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QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
Quantitative Valuation
MUFG Business Strategy and Outlook banking era.
y
JPN
Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 18 October 2018
Undervalued Fairly Valued Overvalued Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, or MUFG, is Japan’s Analyst Note
largest bank, with a 9.4% share of domestic loans and Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 04 February 2019
Current 5-Yr Avg Sector Country
Price/Quant Fair Value 0.88 0.94 0.87 0.86
11.6% of deposits as of March 2018. In Japan, the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) reported
Price/Earnings 7.6 15.6 12.7 15.4 environment for banks has been tough for years and we October-December results similar to those reported by
Forward P/E 7.7 — 10.5 14.1 expect it to remain so. The long-running deflationary Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) last week.
Price/Cash Flow 19.5 6.1 9.5 9.7 environment in the country has led to persistently low Similar to SMFG achieving 24% of full-year net profit
Price/Free Cash Flow — 10.2 10.9 18.3
Trailing Dividend Yield% 3.57 2.81 3.64 1.84
demand for loans, with the loan/deposit ratio having guidance of JPY 700 billion after 32% and 35% in the
Source: Morningstar declined from 74% in 2000 to around 55% at present. The fiscal first and second quarters (cumulative progression
liabilities/net assets ratio for Japan’s approximately 1 of 91%), MUFG achieved 23% of its full-year net profit
Bulls Say million business corporations has declined from a highly guidance of JPY 950 billion after 33% and 35% in the
OMUFG's price/book ratio of around 0.6 times looks leveraged 4 times in the mid-1990s to a healthy 129% as same period (cumulative progression of 92%). MUFG’s
inexpensive for long-term investors relative to many of June 2018, but corporate borrowers prioritize cash flow annualized MUFG's ROE declined sequentially from 8.4%
other large global banks. for paying down existing debt, rather than taking out new in the previous quarter to 5.5% for October-December,
OMUFG has a strong presence in multiple banking loans for investment. This comes even as the average similar to SMFG’s decline from 9.3% to 6.2%.
markets in Southeast Asia that are underbanked and interest rate on new bank loans has declined by 100 basis
offer long-term secular growth. points over the past decade to below 0.7%. Like SMFG, MUFG saw a modest reappearance of credit
OMUFG's growing presence in the U.S. market could costs this quarter after net write-backs in previous
provide profit upside if the group manages to reduce Facing such a tough environment in its home market, quarters, at 18 basis points of loans on an annualized
its high expense ratio there while controlling credit MUFG has expanded its overseas business significantly basis, versus SMFG’s 24 basis points. We think these
costs. since 2010, with overseas loans comprising 40% of total credit costs are mainly attributable to overseas loans, as
loans as of March 2018, compared with 21% in March rising USD interest rates and factors such as lower oil
2011. Mitsubishi UFJ Americas Holdings, the holding prices affected some borrowers. In terms of details where
Bears Say
company for California-based Union Bank, contributed MUFG’s results differed from SMFG’s, MUFG reported a
OMUFG’s ROE is lower than that most large global
11% of total profit in the year ended March 2018, while stronger top line, likely reflecting its larger overseas
banks, reflecting both its exposure to the tough
Krungsri (the fifth-largest bank in Thailand, 77% owned exposure, with net interest income up 4.3% year on year
Japanese market and its conservative approach that
by MUFG) contributed 7% and equity-method earnings of and total net revenue up 3%, but unlike SMFG that reduced
sometimes prioritizes prudence over aggressive
affiliate Morgan Stanley contributed 17%. MUFG is also expenses 7%, MUFG’s expenses in yen terms increased
pursuit of returns.
in the process of making Indonesia’s Bank Danamon a slightly, up 1% year over year.
OMUFG pays a lower dividend yield than the other
consolidated subsidiary and owns roughly 20% stakes in
two Japanese megabanks.
banks in the Philippines and Vietnam. By segment, MUFG’s preprovision operating profit grew
OMUFG lacks a competitive advantage in the U.S. in Japanese corporate & investment banking (up 9%),
market, where its persistent issues with cost In our view, MUFG should be able to achieve returns global corporate & investment banking (up 12%), and at
efficiency seem difficult to solve. commensurate with the cost of equity in the growing its large overseas subsidiaries that include Union Bank in
markets of Southeast Asia where it has scale and can California and Krungsri in Thailand (up 11%). Asset
import some expertise from more developed markets, but management grew 1% and domestic retail and
it will struggle to earn good returns in North America small-business banking declined 20%.
where the market is competitive and its costs are high.
The key to MUFG’s overall profitability remains its We maintain our no-moat rating and fair value estimate
domestic franchise, which is mostly dependent upon the of JPY 797 and USD 7.12 for MUFG. Although there is 38%
macroeconomic environment (level of interest rates, and upside to our valuation from today’s close, we continue to
intensity of loan demand) but also MUFG’s ability to trim prefer SMFG slightly. There is 45% upside to our valuation
costs as it reconfigures operations for a more digitalized for SMFG, and it has a stronger outlook for dividend growth
?
© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 2 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
Close Competitors Currency (Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Operating Margin TTM/PE Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 18 October 2018
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc 8316 JPY 5,502,846 0 0.00 7.27 Our model estimates MUFG’s fair value at USD 7.12 per
share. This is 10.8 times our estimated earnings for the
Mizuho Financial Group Inc 8411 JPY 4,384,452 0 0.00 7.60
fiscal year ending March 2019 and 0.66 times book value
Bank of America Corporation BAC USD 274,414 88,947 0.00 10.87
as of June 2018.
Citigroup Inc C USD 150,802 72,239 0.00 9.51
than MUFG, in our view. Our base-case scenario assumes that the net interest
margin rises from 0.90% in the year ended March 2018 to
0.97% in the current year ending March 2019 and 0.99%
Economic Moat
in the year ending March 2020 due to increasing
Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 18 October 2018
contribution of MUFG’s overseas loans (we expect net
We do not believe MUFG has an economic moat. It has
interest margin to rise further to 1.08% by the year ending
some degree of market power owing to its position as the
March 2023 after consolidation of Bank Danamon in
largest bank in Japan, with a 9.4% share of loans and
Indonesia). We assume loans grow at a 0.5% cumulative
11.6% of deposits as of March 2018, roughly 30% larger
annual growth rate on an organic basis, that fees grow at
than its domestic rivals SMFG and Mizuho, but its status
1.5% on an organic basis, and that expenses grow 0.7%
as the country’s top bank also requires it to be especially
on an organic basis (growing overseas and shrinking
mindful of its obligations to the broader Japanese society,
slightly in Japan).
and we believe it needs to be especially prudent and wary
of aggressive pursuit of profits if other stakeholders could
Our forecasts lead to an average return on equity of 6.0%,
be negatively affected by its actions. MUFG has not been
compared with a historical average of 7.2% in the eight
able to earn return on equity equal to our assumed cost
years since the global financial crisis. We use a 8.55%
of equity of 8.55% in recent years and indeed has trailed
cost of equity to derive our fair value, which is the blended
the other two megabanks, although we think it faces
average of 60% times 8.0% for Japan, 25% times 9.0%
somewhat fewer challenges than Mizuho in the coming
for developed-market exposures, and 15% times 10.0%
five years.
for emerging-market exposures.
Outside of Japan, although MUFG is the largest foreign
bank in the U.S. excluding Canadian banks, it is still Risk & Uncertainty
outside of the top 10 and its Union Bank unit on the West Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 18 October 2018
Coast suffers from persistently low efficiency. In Thailand Our uncertainty rating for MUFG is medium. Since the
and Indonesia, MUFG has managed to gain control of the global financial crisis, Japanese banks have reported
fifth- and sixth-largest banks respectively, something that lower earnings volatility than banks in other developed
has proven difficult for foreign acquirers (Singapore’s DBS economies and lower earnings volatility than
failed to acquire Bank Danamon before MUFG finally emerging-market banks. Nonperforming loan, or NPL,
succeeded), but both of these banks have lower average ratios have steadily declined for almost all Japanese
ROEs than the top banks in their countries, perhaps banks over the past decade as interest rates have fallen
reflecting their histories of frequent ownership changes. and following many years of relatively slow credit growth.
MUFG reported an NPL ratio of 1.11% as of June 2018,
In Japan, MUFG may have narrow moats in certain of its the lowest in its history.
businesses, such as its 40%-owned ACOM consumer
finance subsidiary and asset management/investor However, the extended period of very long lending rates
services, which we estimate earn ROEs of around 15% in Japan (the average rate on new loans extended by
and 20%, respectively, but we do not see any advantage so-called "city" banks such as Mitsubishi UFJ Bank has
for MUFG in the larger retail banking business, where been below 1% since 2010, and the average rate on the
regional banks in dominant in their home regions and stock of outstanding loans at "city" banks below 1% since
customers are price-sensitive. 2015) means that some domestic borrowers with marginal
cash flows that are currently able to pay loan interest could
face difficulties doing so if interest rates rose even a little
Fair Value & Profit Drivers
bit. Moreover, Japanese megabanks’ expansion of
?
© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 3 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
overseas lending in the current decade, which has made partner at several large accounting firms, heads the audit
them the largest cross-border lenders in the world, leaves committee. Yuko Kawamoto, a professor at Waseda
them exposed to credit losses in the event of a global Graduate School of Business and Finance, heads the risk
recession or other significant economic dislocation. committee. Nobuyuki Hirano, president and group CEO of
MUFG, is the only nonindependent director on any of these
Stewardship committees, with the exception of the audit committee,
Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 18 October 2018 which has three outside directors and two nonexecutive
We assign MUFG a stewardship rating of Standard. directors. The other nonindependent directors are MUFG
Chairman Kiyoshi Sono, MUFG Bank CEO Kanetsugu Mike,
MUFG holds around JPY 6 trillion worth of domestic Mitsubisi UFJ Trust CEO Mikio Ikegaya, and Mitsubishi
equities (JPY 2.3 trillion on an acquisition-cost basis plus UFJ Securities CEO Saburo Araki. Hirano, who is 67 years
unrealized gains of JPY 3.2 trillion), amounting to 45% of old, has led MUFG since April 2013.
its Tier 1 capital. Unlike loans or bonds that are repaid at
par, the value of these equities fluctuates in a volatile MUFG has been more conservative with its dividend
manner along with market prices. Under the final Basel payout policy than the other Japanese megabanks, paying
III rules, equities in principle carry risk weights of 250%, out an average of 25% of earnings over the past four years,
making them extremely capital-intensive for a bank to compared with 30% for SMFG and 31% for Mizuho, which
hold. Although some of these equities pay dividends has a smaller capital cushion. In our view, MUFG’s lower
higher than many of MUFG’s loans and might appear to payout ratio does not reflect an inferior attention to the
be acceptable investments on a non-risk-weighted basis, interests of shareholders, but rather MUFG’s more
relative to their capital consumption, it is difficult to justify conservative corporate culture. Rather than paying out a
holding these equities. MUFG, like the other two fixed percentage of each year’s earnings, Japanese banks
Japanese megabanks, has been steadily reducing its generally pay the same amount in yen each year until they
holdings since the early 2000s. MUFG’s medium-term are confident that a rise in earnings will be sustainable.
target for doing so is based on the ratio of the acquisition Thus, MUFG left its dividend at JPY 18 for three years and
cost of the equities (that is, not including unrealized gains) only increased the dividend to JPY 19 for the year ended
to Tier 1 capital. This ratio was 14.2% as of March 2018 March 2018 once its earnings recovered somewhat from
and MUFG aims to reduce it to about 10% by March 2021. the impact of the Bank of Japan’s introduction of its
The reason MUFG and its peers give for not reducing the negative-interest-rate policy in early 2016.
shareholdings even faster is that it is necessary to obtain
the consent of the management of the affected
companies, which can be difficult not only because the
management teams might prefer a stable shareholder like
MUFG, but also because the sale presumably could put
downward pressure on the share price.
?
© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 4 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
The environment for banks has been tough for years in MUFG management has been clear for several years now
Japan, and we expect it to remain so. Long-running that they have wanted to purchase a large overseas
deflation, which started in earnest in the late 1990s and asset-management firm in order to address MUFG's
has yet to end conclusively, has led to persistently low relatively low exposure to the asset-management
demand for credit. The loan/deposit ratio is only around segment compared with other large global banks, but we
55% at present, down from 74% in 2000. Japanese think MUFG had shied away from doing a big deal until
corporates, which in aggregate had a liabilities/net assets now owing to management's view that valuations in the
ratio of 4 times in the mid-1990s, have reduced this to a industry were too expensive to buy. We see MUFG as being
healthy 129% as of June, but companies continue to able to buy CFSGAM now without paying an excessive
prioritize using cash flow to pay down debt rather than premium only because Commonwealth Bank of Australia
aggressively making new investments. Individuals had decided anyway in June to spin off its
similarly are generally loath to borrow, given stagnant wealth-management and mortgage-broking business in
nominal incomes. With low demand for credit and a surfeit order to refocus on its core lending business in the wake
of liquid deposits, competition among banks has pushed of several scandals that exposed the Australian bank to
the average interest rate on new bank loans down by 100 closer regulatory scrutiny. The parties expect the
basis points over the past decade to below 0.7% at transaction to close in mid-2019 after they have obtained
present. While there are reasons to hope this has started required approvals.
to bottom out, a catalyst for a material rise in lending rates
is not apparent, especially with the Bank of Japan Higher-Than-Expected MUFG Profit Comes From
committed to keeping policy rates extremely low "for an Reversals of Credit Costs While Core Business
extended period." Struggles
Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 13 November 2018
MUFG' Price for First State Seems Reasonable Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group posted better-than-expected
Given Exposure to Growing Asian Asset- profit at the bottom line for the July-September quarter
Management Market owing to JPY 93 billion in write-backs of reserves for
Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 30 October 2018 losses on loans to borrowers now judged to be less of a
?
© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 5 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
risk, but excluding one-time factors, it was another for MUFG's various securities operations. More than 90%
difficult quarter for MUFG. Strong returns from equity of the profit of Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings comes
method affiliate Morgan Stanley, which contributed 20% from MUFG's Japanese joint ventures with Morgan
of total profit during the period, and growth at Thai Stanley, which generate around 4-5% of MUFG's total net
subsidiary Bank of Ayudhya could not compensate for the profit. Separately, another 15% or so of MUFG's total net
shrinking trend in the core domestic banking business. profit comes as equity-method revenue from its 24% stake
in Morgan Stanley. Hence, we see the kabu.com business
Net revenue dropped 6.4% year on year, a faster rate of as quite peripheral to MUFG's core strategy for its
decline than the previous quarter’s 6.1%, as net interest securities business, which hinges on collaboration with
income slid 4.2% and net fees were down 4.9% year on Morgan Stanley in Japan and for cross-border business.
year. With operating expenses up slightly, preprovision Unlike in the mid-2000s when MUFG bought kabu.com,
operating profit fell 20% year on year, compared with an the firm now also appears to us to be ex-growth. Its share
18% fall in the previous quarter. MUFG raised its overly of retail trading value has topped out around 9% while
conservative full-year guidance to net profit of JPY 950 leaders SBI Securities and Rakuten Securities continue to
billion from JPY 850 billion, but the new guidance still take share and together control more than half the market.
only implies a return on equity of 3.7% in the second fiscal
half, given that MUFG already earned more than JPY 650 Jibun Bank, already a 50-50 joint venture with KDDI, is
billion in the first two quarters. even smaller in terms of its contribution to MUFG,
generating only about 0.1% of total net profit. Although
The group declared an interim dividend of JPY 11 per it has more than 3 million customer accounts, the size of
share, up from JPY 9 in last year’s first half, although even its customer deposits is still only around JPY 1 trillion, a
with the boost, MUFG’s dividend yield of 3.3% is still fraction of rival Internet banks SBI Sumishin, DaiwaNext,
below the 3.8% and 3.9% yields of Japan’s other two Sony Bank and Rakuten Bank. In our view, the participation
megabanks. Instead, MUFG has been an active in ownership of such a second-tier Internet bank has barely
repurchaser of its shares. It most recently announced contributed to MUFG's strategy to adapt its retail business
plans to buy back up to JPY 100 billion in the second fiscal for the Internet era and potentially created conflicts, so a
half, which when combined with the JPY 50 billion sale to KDDI would seem appropriate.
repurchased in the first half would put the group on pace
to maintain the average of the past four years (1.7% of MUFG Also Reports Modest Uptick in Credit Costs
shares outstanding annually) in the current fiscal year. in 3Q; We Prefer SMFG
Combined with the 3.3% dividend yield, this represents a Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 04 February 2019
total shareholder return yield of around 5%. We maintain Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) reported
our no-moat rating and JPY 797 fair value estimate, which October-December results similar to those reported by
is 0.64 times book value and 20% above the current price. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) last week.
Similar to SMFG achieving 24% of full-year net profit
Sale of Kabu and Jibun Stakes Would Aid Flexibility guidance of JPY 700 billion after 32% and 35% in the
of MUFG Internet Strategy Without Giving Up Much fiscal first and second quarters (cumulative progression
Michael Makdad, Eq. Analyst, 23 January 2019 of 91%), MUFG achieved 23% of its full-year net profit
The Nikkei reported that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, guidance of JPY 950 billion after 33% and 35% in the
or MUFG, is holding negotiations to sell some of its stakes same period (cumulative progression of 92%). MUFG’s
in Internet brokerage kabu.com and Internet-only bank annualized MUFG's ROE declined sequentially from 8.4%
Jibun Bank to mobile carrier KDDI. If these sales to KDDI in the previous quarter to 5.5% for October-December,
take place, they would not affect our fair value estimate similar to SMFG’s decline from 9.3% to 6.2%.
for MUFG, which remains JPY 797, 0.64 times book value
and 38% above yesterday's closing price. Like SMFG, MUFG saw a modest reappearance of credit
costs this quarter after net write-backs in previous
Kabu.com generates about 0.4% of MUFG's total net quarters, at 18 basis points of loans on an annualized
profit and 10% of the net profit of Mitsubishi UFJ basis, versus SMFG’s 24 basis points. We think these
Securities Holdings, the intermediate holding company credit costs are mainly attributable to overseas loans, as
?
© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 6 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
?
© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Quantitative Equity Report | Release: 04 Feb 2019, 08:09, GMT-06:00 | Reporting Currency: JPY | Trading Currency: USD | Exchange:XNYS Page
Page 7 of1 14
of 1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc ADR MUFG QQQQ 04 Feb 2019 02:00 UTC
Last Close Fair ValueQ Market Cap Sector Industry Country of Domicile
01 Feb 2019 04 Feb 2019 02:00 UTC 01 Feb 2019
5.25 5.98 68,074.3 Mil y Financial Services Banks - Global JPN Japan
There is no one analyst in which a Quantitative Fair Value Estimate and Quantitative
Star Rating are attributed to; however, Mr. Lee Davidson, Head of Quantitative
Price vs. Quantitative Fair Value
Research for Morningstar, Inc., is responsible for overseeing the methodology that 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Quantitative Fair Value Estimate
supports the quantitative fair value. As an employee of Morningstar, Inc., Mr. Total Return
Davidson is guided by Morningstar, Inc.’s Code of Ethics and Personal Securities
Trading Policy in carrying out his responsibilities. For information regarding Conflicts Sales/Share
10
of Interests, visit http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures Forecast Range
Forcasted Price
8 Dividend
Company Profile
Split
MUFG is the largest bank in Japan in terms of market Momentum: —
6
capitalization and assets with a share of all domestic loans an Standard Deviation: 26.12
9.4% as of March 2018. It is the largest non-Chinese bank Liquidity: High
4
group globally and has a balance sheet slightly larger than
those of JPMorgan Chase (JPM US) and HSBC Holdings 4.64 52-Wk 7.50
(HSBA LN). MUFG’s operations in Japan accounted for 61% of 2
its preprovision operating profit in the year ended March 3.86 5-Yr 8.11
2018, with the U.S. contributing about 15%. In the U.S.,
15.1 1.7 20.6 -30.4 7.8 Total Return %
MUFG’s wholly owned Union Bank (unlisted) subsidiary is
14.4 -10.7 -0.9 -25.4 -0.9 +/– Market (Morningstar US Index)
Quantitative Scores Scores 2.34 2.70 2.20 3.85 3.57 Trailing Dividend Yield %
All Rel Sector Rel Country 2.35 2.57 2.20 3.85 3.57 Forward Dividend Yield %
Quantitative Moat None 50 39 67 7.0 12.5 55.9 5.7 7.6 Price/Earnings
Valuation Undervalued 33 48 31 2.3 2.4 3.8 2.0 2.2 Price/Revenue
Quantitative Uncertainty High 84 86 77 Morningstar RatingQ
Financial Health Strong 100 87 99 QQQQQ
QQQQ
QQQ
MUFG QQ
y
JPN
Q
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM Financials (Fiscal Year in Bil)
Undervalued Fairly Valued Overvalued 3,450 4,655 4,207 2,946 3,640 3,414 Revenue
Source: Morningstar Equity Research -6.0 34.9 -9.6 -30.0 23.5 -6.2 % Change
— — — — — — Operating Income
— — — — — — % Change
Valuation Sector Country
Current 5-Yr Avg Median Median 1,015 1,531 802 203 1,228 991 Net Income
Price/Quant Fair Value 0.88 0.94 0.87 0.86 909 2,385 4,181 685 -564 387 Operating Cash Flow
Price/Earnings 7.6 15.6 12.7 15.4 -370 -374 -362 -354 -399 -411 Capital Spending
Forward P/E 7.7 — 10.5 14.1 539 2,011 3,819 331 -963 -24 Free Cash Flow
Price/Cash Flow 19.5 6.1 9.5 9.7 15.6 43.2 90.8 11.2 -26.4 -0.7 % Sales
Price/Free Cash Flow — 10.2 10.9 18.3 69.98 107.50 57.51 14.68 92.10 75.06 EPS
Trailing Dividend Yield % 3.57 2.81 3.64 1.84 -5.6 53.6 -46.5 -74.5 527.4 -18.5 % Change
Price/Book 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 -0.46 -0.24 2.14 2.03 -2.00 -0.02 Free Cash Flow/Share
Price/Sales 2.2 2.5 2.9 0.8 15.25 16.82 18.58 16.97 18.63 20.65 Dividends/Share
7.46 7.71 9.28 9.30 10.49 10.82 Book Value/Share
Profitability Sector Country 14,018 13,789 13,430 13,163 12,959 12,959 Shares Outstanding (Mil)
Current 5-Yr Avg Median Median
Profitability
Return on Equity % 6.6 7.1 10.1 9.2
9.1 11.5 5.5 1.4 8.5 6.6 Return on Equity %
Return on Assets % 0.3 0.3 1.4 4.3
0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 Return on Assets %
Revenue/Employee (Mil) 30.7 28.6 0.8 32.0
28.8 32.7 19.1 6.9 33.8 29.0 Net Margin %
0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Asset Turnover
Financial Health Sector Country
Current 5-Yr Avg Median Median 21.6 19.1 20.5 21.2 20.1 19.6 Financial Leverage
Distance to Default 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 — — — — — — Gross Margin %
Solvency Score — — 503.7 430.9 — — — — — — Operating Margin %
Assets/Equity 20.1 20.3 3.7 1.9 14,499 19,969 21,972 26,115 27,051 27,881 Long-Term Debt
Long-Term Debt/Equity 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.2 12,205 14,679 14,271 13,986 14,970 15,286 Total Equity
3.0 4.2 4.2 2.9 3.6 3.4 Fixed Asset Turns
Growth Per Share Quarterly Revenue & EPS Revenue Growth Year On Year %
1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Revenue (Bil) Jun Sep Dec Mar Total
Revenue % 23.5 -7.9 -0.2 -1.2 2018 1,081.6 880.7 — — 3,639.5
Operating Income % — — — — 2017 — 2,095.5 — 850.9 2,946.3 -3.3
© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and ®
opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore is not an offer to buy or sell a security; are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate; and
are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, ß
analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced, in any manner without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 8 of 14
Morningstar Research Methodology for Valuing Companies Because a dollar earned today is worth more than a
dollar earned tomorrow, we discount our projections of
cash flows in stages I, II, and III to arrive at a total
present value of expected future cash flows. Because we
are modeling free cash flow to the firm—representing cash
available to provide a return to all capital providers—we
discount future cash flows using the WACC, which is a
weighted average of the costs of equity, debt, and preferred
stock (and any other funding sources), using expected
future proportionate long-term market-value weights.
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© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 9 of 14
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© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 10 of 14
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© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 11 of 14
This Report has not been made available to the issuer of the
security prior to publication.
Risk Warning
Please note that investments in securities are subject to
market and other risks and there is no assurance or
guarantee that the intended investment objectives will be
achieved. Past performance of a security may or may not be
sustained in future and is no indication of future
performance. A security investment return and an investor's
principal value will fluctuate so that, when redeemed, an
investor's shares may be worth more or less than their
original cost. A security's current investment performance
may be lower or higher than the investment performance
noted within the report.
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© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 12 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
General Disclosure
The analysis within this report is prepared by the person
(s) noted in their capacity as an analyst for Morningstar’s
equity research group. The equity research group
consists of various Morningstar, Inc. subsidiaries
(“Equity Research Group)”. In the United States, that
subsidiary is Morningstar Research Services LLC, which
is registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission.
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© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 13 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
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© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
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reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.
Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 14 of 14
QQQQ 5.25 USD 7.12 USD 0.74 3.57 3.57 68.07 Banks - Global Standard
01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 18 Oct 2018 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019 01 Feb 2019
22:39, UTC 09:05, UTC
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© Morningstar 2019. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided
solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall
not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any
manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order
reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869.