Double Degree MSc Programme

GEO-INFORMATION FOR SPATIAL PLANNING

AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
UGM
Graduate School Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Phone/Fax. (0274) 564239
Website http://www.geo.ugm.ac.id, www.geoinfopasca.ugm.ac.id and
http://www.itc.nl/pub/study/programmes/joint-educations

INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT

Hazard Modelling
Landslide Susceptability in Girimulyo, Kulon Progo
LECTURER:

Prof. Dr. Junun Sartohadi, M.Sc.

By:

DENI SAPUTRA

( 18 / 435077 / PMU / 0958 )

JULY 2019
A. BACKGROUND

The term landslide or, less frequently, landslip refers to several forms of mass
wasting that include a wide range of ground movements, such as rockfalls, deep-
seated slope failures, mudflows and debris flows. Landslides can occur underwater,
in which case they are called submarine landslides, and in coastal and onshore
environments. Although the action of gravity is the primary driving force for a
landslide to occur, there are other contributing factors affecting slope stability.
Landslides occur when the slope changes from a stable to an unstable condition. A
change in the stability of a slope can be caused by a number of factors, acting
together or alone. In this paper was to do a lanslide hazard modeling in Girimulyo
District, Kulon Progo by using stastical analysis. Girimulyo have the highest
ladnslide risk potential for building (Danang Sri Hadmoko et al. 2010).

The data used in this paper is partly real data and some are hypothetical data
The data given are:
1. Contur, processed into Slope
2. Point of rainfall , interpolated into rainfall map
3. Soil texture, classified into regosol, latusol dan grumusol

There are 270 point sampling that is presented

as a dependent variable (dependent variable),
then divided into 2 categories, namely occured
landslides and non landslides. A total of 115
samples were included in the occured landslide
category and the remaining 155 were
categorized as non landslides.

Sampling Points

Problems :
- Establishing slope raster, soil raster, and rainfall interpolation
- Susceptability Landslide modelling

B. Flow Chart and Methode

Observation point analysis on rainfall Value, Slope and Texture soil uses
multivariate analisys tool in ArcGIS, so that each sample point contains information
in the form of rainfall, slope and texture soil values. In the other side, the regression
analysis in Microsoft Exel so that the output of simple linear regression analysis is
obtained, followed below :

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0,520919414
R Square 0,271357036
Adjusted R Square 0,263139258
Standard Error 0,425255027
Observations 270

The table above explains the strength of the correlation between dependent
variables which are landslide events with independent variables namely slope, soil
texture and rainfall of 0,520919414 which means that the correlation is still low.
As much as 27,13% of independent variables (slope, texture soil and Rainfall)
influence in Denpendent Variable (landslide events) while the remaining 72,87%
probability of landslide events is influenced by external factors that are not
explained.
 Then ANOVA (analisys of Varian) table
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 17,91458951 5,971529838 33,02073177 3,55735E-18
Residual 266 48,10392901 0,180841838
Total 269 66,01851852

In the table above explains SS total there are 66.01 means that the value of the
variation of the occurrence of landslides is 66.01. Which causes variations in the
occurrence of landslides in addition to independent variable factors (Slope, soil
texture and Rainfall) of 17.91 is also influenced by other factors of 48.10 which are
not included in the (residual) model. Furthermore, the value of Significance F is
close to zero, which means the truth of the hypothesis is acceptable.

Then, last table

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

Intercept 1,695522433 0,261189202 6,49154874 4,141E-10 1,181261183 2,20978368 1,18126118 2,20978368

x1 [slope] 0,026081031 0,00327097 7,97348554 4,581E-14 0,019640746 0,03252132 0,01964075 0,03252132

x2 [rainfall] -0,002621328 0,000722576 -3,6277524 0,0003427 -0,00404402 -0,0011986 -0,004044 -0,0011986

x3 [soil] 0,195012631 0,056549626 3,44852201 0,0006551 0,083670809 0,30635445 0,08367081 0,30635445

(*) y = ax1 + bx2 + cx3 + d y : Probability Lanslide

x1 : Slope
x2 : Texture Soil
x3 : Rainfall
 C. Result

This investigate induced landslides on partially saturated soil slopes using the
occured landslides data at the Girimulyo District, Yogyakarta. An integrated
analysis of rainfall, slope, and soil type to become probability landslide was carried
out through numerical regretion analysis. The results of comprehensive
investigations in the Girimulyo District demonstrate that landslide might activity is
closely related primarily in order to Slope Geomerty, then soil properties, and then
rainfall as the last.

That means the biggest factor to determine the probability of Landslide is the Slope
then the smallest is a factor from Rainfall in this study area. It also shown in
Kayangan Catchment, that the most landslide occured on slope ranging 20-30°
(35%) (D S Hadmoko et al. 2009).

References
Hadmoko, D S et al. 2009. “GIS Application for Comprehensive Spatial Landslides
Analysis in Kayangan Catchment , Menoreh Mountains , Java , Indonesia.” International
conference - Landslide processes: from geomorphologic mapping to landslide modelling:
297–302.

Hadmoko, Danang Sri et al. 2010. “Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment and Their
Application in Risk Management and Landuse Planning in Eastern Flank of Menoreh
Mountains, Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia.” Natural Hazards 54(3): 623–42.