptibility Map (flood modelling)
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate and
hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their characteristics
Characterizing Hazard:

Spatial Extent - areas within the municipality/city and certain barangays that are likely
to be inundated or affected by a particular hazard;

Magnitude/Intensity - the estimated strength of the hazard that will impact an area
(i.e. Flood can be expressed in water depth, water flow velocity, and/or duration, storm
surge expressed in wave heights, earthquake ground shaking expressed as intensity
scale);

Frequency/Probability of occurrence - refers to the likelihood or the average

recurrence interval (expressed in years) that a hazard event may happen; chance of it
occurring per year (expressed in percentage)
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate and
hazard information
Inventory of hazards and their characteristics
Characterizing Hazard:

Duration – refers to how long the hazard will occur (expressed in minutes, days, weeks
etc.)

Predictability – refers to the ability of human systems/technologies to accurately

determine when a hazard might occur including its characteristics.

Speed of Onset – whether the occurrence of the hazard is slow/creeping (i.e. SLR,
Drought) or rapid/fast (Flashfloods, earthquakes, Landslides).
Step 1. Collect and analyze climate and
hazard information Historical disaster damage/loss data
No. of casualties No. of Affected No. of houses Damage to Properties Source
Observed of
Hazard Events and Affected Daily
Description Barangays Private/ Informat
Rainfall Dead Injured Missing Persons Families Totally Partially Infra Agri Inst. Comm l Total
ion

D e ce m b e r 2 6 ,, 1 9 9 3 : flo o d d u e to
D isaste r
Typ h o o n Pu rin g. A ffe cte d
A ll b aran gays 0 0 0 6 ,9 6 0 1 ,1 6 0 0 200 1 ,1 2 6 ,3 5 0 2 ,1 3 7 ,5 0 0 0 0 3 ,2 6 3 ,8 5 0 re p o rt
m ajo rity o f th e p o p u latio n .

B rgys. Pau tao ,

7 -Jan -0 2 : Flo o d d u e to h e avy rain . D u gsan go n , Pyap ag, D isaste r
1 0 0 N o d ata 634 0 0 N o d ata N o d ata 0 0 0
A ffe cte d five b aran gays. Po n gtu d an d re p o rt
C am b u ayo n
B rgys. Po b lacio n ,
D e ce m b e r 2 2 , 2 0 0 3 : flo o d d u e to C am p o , Pau tao ,
D isaste r
co n tin u o u s h e avy rain s. A ffe cte d C ab u gao , Payap ag, 0 0 0 775 155 0 5 1 ,0 7 9 ,0 0 0 1 ,6 4 6 ,2 5 0 0 0 2 ,7 2 5 ,2 5 0
re p o rt
7 b aran gays. D u gsan go an d
C am b u ayo n
B rgys. Po b lacio n ,
D e ce m b e r 2 3 , 2 0 0 5 : flo o d d u e to C am p o , Pau tao ,
D isaste r
co n tin u o u s h e avy rain . A ffe cte d 7 C ab u gao , Payap ag, 1 0 0 378 68 0 0 0 8 ,3 7 3 ,9 8 5 0 0 8 ,3 7 3 ,9 8 5
re p o rt
b aran gays. D u gsan go n ,an d Po n gt
ud
Jan . 1 0 -1 6 , 2 0 0 9 : flo o d d u e to
D isaste r
co n tin u o u s h e avy rain . A ffe cte d A ll b aran gays 0 0 0 N o D ata 433 0 41 3 ,0 5 0 ,0 0 0 1 ,1 9 7 ,1 3 5 0 0 4 ,2 4 7 ,1 3 5
re p o rt
all b aran gays
Jan .1 -3 , 2 0 1 1 : flo o d d u e to
D am age
co n tin u o u s h e avy rain . A ffe cte d A ll b aran gays 0 0 0 N o D ata N o D ata 0 0 4 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 4 8 3 ,0 0 0 0 0 4 ,4 8 3 ,0 0 0
R e p o rt
all b aran gays.
Jan . 2 4 -Fe b . 2 , 2 0 1 1 flo o d d u e to
2 ,0 3 7 / 2 5 6
co n tin u o u s h e avy rain . 2 5 6 D am age
A ll b aran gays 0 0 0 1 0 ,1 8 5 Evacu ate d 0 0 6 ,1 0 0 ,0 0 0 4 ,2 6 7 ,7 9 4 0 0 1 0 ,3 6 7 ,7 9 4
fam ilie s e vacu ate d to e vacu atio n R e p o rt
ce n te r. 20
Step
Based on the1.initial Collect and
data gathering of hazard maps,analyze climate
climate trends, climate change projectionsand and impact chains, prepare a climate change hazard
hazard information
inventory matrix in order to describe the possible susceptibilities of the municipality/city for each hazard type. Hazard susceptibility attributed to climate
Summary barangay
change (i.e. sea-level level hazard
rise), including inventory
past extreme matrix
weather events (drought, typhoons) experienced by the municipality should also be included.
Table 3.4 . Sample Hazard Inventory Matrix
Rain-Induced
Barangay Flood Storm surge Drought Typhoon Sea level Rise Coastal Erosion
landslide
Brgy. 1 √ √ √ √ √ √
Brgy. 2 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 3 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 4 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 5 √ √ √ √ √ √
Brgy. 6 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 7 √ √ √ √ √ √ √
Brgy. 8 √ √ √ √
Brgy. 9 √ √ √
Source: Draft Reference Manual on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Comprehensive Land Use Plans, NEDA-UNDP-HLURB,2012
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts of
climate change and disasters

22
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts of
climate change and disasters
This step takes off from the gathering of climate, climate change,
hazard and disaster information (Step 1)

• Rough mapping of potential and existing impacts using Impact Chain

Diagrams or tables (usually per ecosystem/landscape, sector or system
of interests);

• Determine climate change stimuli or hazards which will affect key sectors
so it can be studied further in the DRA or CCVA;

23
Sample summary of climate change impacts using the CLIRAM Tool 24
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts of
climate change and disasters

Indirect Impact

Direct Impact

Climate Stimulus
Indirect Impact

Direct Impact

Indirect Impact

Source: Adopted from Climate Impacts: Global and Regional Adaptation Support Platform

Impacts refer to the effects on natural and human systems of physical events, of
disasters, and of climate change – IPCC 25
Step 2. Scoping the potential impacts of
climate change and disasters CHAPTER 2 FRAMEWORKS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT 15

Sample Impact Chain (Agriculture)

26
Step 3. Exposure Database Development

27
Exposure Database provides POPULATION

baseline information pertaining

to the elements at risk. URBAN USE AREAS

Elements at risk refer to

population, assets, structure, NATURAL-RESOURCE
BASED PRODUCTION
economic activities and AREAS

environmental resources which

are located in areas exposed to LIFELINE UTILITIES
potential impacts of climate
change and damaging hazard
events. CRITICAL POINT
FACILITIES
Step 3. Exposure Database Development
Natural
Resource based Critical Point
Population Urban Areas Production Lifeline Utilities Facilities
Areas

• People • Residential • Crop Production Areas • Transportation • Educational Facilities

• Commercial • Forest • Communication • Health facilities
• Industrial Production/Protection • Power • Social Welfare related
• Tourism Areas • Water facilities
• Cemeteries • Fishery areas • Governance
• Parks and Open Spaces • Water related point
• Other unique urban uses facilities
• Communication point
facilities
• Power related point
facilities
• Bridges

• Household • Existing land • Existing land • Road maps

maps use map use map (Agri • Infrastructure
• Residential areas, forest and utilities
land use plantation map • Infrastructure
areas) • Waterlines and utilities
• Power lines map
29
Exposure maps
Exposure maps
Sample CBMS Data
Population
SHAPEFILES NEEDED
u Household Control Points
(GPS Survey)
u Barangay Boundary
Attributes
u Type of Housing Unit
u Age
u Disability status
u Access to early warning system
u Informal settlers
u Awareness to hazard impact and climate change
u Employment Status
u Income status (Poverty Threshold)
u Educational Attainment
u Literacy Status
u Access to Financial Assistance
u Access to Information
u Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
u Government Investments
Urban Use Area
SHAPEFILES NEEDED ATTRIBUTES
u Updated u Urban Land Use Category (Residential, commercial,
industrial)
Existing Land u Average construction/replacement cost per square meter
Uses u Building condition
u Barangay u Wall construction materials
Boundary u Date of Construction
u Structure employing hazard mitigation design
u Local awareness to climate change
u Area coverage to infrastructure related mitigating
measures
u Government Regulations
u Capacity and Willingness to retrofit or relocate
u Government Investments
u Insurance Coverage
u Available Alternative Sites
Natural resource-based production areas
SHAPEFILES NEEDED ATTRIBUTES
u Existing Land Use u Classification
u SAFDZ u Variety Produced
u Barangay Boundary u Annual Production/ha

u Replacement Cost
u No. of dependent farmers
Critical point facilities
SHAPEFILES NEEDED
u Control Points of Social Facilities
(School, Evacuation Center,
Multipurpose Hall, Municipal
Gym, RHU, Hospitals, water
related facility, airport, seaport,
barangay hall)
u Barangay Boundary
ATTRIBUTES
u Wall construction materials
u Building Condition
u Structure employing hazard
mitigation design
u Date of Construction
u Government Regulation on hazard
mitigation and/or structural
design
u Access to infrastructure related
mitigating measure
Lifeline Utilities
SHAPEFILES NEEDED ATTRIBUTES
u Road Network System u Classification
u Drainage System u Length/Distance
u Bridges u Construction/replacement cost

u Ormeco Pole u Construction materials used

u Communication Tower u Condition
u Water Pipeline u Structure employing hazard
u Barangay Boundary mitigation design
Step 3. Exposure Database Development

38
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)

Outputs
• Risk scores and maps

39
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)

40
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS

41
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
RISK ESTIMATION
Risk is operationalized using the
function:

Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x

Severity of Consequence

42
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)

Bonbon

Poblacion

barra
Taboc

Igpit

LE
8°30'0"N

Patag
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK MAPS

Risks to
Ground
Shaking
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK MAPS

Flood Risks
Step 4. Conduct Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA)
OTHER EXAMPLES OF RISK MAPS
Step 5. Summarize Findings

Figure 3.6.1. Detailing of decision areas. Identification of major decision areas (urban use areas)
using the Identified flood risk decision areas (right) and Sea Level Rise vulnerability decision areas
(left). Indicative boundary of two major decision areas in Barangay Igpiit highlighted in green.
Step 5. Summarize Findings
SUPPLEMENTAL GUIDELINES ON MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISKS IN THE COMPREHENSIVE LAND USE PLAN

Table 3.6.1 Sample Issues Matrix Urban Use Areas

A B C D E
Decision
Description Problems/Hazards Impacts/Implications Policy Interventions
Area/s
Igpit - Area located at Areas prone to • Severe potential • Relocation of informal settler families, employ
Informal the mouth of riverine and coastal damages to residential managed retreat or incremental relocation;
settler areas the Bungcalalan flooding, potential structures due to • Establishment of early warning systems and
(MDA-1) River adjacent area submersion to floods. formulation of flood contingency plans to
to the due to sea level rise in • Potential submersion minimize potential injuries and casualties
Macalajar Bay the long term. of settlements due to during the implementation of relocation;
Changes in tidal sea level rise in the • Identification of additional 9.29 hectares of
patterns may impact long term. residential to accommodate potentially
storm surge patterns • Potential isolation of affected families and provision of
specifically wave communities, injuries comprehensive housing program for affected
heights and inland and casualties during families especially the informal settlers;
inundation. floods and, storm • Designating areas for wetland and mangrove
surges; restoration and serve as part of the eco-
Note: Risks to other hazards • Establishment of sea tourism network;
can be incorporated to
describe the area for a more walls and mitigation • New transportation systems will not be
comprehensive and multi- measures to retain pursued in the area to discourage future
hazard approach in current land uses will settlement growth;
identifying policy
interventions/ be costly, costs can
recommendations not be shouldered by
affected families and
the LGU;
• Future uncontrolled
growth of settlements
may increase exposure
and risks;
Mainstreaming Framework of CDRA into
CLUP 12- step process
 Entry points of CCA-DRR into the 12-step process
• Incorporate the
conduct of the CDRA in
the work and financial
plan
• Organize key sectoral
• Include local • Fine tuning Vision descriptors and • Enhanced understanding of climate
and disaster risks affecting the locality
• Specific targets/success indicators to
address current risks
• Incorporate climate change adaptation
and disaster risk reduction concerns in
success indicators based on the
stakeholders and relevant findings from the CDRA • Priority Decision Areas based on risk • Goals, objectives and success evaluating development thrust and
spatial strategy options
representatives from evaluation indicators related to future planned
• Policy Interventions/Options with disaster risk reduction and climate • Ensuring selected dev’t thrust and
the hazard mapping emphasis on Risk Management change adaptation spatial strategies account for the
future climate change scenario and its
agencies who will Options
possible impacts to the severity and
• Adjusted land demand to account for
participate and assist in backlogs due to risks and
frequency of natural hazards

representatives who the CDRA vulnerabilities

• Analysis of land supply and suitability
will participate in the based climate change and possible
impacts on the severity and frequency
CDRA of natural hazards

STEP 1 STEP 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6

Organize Identifying Set the Analyze the Set the Goals and Establish Development
Thrust and Spatial
Stakeholders Vision Situation Objectives Strategies

STEP 12 STEP 11 Step 10 Step 9 Step 8 Step 7

Monitor and Evaluate Implement the Review, Adopt and Conduct Public Drafting the Zoning Prepare the Land Use
the CLUP and ZO CLUP and ZO Approve the CLUP and Ordinance Plan
Hearing
ZO

• Identification of risk reduction
and climate change adaptation
monitoring parameters and
procedures
• PPAs impact monitoring and
evaluation
• Strengthen the support institutional
structures, systems and procedures
for enforcement and monitoring
• Program and project assessment,
prioritization and development
• Budgetary support/requirements
• Information, Education and
Communication Campaign
• Interface with other local level plans
to implement DRR-CCA agenda
• Ensure identified risk management
options to effectively address
current and prevent future risks are
translated in the CLUP and ZO;
• Inviting representatives from
agencies involved in DRR-CCA (i.e.
hazard mapping agencies, Provincial
DRRMO, Provincial CCO) during the
review and approval process
• Consultation with stakeholders on
the acceptability of proposed risk
management options
• Establishing hazard overlay zones
and priority risk management zones/
districts
• Zoning regulations to reduce risks
by applying risk reduction
approaches such as density control,
hazard resistant building design
standards, site development
standards, and additional
development requirements
• Consultation with hazard experts
and stakeholders in the
identification of zoning regulations
• Climate and disaster risk sensitive
land use allocation/spatial location.
• Applying risk reduction approaches
(risk avoidance, mitigation, transfer
and retention) in designing the land
use scheme and land use policy
development
• Menu of programs and projects for
disaster risk reduction; and climate
change adaptation
References

- CLUP Guidebooks 2013-2014

- Supplemental Guidelines on Mainstreaming
CCA-DRR into the CLUP
- GIS Guidebook: A Guide to Data
Management
- Climate Change in the Philippines, PAGASA
- “We Know Enough About Climate Change”
GIZ
 Thank you!

www.hlurb.gov.ph
THANK YOU VERY MUCH!!!