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MEMORANDUM

To: Interested Parties


From: Doug Burgum for North Dakota
Re: Burgum Dominant, Heitkamp Trails by 29%
Date: August 7, 2019

Methodology

1892 conducted a poll of 500 likely voters in North Dakota’s 2020 gubernatorial election
using live interviewers to a combination of cellphones and landlines from July 15-17,
2019. The margin of error corresponding to a 95 percent confidence interval is ±4.4%.

Highlighted Poll Results

Governor Burgum is exceptionally popular among likely 2020 voters in North Dakota.
While Trump leads Democrat frontrunner Joe Biden by 26% (60-34%), Burgum leads
former U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp by 29% (62-33%).

2020 North Dakota Poll Results – Ballots


75%
62% 60%

50%
33% 34%
25%

0%
Burgum vs. Heitkamp Trump vs. Biden
Republican Democrat

Governor Burgum’s ballot strength is built, in part, on his immense popularity with the
electorate. Governor Burgum’s image is among the most positive in the country, with
70% of North Dakota likely voters having a favorable impression of Burgum. 60% of
North Dakota voters view President Trump favorably.

Heitkamp is 11 points underwater and a majority of voters (52%) view her unfavorably.
With 93% of voters already holding an opinion about her, 60% of likely voters currently
view Heitkamp as a liberal.
2020 North Dakota Poll Results – Favorability Images
75% 70%
60%
52%
50% 41%
35%

25% 17%

0%
Burgum Image Trump Image Heitkamp Image
Favorable Unfavorable

Conversely, Governor Burgum’s favorability has unusual breadth in today’s highly


polarized political environment. Burgum is viewed favorably by 84% of self-identified
conservative voters, 71% of male voters, 70% of female voters, 68% of seniors, 65% of
young voters aged 18-to-34, and 44% of self-identified liberal voters.

Burgum’s popularity also spans North Dakota’s geographical areas, with nearly identical
numbers in the East and the West: 68% of voters in the Fargo media market have a
favorable impression of Burgum, and 73% of voters in the Minot media market have a
favorable impression of him.

Bottom Line

Governor Burgum is one of the most popular governors in America and has built a
strong foundation to be re-elected in 2020.

About 1892

1892 is a national opinion research and political consulting firm that has provided
counsel at the highest levels of American government and the political world. 1892 has
conducted surveys for senators, governors and candidates for President. In 2018 alone,
1892 polled for three successful campaigns for governor and helped elect the only
freshman female Republican to Congress. 1892 has conducted surveys for the National
Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the National Republican Congressional
Committee (NRCC), and the Republican Governors Association (RGA).

1892 has been part of multiple successful statewide campaigns in North Dakota,
including Governor Doug Burgum’s victory in 2016.