Ecological Indicators 103 (2019) 688–697

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Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Quantitative vulnerability assessment of water quality to extreme drought in T

a changing climate
⁎ ⁎
Jong-Suk Kima, Shaleen Jainb, , Joo-Heon Leec, , Hua Chena, Seo-Yeon Parkc
a
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, PR China
b
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469-5711, USA
c
Department of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University, KyungGi 10279, South Korea

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Projected changes in the global climate indicate warmer temperatures and a highly variable hydrologic cycle,
Meteorological drought portending significant societal effects, particularly those stemming from drought. Whereas the extent of drought-
Water quality related effects ranges from humans to environmental systems, the impacts on water quality, in particular, require
Kernel density estimation careful investigation. Such investigation should include the interlinkages across climate and stream quality
Risk assessment
variables and how risk translates for various watersheds, given their particularities with respect to land use,
watershed characteristics, and infrastructure. To this end, this study investigated drought assessment and the
water quality vulnerability to severe drought, with the goal of informing planning and mitigation as a means to
enhance drought resilience. This study was conducted in the Nakdong River basin in South Korea, which is
vulnerable to water quality degradation during severe drought. We propose a method to evaluate spatial-tem-
poral droughts based on the water quality risk and to monitor environmental droughts using the probability of
exceeding the target water quality to facilitate a resilient proactive response. The results of this study can be used
to provide scientific drought monitoring information for assessing real-time water quality monitoring from
meteorological drought information. In addition, we expect to categorize vulnerable drought areas and to
suggest essential management measures and tailored countermeasures at a local scale.

1. Introduction
Freshwater is essential for the sustenance of natural and human
systems. Clean water is an important determinant of ecosystem health
and, at the same time, is critical to humans from the standpoint of
hygiene and health (Meybeck, 2003; Corvalan et al., 2005; Vörösmarty,
2005; WWAP, 2009; Brooks et al., 2016; Fenner, 2017; Hellberg, 2017;
Hong et al., 2019). However, changes in water resources owing to
warming temperature and droughts tend to increase the impact of
pollutant loadings, thereby having compounding deleterious effects on
the quality of water and the aquatic ecosystems (Poff et al., 2002; Park
et al., 2010; Sjerps et al., 2017).
Droughts are one of the most expensive natural disasters with
lasting and wide-ranging effects on the environment, society, and the
economy (Eshghi and Larson, 2008; Apurv et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2017;
Lee et al., 2018; Park et al., 2018; Gao et al., 2019). Climate projections
indicate that future climate changes will probably not be uniform, and
regional variations in precipitation and warming temperatures will
exacerbate the potential for drought incidence and severity (Trenberth
et al., 2014; Lee et al., 2018). Furthermore, natural climatic variability,
for example stemming from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can
amplify hydroclimatic extremes (Mosley, 2015; Son et al., 2014; Kim
et al., 2016). Consequently, faced with water shortages, the quantifi-
cation of risks and the development of countermeasures to protect the
integrity between human and environmental systems are needed.
In what follows, we provide a limited review of recent studies fo-
cused on water quality, water resources vulnerability, and land-use
effects. Esquivel‐Hernández et al. (2018) developed approaches based
on multiple linear regression and cluster analysis to understand the
relative role of population size and hydrometeorological events as
drivers in water conflicts, specifically linked to floods, droughts, was-
tewater spills, and water pollution across Costa Rica. Ng et al. (2018)
used a multivariable linear model to assess the relative role of variables
such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand
(COD), and total suspended solids toward water quality deterioration
based on a water quality index applied to the Kampar River Basin in

⁎
Corresponding authors at: Department of Civil Engineering, Drought Research Center, Joongbu University, Gyeunggi-do 10279, Republic of Korea (J.-H. Lee) and
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469-5711, USA (S. Jain).
E-mail addresses: shaleen.jain@maine.edu (S. Jain), leejh@joongbu.ac.kr (J.-H. Lee).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.04.052
Received 9 December 2018; Received in revised form 5 March 2019; Accepted 15 April 2019
Available online 25 April 2019
1470-160X/ © 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
J.-S. Kim, et al.
Malaysia. Furthermore, their study integrated an El Niño event, which
caused an extreme drought and watershed stress. Monica and Choi
(2016) applied multivariate statistical methods (discriminant, cluster,
and principal component analyses) to identify suspended solids and
total phosphorus, which are critical watershed response variables that
influence changes in BOD and COD in the Saemangeum watershed,
South Korea. Kükrer and Mutlu (2019) used a one-year long record of
28 water quality relevant variables for the Saraydüzü Dam Lake in
Turkey to assess the water quality and the relative importance of
measured variables for ecosystem health. Their analysis and risk as-
sessment were based on multivariate cluster and factor analysis ap-
proaches, as well as cross-correlation.
Wang et al. (2012) developed a water resources vulnerability ap-
proach, focused on both water quality and quantity issues, based on a
parametric-system (PS) method. Their approach involves the Analytical
Hierarchy Process to determine the relative weights of the indices
considered (including drought and pollution indices). The study con-
tends that the PS method is more general than the existing Fuzzy Op-
timization and Gray Relational Analysis approaches that only allow for
rank analyses and qualitative level classification, respectively. Jun et al.
(2011) used a multi-attribute method of decision analysis, coupled with
future climate scenarios and watershed modeling, to assess hydrologic
vulnerability in four dimensions: floods, droughts, water quality, and
watershed risk. Chanat and Yang (2018) applied a seven-parameter
spatiotemporal watershed accumulation of net effects model to in-
vestigate the changes in nitrogen loadings across four sites in the
Chesapeake watershed (USA). Their modeling work indicated that in-
creases in nitrogen loadings stem from urban and suburban develop-
ment, with changes in temperature and precipitation being the com-
pounding meteorological variables.
The current study was conducted in the Nakdong River basin in
South Korea, which is vulnerable to water quality degradation during
severe droughts. We present a quantitative assessment method for
water quality monitoring by applying nonparametric kernel density
estimation (KDE). The KDE-based approach is used to quantify the
drought impacts on water quality indicators and to diagnose water
quality risk (WQR) by target basin to identify hotspots–areas vulnerable
to extreme droughts. The WQR information can be provided to water
managers and decision-makers for planning and decision-making linked
to sustainable water resources management. In addition, this study
seeks to inform efforts towards appropriate water quality management
measures and facilitate resilient drought adaptation at local and re-
gional scales.
2. Material and methods
The Korean Nakdong River basin (KNRB) is selected for demon-
strating the applicability of our proposed approach. Despite the im-
portance of drinking water sources to more than 15 million people in
the river basin, the water quality has deteriorated, even after comple-
tion of the four-river restoration project, and for many years, the river
basin has suffered serious damage to downstream water quality (Yoon
et al., 2015). In this study, water quality in 22 sub-basins of the Nak-
dong River were evaluated to assess the vulnerability to extreme
droughts (Fig. 1).
The hydrometeorological data used in this study were obtained from
the 60 stations in the Automatic Synoptic Observation System, com-
prising daily rainfall data collected between 1976 and 2016 by the
Korean Meteorological Administration. Streamflow and dam water in-
formation was provided by the Korean Water Management Information
System (WAMIS, 2017). Water quality vulnerability was assessed using
the 10-year record from the water monitoring network (2007–2016),
provided by the Water Information System (WIS, 2017). In particular,
the water quality framework proposed by the Evaluation Regulations for
Water Quality and Aquatic Ecosystem Targets (Ministry of Environment,
South Korea) was used as the reference target criteria in our analyses.
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Ecological Indicators 103 (2019) 688–697
Furthermore, we employed the Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI), which is used commonly in South Korea for drought assessment
(Kim et al., 2017). The SPI meteorological drought index (McKee et al.,
1993) was applied over various periods (30 days [30D], 60 days [60D],
90 days [90D], and 180 days [180D]). The water quality indicators used
in this study included dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen de-
mand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), chlorophyll-a con-
centration, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP).
2.1. Meteorological drought index
In this study, to investigate drought variability, we applied the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which was developed by McKee
et al. (1993), and is used widely as a meteorological drought index. The
standardization process of SPI is independent of geographic location
and is spatially comparable (Cacciamani et al., 2007). Currently, more
than 40 countries, including Korea, use the SPI to make preparations for
drought. Compared with the relative water demands used in drought
indices, SPI, a supply-side metric, focuses on the fact that droughts
entail reduced precipitation, which causes water shortages (Gao et al.,
2019). The calculation of the SPI index for each station is based only on
historical precipitation records accumulated over a specific time period.
These time-series precipitation data are applied to the gamma dis-
tribution, which is subsequently transformed into a standard normal
distribution through equal probability transformation (Guttman, 1999).
Positive SPIs represent wetter conditions than the climatology mean of
precipitation and negative SPIs represent drier conditions.
The gamma distribution best models the observed precipitation data
in most instances because precipitation generally shows a skewed dis-
tribution (Bordi and Sutera, 2007). The density probability function of
the Gamma distribution is given by Eq. (1).
1
g(x) = x α − 1e−x β , for x > 0,
β α Γ(α ) (1)
where the shape parameter α > 0 and the scale parameter β > 0, and
the precipitation x > 0. Γ(α) is the gamma function defined by the
integral (Eq. (2)):
∞
Γ(α ) = ∫0 y α − 1e−ydy (2)
Gamma functions are evaluated numerically or by using the α value
of the table. To model precipitation data as a density function of the
gamma distribution, α and β should be estimated appropriately. There
are many ways to estimate shape and scale parameters. For example,
the method introduced by Thom (1958) was adopted by Edwards and
McKee (1997).
−
1 ⎛ 4A ⎞  x
â= ⎜1 + 1+ ⎟, β =
4A ⎝ 3 ⎠ α̂ (3)
where for n observations
− ∑ ln(x )
A = ln(x ) −
n (4)
Using α and β, the density probability function g (x) for a given
amount of a given month can be integrated for x and the cumulative
probability G (x) and a specific time scale can be obtained (Eq. (5)):
x 1 x
G(x) = ∫0 g (x ) dx =
β Γ(a )̂
= ∫0 x α −̂ 1e−x βdx
(5)
The gamma function requires x > 0. As the precipitation could be
zero, the cumulative probability is Eq. (6):
H(x) = q + (1 − q) G (x ), (6)
where q is the probability of no rain and H (x) represents the cumula-
tive probability of the recorded precipitation.
The cumulative probability is converted to a standardized normal
J.-S. Kim, et al. Ecological Indicators 103 (2019) 688–697

Fig. 1. The study area of the Korean Nakdong River basin. In this figure, the numbers represent the basin identification number for 22 sub-basins in the Nakdong
River basin.

distribution to obtain the SPI. However, the method is numerically  1 n 1 n WQ − WQi

complex when too many stations are involved. An alternative approach
fh (WQ) =
n
∑i =1 Kh (WQ − WQi) = nh
∑i =1 K ⎛ h
⎞,
(9)
⎝ ⎠
using approximate transformation techniques to convert the cumulative
where K is the kernel function and h is the bandwidth, Kh is the scaled
probability to a standard variable Z was developed by Edwards and
McKee (1997).
1 WQ
( )
kernel and is defined as Kh (WQ) = h K h . The choice of the band-
width (h) was evaluated using the following simple optimal formula

SPI = Z =
⎧− t −
⎪ ( c 0 + c1 t + c 2 t 2
1 + d1 t + d2 t 2 + d3 t 3 ), for 0 < H (x ) ≤ 0.5, (Eq. (10)):
1 (p + 4)
⎨ 4
⎪+ t −
⎩
( c 0 + c1 t + c 2 t 2
1 + d1 t + d2 t 2 + d3 t 3 ), for 0.5 < H (x) < 1,
(7)
hi = ⎧
⎨
⎫
⎩ (p + 2) n ⎬
⎭
σi ̂
(10)
where where p denotes the number of dimensions, hi denotes the optimal
smoothing parameter, and σi ̂ is the standard deviation in dimension i .
⎧ ln ⎡ 1 ⎤, for 0 < H (x) ≤ 0.5, When Gaussian basis functions are used to approximate univariate data,
⎪ ⎣ (H (x ))2 ⎦
t= the optimal choice for h (i.e., the bandwidth that minimizes the mean
⎨ 1
⎪ ln ⎡ (1 − H (x ))2 ⎤, for 0.5 < H (x ) < 1, square error) is expressed as Eq. (11):
⎩ ⎣ ⎦ (8)
1
4σ ̂ ⎫
5 5
h=⎧ ≈ 1.06σn̂ −1 5,
⎨
⎩ 3n ⎬ ⎭ (11)
2.2. Nonparametric kernel density estimation
where σ ̂ is the standard deviation of the samples.
The drought classification criteria and the drought stage impact The WQR can be defined as the ratio of conditional extreme drought
factors proposed by the US Drought Mitigation Center (USDMC, 2017) probability (DI) to unconditional exceedance probability, using the KDE
were applied to differentiate between severe drought and extreme approach for each water quality (WQ) indicator and target criterion
drought. The characteristics of water quality and the aquatic ecosystem (Eq. (12)).
were analyzed considering these drought classification criteria. KDE is a P (WQ ≥ WQcriteria DI ≤DIcriteria )
representative nonparametric method to estimate the probability den- WQR = ,
P (WQ ≥ WQcriteria ) (12)
sity function (PDF) of random variables based on finite data samples
(Bowman and Azzalini, 1997). We applied KDE to estimate the ex- where WQ is the water quality index, WQcriteria is the target water
ceedance probability of each water quality (WQ) indicator on the target quality standard, DI is the drought index, and DIcriteria is extreme
water quality (Eq. (9)). drought conditions. This approach follows a past study of the multi-

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centennial drought variations in the northeastern United States (Gupta
et al., 2011), however no water quality variables were integrated in that
study.
In this study, WQR was proposed to assess the vulnerability of water
to extreme drought conditions (SPI < −1.2 and SPI < −1.5 for dif-
ferent drought durations). The drought index is estimated on a daily
basis for each drought duration (30 days, 60 days, and 90 days) using
rainfall data from 1976 to 2016. To assess the relationship between
drought statistics and episodic water quality events, we applied the
rank-based approach. Different drought durations, which are ranked by
magnitude of SPI according to dry (SPI < −1.2) and wet (SPI > 1.2)
conditions are shown below, followed by the observed water quality
events during the period 2007–2016. Through analysis of the rank, it is
possible to determine the sensitivity of water quality to wet and dry
conditions in a certain river basin.
3. Analysis results
3.1. Historical droughts in the KNRB
Drought characteristics such as duration, magnitude, and the se-
verity of drought events that occurred in the past were analyzed using
the SPI index, and drought frequency analysis was performed to in-
vestigate historical droughts quantitatively. Fig. 2 shows the time his-
tory of SPI for the KNRB. The most severe drought year in the KNRB
was 1988, with magnitude −15.5, duration of 11 months, average se-
verity of −1.4, and a return period of 100 years. The significant
drought years in the KNRB are 1968, 1982, 2014, 1996, 2001, 2009,
and 2015, and the return period is 10–50 years. As regards meteor-
ological drought in the 1960s, the years 1967 and 1968 are drought
years. In 1968, the drought magnitude was −13.6, the duration was
11 months, and the average severity was −1.2. On the other hand, a
drought of more than two years was evaluated as long-term drought
from 1967 to 1968, 1976 to 1977, and 1994 to 1996 in the KNRB. In the
following section, we discuss analyzing water quality changes attribu-
table to extreme droughts.
Fig. 2. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Nakdong River Basin over long time-scales. The values (above 2 or below −2) indicate extreme wetness or
dryness compared to normal condition in that region.
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3.2. Analysis of water quality characteristics for extreme drought conditions
To analyze the water quality change based on the duration of a
drought, we analyzed the risk for deleterious changes in the water
quality standards of BOD and TP, related to the severe drought and
extreme drought thresholds. Fig. 3 shows an example of applying the
target water quality standards for BOD and TP in the Nam River basin.
The figure indicates the instances where the water quality exceeded the
target criteria for the different SPI periods (30 days [30D], 60 days
[60D]). Different symbols indicate the instances where only BOD is
exceeded, only TP is exceeded, and both BOD and TP exceed the target
water quality (BOD: 2 mg/L, TP: 0.04 mg/L) in the basin. Applying the
SPI30D for the period 2007–2016, the water quality data showed that
severe drought threshold was crossed 53 times, and extreme drought
threshold 23 times on a daily time scale. The water quality target of the
Nam River basin is based on second-grade (lb), BOD 2.0 mg/L, and TP
0.04 mg/L, and 94.3% in severe drought and 91.3% in extreme drought,
exceeding the BOD and TP standards. This tendency was similar for the
60D and 90D drought periods.
Fig. 4 shows the results of the sensitivity of the water quality indices
to drought statistics. Rank analysis, shown in Fig. 4a and b, was per-
formed to assess the effects of extreme drought on the water quality.
Sensitivity to drought and the achievement of the target water quality
were also evaluated. In the figures, the data were arranged by the
SPI30D index for dry/wet conditions. The two drought indices (SPI60D,
SPI90D) are shown below, followed by the water quality indices (BOD
and TP). The data exceeding each reference criteria are shaded in gray.
The percentile values noted in the upper panels are the probability of
exceeding the water quality (PEWQ) for the target criteria (BOD: 2 mg/
L, TP: 0.04 mg/L) in the Nam River basin (sub-basin ID: 2019). In this
basin, the water quality was shown to be deteriorating as the drought
progressed. The wet condition showed a noticeable improvement in
water quality for BOD compared with the drought condition, and TP
improved slightly but still exceeded the target water quality. The eva-
luation results of the target water quality exceeding the dry/wet con-
ditions for the 22 sub-basins are shown in Fig. 4c and d. The analysis
J.-S. Kim, et al.
Fig. 3. Drought occurrence and target water quality for the Nam River basin (sub-basin ID: 2019) for the period 2007–2016. For each figure, circular plot shows the
seasonality of water quality events that exceed the local target water quality for two drought durations (30 days and 60 days). In times from drought thresholds were
crossed, water quality events exceeding the standards of BOD and TP are represented by different symbols. In each figure, the 3 o’clock direction indicates the start
time of January 1, and the calendar dates are displayed clockwise.
results show that BOD had a negative relationship with the SPI drought
index, and the water quality in the lower stream of the Nakdong River
tended to deteriorate when drought occurred relatively more frequently
in the other sub-basins. However, for TP, the relationship with the
drought index was unclear.
3.3. Environmental risk assessment for extreme drought conditions
Fig. 5 shows an example of WQR analysis for droughts by applying
the target water quality standards (BOD: 2 mg/L) of the Nam River
basin based on BOD data for the 2007–2016 period. The conditional
(unconditional) probability distribution using the KDE for the target
water quality in the Nam River basin is shaded in red (gray). The
contour lines in the joint probability distribution were plotted for se-
lected quantile levels (0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 0.9). The results of the
analysis show that the WQRBOD is 1.24, which is a moderately elevated,
yet not a significant risk; however, careful management of the water
quality is warranted.
Fig. 6 shows the results of the WQR analysis using BOD and TP data
for each of the 22 sub-basins. The spatial distribution on the left of each
figure shows the WQR result of applying extreme drought conditions
(SPI30D < −1.2 and SPI30D < −1.5). The results of using the dif-
ferent SPI periods (30 days [30D], 60 days [60D], and 90 days [90D])
shown on the right of each figure are summarized in the violin plot,
which is a combination of boxplot and kernel density plot. As regards
BOD, WQR was higher than 1 in many basins, but the spatial con-
herence was not significant. However, regarding TP, WQR varied con-
siderably depending on the basin. As the severity of drought increased,
the spatial variation also increased relatively. As regards severe
drought, the basins showing WQR of 2.0 or higher (exceptionally high)
for BOD were the Imha Dam and Hapcheon Dam basins, with SPI30D
and SPI60D showing WQR of 2.21 and 2.25, respectively, relatively
higher than those of the other basins. For extreme drought, the Imha
Dam and Hapcheon Dam basins showed exceptionally high WQR
(> 2.0). The Nakdong, Goryeong, and Hapchon basins showed rela-
tively higher WQR related to drought in terms of TP.
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Ecological Indicators 103 (2019) 688–697
Fig. 7 shows an example of environmental drought risk assessment
and environmental drought monitoring linked to water quality in-
dicators. This was employed in the Andong Dam, Young River, Geumho
River, Hwuang River, and Nam River basin, which are located in the
upper, middle, and downstream of the Nakdong River. Scatter plots of
BOD and TP data in the middle panel of each figure show the magni-
tude of the SPI indicator, with the red color indicating negative values
and the blue positive values. The contour lines (10th, lower quartile,
median, upper quartile, and 90th levels are shown) in the joint prob-
ability distribution were plotted using a threshold of SPI below −1.2.
The probability distributions of the BOD and TP values are shown at the
top and right panels of each figure, and the conditional probability and
unconditional probability distribution for the target water quality in
each sub-basin are shaded in red and gray. The WQR analysis results
and the PEWQ for both BOD and TP water quality data are expressed in
numerical values in the figures, respectively. The Andong Dam basin,
where a first-grade (Ia) target water quality standard was applied,
showed the lowest WQR among the five pilot sub-basins. The analysis
results showed that the WQR was 1.074 based on BOD and 0.946 based
on TP. The basins with a high risk to environmental drought were
analyzed, which are the Hwuang River basin (WQRBOD = 1.033,
WQRTP = 1.020), Young River basin (WQRBOD = 1.154,
WQRTP = 1.095), and Nam River basin (WQRBOD = 1.240,
WQRTP = 1.085).
Among the five pilot basins, the highest risk to environmental
droughts was found in the Geumho River basin (WQRBOD = 1.306,
WQRTP = 1.156), which, compared with the other basins, was subject
to extreme drought. In the Geumho River basin, the probability of ex-
ceeding the BOD target water quality standard was 73.7%
(SPI < −1.2), and the probability of exceeding the TP target water
quality was 90.5% (SPI < −1.2). The Nam River basin, located
downstream of the Nakdong River, was also indicated as an area rela-
tively vulnerable to drought. As a direct result of the effects of the
mainstream of the Nakdong River, changes in the water quality char-
acteristics occurred at the end of the basin. The probability of exceeding
the BOD target water quality was 78.2% (SPI < −1.2) and the
J.-S. Kim, et al. Ecological Indicators 103 (2019) 688–697

Fig. 4. Drought statistics and water quality indices during the period 2007–2016. a. Rank analysis according to the dry condition (SPI < −1.2) for the Nam River
basin (sub-basin ID: 2019). b. Rank analysis according to the wet condition (SPI > 1.2) for the Nam River basin (sub-basin ID: 2019). The results of the PEWQ using
the target water quality grades of each of the 22 sub-basins of the Nakdong River basin are shown spatially in the lower panel.

probability of exceeding the TP target water quality was 89.6%
(SPI < −1.2). Therefore, for this basin, the target water quality grade
must be adjusted from Level 2 (Ib) to Level 3 (II) or, alternatively,
additional water quality management measures should be established.
4. Discussion
Projected changes in the global climate indicate warmer tempera-
tures and a highly variable hydrologic cycle, portend significant societal
effects, particularly those stemming from drought. Whereas the extent
of drought-related effects ranges from humans to environmental sys-
tems, the impacts on water quality, in particular, require careful in-
vestigation. Such investigation should include the interlinkages across
climate and stream quality variables and how risk translates for various
watersheds, given their particularities with respect to land use, wa-
tershed characteristics, and infrastructure.
Recent studies on water quality have been conducted with a focus
on the identification of important watershed variables that modulate
stream water quality, as well as the role of weather and climate vari-
ables. From a methodological standpoint, four major types of ap-
proaches are commonly pursued in the published literature: (a) mul-
tiple linear regression (Esquivel‐Hernández et al., 2018; Ng et al.,
2018), (b) multivariate statistical methods (Monica and Choi, 2016;
Kükrer and Mutlu, 2019), (c) decision analysis (Jun et al., 2011; Wang
et al., 2012), and (d) interlinked process and statistical models (Chanat
and Yang, 2018). As the frequency and severity of droughts because of
climate change are likely to increase, understanding the interlinked
nature of the effects on human–environmental systems is critical for
adaptation to the expected conditions (Mortazavi-Naeini et al., 2015;
Svoboda et al., 2015). However, despite many studies on drought and
water quality, little attention has been paid to the development of
methodologies that quantitatively assess the environmental drought
risk related to the significant impact of drought on both humans and the
environment. This is related in particular to the existence of thresholds
over or below which there is a dramatic escalation of effects, some of
which could be irreversible. It is also essential to distinguish between
areas that are affected significantly by water quality and aquatic pat-
terns when droughts occur, and areas that can maintain some level of
resilience during droughts. To this end, this study investigated drought
assessment and the vulnerability of water quality to severe drought,
with the goal of informing planning and mitigation as a means to en-
hance drought resilience.
Monica and Choi (2016) argued that TP and suspended solids (SS)
are critical variables affecting BOD changes in the Saemangeum wa-
tershed, South Korea because the chemical composition of pollutants
could be changed due to temporal variations in water pollutants. In this

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Fig. 5. Example of water quality risk (WQR) analysis for droughts by applying
the target water quality standard (BOD: 2 mg/L) to the Nam River basin (sub-
basin ID: 2019) for the period 2007–2016. a. Empirical probability distribution
functions (PDF). b. Joint probability distribution function (PDF) using the
kernel approach. Here, the conditional PDF represents the excess probability of
BOD data exceeding the target water quality (BOD: 2 mg/L) in an instance of
drought (SPI < −1.2).
study, the results of Fig. 3 illustrated in the circular plot showed that
both TP and BOD were relatively high, especially during the winter
months (January-February) and early summer (June-July) that was
Fig. 6. Water quality risk (WQR) analysis using BOD and TP data in the Nakdong River basin for the period 2007–2016. a. WQRBOD. b. WQRTP. The spatial
distribution on the left of each figure shows the WQR result of applying extreme drought conditions (SPI30D < −1.2 and SPI30D < −1.5).
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Ecological Indicators 103 (2019) 688–697
consistent with Monica and Choi (2016). These results are evident in
shorter drought periods (SPI30D).
The current study proposes a KDE-based approach to evaluate spa-
tial-temporal droughts based on the WQR and to monitor environ-
mental droughts using the probability of exceeding the target water
quality to facilitate a resilient proactive response. A WQR of 1 indicates
no specific change in the risk of water quality relative to extreme
drought, whereas a WQR of greater than 1 indicates that the water
quality at the point and the basin is deteriorating. During drought, it
would be necessary to separate and manage the sub-basins that show
water quality decline compared with those that show smaller changes
in risk. The KDE-based approach was applied for the Nakdong River
basin in South Korea, which is vulnerable to water quality degradation
during severe droughts. The analysis results were shown in Figs. 4–7.
Among the five pilot basins located in the upper, middle, and down-
stream of the Nakdong River (Young River, Andong Dam, Hwuang
River, Geumho River, Nam River basins), the highest WQR was at the
Geumho River basin (WQRBOD = 1.306, WQRTP = 1.156), which suf-
fered severe drought compared with the other basins. In the Geumho
River basin, the water quality standards for BOD exceeded 73.7%
(SPI < −1.2), and the TP target water quality exceeded 90.5%
(SPI < −1.2).
With regard to the potential increase in water pollutants, Kim et al.
(2015) noted that large-scale industrial estates are located in the middle
of the NRB, and contaminants are emitted from wastewater treatment
plants. High-concentration pollutants in the middle river basins often
flow downstream, leading to a decline in water quality. Therefore, these
potential water contaminants may also be reflected in the WQR analysis
results for mid- and downstream areas. Furthermore, the development
of the Geumho River basin (sub-basin ID: 2012), which began in the
late 2000s, reflects the result of a large number of apartment complexes
being built and the resulting in a gradual increase in the population.
The reason for the failure of the management of the water pollution
load is because the target water quality standards failed to keep up with
the pace of local development. Most of the pollutants loadings in the
Geumho River are municipal and industrial effluents from Daegu,
J.-S. Kim, et al.
Fig. 7. Environmental drought risk assessment and environmental drought monitoring linked to water quality. This is similar to Fig. 2, but the joint probability
distributions of BOD and TP data for different sub-basins are located in the upper, middle, and downstream of the Nakdong River: a. Young River basin, b. Andong
Dam basin, c. Hwuang River basin, d. Nam River basin, e. Geumho River basin.
making it difficult to meet the target water quality goal. However, with
the recent establishment of an advanced sewage treatment plant, the
water quality in the Geumho River is expected to improved sig-
nificantly.
The Nam River basin (sub-basin ID: 2019), located downstream of
the Nakdong River, was also appeared to be an area relatively vulner-
able to drought (WQRBOD = 1.240, WQRTP = 1.085). As a direct result
of the effects of the mainstream of the Nakdong River, changes in the
water quality characteristics occurred at the end of the basin. The
probability of exceeding the BOD target water quality was 78.2%
(SPI < −1.2) and the probability of exceeding the TP target water
quality was 89.6% (SPI < −1.2). Therefore, it is necessary to adjust
the target water quality grade to this basin or establish additional water
quality management measures. For this basin, the policy framework
proposed by Yoon et al. (2015) can be applied to downstream water
quality management by considering three alternatives including up-
stream water treatment, expanding dam discharge, and developing new
water sources, in order to achieve the target of water quality level. The
upstream water treatment is to cut off incoming pollutants directly,
minimizing the downstream impact. It is an advantageous method
when the reliability of water quality is of primary concern. Dam dis-
charge is the most flexible tool and can be used strategically during the
low flow season. Instead of considering building a new reservoir at a
high cost, utilizing existing reservoirs and developing waterways could
also be a useful policy measure in the Nam River basin.
The approach proposed in this study can be used to inform the
potential risk for water quality declines based on meteorological
drought information. Localized estimates of vulnerable drought areas
695
Ecological Indicators 103 (2019) 688–697
and appropriates management measures and tailored countermeasures
are likely to also be informed by results from the approach presented
here. The KDE-based WQR assessment method is very flexible, as it
accommodates linear and nonlinear relationships with ease. In addition
to BOD and TP standards, the proposed approach can be applied to
other water quality standards, such as DO, COD, and chlorophyll-a, and
to other drought indices, including meteorological droughts, hydro-
logical droughts, and agricultural droughts, to quantify the drought-
related changes in water quality parameters to inform planning and
decision-making.
5. Summary and conclusions
This study proposed an environmental drought monitoring method
by applying the WQR index and the probability of exceeding the water
quality standard based on the non-parametric KDE. Our primary results
are summarized as follows:
1. The analysis indicated a statistically significant relationship be-
tween drought indices and water quality variables, such as BOD,
COD, chlorophyll-a, and TP.
2. The results of the WQR analysis of the basins of the Nakdong River
are shown according to the duration and severity of droughts. As
regards BOD, the WQR was high for extreme drought, but the spatial
variation was not significant. However, regarding TP, the WQR was
found to vary significantly depending on the basins, and it was
shown that the spatial change increased relatively as the severity of
the drought increased.
J.-S. Kim, et al.
3. Under severe drought conditions, the WQR of TP was relatively high
in the Nakdong River, Goryeong, and Hapcheon basins.
Furthermore, the WQR of BOD was exceptionally high in the Imha
Dam and Daecheon Dam basins in conditions of extreme drought.
The longer the duration of the drought, the higher was the WQR
compared with the other watersheds.
4. This diagnostic study and assessment confirmed that the WQR and
PEWQ methods, applying the KDE to the Nakdong River basin in
Korea, could be an evaluation method to monitor quantitative
changes in water quality in relation to drought conditions. We ex-
pect to be able to provide useful information to establish appro-
priate water quality management measures to facilitate resilient
drought measurements at local and regional scales.
In closing, we proposed a probabilistic water quality monitoring
method conditioned on the Standardized Precipitation Index, a re-
presentative meteorological drought index indicative of seasonal and
longer climatic variations. Interlinked variations in climate and water
quality offer critically important information watershed-scale drought
vulnerability and impacts. The approach presented here affords quan-
titative assessment of risk for water quality declines that have im-
portant implications for human and ecological systems.
Finally, in a changing climate, changes in drought frequency and
severity remain critical concerns. Our work provides a quantitative
approach to link climatic changes to water quality vulnerability.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Basic Science Research Program
through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by
the Ministry of Education (NRF-20171R1D1A1A02018546) and the
Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) grant
funded by the Ministry of Environment (Grant 18AWMP-B079625-05).
The authors are grateful for the editor and two anonymous reviewers’
insightful comments, and also allowing us to improve this manuscript
significantly.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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