miles

años hectareas
2001 145

2002 104

2003 86
2004 80
2005 86
2006 79
2007 100
2008 84
2009 74
2010 62
2011 66
2012 48
2013 48
2014 69
2015 96

FACTORES QUE INCIDEN

1. ASEDIO DE LA FUERZA PUBLICA
2. EXPECTTIVA DE LOS
CULTIVADORES POR INCENTIVOS
DEL GOBIERNO
3. FUMIGACION AEREA

PROMEDIO MOVIL 3

3 0.2
2 0.3
1 0.5
Forecast Result for SES

10-15-2016 Actual Forecast by Forecast CFE MAD MSE

MONTH Data SES Error
1 39
2 38 43.98 -5.98 -5.98 5.98 35.7604
3 37 42.9634 -5.963398 -11.9434 5.971699 35.66125
4 40 41.94962 -1.949619 -13.89302 4.631006 25.04118
5 40 41.61818 -1.618183 -15.5112 3.8778 19.43551
6 45 41.34309 3.656906 -11.85429 3.833621 18.223
7 43 41.96477 1.035233 -10.81906 3.367223 15.36445
8 49 42.14076 6.859241 -3.95982 3.866083 19.89084
9 49 43.30683 5.693169 1.733349 4.094469 21.45601
10 54 44.27467 9.72533 11.45868 4.72012 29.58113
11 57 45.92797 11.07203 22.5307 5.35531 38.88199
12 50 47.81022 2.189781 24.72049 5.067535 35.78318
13 48.18248
PROMEDIO 43.7884992
PRONOSTICO
CFE 24.72049
MAD 5.067535
MSE 35.78318 ESE 5.98190438
MAPE 10.79444
ESE/PROM
Trk.Signal 4.878207 .-8%<ESE<8%
PRON

R-square 0.2156131 MAD/PRO

M PRON .-6%<MAD<6%
Alpha=0.17
F(0)=45
MAPE (%) Tracking R-square
Signal

15.73684 -1
15.92707 -2
12.24273 -3
10.19341 -4
9.780019 -3.092192 0.8643568
8.551269 -3.213052 0.5359738
9.329437 -1.024246 6.65E-02
9.615597 0.4233392 4.03E-02
10.54829 2.427624 8.74E-02
11.43593 4.20717 0.1642042
10.79444 4.878207 0.2156131

MIN -4
MAX 4.878207

GRADO DE DISPERSION
13.66% NO ES ACEPTABLE

EL GRADO DE PRESICION
11.57% NO ES ACEPTABLE