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Abstract
The two safety indicators “headway” and “time to collision (TTC)” are discussed and compared with respect to their usefulness in
determining the safety of different traffic situations, like different locations in a junction. Over a 6-day-period traffic flow measures were
taken in a four-way junction with stop signs on the minor road. It was found that for vehicles in a car following situation headway and TTC
are independent of each other. The percentage of small headways is relatively constant across different locations in the junction, while the
percentage of small TTC values varies between different locations. It is recommended to use headway for enforcement purposes, because
small headways generate potentially dangerous situations. TTC, on the other hand, should be used when a certain traffic environment is to
be evaluated in terms of safety, because it indicates the actual occurrences of dangerous situations.
© 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Safety assessment; Safety indicator; Time to collision; Headway
0001-4575/02/$ – see front matter © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 0 0 1 - 4 5 7 5 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 0 2 2 - 2
428 K. Vogel / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003) 427–433
However, no direct relation to the occurrence of traffic con- with Ẋi−1 denoting the speed of the lead vehicle, Ẋi the
flicts was provided. speed of the following vehicle and li−1 the length of the lead
vehicle.
1.2. Time to collision To obtain TTC, the speed of both the involved vehicles
has to be known in addition to the time gap. An interesting
TTC is computed according to Eq. (2). difference between the two measures exists with respect to
traffic safety. It could be formulated such that time headway
Xi−1 (t) − Xi (t) − li
TTCi = ∀ Ẋi (t) > Ẋi−1 (t) (2) is “a step further away” from a crash than TTC. This claim
Ẋi (t) − Ẋi−1 (t) is based on the reasoning described later.
Let us consider a vehicle in the “following mode”. Such
with Ẋi denoting the speed of vehicle i, Xi the position of
a vehicle can have a relatively small headway, but a large
vehicle i, li the length of vehicle i and i−1 the vehicle ahead
or even undefined TTC value. This situation occurs, when
of vehicle i.
Ẋi−1 is equal to or larger than Ẋi (cf. Eq. (3)). The situation
The TTC is the time that is left until a collision occurs if
becomes critical only when something in the constellation
both vehicles continue on the same course and at the same
changes, like when the lead vehicle brakes such that Ẋi−1
speed. Therefore it is the time that is needed to cover the
becomes smaller than Ẋi . Thus, under stable circumstances,
distance between the lead and the following vehicle with
a small time headway can be maintained over extended pe-
the relative speed between the lead and the following ve-
riods of time without resulting in an immediately danger-
hicle. Hayward (1972) first introduced this concept, and it
ous situation. If, on the other hand, the TTC value of the
is discussed extensively in Hydén (1987), for example. For
following vehicle is small, something has to change in the
calculation of TTC to be possible, the vehicles in ques-
constellation if a crash is to be avoided. In a car-following
tion have to be on collision course, but not necessarily in
situation, the average relative speed between following and
a car-following situation. TTC in car-following situations
lead vehicle cannot be larger than 0 if a collision is to be
is only defined when the speed of the following vehicle is
avoided in the long run.
higher than the speed of the lead vehicle. In research TTC
To summarize, vehicles with small time headways can
has often been used as a safety indicator for certain ma-
(and frequently do) have large or undefined TTC values,
neuvers by determining the minimum TTC measured dur-
while small TTC values (in car following) are impossible
ing the maneuver (e.g. van Winsum and Heino, 1996; Hirst
for vehicles with long time headways. In a car-following
and Graham, 1997; Janssen and Nilsson, 1991). According
situation, TTC can, in fact, never be smaller than H , because
to Svensson (1998), TTC is an indicator for a traffic con-
the term Ẋi /(Ẋi − Ẋi−1 ) (cf. Eq. (3)) can never be smaller
flict and is, thus, inversely related to accident risk (smaller
than 1. This is due to the fact that Ẋi−1 is never negative,
TTC values indicate higher accident risks and vice versa).
which would mean that the lead vehicle was reversing. In
In a recent article, Minderhoud and Bovy (2001) suggest a
the special case of a stopped lead vehicle (Ẋi−1 = 0), the
method, which allows using TTC to compare the safety of
actual time gap (H ) equals TTC.
different drivers, road environments, or situations in gen-
As mentioned earlier, in a car-following situation TTC
eral. The basic idea is to sample TTC values over time, and
can never be smaller than the time gap between the lead and
to examine how often a certain driver undershoots a given
the following vehicle (H ). Thus, if the two values are to be
lower safety limit, or how often this limit is breached on a
compared, it seems reasonable to exclude those cases that
particular road stretch or under particular conditions. In the
are not safety critical with respect to any of the two measures
literature different opinions can be found as to which value
(Table 1). In order to determine the threshold between safety
should be used as safety limit—suggestions range from 1.5 s
critical “small” and safe “long” headways, the existing liter-
in urban areas (Svensson, 1998) to 5 s (Maretzke and Jacob,
ature on the concept of “free” and “following vehicles” was
1992). Minderhouds and Bovy’s (2001) method will be ap-
consulted. A “free” vehicle is by definition not in interaction
plied on empirical data in this study, and different threshold
with any vehicle ahead of it. For this reason, the analyses
values will be compared.
in the present study were limited to following vehicles. The
definition for a free vehicle that was adopted here is based
1.3. Relation and comparison on an empirical analysis by Vogel (2002), which shows that
vehicles with a time headway of more than 6 s choose their the analysis, those unreliable TTC values are excluded as
traveling speed independent of the vehicle ahead. The choice well.
of this threshold value is supported by the fact that no author
considers a TTC that is larger than 6 s to be dangerous. This
means that even a stopped lead vehicle will not force the 2. Method
follower to perform dangerous avoidance maneuvers if the
headway is larger than 6 s (and the following driver can see The location of the study was a four-way junction in a
the vehicle ahead). Only for speeds higher than 130 km/h a mid-sized town in Sweden. The junction is one of the most
larger time headway is needed to stop a vehicle safely be- accident-prone locations in town. Stop signs were placed
hind a stopped vehicle. on the subordinate road and right-of-way signs were placed
An additional reason for limiting the analysis to follow- on the main road. The posted speed limit was 50 km/h on
ing vehicles only is the possibility to compare different sit- all arms of the junction. All arms had one lane in each
uations with each other. It allows, e.g. comparing the safety direction, except for one arm on the main road, which had a
level for situations with different traffic densities, either separate lane for left-turning vehicles (Fig. 1). The junction
across locations, or in the same location at different times. was located in the outskirts of the town, the two streets
If it were of interest whether the safety level is influenced forming it were major roads leading to residential areas. The
by time of day (daytime versus night-time), a simple com- continuation of the main road after measurement site Main1
parison of the percentage of small TTCs across all vehi- (indicated in Fig. 1) led out of town, the continuation after
cles would mostly reflect the lower traffic volume during measurement site Main5 led to the city center. Lampposts
night-time. This might lead to the assumption that safety in- were installed at the junction on all four arms.
creases during the night. If, on the other hand, only those For 6 days in spring 2000, traffic flow point measure-
vehicles are considered that actually are in a car-following ments were taken 24 h a day at seven locations around the
situation, a relative increase of small TTC values might be junction. The weather during the measurement week was
found during the night, which could for instance be ex- either sunny or cloudy, but there was no precipitation. The
plained with driver fatigue and extended reaction times. measurement devices (described in detail in Anund, 1992)
The last reason for restricting the analysis to following record the speed of each passing vehicle, its direction, the
vehicles is of methodological nature. A consequence of the time interval between two passing vehicles, and the axle dis-
measurement technique used in this study is that TTC val- tance of each vehicle, from which the vehicle type can be
ues become less reliable the longer the time headway for deduced to a certain extent (Sörensen, 1996).
the vehicle in question. This is explained in more detail in The locations of the measurement devices are indicated
Section 3. By excluding vehicles with a long headway from in Fig. 1. The measuring sites Main1 and Main4, as well as
Fig. 1. Schematic overview of the junction with indication of the location of the measurement sites.
430 K. Vogel / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003) 427–433
Sub1 and Sub2 were located at 115 m distance from the cen- following vehicle was recorded at the measurement site, and
ter of the junction, the sites Main2 and Main3 were located ti−1 being the time when the lead vehicle was recorded at
at 17.5 m distance from the center of the junction. Main5 the measurement site.
was located on the main road, approximately 600 m away
from Main4. There was no junction in the vicinity, except 3.1. Traffic density
for one small and not very frequently used by-road lead-
ing to a block of houses, at a distance of about 20 m from Neither the subordinate nor the main road operated at ca-
Sub2. On site Main3 (direction out of town), left-turning pacity level any time. For both roads the number of vehi-
vehicles could be registered separately due to the divided cles per hour was very similar across weekdays, the pattern
lane. looked different for Saturday and Sunday, though, as there
Measurement sites were defined to be “corresponding”, were no rush hour peaks. The increase in traffic volume dur-
when they were installed on equivalent locations with re- ing the morning and the afternoon rush hours on weekdays
spect to the junction. In this sense, the locations Sub1 (direc- was more pronounced on the main road.
tion towards junction) and Sub2 (direction towards junction) The percentage of following vehicles lay on average
are corresponding, as well as the locations Main2 (direction slightly above 30% on the main road and somewhat below
away from junction) and Main3 (direction away from junc- 30% on the subordinate roads. The percentage of following
tion). vehicles increased with increasing traffic volume, but at any
time of day there were at least 50% free vehicles on both
roads.
3. Results
3.2. Relationship between time to collision and headway
Between 20,000 and 40,000 vehicles were registered at
each location, depending on traffic volume. For each vehi- For each site and each direction correlations between time
cle the driving speed, driving direction and the passing time headway and TTC were calculated for cases with valid TTC
were recorded. Each driving direction was analyzed sepa- values (speed of following vehicle larger than speed of lead
rately for each site. Only vehicles with time headways of at vehicle). At each site, the correlation was substantial if all
most 6 s were considered in the analysis. Time headway and vehicles were considered (average correlation r = 0.423;
TTC were calculated as follows. S.D. = 0.169), but close to 0 when only following vehicles
Time headway was calculated precisely as in Eq. (1). It were considered (average correlation r = 0.077; S.D. =
has to be noted that “time headway” usually is defined as the 0.047). If only following vehicles are considered, TTC and
elapsed time between the front of the lead vehicle’s and the H can be regarded as practically independent of each other
front of the following vehicle’s reaching the same location. and can be investigated separately.
In the present study, the vehicles were recorded as soon as
the front axle passed the measurement site. Thus, the elapsed 3.3. Headway
time between the two front axles’ reaching the same location
is taken as approximation of time headway. For each measurement site and each direction, the per-
For the calculation of TTC another approximation had centage of measured time headways that were below 1, re-
to be made. According to Eq. (2), the numerator should be spectively 2 s, given all following vehicles, was calculated.
equal to the distance headway minus the length of the lead The results are presented in Fig. 2. The length of the black
vehicle, which is the distance gap between the two vehicles. field shows the percentage of time headways below 1 s, and
As distance headway was not directly available from the data the length of the gray field shows the percentage of time
in this study, it was derived from time headway and traveling headways between 1 and 2 s. The sum of the lengths of both
speed of the following vehicle, based on the assumption shows the percentage of time headways below 2 s (“percent-
that the vehicles traveled at a constant speed during the age scale” in lower left-hand corner), always given all fol-
measurement period. Vehicle length was approximated by lowing vehicles at the site in question.
adding 1.80 m to the axle distance of the lead vehicle. 1.80 m As can be seen in Fig. 2, the percentage of vehicles that
is equal to the average difference between vehicle length drive with a time headway below 2 s is relatively evenly dis-
and axle distance for passenger cars. It was felt that this tributed on the main road (30.3% on average, S.D. = 5.99).
approximation was acceptable, because 95% of all recorded The percentage of following vehicles traveling with a time
vehicles were passenger cars. However, no vehicle types headway below 1 s is on average 1.5% with a S.D. of 0.95.
were excluded from the analysis. There are no big differences between the direction towards
The denominator should be the relative speed between the the junction and the direction away from the junction. On
two vehicles at measurement time ti . It was approximated the subordinate road, on the other hand, more vehicles drive
by the difference between the speed of the following vehicle with a time headway below 2 s when they are on their way
at measurement time ti and the speed of the lead vehicle towards the junction. In general, the percentage of small
at measurement time ti−1 , with ti being the time when the headways is relatively similar on the corresponding sites. A
K. Vogel / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003) 427–433 431
Fig. 2. Percentage of vehicles with time headways smaller than 2 and 1 s, respectively, given all following vehicles, for each measurement site and each
direction. The “percentage scale” is indicated in the lower left-hand corner.
comparison of the sites close to the junction (both directions 3.4. Time to collision
on Main2 and Main3) with the sites further away from the
junction (both directions on all other sites) does not show TTC values are presented in a similar fashion in Fig. 3.
any noteworthy differences with respect to percentage of The length of the black rectangle indicates the percentage
small time headway values. of vehicles that had a TTC value of less than 1 s at this
Fig. 3. Percentage of vehicles with TTC values smaller than 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 s, given all following vehicles, for each measurement site and each direction.
The “percentage scale” is indicated in the lower left-hand corner.
432 K. Vogel / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003) 427–433
measurement site, based on all following vehicles. The discussed independently of each other in the following para-
length of the dark gray field indicates the percentage of graphs.
vehicles with TTC values between 1 and 2 s, and so on.
Large differences with respect to the percentage of small 4.2. Headway
TTC values can be found between the different measurement
sites. Generally, the sites closer to the junction have a higher At all sites on the main street the percentage of follow-
percentage of small TTC values, especially values below 1 s ing vehicles that drove with a headway of under 2 s was
occur almost only close to the junction. relatively similar at around 30%. This is an indication that
Visual inspection shows that most corresponding mea- drivers tend to choose a rather constant headway across sit-
surement sites have relatively similar percentages of small uations; they do not use longer headways in more complex
TTC values. The corresponding measurement sites Main3 situations. Instead, they reduce their speed when approach-
(towards the junction, split into two lanes) and Main2 (to- ing the junction (Vogel, 2001).
wards the junction) are an exception. Main2 has a much On the subordinate road, more small headways were mea-
larger percentage of small TTC values than Main3. More- sured on the way towards the junction than away from it. This
over, the percentage of small TTC values on Main2 is con- can be explained by the fact that “approaching a junction”
siderably larger than at any other site. is a very predictable situation. The stop signs or the already
waiting vehicles make clear that every driver has to reduce
3.5. Comment on the use of inferential statistics speed, hence, drivers expect to see the brake lights on the
vehicle ahead upon closing in on the junction. They are not
Due to the following reasons, no inferential tests were surprised and, therefore, do not brake hastily to increase the
performed to examine whether any of the observed differ- headway, instead they continue as usual and might even ac-
ences were statistically significant or not: (a) the number of cept a temporarily smaller headway before they also brake
measurement sites was small (15), (b) the percentage values for the stop sign. When heading away from the junction, on
for the different time boundaries (<1, 2 s, etc.) were not nor- the other hand, most drivers have only just finished acceler-
mally distributed and (c) variances were not homogeneous ating and have not yet “settled” at their preferred headway.
for any of the corresponding groups.
4.3. Time to collision